Bitcoin Forum

During my Free time, I like to look at bitcoin chart and compare the current situation to the past, I sometimes stumble upon some very interesting similarities, some make sense, some don't , but they all are worth sharing.

These similarities tend to work more often than not , for example, back in Dec 2018 , i made this thread


ichimoku cloud says 3100$ is the cheapest bitcoin will ever be (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5087271.msg48771362#msg48771362)

a while later I made another one

Bitcoin bottom could be around the corner ! interesting chart ! (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5084972.msg48670288#msg48670288)


Since those were not satisfying enough , I went ahead and dug a little deeper , and came up with this.

Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5088650.msg48842410#msg48842410)


Recently , I started this thread

The king is about to wake up. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5186004.msg52500807#msg52500807)

Explaining how were we suppose to test the 20SMA weekly , well sadly the prediction of that movement was terrible, it went way too far than what I initially thought it would go, this goes out to show that nothing is 100% accurate, but as mentioned before, happens more often than not!.


This time , i zoomed out a little, used the monthly chart, and used only fibonacci retracement since we are in a "supposedly" a correction wave, it makes sense to understand how low can we go ,and what's next !


https://i.imgur.com/GgupAi8.png

Since the start of Bitcoin market,we had only 2 major bull trends (nearly 2 years long) and 2 bear markets (nearly a year long)

In this chart I am interested in how does each bull trend starts, assuming ofcourse that we are now in the 3rd bull move which suppose to last about 2 years , we are nearly a year in now.

by drawing the Fib from the bottom to the top of each bull market, we get some interesting facts.

1-A correction all the way down below that 0.786 (blue)  > Done
2-A rejection from the 0.618 > Skipped
3-A rejection from the 0.382 (14k) > Done
4-A retest of the 0.618  at around 7700$ > still confirming.... Done
5-A retest of the 0.5 level (9900$)  > unknown but must happen this month  Done
6-A steady move to ATL ATH in 5 months > unknown


This is how I think the market is going to play out for the a few coming months , but notice that this is only the real big picture of the market and not suitable for short term plans/trades.

My short term analysis can be found here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5186004.msg52599392#msg52599392) ,  not recommended to moon and lambo boys with soft hearts.  ;D


Good luck.

I believe we will touch 20k before halving but fail to break it until after. This is in line with my belief.

This is great analysis mate, worthy of a merit. I've always been interested in technical analysis, but a lot of the articles I've seen are purely based on speculation. I can actually see the trends and your estimations do actually make sense here.

I've always personally been under the impression that history often repeats itself and this entire technical analysis goes hand in hand with that view.

Great work. Hope to see more threads from you mate.

Thanks a lot @mikeywith for taking the time to post this amazing analysis here. I am not actually technically-gifted person but your post seems easy to catch up. I am expecting that by next month Bitcoin can try to break the $9900 level and from thereon until the end of December we can be moving sideways. Do you think that can be possible based on your charts?

20 thousand dollars by march only looking at charts look to be a weird. I mean I would agree but I would agree because of the may halving that would have value outside of charts we can't read. After all, the amount of printed coins everyday will drop from 1800 to 900 which should have some sort of "lack of sales" type of issue for the sellers (literally 900 bitcoins less sold which is around 8 million dollars A DAY) but none of this can be found on charts, it is not in any indicator neither, it is just a sentiment from all of us and a common sense that combines all information together and say "if there will be less coins sold, then there will be a higher price".

Maybe we are wrong, maybe it won't happen but I would agree with your prediction with all the info I have outside of charts.

Bitcoin believes will bring positive analysis. :)

I am also looking for the price increase before the halvening not sure it will break 20K or not but it will bring some bump to make the investors to be convinced again to invest.

What about the TA for December 2019,we are going to move down again?

I'm glad to see you came around to the bull side. You seemed really bearish a week ago.

In conventional terms this bounce off $7,700 would be seen as a shorting opportunity, but old hands know the bottom may already be in. In terms of momentum, volume, and sentiment I see lots of parallels to the July 2013 bottom.

