Bitcoin Forum

Keeping in mind and resuming for my thread here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5043315.msg46478559#msg46478559) , I feel that we no longer need to wait up to 4 years to get ATH on bitcoin price as well as next crypto price

this is just my speculation as we saw a few years earlier where bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies didn't have many investors, rich people or big companies put their money into bitcoin

Look at bitcoin today, you know that at this time there are quite a lot of big companies and investors even rich people have invested putting their money into bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies, several heads of state and even famous artists in my country also invest a lot maybe in your country too , so maybe we don't have to worry about the recent bearish news

I'm happy to open this thread to be able to share my thoughts as well as speculation and analysis from the forum community on the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

Do you think we will follow the 4 year cycle again or we will go to the next ATH?

Inevitably, we'll have the break the 4 year cycle at some point. I've seen threads on coins doing well while we were still seemingly in a bear market (such as aave and axs) - not that I consider us to be in a bear year yet - and I think we could also see this quite a bit again too.

I think alt coins have had shorter cycles when compared to btc too (like a <1 year cycle litecoin used to have).

From year to year I have noticed a 4 year cycle keeps happening, but my speculation is only on Bitcoin, that doesn't mean other coins don't have an impact, but that only happened 2 or 5 types that had an impact, a big difference compared to the cycle that occurred in 2009 to 2017, then the situation changed completely.

I think waiting for Bitcoin price changes in 4 years is necessary, the problem I see in the analysis that is happening now is the opposite, in the past almost all types of crypto flew, now they don't, My thinking is that investors will only target 1-5 types of Altcoins in a phenomenon that occurs every 4 years, except Bitcoin, the reason is simple: Altcoins are currently listed in the crypto market thousands, compared to 2009 or 2017, most likely investors don't want to take risks, they only focus on certain altcoins plus investors are busy creating their own coins, in the end investors break up, each defending their own home, with events like this that make some Altcoins die, without any other investors coming in, investors who have big vaults, that's the kind of coins that fly.

Bottom line: investors are many, but they are broke and busy defending their own home due to so many reborn cryptos.

I wouldn't bet on it, but I think there's a decent chance that we're not.

1. We didn't have a huge blow-off top
2. We already had a big and fast market cleanse (the stock market crash helped significantly imo)
3. The S2F model broke
4. We have far more institutional adoption
5. Fears of a bigger recession/inflation/stagflation

tl;dr we're in an uncharted market situation with all the unconventional things going in, and there's A LOT of market uncertainty.

Breaking the 4 year cycle doesn't necessarily mean that we'll reach ATHs faster though, it could also mean that it'll take longer for us to reach a new ATH.

Though it's unpredictable as what I've seen in my crystal ball (https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd), it says negative though I'm still hoping there will be a next ATH soon.

But who knows, every 4 years there's no miss about the All-time high in Bitcoin price, it will usually happen after a year when the next halving will come and the most anticipated moment is that ATH will come.

Just think positive and look around, the awareness of Bitcoin has been kept spreading and the adoption has been still kicking in each country, we saw a lot of news of Bitcoin making legal tender in their country.  Possible that makes Bitcoin will go to the next ATH prior than following the every 4 years cycle.

Bitcoin price is like repeating what happened in 2016 to 2020 again.

Because of this, I was confused and thinking it could be different this times too, but it is like what happened in the past want to happen again. Do not be surprised if you see a massive bull market in 2024/2025. With the look of things, it is becoming what would likely happen again.

Bitcoin all-time-high in 2017 was $19700 or around that price, it decreased to $9000 just like if compared to what happens in the last bull market, bitcoin all-time-high is $69000 and now bitcoin has reduced in price to $30000, while $30000 resistance is very strong.

Yes.

This can change over time, but not this time.

Well we've heard about super cycles, or a new trend that it's going to emerge and not follow the 4 year cycle as bitcoin's narrative has change.

However, I will say that this is not the case, we will just as least for me, will still follow the 4 year cycle. We all know that there is halving, the most important event in our history and the future price movement still is based n this process. Of course, we can argue that bitcoin's historical data is fairly young as compare to traditional financial markets so it's hard to identify cycles. But for now, I will have to agree that there is a 4 year cycle.

as someone who has been here for so long we know the 4 year cycle is the most awaited as the highest profit earning option but this is an option for me personally when buying at high prices while others when the market is greener I will sell it and take profit from the next decrease even though it's only a few percent because until now I prefer to buy in installments up to the lowest price of 70%, only 30% of the funds are devoted to waiting for the next ath

agree with your thinking, but what we see is that the bitcoin price is currently holding near the $30k area and that seems to indicate that the price area is very strong, but i'm speculating that the price will push faster to continue the next ATH

this is what i said in this thread it doesn't seem to have to wait a long time to get the next ATH let alone have to wait 4 years as happened in 2013, 2017 and 2021 last year, i think positively about this

Or we may possibly wait longer.  In crypto anything is possible.

But we can see that every after Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin never fails to reach its new ATH months after the event.  So I think, regardless of the number of people or company adopting Bitcoin, the catalyst for another Bull Trend and triggering a series of ATH is the Bitcoin-halving that happens every 4 years.



I think that we will still follow the 4-year cycle.

Halving is something that we keep on hoping all the time but to be fair I do not think that we need to wait for the halving for the next ATH. I think the next one is 2024 right? Maybe before that happens we are going to reach 68k+ price and break the ATH price. That would be something we need to work for though, it is not going to be something easy and we are not going to be making a ton of money easily by just waiting.

We need to get in, we need to buy more, if not you then the person next to you, without the market buying more bitcoin then how could it go up? So, in the end, someone needs to buy and we need to convince those people to do it now and not a few months later.

That is our expectation as we also had that experience. People are excited for the next halving to make a huge profit. This couldn't be erased from our minds and I'm going to agree and support it.

https://coinmarketcap.com/halving/bitcoin/
Can't wait to see it. I fill my bag already ready for the next halving, it can such another opportunity and another market experience. And I guess, everyone is also taking their time to accumulate this time looking forward to getting rewards 3-4 years from now.

But with the state of the bitcoin market like this, there is nothing wrong with denying that in the next 4 years, they hope that ATH will happen again because even if they expect it now, it is very unlikely to happen.
Why do you say you don't have to wait four years do you know one thing about the bitcoin market?

Despite the worse bear market that we are in right now, I'm still confident that we won't have to wait for up to four years to reach a new ATH. Bitcoin has proven a number of times that it can surprise everybody and that it can deliver what others may think is impossible.

It was around this current price that Bitcoin had in January of last year. In November of the same year, the $69,000 ATH was reached. So it is very possible also that from this day, it would take less than a year before another ATH will be reached.

Some new form of a cycle will emerge because I don't think bitcoin is done having cycles but it will not be like the previous ones simply because the past 5+ months proved that the previous cycle where price goes up tens of thousands of percentage and dumps 80% are done. We may start seeing smaller rises followed by smaller corrections instead of the 4-year bubble bust duo.

I always think positively about that where now many people have put money in bitcoin and other crypto, I also feel a very different atmosphere from before, bitcoin always has surprises

The price dump took place in May of last year as well as May of this year, bitcoin should have really earned $100k last year like a lot of speculation and predictions that we have probably all seen on the internet or this forum, but apart from that things are different. this year it looks like bitcoin will continue to hit another new ATH after weak hands dumped it at its current low price

2013 and 2017 we didn't see a lot of famous people or artists or rich people buying bitcoin and crypto, but after 2021 we saw a lot of famous people buying it and still holding it I don't need to mention but maybe you can find it on the internet, the atmosphere is different from before

I think the 4-year cycle could be broken now. Bitcoin has only gone up throughout history, we all know that very well and you can see it in the annual price chart. But in the history of bitcoin, it has never experienced a global world crisis, which is where we are now. No one knows what will happen to the price when the crisis really happens. But even at $1k, the blockchain will work just as well as at $30k.

I don’t know if I’d say the 4-year cycle is broken, but with the introduction of options and derivatives it has definitely been muted. I still expect we’ll see upward pressure after halvings as a result of the four year cycle, just no massive bubbles (only regular bubbles). I think a $120K price target in 2025 is a reasonable one given the recent market behavior. Might seem underwhelming, but it’s still a x4 from here in 3 years.

I don't think that we have seen the worst of the bear market yet, if we follow this 4 year cycle, then we still have 2 years (2022-2024) of downturn.

Again, ATH can be reached after the process of block halving, and if I'm not mistaken, it will be in 2024.so it's going to be more than 2 years before we can see that supposedly 6 digit price prediction.

The truth is, we can't really exactly predict the bitcoin price but sure, we can speculate what may possibly happen based from the previous history, like after halving. But with all the other factors in play today, the trend may change or may not. We can just observe and watch what will happen when this scenario comes up. But before this event happens, you should have your own contingencies to take whatever the opportunity is presented to you.

I'm not really sold to this 4-year cycle but since I don't really have a detailed technical analysis to somehow counter or argue against it, then we will just wait and see if this pattern will continue the fourth time around.

But if history will indeed happen once more, then it would not only be more than 2 years before a new ATH will be recorded. It will be more than 3 years. The next halving will happen 2 years from now. And since the ATH usually takes place more than a year after the halving, then the ATH will probably come not in 2024 but in 2025. That's a very long time.

The funny thing about a lot of people is they usually think that 'this time it's different.'.  It's never different because BTC's 4 year halving cycle is always being anticipated and always being played accordingly.  And here's the thing, as long as the whole crypto market revolves around BTC then it's also trapped together with BTC's 4 year cycle.  

I think in order for the market to break away from said cycle, BTC would have to lose dominance over the rest of the crypto market and have another coin lead the market.  Say ETH flippens BTC...  Yeah yeah I know but what if.  Then I think it would be the only time we could say 'this time it's different.'.

*Mutes thread*

the 4 year cycle seems to be broken and we didn't really hit the expected ATH last year in 2021 where it should have hit above $100k lol

but I will provide monthly charts here that I often use the MACD indicator where it looks like we still need a little more time to get the bull market back

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2dy9idBH/

yes that's true but the 4 year cycle can happen again and again and people might save their money to wait a long time to buy cheap crypto, but no one knows if it will happen again and I'm sure it won't happen again , this thread will live to share thoughts about it

Bitcoin doesn't always need 4 year cycle to achieve new ATH because currently we're already in phase where almost of Bitcoin already being mined (19 million circulations from 21 million circulations or around 90%). Most people always look from the history and this lead their thought every 4 year Bitcoin will achieve new ATH and for 2 years Bitcoin will suffered in bear seasons. We are not lack of Bitcoin traders or holders, but we are lack of knowledgeable users who learn about Bitcoin first before focus on the price and profit.

agree with you, people need to understand and learn about bitcoin as well as other altcoins, we don't need history that keeps repeating itself because the supply of bitcoins is only 2 million available even when the price really drops to $10k I'm sure rich people will pick it up a lot and the remaining supply is only 2 million plus the decreasing block reward makes us understand that it seems difficult to see the price of bitcoin going at a lower price than the current price

Some users are also speculating like that. They say that bears can continue till the year of 2024, maybe because every 4 year there was a halving? But for me I don't believe on that perception. Many happenings or events that can happen within 2 years and that can affect the price of bitcoin.

Maybe the price can become stable or dump more or maybe the price can pump higher. Also we shouldn't forget the fact that people still continuously buy bitcoin. They don't wait till 2023 or a much closer date to 2024 before they buy bitcoin. That event can also contribute to the recovery of the price and possibly can lead for it to exceed a certain limit.

100K was a bit of a tough task because the start of that run was at around 10k, during the may of 2020 during halving we were at around 10k, and during April of 2021 which was less than a year later, we reached 64k, that is x6+ plus we did that from 10k to 64k and not from 1k to 6.4k, so the money required to get there was a lot as well.

This time around we dropped to 30k and that is seen as a bad thing by many people but the relaity is that we could be seeing this as a great thing because if we do x6 again that would be 180k, a bit more and we reach 200k. So not only we have a chance to break over 100k, but we have a chance to reach 200k during next bull run.

100k is not unreasonable but the rush to assume it will occur now is more of a problem.  If we had 6x from the low of 25k thats well clear of 100k and long term possible, it'll likely be alongside fairly large events or changes in the world and I see those things happening on their own time line so its not now and thats fine.  People expect too much so we sell, its almost cause and effect and I'm less bearish then otherwise because the hype needed to be clipped in a healthy way.


Rich people dont matter in that way, its why they are rich is what we really care about.   If they can partake in BTC, gain and add to at the same time theres a mutual benefit.   BTC will gain from adoption from across the population but the more widespread the better, rich people cant force anything here and I imagine they'd end up favoring a centralized digital standard not BTC which is far too uncontrolled.
  You wont get much more avant-garde then Elon Musk but I dont consider him a proper influence even with the really large recent involvement he had, its not a driving force imo so I'm not looking at anyone else.  People in general we do need them to use BTC increasingly so thats the real measure not the constant graph watch on prices which is secondary importance mostly speculative.

Rich people matter in the sense that they have stronger hands, meaning that if they buy, we do not have to worry about them selling that easily. However, that is something regarding the drop of the price, and not about the increasing of the price, that would mean that rich people need to keep on notifying the world whenever they buy a bunch. 100K is basically x3 give or take right now, which is nothing in the crypto world, I am %100 sure that we are going to end up with that one day or another, its really such a small increase that I personally believe that nothing could stop bitcoin from reaching that level eventually.

I think 100k $ is a reasonable target, 180k $ for the next bull season is a bit high?. From 1 to 10 is simple, but 10 to 100 is completely different. The bearish cycle is not over yet and currently bitcoin is trading at $ 30,000 for me which is not too bad either. If bitcoin can sustain this price until the end of the bear season, my target is still $ 100k for the next bull season.

