Title: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on December 28, 2020, 11:13:02 AM In this thread I will collect various Research papers published by Wall Street Banks on Bitcoin.
Banking sectors have begun to cover Bitcoin in Various aspects. A few reports are quite remarkable, so will deserve their own thread. Some other are important for a minor reason, but maybe they are referenced on other news, or papers without proper reporting, and it is often difficult to read the original article. I will use those to collate and reference into other thread, publishing graphs and paragraph linked to these research. I won't always be able to post full documents to protect my sources, obviously, as often those materials come with a watermark. All reported material will be quoted. My comments will be out of quotes. If you find some missing article, or want to read a particular one, just ask, I will unleash my hounds to fetch the missing pieces. Title: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin: JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity Post by: fillippone on December 28, 2020, 11:13:17 AM JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity
How has the investment landscape changed during 2020? 21 December 2020 Summary: Quote
Relevant Bitcoin Parts: Quote
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Now a really interesting part: Quote Inflows the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust still too big to allow any position unwinding by momentum traders to create sustained negative price dynamics
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Apart every speculation about Grayscale, I think I have addressed in my thread, I think the interesting part is the proxy positioning based on Open Interest. An Indicator I will try to reproduce in TradingView. EDIT: Zerohedge referenced to this article, with various comments Bitcoin At $650,000? One Stunning Chart, And Why JPMorgan Thinks Nothing Can Stop It Now (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-650000-one-stunning-chart-and-why-jpmorgan-thinks-nothing-can-stop-bitcoin-now) Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on December 28, 2020, 10:41:50 PM There is an interesting bit here:
Quote As a reminder to our readers to infer positioning in bitcoin futures, we use our open interest position proxy methodology that we also apply to other futures contracts, where we look at the cumulative weekly absolute changes in the open interest multiplied by the sign of the futures price change every week.
Is anyone able to reproduce it in Tradingview? Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: The Sceptical Chymist on December 28, 2020, 10:51:37 PM Cool idea for a thread, OP. It's kind of amazing to me how mainstream bitcoin has become in terms of its coverage in the financial news compared to when I started getting interested in it about six years ago. There was some coverage back then, but it was almost as if bitcoin was a freak-show asset that was performing like a carnival act. Now there's just straight reporting on it as if it were just another investment class.
This caught my eye: https://i.imgur.com/z3nDAJ9.png I would not have expected stock values to lag that far behind bitcoin, considering stocks have been in a prolonged bull market for over a decade now--but nonetheless the bitcoin growth numbers are incredible! There's certainly been huge demand for it, particularly by all those companies that bought it as an alternative to cash (like MicroStrategy). Whew. It's been one hell of a year in many ways, but at least one positive that came out of 2020 is that bitcoin reached a new ATH. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on December 28, 2020, 11:04:49 PM Well, the explanation is in the previous graph:
Bitcoin is barely visible. Bitcoin is tiny, so a minuscule amount of money can send it to the sky. Of course once BTC will prove itself as a viable SoV, it will begin sucking value from all other asset classes, as at least some percentage of those are held because...SoV. Anyway, the Gold amount doesn’t seems correct to me, as Gold capitalisation looks more 10 trln to me (they might be referring only to privately held Gold) equivalent to a Bitcoin priced at 485,000 USD. EDIT: Zerohedge referenced to this article, with various comments and a slightly different Gold Estimate! Bitcoin At $650,000? One Stunning Chart, And Why JPMorgan Thinks Nothing Can Stop It Now (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-650000-one-stunning-chart-and-why-jpmorgan-thinks-nothing-can-stop-bitcoin-now) Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin: JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity Post by: fillippone on January 05, 2021, 04:12:27 PM JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity
Has bitcoin equalised with gold already? 04 January 2021 Summary: Quote
Relevant Bitcoin Parts: Quote
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Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: Upgrade00 on January 05, 2021, 06:49:59 PM Those are pretty impressive figures. $3 billion inflows into Bitcoin is quite significant and when you consider it's only being charted from Grayscale investments, it gives the idea that there is a global paradigm shift in investment destination as individuals and companies alike are trusting Bitcoin to preserve the value of their funds and speculatively give them profits.
What's your comment on the suggestion that mining cost represents intrinsic value for Bitcoin? Mining cost varies depending on location and some other factors and would you consider it to be the metric that gives Bitcoin its value and as such any price spike above that could be considered to be purely speculative? Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on January 05, 2021, 10:31:11 PM What's your comment on the suggestion that mining cost represents intrinsic value for Bitcoin? Mining cost varies depending on location and some other factors and would you consider it to be the metric that gives Bitcoin its value and as such any price spike above that could be considered to be purely speculative? As the article itself stated mining costs are becoming less and less relevant determining the value of bitcoin. My point here is the following: "Why bother trying to infer the price of Bitcoin from mining costs when the Stock to Flow model already correctly captures the 95% of the value of Bitcoin? I am not that worried about that 5%" Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: exstasie on January 06, 2021, 10:49:10 AM My point here is the following: "Why bother trying ti infer the price of Bitcoin from mining costs, when the Stock to Flow model already correctly captures the 95% of the value of Bitcoin? I am not that worried with that 5%" Based on a very small sample. How long that plays out into the future, we shall see. I think stock-to-flow comes off as voodoo to many. It's just so out of touch with traditional fundamental analysis. Quote But this long term upside based on an equalization of the market cap of bitcoin to that of gold for investment purposes is conditional on the volatility of bitcoin converging to that of gold over the long term. This implies that the above $146k theoretical bitcoin price target should be considered as a long-term target, and thus an unsustainable price target for this year. I think these are weak conclusions. Too much emphasis on the need for a decline in gold to fuel a rise in Bitcoin. I don't think they fully understand Bitcoin's scarcity dynamics, and how few consistently circulating BTC there really are. As for $146K being unattainable this year.....maybe, maybe not. Related to the above, I don't trust their ability to recognize the prospects for a speculative blow-off top. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on January 06, 2021, 11:07:30 AM I think these are weak conclusions. Too much emphasis on the need for a decline in gold to fuel a rise in Bitcoin. I don't think they fully understand Bitcoin's scarcity dynamics, and how few consistently circulating BTC there really are. You have to understand where they come from. Jp Morgan is (one of the best) investment banks in traditional finance. Hence their mindset is all about the difference between yielding and not yielding bearing assets. Scarcity is not a feature they are really understanding, as they are applying the traditional way of thinking in those investments. I am pretty satisfied, as it's a nice U-turn since the infamous Jamie Dimon statements a few years back. Just give them a few more years to complete their transformation. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on January 28, 2021, 06:16:47 PM JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity
Retail investors’ euphoria returns 08 January 2021 Quote Why the approval of a bitcoin ETF in the US would be negative for bitcoin in the near term?
Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on January 29, 2021, 02:31:10 PM JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity
Policy Shift 22 January 2021 Quote
Quote A review of the past year for bitcoin
Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: Lucius on January 29, 2021, 03:24:19 PM Interesting reading, especially if we take into account that it was written by JPM, which still has a very high place in the world of finance. The report focuses in large part on comparisons of gold and Bitcoin, and interestingly, the Bitcoin market cap should grow by about x4.5 to reach the value of all private investment in gold, which includes gold ETFs. According to JPM, millennials will play a big role in this in the coming years because they prefer digital then physical gold.
