Bitcoin Forum

Many of you will read this and probably think hell no: We go to $20-$22K. We go down 80% like every time to $14K. There'll be a multi-year bear market. But what if most of you were wrong.

Things repeat when they rhyme. But by enough metrics such as log growth, timing and 6 months apart double top, there is little rhythm compared to previous cycles.

I don't doubt there could be a capitulation wick, as is the tradition, as based on profit/losses we are in the fear stage (https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/) as there is still 16% more unrealised profit than losses in the market. But what if there were more long-term investors in the market than speculators, and a realised price of $24K actually seems reasonable.

I'm not really suggesting the bottom is already in, and do think we can easily go a bit lower, but I doubt it will last very long, similar to in March 2020 when price recovered within 6 weeks. The 1 year+ hodlers reached a new all time high of 65% this week, so this is far from the pre-capiluation levels of sub 1:1 ratio of long-term to short-term hodlers which has been the common cause of previous bear market ending capitulations

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seemed that most people thought $30K would hold (myself included), others believed we'd go to at least $20K. So far the former group have been proven wrong, so it seems likely enough that the latter group can be wrong as well. It reminds me of 2018 when most thought $6K would hold, and a year later at $14K that price would never go back below $4K, before both events occurred.

The one thing that is sure is that there are a lot more on-chain metircs than the bear market of 2018. Specific tools that long-term investors prefer to use to analyse price using more fundamental data, rather than prise-based, bearing in mind there currently are more investors than speculators right now, unlike a year ago. Another factor is that twice can be coincidence, while three times or more is considered a pattern. So with the previous bear markets of 2011, 2013 and 2018, there was a distinct pattern of a recovery.

Call it hopium after breaking a higher low and higher high structure, which for me did confirm the end of the bull market, but I do think this bear market could only last anywhere between 1 - 6 weeks, even if consolidation thereafter takes considerable time. Longer-term holders are still refusing to sell at a loss, with shorter term holders (particularly 6-12 month unsurprisingly) instead taking responsibility for the selling.

I'm still struggling to see how a crypto winter is coming, I already feel like we've been in one for 12 months already. Either that, or price will have to go significantly lower or in order to shake out strong hands.

I have never doubted that before, only what I doubt is for the price to go below last two halving all-time-high price which was in December 2017, which has never happened before, which means it is highly unlikely that bitcoin price will go below $19600

There is nothing coming than bull market, even if the price decreases further, the price will rise again. There is no best time to buy bitcoin recently than now. Bitcoin never gets liquidated but all-time-high is highly likely.

The bear is not surprising and it is expected a longtime but maybe it has taken time to come down this deep. Going to 25k for my view is not to be in doubt because on the long time is still looking bearish and that circle has to complete for the bull correction to begin. It is still showing possible down trend to continue to the end of this month. If it is continue that can break to 25k.

You've been around long enough...  Don't you remember when the crash from $20K to $6K happened and then it bounced back above $10K and everyone said the bear market was behind us?  Then we fell to $3K and sat there for a long time.  While you can see clear signs of capitulation a few days ago, I think that was a clear bottom in the short term.  Longer term, I think we have lower to go.  Scarily, the major support level does seem to be around $10K, so if we're still mirroring the 4-year cycles of past, I would expect a revisit to $10K sometime over the next year.  Not saying it's set in stone as I don't think we've ever seen this market fall below the previous cycle's high.  You can see from the NASDAQ leaders that market leaders have fallen as much as 80% in some situations.  Altcoins are down similarly in that period.  So I understand the argument that we've hit bottom already.  My question to the people who make that argument...  Do you really think it's different this time?

For whatever reason, the market is bearish again. However, I'm not surprised with what happened, and not so surprised that bitcoin falls back to $28k again, it's the lowest I guess. It has slightly recovered back to $30k but it's struggling to stay, so I'll probably just prepare myself for another dump in the coming days.

IIRC, it was not only $6k, but bitcoin dump to $3k after it achieved a $20k ATH.
That happened after over a year from the date bitcoin reach its ATH.

So $20k to $3k, so it's possible to see at $10k price.

^ This is what is also in my mind and I believed it will never go down beyond $20k the BTC price.
The $30k price is the hold point and waits until the ATH will come back. But however, I did not have too much in worries because I am a long-term holder which is I know the BTC price will increase after the correction (the term correction was still what I am thinking during this dip).
So possible, $25k is already at the button and it will never go down beyond that price. I think, avoid thinking this and think that you are holding like a year to bring out your benefits.

Maybe it was or maybe it was not. I think it mostly depends on how the nasdaq performs for the next few weeks. If the nasdaq is going to keep making new lows then mostly likely so will Bitcoin.

If $25K was not the low then most likely something like $22-23K might be. I don’t think we will get to $20K. Way too many people want to buy in that area and most likely will get front run. Also Bitcoin never retests it’s prior cycles ATH. However there is no guarantee that this time it will be the same.

how much would it be? lol 25k seems not to come .

yes it is.

Good points and I believe it is really impossible to say what the bottom was and whether $30k is going to hold (price currently is a little lower) but one thing is certain the cycle as we knew it is broken and all we have been seeing in the past 6 months are brand new. In other words nobody can claim 80% drop because it happened before because nothing of this trend is like before and even if price did drop that low like the $14K you mentioned, it still wouldn't be because "it happened before" but instead it would be because of a million different new reasons.

As to now it is not a clear picture of where price will go because the strong hands seem like pulling out. In 2017 going to 2018 is similar to that happening now. The rush of fear and dump is taking price further down and within two weeks btc has gone down from $39k to $29k and yet no bull sign that it will pick this week because the price selling below the $30,000 area this morning.

We have no idea, in fact bitcoin is not yet on that level because it's currently at $29k and the the support level is around $26k fyi.  And in my views it seems someone trying to push bitcoin upward as there's already some green candles on the daily time frame, so perhaps it will not happen since bitcoin is now starting to make correction because you know usually if there's such results it means there's a chance for reversals.. Just saying.

I really hope that the recent panic on the crypto markets was mostly caused by the Luna/Terra collapse.
After the market bloodbath caused by Luna/Terra,there will be a period of stagnation,followed by a price recovery.
The pessimistic scenario is that the investors are running away from the crypto markets searching for safe heavens like gold and commodities.
In this case,the crypto price recovery won't happen anytime soon and we will have to wait for until 2024.
I don't see any major FUD attack against Bitcoin right now.There's no reason for FUD.The big governments/central banks aren't acting hostile towards BTC,the blockchain is doing just fine.This gives me hope that Bitcoin will rise like a phoenix in the upcoming years.