Super cycle description really gave a stare when the market came back after the dump in May and make very close new ATH in November. I think things will change on the 4 year cycle and make it unpredictable, halving may still be a important date to start a cycle but the bull pump will get more unpredictable. The 4 year cycle make it very interesting but the process of onchain will affect the coin in future

Nah, I would still follow the 4 year cycle since that is the time Bitcoin would start to pump after the halving and there's no need to change that. The more Bitcoin do the halving the more the market price getting expensive that's why it pump like skyrocketing to the moon after the halving since that is the start of bull run although it takes time to become bullish though. And the recent pumping back and forth getting a new ATH was just new to me although we aren't certain that it would happen in the next bull run cycle.

How can you see if the bitcoin price recently got a new ATH while at the moment the bitcoin price is still below $30 and around $28 and this means the bitcoin market is still bull lish and we also don't know when this bearish situation will end.
So let's just be patient.

180k USD is a small amount to be targeted for the next Halving season(Bull run) in 2017 we hit almost 20k and in 2021 we hit almost 70k so look at it, that is more than 300% increase from the past ATH , so if we will look at it for 2025?  then that would be more than 200k so yeah it will be attainable i think..
but still depend on how we will support the market because we are the one who will make this happen .

In 2014 I first heard about Bitcoin, but at that time a lot of negative news because many were sure that the future of Bitcoin would end because drops from more than $ 1000 to under $ 150, but Bitcoin could rise and skyrocket in 2017 and then drop again again , next is 2021 which skyrocketed and 2022 drops more than 50%, if you look at the graphics, of course this is a 4 -year trend that is repeated.

I always said that it is 3 year cycle and never anyone found an argument against it. Remember that 2011 was the year where all of this pizza deals and the price going up all of that happened, 2014 was the year where we broke over 1k for the first time, 2017 was the year when we reached 20k, and 2020 was the year we started to go up a lot, sure it kept on until 2021 but it started all in 2020 and broke over the previous ATH in 2020.

So all in all, I always believed that it was 3 year cycle and not a 4 year cycle. I do believe that it could be broken, why shouldn't it be broken, of course it can be, but so far I haven't seen it broken yet.

^ I am almost convinced by your point and it seems you are right.
If we look back the history it seems this is what exactly happened, but I thought it will take 1 year right after the next halving the price will increase but now I realized it only has 3 years gap. So possible by next there will be a new ATH again, but last year 2021 we have experienced a twice ATH and I hope soon there will be another raise of ATH in the market.
However, that cycle is not a guarantee that BTC will follow the cycle, it will remain unpredictable.

the market cycle seems to make a certain market become a green field full of fruit gardens that are ready to be picked, but why did that happen...? Has this really become a candle that has been manipulated by whales and bears, so for us holders it seems very easy to buy and sell in the next 3-4 years ...... even though I hope the market changes quickly and goes to ath new but this is impossible because the recovery is too fast to be reversed

We don't know what lies ahead of us, especially what Bitcoin market trend is up in the next few months.  Remember TA had been shamed by BTC multiple times so if we rely on the TA for BTC trend then there is a huge possibility that we are wrong on our next prediction.  I am not against your thought of a 4-year cycle not happening this time since I am open to all possibilities but between a TA  that had been shamed by the BTC market multiple times and a cycle that had been followed by BTC several times, I would still be inclined that BTC will still follow its 4-year cycle trend.


After BTC halving Bitcoin tends to have a series of ATH-breaking events until the Bull market shifted to the Bear market.


I agree, it is not guaranteed so we just need to wait and see if it will happen again or not.

Though we can never be sure about the future but we are just hoping positive movement basing on its 4-year cycle. As we are just waiting for things to happen, what we can do today is think of ways how to possibly take advantage of the market, if you believe that there's bright future for you on this market. Not all can spend their hard-earned savings for a market that is too volatile and not stable. So it is your own prerogative if you will continue to support this market or not.

Until now we can say that the 4 year trend is happening again, if by the end of the year the price cannot reach ATH which has happened in November 2021 then we will need much longer time to see bitcoin rise again, but when the price is dropping then now is a good opportunity to buy.

If the 4-year cycle is also because the bitcoin block is halving.
The Bitcoin block halving event also important role in the market. If you can see that the cycle also connected in bitcoin block halving, this is the fundamental side of Bitcoin, I'm very bullish on Bitcoin because of this event, one of the main event on Bitcoin.

Honestly, I do expect that to happen, but in my opinion it's too high to be achieved by 2025. ATH 200k by 2025 means that the price of bitcoin will have to increase about 6 times the current price. If history keeps repeating that, then we get the ATH you say. However, there are no guarantees, so it's all just conjecture since no one knows what bitcoin will look like in the next bull run. And if the cycle repeats, it is entirely possible that bitcoin continues to drop below 20k.

from this thread I can explain once again, look when you came in 2014 and then did you ever hear of a company or rich and famous people investing in bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, look at anyone who invested heavily in bitcoin and crypto from the end of 2020 until right now, it's possible that the cycle is no longer validbitcoin always has a surprise for it, whether it's next month, end of the year or next year to take another ATH, at least take a chance when people get the moment people sell it cheap

If you should put the record of highest year of making Profit in cryptocurrency, you know that the statistics of it will be unbalance because that year you think you have made profit may another year some body some where fails to make profit, i will say that statistics to be proven is individual kind of achievement in cryptocurrency investment

I used to think so, but looking at the recent chain of events I expect we need a full cycle to see a new ATH for Bitcoin, I was hoping to get to that before the end of this year but I expect that to be difficult now, there has been a lot of regulatory restrictions by governments as well as news The bad for Bitcoin makes me rule out a close top at the moment, don't forget also the crash of Luna and its stable currency, in my opinion, this will have a huge negative impact on Crypto in general and Bitcoin in particular.

2014 was not too dissimilar to now, plenty of rich people and business were involved back then.   Market cycles repeat themselves endlessly despite various developments we arent making any extraordinary move this time that cannot be compared to prior action.   Its the dollar which has changed more if anything, the whole gameplan for BTC for 2022 was known and outlined in 2014 so they knew where they were heading and roughly what would be true on BTC blockchain many years prior where as Dollar did take extreme measures and will continue to break rules its held for years till there is no standard of value left there.

yes i know that when the problem happened to LUNA, the price of bitcoin also fell and only touched $25k and today we are back above $30k

we have experienced the third time the 4 year cycle

2013
2017
2021

I think there is a difference every cycle we go through even though we know it will eventually make the price touch a new ATH, but here we are again aware that it won't keep repeating itself because of course it doesn't make it interesting when everyone will know about the cycle, maybe a lot of people people who have sold it cheap because they still adhere to this cycle I'm afraid it will disappoint everyone if in the end the cycle doesn't repeat itself and we will be embarking on a new ATH in the near future

if that is going to happen then we are talking at 2025 here? as the cycle mentioned are 2013-17-21 and the next is 25?

well it doesn't matter to me because I prefer holding my coins till at least 2025-28

there are already proof that the 4 years cycle is indeed coming so I believe and voted also for the positive approach .

I don't believe in blind cycles. I believe in cause and consequence. Bitcoin was doing pretty well by last year and probably would still be on the last ATH's price range (or even above), if it wasn't for the raisement in interest rates by FED in US. On the moment the speculation about the new interest rates started, bitcoin stagnated and declined slowly from that moment on, until the rates stopped being a speculation and became reality, so bitcoin crashed to the levels we saw on the past weeks. Anyway, bitcoin doesn't depend on a cycle to recover itself. All the market needs are "causes" or "triggers" that will awake positive consequenecs for bitcoin.

And frankly, the more traditional markets and fiat currencies lose value and credibility, the more bitcoin will be benefited. It's a dilemma we live, because at same time we are being prejudiced as country and society, bitcoin is prone to gain value.

In this case I have 50/50 confidence in the 4 year cycle that has been happening so far, indeed we basically see if the 4 year cycle makes the Bitcoin price experience the highest increase and is accompanied by the creation of an all-time high price as happened in 2014, but we can't deny that in fact a 4-year cycle can't guarantee the price of bitcoin always rises significantly, because after all bearish and bullish prices in the market really depend on the demand and supply mechanism that occurs during the 4-year cycle, but as far as I know, demand and Bitcoin supply will also change over time so there is no guarantee that a 4 year cycle will increase the price.

You have a point about not following the 4-year cycle but I still believe that it will be followed this time. The whales still have the impact which they just send their investments from here and there, the other markets like stocks and the others. Well, if it happens that it didn't happen to follow the 4-year cycle then that's better for us, we don't have to wait another year for the expected bull run just after the halving. That's favorable honestly but in terms of belief, I still think that the market will follow it. Nevertheless, the possible next halving in 2028 and the next years might break the cycle IMO since that's likely the market will be much bigger.

I know for a fact that we are not going to take a big step forward when the next cycle happens, there is no doubt in my mind about that at all. There is nothing wrong with the fact that we are not going to end up with a good return even before that though, I mean it is going to happen one way or another and that will result with the fact that we are going to end up with something that will be a higher price in the long run.

This is why I believe that if we could get there it will be something that will end up with a great even before all of that time comes and I believe that we should not be really considering the situation to be that much of a trouble at all.

There are even experts that predicted btc to cross 1 million usd. If a prediction like that is possible then why not a 180k or a 200k when they are in fact more realistic than 1million? But like you I agree that it can not be achieved easily. Maybe not in the year 2025 but for 2025 I am only expecting a price of 80k up to 100k but I see that in order for the cycle to repeat we must first drop below 20k? Geez, so there is a big condition right there but if that is guaranteed then why not? And why will we be scared. We are in fact going to be happy because it allows us to accumulate at the best value before we finally take off to that expected price.

They can be experts in some areas, but not in crypto. Nobody had been able to predict right for the incoming, though we believe about Bullrun during halving, however, in the case, they think that Bitcoin will reach $180k or $1mil, that was overly speculated and far from reality.

The next halving could be somewhat full of surprise and excitement, yet I wasn't thinking of $180k but $100k is quite possible. However, we couldn't be confident enough to see such a huge spike as that only happens if whales and big investors will take action during that time.

For your information reaching $100k or even $180k is a tiny rise not a huge spike.
If you look at the history for example the last cycle ending in 2018, the rise was 13200%. In comparison going from $30k to $180k is tiny 500% rise.
You see, just because there are too many zeros in front of a number that doesn't make the whole rise a big one.

I like your thinking and it's true bitcoin doesn't take 4 years to recover, so let's see that later

Not exactly 4 years, but we know that there are triggers and catalyst for the next bull run and that is bitcoin halving. So when is the next process? its May 2024.

But I somewhat agree that more money will flow in the next bull run that might come to traditional markets. Of course inflation will be one factor, specially for smart people to really put their money into bitcoin as a hedge against this rate increase and overtime, instead of losing value in our money, bitcoin might do the opposite.

yes as I wrote in the previous thread where we always follow the flow of this 4 year cycle, whether in the future we will be like that, I don't think it will happen again but would love to hear everyone's thoughts here

In addition to the four-year cycles of bitcoin growth, we can also see two-year cycles when the price declined sharply. From recent history, this has happened in 2018, 2020 and 2022. Therefore, if we are not at the bottom now, we will probably reach it soon. And it may take another two years to recover and then a new bull run after the halving will occur.

When the bull run began people saw that it was slower than the previous ones, and while we could attribute this to the fact that bitcoin is bigger and as such it needs more and more money to move up in price, at the same time there was a reason to believe that bitcoin could get out of the 4 year cycle we have been experimenting since the creation of this market.

However with the current bear market we are going through, things are not as clear as before, so we will need to wait and see if bitcoin has been finally be able to break free from the 4 year cycle or if we have to wait even more to see something like this happening.

I voted yes, why not.  :)

Halving is a very relevant event for Bitcoin because it is huge!
It's a demonstration of Bitcoin's scarcity, going down every 4 years.
And every 4 years, inflation is halved.

It's a question how much Bitcoin will rise but a rising Bitcoin price is very likely.  :)

I don't think so in this time. Thins has been changed, price and actors on this market are different, and can also happen that price will rise the next year, and not in 2025. Why? Because of quantitative easing, that is the best

indicator to be look for the success of bitcoin and the stocks (in general).

I guess that many time should pass before of a new rise of bitcoin...

Sometimes I think that every year there is a different scenario and I do not fully believe the bitcoin 4 year cycle period. The reason is that in last year 2021, bitcoin did not reach the blow off targets. If you compare 2017 and 2021 bull markets, you will see a lot of differences between these two bull markets.
Also, this means we may also not see a big dump in the year 2022 and hopefully 26-27K was the bottom of the bear market.

We have experienced that for over 10 years now so how many Halving had passed and all give us beneficial market so why doubt this to happen once again?
and besides this trend is our Only hope specially for those Long Term Holder that making money for quite some time lol .

Bitcoin to the moon in 2025  ;D

But if you really know the market of crypto  then at least you knew that each Halving there is a great increase happening from the market and this is something what people are talking about here.

Yeah , it is still better to not expect too much because failure may come and this is more sadness to bring , though we are not closing our doors for this to happen or now , what is important for 2025 is the price to increase more than the last ATH and at least break that finally the 2=6 figure value.
hope that at least early 2025 we will be having this increase like what happened in 2021 when from January we experienced the growth continuously .

I don't think we can call this a "bear market" because if you look at the charts last time we had a drop was about 2 months ago and ever since then the price has been going sideways and sideways movement is not considered a "bear market", it is more like an accumulation phase.

But 26-27k is 60% drop from ATH mate so what is the difference between 2017-2018 and 2021-22? we are still in the second quarter yet experienced this low already so what more in the 3rd quarter that mostly the season when market shows really bad phasing and also the more dumping season before the last quarter comes.
though there is still hopes as we already have institutional investors inside this market and still keeping their funds inside .

we already experienced that couple of times before and now we are in the waiting for the another 4 year cycle and that is supposedly called Halving season right?

so why doubt this to happen? and besides there is no losses if we will be able to wait for long term instead of short term investing.

people don't see a lot of changes and differences between now and in the past, I just think it looks like we don't need to go back to history that keeps repeating itself and it doesn't take long to recover, but I still respect anyone's thoughts

If you are a long-term holder, trend is not your only hope. So let’s look at the 4 year cycle, would you take 2021 as the year we went up? Because in 2019 we started with 3.5k and reached 14k and ended up with 7k, or the year of 2020 started with 7k, reached over 20k just that year, started the next year at nearly 30k levels, that should tell you something, 2021 on the other hand started around there and peaked at 68k but ended not so greatly at all.

