Bitcoin price with a 4 year cycle?

[batang_bitcoin]

My personal view is that 2024 will be a better year for the world economy, regardless of whether the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, the Fed rate hikes can be paused or significantly reduced for the economy to grow.

It's because that's the usual cycle for most economies, it won't be staying at the lowest forever but there will be economies that will surely be left behind if their local government does nothing. Just like what we've seen in countries like Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Argentina. Sure, the other economies will recover, those that have a recovery plan and have it on execution.

Since the United States will enter the presidential election in 2024, they will certainly have to find ways to make the election go smoothly without any obstacles. So we are right to expect a better market in 2024.

Thus, halving is gonna happen for bitcoin at that year. That's why the crypto market will become better by that time.

[1714644860]

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[1714644860]

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[TheGreatPython]

The percentage level of decline in Bitcoin has always been different in the time period you mentioned and yes it is also the rate of increase in every four years because Bitcoin is not at the same ATH in every four years. That's the evidence that many people have seen by now and the possibility for a major upgrade cycle over the course of every four years, I think will still be there and happening in Bitcoin.

But as the cycle continues the percentage will not be the same obviously. The rate of increase might be somewhat lessen as compare to the previous run. It's because the price is really very high or going to a level that not everyone can invest a lot and only the whales will have the money to invest huge amount. In any case though, we average joe can be part of the next bull run, just invest small and what we can afford in this bear market. And maybe in the next bull run, the price will be in the 6 digit

Percentage may of course change, which it has every time we have gone up, but the idea that it will be bigger than the last ATH will stay, we do not drop too much further anymore, we do not stay at ATH anymore, that's what the cycle means.

Last cycle we went from under 1k to over 20k and dropped to 3k and never seen under 1k again, this cycle we managed to go over 20k ,and seen it reach 68k and drop to around 18k at lowest and never seen under 10k again. Next time around I guarantee it will be over 68k, and it is going to be something like "never see under 40k again" or maybe 50k who knows. That's how it progresses, so it gives ease of mind to me for sure.

[piebeyb]

I'm also sure a lot of people selling their Bitcoins hit the bottom $20k and the whales always catch it below it, when it's under $20k it always comes back above $20k when the whales take it, I guess it's a matter of time to see the market recover soon, events 2018 not the same as 2014 nor 2022 is never the same as 2018 please pay attention to the charts

Whales are rich people for a reason. It's clear that if you are investing when it is at the bottom then even if it goes down a little bit more, it can't go down too much more and the result will be a big profit when it recovers. This doesn't mean that you should be investing whenever you want, of course make your own deductions on when to invest, but buying it when it's so much lower than it used to be means it should be a good profit.

I mean we are nearly 3x away from the ATH and that's a good thing, we should definitely look into it. That means having some sort of profit already calculated in with the ATH will make it easier in the minds as well.

yes that's why below $20k is a really cheap price for bitcoin price, seeing when below that we are pushed back above $20k, it gives a signal that the price will continue to be not far from $20k, not sure it will touch $10k, so now I'm just waiting to see the market recover, I'm sure it won't take long to see a high price 2x the current price

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

I'm also sure a lot of people selling their Bitcoins hit the bottom $20k and the whales always catch it below it, when it's under $20k it always comes back above $20k when the whales take it, I guess it's a matter of time to see the market recover soon, events 2018 not the same as 2014 nor 2022 is never the same as 2018 please pay attention to the charts

Whales are rich people for a reason. It's clear that if you are investing when it is at the bottom then even if it goes down a little bit more, it can't go down too much more and the result will be a big profit when it recovers. This doesn't mean that you should be investing whenever you want, of course make your own deductions on when to invest, but buying it when it's so much lower than it used to be means it should be a good profit.

I mean we are nearly 3x away from the ATH and that's a good thing, we should definitely look into it. That means having some sort of profit already calculated in with the ATH will make it easier in the minds as well.

yes that's why below $20k is a really cheap price for bitcoin price, seeing when below that we are pushed back above $20k, it gives a signal that the price will continue to be not far from $20k, not sure it will touch $10k, so now I'm just waiting to see the market recover, I'm sure it won't take long to see a high price 2x the current price

I think it will not be good for the market at the end of the month and obviously we might be in the red candle again. Nevertheless, this is to be expected in a long and bearish market. Below $20k is really a cheap price. This is where we stand in 2017, ATH at that time.