Yeah, we are just basing on the historical logs, but we are not certain that it might follow that series of events or not. Seems to be around $29k-$30k right now. And so if we maintain $30k, then the next obvious attempt will be $32k and see if it will hold again or not. I don't think that we will have a "terra luna event" in the future. Yes we felt the effect but is not going to last as the price might bounce again to somewhere to $35k at least.

Who do you mean by long-term holders? To people like Saylor, Winklevoss twins and some other billionaires, or ordinary people? The big ones have refused to sell because they are not gambling with the money they need for a living, and most small investors are unfortunately out of the game for fear of losing even more. Now we just need some new people to start believing in Bitcoin to start a new cycle, a sad but unfortunately true sequence of events that are not happening for the first time.


12 months in crypto winter? I don't feel that way, although for some crypto winter started at the very moment when it was evident that the price of the magical $100k would not be realized. Personally, I'm sorry for those for whom it was an exit point, because in the end, for the most part, it all comes down to how many fiats will come to their bank account.

Coins not moved for 1Y+ (currently 65%)
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/

In April 2021, traders were already selling and expect the price to correct and it did at $30K and then goes back up $68K. Now were back at $30K again. The price will likely be at this level for weeks.  Its probably going to be a tiny movements of price again, there might be changes to the cycle if it turns out the bulls suddenly comes to rescue the holders. What traders see these days is that despite the price dipping below $30K, there were lots of traders buying. Just cross your fingers for it will be weeks to months before we find out.

Most probably they know good prices are still coming and for sure, he’s not into this market that much and busy on other things as well. Long term holder can’t stop the market from crashing though and because of this they have no choice but to wait for the market to recover because they don’t want to sell at a loss. $25k might be the bottom, if BTC able to stay above the support level then it could be the bottom price.

If we do compare the current price as of writing (30990) in preev.com which its a 6k difference before hitting that 25k again.Isnt really that far off? No its not thats why i dont really make myself that too much confident

that we wont really be touching those low levels but in overall i did buy into those bottom an sell out recently which i do make out profits in a short time and would repeat on the same decision if ever the price would

go down but we know that this is something that couldnt be known or handle it out and this is where risk management talks or matter.

It is definitely "far off" enough to be not scared of it anymore. However, we have to also realize that we were around 40k just recently, and all these crashes made it down to a bottom, so when you are considering crypto, you are considering something much bigger. This could be the reason why people are looking at this a bit more clearly, its not a guaranteed thing and we could definitely go down even more. This is what we should look at, the possibilities and when we are talking about possibilities that means we could fall down even more, or we could skyrocket to a high price, both of them are equally possible.

Hopefully yes, since the price is already at the level of $31k as of posting and there's a huge volume of buyers which can tell us that they are back and willing to buy BTC again. Well, for me if we are still not able to break the resistance level, then there's still a chance for the price to corrects which can be another opportunity to buy BTC. This is why I'm not panicking, since I have some money to buy at the bottom and I know that bottom won't last a week, whales are also waiting on that level.

The argument that the pattern has been broken works both ways. Because we're in uncharted territory, now many scenarios can not be excluded, even dropping below $20k. Just like a sudden bull market can not be excluded too. But if we look at the 2021 run, it happened during the hype about institutional adoption. Nowadays there's no hype, in fact the world is laughing at cryptobros who lost everything (https://twitter.com/Ryanair/status/1525083159725056002). I don't think it's possible to have a bull market in a severely negative media environment.

65% is alot that is bullish and worth taking note of for long term volume etc., need to save that one.  I dont think this current wave down is especially been challenged just yet, this weekly bar just closed has not been the positive that needs to appear.   The bottom pricing is hard to call, its a process not an event is the phrase one trader I follow uses.  On that basis its still a struggle, I still rate price action negatively and probably sideways is the first thing it has to do before a good possibility of positive thats stays green.

https://i.imgur.com/OXFuYwH.png

This sequence of continual decline is not usual.  I would guess having found 50 week as a top roughly we may need to visit the 200 week also and that would match events such as DXY peaking etc.

Another thing I forgot to mention is the BTCUSDLONGS on Bitfinex. If you put in the ticker in trading view you will see that many bought the dip. Usually when Bitcoin dips they load up and when it rips they off load.

Question is how much are they going to buy exactly? It’s already at ATH. However if Bitcoin dips more to like $20K they can also keep buying, most likely not get liquidated and it’ll be like 100K worth of Bitcoin longs.

A true crypto investor won't abandon his crypto assets just because of this situation because they know that this situation is not new anymore. I thought crypto was called as a safe haven/heaven before? But it looks like they changed their mind and think that gold and commodities are the real safe haven, lol.

There might be no recoveries for a while and there's a chance that the price can only drop further but I don't think it can take up to the year 2024 only to see a good recovery. That's too long. Current situation are prone to fuds. You may not only notice it but it is actually happening now but you are right, there is no real reason to fud or to get affected by the fud's because what we are seeing now aren't going to last forever.

There is a chance to see $25k as the bottom and stay at that level for a while. But as usual, we don't know if that can happen or not while many of us doesn't want to expect to see that price. If the price down to that level, we can't do anything except following and use that moment to buy more bitcoin. We know that the next dip can make people become more panic as they don't expect that thing to happen.

But bitcoin will recover sooner or later and hopefully, the recovery process will come after the middle of this year or next year. The price now is down to $29k and the green candle shows up so we can hope that it will really increases for bitcoin.

This is what I can't expect, but if that happens, whatever the power, we must be prepared for any situation when there is still capital to buy at a price of $25k why not, maybe the lowest price for us to continue to buy as low as possible.
Something must have happened this is still bearish for the crypto market, price stability can't be guessed but what we hope for is a recovery because I bought it at $29k.

As in this video I often experience:  ;D
https://www.facebook.com/Phemex.official/videos/361417722629129

$26k. The lowest I have seen ever since it hit an ATH. I am riding the side of believing it is the bottom. It is cheap. We have seen it go up in manners that is hard to explain so I am guessing there are still investors who are willing to wait and they might be successful just using mere patience.
Even those who sold at $35k will be in good profit now if they will buy back with a good amount of increase in BTC and all they need to do is keep it again.
It's a win-win for the patient investors and for those who got scared.
The big question is, are they already buying back or getting greedy to wait for a lower price? I think they should buy already or they will miss the new train.