Actually wasn't such a bad read at all, OP.

Interesting that you thought the bull market lasted a year (and that you're assuming this is also another bull). I don't disagree with the facts, that Bitcoin is still almost 200% up from its low of this year, but I see any unsuccessful climb back to ATH (that's what you meant with ATL, right?) as part and parcel of the pullback-recovery cycle that forms the pre-bull consolidation phase.

9900 must happen this month -- I agree, else we'll say hello to 6k again.

Good chart in my opinion 2020 will surely have a chance in making year seems to go another fly to the moon movement and this year is trying to ready us in another bullish run, If the $9900 USD would happen this Month maybe that will be a positive sign for us to really ready for another All-time high this coming March, But even though I like a more positive call on this it may land to March or even the  following month of April but I must say nice analysis I am seeing that chart to make another comparison with the previews one and I think we can surely see it getting near.

From your charting analysis the price of bitcoin is in an uptrend with the price breaking the resistance at $13K while the price retrace back to the resistance turned support thus sustaining the momentum until it reaches $20K well based on your Technical analysis there are a lot of resistance which the price has to break to attain the price mark with SEC approval of bitcoin then the price will have a smooth ride to $20K how soon is a question that isn't easy to answer.

Well some analyst just stated  that Bitcoin moving to $9000 is confirmed, At the latest comment here : https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ATWYWJch-Bitcoin-Changes-Sentimient-Bullish-Or-Bearish-Now-Altcoins/

https://s3.tradingview.com/a/A7Rq8k8D_big.png



so we just need another $900  to confirm the next scenario.

$20k on March is quite feasible with halving and Fomo, but these prediction https://cointelegraph.com/news/tom-lee-predicts-bitcoin-to-reach-91000-by-march-2020-based-on-performances-after-past-dips, is quite unrealistic lol.

I have been always on the bull side as far as the large picture is concerned, in fact I have more interest towards price going up, I just like to keep a neutral look when comes to day trading, my last week bearish look is still there, the current/short term is in fact still bearish, we are still trading below the 20SMA on the weekly and we had a the 5SMA crossing below it as well, which means 8900$ (5sma) and 9900$ (20SMA) are not bad positions for shorting at all, but given the fact that the overall picture is somehow bullish, any short position must be done very conservatively.

After all this whole correction is creating a large bull-flag , the target of the flag size alone is good enough to hit 20k , let alone the pole size target, while I will still look to short those areas if I get the chance, I am also considering my plans of going long.

https://i.imgur.com/yxCZPRI.png

There are many good trading opportunities here, but to keep this thread simple, let's just say that things look pretty bullish overall.


It's about 2 years for the BULL market, and only 1 year for the Bear.


That was a typo, i meant to type ATH , by the way ATL is also a possibility, but it sounds as realistic a time machine  ;D

From the look of those arrows you've already called the bottom, no? That's what I meant.

Conventional traders would short the $9,000s but I'm done shorting myself. The easy gains are already done. Given the sentiment and bearish positions accumulated over the past couple weeks, it's possible BTC just slices right through these "expected" resistances with no major dips and breaks out with authority. July 2013 is my closest model so far, and in that case there really was no major dip until the Silk Road crash in October.

Great analysis, if we just based on the chart alone, there's a possibility that we will reach at this price at that time.
However, we know that this market isn't just about the chart or our TA, major reason why the market more is due to hype and FUD and of course we need some big news that will be considered as a driving factor.

I'm just hoping by that time we will have some good news within the market so we can push that TA of yours.

"must" lmao....

In all seriousness, the market just needs to flush out a lot of weak hands and traders with profitable positions. I am currently stacking up fiat preparing for a $5-$6k visit. I don't often get bearish, but now I rightfully am.

Realistically speaking, $5k is a bit of a stretch, but with how irrational the market is a $5k flash wick might be a great (possibly once in a lifetime) opportunity to enter the market at such lower levels.