So which year is the cycle? Let’s assume 2021 and 68k as the peak, why shouldn't we have it on 2022? Or 2023? That would break the cycle, but still help the people who hold it long term anyway.

I experienced twice the trend, namely in 2014 and 2018, if in 2022 it repeats again then I think it will be difficult Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies can rise again, I hope Bitcoin is not dropped significantly like the previous 4 years, now the market has dropped more than 50%, and I hope Can go up again to $ 40K or $ 50k, making us optimistic that the future of cryptocurrencies is still brilliant.

Bitcoin all-time-high was $69000, now at $30000, the fall is even more than 50% already, that is even for bitcoin, altcoins had fallen more than 70% or 80% or more. As bitcoin had fallen like 2x like you daid, most altcoins has fallen over 5x or more. The bear market is this year just like 2018, nothing is changing that, there is more bear market coming.

Final capitulation might be around 85% from last all time high and it could go down as low as the previous all time high of $19k in 2017. So that is a big fall, nevertheless this kind of drop is needed to sort of shake the market again and then grow as big as its previous runs in the next bull run. So yeah, nothing has change, maybe just the numbers or how much it will grow in 2024-2025.

While that will imitate the drop we saw during the bull run of 2017 at the same time I do not think it is as likely, and my reasoning for this is that this time the bull market was not as explosive as it was back then.

So to me it makes sense the drop could be lower too, however this is something we will only find out as time passes, however regardless of which scenario is the one which will actually come to happen I think it is a good idea to buy some bitcoin right now, as the discount we are currently getting is significant enough to justify using some our cash available to buy it.

Yeah, I'm also thinking the same, I mean we've seen the when we drop to $25k, the market bounce back as investors knows that this is the cheapest price that they can get, meaning once the opportunity is there and even we hear a lot of negativity, investors are going to buy bitcoin when their is a huge dip.

So this might be the case again, when it goes down, buy the dip. Anyhow, the 4 year cycle might continue again in 2024-2025 and I'm not seeing that it will be broken anytime soon.

The fact that we reached the previous ATH (almost at $20k) which has never happened before, is another good indication that the cycles are broken and we are seeing an entirely new trend. If you look at the previous cycles, they always have a much bigger peak compared to this one and their bubble burst never leads to price going to the previous peak. For example when the 2017 bubble burst the price didn't drop to previous peak at $1200 but instead reached $3200 which is about 3 times higher.
This time we didn't even have a bubble and price dropped down to the previous peak!

that's why it's necessary to look back at previous historical trails to see how strongly the bitcoin price will hold its current value, i believe that it didn't drop any deeper than people think, i keep reminding when people hoped to hit the $100k price last year it didn't reached, so it looks like the cycle is not working well even at the end of the year bitcoin and other cryptos are experiencing very sharp declines too which shouldn't have happened.

for several times we observed this already so why need to doubt it could happen ? and also I have seen this in 2017 and in 2021  , so i am confident that 2025 will bring more than what I got last 2 halving .
maybe it is not that easy to wait for long time  but trust me , it is worth a wait and worth a risk.

Didn't expect to the current Bitcoin price, until the end of May I was still buying Bitcoin when the price was around $ 32K and now it is more dropped and may be under $ 20K, some time ago it was in the telegram group that predicted there would be panic and now proven, but I hope this will not be long and Bitcoin can return to the $ 35K level.

Most of us didn't expect this. All the time the price will just fluctuate between 27k to 30k because that is what we see. You bought at 32k? But don't tell me you are regretting now, when you see the current price? But you said you have been buying for almost a month now?

So, my guess is you are doing a dca which means you still have some funds left to buy a btc, but you better leave that telegram group you are currently subscribing because listening to their advises is not beneficial as they only scare the people spreading FUDs and how sure they are that people are now panicking? Panic to buy maybe but panic to sell? I don't think so. We don't know how long the bear will run but btc can soon return on 35k, that's too low and easy to achieve.

From what we observed some years back,i will said that the analysis of experiencing the next bear market being in four time is correct. Bitcoin experience bullish market last year that what about 60000 thousand or 69000 thousand.so they are for we began to to experience another fallen of cryptocurrency around September November December in 2021, and if Bitcoin have not recover or reach such year, it will not go back the bullish market many people will think that search policy also speculation is not existing but that is history and the life pattern of cryptocurrency.

I think new people with new minds will take bitcoins in their weak hands and anyone who still adheres to the belief about the 4 year cycle I think it will be interesting when the price of bitcoin recovers quickly and then those who sell it cheap will buy it back at a higher price. pricey and waiting in vain under $15k as they expected, let's see

There is no point to panic right now, buying bitcoin when it was around the 32k level was fine as it was difficult to predict that another crash was coming.

So avoid to panic as that is the main reason people lose money in the markets, so take your time and stop reading telegram groups that are negative as this will increase the chances that you sell now when the price is very low, when in fact what you should be doing is the opposite and keep loading all the bitcoin you can get.

the best chance is when people don't miss the moment a lot of crypto is also dropping below the ATH it's almost 90% it looks like it's good enough to take it too besides bitcoin which is currently still holding on at $20k, people are too panicked to sell right now

What will happen to PlanB and his Stock To Flow Model?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJqjUecVkAM2e1R?format=jpg&name=small

I used to doubt it, then I believed it, and then I doubted it again, only to be called stupid for doubting it. I am the stupid one in the forum, but pooyah87 I value your opinion, what's your current opinion of Stock To Flow, and what's your opinion of those people who remain in the belief that it's not a flawed model?

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1538079814443204609

In my opinion, if the 4-Year cycle of bitcoin repeats itself, then there is a possibility that this year bitcoin will experience a decline of up to 83% from the last ATH in 2021. Moreover, the bearish phase has taken place in the last few months where until now the bitcoin price is still difficult to penetrate the price area above $23k.

no need to worry and you don't have to panic selling it, plant in your mind that 1 BTC = 1 BTC  8)

https://i.imgur.com/eDd4GF3.png (https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1537384435544248321)

keep holder

Do you still believe in "the model"? The model has based everything on the supply side, not the demand side, and it assumes that the demand remains constant. I believe that it is flawed thinking. If there was a Black Swan event that would remove 80% of liquidity from the cryptocurrency market for 5 years, do you believe the model would still work? Simply because supply is limited?

I think bitcoin price is following a 4 year cycle again. Moreover, throughout this year, bitcoin continues to move in the red zone where the bitcoin price has fallen very badly. The decline in price so far this year has put bitcoin at its worst pace since 2018. Therefore, speculation of a repeat of bitcoin's four-year cycle is likely to re-occur.

not sure just share that tweet and reply to it, i created this thread to see a new thought on the outdated 4 year cycle for the future, i think it needs new thinking to see bitcoin and other crypto hit other ATH without having to look at the 4 year cycle

If indeed the 4 year cycle happened again we should have got $100k in the last year to be exact 2021, what you saw in May last year bitcoin dropped and other cryptocurrencies dramatically and then got another high price at the end of the year, it happened exactly the same in May yesterday the price of bitcoin and other crypto also fell so I think we will see a green trend when we enter the end of the year

This is going to take a while before we figure it out. I mean it doesn't have to happen, or it could happen and we do not know what’s going to happen so we can't make our prediction based on that. Scratch that, we could actually make all of our predictions based on anything we want, hell you can make it based on the shape of the moon if you want, it’s all on you, what I mean was we "shouldn't" make it based on that instead.

This is why I believe that it’s going to be something very special and we will end up with a great profit in the long run if we just hold, cycle or not, it will definitely get a lot higher eventually one day and that will require patience.

The end of 2017 I bought bitcoin for more than $14k, but the price has been decreasing since 2018 and i sold all bitcoins in june 2018 for $6300, when compared to now of course there are many similarities, namely the price dropped more than 60% compared to previous ATH , of course this makes us worried that the trend of 2022 will repeat in 2018.

This is true, I can't speak on behalf of the cycle or not, anything could happen, but at the end of the day we are going to end up with something that will be an upward trend one day, which is guaranteed for me as well. I wouldn't suggest anyone to make their investments based on that of course, make your own calculations but I personally feel this way.

This is why I believe that the best thing we could do right now would be waiting, buy and hodl. Everyone does that really, some people eventually sell because they get panic, but aside from that, there are so many people and even companies and hell even nations who just buy and hold, that is the right thing to do.

Nice find and if we actually took the time we could find many more people like that just in this forum if we did our best to dig that information out from the old posts.

And just as there were people which capitulated back then we will have people which will capitulate now and which will be quoted a decade in the future about how they gave up their bitcoin at 17k, and the people at that time will be surprised to see someone capitulating at such a low price, as at minimum bitcoin will have a price of 6 figures at that point.

Yes that's right, if you look at the current price position which has dropped more than 66% then there is a trend equation like 4 years ago, if 2018 took more than 2 years to recover but I'm optimistic that 2022 won't take long to reach new ATH again , maybe it could happen this year.

The cycle this time was disrupted by massive printing of USD so Im not sure its quite as reliable as it might be with a steady flow of new dollars.   Its generally true but this might explain why we've returned to the 200 week average after only 2 years previously when we sold off on the initial lockdown and global GDP shock of 2020.   I think we can put in a base price this year and most wont accept this as positive till long after, where as normally it might take alot of 2023 also before settling sideways into 2024.   

No doubt, I've read about some experts analyze and speculate, about Altcoins and Bitcoin, what actually happened was far from expectations, all beyond reason, ATH and Bitcoin move like missiles, but Altcoins move like turtles.

Meaning, I like you said there is no need to focus on Altcoins, investors tend to be more friendly with Bitcoin.

Yes, but we will have to wait and see if it is still valid after the halving in 2024. So far still holds true, last bull run 2017 and then 4 years after that 2021, even if we have the corona virus in the background the pattern still hold. The thing is that it become complicated when we have lots of predicted like the S2F model who put us somewhat to believed that $100k can be touch in 2021.

what if the 4 year cycle of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies changes?, indeed we still don't know because it is still like 2018,
and the determination is if the price of Bitcoin drops below $15k of course everything will sell Bitcoin and create panic,
and maybe 4 year cycle will change, hopefully not!, because we still believe Bitcoin can go to $100k

yes because bitcoin is the mother of all altcoins without bitcoin no altcoins , don't forget to give your vote on this thread  ;D

basically bitcoin didn't really hit $100k in 2021 yesterday where a lot of people thought a 4 year cycle would push on that price but sadly it didn't happen, mid last year the price slumped the same as the middle of this year so think positive to continue the next ATH without another 4 year cycle

Unique things happen with Bitcoin every 4 years, if previously Halving Day but people will talk a lot of prices that occur every 4 years, this is because it has happened 3 times, namely the significant drop price that had previously occurred in 2014 and 2018.

I would say it's because some entity try to push that hard last year, that bitcoin will breach $100k base on some price modeling. So now we are back to basics, I mean the price tank after that, went as low as $17k and we still didn't think it will the lowest low in this bear market.

So maybe in the next bull cycle, we might see $100k and with that, the trend will continue, unless there is some changes along the way. But I highly doubt it, 2017 and 2021 is bullish, and then the next run should be in 2025.

So far, bitcoin will always repeat itself, this has become a character that will continue to do so. each approaching the halving period, bitcoin will experience a decrease in price and after the halving occurs then a few months later bitcoin will create ATH again.
bitcoin has proven that, so for those who already understand, they will usually hold on until the halving period ends.
but it is clear that investing in bitcoin requires a long time of patience and the funds are indeed quite large, because events like this happen every 4 years.

I also doubt that 2021 we have really reached ATH or not? sadly it didn't really hit $100k as expected maybe ATH might actually be there some other time, when people believe that 2021 will hit ATH and people start to believe the cycle is working, of course there won't be a price correction in mid-2021 until the price falls when that, although it's just my speculation but we will see in some time not necessarily in 2025 it will reach ATH maybe earlier or in the near future

big holders will find it easier to cheat and play with the price of bitcoin itself when the little people under them believe that the cycle is still working, when in fact the cycle is no longer working and is very ancient too because it is easy to guess.

I think Bitcoin's 4-year cycle this time will be different if the market is bullish again in the next few months,
because I've heard about an article on telegram that expert traders say that this bear market will end faster than the previous bear market,
if that happens then Bitcoin's 4 year cycle will no longer be valid

because I believe Bitcoin hasn't really reached its true ATH in 2021 yesterday, where the 4 year cycle in 2021 is a complete failure in my view and that means no more 4 year cycles will succeed, the bear market is unlikely to last long, but this is just my speculation and by the way thanks for giving your opinion in this thread

The 4-year cycle is undoubtedly real. Having the block reward coded to lower directly impacts the supply of the market. Since price is the result or supply vs demand, the block reward being on a 4-year reduction cycle directly causes the price to increase. This will continue until it doesn’t, at which point we’ll see a crash like never before witnessed. I think we likely have another cycle or two before that’s a big concern though. For now it’s party on.

yes and no,

yes because halving and it usually does so

no because as you can see right now there is bunch of more people investing and get involved in crypto industry, Head of state, artist(obviously), bank and investment company that usually invest in traditional investment now are watch the crypto closely. so maybe we can see the new ATH but the 4 year cycle is offcourse will be more crazy in future

We can see that the previous 3 Bitcoin halvings succeeded in making the Bitcoin price reach new ATH and finally the crypto market became bullish.
This means that in 2024, where the next 4 year cycle will occur, the same thing should happen with the last 3 cycles. This should be enough
to motivate us to buy more Bitcoins, especially now that Bitcoin prices are still cheap. Buying Bitcoin at a price of $24k should be enough to give us
a big profit if we can hold it until the next cycle occurs. Moreover, we do not have to buy 1 BTC, we can buy Bitcoin according to our respective
financial capabilities. The most important thing is to buy with the extra money we have, don't force borrow money to buy Bitcoin. Although investing
in Bitcoin is safe and profitable, because the price is volatile, it carries a high risk.