The fact that Bitcoin has equalized gold in terms of risk capital says a lot, especially if we take into account the fact that gold ETFs have recorded an outflow of $7 billion in the last few months. If the trend of institutional investment continues, with the evident growth of investment from retail investors, JPM predicts that in 2021 it is realistic to expect the price of BTC from $50k - $100k. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on February 05, 2021, 10:00:43 AM Hello.
I have been finally able to reproduce JPM Position proxy. They described it as: Quote to infer positioning in bitcoin futures, we use our open interest position proxy methodology that we also apply to other futures contracts, where we look at the cumulative weekly absolute changes in the open interest multiplied by the sign of the futures price change every week. The rationale behind this position proxy is that when there is a price increase, the net long position of spec investors increases also with the magnitude of the increase determined by the absolute change in the open interest. It does not matter whether the open interest rises or falls, as the net long position can increase either via fresh longs (increase in open interest) or a reduction of previous shorts (reduction in open interest). And vice versa. When there is a price decrease, the net long position of spec investors decreases also, with the magnitude of the decrease determined by the absolute change in the open interest. It does not matter whether the open interest rises or falls, as the net long position can decrease either via fresh shorts (increase in open interest) or reduction of previous longs (reduction in open interest) This the latest image: https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blob8cc25c13d620d430.jpeg This is what I got (added price for convenience): https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blob41aecd7d7f20bc84.png This is the Spreadsheet I used for. Position Proxy Indicator (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t8DDoiybjyjoxjbKCkGBu2EPibPolqApoWJQOYW53MY/edit?usp=sharing) Sadly, I haven't been able to find a publicly available source for aggregated open interest positions, maybe I have to dig a little bit more on tradingView. Also yes, it would be interesting if someone could reproduce this indicator in trading view! Stay tuned! Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: beerlover on February 05, 2021, 05:23:35 PM It is awesome that JP Morgan type of companies are finally seeing what we have seen for a decade now. Bitcoin has always been a great investment if you could make it at a good level but these companies never really understood or seen that for a long time. We are finally seeing these companies making a change and they are really doing it for smart reasons as well basically validating what we have been doing so far.
Five years ago or so if you invested 100k into bitcoin all-in and you said it is going to go up people would say that you were gambling your money away and you would be losing a lot of money from that investment, today people are investing tens of billions of dollars into bitcoin from huge corporations, that 5 year change from 100k being risky to tens of billions of dollars is basically a way of saying people who bought bitcoin were smart people and not idiots like people claimed back then. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on February 05, 2021, 11:07:22 PM It is awesome that JP Morgan type of companies are finally seeing what we have seen for a decade now. Bitcoin has always been a great investment if you could make it at a good level but these companies never really understood or seen that for a long time. We are finally seeing these companies making a change and they are really doing it for smart reasons as well basically validating what we have been doing so far. Five years ago or so if you invested 100k into bitcoin all-in and you said it is going to go up people would say that you were gambling your money away and you would be losing a lot of money from that investment, today people are investing tens of billions of dollars into bitcoin from huge corporations, that 5 year change from 100k being risky to tens of billions of dollars is basically a way of saying people who bought bitcoin were smart people and not idiots like people claimed back then. What puzzles me the most is how the banking sector, that has traditionally poached the best mind across all sectors, due to the financial power they had (for years salaries in the banking sector have been well above average), completely oversaw this opportunity. I can understand if we were talking about central bankers, the real target of the bitcoin revolution. But all other banks could well thrive in a new bitcoin standard, nevertheless, they decided to keep the eyes shut until the phenomenon was too big to ignore, and then they decided to ride it... Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: jaysabi on February 06, 2021, 06:41:27 AM I would not have expected stock values to lag that far behind bitcoin, considering stocks have been in a prolonged bull market for over a decade now--but nonetheless the bitcoin growth numbers are incredible! There's certainly been huge demand for it, particularly by all those companies that bought it as an alternative to cash (like MicroStrategy). Whew. It's been one hell of a year in many ways, but at least one positive that came out of 2020 is that bitcoin reached a new ATH. Stocks typically return 8-10% annually in aggregate, so 15% is quite robust. You have to remember that this is an the entire asset class of all stocks, and it's weighed down by a significant number of under performers. You would see the same weighted down effect if you looked at the entire crypto asset class instead of just bitcoin, and crypto as a whole would be significantly weighed down by the vast majority of under achievers. There are plenty of individual stocks that have outperformed bitcoin in the time period shown in the graph, however the graph only shows a single asset versus a broad asset class, so it is misleading in that it's not a like comparison. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on February 06, 2021, 09:55:44 AM <...> There are plenty of individual stocks that have outperformed bitcoin in the time period shown in the graph, however the graph only shows a single asset versus a broad asset class, so it is misleading in that it's not a like comparison. I do agree. Think of Tesla. The stock had a better return (https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/TSLA/performance) than Bitcoin (https://www.barchart.com/crypto/quotes/%5EBTCUSD/performance) this year. Not only, TSLA had a greater volatility than bitcoin during such period. This is something that I usually oppose to someone telling me "bitcoin is a toxic, volatile asset". Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: TheGreatPython on February 07, 2021, 03:32:46 PM This is a good thread and I noticed that other stocks/assets has been seriously lagging behind Bitcoin which has been seeing some huge increases in price. I am happy about that, and as we are now starting to have a lot of institutions that are becoming part of this great community I believe there will still be more to it, so I look forward to that.
Stocks typically return 8-10% annually in aggregate, so 15% is quite robust. Yep, I also noticed that, 15% is an improvement. Although in the case of bitcoin, I think it’s because it is still new and when it grows huge it might stop being as volatile, and the up and down wouldn’t be as much as it is now.Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: aesma on February 07, 2021, 10:53:13 PM fillippone : good finds. I wouldn't use Tesla as a benchmark as it is overvalued as a company, and it's not that special, it's still a car company, with some technology that doesn't really work yet (self-driving).