After all, it's Bitcoin that we're talking about---pumps and dumps have happened for nearly a decade so don't expect the market to suddenly behave differently. People also thought the market changed last year and paid the price for it.

Was only quoting OP, why the lols =p but anyway, yeah, it was an expression for a speculation thread, surely people are allowed to make some predeterminations ;)

I have always wanted this flush to happen, or the purge as I have been calling it. I was in this regard rather disappointed when after the near 3k low, Bitcoin surged all the way back to past 13k. So of course weak hands git stronger and people went right back into hype mode. Ah well!

@lionheart today was some kind of half hearted push for a breakout!

I always have  a positive outlook on the price of Bitcoin, so I always see a price increase even when there is a dump.

I am personally looking at a price of 25k by March but looking at the recent price with your analysis OP, I think a price of 20k is what might come.

Thanks for the technical analysis OP if this happen by march most people will be happy but always consider the volatility of bitcoin I always look for two scenario one for bullish and other for bearish.
I just hoping this will happen sooner but right now bitcoin suddenly on bearish trend.

The sooner it will happen the better. When support lever turns resistance every time there is a breakout, its a positive indicator that there prices will be better.  2020 must be the year where we see btc hit the ATH once again.   just wish I have more time to acquire more BTC actually in order for me to at least have some more funds to either buy some altcoins that I think will also go up.

Sure it's possible, but don't be too greedy waiting for it. I often look for a high volume capitulation to indicate bottoms in BTC but it's important to note there have been major historic bottoms (like July 2013) that ended not with a bang but a whimper.

It's possible we quietly bottom on low volume (or already have) and just gradually start sliding upwards again. Those are the most frustrating sorts of bottoms for shorters and can lead to some impressive squeezes.

Nice chart,  I'm also having a positive mind about the market going upthrend movements in beating it's previous all time high,  hopefully bitcoin movements follows your chart, before halving I am optimistic about the price reaching $20k

I believe that bitcoin does not follow the trend as they all have their own different factors at different time that will be responsible for the growth of bitcoin at that particular time. I believe in the growth of bitcoin for next year and I believe so much in this figure again, but I really do doubt if it will be possible to witness this price before the halving.

The next factor that will really make way for this increase again is the halving, after which the price may even grow above the $20k speculated. I think that after the bull run, it is possible that bitcoin rises to about $35k while some altcoins like Ethereum will actually follow bitcoin behind too and then witness their last all-time high, but I think the last all time high of some altcoins are what will be witnessed again and nothing more.

The real question is when that bull run would come? The market has slowed down incredibly over the past weeks and has entered the previous state of lethargy that we experienced earlier this year.
The market value has been dwindling within a certain range with no signs of a break out.
I do not support the assumptions that altcoins would be dying any time soon, there is lots of potential in the market if the right developers key into the market, and the existing projects are upgraded often

I don't see how it's that bit of a stretch, Im calling $3k as a possible final bottom, breaking the double bottom a bit, so going lower than the last December 12th's last bottom, this would mark the end of the bear market for a perfect go-all-in opportunity. Chances of this may be lower than I would like tho. Maybe im biased and deluded because I missed that bottom, but I still see within the realm of possibility. Something in me tells me that we haven't seen enough pain yet. A final shakedown to $3k ish would put the nail on the coffin for all the clueless people that entered Bitcoin during 2017, wheter it is CNBC boomers or milllenial lambomoon guys. Those need to be deprived of any hope, then, we go all in and ride the Halving rollercoaster to $100k as it aligns with the brewing global crisis in all things fiat.

^
I do think the real HODLers could easily continue there HODL, as I do think those that bought at 2017 would already sold, the ones that where thinking WTF its to low anyway also sold already and if not then why would they be bothered.....
I think its a flawed opinion here.... If it drops then I guess its not cause of a few 2017 buyers who probably all bought smaller amounts of coins anyway, I think the real dumbasses are out already, if its would be some-kind of whale game trying to push us down.... MAYBE.... but then again I think DIPS would be bought faster as you think by new stronghands and HODLers.
I have no opinion thought where we are now but I refuse to believe if we go down thats it because of that particular group of people you are saying...

