Wall Street Reports On Bitcoin

[CageMabok]

I really appreciate what you have done in conveying the key points of the Research paper published by Wall Street Banks on Bitcoin. However, the main question is whether the general public knows about it or not and whether they will consider using it in the future as a result.

People in general will definitely know about it if a more widespread publication is made, because it is published to be known by many people, especially those who are familiar with Bitcoin and also often use banking services when withdrawing money or sending money in certain countries.

In the future the use of Bitcoin through adoption will be more and more because it is based on the development of Bitcoin which has penetrated throughout the world even though not everyone in this world has used Bitcoin.

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[justdimin]

I really appreciate what you have done in conveying the key points of the Research paper published by Wall Street Banks on Bitcoin. However, the main question is whether the general public knows about it or not and whether they will consider using it in the future as a result.

People in general will definitely know about it if a more widespread publication is made, because it is published to be known by many people, especially those who are familiar with Bitcoin and also often use banking services when withdrawing money or sending money in certain countries.

In the future the use of Bitcoin through adoption will be more and more because it is based on the development of Bitcoin which has penetrated throughout the world even though not everyone in this world has used Bitcoin.

It is true that the more these big names end up doing publications regarding bitcoin and giving it credibility, the more there will be people investing into it. Places like citibank making claims about bitcoin, even if it was bad or when it is good, doesn't matter, it gives credibility to it, they speak it into existence, if it's good then because it is good, if it is bad then there are people who hate these big names and will invest because of that.

That’s why it’s going to be easy for us to grow in adoption due to these publications. It is great that they are collected all in here in a single topic, it allows us to read them easier instead of researching for them.

[fillippone]

It is true that the more these big names end up doing publications regarding bitcoin and giving it credibility, the more there will be people investing into it. Places like citibank making claims about bitcoin, even if it was bad or when it is good, doesn't matter, it gives credibility to it, they speak it into existence, if it's good then because it is good, if it is bad then there are people who hate these big names and will invest because of that.

I think that many publications have the added value of being proposed by opponents to the Bitcoin Standard, so they approach the question from an adverse point of view.
Reading about bitcoin in this "wrong" optic, also help you to focalise on "why" legacy banks are so averse to bitcoin, and so love the protocol even more.

[fillippone]

Fidelity
Fidelity Digital Assets Research

Institutional Investor Digital Assets Study: Key Findings
October 2022

Since 2018, Fidelity Digital AssetsSM has conducted an annual study to better understand institutional investors’ perceptions of and approach to digital assets. In this preliminary report on the Fidelity Digital AssetsSM 2022 Institutional Investor Digital Assets Study, we highlight key data showing trends in overall adoption across the U.S., Europe, and Asia, and how institutional investors are thinking about the role of digital assets in investment portfolios. Digital asset markets are incredibly dynamic and 2022 has been no exception. This study reflects the sentiments and behaviors of respondents in the first half of the year, but we recognize that the market developments of the second half and the macro environment look different. As a result, in the coming months, a follow-up to this key findings report will provide additional analysis on how the events of the latter half of the year may have shifted some perceptions—along with more institutional investor insights into broader use of blockchain technology, like tokenization and DeFi.

[fillippone]

BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg Intelligence:
Could GBTC Liquidate? What We Know
Liquidation of GBTC Isn't Viable Option for Grayscale's Business

[fillippone]

Goldman Sachs
Top of Mind:CRYPTO: THE NIGHT OF CRYPTO'S DISCONTENTS
9 December 2022

[Fullbear2222]

JP Morgan Flows & Liquidity
How has the investment landscape changed during 2020?
21 December 2020

Summary:

• In percentage terms, the expansion of the equity universe has been smaller than that of the bond or cash universe.
  