Again, you just have to look at the cycle itself, the block halving will be sometime in May 2024, so that will be biggest event as it will be the catalyst, the fuel for the bull run that we are going to witnessed and it will last till 2025. The only contention is how far the bitcoin bull run is. And as obviously, we have speculated that it could be in the $100k range bare minimum. So for me and this is based on the history of bitcoin that 2025 might be the bull run and it will be the biggest so far.

yes i believe it's really real the same as i discussed in my thread before this thread here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5043315) , it's just that i believe more that we don't have to wait 4 years to get the next ATH, thanks for your opinion

unfortunately 2021 looks like a failure in my opinion how do you believe 2025 will succeed

There is no such thing as true ath but bitcoin can increase as long as it wants, sky is only the limit. As long as we break the previous price highest price then that is already considered to be an ath, we can now sleep peacefully after that because the price can now go down. If you still didn't sell on that point then that was already your fault.

Can't say yet that the 4 year cycle was a failure not until if the price broke to its last ath but I really wish it was a failure because man, 4 years of waiting is pretty long but I guess this is one of the challenges or consequences if you are going to hod for long term. No one is being forced to do it anyway and there are still more flexible terms out there.

yes i agree with you and i have confirmed it is just part of my thinking and i still appreciate every thought of anyone here including you, as we know the price of bitcoin has not really reached $100k as predicted since 4 years ago, everyone may invested their money 4 years ago and held it hoping in 2021 to experience the ATH price, finally the price fell in mid last year 2021, that's why I say that we haven't really hit the real ATH

Why doubt the fact that the current ATH (all time high) was reached last 2021.  You cannot tell a price of Bitcoin that didn't happen yet to be the ATH of Bitcoin market.  The four year cycle is still working, IMO.  And the one you are wishing about, Bitcoin reaching a new ATH may happen a year or several months after the next Bitcoin halving.


I think Bigholders will play the bitcoin market to their advantage but they will never cheat because whales cannot modify the blockchain to apply their cheat.  ;D  BTW, how can you prove that the 4-year cycle isn't working anymore?

If you think 2021 was a failure, what do you think as a success? I mean we reached 68k, previous ATH was 20k, we weren't even there, the bottom of 2020 was 3.4k, which means that from bottom of 2020 to peak of 2021 it was 3.4k to 68k, that is 20x increase just in bitcoin, do not get me started on all the altcoins that did 100x and more. This is why I believe that we shouldn't be really considering 2021 as a failure, it was one of the best years of bitcoins history.

You may dislike it because it didn't reach 100k, but that is a personal thing and not what the market in general thinks. We are going to have the same type of amazing increase in 2025 for sure, maybe not enough for your taste but a good increase for sure.

before this thread i made a previous thread here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5399886.0) , i also discussed about that cycle but sadly many people ignore that and don't take the previous moment as well as now, although i'm sure the 4 year cycle won't work anymore in the future because i feel 2021 is failed cycle, but thanks for your opinion


that's the speculation and analysis that I made before this thread, but I will still respect anyone's speculation here because again it's just a speculation, but if we really look at history we should get the right price, but let's both see if there is a movement bitcoin price increase after the end of this year or vice versa, if before 2025 we get another ATH I will raise this thread

So what is your ATH for Bitcoin?  If it is $100k then what will you call if the price of Bitcoin hits way past that?  I am kinda confused since you are talking about ATH and yet do not recognize the current ATH recorded by Bitcoin.  As far as the cycle is concerned, I believe it is the time when the Bear market transitioned to the bull market, the halving, and the highest price recorded during the peak of the bull market.  Isn't the recent cycle done that?  The current ATH peaked at $69k which is higher than the ATH of 2017.  So why do you call the current cycle a fail one?

If we look at the track record of the previous 4 year cycle which was fairly successful, which is like you said Bitcoin could reach its highest price
in 2021. This means that it is quite possible for the next 4 year cycle the Bitcoin price will reach the new ATH price, I don't care if Bitcoin will hit
$100k or even $200k, the most important thing is that the price of Bitcoin is higher than the price of the previous 4 year cycle, it can provide
a large profit. Therefore don't waste the opportunity to collect Bitcoins from now on. Especially now that the price of Bitcoin is very low,
so imagine if we have a lot of Bitcoin in 2025, we can make a very big profit. That's why making Bitcoin a long-term investment is very profitable.
Because the price of Bitcoin is getting more expensive every 4 year cycle occurs.

That's too high for Bitcoin and too long for everyone to wait. I will even sell Bitcoin when I see the price of Bitcoin has passed $70K because usually after such a high increase, there will always be a moment of decline before increasing again in a bigger direction. So I can still make more purchases when the Bitcoin declines again.

yes i know the price of ATH last year was $69k but it didn't reach the target completely and the price was dropped in mid 2021 and not exactly the same as the history of the previous 4 year cycle, only 5 months held in 2021 the bitcoin price increased after it was dropped by big traders because they know the public will certainly believe the 4 year cycle they have been waiting for all this time will push the bitcoin price up for a full year in 2021, but the price was dropped and I believe yesterday's 2021 moment is still not finished from its true purpose, all playing out when prices fell at that time, so understand what I mean here that not all cycles and history will repeat itself in the exact same way see 2013 and 2017

at that time not many companies or big people came for bitcoin but for this and later we see a lot that will support bitcoin and this technology, do you think that 4 year cycle will work and repeat the exact same history, it's something easy also predictable and can be played by big holders, why this thread was created because I think the 4 year cycle is no longer worthy of being used as a benchmark to get another ATH and I believe no we don't have to wait for the next 4 years to touch another ATH


that's an opinion that should be respected here, that's why I'm happy to get a lot of thoughts from all my friends on this forum about this 4 year cycle, I'm not sure bitcoin will touch $200k, while that $100k is hard to come by in 2021 yesterday, so stop dreaming high like that, there is still a lot of time to get it and always invest wisely

When compared to the price of ATH that had occurred in 2021, we lost about 70%, and I think negative trends every 4 years are repeated, for the Pope, of course this is an opportunity to buy at a cheap price, I suggest not to panic to see the current phenomenon, focus Buy and hold for the long term.

strangely people are waiting for it to be below $10k like the previous year, even though if you look at the ATH price yesterday it should have been $20k including the cheapest price and has fallen more than 70% and bitcoin has never dropped more than 90% even now I'm still collecting a little little by little to buy it if it goes under $20k, long term investment is good

The halving has clearly been proven, you are absolutely right that it is inevitable and bitcoin will repeat it again, the way it continues so far has brought tangible evidence.
after the halving period, there will be a large increase and will create renewable ATH, so that when the next halving is in 2024, ATH will be created in 2025.
but it looks like the price of $200K is too high and seems ambitious, because what bitcoin needs is to first break through the $100K resistance it has always wanted.

$100k was also hard to come by in 2021 so not sure if it will hit $200k for the next few years if the bitcoin price drops below $10k as the lowest price, but if it stays above $20k I think it will be easier to hit $100k, but I bet bitcoin won't wait long in 2025 even we will touch it before 2025

bitcoin has always been near $20k and it has always stayed there, just waiting for time to recover and get a bull market, what do you think about this and do you believe bitcoin will hit $10k   :)

I'm still realistic about it, because it's true that $10k can be achieved and $20k can also be achieved,
it's just that if you look at the news and market sentiment, of course the bears are still in favor, it's just that September is about to end,
and October according to the history of currency prices crypto is always bullish, of course this makes us believe that $20k is possible in October, even $40k.

I don't think a bull market is to be expected this year or even early quarter next year, that's unlikely. The price speculation to $10k will always be a possibility, considering how much percentage we got tank last 2018 bear market. My maximum bet will be on the range of $13k-$14k though that will gonna hit here and probably the 4 year cycle isn't gonna happen anymore.

Yes, I believe so. This bear market has been around before, and it's always the same. The excitement dies off, people look at their bags and wonder what they are doing. There is always a turning point when the bull returns, but we don't know when it will be. We build our portfolios in bear markets, and this community is built in bear markets. There is no doubt in my mind that better days are ahead.

yes that's what keeps the price of bitcoin being pushed to touch $20k if the price is below it, because it never seems to change always playing at the same number to wait for a bull market

yes that is also true but it looks like the price will continue to be stuck not far from $20k and it looks like it will continue like that waiting for the bull market to arrive, sometimes history is never the same is it

I understand people will always look at 2018 and fear that it could always get worse, but I do not believe that it will be the case this time around at all. We already found the bottom, 17.6k was the bottom this time around and even with fed increase and crashes and problems we haven't reached back there even though we were close.

This means that unless some whale starts to sell thousands of bitcoins all at the same time, the price will not go there. A lot of people bought it when it was much higher, and the ones who said enough is enough ended up selling and getting out, I doubt that it would go any worse than it is right now.

yes I'm also sure a lot of people selling their Bitcoins hit the bottom $20k and the whales always catch it below it, when it's under $20k it always comes back above $20k when the whales take it, I guess it's a matter of time to see the market recover soon, events 2018 not the same as 2014 nor 2022 is never the same as 2018 please pay attention to the charts

I'm still leaning towards the market's four-year cycle argument, maybe things won't be exactly the same year after year but to expect a bull season earlier than 2025 is unlikely. The market has companies participating, some countries there is no guarantee that the market will not have a 4-year cycle.
I don't know what you saw on the chart, but just looking at the current world situation, it's unlikely a bull run will come any time soon, possibly even worse in 2023 when the Fed says they There's no reason to stop or slow down rate hikes. I still fear that the bear cycle will last more than 4 years if the war doesn't end and inflation doesn't cool down.

The percentage level of decline in Bitcoin has always been different in the time period you mentioned and yes it is also the rate of increase in every four years because Bitcoin is not at the same ATH in every four years. That's the evidence that many people have seen by now and the possibility for a major upgrade cycle over the course of every four years, I think will still be there and happening in Bitcoin.

But as the cycle continues the percentage will not be the same obviously. The rate of increase might be somewhat lessen as compare to the previous run. It's because the price is really very high or going to a level that not everyone can invest a lot and only the whales will have the money to invest huge amount. In any case though, we average joe can be part of the next bull run, just invest small and what we can afford in this bear market. And maybe in the next bull run, the price will be in the 6 digit

2023 might be worst and the actual start of the bull run could be 2024, right after the bitcoin halving. So if everything stays as it should be to be, then the 4 year cycle will continue.

Well that's what we see in 2020, the pandemic really bring the worst in everyone and yet after the halving the market recovered and slowly goes into a massive bull run. So I'm expecting that even with the recession 2024 might be year that we will see all market bouncing back.

My personal view is that 2024 will be a better year for the world economy, regardless of whether the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, the Fed rate hikes can be paused or significantly reduced for the economy to grow.
Since the United States will enter the presidential election in 2024, they will certainly have to find ways to make the election go smoothly without any obstacles. So we are right to expect a better market in 2024.

Whales are rich people for a reason. It's clear that if you are investing when it is at the bottom then even if it goes down a little bit more, it can't go down too much more and the result will be a big profit when it recovers. This doesn't mean that you should be investing whenever you want, of course make your own deductions on when to invest, but buying it when it's so much lower than it used to be means it should be a good profit.

I mean we are nearly 3x away from the ATH and that's a good thing, we should definitely look into it. That means having some sort of profit already calculated in with the ATH will make it easier in the minds as well.

the percentages are not completely the same if we look back at the charts and i'm worried in case of the next 4 year cycle it won't even touch above $100k because i know people will throw it down before that price because of the same repeating moments and all the whales taking advantage of us all caught up in that cyclical mind

It's because that's the usual cycle for most economies, it won't be staying at the lowest forever but there will be economies that will surely be left behind if their local government does nothing. Just like what we've seen in countries like Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Argentina. Sure, the other economies will recover, those that have a recovery plan and have it on execution.

Thus, halving is gonna happen for bitcoin at that year. That's why the crypto market will become better by that time.

Percentage may of course change, which it has every time we have gone up, but the idea that it will be bigger than the last ATH will stay, we do not drop too much further anymore, we do not stay at ATH anymore, that's what the cycle means.

Last cycle we went from under 1k to over 20k and dropped to 3k and never seen under 1k again, this cycle we managed to go over 20k ,and seen it reach 68k and drop to around 18k at lowest and never seen under 10k again. Next time around I guarantee it will be over 68k, and it is going to be something like "never see under 40k again" or maybe 50k who knows. That's how it progresses, so it gives ease of mind to me for sure.

yes that's why below $20k is a really cheap price for bitcoin price, seeing when below that we are pushed back above $20k, it gives a signal that the price will continue to be not far from $20k, not sure it will touch $10k, so now I'm just waiting to see the market recover, I'm sure it won't take long to see a high price 2x the current price

I think it will not be good for the market at the end of the month and obviously we might be in the red candle again. Nevertheless, this is to be expected in a long and bearish market. Below $20k is really a cheap price. This is where we stand in 2017, ATH at that time.

And having a correcting to it's previous ATH has never been seen in bitcoin young market. But if there is some consolation, it's the price is very cheap and at a discount and this could be take advantage by many bitcoin holders.

Well, before the pandemic bitcoin was trading at around 6000$ but due to the pandemic crisis, it dumped to 4000$. I don't think we may see another pandemic like event in next 1-2 years. This means that bitcoin may not dump to the 5000-10,000$ level. Who knows around 17000$ might become the ultimate bottom for this bear market.
Whatever the case, i wish we see the bottom this year and move upwards from 2023 onwards. Let's see how things develop this time around.