I don't think it would be a buying opportunity at all. We've been trading at much higher levels, trapping bulls for almost a year if that happens. So in my opinion there's no chance of a double bottom at $3K. If the market goes there, we're going much deeper.

If you're a long term bull you really don't want to see the $3,000s again.

Great chart and analysis! A lot of people are really expecting bitcoin to pump into 20k once the halvingbstarts in 2020 and their not to blame though cause there really is a chance for that to happen. After the first and second halving, the bitcoin prices suddenly pumped within a year of that halving.
 It could be called the calm before the storm though? The market last last week was at around 7500$ but we saw changes and currently it stands at 8k$ so that's a good start right? Besides, Q4 just started so we could expect pumps by the end of it.

everyone wants the price of bitcoin not to fall back to $ 3000, that's for those who have bitcoin,  ;D
but if they don't have it that's exactly what they want, according to experts who made this thread Bitcoin stepped forward and Bull started, this is very good,
so who owns bitcoin might be able to hold it!  8)

When you zoom out over the long run, this bearish downturn doesn't look as scary anymore, does it?

I think the main issue right now is that people are too fixated on the fact that short term sentiment is bearish, and that they're not seeing immediate returns on their investment - which kind of feeds into the bearish cycle since weak hands start dumping their positions.

But over the long run, we have clearly defined market cycles which bitcoin has followed countless times. I do think that $8k will serve as a viable support for BTC to rebound off. Overall, fundamentals have stayed the same, if not drastically improved through LN, even. There is no reason for the ATH not to be broken as we approach halving once again.

A very optimistic approach about bitcoin and that too backed by some concrete technical analysis. I think you are right BTC can't be cheaper than $3200 as per the Ichimoku Cloud. Also I think we need a golden crossover once again for BTC to ignite the spark of BULL run currently there is a lot of floating momentum. Let's see on which side the market ends in around 3 months.

$20k by march would only happen under one condition. The halving gets close and miners stop selling their coins. Do you realize how much money that would mean if miners stop selling their coins?

We are talking about 15 million dollars a month, so if they stop then there would be less sell pressure on bitcoin and buyers will continue buy like nothing changed at first but since the sellers are gone those buyers would increase the price of bitcoin, when it increases it will break a resistance and when that happens people all start to buy which means a bull hype and the price would increase even more.

We could break all resistance points until $20k and reach there as long as enough people join in to buy and miners stop selling and not sell until it reaches $20k, the moment they start to sell again we won't be going any further up.

Wishful thinking or prediction that could come true? To my opinion 20000$ Bitcoin price isn't very realistic to achieve in relatively short period of time. Looking back at the market conditions and current situation I don't see any indicators that would push the price into that direction.
Although everything is possible when it comes to Bitcoin I think that at the moment we have to accept the fact that even going back to 10000$ would be a success.

That's an oversimplification of Bitcoin's supply dynamics. You're overstating the importance of mining supply since nearly 86% of the supply has already been distributed.

It's simple. Two things would need to happen to reach $20K again. Sellers need to stop selling (drying up the global ask side) and demand needs to increase. Why might that happen? Because the market may begin pricing in Bitcoin's increasing stock-to-flow ratio. An extrapolation of this historical metric puts us at $90,000 post-halving: https://www.ccn.com/top-german-bank-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-90000-after-halving/

From that angle, $20K by March sure looks possible to me.

I do only focus out with these short term points. 9900 should be on this month? 13 days left for that thing to happen.
We are dipping now again below 8k price which i do see some good entrance if it would hit up 7800.

Point 6, ATH in 5 months is achievable imho but there would be some factors needed for us to reach that range once again.
Im not too negative with the future but those points above is considerable.