• Private asset classes lagged the growth of public asset classes.
• Alternative “currencies” such as Gold and Bitcoin have been the main beneficiaries of the pandemic in relative terms.
• Within equities, the EM Asia universe grew the most, while Latam contracted.
• With credit, the strongest growth has been in Euro HY.
• Among investor types, retail funds such as Mutual Funds and ETFs and SWFs appear to have seen double-digit growth in their AUM this year, thus increasing their share in the total investor universe. HFs, as well as pension funds and insurance companies saw low single digit AUM growth instead.
• We find it difficult not to characterize bitcoin as overbought at the moment.
• At the same time, we acknowledge that the inflows into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, at $1bn per month currently, are too big to allow any position unwinding by momentum traders to create sustained negative price dynamics similar to the ones seen before in the second half of 2019.
• Any signs of significant slowing in the flow trajectory for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust would raise the risk of a bitcoin correction similar to the one seen in the second half of 2019.

Relevant Bitcoin Parts:

• As the year comes to a close it is useful to look at how the investment landscape changed during 2020.
  How have different asset classes and types of investors fared in terms of overall growth during a year dominated by the impact of the global pandemic and policy responses to it? Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the overall changes in broader asset classes in dollar terms as well as relative to their end-2019 levels, and includes the 4% contraction in global GDP for 2020 that our economists have in their forecast for context. The most striking increase has been in the total outstanding debt which in 1H20 had already increased by around $14tr, almost matching our previous projection for 2020 in total of $16tr 16tr (see F&L More debt, more liquidity, more asset reflation, Jul 6th). As a result, we now project total debt growth for 2020 of $21tr, reflecting continued strong bond issuance in particular. Of this total, the increase in bonds accounts for around $13tr reflecting a significant increase in government deficits as they sought to smooth the impact on incomes as well as record corporate bond issuance as companies sought to increase their cash buffers to weather the shock on cash flows. The remainder is a combination of bank loans, shorter-maturity paper such as bills, EM local debt and other non-marketable debt.
  
  

	Fig.1	Fig.2

• Moreover, this increase in debt is also reflected in a significant increase in cash, by $9tr in terms of M2 global money supply. Partly, this is a consequence of the increase in debt as bank loans directly create deposits. And while bond issuance does not create deposits directly in the same way bank lending does, when QE purchases by central banks absorb (mostly government) bonds from the portfolios of private non-bank investors, such as pension funds, asset managers and insurance companies, liquidity or money supply is being created.
• The universe of global equities has expanded by a similar order of magnitude to the expansion in bonds, i.e. by around $11tr. That is lower in dollar terms than the expansion in bonds, but larger than either cash or bonds held by non-bank investors. However in percentage terms the expansion in the equity universe has been smaller. This helps explain why equity weights in non-bank investor portfolios have only risen just above their post-Lehman averages despite global equity prices reaching new all-time highs.
• Private asset classes such as private equity, private debt, infrastructure, private real estate and natural resources, a $7.2tr universe at the end of 2019 according to Preqin, likely grew by around $640bn this year based on our estimates. This represents close to 9% growth, significantly below the 15%/17% growth for public equities/bonds. Alternative “currencies” such as Gold and Bitcoin have been the main beneficiaries of the pandemic in relative terms growing their assets (for investment purposes) by 27% and 227%, respectively.
• Looking across asset classes at a more granular level we find that just over half of the increase in the equity universe comes from US equities, with EM Asia another strong beneficiary. In percentage terms, however, EM Asia has seen a larger increase, likely in part reflecting the fact that China is one of the few countries globally where our economists forecast positive GDP growth for 2020, while Latam has seen a contraction in dollar terms. Within credit, unsurprisingly the largest increase in terms of market value has been USD HG, reflecting that nearly $1tr of net issuance. In percentage terms, however, the strongest growth has been by far in Euro HY, which is up by almost 50% over the past year.
• Across investor types retail funds such as Mutual Funds and ETFs (a $52tr universe currently) have seen the strongest percentage growth with Equity funds leading, followed by Money Market funds and Balanced/Hybrid funds, while Bond funds saw more muted growth (Figure 3 and Figure 4). SWFs, despite suffering liquidations in Q1, have benefited from their high exposure to public equities of 60%-70% and as a result they likely saw close to 13% growth (or $1tr) in their AUM this year, bringing their total assets to above $9tr currently. In contrast, hedge funds (a $3.4tr universe currently) and pension funds/insurance companies (a $58tr universe currently) saw more modest low single digit growth this year. In other words, among investor types, retail funds such as Mutual Funds and ETFs appear to have seen the strongest growth this year, thus increasing their share in the total investor universe.