History dont repeat but it rhymes, the one common point for over decade now is the volatility of events is rising.     I m not sure what could be worse then a pandemic to create a sell and surprise low but seems like we should expect the unexpected to occur on each cycle as described.   My take for extreme low was not this 20k area, I never really counted 20k as more then a flat zero type number which is just my take; 2019 peaks was the most relevant area I saw the absolute boundary.   If we exceeded that then its into the 10k area we circled around for so long, I suggest that would surprise many and Ive no idea how long that price lasts maybe only hours.

not many well-known companies or people at that time invested in bitcoin so it was easy to fall at unwanted prices, we see today not a few famous companies or famous people put their money and I'm sure they will not let that happen, so that's what i'm saying why history can change over time because if we look at bitcoin's past it hasn't had anyone even the richest people hate it , so this is why there is a difference of opinion about this cycle, not sure we'll see $10k in either future

I don't think in future we are not going to see that much dumping of bitcoin. Yes it's true that now bitcoin can't make a good sustainable resistance zone around this situation so I also think that in future we were having to see Bitcoin is dumping but It could be create a resistance after so I don't think bitcoin is going to that much farther low

that's why i said never going to touch $10k, i think the current price is way more than what people want

the middle of last year also we experienced a fall in the price of bitcoin and it was exactly the same as the middle of this year

3 years more from the pandemic will surely a great year, remember that the world is still suffering in the last worldwide pandemic we had and this really break every countries economy and like mine? yours will also be expecting years of recovery .
so with all those mentioned from yours to mine? we will take this a lesson and learning from what had happened to last 2020 and the cycle of bitcoin will turn this market to bull year again.



__________________________________________

The Poll is completely saying it all, and it is YES..

Cycles have been proven to happen and now we are entering the third 4 year cycle, and until now this is still true, the price has dropped more than 60% compared to ATH that has happened in 2021, but the good thing is that we are soon entering a new era so that soon will see prices skyrocket again.

What makes you so sure that prices will skyrocket again in the new era? If you count the cycle every 4 years since Bitcoin was introduced, then this is the fourth cycle that has occurred, but if now is the beginning of a big pump, then the calculation is still very long and you still have to be more patient to see the price skyrocket.

Many say that the 4 -year trend is repeated again, for me this is normal because when Bitcoin reaches the peak, there will be profit taking from investors who make prices corrected, and now the position is very cheap so the time to buy before skyrocketing again.

I know about inflation and rising interest rates, but bitcoin has kept its price above $19k and that hasn't caused bitcoin to fall any lower exactly at $10k which is of course where people expect bitcoin to fall at that price to buy it, just waiting for time to make the market is recovering and I believe everything will recover quickly without having to wait for the next 4 years, that's what I'm thinking at the moment, this cycle doesn't seem to have any effect anymore because it's easy for everyone to predict and it will never be good in the end, once again we are all just speculating here

The people who have to dump BTC will tend to do it at the point of its sharpest decline, I think we already saw that occur this year.   Gradual drift down isnt going to flush out as many people, its more of a choice then being forced by leverage or mis-speculation if anything its an opportunity to accumulate though thats only clear in retrospect.   Due to previous cycles and how we've repeated this process I can say a number of times not through skill or any great judgement I managed to save up a bit of the BTC during this unpopular lulls when nobody thinks it will ever do much again and yet we keep seeing a full range from zero velocity to extreme gains.  

That is it, bitcoin is cyclical, it moves in the bull direction and also move in the bear direction. At every direction experts know where it is heading  and when it is close to the destination, there will be massive buying or massive selling. It is at the bottom region and what is happening is accumulation while some people are spreading fud to enable it remain in the accumulation region for so long and after they have accumulated, they will engineer some bull run news to drive the market up once again.

Becoming the most awaited 4-year cycle that occurs in Bitcoin, where Bitcoin every 4 years there will be a Bitcoin halving, this can make
the Bitcoin pump very high and make the price of Bitcoin reach new ATH. That's why people who are experienced in the crypto world,
never doubted the future of Bitcoin, even though the price of Bitcoin in this year's bear market has not been able to recover. Because
for experienced people they know Bitcoin will recover when Bitcoin halving happens, meaning that in 2024/2025 it is likely that the price of
Bitcoin will pump very high. Therefore it should be a bear market now where the price of Bitcoin is already at a low price, be the right time
to collect as much Bitcoin as possible and we are holding until the Bitcoin halving occurs. So when the Bitcoin halving happens we already
have enough Bitcoins, which we will make a big profit when we sell it.

this could have happened because of inflation and also rising interest rates or indeed they sold it only to buy it again under cheaper right at $10k to double their bitcoin amount, but I'm not sure that the price of bitcoin is $10k because I think $20k is a low price and it's already down more than 50% from ATH , so bitcoin is holding on to that price and it's likely we'll look once more to try a countercurrent recovery when people have dumped their bitcoins a lot and hope they buy it expensive later because it's been selling cheap, no have to wait near the bitcoin halving or wait 4 years to go bullish because at any time bitcoin can recover quickly and bullish

Well analysis you did and that is how it will work out. But one thing we have always known in crypto is that from one halving to another halving, in-between use to be some bull runs. Even if not large or big bull run but there will be a good number of them. But in this cycle, it seems that it only happened once and so and the other in-between bull runs did not happen and that is why it seems that we have remained in this bear for a long time.
Waiting for another halving in order to have a bull run is the sure plan for majority bitcoin investors.

We cannot wait for a cycle in every 4 years or wait for ATH to return. Because we will spend a wonderful time to buy. If the bull market is going on, of course our doubts in investing will be higher than the bear market conditions. If he is a professional investor, of course he is happy with a bear market because he gets the opportunity for early stage investments at low prices.

It is not a policy but that's the cycle and pattern that everyone has seen for the past years. And that's why we're all ended up with the idea that it's a cycle every halving. There is the idea and backed-up proof that it's what's happening every halving and called a cycle because every 4 years halving comes. As everyone is entitled to their opinions and the same as you but that's the most common opinion that you'll have about the cycle. A bull run comes, a bear market comes and after the halving, a bull run comes again and so on, etc.

yes that's why i said the 4 year cycle doesn't seem to work anymore because it's predictable and people will dump their BTC before going to the next ATH later, the bitcoin market could recover anytime and no longer celebrate it every 4 years, people can buy it and take advantage This bearish market opportunity, because we will never know next year will be a strong bullish market or not, always buy little by little during this bear market, opportunity will not come twice so don't miss the train

https://i.imgur.com/lCfBUPF.png

people always expect the price to be under $15k or hit the $10k floor, but why am I always saying that seems difficult to do considering the price will always be close to the $20k mark, look since yesterday's drop to the $18k floor in a short period of time bitcoin price it's back to near $20k today and it keeps repeating itself every time, whether people will just see it as a coincidence or it's a sign that the $20k price is among the cheapest and will never go below $15k, I hope people didn't miss an opportunity and have taken the opportunity to invest now before the market recovers and won't see below $20k again next year

Bitcoin price fell yesterday because the CPI did not meet expectations but then quickly increased again, like the market is killing long and short.
It can be seen that the 19k-20k resistance area is very difficult to break but this is still not enough to confirm your argument that bitcoin's 4-year cycle is gone. In November we will still face a Fed rate hike, I don't know if bitcoin will hold $19k as it is. When bitcoin crosses $30k and starts a new strong growth, you can confirm your thinking is right, currently although not falling further, bitcoin has also lost 70% of its value. And the market is still not getting better so nothing can be said here.

I'm not disliking the 4 year cycle belief, let alone going against it and arguing with anyone here, just sharing my thoughts that we no longer need to follow the old fashioned way and have to wait 4 years to get another ATH, so I'm just saying that anytime bitcoin can get ATH others without having to wait for the next 4 years around 2025 later, it could happen in 2024 or 2023 this is just speculation because the difference in the number of bitcoin users then and now is very much different, I also reiterate that the bitcoin price will likely continue to maintain at the price of $19k - $20k

This right here is one of the major reasons Bitcoin succeeded in its early days, we were united and knew very well which assets to back but today the story is different because we have become selfish by pushing for personal projects to flourish which has spread all the crypto value to altcoins out there....

If we look at the current market value and say all these shitcoins be burned, bitcoins true value will be revealed but unfortunately its all about choice and not force!

The competition for bitcoin to succeed is a steep climb, imagine it has to compete with over 21,000+ other coins as compared to a few thousands back then  :'(


With so many other cryptocurrencies, the next ATH ain't happening any time soon unless we burn all those shitcoins to the ground!

Great analogy I will use for Bitcoin here is how to make tomato grow bigger....to get bigger tomato fruit you have to be pruning dead or over grown branches from the plant, which allows for concentrated growth! So same contempt we need all dead coins erased from history and our beloved bitcoin will be on track for its next ATH !!!

Sharing thought is okay, no problem at all. Everyone is free to express their ideas or opinions.  ;)

Well, waiting 4 years cycle may be an old way but it is actually happening every 4 years. Sure, we can't predict the exact time that BTC to create its ATH. However, based on the price history, it always happened after BTC halving. You have described it in your previous thread, haven't you?

I'm not against your thought, but I don't see a sign that Bitcoin has a chance to get a new ATH in 2023. It should be after BTC halving in 2024 at least. Even if we have a bigger number of BTC users, we need something big to trigger the next ATH. I only see BTC halving that is possible to trigger a significant move in BTC price.

In the next few months, I also think BTC price in the sideways phase. If there is a negative issue it may drop to $17k - $18k, and probably move to $21k - $22k if there are positive issues. There will be no significant move at the end of this year and early of next year.

However, there is the bitcoin block halving that happens every 4 years and so far this is the catalyst for the bull run. So if there is something that can push the price to an all time level again, it will be the halving in 2024.

I don't think that next year we will have a bull run or something, again, most likely after March or what ever the date of the halving, we will slowly see a increased in price and then it will be catapulted in 2025 massive run. And if that happens then bitcoin at 6 digit figure.

I agree with you that compared to previous years, the number of investors participating in the market has changed significantly and is better than it is now. The most recent cycle was 2017, we didn't have countries, companies investing in bitcoin, adoption wasn't as widely accepted as it is now. It can be said that investing in bitcoin today is a lot safer than it was years ago. But in my opinion just looking at how bitcoin is falling means bitcoin is still volatile, it can still drop 20%-30% in a few hours. After hitting ATH last year, it has also been falling continuously so far, it can be said that everything is repeating. This shows that bitcoin is still the same, nothing has changed significantly from when it was little known.

that's why people always want to buy shitcoins with their BTC, while we also know that there are so many shitcoins circulating in the market and they are also being thrown away to get BTC, for example like LUNA after a problem with LUNA before also made the price of BTC plummet, this is why i never want to buy shitcoin with my bitcoin except with other cold money

I think it's a reasonable analogy, I also expect people to leave shitcoin so that Bitcoin stays on track to reach the next ATH without having to wait for the next 4 years, thanks for sharing your thoughts

https://i.postimg.cc/VNCbkLjP/tomato.jpg
Burning all the shitcoins I think is still not enough, because shitcoins keep appearing and we can't even control them. About the analogy you describe, I agree and makes sense, there must be pruning to make the tomatoes bigger and only concentrate on growing the fruit. Just as bitcoin needs to cut shitcoins or altcoins that are worthless and don't have any contribution to the market. so that dead shitcoins don't cause bitcoin to be hampered. and the most important thing is fertilizer to keep getting good nutrition, as in bitcoin which requires support from many parties such as growing adoption and other projects that support bitcoin's performance.


https://i.postimg.cc/g2vWzCnB/luna.jpg
Bitcoin is still very valuable compared to shitcoins. People who are willing to throw bitcoins for shitcoins certainly have no plans for their future. They are only interested in the temporary hype. even though Bitcoin is more promising in the future even though the bitcoin price is currently crashing due to many factors. LUNA crashes are only a small part of shitcoin events that also have a big impact on bitcoin. even though LUNA had entered the list of the top 10 altcoins, but in the end LUNA became a shitcoin and is no longer valuable for now, the developer alone is a fugitive from the police. Shitcoin can make a person rich in an instant, but also bankrupt overnight. Don't drop all your eggs in a fragile shitcoin basket, rather use a sturdier bitcoin basket instead.

yes that's why shitcoin is always considered prima donna, people have to leave it because holding bitcoin is the most promising investment compared to shitcoin, people are too eager to get rich quick on the contrary become poor faster because they buy shitcoin, hoping they can learn from LUNA that this is a promising project doesn't always have a low CMC rank even the top 10 in CMC can be shitcoin, better go take old bitcoins and altcoins because it's better

why wait 4 years

If you want to take Bitcoin as an investment in the long term, I think it is the right thing as an option. But when it comes to choosing old altcoins as an additional option other than Bitcoin, I think everyone also needs to research again at this time because there are also many altcoins that have not been able to get good price movements for a long time or in other words have begun to lose interest in the market.

So it still needs more research even if only a little, because the choice of altcoins is a very risky choice if it is for the long term and I exclude this if someone chooses it (old altcoins) only for the short term.

Older altcoins are usually more likely to have many communities not only full of investors, many communities will help introduce those old altcoins to new people obviously that is more interesting than altcoin projects full of investors who only focus on profits and losses, when entering a bear market they are a lot dumping their altcoins even away from the ATH price, people need to research whatever crypto they want to invest in as the market hasn't really recovered at the moment

i want to remind you that Luna is not only a potential coin in 2021 but also an old coin developed since 2018, it is an old altcoin. in addition to Eth, investing in altcoin, i think their risks are almost the same, because even the top currency has a large community like Luna and the top capitalization can collapse, so anything can happen to altcoin.

meanwhile, new altcoins are not really bad, you will hear about the recent project Aptos. it is attracting attention in the market after the Mainnet was successful, listed on a series of top exchanges and it is helping many people make big profits from it

3 years Luna is not called an old altcoin, at least an altcoin project that has existed for more than 5 years is already called an old altcoin

usually fomo will be everywhere and even when a project releases we don't know in the future what makes it even more unattractive and see various shortcomings for example like Solana always having problems with the network

Regardless of the current market conditions, and what is clear is that everyone who wants to introduce any altcoin to others who don't know about it must definitely explain everything that is already in a particular altcoin. Likewise with the collaborations that have been built by product owners or altcoin founders because that is the main thing that will be considered by people who want to know altcoins more fully.

