[FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC]

[SFR10]

-to participate you must HAVE 10 MERIT and at least 50 ACTIVITY

5 earned Merit is still low, similar giveaways have mostly 10 Merit:

Indeed ^{[for us it's quite low but for lower-ranked members, might be a different story]}.

• Other giveaways aren't aimed at newbies/lower-ranked members (given that you posted on this board, I guess that should've been one of the objectives ^{[to allow users with a lower rank, participate in your giveaway]})

and I reviewed possible abusers manually.

Perhaps this might be the better solution ^{[regardless of it being a bit subjective]}...

I wasn't sure if that approach would work also for international giveaways and didn't want to take a risk, so I decided to set a criteria of at least 5 earned Merit.

It will

But your suggestion "at least Member or above" could also be a fair solution.

Actually, it's the other way around

I'll add a poll if we should include him or not.

I'm with LoyceV on this one. A change in rule/s should only apply to succeeding rounds.

[hosseinimr93]

Latest projection: 607,431 (current block) + (22*144) = 610,599

So I need about a day of blockchain rewind due to a 51% attack to win. Or a large enough drop in Bitcoin price to make 5% of all miners pull the plug. I happily accept defeat over of those 2 scenarios

LoyceV, you have a big chance to win the competition. It might be better to say that you have the biggest chance of winning.
First block of December 13 (at CET) was just mined. The number was 607846.
The difference between first block of December 13 and first block of December 10 was 415. So, in these three days, 138.3 blocks has been mined per day on average.

If blocks are mined at a same rate in next 19 days:
First block of 2020= 607431+(22*138.3)= 610474

This block number will make you win the competition.
So you don't need a 51% attack.

[RapTarX]

I voted No. Changing the rules after the start of the game can only lead to drama if it leads to someone else being the winner.

Never thought in that way. You are correct LoyceV.

If blocks are mined at a same rate in next 19 days:
First block of 2020= 607431+(22*138.3)= 610474

I guess it's not going to be same for the next 19 days. On every 2016 blocks, we will have adjustment for maintaining the average time of 10 minutes for blocks.
19*138= 2622 blocks, we will see 1/2 adjustment within these days & it's very possible to be higher than the block you calculated.

[LoyceV]

LoyceV, you have a big chance to win the competition.
~snip~
This block number will make you win the competition.
So you don't need a 51% attack.

Less blocks per day was the scenario on which my prediction was based:

So it could be the hashrate dropped in the past month (due to the price drop), and if that's the case, the hashrate has to continue dropping for my prediction to become true.

Unfortunately, Bitcoin's price has been dropping for a while now.

I guess it's not going to be same for the next 19 days. On every 2016 blocks, we will have adjustment for maintaining the average time of 10 minutes for blocks.
19*138= 2622 blocks, we will see 1/2 adjustment within these days & it's very possible to be higher than the block you calculated.

Correct. Unless the Bitcoin price keeps dropping, in which case more and more miners will stop wasting electricity, and blocks slow down further.

The moment the price goes up a lot, all miners will continue mining and find blocks faster until the next difficulty adjustment. That's the scenario I'm hoping for

[1miau]

-to participate you must HAVE 10 MERIT and at least 50 ACTIVITY

5 earned Merit is still low, similar giveaways have mostly 10 Merit:

Indeed ^{[for us it's quite low but for lower-ranked members, might be a different story]}.

• Other giveaways aren't aimed at newbies/lower-ranked members (given that you posted on this board, I guess that should've been one of the objectives ^{[to allow users with a lower rank, participate in your giveaway]})

In general, everyone was allowed and my intention was to get some detailed explanations why users nominated a specified number. (That would help Newbies to understand more about Blocks and Mining)

and I reviewed possible abusers manually.

Perhaps this might be the better solution ^{[regardless of it being a bit subjective]}...

Yeah, subjectiveness might result in disappointment, users feeling offended when they are denied for enrolling suspected alts while playing innocent especially when we have no reliable proof. For this giveaway, such users didn't apply but I think it's because of the 5 Merit rule.
Hhampuz made a giveaway last year and masses of alts applied. 

I wasn't sure if that approach would work also for international giveaways and didn't want to take a risk, so I decided to set a criteria of at least 5 earned Merit.