	Fig.3	Fig.4

Now a really interesting part:

Inflows the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust still too big to allow any position unwinding by momentum traders to create sustained negative price dynamics

• We had argued in our F&L publication of Dec 11th that the previous week’s announcement by MassMutual life insurance company that has already invested $100mn in bitcoin for its general investment fund, represented another milestone in bitcoin adoption as it suggests that institutional investors’ adoption of bitcoin is spilling over from family offices/HNWI to more traditional real-money investors such as insurance companies and pension funds.
• That MassMutual announcement was followed this week by a wave of speculative bitcoin buying, likely reflecting a renewed impulse by speculative investors to front run real-money institutional investors.
  Indeed, bitcoin futures, the preferred vehicle of speculative investors, saw new record high volumes on Thursday this week (Figure 5), which combined with a sharp increase in open interest (Figure 6), points to intense buildup of futures positions. In fact Figure 6 shows that the open interest of CME bitcoin futures has increased by an astonishing 45% since last Friday, more than reversing the previous decline of Nov 25th and making a new record high of $1.4bn.
  This is also true with our more carefully calculated bitcoin futures position proxy shown in Figure 7 which experienced a similarly steep ascent this week to unprecedented territory. As a reminder to our readers to infer positioning in bitcoin futures, we use our open interest position proxy methodology that we also apply to other futures contracts, where we look at the cumulative weekly absolute changes in the open interest multiplied by the sign of the futures price change every week. The rationale behind this position proxy is that when there is a price increase, the net long position of spec investors increases also with the magnitude of the increase determined by the absolute change in the open interest. It does not matter whether the open interest rises or falls as the net long position can increase either via fresh longs (increase in open interest) or a reduction of previous shorts (reduction in open interest). And vice versa. When there is a price decrease, the net long position of spec investors decreases also with the magnitude of the decrease determined by the absolute change in the open interest. It does not matter whether the open interest rises or falls as the net long position can decrease either via fresh shorts (increase in open interest) or reduction of previous longs (reduction in open interest). Looking at Figure 6 and Figure 7 it is difficult to not become concerned about a buildup of speculative long futures positions in bitcoin. At the same time, any previous attempts to call for mean
  reversion in these two indicators proved futile.
  

	Fig.5	Fig.6	Fig.7

• What about momentum traders? There is little doubt that momentum traders, such as CTAs and quantitative crypto funds, amplified this week’s surge. How much of vulnerability do these momentum traders pose for bitcoin at the moment?
  We had argued in previous weeks that the near term outlook for bitcoin was skewed to the downside due to a potential decay of its momentum signals into January, unless the bitcoin resumed its uptrend by rising above $20k. Clearly, this week’s surge to above $23k has not only cancelled our previous momentum-signal-decay thesis, but it has reversed it by shifting these momentum signals to even higher territory. This is shown in Figure 8 which depicts our short and long lookback period momentum signals for bitcoin. Figure 8 shows that the short lookback period momentum signal rose this week to 2.0 stdevs and the long lookback period to 1.6 stdevs. Both are above our 1.5stdev threshold typically associated with overbought conditions and a high risk of mean reversion. According to Figure 8 the last time momentum traders were so long bitcoin was in June 2019.
• 
  Taking Figure 6, Figure 7 and Figure 8 together, we find it difficult not to characterize bitcoin as overbought at the moment. At the same time we acknowledge that the inflows into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, at $1bn per month currently (Figure 9), are too big to allow any position unwinding by momentum traders to create sustained negative price dynamics similar to the ones seen before in the second half of 2019. In other words, monitoring on a high frequency basis the flow trajectory for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust remains very important. Any signs of significant slowing in the flow trajectory for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust in Figure 9 would raise the risk of a bitcoin correction similar to the one seen in the second half of 2019.
  