I personally don't see Luna as an old altcoin even though it was popular before the big problem came to Luna, and yes Luna is not an old altcoin and also not the best altcoin for everyone so forgetting it in my opinion is much better and replacing it with another altcoin that has more potential inside markets like Ethereum, for example. Which has been proven for a long time in the crypto space.

Ethereum is also more reasonable and there are even some other old altcoins that can be used as investments, because old altcoins that have been very tested through this 4 year cycle stage for the umpteenth time of course they are more resilient than new altcoins born 1 or 3 years ago.

Do you mean we don't need a 4 year cycle anymore, next year??

Of course it will be good news if the cycle disappears, because everyone will certainly see all prices will continue to rise, right, then what is the prediction for the ATH movement to occur, whether this year or the following year.

The years mentioned fit perfectly into the cycle that has occurred in that year, and everything that is said looks very positive!!

people feel the 4 year cycle is good, look when people know the price goes up and down on the bitcoin price of course they are ready to throw away when to buy it, so it's easy to guess and will continue to take victims for beginners who don't know it when they come buy then old traders sell it, let's see again the 4 year cycle this time is different because many famous companies and famous people have invested in bitcoin so don't expect it to make history repeat itself again and again, whenever bitcoin will go to another new ATH without having to wait 4 years, it could be next year or the following year

Many people are predicting bitcoin will only hit new ATHs after the halving takes place, only you are pretty positive saying that bitcoin's 4 year cycle is over. I will not dare to tell you if the 4-year cycle will repeat or not but I can say that the price of bitcoin next year will also be very difficult to rise again because the world situation is still very unstable, the war continues and the crisis does not end soon, the market will not be able to recover.
The market is almost strongly influenced by the Fed's interest rates, and the Fed announced in 2023 it is ready to raise interest rates to new highs until inflation is really under control. So I think in 2023 we will really bottom and in 2024 the market could start to recover.

I still believe that bitcoin's ATH cycle remains once every 4 years. Now we can see in this year the market is too weak like in 2018 after ATH 2017 and tends to be very stable it's very boring. So the speculation circulating in the media is very difficult to follow because the market is also difficult to predict.

your account is registered in 2017 which is a 4 year cycle year in stage 2, did you look before also in a 4 year cycle first stage in 2013, look at each history and look at the year 2021 yesterday, pay attention to the charts and every moment is not always the same

yes it is common after halving because of the reduction in the number of block rewards which means the supply of bitcoin is getting harder and less to print, but I say that we don't have to wait 4 years to get new ATH it all depends on the demand from big money holders in the future, I appreciate all the thoughts of friends here

that's why I say it's hard to predict where the market is going actually, considering that 2021 yesterday didn't last long the bulls there all fell in the middle of the year, so whether it's called a bullish year, I don't think so

If we notice that the 4 -year trend has occurred 2 times, namely skyrocketing prices in 2013 and 2017 then the market drops occurred in 2014 and 2018, now we enter the third period, namely 2021 prices skyrocketing and 2022 prices drop again, but this is a good signal to buy more.

we need a lot of smart people like you, the cycle doesn't really matter, we have to realize that this is the right moment to buy a lot because we are already below the lowest price, when the train runs then everyone will be left behind

Actually if you want to see history, look at where it started, Did you read my thread before this thread was created, read here " Bitcoin Prediction 2020 - 2021 " (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5043315) and you will find out I've been discussing that since last 2018

Even if there are  different ways this year? yet we can see that  the year is still holding and the market still shows high future, yes the ATL this year maybe different from this one but look at how much it maintain the value the whole year.

and also ATH is what we are looking and seems to be coming in the next coming year at least 3 years from now.

If you look at the history of bitcoin ATH in 2014 and 2017 it usually happened and even lasted until November or December, but the bull market in 2021 was just the opposite in September it was over. It's a shame but that's the way it is, we have to accept it. But so far bitcoin is going to get better despite the controversy out there.

I've said before history is never the same even though it keeps repeating itself but not always on time, so I also know a lot right now the crisis is everywhere and inflation as well as rising interest rates even the russia war has an effect on the bitcoin price too, but I think bitcoin is the way out of it all it's just that a lot of people don't realize that

the 4 year cycle has happened 3 times and it's on time, it's just that the 2021 meeting didn't really reach the real target, so just saying each cycle has its own story sometimes not everything has to be the same as the previous history that's why I feel we don't have to wait 4 years to see other new ATH

Sorry for noob  question mate , but what is the target in 2021 meeting because knowing what happened that year?it is obvious that we reached another ATH and that is truly huge.

but just now that i heard that there is not meeting that time.

I'm not sure what is that Unusual this year? but at least there is best happening in the end of this year.

In addition to Ethereum as an altcoin that has been proven to be strong in the market and has also been in the market for a very long time, I see BNB and Dogecoin are also included in the old altcoins that can be chosen for investment, but if possible, Dogecoin should only be invested in the short term because apart from frequent experienced an increase in price when Bitcoin began to increase its price in the market or during the four-year cycle, Dogecoin is also still very vulnerable to a decline in the market even though Dogecoin is included in the altcoin that has been super long in the crypto space.

People who are often tempted by new projects and see greater profit opportunities from new projects are those who do not do in-depth research. So that they immediately make a decision to enter into the new project without considering the risks which are also far greater than the profit opportunities that are seen or offered by the new project. I personally prefer to ignore it if the project development is still very little and the cooperation relationship is still very lacking, because it is the basic foundation of the project to be able to stay strong in the crypto space and also be able to make new project products develop with more people who like it.

not hitting $100k is a flop, but $69k isn't any worse either so just saying that we're not really touching actual ATH is in my view not the same as a lot of people in this thread think

i don't want to mention much about old altcoins but all will be able to find out which ones are old altcoins and which are new altcoins, so people can choose to invest there not sure on dogecoin but he is also in the top 10

Happens in all markets that some big funds will only take a trade and/or hold an asset when its moving above its 200 day average.  BTC has been below that measure for most of this year hence some will avoid this asset as valid till thats true, its some self confirmation that we lose momentum at that point things slow down to more certain levels like right now.

https://i.imgur.com/djagTwm.png
  Dont think I have to zoom out to 4 year that often, just observing 50 days is probably enough to give me a very good hint how positive we are so thats how I view BTC for now.  We reject back below 50 day and BTC isnt that strong for now, it is becoming very flat though which allows for a base to break from ?  The gradient on the MA itself is not as negative, some ironic positive perhaps.

it's clear and easy to understand we need analysis like this here, everyone has their own analysis and even speculates according to their experience during their life in crypto, especially analyzing the price of bitcoin it's really not ready to recover but I believe bitcoin is the answer to what is happening with economic problems out there, it's just that we still need time for them to come here invest in bitcoin without any more shitcoins

the price will still hold on to the $19k price and the $20k is still flat

If I take it personally, I think it happened by chance because at any given moment the big investors as well as the owners of well-known companies were making huge purchases. So it gives a lot of increasing effect on Bitcoin and that is a very reasonable thing in my opinion than having to accuse a group of people or organizations of trying to manipulate the price of Bitcoin. Because without an increase in the number of purchases in the market, it is clear that it will be difficult to increase the price of Bitcoin itself at any given time.

maybe you watch too much youtube about secret organizations, but whatever it is the price of bitcoin is usually due to limited supply so people buy it too sometimes they come because of fomo

as I said this 4 year cycle has happened 3 times, every cycle we have big investors, for example in yesterday's cycle we have many big companies and even big investors, rich people enter the crypto world and invest in bitcoin, so what will it be? the same as the previous cycle, I don't think so, there will be a difference when this bearish is different from the previous bearish

Now Bitcoin has increased by 4 percent and Ethereum has increased by 10 percent in the market. This indicates that Ethereum is still the altcoin that closely follows Bitcoin's movement in the market and is also the altcoin that follows a four-year cycle for greater improvement.

https://i.imgur.com/9ztSJmw.jpg

And if you look at the Bitcoin price cycle at the moment, I see the price level is also not too far from the Bitcoin price at the end of 2017 (even though at that time it was called ATH for Bitcoin), but for now I think this is the lowest price for Bitcoin. Bitcoin despite a lot of speculation from people who say that the decline in Bitcoin will continue again this year.

https://i.imgur.com/tkQgUSa.png

bitcoin for some time is only playing at $19k and $20k as I said before, people don't notice that every cycle there is always a difference and it's never the same, because of market conditions and investors who invest, look at one of them is Elon musk although I don't like it but in the third cycle year before 2021 how many big companies invest in bitcoin as well as rich people or famous artists even state leaders, it's different from the previous cycle where bitcoin has no one and the price falls more sharply, that's why I say again this is all the economic problems that exist today the solution is bitcoin and i believe that bitcoin will recover faster than people imagine

Purchases made wont really be that focusing on those fewer entities.Yes, they might that bring up some significant effect on price movement but having manipulative actions cant really be done easily considering

on how huge the cap is then it would really be that impossible on giving huge price movement.Speaking about cycles then it cant really be avoided for people to say that there would be some price increase specially

on halving times but well its not always been assured since no one could precisely predict on what would be the things could happen in future.It all matters with recognition and adoption
or simply with the community demand plus those other factors which would affect the market entirely.

I'm not sure if the 4-year cycle repeats itself, but there are many predictions about it because it has simply happened 3 times in the past as you mentioned. But I agree with you one thing is that they will not be the same because simply bitcoin and the market are growing so there will be differences. For example, this year we have many companies and countries in the game, it is very unlikely that bitcoin will fall further, I think they will not let that happen because it will also cause them to crash. Anyway it's all just speculation and everyone's opinion is different, let time tell us.

Amazing, because today the price rises more than 6% and the price returns to the level of $ 20k, I hope this is the beginning of the bull run so that the long wait for almost a year will occur, the last time I bought Bitcoin when the price is around $ 28k and has never sold Bitcoin Because it will automatically lose money, and I hope this year the price can reach at least $ 30k.

It is easy to impress you :)

We have one day of growth after stagnation, or the price basically has returned to where it was 2 months ago, and already "bull run" or "market has changed direction" posts popped up. I think people has started to early to celebrate. Just wait till next week and we would drop back to 19k.

As to 4 year cycle - I think this is just a coincidence that every 4 years Bitcoin price goes significantly. If this was really a 4 year cycle, then why Bitcoin heavy price drops did not happen exactly on fourth year, exactly same time ?

yes that is the purpose of this thread, having discussions by members in this forum sharing any experiences about analyzing and speculating on bitcoin prices in the future, there has never been a similarity in history in each cycle, so it is necessary to explore whether this cycle will be implemented or the price will recover faster than usual

yes but i'm not sure, let time will answer all the questions people have in this thread, hopefully bitcoin and crypto prices recover faster than usual

Then, will the four-year cycle happen again for the fourth time in Bitcoin? Because if there is a bearish difference that occurs this year, there will also be a difference in the amount of increase that can occur in Bitcoin even though it has not been four years when calculated from the year the price decreased.

For now I'm starting to believe that the increase in Bitcoin will occur in a small size, because having more buyers in the near future for Bitcoin is very difficult, especially now that the world economy is not in a good condition, so investors and companies Those who already like Bitcoin will also make as much consideration as possible when buying in bearish conditions although such conditions are always better to make a purchase.

as you can see from the results of the poll in this thread, almost on average they say the 4 year cycle will still work as usual, it's just that people need to be careful for the next cycle of course they will compete in throwing away and taking profits in 2025 because it's easy to guess, so there are no surprises, but I hope bitcoin will surprise everyone in the near future, talking about economic problems that occur in this world the answer is only one, namely bitcoin, that's why bitcoin was created to solve that problem

Cycle not circle. Also I think it wasn't just a mere speculation but they have evidence that it can happen. If it can happen in the past then why not this time? But like you I too believe that btc can find a way to increase even if it's not that big enough but it's already fine for some of us to sell because waiting for the 4 year cycle only to see a real growth seems a long wait already.

Crypto investors? What about you, or me. I am sure you also invest in crypto but we are still here. We didn't leave the market. We are continuously buying and hodling but that didn't made any big changes. What you really mean there is if the newbies in enter the crypto market or when the crypto adoption increases. Add in if those who quit last time came back. That would greatly help the price rise.

After the 2021 bull market, many people predict that 2022 will still continue to hit a new ATH. There were even predictions that said it would hit $200k.

https://tinypic.host/images/2022/10/26/Screenshot_55.png
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/02/07/bitcoin-will-reach-200k-in-second-half-of-2022-fsinsight-says/

But in reality it was all wrong and instead bitcoin is down more than 70% since its high of $69k.

https://tinypic.host/images/2022/10/26/Screenshot_56.png
Source: https://cryptowat.ch/charts/BINANCE:BTC-USDT

Seeing what is happening now, it is necessary to understand that the halving cycle every four years is the main reference to determine the next highest bitcoin price and after that it is certain that bitcoin will make a big correction.

a very easy to read 4 year cycle, as I said in this thread also bitcoin no longer surprises us all, look people think this is a bear market because of the russian war, inflation, rising interest rates, crisis everywhere, while bitcoin is actually is the answer to it all

we are all just waiting for that cycle to determine when we will all benefit and lose, all speculating the same so let's see in the next year I think we recover faster

Actually, not only that Bitcoin can be used as an answer for investment, but Bitcoin has always been more suitable as an investment to combat all existing problems. That's why until now Bitcoin still survives and is liked by many people to solve every problem through the profits that can be obtained through Bitcoin

If recovery can occur more quickly, it means that the once in 4 year cycle doesn't last forever, right? Because it is still very early to get to 4 more years which corresponds to the cycle that occurred last year, after all, the decline that occurred in Bitcoin has not yet reached a year.

bitcoin price weakened for a moment when it went through the pandemic and also coincided with the bitcoin halving in 2020 then, what we saw at that time the bitcoin price recovered more quickly, I think even now the bad economic situation will not stop bitcoin being the most recommended investment and also profitable

I say no need to wait 4 years to be bullish, because we don't need to repeat a cycle that has already started to break

Your concerns may require attention and should make you a better decision maker. The world economy is currently not doing well considering the war between Russia and Ukraine has made the economy of many countries into chaos. Inflation is rising and there are even rumors of an impending recession next year.