And having a correcting to it's previous ATH has never been seen in bitcoin young market. But if there is some consolation, it's the price is very cheap and at a discount and this could be take advantage by many bitcoin holders.

[virasog]

bitcoin has always been near $20k and it has always stayed there, just waiting for time to recover and get a bull market, what do you think about this and do you believe bitcoin will hit $10k   

I don't think a bull market is to be expected this year or even early quarter next year, that's unlikely. The price speculation to $10k will always be a possibility, considering how much percentage we got tank last 2018 bear market. My maximum bet will be on the range of $13k-$14k though that will gonna hit here and probably the 4 year cycle isn't gonna happen anymore.

I understand people will always look at 2018 and fear that it could always get worse, but I do not believe that it will be the case this time around at all. We already found the bottom, 17.6k was the bottom this time around and even with fed increase and crashes and problems we haven't reached back there even though we were close.

This means that unless some whale starts to sell thousands of bitcoins all at the same time, the price will not go there. A lot of people bought it when it was much higher, and the ones who said enough is enough ended up selling and getting out, I doubt that it would go any worse than it is right now.

yes I'm also sure a lot of people selling their Bitcoins hit the bottom $20k and the whales always catch it below it, when it's under $20k it always comes back above $20k when the whales take it, I guess it's a matter of time to see the market recover soon, events 2018 not the same as 2014 nor 2022 is never the same as 2018 please pay attention to the charts

I'm still leaning towards the market's four-year cycle argument, maybe things won't be exactly the same year after year but to expect a bull season earlier than 2025 is unlikely. The market has companies participating, some countries there is no guarantee that the market will not have a 4-year cycle.
I don't know what you saw on the chart, but just looking at the current world situation, it's unlikely a bull run will come any time soon, possibly even worse in 2023 when the Fed says they There's no reason to stop or slow down rate hikes. I still fear that the bear cycle will last more than 4 years if the war doesn't end and inflation doesn't cool down.

2023 might be worst and the actual start of the bull run could be 2024, right after the bitcoin halving. So if everything stays as it should be to be, then the 4 year cycle will continue.

Well that's what we see in 2020, the pandemic really bring the worst in everyone and yet after the halving the market recovered and slowly goes into a massive bull run. So I'm expecting that even with the recession 2024 might be year that we will see all market bouncing back.

Well, before the pandemic bitcoin was trading at around 6000$ but due to the pandemic crisis, it dumped to 4000$. I don't think we may see another pandemic like event in next 1-2 years. This means that bitcoin may not dump to the 5000-10,000$ level. Who knows around 17000$ might become the ultimate bottom for this bear market.
Whatever the case, i wish we see the bottom this year and move upwards from 2023 onwards. Let's see how things develop this time around.

[STT]

History dont repeat but it rhymes, the one common point for over decade now is the volatility of events is rising.     I m not sure what could be worse then a pandemic to create a sell and surprise low but seems like we should expect the unexpected to occur on each cycle as described.   My take for extreme low was not this 20k area, I never really counted 20k as more then a flat zero type number which is just my take; 2019 peaks was the most relevant area I saw the absolute boundary.   If we exceeded that then its into the 10k area we circled around for so long, I suggest that would surprise many and Ive no idea how long that price lasts maybe only hours.