This is what a lot of people didn't expect to happen way back 2017 and all got surprised that a 20,000$ BTC is possible even on a short time frame. If you ask me personally even deep down I don't still believe that short price pumps are possible but the evidence and historical price charts are there to prove us wrong and indeed we should prepare or expect the unexpected when it comes to Bitcoin price movement or the movement of the market overall. Just believing on something and staying for it even if it's all going in the opposite direction is one of the worst things a trader can do because there is too much opportunity that is loss. 

The most intense bull runs happened because people didn't expect them to happen, hence the immense fomo buying pressure that sellers just couldn't sell through in 2017.

People also didn't expect a bull run to commence when we were hovering between the $3000-$4000 levels after the brutal 50% drop. People couldn't agree with each other on how low the price would drop. Would the bottom be $1800? Or even $800? People were well equipped to buy these lows, but weren't equipped to ride the next bull wave, and that's when you get such explosive increases.

What do people do when they see the price go up and don't want to miss out any further? They fomo buy. The capital people thought to use to buy Bitcoin below $3000 was pumped back into the market at much higher levels.

So does this mean there were any indicators back in 2017 that are absent now ? was bitcoin any better than it is now ? if your answer is yes - please name those indicators, if your answer is no- then your statement is invalid, I am not sure what indicators are you talking about , are you talking about fundamentals ? adoption? or technical indicators?

I am not confirming the fact that bitcoin will hit 20k in that short period of time, for all I know , it can go back to 1k in that period, i consider that option with an open mind,but I don't say it out loud , why? because I need something to back it up with, for now , there does not seem to be any indication for it, also please notice that the market of today does not move exactly the same as it did, there are similarities and differences , notice this step


if everything was to work exactly the same, a rejection from 7600$ level to 5900$ before breaking the 8k level should have happened, but the market chose to ignore it, which means we could very likely make up for that move ad retest 5900$ before heading to our next fibo level

in short, this scenario does not have to play 100% the same, so really there is no point in just sitting there waiting for 9900$ in 15 days , this thread should not be treated that way, it's only there to serve as a possible scenario of how things could play out in the next several months.

Everyone believes that bitcoin will really touch again the price of 20000$ but we still not sure that it will happen in the end of this year or even in the year 2020. As of now the price of bitcoin are now near to fall 7700$ which when it might result to another bear market because it will keep on falling down. I guess the bitcoin halving will be the big event that can bring new bull market to us.

It will not a long time for bitcoin to reach $20,000 if the market is ready as we have seen over 30% in crease overnight during the bull run ans we are just a bull run away from those magical numbers but again the worst part it we don't know when as I am sure $8,000 is not the permanent value of bitcoin as it will pump but not sure when.

Come on, guys, this is the fourth quarter of the year with no bull run in the market yet. Don't forget the market normally goes down during Christmas and New year. Forget the charts, I don't actually see a reason why bitcoin price will reach $20,000 by the end of the first quarter 2020 why not even third quarter? Do you even have a reason for the pump? the price doesn't just get pumped like that 8)

Only halving is my reason why i sure bitcoin price will increased. Maybe there will be accumulate phase after it down on christmas and new year like what you said. But if next halving really can bring bitcoin price like in last halving, maybe it is time bitcoin to increased it's value.

yeah everybody is sure that halving will ring positive changes in bitcoin price and i think after this halving the price of bitcoin will become very high, so now a days it is a chance that the price of bitcoin is very low as at this price the accumulation of bitcoin will be very useful for the future and bitcoin will bring more profit.

If people still have money and really afford it, i think it is worth to do. At least bitcoin investment is safer than must make investment in new projects. And with halving, people already have benchmark or maybe confirmation about news that will make bitcoin price get pumped.

By mid-2020, we would have been having the blocking reward, and I think that the halving them may really push the price of bitcoin to go above the last all time high of 2017/2018. This year has already ended, and I don’t think that we should be expecting any that much again as regards increase, I mean major increase.