I also haven't found a reason why ATH will repeat itself if economic conditions get worse, but who knows the future? ATH has push a lot of demand, probably because many traders take advantage of market conditions to make a profit. But of course you should not be greedy about all the possibilities.

This is the first time bitcoin has faced its biggest challenge, but let's not forget bitcoin was born out of the 2008 crisis. though things are being hit by the economic crisis, meaning bitcoin has yet to prove itself as an inflation hedge as it was designed to be. But in the long run that may be true, where fiat and bitcoin fall equally but over time only bitcoin rises back and fiat does not.

Probable means also uncertain and it is also speculation. History may or may not repeat itself, because each time will have different developments. In the last 3 bitcoin cycles, bitcoin has never experienced a crisis like it is now, this is the first time. In the cycles before bitcoin wasn't as widely accepted or popular as it is today...Overall, there's a lot going on that history hasn't experienced, so it's impossible to be certain that history will repeat itself. It's all just speculation.

this is an important point that that is the reason why bitcoin was created in 2008 because to overcome this problem in the future, I think people can invest in bitcoin during an economic crisis like this to get a hedge and also keep their money here

2013 maybe not many investors or famous rich people invest there
2017 may only be a few investors and the richest people invest
2021 how many famous companies, countries that legalize bitcoin, some country leaders, richest people in the world and also popular artists even anyone you may see on social media they invest in crypto as well in this bitcoin

That's why I always say there will be changes from each cycle, so do you think it will be the same too  ;D

that's why people should be aware of it that bitcoin was created to solve every economic problem that is happening in the world today and even since the last pandemic bitcoin still comes out to be a profitable investment


how many news about china ban bitcoin mining, almost every time when the market is bearish the news always appears everywhere and it is indeed boring news to hear, bitcoin is a good investment for now

I feel like markets of cryptocurrencies still didn't reach their peak audience. Bitcoin can't compete with regular stocks. I am still getting questions from older people about how to get Bitcoin for themselves... I think these are clearly red flag that blocks Bitcoin from breaking halving cycle. Looks like this time we won't be able to break again. Its gonna be like 2018. But I think in long run, maybe one cycle after this one, we may break and go moon quicker.

Bitcoin has never lost in the long run. This is how it will go. Bitcoin has left behind many negativities, not just the pandemic.
I don't look at the news from China anymore. Even if it does affect Bitcoin, it may affect it for a short time.


Yes, I agree. Older people's approach to bitcoin is still not positive. They continue with the old mindset. It is very difficult to change this. But after a while this will change by itself. Bitcoin has never been wrong. Bitcoin is moving towards the goal with the right steps. Hopefully this time will be short and we'll see bitcoin hit the target.

It has been established by the bitcoin market history.  Great correction happened 1st after the Bitcoin ATH of 2013 and second after the Bitcoin ATH of 2017.  Only a newbie will think that ATH will continue in 2022.


If we fully zoom out the Bitcoin price chart, we can say that Bitcoin is still in the green part.  It is still in an upward trend even though there is a huge correction after the ATH of 2021.



It will only need good results of those who engage in the Bitcoin market.  Older people are somehow reserved when it comes to investing in an "unproven" market.  But once the result is very good, we can see them flocking in to invest in Bitcoin.

This is how the market makers and whales will create the hype but in reality, they have some other plans, and we are 70 to 80% down when they were saying that we would be at 200K.
Previously I was also excited to hear such news, but now I have learned the lesson of not reacting to such news and speculation which the social media and crypto media houses create and fool the retail investors.

That's only part of the advantages that Bitcoin already has, so it can solve some of the problems you said. But basically I personally have considered Bitcoin as a valuable asset and also has value in the eyes of the community so it is not surprising that every year there are always additional enthusiasts for Bitcoin which they will also explore other cryptocurrencies as long as it can be very good to have as in Bitcoin example.

Now I've realized that ATH won't run all year round and from all that of course there is a hype plan that the whales made to manipulate the market so that their plan runs smoothly, but from all that is speculated it's also not 100% true anyway it's been 4 years bitcoin cycles have historically been the same in the sense that bitcoin will continue to experience this cycle over and over again.
Social media is often used for propaganda about the issue of market prices, there are those who continue to do FUD there is also a positive trend against FUD but from that of course we are aiming for a whale that can control all of this, therefore I believe don't believe that whales have little influence in the bitcoin market.

That's why I said that the bitcoin market could have recovered faster without having to wait 4 years with the umpteenth cycle, because I believe there will be changes in each cycle and the current economic crisis can actually be overcome with bitcoin itself

that's why I keep repeating it every cycle will make the charts change every time, I still believe this cycle is still used as a measuring tool for profit of all crypto communities, but know that this cycle will feel different than before so be prepared for it

There has been a trend of 3 times every 4 years, namely prices skyrocketing in odd years and dropping in even years, this proves that it looks like bitcoin can be controlled by the community, of course they have very large capital so they can pump and dump, even according to reports the bitcoin stock is more than 60% owned by less than 1000 peoples.

Everyone I think will be very prepared for the cyclical changes that may occur before four years as has happened in the past. Because today there are still many people who take advantage of buying before bigger changes occur in the market, because they also hope for a once in four year cycle in the market.

Where's the report from? can you provide a little link here so that there is a little enlightenment about it, because the once four-year cycle in Bitcoin that has happened is something that has been remembered and is now starting to be discussed again to predict the next cycle that is still possible to happen again in Bitcoin.

where did you get that report ? less than 1000 people who owns 60% of bitcoin? does this means manipulated clearly?

meaning whales owns majority of the stocks?

so what more those thousands if not million of small holders?

but about the cycle is indeed for me is real and valid.

there will be slight adjustments about the next cycle. This 4th cycle is a cycle that all crypto users will look forward to, they all agree that this is the most appropriate moment to take profits. But we also have to be prepared when the cycle doesn't go the way we want it to. this is crypto and crypto can change at any time. currently only need to buy and hold bitcoins in preparation for cycle 4.

The 19 million BTC already available is still 2 million left for the next few years and of course it will be very rare from 2025 as the block reward will decrease very little and the price should at least pump over $100k , the current cycle is not predictable I'm sure it will come faster so this year is a chance to buy it

this year is the last year people will see bitcoin price below $20k, i hope people don't miss this  ;)

this year is the last year people will see bitcoin price below $20k, i hope people don't miss this, so no need to buy it in 2024 either because new ATH could happen sooner than we think

that's why people don't have to stick to a 4 year cycle because it's a crypto everything can change at any time, so I think this year is a good time to buy because I'm not sure I'll see a bitcoin price below $20k again next year  ;)

Bitcoin does have a unique price trend, the same price graphic trend occurs every 4 years, maybe this is the other side that makes users as presented so that the price of the following year can be easily predictable, the 4 -year trend has occurred 3 times so I think this is becoming Preparation for Circle next 4 years, namely 2025.

While it's hard to know for sure that bitcoin will have a four-year cycle or not, overall I think it's very likely that the cycle will repeat itself in the next four years. Today bitcoin has increased slightly from the previous week, meaning that going to the next ATH is still very speculative, because when compared to last year's ATH achievement, bitcoin must make a gradual recovery to approach that number, I don't think this month.

I always trust bitcoin to increase every 4 years and I believe that most of us has this trust and belief , we have seen this for how many times then why not now ? when we already seen tha 5 digits increase so the next will be 6 figures?

we will see this coming and happens , as few years more.

no one said this month but this year there are only 2 months left to buy it under $20k, I think bitcoin the past few months has always played not far from $20k and it has always been stable playing at that price while we also know it will take time to recover but we don't know next year if it will play again at $20k, I'm sure we won't see it again

The price has always revolved at $20k in these few months, indeed we have seen no significant movement even for the remaining two months of the current year I predict it will continue to repeat itself at $20k if there is a slight change at least $30k then in the following year So we can speculate the price will be better meaning we won't see the price spinning around $20k again.
But I think next year will not be good for bitcoin price even I see some observers say Bitcoin will have a less bright fate because there are rumors of a prolonged recession, but from all that we expect something different and opposite to Bitcoin.

I also hope so, when the price of bitcoin is able to touch $100k and above, the price below $20k will be a very cheap price. Now is the best opportunity. I also have some bitcoins that I still hold on to. Believe it or not, this is cryptocurrency, it can change at any time. especially when bitcoin is finished to be mined of course the price will be even crazier, but that will happen in 100 years and we too are gone.

If you were trying to catch the bottom going by nothing but the 4-year cycle timing of past bottoms, you would be buying here. I do think there are some things hanging over the market that will have to be dealt with, like the ETH2 coins being able to be withdrawn or the mtgox coins getting distributed. It seems that instead of creating the perfect storm like normal, the powers that be are trying to time these bearish events to occur closer to the peak of the next 4-year cycle.

For the end of this year bitcoin is likely to be around $20k-$30k and although the correction continues, it doesn't seem to be going down below that price, the ATH achievement process is likely to follow a four-year cycle, which is calculated based on previous ATH history, although it could shift or be right target.

We also have the same belief as predictions made by some observers, that bitcoin will experience a long correction until next year and if you look at the history of the previous year, it is likely that ATH will occur in a four-year cycle, although it cannot be confirmed with certainty. The correction will be in the range of $20k-$30k, although today slightly increased, we still expect there will be a good move generated by bitcoin until the end of the year.

let's see what happens next year, whether it's a recession, economic crisis and any problems that will come next year isn't bitcoin created to solve all those problems

the next bitcoin halving in 2024 and the block reward will decrease where of course the bitcoins that are printed are not as much as before and this is where the scarcity of bitcoins will lie, therefore I think the price of $17.5k is actually the cheapest price, let alone $20k that's why I think next year at least see bitcoin play above $ 20k  ;)

actually the mtgox problem I think it's clear that they are still delaying it and I don't think it will affect the price of crypto, especially the price of bitcoin for a long time, I think people will buy it when the price is still low at this time especially if it is distributed in the form of bitcoin people will not stupid to throw it at the current low price even though it is already profitable for them, of course those who get their bitcoins returned by mtgox will prefer to hold bitcoins in their wallets, this is why bitcoin prices seem to be recovering gradually

the cycle will work but we don't know it will take the same time or faster than before that's why i see bitcoin and crypto recover gradually

ATH is a 4 year cycle journey, but even though many say that we can't be sure, even though we hope that bitcoin will always create new history, we will wait in a few more years to see what happens in the future.
We can't predict it will be right or not, but the important thing is that we already have bitcoins in our wallets so that when ATH happens again, we are ready with the profits we get from the bitcoin HODL.

https://i.ibb.co/542Jt3S/Fgz-Xy-A2ac-AAi-Y4-Z.jpg
Illustration of bitcoin journey (maybe it will be like this) lol

Because Bitcoin is freedom, it should be a solution to future problems when there is a monetary crisis around the world due to the conflict, considering that in 2021 when Covid-19 increases, many think bitcoin will be destroyed because many people will withdraw and sell all assets for life they pay for their maintenance, but what happened to bitcoin actually created an ATH that we couldn't predict, so next year it might be like that even though we have been flooded with FUD about news of recession, inflation or the global crisis because bitcoin will remain to be more valuable in my opinion.

Right now bitcoin has been able to stay above $20k and I hope it will continue to rally until the end of the year. It is possible that the Bitcoin price could return to the last ATH price or approach it.
Had bought at a price of $ 18k and held until now, of course, already made a profit. I have also prepared spare money to buy when the price falls beyond my prediction.

Indications to increase more are there, but that won't happen immediately this year considering Bitcoin started to correct again today even though it wasn't a huge price correction. Which however will take more time to see an even bigger increase in Bitcoin. And personally I'm only optimistic that Bitcoin will end the year below $25K. The rest I'm still a little hesitant because I see the correction that still often occurs in Bitcoin.

if in the long term of course it will be an advantage for you to buy at $ 18k even though at this time it is also profitable for you because the price is above $ 20k, seeing later the price of bitcoin stays above $ 20k and no longer plays below it until the end of the year will be an important point for next year

this year is the last year where people can buy it cheap, not sure next year it will be under $20k again

And for this reason people call the cycle, but if you pay attention to the current market reaction, then it is likely to be bitcoin that will experience slow recovery until the end of the year and may be the cycle that will be occur change change from before.

It doesn't matter even though this year Bitcoin does not find the next ATH, because indeed we can wait until the recovery takes place gradually, now is the right time to collect bitcoin until it reaches the next ATH.
Although it is very difficult to make predictions when the market is experiencing correction as it is now, but if we are able to take advantage of market conditions like now, then when the next ATH takes place, we will experience maximum benefits.

For me it is not possible ATH this year because the bears have continued to hit until the last few months while reaching the end of the year in less than two months so for me it is impossible except to wait a few more years while recovering.
If that's our goal to continue to collect bitcoins then don't think about the market let alone predict this year or next year (2023) it's hard for us to guess, believe me over time by collecting your bitcoins and not checking the market often then that's the best way so this will not be stressful on us because our goal is to collect as many of them.

