20K by March, A positive Look at the market.

[FlamingFingers]

Nice chart,  I'm also having a positive mind about the market going upthrend movements in beating it's previous all time high,  hopefully bitcoin movements follows your chart, before halving I am optimistic about the price reaching $20k

[jostorres]

I believe that bitcoin does not follow the trend as they all have their own different factors at different time that will be responsible for the growth of bitcoin at that particular time. I believe in the growth of bitcoin for next year and I believe so much in this figure again, but I really do doubt if it will be possible to witness this price before the halving.

The next factor that will really make way for this increase again is the halving, after which the price may even grow above the $20k speculated. I think that after the bull run, it is possible that bitcoin rises to about $35k while some altcoins like Ethereum will actually follow bitcoin behind too and then witness their last all-time high, but I think the last all time high of some altcoins are what will be witnessed again and nothing more.

[Upgrade00]

I think that after the bull run, it is possible that bitcoin rises to about $35k while some altcoins like Ethereum will actually follow bitcoin behind too and then witness their last all-time high, but I think the last all time high of some altcoins are what will be witnessed again and nothing more.

The real question is when that bull run would come? The market has slowed down incredibly over the past weeks and has entered the previous state of lethargy that we experienced earlier this year.
The market value has been dwindling within a certain range with no signs of a break out.
I do not support the assumptions that altcoins would be dying any time soon, there is lots of potential in the market if the right developers key into the market, and the existing projects are upgraded often

[pereira4]

9900 must happen this month -- I agree, else we'll say hello to 6k again.

"must" lmao....

In all seriousness, the market just needs to flush out a lot of weak hands and traders with profitable positions. I am currently stacking up fiat preparing for a $5-$6k visit. I don't often get bearish, but now I rightfully am.

Realistically speaking, $5k is a bit of a stretch, but with how irrational the market is a $5k flash wick might be a great (possibly once in a lifetime) opportunity to enter the market at such lower levels.

After all, it's Bitcoin that we're talking about---pumps and dumps have happened for nearly a decade so don't expect the market to suddenly behave differently. People also thought the market changed last year and paid the price for it.

I don't see how it's that bit of a stretch, Im calling $3k as a possible final bottom, breaking the double bottom a bit, so going lower than the last December 12th's last bottom, this would mark the end of the bear market for a perfect go-all-in opportunity. Chances of this may be lower than I would like tho. Maybe im biased and deluded because I missed that bottom, but I still see within the realm of possibility. Something in me tells me that we haven't seen enough pain yet. A final shakedown to $3k ish would put the nail on the coffin for all the clueless people that entered Bitcoin during 2017, wheter it is CNBC boomers or milllenial lambomoon guys. Those need to be deprived of any hope, then, we go all in and ride the Halving rollercoaster to $100k as it aligns with the brewing global crisis in all things fiat.

[El duderino_]

^
I do think the real HODLers could easily continue there HODL, as I do think those that bought at 2017 would already sold, the ones that where thinking WTF its to low anyway also sold already and if not then why would they be bothered.....
I think its a flawed opinion here.... If it drops then I guess its not cause of a few 2017 buyers who probably all bought smaller amounts of coins anyway, I think the real dumbasses are out already, if its would be some-kind of whale game trying to push us down.... MAYBE.... but then again I think DIPS would be bought faster as you think by new stronghands and HODLers.
I have no opinion thought where we are now but I refuse to believe if we go down thats it because of that particular group of people you are saying...

[exstasie]

I don't see how it's that bit of a stretch, Im calling $3k as a possible final bottom, breaking the double bottom a bit, so going lower than the last December 12th's last bottom, this would mark the end of the bear market for a perfect go-all-in opportunity.

I don't think it would be a buying opportunity at all. We've been trading at much higher levels, trapping bulls for almost a year if that happens. So in my opinion there's no chance of a double bottom at $3K. If the market goes there, we're going much deeper.

If you're a long term bull you really don't want to see the $3,000s again.

[Wexnident]

Great chart and analysis! A lot of people are really expecting bitcoin to pump into 20k once the halvingbstarts in 2020 and their not to blame though cause there really is a chance for that to happen. After the first and second halving, the bitcoin prices suddenly pumped within a year of that halving.
 

I think that after the bull run, it is possible that bitcoin rises to about $35k while some altcoins like Ethereum will actually follow bitcoin behind too and then witness their last all-time high, but I think the last all time high of some altcoins are what will be witnessed again and nothing more.