     Well, I for one was expecting a reversal half way through this month and for the short term I am extremely bullish. In a couple of days if the momentum goes well then I will get more and more bullish midterm. Although I haven't placed long positions on leverage yet, I am quite satisfied that I was able to buy some altcoins and a little bit of satoshis on spot when bitcoin was at 25k-27k+. I also bought some shitcoins and low cap coins for fun that I wish would surprise me a couple months from now after forgetting about buying them. xD

I think it will happen coming days.Now market condition very hard and very hard to predict bitcoin price. This month bitcoin price staying $28k-30k.For my experienced,Bitcoin price was under $25k but it already touched in $68k+ in 2021 too.But bitcoin price early dropped in 2022 and bitcoin price was around $40k previous 2-3 month.I hope bitcoin price will be more improve this year and bitcoin will be more grow in this year.

Perhaps I am panicking, but it seems to me that this time we are all witnessing something new, perhaps a long-term depression after an unpredictable fall. The whole world is now on the brink of a huge crisis, I don't think it needs to be said. And bitcoin has not yet experienced a global crisis since its launch. So it seems to me that guessing the bottom right now is very difficult.

That is why we must always be ready for whatever will happen in the market so that we can move based on the situation that occurs. We should be able to prepare some money to buy at low prices because it looks like this situation will continue. If you can buy low and sell high and repeat, I think you will get a lot of profit, which means your opportunity to make more money will be there.

You can sell some of the bitcoins you bought at $29k if the price returns to the $30k-$31k level and wait for the price to get another correction. But still, be careful with this situation.

The bitcoin market has plummeted for nearly the past month. Bitcoin has dropped about 20% from its current $40k to $30k price. If the market continues to decline then we will most likely see the price of bitcoin going down to the $25k area probably in the next few weeks. Moreover, so far the market's attitude is still very panicked, it is possible that the downward trend in prices will continue.

with the strong holding of Bitcoin showing at 30k and above now? i believe that what we have couple days ago in which stands as 26k is the bottom and this is the start of the growing market now.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
Maybe there are slight drop that may come soon but at least this will go up this year alone and this is what I am rooting .
Bitcoin price is plummeting since December last year so this is normal , what we are waiting is the Bullying .

To be honest, there is not enough cash inflow in the market and the recent luna disaster wiped out 40B of cash from the entire ecosystem. I am expecting the BTC price to go around 20k or even lower. You will not find any similarities in historical patterns because everyone is analyzing them in different time frames. But one pattern is looking similar and that is after a long bull market, the BTC market stays bearish till the next halving.

Its hard to imagine that we will have long bearish moment until the next halving since for sure if we see dump we also see recovery so maybe the best thing what we can call it is pump and dump scenery. Maybe for now many are scared due to luna incident but I'm sure that they can get over with it and stay intact with other good alternative coins as well with BTC.

80% is indeed from from happening now , bitcoin had its strong support even from independent investors things that is not with us from the past increases, I mean not as huge as we have now.
the support is really strong that made Bitcoin price keeps high even in the whole 1st quarter of 2022 things that not happened in the 2018 after bull year.

Thanks for this sights mate and I do believe that Indeed 25k will be the lowest we can ever have again unless there is another somewhat like Covid 19 to come along then things will change .

Yeah, but we've seen it in the past, 2018 and early part of 2020 was extreme bullish as we have seen the price going down to $3,000 because of covid-19 effect.

And now, the Luna pitfall, so we shouldn't discount the fact that we hasn't seen the bottom price yet for this bearish trend.

I think, it will be difficult for bitcoin price to drop down more than $25,000 before it will increase higher to a level where investors will start rejoicing for the massive income they have been waiting for in the community. Since the price of bitcoin has dropped down to $27,000 in this month of May, showed that investors will soon experience positive change in the market price before the end of this month because bitcoin teams are seriously working to make it happen soon for every investors to smile again in the community.

You are looking at the drop, but not the increase and that is the problem with the market right now, and all those who didn't made any profit. Sure it went from 40k to 30k if you look at it that way, but along the way it reached 26k and bounce backed to 31k as well. Why not look at it that way?

Why not check out the situation as a good thing and how we failed to go down even further. Not like there was anything that keeps us from going that that much further, we could have gone down that much, but we failed to do that which means that we already found our bottom and things are looking good for us. So instead of looking at how much we dropped, look at how much we moved up.

that scenario had been in the market for long , that After halving and before halving scenario , though we can see that semi strong holding from bitcoin this years compared to the recent 2018 when the price literally fell hard after 2017 bull.
and yes that LUNA issue makes the volatility of the whole market move again and this affect a large volume of trading for days now.

It doesn't really matter to me now because I am rooting for even lower price to buy more and forget to sell for now.
there is a huge dump happens couple of days ago and now we are seeing the effect.
so either 25k or down below 20k? that cares me nothing anymore .

We saw strong holding sentiment from the BTC investors, but we need to find out how long they could keep that sentiment. We know how whales manipulate the market, and most of those whales have been buying BTC for a long time, and most of those whale addresses didn't sell any BTC in the last bull run either. I think they will try to push the market further down to break the holder's sentiment.

We need to give salutes to the holders by seeing how strongly they act after the luna disaster. If this happens in 2018 then I can this the whole market could collapse from here. The market looks mature and strong.

If we look at the trend that has occurred some time ago the price of Bitcoin had reached the lowest position in the range of $ 25k, of course many investors panic because they thought that prices would continue to fall, but the market rose again and could be in the $ 30k range again, and now is a challenge Next whether Bitcoin can rise again to $ 30K because the current price is around $ 28K.

Same feeling, lol. After the huge dump from $40,000 up to below $30,000. I already started to look to buy the dip again. But for me, if ever it will drop $20,000, I'm going all-in for sure. But I am not expecting it to go below $20,000 this time.

If ever we will close the monthly candle above $30,00 this end of May, I am positive that the $25,000 is already the bottom.

I wouldn't go crazy just to expect $20K to come true for last year's $69K post-ATH bitcoin lows. Maybe only numbers can be achieved or maybe not during this year or next year. I wouldn't say no to $20K or lower, but it might be an unexpected period if 2018's history is the benchmark. Anything is possible, the unexpected and it is very possible in the crypto world, but we probably won't hit another $20K for bitcoin lows during this correction. Just my opinion.

It's possible, but let's see what will happen at the end of May.

I am glad you are riding the dips and making good decisions. The market is very unpredictable and we are doing our best to make our portfolio more safe. I'm pretty sure everyone else is the same, too. It doesn't matter where Bitcoin goes, as long as you invest with a proper risk/reward ratio.