[piebeyb]

History dont repeat but it rhymes, the one common point for over decade now is the volatility of events is rising.     I m not sure what could be worse then a pandemic to create a sell and surprise low but seems like we should expect the unexpected to occur on each cycle as described.   My take for extreme low was not this 20k area, I never really counted 20k as more then a flat zero type number which is just my take; 2019 peaks was the most relevant area I saw the absolute boundary.   If we exceeded that then its into the 10k area we circled around for so long, I suggest that would surprise many and Ive no idea how long that price lasts maybe only hours.

not many well-known companies or people at that time invested in bitcoin so it was easy to fall at unwanted prices, we see today not a few famous companies or famous people put their money and I'm sure they will not let that happen, so that's what i'm saying why history can change over time because if we look at bitcoin's past it hasn't had anyone even the richest people hate it , so this is why there is a difference of opinion about this cycle, not sure we'll see $10k in either future

[|MINER|]

History dont repeat but it rhymes, the one common point for over decade now is the volatility of events is rising.     I m not sure what could be worse then a pandemic to create a sell and surprise low but seems like we should expect the unexpected to occur on each cycle as described.   My take for extreme low was not this 20k area, I never really counted 20k as more then a flat zero type number which is just my take; 2019 peaks was the most relevant area I saw the absolute boundary.   If we exceeded that then its into the 10k area we circled around for so long, I suggest that would surprise many and Ive no idea how long that price lasts maybe only hours.

not many well-known companies or people at that time invested in bitcoin so it was easy to fall at unwanted prices, we see today not a few famous companies or famous people put their money and I'm sure they will not let that happen, so that's what i'm saying why history can change over time because if we look at bitcoin's past it hasn't had anyone even the richest people hate it , so this is why there is a difference of opinion about this cycle, not sure we'll see $10k in either future

I don't think in future we are not going to see that much dumping of bitcoin. Yes it's true that now bitcoin can't make a good sustainable resistance zone around this situation so I also think that in future we were having to see Bitcoin is dumping but It could be create a resistance after so I don't think bitcoin is going to that much farther low

[piebeyb]

History dont repeat but it rhymes, the one common point for over decade now is the volatility of events is rising.     I m not sure what could be worse then a pandemic to create a sell and surprise low but seems like we should expect the unexpected to occur on each cycle as described.   My take for extreme low was not this 20k area, I never really counted 20k as more then a flat zero type number which is just my take; 2019 peaks was the most relevant area I saw the absolute boundary.   If we exceeded that then its into the 10k area we circled around for so long, I suggest that would surprise many and Ive no idea how long that price lasts maybe only hours.

not many well-known companies or people at that time invested in bitcoin so it was easy to fall at unwanted prices, we see today not a few famous companies or famous people put their money and I'm sure they will not let that happen, so that's what i'm saying why history can change over time because if we look at bitcoin's past it hasn't had anyone even the richest people hate it , so this is why there is a difference of opinion about this cycle, not sure we'll see $10k in either future

I don't think in future we are not going to see that much dumping of bitcoin. Yes it's true that now bitcoin can't make a good sustainable resistance zone around this situation so I also think that in future we were having to see Bitcoin is dumping but It could be create a resistance after so I don't think bitcoin is going to that much farther low

that's why i said never going to touch $10k, i think the current price is way more than what people want

I have someone saying that the Bitcoin does not have to have a circle but won't understand so far bitcoin have circle and circle of Bitcoin is something that come up every 4 years and everything is if we experience is the downfall of Bitcoin this year very well then by next year probably will experience the increment of Bitcoin so this is how it works but it does not have a particular thing about the last time it did take off

the middle of last year also we experienced a fall in the price of bitcoin and it was exactly the same as the middle of this year