The real question is when that bull run would come? The market has slowed down incredibly over the past weeks and has entered the previous state of lethargy that we experienced earlier this year.
The market value has been dwindling within a certain range with no signs of a break out.
I do not support the assumptions that altcoins would be dying any time soon, there is lots of potential in the market if the right developers key into the market, and the existing projects are upgraded often

It could be called the calm before the storm though? The market last last week was at around 7500$ but we saw changes and currently it stands at 8k$ so that's a good start right? Besides, Q4 just started so we could expect pumps by the end of it.

[monineklutak]

I don't see how it's that bit of a stretch, Im calling $3k as a possible final bottom, breaking the double bottom a bit, so going lower than the last December 12th's last bottom, this would mark the end of the bear market for a perfect go-all-in opportunity.

I don't think it would be a buying opportunity at all. We've been trading at much higher levels, trapping bulls for almost a year if that happens. So in my opinion there's no chance of a double bottom at $3K. If the market goes there, we're going much deeper.

If you're a long term bull you really don't want to see the $3,000s again.

everyone wants the price of bitcoin not to fall back to $ 3000, that's for those who have bitcoin, 
but if they don't have it that's exactly what they want, according to experts who made this thread Bitcoin stepped forward and Bull started, this is very good,
so who owns bitcoin might be able to hold it! 

[magneto]

When you zoom out over the long run, this bearish downturn doesn't look as scary anymore, does it?

I think the main issue right now is that people are too fixated on the fact that short term sentiment is bearish, and that they're not seeing immediate returns on their investment - which kind of feeds into the bearish cycle since weak hands start dumping their positions.

But over the long run, we have clearly defined market cycles which bitcoin has followed countless times. I do think that $8k will serve as a viable support for BTC to rebound off. Overall, fundamentals have stayed the same, if not drastically improved through LN, even. There is no reason for the ATH not to be broken as we approach halving once again.

[Ctn]

A very optimistic approach about bitcoin and that too backed by some concrete technical analysis. I think you are right BTC can't be cheaper than $3200 as per the Ichimoku Cloud. Also I think we need a golden crossover once again for BTC to ignite the spark of BULL run currently there is a lot of floating momentum. Let's see on which side the market ends in around 3 months.

[beerlover]

$20k by march would only happen under one condition. The halving gets close and miners stop selling their coins. Do you realize how much money that would mean if miners stop selling their coins?

We are talking about 15 million dollars a month, so if they stop then there would be less sell pressure on bitcoin and buyers will continue buy like nothing changed at first but since the sellers are gone those buyers would increase the price of bitcoin, when it increases it will break a resistance and when that happens people all start to buy which means a bull hype and the price would increase even more.

We could break all resistance points until $20k and reach there as long as enough people join in to buy and miners stop selling and not sell until it reaches $20k, the moment they start to sell again we won't be going any further up.

[bitbunnny]

Wishful thinking or prediction that could come true? To my opinion 20000$ Bitcoin price isn't very realistic to achieve in relatively short period of time. Looking back at the market conditions and current situation I don't see any indicators that would push the price into that direction.
Although everything is possible when it comes to Bitcoin I think that at the moment we have to accept the fact that even going back to 10000$ would be a success.

[exstasie]

$20k by march would only happen under one condition. The halving gets close and miners stop selling their coins.

That's an oversimplification of Bitcoin's supply dynamics. You're overstating the importance of mining supply since nearly 86% of the supply has already been distributed.

It's simple. Two things would need to happen to reach $20K again. Sellers need to stop selling (drying up the global ask side) and demand needs to increase. Why might that happen? Because the market may begin pricing in Bitcoin's increasing stock-to-flow ratio. An extrapolation of this historical metric puts us at $90,000 post-halving: https://www.ccn.com/top-german-bank-predicts-bitcoin-to-hit-90000-after-halving/

From that angle, $20K by March sure looks possible to me.

[dunfida]

5-A retest of the 0.5 level (9900$)  > unknown but must happen this month
6-A steady move to ATL ATH in 5 months > unknown

I do only focus out with these short term points. 9900 should be on this month? 13 days left for that thing to happen.
We are dipping now again below 8k price which i do see some good entrance if it would hit up 7800.

Point 6, ATH in 5 months is achievable imho but there would be some factors needed for us to reach that range once again.
Im not too negative with the future but those points above is considerable.

[Harlot]

Wishful thinking or prediction that could come true? To my opinion 20000$ Bitcoin price isn't very realistic to achieve in relatively short period of time. Looking back at the market conditions and current situation I don't see any indicators that would push the price into that direction.
Although everything is possible when it comes to Bitcoin I think that at the moment we have to accept the fact that even going back to 10000$ would be a success.