Right now, I'm sitting on a nice cash pile to take advantage of a market correction. Your move, Mr. Bitcoin.

There are people who will be able to hold it as long as possible and that will be their thing forever. I mean for me personally, unless I am forced to then I will not be selling my coins at any point, doesn't matter if it is 100 dollars or 100k dollars and we will be just holding as much as possible.

I understand that there is a situation where it's not going to be that easy, and there will be some people who will leave, but that's not going to be something that we could end up with something that gets some of the holders who will leave, whereas some of the holders will not end up leaving at all. This could be the situation for the next few days.

Just remember though that if we even close the monthly candle at $30k, it doesn't mean that we have reach the bottom already.

We still have the next 6 months and there are a lot of things that can happen along the way that can put more pressures on the price to a downward spiral. So I'm still not feeling confident, I'm still seeing that the price could still go down below $25k and this could be the worst case scenario.

Who knows, we can't confirm that $25K is the lowest price for bitcoin during bear season. We don't have a specific consensus here for sure that it won't drop lower than $25K, but maybe yes it will be the support that will hold the panicked traders in check for a while.

If there are a lot of people willing to hold and sell nothing during a price correction, then it is very likely that $25K will hold and become a strong support. But otherwise, if traders and some big investors want to go out and secure profits then $25K probably won't last much longer. The main problem is that we cannot predict the future, so we just need to minimize the risk.

That is what we must have looking for , taking advantage of the situation instead of looking for going out , there had been many years that Bitcoin proven its capacity to increase so why not trust this more again?

Buy now as the price is dropping , and sell in the coming days when it recovers/

let us not go with others that has weak hands in which small movement like this makes them panicking already .

True Bitcoin investors knew about it and doesn't give a da*n about the correction the deeper in gets the more fractions will be added to the portfolio.
IMO, this could be a good entry point for those people who have lost a lot because of Terra Luna's downfall.
As early as today, these people should secure their bags with more BTC rather than looking for another project that doesn't really guarantee a chance for a return as much Bitcoin.

The market has been red for more than 6 months, although a few days ago it was able to go up but in the last 3 days there was another correction so the price was below $30k again, I'm waiting if the price can get below $25k will buy more, many analysts believe that correction happens only temporarily and the market will rise again soon.

Good for you but for us that are now rooting for an increase, it is going to be painful for us seeing the price drop like that. How many times we are going to go down? but I will ask you, haven't you bought anything last time? Sometimes waiting for a very low price is not good anymore because what if it wasn't guarantee?

I bet you will regret that you didn't buy something even in a not so low price. You can still earn decent anyway if ever the price continues to skyrocket. I am not sure if 25k is the bottom but if we observed the price lately, the price has stabilized again at 29k. I am thinking that maybe this is was the new low that we can get?

What happened to LUNA can teach us that the risk is very high if we invest in altcoins. Whereas LUNA was previously in the top 10, then surprisingly
the price continued to fall in a fast time until the price was below $1. Moreover, if we decide to invest in altcoins outside the top 10, the risk is
even greater. Whereas investing in Bitcoin is a different matter, Bitcoin is unlikely to experience what happened to LUNA, because after all
Bitcoin fundamentals are very strong. So the decline that occurs in Bitcoin according to my prediction will not be as deep as LUNA, and I believe
the price of $25k is the lowest price of Bitcoin. Moreover, quite a lot of institutions buy Bitcoin in large quantities when the Bitcoin price is above $25k,
then I believe Bitcoin won't drop below $25k this year. So it's a very good decision if we decide to start collecting Bitcoin from now on.

More of like 7 straight weeks of red candle. So I will say that the price will go on sideways now, and we may stuck in this price range for at least a week again or at least at the end of the month. But from my analysis, maybe in the next 4-5 days, we might see another minor drop. I say minor, just maybe in the range of $27k-$28k. So it means that this is going to be very hard next quarter.

I hope that $25k is the lowest price, if the bitcoin price is below $25k then the opportunity to go up will be difficult and will probably repeat the bad times every 4 years i.e. drop more than 50%, but if you look at price developments in the market we deserve to be wary if the price has already touched $25k.

No one knows if $25k is the lowest bitcoin price later but hopefully the bitcoin price won't reach that price because it will surely panic more people.
Those who are new to bitcoin, especially if they joined at a time when the bitcoin price hit $50k-$69k, will be very sad that it hit $25k.
For now, many of them suffered quite a large loss because they never expected the price to drop so deep.
But if the price has to drop to $25k, we can't do anything and just prepare our money to buy at that price.
Maybe we can place some purchase orders at that price.

Hopefully it will not reach the price of $ 25 thousand because until now I see the bitcoin market price is still around $ 29 thousand.
But according to the market chart that we see, it's likely that the price of bitcoin will drop below $27 thousand, that's for sure and just prepare our money to accommodate bitcoin at the lowest price.

Late to the party of reply, but I hope you're right dragonvslinux!

I'm one of those consistently and stubbornly stuck at the 80% fall from ATH -- like you said, like every time. It's why in 2018-19 when people were getting hopes up, I just insisted to be pessimist. Turns out I was right only months later in 2020. Being right didn't make me feel better, obviously, my heart sank like a rock on that day in March, and if I was smiling later on, as we climbed back to ATH and make new ATHs, it wasn't because of the "I told you so" vibe but the "thank god that was it" relief.

Only problem is, and I wish I could pull out from memory or data, I too, believed I could be wrong because of fundamentals, which, always grow stronger year after year. A lot of these metrics had never been higher in 2018, or 2019, or 2020, and yet couldn't prevent market slips.

Have those metrics finally reached a stage where they can and will this time?

Strange phenomenon happened lately, with supply xxx could turn into yyyy it's a fact, is it possible, has happened.

Confusion continues to haunt Bitcoin users to this day, thinking 1000x, the Luna case is the worst trough effect ever felt by crypto users, some users realized that once in 4 years a halving occurs, the total supply of 21 million can become 18 million, is that something impossible, it has happened.

I have a hunch that Bitcoin is currently dropping to the level of $29,300, from $60k a few months ago, it has happened, believe it or not Bitcoin will have a further decline going forward, consider for yourself, no $20k, $15k par for me, for sure something can happen.

I don't expect bitcoin to go down to $20k even though now the market price keeps dropping. The decline from $40k to $28k was a very painful price for investors and made new investors panic and fear of losing assets later. but I'd rather see bitcoin get high support than many people hope bitcoin can go down again, because it makes other altcoins will be destroyed too.