The only increase that I could see now is that the market recovering back to the value of $10000 by the end of this year, while the bull run will start fully by next year. It is still speculation though, we just need some good news such as regulation, adoption by very powerful government and we will see that the value does not even have to wait for halving for it to rise, so everything still depends on the fundamentals that will occur at that time.

In the coming years we will see regulations being implemented in the market and i am expecting the market to reach around $10k by the end of this year and i am not expecting any big rally again this year, there is a serious economic slow down around the world and it is to be seen how the bitcoin market will react to that too, everyone is expecting the price to rise after halving but what happens we see a economic crisis is yet to be seen.

I agree to you 2020 halving will bring a good uptrend to bitcoin look at the previous history of bitcoin halving and you will notice that its always a uptrend but like what others always said everything can be change no one will know what will happen but I still believe bitcoin will be back to its all time high.

Nothing is out of the ordinary guys.


We still have a few days left for the monthly candle, not closing the month below 7700$ is alone a good indication, close above 9900$ is even a better indication that this analysis might play well.

I am so happy that you provided me the link in the wall observer thread because I found finally a quality discussion about Bitcoin price.

Literally, I thought that nobody is talking about BTC price anymore on this forum, especially in a serious way and without any fooling around.

Bookmarked, watched and set notifications, so I will not miss any single post and hope to be frequently here.

20k$ by march seems optimistic in my opinion but I can see it happen as the charts you've mentioned really look solid and with some evidence to cover your statement. So until next halv we will have Bitcoin ~20k$ followed by a small dip and a projection towards 30k$+ after. What about 2021 ? If 2020 will bring Bitcoin over 20k$ , then 2021 will put it over 60k$ if the price continues to rise at those levels. Time to buy more bitcoin I guess <3

We can predict all the price and have an optimistic view on the market but the reality will be different, i am bullish on the bitcoin market in the long run but i am not expecting any big returns in the short term, there are many factors that will push the price to new levels and if you take a look at the past historical price after halving we usually see the rally but this time there are regulations in the horizon and all these factors will have an impact on the market.

I am increasingly optimistic about seeing OP and all the posts here about increasing bitcoin to reach $ 20,000 and hopefully becoming a reality.
and all I have to do now is wait and hold it for the next few months to get the maximum profit. ;)

March or maybe at the beginning of April most likely Bitcoin will be priced at $ 20k (based on the chart displayed OP).  and even though the level of accuracy might not be 100% but we must remain optimistic about this prediction.

most likely yes.. Bitcoin will be priced at $ 50k-60k in 2021 (these are predictions based on theory)

Thats look more rationall for us.bitcoin or cryptocurrency price will not rise alot without good fundamental,and also whales investors will not buying on coin that already overprice.before halving investor will try to accumulate their bitcoin amount  but it doesnt mean they will buy it on any price.and maybe this year we still see btc price below $15k.we hope next year it start moved to $20k and then continue to $50k a year after.

People will be selling for tax purposes. There will be crash to $7,000 until end of the year. Minimum will be at Dec 20. For 2020, lets be optimistic, halving and such will shoot up bitcoin somewhere to $30,000 and then we have new runaway bull run to somewhere $50K-$100K. I would consider selling some somewhere around $30,000 if that happens in the next 2 years. However, never sell all your bitcoin, because you never know when the true moon will be happening.

I have only $1,500 invested in bitcoin and I bought at $2,800. so i'm not gonna be rich with bitcoin anyway. Even if it goes to $100,000 I will get like $60,000. so I think the big question next year will be about holding or immediate profit. If the bitcoin goes to $28,000 do I sell it for roughly $15,000 profit or do I hold, knowing that the price always goes down at some point. people who bought at $3,000 then sold at $19,000, and then bought again are the boss in my opinion.

There’s nothing else to do but to remain positive that bitcoin will bounce back. I know a lot of us now are having second thought or started to lose faith in bitcoin but it good to know that there are still people who remained positive despite the dump. We are seeing a little pump now hopefully it will continue and maybe by March will then reach $20k, after all it’s been a while already that we have been waiting for the bull to come. I really hope 2020 will be another good year for bitcoin.