It will

Maybe I'll give it a try next year. ^^

But your suggestion "at least Member or above" could also be a fair solution.

Actually, it's the other way around

Ok 
But we need at least a few participants xD

The moment the price goes up a lot, all miners will continue mining and find blocks faster until the next difficulty adjustment. That's the scenario I'm hoping for

But if that's happening, the first Block mined in 2020 will be higher than now. Best for you (and me much more since my prediction is even lower) would be a decreasing Bitcoin price, that miners will leave the network, hashrate will decrease and less blocks produced per 2016 Block interval.

Current projection (every block 10 minutes): 608,000 (current block) + (18*144) = 610,592

[LoyceV]

The moment the price goes up a lot, all miners will continue mining and find blocks faster until the next difficulty adjustment. That's the scenario I'm hoping for

But if that's happening, the first Block mined in 2020 will be higher than now. Best for you (and me much more since my prediction is even lower) would be a decreasing Bitcoin price, that miners will leave the network, hashrate will decrease and less blocks produced per 2016 Block interval.

Correct. Except for my hopes for a higher Bitcoin price outrank my hopes for winning this educational giveaway
I'm always bullish.

[HCP]

With regards to the merit requirements... You should have just made a rule that only accounts created PRIOR to the timedate of the thread creation are eligible to enter (prevents people from spooling up new accounts to try and flood the giveaway).

Sure, someone could already have a massive amounts of alts that they're going to use to just throw in multiple guesses... but considering this was supposed to be an educational giveaway... and it was posted in B&H... limiting via merit would probably preclude a lot of "beginners".

[1miau]

but considering this was supposed to be an educational giveaway... and it was posted in B&H... limiting via merit would probably preclude a lot of "beginners".

I agree, the Merit requirement wasn't the best to support Newbies participating here and for the next time I'll see how I can improve it. I'm in doubt that a general "everyone can participate here" will work. I've seen so many giveaways failing because cheaters destroyed them. It's extremely difficult to spot if users are alts when they have not many posts.
However, I'll try to find a creative way how we can make fairer rules next time.  

I'm always bullish.

We know  

18,700     LoyceV
!!! Q3 game is life, Quarter 3 prediction game !!!

19,849    LoyceV
Q4 -Quarter 4 speculation thread, where will 2019 end, join the LIST

30645  LoyceV
NEW BAKKT game

[hosseinimr93]

I agree, the Merit requirement wasn't the best to support Newbies participating here and for the next time I'll see how I can improve it. I'm in doubt that a general "everyone can participate here" will work. I've seen so many giveaways failing because cheaters destroyed them. It's extremely difficult to spot if users are alts when they have not many posts.
However, I'll try to find a creative way how we can make fairer rules next time.  

Requiring participants to have certain number of merits was the best thing you could do and you did it. There should be a requirement, a minimum post count, a minimum activity or minimum merits. I think minimum merits is the best option and I personally cannot find a better solution.

As you said, there are some competitions in "games and round" board. Some owners don't bother themselves to make a rule. Some of them say that using multiple accounts are not allowed, but actually they do nothing to fight multiple accounts. Most of those competitions are due to promotion and advertising purposes and owners don't have any issue with multiple accounts. Because multiple accounts help their thread be more active and this is exactly what they want. But your giveaway is different from them. You are paying the reward with your own money, want to have a fair competition and have to make a rule to avoid cheaters.

[Last of the V8s]

Is it me or are the blocks belting along now?

[mikeywith]

Is it me or are the blocks belting along now?

Latest Block:   609188  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   113.6985%  (357 / 313.99 expected, 43.01 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   12948593420946.38XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 13480561975671 and 14751956070301
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.1083% and +13.9271%

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

I was late on payment for December pre-orders from Bitmain, and my shipment should arrive in 3-5 days, since these orders are shipped based on a first-come-first-serve basis, it means many people have already received their new toys and they are now crunching these blocks in no time. Mind you that Bitmain is not the only company doing so, Whatsminer has a dozen of pre-orders that are supposed to arrive soon as well.

Sadly all of this is probably not going to make you or myself win (both our predictions are a bit far-fetched), I expected the gears to come online a lot sooner which was not the case (i underestimated the time it takes from shipping the gears out till they actually come online).