You have to understand that there is no drop without a bounce. So there may well be a point where bitcoin will bounce back from the bottom as the price has been falling for a long time. But that does not mean that there will not be a new bottom in the future. I think this bearish phase has just begun, as it did in 2018, when bitcoin traded at 6k for a long time and then fell to 3k. Perhaps this scenario will happen again soon, only in a different price range.

I am not sure, I mean it looks like there is a good case to be made about the current situation not be that great and we have been in red candle for a long time but doesn't that mean that we could get a lot better in the long run as well? I do not know of course, I am just making an assumption.

I do believe that we should be being happy about the current situation and be happy about the current recovery so it could actually go up a lot more. I get that it is not going to be recovering right away, but it would actually end up recovering a good level soon enough I believe that. So, it will take a while before it recovers but not too long and even though it doesn't look like recovering, it doesn't look like going down neither.

actually many say the market fall was as deep as the market in 2018 and what might be difficult is to look for opportunities from this decline, a few months ago, many on forums and media groups said bitcoin down go  to 28k-30k but we hesitate to believe it and now maybe will fall more than that given the current market fears, as lucky holders will hold on until the bounce comes

No would be my answer for now on two points, we havent put in enough volume and also the whole price action is quiet reluctant in both directions.   25k was a proper level to hit on the downside but we didnt do so with excessive fear, news event or large volume.   The 2020 march was for example in the middle of big news, not expected and unparalleled.
   Right now is a slow grind downwards, its too stable in that respect.  BTC can grind upwards slowly also but I would expect multiple tests of the low not just one.  Its unconvincing basically, still on the positive side I would say buying at half the price it was December is positively smart as its not changed since then besides price really however I think buying more then once is best when we dont know future prices.

Bitcoin's current decline is painful for investors, as the decline in Bitcoin's price has had a major impact on altcoins as well. So quite a lot of investors
have suffered losses in situations like this, but as long as we can be patient in dealing with the current situation. I don't think we need to worry
too much, because market crashes like this have happened several times before. And every time the Bitcoin price falls, it will always recover and
the next one will rise to a higher price.

Therefore, for the decline that is happening now, what we need to do can be patient holding Bitcoin until the price recovers, or we can use it to
accumulate Bitcoins that we have. So when the price is pumped, we can generate much bigger profits. Even though it's been a few weeks now Bitcoin
still hasn't shown any signs of recovering, I believe Bitcoin will not drop below $25k. It's even possible that Bitcoin will remain sideaway for the time being,
and hopefully after that Bitcoin can surprise us by pumping up the price of $ 30k. So my advice is that we must continue to believe in the future of Bitcoin,
because only people who are patient and believe in the future of Bitcoin can profit from Bitcoin.

When eth goes pos in August 2022? maybe the shit shall hit the fan.

To difficult to think on how we will end up the same as year 2018 since if we try to look at the history it show that the price reached at the dump is so deep as well we are in pure bubble at that year, But this year is truly different since we see already to much adoption happened and many Big whales are now into crypto so I guess we cannot see the same deep again. Although there's fear occurring but still this is normal because not everyone can take hard when the market is falling badly.

Just realize that we already dropped as much as we could, and it is recovering and not like we didn't try to go down more, we tried it but it didn't work out at all. So, we should be working towards learning what we could be doing for the upwards movement and how we could get there.

I know that it is not something that would be easy, but the 26k bottom was seen and we are doing fine, there is nothing we need to worry about anymore. I believe that we should be focusing on getting better and just focusing on making a lot more money by going up which needs a new hype and we need to find reasons to get hyped about and share that everywhere.

No , for me we are not doing fine yet.

At least not until the bullish formed above 32k range , we are struggling now to get through 30k and many attempt has been approached , yet we get back to below 30k now for multiple attempts.
We could still go down as low as 20k or worse , brace yourself.

As said there is nothing big in the price movement. The fluctuation is happening within specific limits. From different views it is true that the price will fall low to $25k, and we the users need to be prepared to face it. What's the need for hype, everything is happening on its own in a way better than predicted. However the $25k will be touched prior to the bounce back to the price from which it started to fall.

Definitely possible but depends on the macro environment. Unlike in past bear markets, in which Bitcoin/crypto had a huge blow-off top that led to a big bear market, it is mostly the external factors driving Bitcoin down now. Granted there was the China selling at the end of the year and a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy where people thought a bear market would ensue after 2021 so short termers sold which led to the price going down. But for the most part, and certainly the past few months (other than the LUNA/UST destruction), it is just the global macro environment dragging Bitcoin down.

The only reason Bitcoin got dragged from mid-$30ks to $25k was the LUNA/UST crash. Since then Bitcoin is consolidating at $28k-$30k. It could certainly go down more, but only if the global investment/economic environment continues to look bad.

The LUNA/UST crash took a lot of people out of the bitcoin market, making it more heavily hodlers. And as we know (if you've been paying any attention to this sort of thing) holders have been accumlating almost nonstop since July. A supply shock is constantly building, so there is definitely strength in the Bitcoin market, which is very different than past bear markets, but for speculators/short-termers/traders/Tradefi investors they are still going to buy or sell based on wider economic conditions which means right now they are not buying and those that are left are selling.

Overall Bitcoin looks very strong compared to past bear markets because this market is currently driven by external economic factors instead of Bitcoin-market factors. This and Bitcoin's low price makes Bitcoin a lot stronger than say stocks, which are still very high despite having dropped some. Bitcoin likely won't go down a terrible lot more outside of some huge global economic crisis which I think is very unlikely. But stocks could certainly continue to drop for some months which would mean Tradfi investors/speculators are staying out of Bitcoin or shorting or selling which will likely keep Bitcoin in the $25k-$30k range or so until the macro environment improves.

So I'd say $25k was very possible the bottom, we might see a little bit lower if negative global investment environment persists for another quarter or two, but the trend is that Bitcoin is strengthening as holders continue to accumulate, building a bottom for Bitcoin and allowing Bitcoin to be very prepared for strong surges once the macro environment improves. I wouldn't be surprised if it does drop to like $22k or so if stocks start majorly crashing, but otherwise if stocks just sort of grind down a bit $25k could certainly hold, and if things actually kinda level out then we should see Bitcoin rise back up in the $30k's. Really just depends on the larger non-crypto economic and investment picture in the coming months. Outside of that Bitcoin is looking very strong compared to past bear markets which is a great sign. Gone are the days when people forget about Bitcoin for 2+ years after a bull run, now Bitcoin just continues to get stronger and keeps growing even a bear market even as they are so many more things than normal trying to drag it down.