Bitcoin on the other hand is its own beast, and it is special for a couple reasons, one being the limited supply, the other being the mother/father of crypto. I'll keep that in mind : "current mining cost of $11k" and set up a buy order at that price...wait, I already did some time ago, I guess we think alike with JPM... Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on February 11, 2021, 01:04:06 PM Morgan Stanley:
Why Crypto Is Coming Out of the Shadows (https://www.morganstanley.com/pub/content/imweb/im/en-us/individual-investor/insights/articles/why-crypto-is-coming-out-of-the-shadows/) Quote If you were trying to doom a newly invented currency to irrelevance, naming it “cryptocurrency”1 would have been a crafty first step. “Crypto” means hidden or secret, and often describes a target of popular suspicion and fear, as in crypto-fascist or crypto-communist. But now, despite the jitters natural in a global pandemic, cryptocurrencies are rapidly gaining popular support as alternatives to gold (a store of value) and the dollar (as a means of payment). Nice read. Not very technical, but I guess ti is written for their general customers, rather than their agents. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on February 22, 2021, 03:48:20 PM JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity
Did Q4 rebalancing flows materialise? 9 February 2021 Quote
Quote Speculative bitcoin flows surge following Tesla’s announcement
Interesting to note that, notwithstanding the apparent stall in GBTC inflows, these still is a very bullish positioning highlighted by the proxy positioning indicator. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on March 01, 2021, 04:17:41 PM A very interesting and complete review of Bitcoin and Blockchain Technologies
BITCOIN At the Tipping Point (https://ir.citi.com/peFJTnzeEoMSIAEFlwH12VeM5d%2BCckWNrsO9lxpmyWezrz5V%2Bx%2FfRvm0gv6cWRpDHGWtIk7sTME%3D) A 100 plus long piece. I will report here the conlcusions: Quote Conclusion The philosopher Schopenhauer once remarked that “All truth passes through three stages. First it is ridiculed. Second it is violently opposed. Third it is accepted as being self-evident.”187 Though this sentiment was expressed more than 150 years before the emergence of Bitcoin, the introduction and evolution of the cryptocurrency illustrates this very human response to change. The idea that a new payment system relying on a decentralized cryptographic approach to facilitate transactions in an extrajudicial manner might gain traction and challenge traditional payment rails seemed like a pipedream in the early days of its release. This gave way to denouncements and restrictions as governments, banks, and regulators sought to limit its growth. As recent events have shown, however, that resistance may now be melting away. Large institutional investors and organizations are choosing to participate in and support Bitcoin. Regulators are beginning to lay the groundwork for the asset to potentially enter the mainstream. Governments themselves are being pressured and many are re-considering their own currency offerings. The vision of Bitcoin as a force that will transform the world may seem self-evident in just a few more years. The fact this progression has occurred in just over a decade makes Bitcoin remarkable regardless of its future. Throughout this journey, the perception of what makes Bitcoin unique continues to morph. Bitcoin is now many things. To some, it is a payment system based on new technology set to potentially drive a re-wiring of the entire payments landscape. To others it is a new currency that can store value in a unique way and marks a new model of issuance beyond the control of any one nation. Many focus on the limitations imposed on Bitcoin’s supply and liken it to digital gold, focusing on its value as an asset class. Those thinking about its future see the potential for Bitcoin to become a global facilitation currency helping to reduce the friction and complexity of cross-border trade. What Bitcoin has undoubtedly become is the inspiration for a rapidly evolving blockchain-based economy. Its core innovations were the building blocks that launched this ecosystem and those innovations themselves are now being extended and levered in new ways that are remaking the world of commerce and finance. Bitcoin’s existence has helped create a new landscape that in turn has spawned a whole set of altcoins and created a new, decentralized cryptocurrency market. All of these views about Bitcoin’s potential and how it influences and helps to inspire new business models emerging in the blockchain domain are what leads us to call it the North Star. Whether it maintains this position and how far the potential transformation it has inspired extends are both unknowable at this time, but Bitcoin’s journey has clearly entered a new stage. Our goal in this paper has been to help readers understand Bitcoin’s past, present, and possible future. Armed with a fuller understanding of what has driven Bitcoin’s growth and how it has spurred so much additional innovation and disruption should allow readers to better assess and determine their own view about Bitcoin’s value and understand how future news may facilitate additional growth or force a retrenchment and re-evaluation of its potential. Very long, yet interesting read. Thanks to @Plutosky who made me aware of this. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: acquafredda on March 01, 2021, 04:29:59 PM After years of blockchain not bitcoin useless brainwash now all the big banks and the wall street firms have to spend liters and liters of ink on BITCOIN which is the only thing that has ever mattered here! Thanks for sharing, this might fill my night's insomnia.
Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on March 01, 2021, 05:45:40 PM Another one!
Wall Street is on fire on those reports: Understanding Bitcoin Does bitcoin belong in asset allocation considerations? (https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/item/9901337.html) Quote KEY TAKEAWAYS
This one sports a more traditional approach. Very interesting on a the proposition in adding Bitcoin to a financial portfolio. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: acquafredda on March 02, 2021, 03:27:53 PM Another one! That is the most common strategy between traditional wealth and asset managers. Now that everyone's talking bitcoin they are suggesting a tiny exposure to counterbalance stocks, bonds and other traditional assets. Usually they propose between 1-5% btc exposure. Which is not bad on a multi-million portfolio.Wall Street is on fire on those reports: Understanding Bitcoin Does bitcoin belong in asset allocation considerations? (https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/literature/item/9901337.html) Quote KEY TAKEAWAYS
This one sports a more traditional approach. Very interesting on a the proposition in adding Bitcoin to a financial portfolio. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on March 02, 2021, 04:00:52 PM <...>That is the most common strategy between traditional wealth and asset managers. Now that everyone's talking bitcoin they are suggesting a tiny exposure to counterbalance stocks, bonds and other traditional assets. Usually they propose between 1-5% btc exposure. Which is not bad on a multi-million portfolio. As I wrote elsewhere (on my infamous Proudhon post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg56446132#msg56446132)). When I decided to buy bitcoin I made a few back of the envelope calculation. The first one was about gold parity, pointing to 350k dollar at the time (now more in the 500k region). A second one was about the answer of the following question: what if everyone put 1% of their financial wealth on bitcoin. So a few computation (getting updated figures for gold parity consistency): World financial wealth (Credit Suisse 2020) : 360 Trln 1% : 3.60 Trillion This has to becdivided over 21 million bitcoins (I want a conservative number) Target price: 170,000 USD Not bad. Bullish. My body is ready. This is why I am particularly excited when I hear someone suggesting a tiny %age allocation to bitcoin in big portfolios. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: acquafredda on March 02, 2021, 04:08:47 PM Yep, exactamundo!
You might find this interesting too https://www.seba.swiss/research/portfolio-diversification-contribution-of-digital-assets/ SEBA Bank is talking about crypto diversification for quite some time now and that makes sense since it is a bank which is basing its business model and value propositions on digital assets like bitcoin. They post quite interesting pieces every now and then, keep them monitored if you wish. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on March 03, 2021, 05:41:34 PM One Piece I forgot to add:
JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity US retail investors’ call option buying rises to new highs 2 February 2021 Quote Will the CME launch of ethereum futures contracts reverse recent price dynamics in a repeat of Dec 2017?
No pictures or graphs here. This was the original text. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on March 03, 2021, 05:52:13 PM JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity
The retail impulse remains strong 16 February 2021 Quote
Quote Has only $11bn of institutional flow into bitcoin since September-end caused a $700bn increase in its market cap?
Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on March 10, 2021, 09:29:56 AM JPM has a complex strategy on Bitcoin.