I now think one of these guys will win

Code:

610,538	HCP
610,540	Royse777
610,542	pooya87

[1miau]

Requiring participants to have certain number of merits was the best thing you could do and you did it. There should be a requirement, a minimum post count, a minimum activity or minimum merits. I think minimum merits is the best option and I personally cannot find a better solution.

As you said, there are some competitions in "games and round" board. Some owners don't bother themselves to make a rule. Some of them say that using multiple accounts are not allowed, but actually they do nothing to fight multiple accounts. Most of those competitions are due to promotion and advertising purposes and owners don't have any issue with multiple accounts. Because multiple accounts help their thread be more active and this is exactly what they want. But your giveaway is different from them. You are paying the reward with your own money, want to have a fair competition and have to make a rule to avoid cheaters.

Well said and not only my money since Royse777 added some BTC to the pool.

Code:

610,538	HCP
610,540	Royse777
610,542	pooya87

Right now, the outcome is possibly even higher based on my projection, if we expect 144 Blocks per day: 

Latest projection: 609,200 (current block) + (10*144) = 610,640

If blocks are confirming faster from now on, we'll see more blocks mined until 2020 of course.


The trend is clearly pointing towards somewhere around 610,700, assuming that BTC won't drop:

New projection: 37,225 Minutes / 10 Blocks + 606,852 (current Block) = 610,574

Latest projection: 607,431 (current block) + (22*144) = 610,599

Current projection (every block 10 minutes): 608,000 (current block) + (18*144) = 610,592

But nobody knows what BTC price is doing. A new dump could happen at any time.

[GazetaBitcoin]

I'm confident I'll win this contest

[RapTarX]

I'm confident I'll win this contest

Current block is 609315
We are ~13364 minutes away to the CET time of reaching 2020. According to the average block time, we will have ~1336 more blocks which will be resulted to the first block of 2020 as 610651. In that case hosseinimr93 will win the 1st prize & DdmrDdmr will get the 2nd prize, you are far away from the list. I guess you will only get if number of miners get reduced; if the price fall significantly.

[LoyceV]

Current block is 609315
We are ~13364 minutes away to the CET time of reaching 2020. According to the average block time, we will have ~1336 more blocks which will be resulted to the first block of 2020 as 610651. In that case hosseinimr93 will win the 1st prize & DdmrDdmr will get the 2nd prize

So basically, if we skip December 31, I win

[RapTarX]

So basically, if we skip December 31, I win

We have a record of skipping December 30th  Therefore, it's possible.

[hosseinimr93]

4770 minutes left until 2020 starts (at CET) . The current block number 610169.
Assuming every block is mined in 10 minutes, 477 blocks are going to be mined.
So, estimated number of first block of 2020 is 610646

I am going to win the contest.

[RapTarX]

.
So, estimated number of first block of 2020 is 610646

I am going to win the contest.

I'm 33 blocks behind as per my calculation. Unless BTC get pumped to $8000, I don't have the chance to win anymore I guess & so do the others who predicted below 610550. You have a chance there though. By the way, the average time per block since then is ~10 minutes & 4/5 seconds which is a bit higher than the average.

[hosseinimr93]

.
So, estimated number of first block of 2020 is 610646

I am going to win the contest.

I'm 33 blocks behind as per my calculation. Unless BTC get pumped to $8000, I don't have the chance to win anymore I guess & so do the others who predicted below 610550. You have a chance there though. By the way, the average time per block since then is ~10 minutes & 4/5 seconds which is a bit higher than the average.

If BTC is pumped to 8000 dollar, we will have more miners and faster transactions. This will cause your chance to be even lower.

You are right about the average time. If blocks are mined at such a rate, nelson4lov has the biggest chance to win the contest.

[pooya87]

~
I'm 33 blocks behind as per my calculation. Unless BTC get pumped to $8000, I don't have the chance to win anymore I guess & so do the others who predicted below 610550. You have a chance there though. By the way, the average time per block since then is ~10 minutes & 4/5 seconds which is a bit higher than the average.

even if price goes up 10% (to $8000+) it still takes time for miners with offline mining equipment to see the additional possible profit and for new hashrate to enter the mining space to lead to any kind of faster blocks. not to mention that such a small price rise could only lead to a tiny hashrate rise and such rises won't affect the time between blocks really.