Yet not falling to that level till now, the lowest is below 26k but automatically recovered and now kicking at 29-30 with strong support .

I may not expect too much increase but I am confident that 25k wont be the lowest this year , instead we already reached the lowest and now waiting for the start of increasing.

It’s really sad that you are worried about the altcoin market.
I am worrying about the traders who are panicking and selling the Bitcoins.
As they are selling the Bitcoins so this is the main reason for such a downfall and bullish trend of Bitcoins.
Bitcoins won’t fall below 28k$, so how far OP has seen 25k$ as the lowest?
This trend has been following from the last one week, and it will take another one week to do the same.
Once all the buyers starts buying the coin, soon the price will rise and again many will show back interest in the coin.

Today, Bitcoin's price fell below $29000 once again. The price might not rise very much in the foreseeable future. Cryptocurrencies follow the stock market at the moment. Short-term, this could be bullish. The DCA method has worked well for some, but many more have probably performed worse than simply waiting to see what happens. Nobody can guarantee that we will win in the short term, so no one can guarantee that we will win!

for how many times nowadays that price of bitcoin drops down to 29k? actually even lower couple of times now and yet returning to 30k and above but that is the highest price we reached .
Hate to hear this but that is the sad reality and what we need to be taken now.
since the 2nd quarter is mostly the lowest prices we ever experience , hoping to see the 3rd quarter will be our bread and butter.

Discussions on group telegrams such as Top Exchanges are sure that the price of Bitcoin can drop below $ 25k, maybe this is FUDS to make us panic and sell Bitcoin, but if that happens then the best thing is to buy because I'm sure Bitcoin has power to rise Again and be a good opportunity to get big profits.

I think as long as we always see the market stay in bearish, then there's always high chances for more dumps along the way. It has happened already before, and that history plays a big role because sometimes history repeats itself. Well, it would be another buying opportunity once it happens. For now, let's always think for more possibilities that this is not yet the lowest price, we should at least prepare more funds so we can maximize our purchase when bitcoin is already very cheap and affordable.

Mate Asu, I think it is not FUDs, BTC price is very possible to drop below $25k. The lowest price of BTC this year was around $26,9k (May 12), it is not really far from $25k. If the scheme is the same as the previous bearish, this bearish will lasts until 2024. With 2 years of bearish, the price of BTC is likely to drop more. I even think the price of BTC may drop below $20k. But yes, it must rise again in the next bullrun season.

Many people believe that $ 25k is not the bottom price this year, some even predicted to drop below $ 20k, but whatever happens I am optimistic that Bitcoin has the potential to skyrocket again, it has been proven that Bitcoin can skyrocket when there is a difficult situation in the year 2014 and 2018.

are we still waiting for 25k down trend? because it seems that the price is staying above that level though the price drops to 26k weeks ago but not happened to go ate 25,000.

many believe but still not coming to that value so maybe we are on the waiting time now if this will increase or decrease .

Predictions can be done by every crypto user, there are various predictions that I read outside this forum on Bitcoin, for now I prefer to trade in Bitcoin, rather than having to wait as you say, fate will decide if it happens otherwise, I believe Bitcoin is a 20k low.

it is not because the price dropped at 26k meaning we are still waiting for 25k , remember that the value of bitcoin already recovered and staying strong at above 28k so lets not look at this negative approach instead lets look at positive side.
lol , 2024?  how come that you are looking at this position ? now you are showing FUD and we are not intended to let people understand this lol.

I believe that unless something major happens, we are not going to be under 30k too many times neither, or maybe like 29k+ dips and going back up again. Of course this is crypto world and something crazy could always happen and I believe that we could be actually having some trouble with that.

Nobody knew that Luna would be going down like it did neither but it did and that impacted the whole crypto world, that means that something similar "may" happen but how frequently does it really happen? This is why my guess is that during this summer we could peak over 40k again, summers are usually not that well, but it could happen if we are lucky, if not then we will wait for Q4.

I'm not sure bitcoin will drop to these values. It can't go down without stopping for two months in a row. If the price goes down to 25k, it probably won't be for long. A bounce should happen in the near future. The number of long positions on bitfinex is constantly increasing. I think this is just for a reason. Many people are afraid to buy now and are waiting for bitcoin to get cheaper. But usually the market moves against the expectations of most.

There is always the potential for the price of bitcoin to drop lower than $25K, but a reversal also seems more likely and the price never drops lower again. Prices cannot be predicted with certainty because sometimes the opposite happens because market demand and supply are very uncertain. We have a history of bad price declines in the past where bitcoin prices fell by more than 85% from ATH. But obviously that's not a bad sign to judge bitcoin's future due to the fact bitcoin price has managed to score another ATH in 2021.

While it makes sense that people are worried about the potential bitcoin still has to keep going down, at the same time we need to see this not as some sort of crisis but as an opportunity, it is very unlikely that once the next halving comes and we see yet another bull run that we are going to see a price as low as the one we are seeing right now, so if possible we need to take advantage of the low price so we can reduce the average price we paid for our bitcoin while at the same time we increase our holdings as much as possible.

The next bitcoin halving will be the catalyst, no question about that. Well, yeah it make sense for people to worried this early because of the bear market, but it is what it is. We all know that this is going to happen so we should prepare ourselves at least in the beginning of 2022. And then once you prepared yourself, you will have to think of a strategy, and that is continue to buy at every dip even if it is not the floor price. Because the potential for profits will almost be there, no matter what price you buy during a bear market.

why need to wait for that low when we are ready to Keep Holding for long term right? though it is more lower than what is the price now but what if the price did not fell down that low? and suddenly climbed high tomorrow? so you will regret that decision because you need to buy at much higher than what this prediction brings?
There is prize for the believers but there are a taking from those greed and irresponsible investors.

I agree that there have been worse falls in history, but right now I think a good indicator is that almost everyone is talking about bitcoin going even lower. Many people want to buy it cheaper than they are currently being offered to do so. Usually at times like this the price starts to go up and they have to buy at the market price. Then the dump happens again.

Now is the right time to buy, not when people are in FOMO because that would not usually lead to profit, especially if the market is no anymore bullish. Let's face the reality, we are in a bear market now, and just like in the past, some people will panic and sell their holdings, but how many times do we make mistakes, instead of panicking, why not buy cheap and close our eyes.