There are many reasons why bitcoin is the investment choice at this time, although we understand market conditions cannot provide ATH achievement for this year, bitcoin can be a hedge under any circumstances, the next two months there is no sign of bitcoin finding the next ATH, because the current price is around $32k and is slowly recovering.
If the opportunity to buy is available, then the most appropriate step is to buy, because the achievement of ATH will run by itself, what we have to think about is how to collect bitcoins gradually.

actually the price stays at 20k level ,  as while we are all seeking for the bulling yet expect this to happen not in our sooner time , there will be another increase but at least 25k is the max for this year(that's what  I believe to come)

but if it does not happen? what are you going to do? if that 4 year cycle does not take big effect in out time now?

only buy and take the price below this year because I believe next year the price may not be as cheap as this year, so I always remind people not to pass up that opportunity

2024 is the year when bitcoin halving and usually the price goes up a year after the halving, but sometimes it's not completely the same there must be a difference from the previous cycle, that's why I say investing in bitcoin will always get a big return, at least if you hold it for the next few years

That's right mate.
People will believe when they have been directly involved in investing, but for people who have been in the bitcoin investment system, they will never hesitate to collect bitcoins gradually according to the capital they have.
Today bitcoin corrected again at the price of $28k, this correction is still continuing and it may be difficult to find a recovery until the end of the year, thus the most appropriate condition is to collect bitcoins according to the capital we have.

maybe you mean $18k, since today the price of bitcoin has dropped drastically considering the problem with FTX which was acquired by Binance, since FTX stopped withdrawing its users since then the price of bitcoin has started to fall and drop, as usual there will always be problems in a bear market there is always drama and it's always been like that, wait for the time to pick up a bargain and keep buying it as long as it's under $20k it's cheap

Social media is filled with the acquisition news conducted by Binance against FTX that attracts its users, the market is very corrected for the next few days, this will be a good sign for people who want to enter the Bitcoin market, because as you say, $ 20k is the target good to start collecting bitcoin.
We don't know what will happen in the next few weeks, but it seems to take a purchase pattern at a price of $ 20K or below is a good step, the opportunity to get big profits when the market will become greener.

In 2022, there are about 50 days left and it seems like the negative trend every 4 years is happening again, and this is indeed difficult and makes us have to be more realistic when investing, as happened in 2021 when the market is rising, many people including myself also buy bitcoins a lot, even the most expensive price I've ever bought was around $58k and I still hold it to this day because it's a loss if you sell it.

bitcoin is a long term investment that many people need to know, don't make bitcoin a short term investment because it will cost anyone to sell it cheap when the bear market comes, so holding your bitcoin is the right decision we just need a few more years to get the market bullish, I think we will recover quickly even though there are cases trying to make the price of bitcoin fall people are prepared to continue to buy it because under $20k is the cheapest price to buy bitcoin

HODL  ;)

Buy and Hodl. That's a simple strategy we can do. When the Bitcoin market price is cheap as it is today it is a good move to buy. Long-term investment provides every trader with a good opportunity to make a profit.
Market conditions will recover and people will turn to Bitcoin. Those of us who choose HODL in the long term will stand tall to welcome that time.

The problem is that not everyone has the money to take advantage of this great moment in terms of buying more Bitcoins or the altcoins they like. Some people who are still holding on and trying not to let go of assets during conditions like now are because they don't want to suffer losses, besides those who still survive in conditions like this are because they don't have more money to make more purchases.

If the problem lies in money in terms of ability to buy, then don't force it. It's enough to just survive without having to panic. Because this situation will change and it has happened before Bitcoin reached its highest price.
For those who have the money then make the best use of it to buy. Looks simple doesn't it, but this pattern is very useful in my opinion.

actually everyone has 2 choices, if people already bought it before this bloody moment hold on for some time because we will recover quickly waiting for any drama about crypto to finish so make sure for people who haven't entered the crypto market yet this is a good time to buy it

A good timing to buy only if you have a good overview if how the market will move or if you already have a glimpse if how long you will be aiming for your set target selling price. The options are available and the decision always depends on each type of investors, you can buy and hold or you do the daily trade, riskier though, but if you know how to ride well, they your chance of making decent money is still possible.

this year is the right time to take more crypto even though the public level is decreasing towards crypto exchange due to FTX case and others, other than that buy any crypto and keep it in your wallet where you keep the wallet key well without having to store it in exchange, as it is suggested for now to all crypto community not to keep money on exchange site just buy and keep for next 1 or 3 years take the profit

In investing, financial management is important before starting if you have mediocre money then don't invest if the money is only enough for daily needs.
That investment is used to have more money or it is said that many cold money people do not interfere with your money needs while they can manage it then they can invest long term and after doing that they don't have to panic because our goal is a long investment so if not one more year of our investastment don't worry and stay calm.

https://i.ibb.co/5677sd6/Screenshot-7.png

Source: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/cryptocurrency/ftx-declares-bankruptcy/

I have to bring this up because it's also one of the journeys into the 4 year cycle of bitcoin.

The bitcoin price has been falling since yesterday because of the news and rumors about FTX. In fact, this is nothing new in the cryptocurrency world, let alone talking about this problem that always arises after the bull market ends, that's why I always withdraw all my funds to my personal wallet to avoid things like this. Exchange problems seem to be endless and most of them run away from problems and leave their users. So always be careful storing your bitcoins or funds in exchanges, because there is no safe place in this world.

remember sometimes for the big whales to take your bitcoins at cheap prices they need to make drama, you may remember the mtgox case in 2014 where it was a bearish year, maybe mtgox was a big exchange in its time but see if after the mtgox case bitcoin and crypto die, not really
look at the many hack dramas that are actually the people inside as the cause, I don't want to say much, maybe apart from mtgox you will see many similar cases and bitcoin will always rise from its slump so that's why I always remind you to take it when they panic and throw it away cheap , buy bitcoins in this year because we don't know next year we will stay bearish or go into bullish market, many projects failed before FTX and I think people are smart enough with that, so keep bitcoins in your wallet safely  ;)

Totally agree with the advice you gave, because of the several cases that have occurred and seen by everyone including the case of the FTX exchange at this time, everything will return to a normal track and Bitcoin will still get a better increase after there have been many cases that sinks and finishes over time.

There's nothing wrong with buying Bitcoin in these bearish conditions or in situations when others are starting to panic, as that is also an option that needs to be taken advantage of by those who are patiently waiting for an increase in Bitcoin in the coming year.

people new to bitcoin and crypto will say bitcoin has died after this FTX incident, but indirectly they don't realize how many bitcoins were announced to have died before almost 400x and until now bitcoin is still surviving, then why are people panic throwing the price bitcoin was yesterday lol that was really a golden opportunity to go even cheaper whereas $20k bitcoin was already cheap in my opinion, but bitcoin hit the $15k floor yesterday and it was definitely a big whale opportunity to buy more

What would you think if this cycle happened again

2012 bitcoin halving
2013 bitcoins to the moon
2014 bitcoin bearish
2015 bitcoin recovery
2016 bitcoin halving
2017 bitcoins to the moon
2018 bitcoin bearish
2019 bitcoin recovery
2020 bitcoin halving
2021 bitcoins to the moon
2022 bitcoin bearish
2023 bitcoin recovery
2024 bitcoin halving
2025 ??? you can fill it yourself

Do we have to buy more this year?

Looks like that's what we need to do this year by accumulating a lot, we realize that this four-year cycle has become a mandatory or unavoidable matter for Bitcoin to continue to benefit those who did not enter the previous cycle.
I call this a price discount given by institutional investors or whale investors.
The recovery phase might be very boring for holders, because the movement is said to be very slow so that DCA in the price recovery phase is highly recommended to maintain the mentality in the event of another decline and we still have funds to buy when the decline occurs.

yes that's what everyone should stay aware of that when it comes to the recovery stage it doesn't mean there is no price decline but I see a lot of difference each cycle so I think this year is a good year to buy some crypto gradually as a long term investment

It seems to me that 2023 will be a recovery for bitcoin. And already after the halving. But now there is a good opportunity to buy cheap bitcoin for a long time. Even if the price drops again, it will be very good in the future. The main thing is if you buy it, don't sell it cheaper.

2025......? maybe we inevitably have to follow the 4-year cycle that has occurred in several bullish periods in previous years.
to be honest I doubt a little if this will ever be a 4 year cycle like it was but if we speculate looking at the movement of the cycle it is a bit true and this year is like a big discount to buy bitcoins and collect more.
but back to each strategy because everyone has their own goals.
this is just my speculation, that this will happen again.

this year should be a good year to buy it gradually if there is a price drop in the middle of the year or the end of the year i think the cycle seems to be continuing to work and people have faith in it

yes as speculation and poll that has been collected in this Utas that people say yes that this cycle will work again to do the umpteenth time, so this is an inseparable faith by the crypto community and I must appreciate it

And it is still very reasonable for the crypto community to believe about the next cycle in Bitcoin because it has seen evidence of passing the previous two cycles every four years. So if speculation about the next cycle can really happen again, of course the crypto community, especially those who still hold Bitcoin, will be very happy and it can be a very big fortune in their life. So just pray that it can happen again in Bitcoin.

the belief many people in the crypto community have in a 4 year cycle is inseparable from what has happened in the past, and I think it is very logical for the same thing to happen again, and I really believe in that.

and as for the profit that you get when that happens, it depends on the people who hold Bitcoin for at what time to buy it and release it, for the profit that you get I think there must be but big or small which is different.

You first said that a 4 year cycle maybe inevitable so why having a doubt on your second sentence? You can doubt it if it happened 1 time only but it happened 3 to 4 times now so I think the year 2025 is going to be the fifth on the list. This year, we can see that the prices are now starting to recover but we can still buy if we want to and expect that we can still earn something later on.

I only can't say that this was a big discount but if ever there are then that would be last year when the price is at their bottom. Each of us has our own strategy but we all have similarities and that is we buy, hodl (can be short or long term) and sell for profits.

The four-year cycle is indeed the foundation of long-term investors to jump into the market and it continues, so it is likely that recovery will be carried out this year as we have seen that bitcoin has been improving day by day for two weeks this month. people who have plunged at the bottom price were very lucky in the previous month.
A decline may occur in Q2 or Q3 for the price of bitcoin as a correction before continuing to increase. I think that is a natural thing in the market, I agree that gradual buying is very important to control our emotions towards the market and of course it is safer when there is a decline because we have funds left over and we can buy it at the drop time.

Well I believe in the 4 year cycle because this will repeat past history but we will be back in 2024/25 for the next so this word is always after the halving occurs this cycle is formed which becomes new history again.
The market is currently recovering but it won't have a bigger impact to go up I expect $30,000 so far this year (don't know what happened during this journey) but when it enters the year of the halving 2024 we will see how bitcoin reacts in the market later.
This year is still below the baseline for bitcoin, I myself still continue to earn it in my own way with the same goal, namely profit, so keep buying until the bitcoins we have accumulate.

Whale investors often want to keep the market somewhat artificially bearish. They can use their strategy to extract profits from the market. When Bitcoin price was $16K whalers did their job properly. General investors assume that following the cycle of Bitcoin we will see bullish next year 2024 and collect Bitcoin before that time. But big investors always do that Calculate in advance. BTC reached from $16k to $23k in less than 1 week. It is just the beginning of the year. I believe BTC will be able to be bullish again before 2024. This is because whales always take the decision first. After all it is true that Neither FTX nor Luna will keep BTC bearish.

Baring in mind that it's not just that in 2024 that Bitcoin is expected to be bullish again, but also that based on a 4-year cycle the low would be at the end of 2022 / start of 2023. So clearly enough whales were buying around this time in anticipation or speculation of a low, like buying end of 2018 or beginning of 2019 under $4K. Especially if there's the possibility of a 3-4x increase within the year.

Sure. People believe in 4 year-cycle because they learn the scheme of the previous bearish-bullish season. And people realize that BTC halving has a crucial role to determine this 4 year-cycle. So, as long as there is BTC halving, it is very logical to expect 4 year-cycle to return again. But we don't think if it always happens, there is the possibility of no return of 4 year-cycle. Crypto market is unpredictable and no one can guarantee the same thing to happen in the future.

It is a nice cycle you mapped out. Yea  this year bitcoin will be recovering itself gradually so we still have to buy and store this year so that when next year comes for halving you will be smiling. The prediction for me as of 2025, bitcoin will be it All Time High (ATH).  This year  is the time to buy enough and store it the wallet .

We could indeed make patterns and some says that it isnt really just that a coincidence on making up these listing and trying to see that we are on a recovering state.Whether these things could be real or not

but somehow we are really be able to see that it is really just indeed moving on what we are supposed to see basing up with those patterns but it wont 100% precise for you to rely on with this kind of approach.

4 year cycle? Possibly yes and possibly no, because this market is never been predictable but its not bad on following up with those patterns if you could be able to bare up with the risk.

I heard Bitcoin since 2013 when prices skyrocketed from $ 100 to more than $ 1000, at that time Bitcoin often became trending on business TV and I thought that Bitcoin would continue to skyrocket, unfortunately in 2014 the price of dropping below $ 200, and the pattern above seemed to continue to continue Repeated and I'm sure the current year is the recovery year so I don't hesitate to buy more.

This is my opinion, that it is possible that this year there will not be a recovery, but perhaps at the beginning of next year the recovery will begin to be seen, which will be accompanied by the halving era which will indeed occur in 2024.
although indeed the current situation is there is movement to increase even though it is not guaranteed that it will continue to move up until the end of the year, so we will see that later.

We all know that the price of bitcoin and crypto in the past few weeks has increased maybe it's due to the effect of the halving schedule that will take place in the next year, it means that we are still on track with a 4 year cycle and it is inevitable that it will always be so until the next cycle . You can see the halving countdown below

https://i.imgur.com/6GeM8oZ.png (https://academy.binance.com/en/halving)

From this thread I learned a lot from all the speculation and analysis provided by the forum community and of course there are many different opinions and even different views from each other's point of view, that's why I will close this thread because we all know that we have found the answer and in the end everyone participating in the discussion in this thread are great people, cheers

2025 To The Moon  ;)