There is a flurry of reports from them: the latest is a presentation deck for their private clients, UHNW Individuals with more than 10 Mios $ of financial asset allocation. JPMorgan tells private wealth clients that bitcoin can be a portfolio diversifier 'if sized correctly' (https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/97257/jp-morgan-bitcoin-deck-private-client) Quote In a slide entitled "How others are valuing crypto?" the bank broke down three commonly used metrics taken by market participants that "suggest significant upside [of bitcoin] is possible." Under the so-called Metcalfe's law, which suggests the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users, bitcoin's per-coin valuation would be at $21,667. If comparing the current global value of gold to bitcoin by using the 21 million max supply of bitcoin, then bitcoin's valuation would be at $540,814. Finally, if applying the global value of money supply to the max supply of bitcoin, its value would be $1.9 million. https://www.tbstat.com/wp/uploads/2021/03/Screen-Shot-2021-03-05-at-1.57.26-PM-e1614923921645.png Apparently, they see the demand, albeit not at full potential (yet) but they don't want their client to miss the opportunity. So they are moving in different direction with a various degrees of "risks" and "innovations". See for example also this (https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/97815/jpmorgan-crypto-public-companies-basket-document-sec?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss): a very conservative way of getting crypto exposure. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: jaysabi on March 13, 2021, 10:41:24 PM JPM has a complex strategy on Bitcoin. There is a flurry of reports from them: the latest is a presentation deck for their private clients, UHNW Individuals with more than 10 Mios $ of financial asset allocation. JPMorgan tells private wealth clients that bitcoin can be a portfolio diversifier 'if sized correctly' (https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/97257/jp-morgan-bitcoin-deck-private-client) Quote In a slide entitled "How others are valuing crypto?" the bank broke down three commonly used metrics taken by market participants that "suggest significant upside [of bitcoin] is possible." Under the so-called Metcalfe's law, which suggests the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users, bitcoin's per-coin valuation would be at $21,667. If comparing the current global value of gold to bitcoin by using the 21 million max supply of bitcoin, then bitcoin's valuation would be at $540,814. Finally, if applying the global value of money supply to the max supply of bitcoin, its value would be $1.9 million. https://www.tbstat.com/wp/uploads/2021/03/Screen-Shot-2021-03-05-at-1.57.26-PM-e1614923921645.png Apparently, they see the demand, albeit not at full potential (yet) but they don't want their client to miss the opportunity. So they are moving in different direction with a various degrees of "risks" and "innovations". See for example also this (https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/97815/jpmorgan-crypto-public-companies-basket-document-sec?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss): a very conservative way of getting crypto exposure. The problem with the last metric is it assumes that bitcoin is a perfect replacement for the global money supply and has no other competitors as to where to allocate dollars, so it seems faulty to me to assume that bitcoin's value has to be proportionally equivalent to the total money supply in the world. In reality, as an asset class it competes against all other asset classes for an allocation in a portfolio, so people who don't want to hold dollars will choose between real estate, gold, equities, debt instruments, crypto and any other type of asset. Bitcoin could never represent all of it because it's not the only asset class. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on March 21, 2021, 02:55:47 PM DB Research
Part III. Bitcoins: Can the Tinkerbell Effect Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? 17 March 2021 https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blobad24bdaf741e0f20.png Quote
In the short term, Bitcoin is here to stay and its value will remain volatile
In the long term, Bitcoin, like Tesla, will have to transform potential into results to sustain its value proposition
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/bloba448886797351803.png Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on April 08, 2021, 09:32:51 AM Bloomberg Crypto Outlook Rising Bitcoin Adoption Tide 05 April 2021 https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blob94e9ce2809f43939.jpeg (https://fillippone.altervista.org/1060725_Crypto-Apr2021Outlook.pdf) https://fillippone.altervista.org/1060725_Crypto-Apr2021Outlook.pdf Quote ï‚· Electricity, Internet, Bitcoin, Digitalization, Dollar Dominance ï‚· Bitcoin Fills the Digital Reserve-Asset Need in Low-Yield World ï‚· Bitcoin Replacing Old-Guard Gold Is More Sudden Than Gradual ï‚· Dollar's Digital Dominance Eclipsing China Yuan Global Adoption ï‚· Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Is Gaining the Upper Hand Over Tesla Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on April 08, 2021, 11:36:50 AM Atlantic Equities
Coinbase Global Inc. 1 April 2021 https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blob2b841075eb1d46a1.jpeg (https://fillippone.altervista.org/CoinbaseListing.pdf) https://fillippone.altervista.org/CoinbaseListing.pdf Just only one detail: Quote Overweight Price Target $460.00 Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fullhdpixel on April 08, 2021, 07:46:46 PM That "adoption" line is very important, it shows how much bitcoin is getting the usage case as well as the investment part and that is what I care about. Honestly these wall street companies talking about bitcoin all this much really improves our chances to be taken seriously, the more positive things they talk about the better will be for us and that is why I care about that a lot, but at the end of the day we do not need to just talk about it, we need them to act on it.
For the past 40 days or so we haven't received any decent investment from these big companies, those billions of dollars spent on late months of 2020 and early months of 2021 is not happening for the past 40 days. They can talk as much as they want but if it is not providing us with billions of dollars worth of investments again, that is not going to mean anything in the end. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: jaysabi on April 11, 2021, 07:35:50 PM Atlantic Equities Coinbase Global Inc. 1 April 2021 https://i.imgur.com/hc6m5fd.jpg (https://fillippone.altervista.org/CoinbaseListing.pdf) https://fillippone.altervista.org/CoinbaseListing.pdf Just only one detail: Quote Overweight Price Target $460.00 The price target is for Coinbase. Interestingly, Coinbase hasn't started trading publicly yet but there is a tokenized version already trading and it's priced at $535 as of now. I was unfamiliar with this concept, but from the description: What are tokenized stocks? Equities are stocks that trade on traditional regulated exchanges. FTX lists tokens on select equities. These spot tokens are backed by shares of stock custodied by CM-Equity. They can be redeemed with CM-Equity for the underlying shares if desired. CM-Equity is fully regulated in Germany, and is a licensed financial institution permitted to offer such products. All FTX users who trade tokenized stocks may also have to become customers of CM-Equity, and pass through CM-Equity's KYC and compliance. Furthermore, all trading activity may be monitored for compliance by CM-Equity. CM-Equity custodies the equities at a third party brokerage firm. CM-Equity (not FTX Trading LTD) provides the brokerage services. It's offered from a licensed and regulated firm in Germany, and because the tokens are backed by the the shares, the token should trade in near-unison with the stock. So either Coinbase will is already expected to trade well above the target price listed above, or there's some information disparity currently and the token price will trade sharply down once Coinbase starts trading publicly. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on April 11, 2021, 11:04:02 PM It's offered from a licensed and regulated firm in Germany, and because the tokens are backed by the the shares, the token should trade in near-unison with the stock. So either Coinbase will is already expected to trade well above the target price listed above, or there's some information disparity currently and the token price will trade sharply down once Coinbase starts trading publicly. Very interesting. Gray markets have been there since the start of financial markets, but I would steer away from highly manipulated, unregulated markets if I were trying to infer anything on the real thing. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on April 12, 2021, 10:39:35 AM J.P. Morgan Research
Why is the Bitcoin futures curve so steep? 9 April 2021 https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blobd68f5c9d56b4d01d.png (https://fillippone.altervista.org/JPM_Bitcoin_futures_Contango.pdf) https://fillippone.altervista.org/JPM_Bitcoin_futures_Contango.pdf Really, really interesting analysis on one of the most crowded trades in bitcoin. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: paxmao on April 12, 2021, 11:52:54 AM To be honest, Wall Street predictions are crazier than ever and particularly crazier regarding bitcoin. Seriously, they have prediction spreads of x10 between Morgan, Goldman and all the rest of the so called investment experts. It is quite unusual to see these people diverge so much and my take is that they are absolutely confused about the whole crypto because they do not have the usual sources and methods that they use to deal with companies and other resources.
Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: jaysabi on April 16, 2021, 06:56:57 PM It's offered from a licensed and regulated firm in Germany, and because the tokens are backed by the the shares, the token should trade in near-unison with the stock. So either Coinbase will is already expected to trade well above the target price listed above, or there's some information disparity currently and the token price will trade sharply down once Coinbase starts trading publicly. Very interesting. Gray markets have been there since the start of financial markets, but I would steer away from highly manipulated, unregulated markets if I were trying to infer anything on the real thing. Well, this one would have been hard to manipulate since the tokenized version trades based on custody of actual shares, so it's just a way to trade something more easily that was locked away for accredited investors. That's one area I think tokens are very useful, as long as the entity sponsoring the token is a regulated financial entity in a country with strong financial regulation, as is the case here. To follow up on it, the token crashed hard when Coinbase started trading, which was one of the two outcomes I stated might happen. In retrospect, of course it was the cryptotraders who were wrong and hyped themselves into a risky position. :] I would expect the two to trade in near lockstep now. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on April 16, 2021, 08:37:02 PM Well, this one would have been hard to manipulate since the tokenized version trades based on custody of actual shares, <...> I would expect the two to trade in near lockstep now. Oh really? Is there a share backing up a token? Who says that? It took years to have an audit of the reserves of the biggest stablecoin: who is taking care of auditing this particular token? How can be a share backing up a token if the share wasn't quoted in the first place? Who am I trusting to deliver the payoff when needed? I would love to trust those "code is law" token, but as usual, I feel uncomfortable trusting someone I don't know without a clear legal framework. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: jaysabi on April 16, 2021, 09:47:25 PM To be honest, Wall Street predictions are crazier than ever and particularly crazier regarding bitcoin. Seriously, they have prediction spreads of x10 between Morgan, Goldman and all the rest of the so called investment experts. It is quite unusual to see these people diverge so much and my take is that they are absolutely confused about the whole crypto because they do not have the usual sources and methods that they use to deal with companies and other resources. Well yeah, it's hard to "value" something that's arbitrary and speculative. Bitcoin doesn't produce income and it doesn't produce cashflow, which are two things needed to determine a valuation of what it should be "worth" in the present. Bitcoin is just worth what the largest group of people at any one time agree it's worth. While this is true for stocks as well, stock valuations are at least tied to valuation metrics (not always at any given time, but ultimately always eventually). Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: jaysabi on April 16, 2021, 09:51:14 PM Well, this one would have been hard to manipulate since the tokenized version trades based on custody of actual shares, <...> I would expect the two to trade in near lockstep now. Oh really? Is there a share backing up a token? Who says that? It took years to have an audit of the reserves of the biggest stablecoin: who is taking care of auditing this particular token? How can be a share backing up a token if the share wasn't quoted in the first place? Who am I trusting to deliver the payoff when needed? I would love to trust those "code is law" token, but as usual, I feel uncomfortable trusting someone I don't know without a clear legal framework. Yes, the sponsor of the token (CM-Equity) has shares of Coinbase to back up each token and the tokens are redeemable for Coinbase shares on demand. These spot tokens are backed by shares of stock custodied by CM-Equity. They can be redeemed with CM-Equity for the underlying shares if desired. CM-Equity is fully regulated in Germany, and is a licensed financial institution permitted to offer such products. All FTX users who trade tokenized stocks may also have to become customers of CM-Equity, and pass through CM-Equity's KYC and compliance. Furthermore, all trading activity may be monitored for compliance by CM-Equity. CM-Equity custodies the equities at a third party brokerage firm. CM-Equity (not FTX Trading LTD) provides the brokerage services. Since this is a regulated financial institution in Germany, I'd expect this to be true. They'd be in for some huge fines if they made these representations and they were not true. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on May 24, 2021, 09:17:42 PM Goldman Sachs
Top of Mind:CRYPTO: A NEW ASSET CLASS? 21 May 2021 https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blobd5629323d2b7cb91.png (http://ttps://fillippone.altervista.org/Top_of_Mind_Crypto_a_new_asset_class.pdf) https://fillippone.altervista.org/Top_of_Mind_Crypto_a_new_asset_class.pdf Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on May 28, 2021, 10:20:44 AM Wells Fargo The investment rationale for cryptocurrencies May 2021 https://www01.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/images/the-private-bank/Cryptocurrencies%20-%20servers%20-%20700x313_2021-05-12T15_54_50.jpg (https://www.wellsfargo.com/investment-institute/sr_investment_rationale_for_cryptocurrencies/) https://www.wellsfargo.com/investment-institute/sr_investment_rationale_for_cryptocurrencies/ Quote Key takeaways
What it may mean for investors
Executive summary – What’s changed and why now? We believe that cryptocurrencies have evolved into a viable investment asset. There are over 9,000 cryptocurrencies, with $2.4 trillion in capitalization (as of May 7, 2021), and this depth and breadth allow additional analysis of their trends. 1 Short-term factors suggest further deepening of the market. We believe long-term supply and demand trends support further industry growth, the potential for further compression in price volatility, and a possible role as portfolio diversifiers. Several crucial events in 2020 drew increased mainstream usage in transactions and accelerated the maturation of cryptocurrency markets. First, banks received regulatory permission to custody cryptocurrencies, and the investment industry and regulators took additional steps to extend a legal and oversight framework that should help solidify cryptocurrencies as investable assets. The coronavirus pandemic also played a role by fast-tracking the digital economy, as the return to near-zero interest rates sparked inflation fears and interest in alternative payment systems. Evolving markets for investable assets often introduce unique risks that require deeper due diligence. The main known cryptocurrency risks include the possibility of additional regulation and various operational risks associated with making transactions. Periods of persistently high volatility remain likely as maturation occurs. These potential risks and the need for ongoing due diligence underscore our preference that qualified investors consider a professionally managed option. We classify any cryptocurrency or digital asset investment as an Alternative Investment. In general, assets in the Alternative Investments category entail some combination of nontraditional sources of return, potential long-term diversification, complexity, potential illiquidity premiums, and higher volatility. Exposure through a professionally managed fund potentially may serve alongside private equity and debt strategies as the primary means of capturing long-term trends from fintech and other secular developments arising from digitization in the economy. 2 Additional investment structures may arrive in the not-too-distant future. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on June 01, 2021, 10:29:58 PM A new report from Arane Research, powered by Bitstamp.
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/blobff0e124ee32a08f6.png (https://fillippone.altervista.org/the-state-of-bitcoin-as-collateral-march-21.pdf) Quote The case for bitcoin as collateral The value of the global market for collateral is estimated to be close to $20 trillion in assets. Government bonds and cash-based securities alike are currently the most important parts of a well- functioning collateral market. However, in that, there is a growing weakness as rehypothecation creates a systemic risk in the financial system as a whole. The increasing reuse of collateral makes these assets far from risk-free and shows the potential instability of the financial markets and that it is more fragile than many would like to admit. Bitcoin could become an important part of the solution and challenge the dominating collateral assets in the future. Bitcoin's unique properties make it the perfect collateral asset Bitcoin's combination of properties is unlike those of any other asset classes: It is an asset without both counterparty risk and credit risk. It is available for trading 24/7, 365 days a year, all over the world. In addition, it is the most portable asset the world has ever seen. Bitcoin can be transferred around the world, instantly, at almost no cost, any time of the day, and any day of the year, and with full finality. No other assets can match these properties today, making bitcoin the perfect collateral asset for the future. A potential trillion-dollar market The current size of the collateral markets is estimated to almost $20 trillion in assets. Our estimates show the huge potential for bitcoin as collateral, even if it just captures a few percentages of the existing market. Based on our calculations and data collected for this report, we estimate that around 625,000 BTC are used as collateral in the crypto market today, or approximately $30 billion. This number is based on estimations of collateral held in the derivatives market, in relation to bitcoin collateralized lending and tokenized BTC in Decentralized Finance (DeFi). Comparing this number of 625,000 BTC to the total collateral market, shows that bitcoin collateral only accounts for 0.15% of the total collateral market today but the market is growing rapidly. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: bocyaj on June 03, 2021, 12:01:15 AM In this thread I will collect various Research papers published by Wall Street Banks on Bitcoin. Banking sectors have begun to cover Bitcoin in Various aspects. A few reports are quite remarkable, so will deserve their own thread. Some other are important for a minor reason, but maybe they are referenced on other news, or papers without proper reporting, and it is often difficult to read the original article. I will use those to collate and reference into other thread, publishing graphs and paragraph linked to these research. I won't be able to post full documents to protect my sources, obviously. All reported material will be quoted. My comments will be out of quotes. If you find some missing article, or want to read a particular one, just ask, I will unleash my hounds to fetch the missing pieces. Now bank accepted the online transaction for bitcoin.In countries like India,the liquidity and flow of coin was reduced by making 00101010he statement by RBI.Before investing,you should cross verify the team.The crowd sale will happen and team should concentrate on the future Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on June 15, 2021, 09:28:46 PM Either or this thread is becoming too big, or investment Banks are ramping up Bitcoin reporting:
Goldman Sachs Digital Assets: Beauty Is Not in the Eye of the Beholder June 2021 https://i.imgur.com/dWnjoY9.png (http://https://fillippone.altervista.org/digital-assets-beauty-is-not-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder.pdff) https://fillippone.altervista.org/digital-assets-beauty-is-not-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder.pdf https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/16/bloba6f235560c14d2e6.png (http://https://fillippone.altervista.org/digital-assets-beauty-is-not-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder.pdff) Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on October 08, 2021, 05:24:32 PM JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity
The challenge from positive bond-equity correlation resurfaces 06 October 2021 Quote
Quote Institutional investors appear to be returning to bitcoin perhaps seeing it as a better inflation hedge than gold. There are tentative signs that the previous shift away from gold into bitcoin seen during most of Q4 2020 and the beginning of 2021 has started reemerging in recent weeks
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/15/blobd6b65d1b74e8ef89.jpeg Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on January 13, 2022, 09:55:00 PM Ark Investment published a really interesting report on Valuing bitcoin, focusing on this unique attribute as a financial assets, adding a new dimension to the analysis: onchain data.