  

	Fig.8	Fig.9

Apart every speculation about Grayscale, I think I have addressed in my thread, I think the interesting part is the proxy positioning based on Open Interest. An Indicator I will try to reproduce in TradingView.

EDIT: Zerohedge referenced to this article, with various comments

Bitcoin At $650,000? One Stunning Chart, And Why JPMorgan Thinks Nothing Can Stop It Now

Omg that too complecated....
Just tell me guys Im getting money or losing?

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Omg that too complecated....
Just tell me guys Im getting money or losing?

OMG Fullbear2222.  Get a grip!!!!!   Who knows what's happening with you, except for you (and maybe you don't even seem to know? since you are quoting posts from 2 years ago, and then not explaining how that 2-year old information relates to today).

Also, you have ONLY been registered on the forum for a couple of months - so it could be possible that your time preference is too high (you are expecting positive returns in too short of a timeframe.. perhaps?), and you may well need to chill the fuck out and figure out a financial management strategy that might include bitcoin accumulation that might work for you for 4-10 years or longer.. depending on your various other financial and mental circumstances.

When you invest into bitcoin, at minimum you should be attempting to consider your cashflow, how much bitcoin you have already accumulated, your other investments, your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and your time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

It can take a long time to figure out each of the subcategories within the above-outlined individual considerations, yet no one has to figure them all out at one time or before getting started investing in bitcoin.. and accordingly any person could start by investing relatively small amounts or investing some amount that they believe to be reasonable and prudent - and continue to study their own circumstances along the way, and perhaps tweak their investing strategy from time to time along the way, as they are learning.

The first considerations on the above list are more basic, and the later considerations on the list are more advanced, so of course, on a personal level, I have frequently striven to get the basics in order before getting into the more advanced strategies and techniques.

So ultimately, if you are reading information that seems too complicated for you, and you are asking for feedback on a forum in respect to your own personal financial and perhaps mental circumstances, then you likely need to start out more slowly.. especially if you are having trouble understanding and appreciating how 2-year old information about bitcoin might relate to your own current personal financial/mental circumstances.

[fillippone]

[edited out]

<random shitpost>

<wall of text>

I applaud you, @JayJuanGee for the effort you put in that answer.
I was so happy someone posted on this thread that apparently is a monologue of mine (not that too much discussion is required here, btw). But when I realised the poor quality of the post I was a little bit discouraged.

Nevertheless, you showed me how to deal with that!

[fillippone]

I resume this thread to post a series of 2024 analysis by various Institutional players.

Messari	Crypto theses 2024
ECT GROUP	ETC Group Crypto Market Outlook 2024
VanEck	VanEck’s 15 Crypto Predictions for 2024
Global X	Crypto & Blockchain Quests
Bitwise	The Year ahead: 10 crypto predictions for 2024
Fidelity	Crypto Outlook 2024
Jp Morgan	https://lnkd.in/e2i-ZCMB
HashDex	2024 Crypto Investment Outlook
Coinbase Institutional	2024 Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto.com	2023 Year Review & 2024 Year Ahead
Pantera	A Year Of Progress
a16z crypto	A few of the things we’re excited about in crypto (2024)

All of these research are public available, some of them just require an email (even a throw away one) to read it. No restricted material has been provided.

[Wind_FURY]

The "Cockroach Theory" by The Economist.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/18/why-bitcoin-is-up-by-almost-150-this-year

The title might confuse many people into believing that the article is merely another negative essay written to misinform and gaslight its readers. It's probably an article written by someone who is, or probably WAS against Bitcoin, BUT also probably has accepted the fact that it is not going away.