This is what a lot of people didn't expect to happen way back 2017 and all got surprised that a 20,000$ BTC is possible even on a short time frame. If you ask me personally even deep down I don't still believe that short price pumps are possible but the evidence and historical price charts are there to prove us wrong and indeed we should prepare or expect the unexpected when it comes to Bitcoin price movement or the movement of the market overall. Just believing on something and staying for it even if it's all going in the opposite direction is one of the worst things a trader can do because there is too much opportunity that is loss. 

[1Referee]

This is what a lot of people didn't expect to happen way back 2017 and all got surprised that a 20,000$ BTC is possible even on a short time frame.

The most intense bull runs happened because people didn't expect them to happen, hence the immense fomo buying pressure that sellers just couldn't sell through in 2017.

People also didn't expect a bull run to commence when we were hovering between the $3000-$4000 levels after the brutal 50% drop. People couldn't agree with each other on how low the price would drop. Would the bottom be $1800? Or even $800? People were well equipped to buy these lows, but weren't equipped to ride the next bull wave, and that's when you get such explosive increases.

What do people do when they see the price go up and don't want to miss out any further? They fomo buy. The capital people thought to use to buy Bitcoin below $3000 was pumped back into the market at much higher levels.

[mikeywith]

To my opinion 20000$ Bitcoin price isn't very realistic to achieve in relatively short period of time. Looking back at the market conditions and current situation I don't see any indicators that would push the price into that direction.

So does this mean there were any indicators back in 2017 that are absent now ? was bitcoin any better than it is now ? if your answer is yes - please name those indicators, if your answer is no- then your statement is invalid, I am not sure what indicators are you talking about , are you talking about fundamentals ? adoption? or technical indicators?

I am not confirming the fact that bitcoin will hit 20k in that short period of time, for all I know , it can go back to 1k in that period, i consider that option with an open mind,but I don't say it out loud , why? because I need something to back it up with, for now , there does not seem to be any indication for it, also please notice that the market of today does not move exactly the same as it did, there are similarities and differences , notice this step

2-A rejection from the 0.618 > Skipped

if everything was to work exactly the same, a rejection from 7600$ level to 5900$ before breaking the 8k level should have happened, but the market chose to ignore it, which means we could very likely make up for that move ad retest 5900$ before heading to our next fibo level

in short, this scenario does not have to play 100% the same, so really there is no point in just sitting there waiting for 9900$ in 15 days , this thread should not be treated that way, it's only there to serve as a possible scenario of how things could play out in the next several months.

[CarnagexD]

I believe we will touch 20k before halving but fail to break it until after. This is in line with my belief.

Everyone believes that bitcoin will really touch again the price of 20000$ but we still not sure that it will happen in the end of this year or even in the year 2020. As of now the price of bitcoin are now near to fall 7700$ which when it might result to another bear market because it will keep on falling down. I guess the bitcoin halving will be the big event that can bring new bull market to us.

[Wysi]

I believe we will touch 20k before halving but fail to break it until after. This is in line with my belief.

Everyone believes that bitcoin will really touch again the price of 20000$ but we still not sure that it will happen in the end of this year or even in the year 2020. As of now the price of bitcoin are now near to fall 7700$ which when it might result to another bear market because it will keep on falling down. I guess the bitcoin halving will be the big event that can bring new bull market to us.

It will not a long time for bitcoin to reach $20,000 if the market is ready as we have seen over 30% in crease overnight during the bull run ans we are just a bull run away from those magical numbers but again the worst part it we don't know when as I am sure $8,000 is not the permanent value of bitcoin as it will pump but not sure when.

[TriplexXx]

Thanks a lot @mikeywith for taking the time to post this amazing analysis here. I am not actually technically-gifted person but your post seems easy to catch up. I am expecting that by next month Bitcoin can try to break the $9900 level and from thereon until the end of December we can be moving sideways. Do you think that can be possible based on your charts?

I believe we will touch 20k before halving but fail to break it until after. This is in line with my belief.

Everyone believes that bitcoin will really touch again the price of 20000$ but we still not sure that it will happen in the end of this year or even in the year 2020. As of now the price of bitcoin are now near to fall 7700$ which when it might result to another bear market because it will keep on falling down. I guess the bitcoin halving will be the big event that can bring new bull market to us.

It will not a long time for bitcoin to reach $20,000 if the market is ready as we have seen over 30% in crease overnight during the bull run ans we are just a bull run away from those magical numbers but again the worst part it we don't know when as I am sure $8,000 is not the permanent value of bitcoin as it will pump but not sure when.

Come on, guys, this is the fourth quarter of the year with no bull run in the market yet. Don't forget the market normally goes down during Christmas and New year. Forget the charts, I don't actually see a reason why bitcoin price will reach $20,000 by the end of the first quarter 2020 why not even third quarter? Do you even have a reason for the pump? the price doesn't just get pumped like that