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/15/blob48d6bf1dd68c2f67.jpeg (https://fillippone.altervista.org/ARKInvest_123021_Whitepaper_OnChainData.pdf) Quote Introduction Bitcoin’s inability to fit neatly within the framework associated with traditional asset classes has prevented many institutional investors from adopting it. Instead of considering its unique attributes, skeptical investors seem to have concluded that Bitcoin (the blockchain) and bitcoin (the cryptocurrency) cannot be analyzed fundamentally. In this white paper, we illustrate how on-chain data offers a new framework for analyzing emerging monetary assets like bitcoin. As institutional investors gain exposure to bitcoin, we believe that the network’s three data layers will enhance their understanding of and confidence in its underlying fundamentals. Quote Conclusion Because bitcoin does not resemble a traditional asset, many investors seem to be grappling with ways to analyze it fundamentally. While conventional analytical frameworks are not suitable, the Bitcoin blockchain offers a unique set of tools that investors can leverage to assess its fundamentals. In the same way that a government statistical agency publishes data about a country’s population and economy, or a public company publishes quarterly financial statements disclosing growth rates and earnings, Bitcoin provides a real-time, global ledger that publishes data about the network’s activity and inner economics. Without central control, Bitcoin’s blockchain provides open-source data, its integrity a function of the network’s transparency. In our view, investors increasingly will appreciate bitcoin’s investment merits through the lens of a completely new framework: on-chain data. The authors of this paper are ARK’s Yassine Elmandjra and David Puell. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on January 15, 2022, 10:30:59 AM I don't know if you can classify it as a Wall Street Report on Bitcoin, but it's a gargantuan 165 report on the status of the crypto world today and future theses for the next year from Messari:
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/15/blob401ed424ada7b80d.jpeg (https://messari.io/pdf/messari-report-crypto-theses-for-2022.pdf) Here you have the introduction: Quote Welcome Ho, Ho, Ho. ’ll keep this brief, since the rest of this report is not. The Theses started as a tweet thread four years ago on New Year’s Day. Along with the rest of the crypto industry, the report has exploded in size and complexity each year since. I write it for our team - to highlight the amazing work they’ve done throughout the year, and to synthesize the crypto chaos for any new hires. I write it for myself - to organize my monkey mind and create a mental model for crypto and an index of the best available research. And, of course, I write for you. Whether you’re a crypto novice or a multi-cycle veteran, I try to deliver a free, comprehensive 201-level crypto course with 101-level intros and links as an annual holiday gift to those who will find it helpful. In return, you get to yell at me for typos (thanks!), mis-summarizing your favorite coins (do better marketing!), omitting the #246 asset by market cap (I’m not a short-seller!), and copy pasta-ing other people’s ideas throughout (good artists copy, great artists steal). A couple of disclaimers before you dive in: 1. The alpha in this report is free, and many have gleaned insights from past reports that helped them make money, but nothing herein is investment advice. Be an adult. 2. I stand on the shoulders of giants. In certain chapters, I borrow liberally from other authors who have already delivered amazing insights on a given topic. Nic Carter and Lyn Alden in the bitcoin section. Punk6529 and Ben Yu in the NFT section. Watkins and Wilson and Mason and Roberto et al in the DeFi, ETH & Friends, and DAO sections. Balaji and Chris Dixon throughout. By reading on, you accept my terms of service, which includes the provision that any accidental plagiarism of the above cited authors is unintentional and will be corrected ex post facto. (Do you want a free report or do you want MLA-level standards and the boredom that comes with mind-numbing citation?) 3. This beast took me ~250 hours to write (8-10% of my annual bandwidth). Every year, I secretly root for it to flop to spare me from the temptation of writing another one. If you like the report, you can thank the Messari team for running the business in my absence last month. They accept thank you’s in the form of followers and Pro subscriptions. I accept thank you’s in the form of 5-6 figure Enterprise subs and Hub memberships. 4. I own assets discussed in this report. My core holdings are disclosed at the end of Chapter 1 (along with those of the rest of the Messari team), and any angel or liquid investments I have made to date are marked with an asterisk. No conflicts, no interest. This report caps an epic year for crypto and for Messari. In 2021, we grew the size of our team ~4x and revenues ~8x. We raised a Series A, and launched a killer new product every quarter - Intel in Q1, our Analyst Hub in Q2, Mainnet in Q3, and some new tools for DAOs that we’ll be unveiling next week. Next year will be even bigger. We’re hiring. A lot. And we pay $10,000 per engineering referral if you know any good ones (or are one yourself). We’re also doing something fun this year, and auctioning off a bunch of Theses-related NFTs for charity. Our “heroes” collection includes artwork for the top people to watch this year. They’ll get a special personal edition of the art as a keepsake, but the remainder are 1/1 NFTs that we’re auctioning through our partner OpenSea. (Commissioner Peirce’s NFT looks particularly rare.) We also have a series of battlescenes in the collection that are pure fire. Thanks to Jaen for the inspiring work and inspiration. This is an NFT test run for us, and we’ll have more to come. You might want to buy an annual Pro subscription to keep up with 2022 developments. Just saying. As always, I am humbled you would consider reading this report and appreci...oh who am I kidding, this report is f*cking incredible, and like Kanye at one of his concerts, I’m jealous you get to read it with fresh eyes.* Because I’m honestly sick of looking at it. Happy Holidays, próspero año y felicidad, and as always, wear a helmet. -TBI *Kidding. Kinda Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: paxmao on January 16, 2022, 11:32:56 PM To be honest, Wall Street predictions are crazier than ever and particularly crazier regarding bitcoin. Seriously, they have prediction spreads of x10 between Morgan, Goldman and all the rest of the so called investment experts. It is quite unusual to see these people diverge so much and my take is that they are absolutely confused about the whole crypto because they do not have the usual sources and methods that they use to deal with companies and other resources. Well yeah, it's hard to "value" something that's arbitrary and speculative. Bitcoin doesn't produce income and it doesn't produce cashflow, which are two things needed to determine a valuation of what it should be "worth" in the present. Bitcoin is just worth what the largest group of people at any one time agree it's worth. While this is true for stocks as well, stock valuations are at least tied to valuation metrics (not always at any given time, but ultimately always eventually). Yes, that is quite right. These guys are also used to value commodities, a market in which having the right (expensive) sources of information on the evolution of demand and offer do give all the advantage to the larger trading and investment houses over the shrimps out there. However, with bitcoin, those sources of privileged - let's rather call them "advanced" - information are not that well known and are not that readily available only at the right price. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on January 25, 2022, 11:39:27 PM ARK investment published their Big Ideas 2022.