[kotajikikox]

~~~

2023 might be worst and the actual start of the bull run could be 2024, right after the bitcoin halving. So if everything stays as it should be to be, then the 4 year cycle will continue.

Well that's what we see in 2020, the pandemic really bring the worst in everyone and yet after the halving the market recovered and slowly goes into a massive bull run. So I'm expecting that even with the recession 2024 might be year that we will see all market bouncing back.

My personal view is that 2024 will be a better year for the world economy, regardless of whether the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, the Fed rate hikes can be paused or significantly reduced for the economy to grow.
Since the United States will enter the presidential election in 2024, they will certainly have to find ways to make the election go smoothly without any obstacles. So we are right to expect a better market in 2024.

3 years more from the pandemic will surely a great year, remember that the world is still suffering in the last worldwide pandemic we had and this really break every countries economy and like mine? yours will also be expecting years of recovery .
so with all those mentioned from yours to mine? we will take this a lesson and learning from what had happened to last 2020 and the cycle of bitcoin will turn this market to bull year again.



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The Poll is completely saying it all, and it is YES..

[Pujangga]

Cycles have been proven to happen and now we are entering the third 4 year cycle, and until now this is still true, the price has dropped more than 60% compared to ATH that has happened in 2021, but the good thing is that we are soon entering a new era so that soon will see prices skyrocket again.

[G_Besar]

Cycles have been proven to happen and now we are entering the third 4 year cycle, and until now this is still true, the price has dropped more than 60% compared to ATH that has happened in 2021, but the good thing is that we are soon entering a new era so that soon will see prices skyrocket again.

What makes you so sure that prices will skyrocket again in the new era? If you count the cycle every 4 years since Bitcoin was introduced, then this is the fourth cycle that has occurred, but if now is the beginning of a big pump, then the calculation is still very long and you still have to be more patient to see the price skyrocket.

[Lambe Ndumble]

Many say that the 4 -year trend is repeated again, for me this is normal because when Bitcoin reaches the peak, there will be profit taking from investors who make prices corrected, and now the position is very cheap so the time to buy before skyrocketing again.

[piebeyb]

I have someone saying that the Bitcoin does not have to have a circle but won't understand so far bitcoin have circle and circle of Bitcoin is something that come up every 4 years and everything is if we experience is the downfall of Bitcoin this year very well then by next year probably will experience the increment of Bitcoin so this is how it works but it does not have a particular thing about the last time it did take off

the middle of last year also we experienced a fall in the price of bitcoin and it was exactly the same as the middle of this year

All is speculation based on history and nothing is certain, as well as your speculation because you think things turn out differently from history but you yourself are not sure. It is true that in the middle of last year we had a drop and then bitcoin bounced back and went straight to an ATH of $69k, but do you take into account the current economic situation? This year, we have to deal with inflation and the market depends on raising rates and as the Fed has stated, they will not stop raising rates until inflation is below average. This means that interest rates will continue to remain at least until next year and can be extended. Therefore, it is very difficult to get the bull season next year.

I know about inflation and rising interest rates, but bitcoin has kept its price above $19k and that hasn't caused bitcoin to fall any lower exactly at $10k which is of course where people expect bitcoin to fall at that price to buy it, just waiting for time to make the market is recovering and I believe everything will recover quickly without having to wait for the next 4 years, that's what I'm thinking at the moment, this cycle doesn't seem to have any effect anymore because it's easy for everyone to predict and it will never be good in the end, once again we are all just speculating here

[STT]

The people who have to dump BTC will tend to do it at the point of its sharpest decline, I think we already saw that occur this year.   Gradual drift down isnt going to flush out as many people, its more of a choice then being forced by leverage or mis-speculation if anything its an opportunity to accumulate though thats only clear in retrospect.   Due to previous cycles and how we've repeated this process I can say a number of times not through skill or any great judgement I managed to save up a bit of the BTC during this unpopular lulls when nobody thinks it will ever do much again and yet we keep seeing a full range from zero velocity to extreme gains.  

[rby]

Many say that the 4 -year trend is repeated again, for me this is normal because when Bitcoin reaches the peak, there will be profit taking from investors who make prices corrected, and now the position is very cheap so the time to buy before skyrocketing again.

That is it, bitcoin is cyclical, it moves in the bull direction and also move in the bear direction. At every direction experts know where it is heading  and when it is close to the destination, there will be massive buying or massive selling. It is at the bottom region and what is happening is accumulation while some people are spreading fud to enable it remain in the accumulation region for so long and after they have accumulated, they will engineer some bull run news to drive the market up once again.