All indicators seem going in the right direction and now we just have to watch the price steady move to the new ATH in March? Faster than I thought, but we will see in 5 months. If bitcoin can reach at least $13,000 by the end of the year, bitcoin has a higher probability to reach a new ATH, but if the market seems to reject the bull runs, then more likely bitcoin can't make it.

It should, but only if actual support at 8900-8800$ will hold the selling pressure. This will be the fourth bears' attempt to break the 8900$ resistance level.

If it will not hold, then I am sure the next stop will be at 8300$ because this is the next support. It will be very important, how strong the bears are and to closely monitor volumes.

Usually, if the fourth attempt, to break the support will not succeed, then there is a big probability for a trend reversal.

I see, that already bears started to show the power today and already managed to take the price down after a small spike.

I suppose, today in the night or tomorrow, we will see the bears attacking the support level and this is not so good because it will be at the weekend and BTC doesn't like weekends so much.

Great looking on the chart there mate. At least I'll be able to take a bit of relax for a while. I am not saying that I will be going to believe all the way through but I atleast have my hope for an incoming better market. Although bitcoin wasn't all about this chart, specs and prediction but the thing is that we have at least the foundation of hope. Thank you for this by the way.

That should be more of a concern to be honest, when the majority agree on one direction, price usually does the opposite   ???

 
How does this make any sense ? why haven't this theory applied in 2017 where price kept going up during year end, same thing goes for 2016, tax volume won't be large enough to change a trend direction, let alone the fact that not everybody does actually pay any tax.


There is a good amount of analysis in the WO thread, but they get buried beneath all the B.S and the memes, that's why I don't usually post there and I like to have my own topic/s , this way I am able to view other traders' idea clearly, I don't usually update my analysis since most of them are on the weekly and monthly frame so it takes a few weeks / months for something to actually happen. welcome by the way.

I'd say sentiment is fairly mixed. There's quite a lot of confusion over whether we're in a bear or bull market. Some point to the daily death cross and say last week's rally was a temporary short squeeze. Others believe it was a Wyckoff spring or bear trap scenario and we're now continuing the bull market from earlier this year.


Agreed there, the tax theory is dumb. It's not well founded historically but everybody repeats it every year anyway.

Also not sure about others, but Americans need to make quarterly estimated tax payments on capital gains. I've already made 3 tax payments this year to cover my trading income. There is no "everybody dumps at the same time for taxes" event.


The Wall Observer moves too fast for me. Any TA is bumped off the last page within minutes.

I started my own thread recently as well: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072

yeah we have to hope for the best in any field of life, and here about bitcoin we should not lose our hope as the bitcoin in coming months will bring good news, and the predictions and charts are not always baseless but there are definitely some clues from which we can decide that what will happen to the market next, so you could be relax for some time because good news are coming soon.

I don't know but it really looks like we would hit another all time high next year .
And I hope that this could come true and the next question is would it be strong and stay at that price?
Because we have seen it make it to $20K but after that it collapse and slowly go down up to $3K.
So would this next $20K mark continue to climb or just repeat what happened before?

This year chart looks similiar with 2016 chart which bitcoin exprienced downtrend and many investors move out, year before bitcoin pumped hard and reach it's all time high.
So will the history repeat ? last year we experienced a big dropped and this year it's recovring time, and maybe next year is a time for new ATH ? Let's see.
But the only thing that i can make sure is bitcoin has already reached it's deep this year and it won't go lower anymore

Everyone always look for positive results as bitcoin price tried to cover up those possible bearish trend that's making the price harder to grow. That's true, once price spiked higher it possibly goes down before recovery period is over. Eventually we will see same pattern of the price fluctuations, that's why our analysis only differs with few percentage.