For now it can be said that $ 25k is the lowest price since ATH 6 months ago, as an investor who wants to get a big profit, the low price is the time to buy, do not panic by selling all the bitcoin we have and will make us regret because the market is immediately Rising Again, it's better to continue to buy and sell because profit and not loss or panic.

Why not? If you learn 4 years cycle of Bitcoin price, we are still at the beginning of bearish. The next halving will be in 2024 and the bullrun probably takes place in 2025. There are about 2 years to go to the next halving and about 3 years to have the next bullrun (bullish season). With several years remaining, it is very possible that the price of Bitcoin to drop below $25k, even to drop below $20k. We are talking about the possibility, and it is not impossible since BTC price is purely unpredictable.

It makes sense if people are afraid to buy now because they know the 4 years cycle of BTC price. Sometimes the trend is against the expectation, but we already have similar schemes in the previous 4 years cycles. So, how can we don't believe it? Although the price history may not always repeat, we have a strong reason for that fact.

I agree that testing $20-22K is more than possible, now that $30K has been broken, even brief capitulation to $14K if there is a covid-like crash. I wouldn't rule any of this out.

However if price is still within a 4 year cycle, then the low would ironically be around $25K by the end of the year. This is where the 200 Week MA will be in November/December and what many have overlooked, based on the cycle theory that the low will arrive 12 months after the top. This is also why I'm very un-surprised that price already bounced from this level, if it is indeed the lowest price we'll see for the cycle. Given that it gives speculators a good opportunity to trade a dead cat bounce to $40K, $50K, even $60K, before potentially returning to $25-30K. As well as obviously hodlers looking for long-term discounts.

Quite clearly at the moment price is also oversold, or at least in Bitcoin terms oversold (in-between the December 2018 and March 2020 oversold levels). So realistically price can soon reach $20-22K and get to the December 2018 equivalent oversold levels to find a bottom, or simply bounce from here from the March 2020 oversold levels, without ruling out a re-test of $25K by the end of the year either.

The idea of a multi-year bear market also doesn't mean price needs to go any lower, something else many people seem to have ignored. Price could reach $50K in the next few months, even $60K, then re-test $25K at the 200 Week MA by the end of the year. If this happened then it would confirm a lower high from ATH, and clearly another 50% drop would be considered bear market activity, or a dead cat bounce at least.

A multi-year bear market simply means price won't make a new ATH, not that it will make a new ATL. Kind of like the 2019 run up from $3.2K to $14K back down to $3.8K. It was part of the 2-year bear market, but otherwise price failed to make a new ATL, given the second year was a dead cat bounce / consolidation year effectively. If the most recent cycle history is anything to go by that is.

No doubt about it, whether bitcoin drops to $25k or even $ 9k, it will rise again and hit new ATH. A bear market is not good for my portfolio but I don't feel too nervous because this is normal and it won't last forever.

Many people predict bitcoin will go back to $ 20k but the market will usually not follow the trend of the crowd. At times like this, I think the market will go against everyone's prediction maybe the price will go up instead of down but it is not a sign of a bull market, but a price trap.

obviously ? the investors aren't holding strong these days , because if they did then we should have holding at least 40k level right?

but no matter what still it is our part that will bring strong to the prices if we will keep holding a little amount.

and also they have no option right?

what they can do now is to keep holding or be Lose forever if they will sell the coins in this dip.
Lol Bitcoin price did not ffall that low mate, it is 26k is the lowest that we  encountered now .

Yes, that seems to be the case... for now. But remember we are still in the middle of the year and so the next 6 months might surprised us for the worst or better.

So we just need to be attentive of the price actions. If you have plans to buy, then wait for the actual dip and then purchase and hold. If it bottom at $25k and then you bought some then good. But there's always a lot of opportunity in this crypto sphere.

That's good! Indeed there's nothing to worry about because Bitcoin has been and always been the top cryptocurrency for a reason and that's because it is already proven that it will survive through time no matter how red the market is and it will still survive even if the market will experience huge dips in the future.

Long term hodler is not seeing this prices as a danger zone to them and withdraw their assets because they know the reality and they have chosen this specific currency because this is the most trusted.

Worrying is a natural attitude for those who don't have much experience with crypto investing. They believe in the great potential of bitcoin but they may find it difficult to accept the reality if their investment is not profitable. Usually this concern will lessen as they become more educated about bitcoin investing. They just need to believe that volatility is normal and in the long term this investment will make them good profits.

The problem is that not all of these investors think the same, and they also have different investment strategies. Some of them will probably take a profit of 10% or 20%, but some of them will probably aim for something bigger. It all depends on them and their strategy.

It is normal that people get worried about the negative movements in the price of bitcoin, however what it is not acceptable is that people panic since it is not as if we have never seen bitcoin moving like that, we can clearly see even more adverse movements in the past so people should have prepared themselves for this, however if we can think for the long term we can also see that bitcoin will move up once we get closer to the next halving, which means that the price that we are seeing is the perfect opportunity to get some bitcoin for a cheap price and then get great benefits a few years in the future.

I do always have in mind on that common line "Be greedy when others are on fearful" which do mostly works most of the time thats why i do prepare up some funds whenever these kind of market conditions do happen. It might not be always ending up on positive results but at least you are aware on when to get in.Its hard since no one can point out on what would be the possible bottom would be
but once you do have that proper experience and awareness on how this market behaves then you do always have the idea on what are the next steps that you would probably make.

Those who didn't sell BTC at 60k won't sell 40k either. This is people's sentiment, but these people will sell their BTC below 20k if it reaches there. Whales will always win because they have the power to break investors' morals to stay strong in this type of situation. Whales will buy most of the BTC from retail investors because those coins need to stay out of circulation before the next bull run. That's how whales manipulate the markets by breaking people's hope.

This might be correct 'we aint done yet' but before we go lower I'd guess higher first, that attempt failing would aid the ultimate downside.   Thats usually how it works because its not until the buyers give up or sell some even that we have a one sided market that allows for new lows to be discovered relative to this timeline anyhow.
  Many people only especially respect a sell off or low that occurs with great turmoil or volume occurring.   A slight gradient suggests too much calm that it would not be trusted by all,  I'd say both are possible bottom prices but the flat bottom means we stay here for possibly this whole year roughly.

Yeah the dumping is starting again now mate as we can see? the price of Bitcoin one more time fell down below 30k and here it is now

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Maybe this time the price will fall down below 25k in which expected to happen last month.

Possibly after the market signaled a low of $25k then the prediction of the future correction fell to the same low, now that we have seen the market has moved to crash without recovery for 30k. Maybe in June there is no indication of the movement of the market increase.