[Wawa2013]

Many say that the 4 -year trend is repeated again, for me this is normal because when Bitcoin reaches the peak, there will be profit taking from investors who make prices corrected, and now the position is very cheap so the time to buy before skyrocketing again.

That is it, bitcoin is cyclical, it moves in the bull direction and also move in the bear direction. At every direction experts know where it is heading  and when it is close to the destination, there will be massive buying or massive selling. It is at the bottom region and what is happening is accumulation while some people are spreading fud to enable it remain in the accumulation region for so long and after they have accumulated, they will engineer some bull run news to drive the market up once again.

Becoming the most awaited 4-year cycle that occurs in Bitcoin, where Bitcoin every 4 years there will be a Bitcoin halving, this can make
the Bitcoin pump very high and make the price of Bitcoin reach new ATH. That's why people who are experienced in the crypto world,
never doubted the future of Bitcoin, even though the price of Bitcoin in this year's bear market has not been able to recover. Because
for experienced people they know Bitcoin will recover when Bitcoin halving happens, meaning that in 2024/2025 it is likely that the price of
Bitcoin will pump very high. Therefore it should be a bear market now where the price of Bitcoin is already at a low price, be the right time
to collect as much Bitcoin as possible and we are holding until the Bitcoin halving occurs. So when the Bitcoin halving happens we already
have enough Bitcoins, which we will make a big profit when we sell it.

[piebeyb]

The people who have to dump BTC will tend to do it at the point of its sharpest decline, I think we already saw that occur this year.   Gradual drift down isnt going to flush out as many people, its more of a choice then being forced by leverage or mis-speculation if anything its an opportunity to accumulate though thats only clear in retrospect.   Due to previous cycles and how we've repeated this process I can say a number of times not through skill or any great judgement I managed to save up a bit of the BTC during this unpopular lulls when nobody thinks it will ever do much again and yet we keep seeing a full range from zero velocity to extreme gains.  

this could have happened because of inflation and also rising interest rates or indeed they sold it only to buy it again under cheaper right at $10k to double their bitcoin amount, but I'm not sure that the price of bitcoin is $10k because I think $20k is a low price and it's already down more than 50% from ATH , so bitcoin is holding on to that price and it's likely we'll look once more to try a countercurrent recovery when people have dumped their bitcoins a lot and hope they buy it expensive later because it's been selling cheap, no have to wait near the bitcoin halving or wait 4 years to go bullish because at any time bitcoin can recover quickly and bullish

[rby]

Many say that the 4 -year trend is repeated again, for me this is normal because when Bitcoin reaches the peak, there will be profit taking from investors who make prices corrected, and now the position is very cheap so the time to buy before skyrocketing again.

That is it, bitcoin is cyclical, it moves in the bull direction and also move in the bear direction. At every direction experts know where it is heading  and when it is close to the destination, there will be massive buying or massive selling. It is at the bottom region and what is happening is accumulation while some people are spreading fud to enable it remain in the accumulation region for so long and after they have accumulated, they will engineer some bull run news to drive the market up once again.

Becoming the most awaited 4-year cycle that occurs in Bitcoin, where Bitcoin every 4 years there will be a Bitcoin halving, this can make
the Bitcoin pump very high and make the price of Bitcoin reach new ATH. That's why people who are experienced in the crypto world,
never doubted the future of Bitcoin, even though the price of Bitcoin in this year's bear market has not been able to recover. Because
for experienced people they know Bitcoin will recover when Bitcoin halving happens, meaning that in 2024/2025 it is likely that the price of
Bitcoin will pump very high. Therefore it should be a bear market now where the price of Bitcoin is already at a low price, be the right time
to collect as much Bitcoin as possible and we are holding until the Bitcoin halving occurs. So when the Bitcoin halving happens we already
have enough Bitcoins, which we will make a big profit when we sell it.

Well analysis you did and that is how it will work out. But one thing we have always known in crypto is that from one halving to another halving, in-between use to be some bull runs. Even if not large or big bull run but there will be a good number of them. But in this cycle, it seems that it only happened once and so and the other in-between bull runs did not happen and that is why it seems that we have remained in this bear for a long time.
Waiting for another halving in order to have a bull run is the sure plan for majority bitcoin investors.

[Vinaa77]

Do you think we will follow the 4 year cycle again or we will go to the next ATH?

We cannot wait for a cycle in every 4 years or wait for ATH to return. Because we will spend a wonderful time to buy. If the bull market is going on, of course our doubts in investing will be higher than the bear market conditions. If he is a professional investor, of course he is happy with a bear market because he gets the opportunity for early stage investments at low prices.