[JayJuanGee]

I resume this thread to post a series of 2024 analysis by various Institutional players.

Messari	Crypto theses 2024
ECT GROUP	ETC Group Crypto Market Outlook 2024
VanEck	VanEck’s 15 Crypto Predictions for 2024
Global X	Crypto & Blockchain Quests
Bitwise	The Year ahead: 10 crypto predictions for 2024
Fidelity	Crypto Outlook 2024
Jp Morgan	https://lnkd.in/e2i-ZCMB
HashDex	2024 Crypto Investment Outlook
Coinbase Institutional	2024 Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto.com	2023 Year Review & 2024 Year Ahead
Pantera	A Year Of Progress
a16z crypto	A few of the things we’re excited about in crypto (2024)

All of these research are public available, some of them just require an email (even a throw away one) to read it. No restricted material has been provided.

Wow!

No wonder so many people believe that there is such a thing as "crypto," especially since no one seems inclined to even use the word bitcoin in their title... Might it not be more accurate to entitle something like this.. "Report on bitcoin, and various shitcoins (and affinity scams)"?

The "Cockroach Theory" by The Economist.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/18/why-bitcoin-is-up-by-almost-150-this-year

The title might confuse many people into believing that the article is merely another negative essay written to misinform and gaslight its readers. It's probably an article written by someone who is, or probably WAS against Bitcoin, BUT also probably has accepted the fact that it is not going away.

At least he was not afraid to use the word "Bitcoin" in the main title, but then still devolved into putting that dumb-ass meaningless term into the subtitle.  The title itself must be worth something in terms of showing how scared "they" are.

[Wind_FURY]

The "Cockroach Theory" by The Economist.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/18/why-bitcoin-is-up-by-almost-150-this-year

The title might confuse many people into believing that the article is merely another negative essay written to misinform and gaslight its readers. It's probably an article written by someone who is, or probably WAS against Bitcoin, BUT also probably has accepted the fact that it is not going away.

At least he was not afraid to use the word "Bitcoin" in the main title, but then still devolved into putting that dumb-ass meaningless term into the subtitle.  The title itself must be worth something in terms of showing how scared "they" are.

Pardon those people. Because they are economists and "scholars" of an old system, for them it will probably take 10 more years before they could finally accept Bitcoin in its totality as the next evolutionary step for money. They might also say that it's "our" Tour De Force, and how it was ahead of its time. But was it?

Plebs have already known that it would be so, not because they were HODLing/using the asset, but because the common, Bitcoin pleb today had already a basic, fundamental understanding of the network, of the incentive structure - what makes everything stick together, and of the importance of censorship-resistance - Bitcoin's main value proposition.

[btc78]

The "Cockroach Theory" by The Economist.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/18/why-bitcoin-is-up-by-almost-150-this-year

The title might confuse many people into believing that the article is merely another negative essay written to misinform and gaslight its readers. It's probably an article written by someone who is, or probably WAS against Bitcoin, BUT also probably has accepted the fact that it is not going away.

At least he was not afraid to use the word "Bitcoin" in the main title, but then still devolved into putting that dumb-ass meaningless term into the subtitle.  The title itself must be worth something in terms of showing how scared "they" are.
 

Pardon those people. Because they are economists and "scholars" of an old system, for them it will probably take 10 more years before they could finally accept Bitcoin in its totality as the next evolutionary step for money.

it is not uncommon for the older generation to reject ideas especially new ones because they think that their way is always the better one and probably the best too but economists or scholars as you call them being skeptical about new ways surprises me mainly because economists should know that there is nothing constant with markets and they are always fluctuating which goes the same way for trends and other systematic inventions

maybe in the next few years, even as early as next year, those who are still quite skeptical of bitcoin can finally realize that this is now the future