https://i.ibb.co/RP87r9M/59078178.png (https://fillippone.altervista.org/ARK_BigIdeas2022.pdf) Of course there is a section dedicated to Bitcoin. https://i.ibb.co/LYGKK8T/59078178.png (https://fillippone.altervista.org/ARK_BigIdeas2022.pdf) Of course there is a lot of bullish materials in this presentation. Something you could use to convince as skeptics to invest in Bitcoin! Classic Katie Wood. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on February 08, 2022, 11:44:22 PM Wells Fargo
Cryptocurrencies - Too early or too late 7 February 2022 https://i.ibb.co/GCk7S5c/59195301.png (https://saf.wellsfargoadvisors.com/emx/dctm/Research/wfii/wfii_reports/Investment_Strategy/cryptocurrency020722.pdf) The most interesting part is the comparison of Crypto adoption compared to Internet in the '90's Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on April 21, 2022, 08:55:20 PM Morgan Stanley
Buying a Coffee with Crypto April 21, 2022 https://i.ibb.co/JtWPhWH/59930470.png (https://fillippone.altervista.org/CRYPTOCURRENCY_20220421_0000.pdf) This report is a clear reference to Jack Maller's presentation at Bitcoin Conference 2022 Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: CaptainCrapper on April 22, 2022, 01:19:11 PM In this thread I will collect various Research papers published by Wall Street Banks on Bitcoin. some country trying to legalize this BTC and some county doing stopping the transaction it totally depends on the stop wair so we are just waiting to get very good something by using BTC transactions.Banking sectors have begun to cover Bitcoin in Various aspects. A few reports are quite remarkable, so will deserve their own thread. Some other are important for a minor reason, but maybe they are referenced on other news, or papers without proper reporting, and it is often difficult to read the original article. I will use those to collate and reference into other thread, publishing graphs and paragraph linked to these research. I won't always be able to post full documents to protect my sources, obviously, as often those materials come with a watermark. All reported material will be quoted. My comments will be out of quotes. If you find some missing article, or want to read a particular one, just ask, I will unleash my hounds to fetch the missing pieces. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on May 04, 2022, 10:30:04 AM BBG May crypto Outlook is Out:
https://i.ibb.co/b2Sy8DL/60040917.jpg (https://fillippone.altervista.org/BBG_May_Cryptos_Outlook.pdf) Delusional analysis on how the monetary policies by the FED can influence theCryptos. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on June 25, 2022, 06:13:14 PM Fidelity released a very simple “Valuing bitcoin” paper.
Valuing Bitcoin (https://fillippone.altervista.org/valuing-bitcoin-report.pdf) https://i.ibb.co/GVy0pmR/60442107.jpg (https://fillippone.altervista.org/valuing-bitcoin-report.pdf) They describe both supply side models, such as PlanB’s stock to flow, and demand based models, based on S-shaped adoption curves and Metcalfe’s law. https://i.ibb.co/Jzr8Q2J/60442138.jpg (https://fillippone.altervista.org/valuing-bitcoin-report.pdf) Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: $anounimus$ on October 05, 2022, 04:38:47 AM In this thread I will collect various Research papers published by Wall Street Banks on Bitcoin. I really appreciate what you have done in conveying the key points of the Research paper published by Wall Street Banks on Bitcoin. However, the main question is whether the general public knows about it or not and whether they will consider using it in the future as a result. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: CageMabok on October 05, 2022, 04:52:09 AM I really appreciate what you have done in conveying the key points of the Research paper published by Wall Street Banks on Bitcoin. However, the main question is whether the general public knows about it or not and whether they will consider using it in the future as a result. People in general will definitely know about it if a more widespread publication is made, because it is published to be known by many people, especially those who are familiar with Bitcoin and also often use banking services when withdrawing money or sending money in certain countries. In the future the use of Bitcoin through adoption will be more and more because it is based on the development of Bitcoin which has penetrated throughout the world even though not everyone in this world has used Bitcoin. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: justdimin on October 05, 2022, 05:38:42 PM I really appreciate what you have done in conveying the key points of the Research paper published by Wall Street Banks on Bitcoin. However, the main question is whether the general public knows about it or not and whether they will consider using it in the future as a result. People in general will definitely know about it if a more widespread publication is made, because it is published to be known by many people, especially those who are familiar with Bitcoin and also often use banking services when withdrawing money or sending money in certain countries. In the future the use of Bitcoin through adoption will be more and more because it is based on the development of Bitcoin which has penetrated throughout the world even though not everyone in this world has used Bitcoin. That’s why it’s going to be easy for us to grow in adoption due to these publications. It is great that they are collected all in here in a single topic, it allows us to read them easier instead of researching for them. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on October 13, 2022, 12:14:43 PM It is true that the more these big names end up doing publications regarding bitcoin and giving it credibility, the more there will be people investing into it. Places like citibank making claims about bitcoin, even if it was bad or when it is good, doesn't matter, it gives credibility to it, they speak it into existence, if it's good then because it is good, if it is bad then there are people who hate these big names and will invest because of that. I think that many publications have the added value of being proposed by opponents to the Bitcoin Standard, so they approach the question from an adverse point of view. Reading about bitcoin in this "wrong" optic, also help you to focalise on "why" legacy banks are so averse to bitcoin, and so love the protocol even more. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on November 03, 2022, 10:23:56 AM Fidelity
Fidelity Digital Assets Research Institutional Investor Digital Assets Study: Key Findings October 2022 https://i.ibb.co/gP2N2TF/61231177.jpg (https://fillippone.altervista.org/2022_Institutional_Investor_Digital_Assets_Study.pdf) Quote Since 2018, Fidelity Digital AssetsSM has conducted an annual study to better understand institutional investors’ perceptions of and approach to digital assets. In this preliminary report on the Fidelity Digital AssetsSM 2022 Institutional Investor Digital Assets Study, we highlight key data showing trends in overall adoption across the U.S., Europe, and Asia, and how institutional investors are thinking about the role of digital assets in investment portfolios. Digital asset markets are incredibly dynamic and 2022 has been no exception. This study reflects the sentiments and behaviors of respondents in the first half of the year, but we recognize that the market developments of the second half and the macro environment look different. As a result, in the coming months, a follow-up to this key findings report will provide additional analysis on how the events of the latter half of the year may have shifted some perceptions—along with more institutional investor insights into broader use of blockchain technology, like tokenization and DeFi. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on November 22, 2022, 08:56:00 PM BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg Intelligence: Could GBTC Liquidate? What We Know Liquidation of GBTC Isn't Viable Option for Grayscale's Business https://i.ibb.co/nLxZQcW/61333938.png (https://fillippone.altervista.org/Liquidation_of_GBTC_Isn_t_Viable_Option_for_Grayscale_s_Business__RDCTD2.pdf) Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on December 14, 2022, 11:08:42 AM Goldman Sachs
Top of Mind:CRYPTO: THE NIGHT OF CRYPTO'S DISCONTENTS 9 December 2022 https://i.ibb.co/r6wQHZ8/61441051.jpg (http://fillippone.altervista.org/Top%20of%20Mind_%20The%20winter%20of%20crypto's%20discontents_red.pdf) Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin: JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity Post by: Fullbear2222 on December 19, 2022, 09:59:31 PM JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity How has the investment landscape changed during 2020? 21 December 2020 Summary: Quote
Relevant Bitcoin Parts: Quote
Quote