If you think globally, the 29k we see now is 2.5 times less than it was at the top, which means bitcoin has already fallen quite a lot. It is probably consolidating now, as it did in May-July 2021, and I am sure it will not continue to do so until the end of the year. When everyone is depressed in the market, it means a reversal is near.

I think it will be hard to guess what's coming next without seeing how Bitcoin will react in a recession.  It seems like we're going to find that out in the next 18 months.  A lot of people are expecting Bitcoin to buck the curve and separate itself from traditional investments by going to the moon while everything else craters.  I personally don't think this will be the case, but we'll see.  There's a lot of leveraged bullishness in the market right now.  I think that will need to be cleared before an upward move can be sustained, so I'm keeping my eyes open for one more big drop and a long accumulation period.  I don't think it'll be something you'll miss in a matter of hours.  When the bear market is in, you'll likely have several months or possibly years before consolidation leads to increases in price.

For me it doesn't matter if we are in a recession or not, I look at it were we are right now. So currently we are in a bear market, so obviously we will go down with or without recession. And it just so happen that we have war going on, that really magnifies what is our position. Covid-19 really hits hard, every countries economy is down, and yet crypto market made a run 2020-2021 because that's what the cycle is that time, bull run. So now that we are bearish, no one can stop It from happening but there could be factors that will have a domino effect on the market.

This is the problem if you have no funds ready for this situation , but I am not mate. as I have been saving in dupport funds and if this situation comes? then surely i will have enough funds to purchase more .
lucky for me lol.

we are still in the second quarter of the year , meaning June is just part of it so you know what is better to do now?

"Buy And Buy More Bitcoin " as the price is continuously giving us Discount , let us not fall to the belief that this year is a total dump Because we are already having so much support from Institutional investors so any moment can be consider as Bull running once the price starts to spikes up.

I guess that 25k wouldn't be the bottom. You should consider that bottom would be between 20 and 23k dollars. Situation at the moment is not really so good, market is falling and you can't expect any rise from bitcoin.

Maybe we'll talk about it in the next year but for now I don't think that price of bitcoin will start to rise at its previous value. It is too early.

Actually, I agree with your point that we should attempt to be our best prepared for down and even down that goes a bit beyond our expectations, Chato1977. 

So, our preparation does not merely need to be financial, but also psychological.

At the same time, hopefully you are also both financially and psychologically prepared for UP, too.. because if you end up putting too much preparations in various down scenarios that do not even close to happening, then "lucky for you" will end up contributing to your having had counted your chickens before their hatched.

Surely, each of us has to find a balance that is comfortable for our own situation, and view about which way the BTC price is going to go remains ONLY one aspect of the attempts to individually tailor our preparations to a wide array of scenarios and hopefully apportioning our level of preparations to our view and not betting too much in any given direction that might end up devolving into gambling rather than trying to be realistic in terms of how much we are able to put in one way of practicing our BTC investment portfolio versus another.

Of course, any of us who have already accumulated a decent amount of BTC should be prepared for UP - even accounting for some of us might be recalculating and considering if we are sufficiently prepared for down.. hahahahaha

It seems to me that on a broader spectrum, we have way more folks who are not sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP.. which surely takes a long time for the population to come around to BTC, and even if someone might be new into BTC, there likely would be a decently long period of time to just get to a point of having a sufficient and adequately sized BTC portfolio, and I suppose that part of my point is that buying on dips is ONLY one component of any BTC accumulation strategy.. so even if many of us might want to prepare to buy on dips, to the extent that we might NOT have accumulated many BTC, we also should be considering ongoingly buying as well in a kind of DCA way... so one part of "lucky me" is to consider a balancing of buying regular and trying to be prepared to buy on dips too (even though we are already in a 65%-ish price dip arena).. 

So surely we should be able to ask ourselves about how much dip do we expect?  Is that realistic?  Do we have a decent stash of BTC already?

maybe YES, because according to technical analysis is a strong support at $ 25000,
but we have to remember that this is a cryptocurrency, where the risk and very high volatility makes a wick possible below $ 25000,
make sure we have a good strategy to face it.

I doubt that recession would hit big nations all that hard, it looks like we have enough money printed anyway to make it go "nasy" lol, and yes fed may have increased the rates, but when people realize that they need those money, then they will withdraw it and the market will be flooded with them again, because remember people didn't burned that money, it is still there and they could liquidate it anytime they want to.

It will be terrible for smaller nations, any nation that had 20%+ inflation for example, would have a bad recession again as well, economy will go smaller, and everyone will try to balance things out, but places like Switzerland for example which stood great, would probably go on being great.

The economy slowly started to progress after the pandemic. The economic decline is felt all around, but certain corporate pharmaceutical networks made big number of billions during the same time period. Now the recession has happened out of war, that caused the increase in oil price. Further causing the rise of basic needs. During the lockdown people were into work from home, and that made people not to spend much. Slowly when the shift towards office has begun the expenses were high compared to the days before covid-19. Slowly people have begun to experience the difficulty. For now every form of investment will have a slow growth. It is good till there is no big crash.

Until now the price is still holding above $30k, I think this is a sign that bitcoin has a chance to skyrocket soon, for those who buy when the price is $25k of course get a big profit if you sell now, but I recommend holding on because of the potential to return to $40k very big, maybe it could happen on this moon.

Not trying to burst the bubble for you, but if we have a chance, then this is not a bear market. But it seems that is not the scenario, as explained we are already down by huge numbers already -65% and then counting.

And what makes you think that it can return to $40k this year?

The bottom is not yet reached, I'm still expecting the price to go down in the next six months. So it's either we take that and fill our bags or are afraid to reinvest.

The price of bitcoin is within $28000 and $29000, which means its support at $30000 can be said to be strong but also decreasing below that. It is possible that bitcoin price will fall below $30000 and also means that bitcoin price may increase above $30000. In this, if I should have sentiment, this seasons favors bears, I expect the price of bitcoin to fall further below $30000, then a strong support will be created by bulls around $20000 to $25000

the current price is at $24K+, this drop below $30K occurred in July last year, after that it was able to continue to last until the end of the year above $30K.
The current decline is clearly beyond the analysis of some observers who say that it will only go down to $25K and will soon move up, and even then is expected to happen by the end of the year. it turns out that this has happened and is clearly beyond prediction, will this continue to fall to $15K? it might happen and it looks like bitcoin is undergoing a deep correction at the moment. so to be able to immediately increase it will probably be difficult to happen these few months.