I appreciate the efforts you have made and your technical analysis is very good and i am also optimistic about its growth as prices are rising again and are above $9500 and we might see rally in prices to $10k by the end of the year and if the same pace continues then we might be able to see $20k next year if not in march then in Q2 it is possible.So we need to stay positive about its price surge.

$10,000 by the end of the year is again too late. In fact, Bitcoin has already breached the $10,000 resistance within the month of October. The second or third time it tries to break that, Bitcoin might already be successful and will shoot to more than $12,000. It might all happen within the first 15 days of November. $20,000 by next year is within reach. Maybe not in the first quarter but in the first half most probably.

Here is an update of the current situation.


https://i.imgur.com/MyAyOw5.jpg


The current monthly candle does not reflect the actual price, i have altered it to show the possible price range for the remaining two weeks, based on the initial analysis , after having finished this step


The following month was nothing but a slow side-ways market, where price ranged mostly within the body of the previous monthly candle, which in the current market is the area between 9200$ and 8260$ , this is where i expect the price to keep fluctuating around for the rest of this month,although it's not very unlikely that we don't range between the whole previous candle range from 7300$ to 10300$ but that is the least possible scenario, as i don't think we will go out of the body-range for this month.


for the following month of December , we could very likely close above 0.5 feb at around 10,100$ and actually do test 12200$ where the 0.382 fibo is at.

Two more days before the 15th of November and yet the price is still below $10k, we are failed to break the resistance and for me we can’t see the $12k price this month. Bitcoin is a giant coin overall and if there’s a pump it can easily break any resistance so my prediction would be at the last week of December bitcoin will break the $10k and go up to $15k.

Bitcoin is on its way to reach its new ATH this year, but 20k by March is almost impossible. A slow movement is better than quick rise that lead to quick dump. I'd love to see the BTC price move slowly toward 18k-20k by this year end like we have seen a similar wave in 2016, then a big pump will begin in 2021.

we don't know yet whether Bitcoin will go to $ 20,000 or maybe Bitcoin Dump after this, my strong daily support is at $ 8400, I hope Bitcoin doesn't break through support, and always keep this bullish trend

In my opinion, the king Bitcoin will probably touch $ 12K at this end of this month, and maybe the opposite will happen, it may become under $10K or $9k, we should expect everything but we need to be optimistic even in the worst moments or situations. In fact, Bitcoin 
 is progressing slowly into the halving , I expect that BTC will rise to $ 15K before that event.  Fortunately, the china crisis has a postive impact on the market especially during this period.

We really couldn't expect and predict the exact event that might happen in the future, even if you analyze the chart, it would still be enough because, it is limited by other factors. All we could do is taking choices carefully and hope that it would be correct.

For me, a $20,000 Bitcoin value in march would be mostly not possible but, I would not leave out any chance for it to reached that price. Bitcoin is still facing resistance in its price in the present in the $10,100 range, and $20,000 value is still far. I think it would only reach $11,000 this month or if possible $11,000 and a half.

Perhaps the China outbreak is causing a delay in the price pump. By this time, price for bitcoins should have been above $10300 but it is a bit far from that point which keeps me making my own technical analysis about the future price. I can predict for short term but it gets a bit challenging for me to assume a approx price speaking in terms of long term.

I am much afraid about the price getting dumped instantly and that is what keeps me close to short term markets only where I can easily sell my coins and buy back again even in the bearish trend. OP has stated a nice TA which might make understanding long term markets a bit easier but yet I feel like bitcoins would retest at a dip which would never be touched again and bitcoins would than start the journey towards moon.

I have to say you really made a deep analysis about the past 2 bull runs. This would make it much better for us to understand more about the coming bull runs. Some of the price changes are similar as to what we experienced in the last bull runs which occurred in the mid 2017.

Even this year some of the characteristics might be similar to the old ones that time. Your analysis makes it a bit easier to understand the price movement for next few months. Maybe we could experience some pumps and dumps in the next few months as the price would keep on moving in a triangular form from the peak to the dip which would open doors for short term investments as well.