Now a really interesting part: Quote Inflows the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust still too big to allow any position unwinding by momentum traders to create sustained negative price dynamics
Quote
Apart every speculation about Grayscale, I think I have addressed in my thread, I think the interesting part is the proxy positioning based on Open Interest. An Indicator I will try to reproduce in TradingView. EDIT: Zerohedge referenced to this article, with various comments Bitcoin At $650,000? One Stunning Chart, And Why JPMorgan Thinks Nothing Can Stop It Now (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-650000-one-stunning-chart-and-why-jpmorgan-thinks-nothing-can-stop-bitcoin-now) Omg that too complecated.... Just tell me guys Im getting money or losing? Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin: JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity Post by: JayJuanGee on December 20, 2022, 05:22:12 AM [edited out] Omg that too complecated....Just tell me guys Im getting money or losing? OMG Fullbear2222. Get a grip!!!!! Who knows what's happening with you, except for you (and maybe you don't even seem to know? since you are quoting posts from 2 years ago, and then not explaining how that 2-year old information relates to today). Also, you have ONLY been registered on the forum for a couple of months - so it could be possible that your time preference is too high (you are expecting positive returns in too short of a timeframe.. perhaps?), and you may well need to chill the fuck out and figure out a financial management strategy that might include bitcoin accumulation that might work for you for 4-10 years or longer.. depending on your various other financial and mental circumstances. When you invest into bitcoin, at minimum you should be attempting to consider your cashflow, how much bitcoin you have already accumulated, your other investments, your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and your time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments. It can take a long time to figure out each of the subcategories within the above-outlined individual considerations, yet no one has to figure them all out at one time or before getting started investing in bitcoin.. and accordingly any person could start by investing relatively small amounts or investing some amount that they believe to be reasonable and prudent - and continue to study their own circumstances along the way, and perhaps tweak their investing strategy from time to time along the way, as they are learning. The first considerations on the above list are more basic, and the later considerations on the list are more advanced, so of course, on a personal level, I have frequently striven to get the basics in order before getting into the more advanced strategies and techniques. So ultimately, if you are reading information that seems too complicated for you, and you are asking for feedback on a forum in respect to your own personal financial and perhaps mental circumstances, then you likely need to start out more slowly.. especially if you are having trouble understanding and appreciating how 2-year old information about bitcoin might relate to your own current personal financial/mental circumstances. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin: JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity Post by: fillippone on December 20, 2022, 12:49:35 PM <wall of text> I applaud you, @JayJuanGee for the effort you put in that answer. I was so happy someone posted on this thread that apparently is a monologue of mine (not that too much discussion is required here, btw). But when I realised the poor quality of the post I was a little bit discouraged. Nevertheless, you showed me how to deal with that! Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: fillippone on December 20, 2023, 09:16:22 AM I resume this thread to post a series of 2024 analysis by various Institutional players.
All of these research are public available, some of them just require an email (even a throw away one) to read it. No restricted material has been provided. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: Wind_FURY on December 20, 2023, 09:53:33 AM The "Cockroach Theory" by The Economist.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/18/why-bitcoin-is-up-by-almost-150-this-year The title might confuse many people into believing that the article is merely another negative essay written to misinform and gaslight its readers. It's probably an article written by someone who is, or probably WAS against Bitcoin, BUT also probably has accepted the fact that it is not going away. 8) Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: JayJuanGee on December 20, 2023, 05:23:06 PM I resume this thread to post a series of 2024 analysis by various Institutional players.
All of these research are public available, some of them just require an email (even a throw away one) to read it. No restricted material has been provided. Wow! No wonder so many people believe that there is such a thing as "crypto," especially since no one seems inclined to even use the word bitcoin in their title... Might it not be more accurate to entitle something like this.. "Report on bitcoin, and various shitcoins (and affinity scams)"? The "Cockroach Theory" by The Economist. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/18/why-bitcoin-is-up-by-almost-150-this-year The title might confuse many people into believing that the article is merely another negative essay written to misinform and gaslight its readers. It's probably an article written by someone who is, or probably WAS against Bitcoin, BUT also probably has accepted the fact that it is not going away. 8) At least he was not afraid to use the word "Bitcoin" in the main title, but then still devolved into putting that dumb-ass meaningless term into the subtitle. The title itself must be worth something in terms of showing how scared "they" are. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: Wind_FURY on December 21, 2023, 02:39:04 PM The "Cockroach Theory" by The Economist. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/18/why-bitcoin-is-up-by-almost-150-this-year The title might confuse many people into believing that the article is merely another negative essay written to misinform and gaslight its readers. It's probably an article written by someone who is, or probably WAS against Bitcoin, BUT also probably has accepted the fact that it is not going away. 8) At least he was not afraid to use the word "Bitcoin" in the main title, but then still devolved into putting that dumb-ass meaningless term into the subtitle. The title itself must be worth something in terms of showing how scared "they" are. Pardon those people. Because they are economists and "scholars" of an old system, for them it will probably take 10 more years before they could finally accept Bitcoin in its totality as the next evolutionary step for money. They might also say that it's "our" Tour De Force, and how it was ahead of its time. But was it? Plebs have already known that it would be so, not because they were HODLing/using the asset, but because the common, Bitcoin pleb today had already a basic, fundamental understanding of the network, of the incentive structure - what makes everything stick together, and of the importance of censorship-resistance - Bitcoin's main value proposition. Title: Re: Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin Post by: btc78 on December 22, 2023, 11:28:09 AM The "Cockroach Theory" by The Economist. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/18/why-bitcoin-is-up-by-almost-150-this-year The title might confuse many people into believing that the article is merely another negative essay written to misinform and gaslight its readers. It's probably an article written by someone who is, or probably WAS against Bitcoin, BUT also probably has accepted the fact that it is not going away. 8) At least he was not afraid to use the word "Bitcoin" in the main title, but then still devolved into putting that dumb-ass meaningless term into the subtitle. The title itself must be worth something in terms of showing how scared "they" are. Pardon those people. Because they are economists and "scholars" of an old system, for them it will probably take 10 more years before they could finally accept Bitcoin in its totality as the next evolutionary step for money. it is not uncommon for the older generation to reject ideas especially new ones because they think that their way is always the better one and probably the best too but economists or scholars as you call them being skeptical about new ways surprises me mainly because economists should know that there is nothing constant with markets and they are always fluctuating which goes the same way for trends and other systematic inventions maybe in the next few years, even as early as next year, those who are still quite skeptical of bitcoin can finally realize that this is now the future |