Bitcoin Forum

6/22/14

Hello folks, I am an avid student of history and trader on the side.  I had supported myself via small stakes poker (3-14 tables) at times throughout my studies.  But currently poker is nearly dead.  So I will create a blog detailing my opinions and trades.

I like to trade creatively.  I am not necessarily a technical trader, as that will not work.  I normally follow a system but bitcoin is indeed different than the markets.

This last year has been very good for me.  Immediately after the silk road incident back in October I knew bitcoin was going to blow up and put a decent chunk of my savings into BTC/ltc, and after the new years, once again, I did quite well seeing the crash.  I used a combination of logic, news, and tech analysis.

Here is a screenshot of one of my accounts that I use to trade:

https://i.imgur.com/OGEWv7K.png

It has nearly 400 pages of transactions, so I do kind of know what I am doing.

Prediction for this week--

It seems that bitcoin is on the verge of breaking its downward trend, but what will induce another bubble?

Current: 601 @ bitstamp.

6/22/14 - 6/29

lo- 540

hi - 700

trades: none, it is pretty horizantal for now.

Well, not much to predict right now as it's quite calm, but you look like a nice person and you might be a good trader, so it's interesting to see what this blog will bring in the future.

What are your thoughts on endless log growth charts on bitcoin that you see in this forum? Do you think we will stay in the log growth trend which is a boom every few months, or are we going to move out of that trend?

I am on the fence. I see tons and tons of incredibly favorable bitcoin news every single week, however, i don't see ANY adoption with neighbors and people. Yes geek adoption, but then only moderately.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't happen this time around.  I think those that have the capability of adopting btc already have, and the rest are either against or don't know yet.  The dilemna is that those who don't know about cryptos yet probably won't be adopting anytime soon or have the ability to adopt.

Like you said, geek adoption, but how many geeks out there don't already know about bitcoin?

Did you predict that we would go to 1.2k in december when we were around $130 in september?

Or that we would go to 266 in april 2013 when the price was $10 in december 2012?

No, i thought it was going to hit 600-900 before another crash, didn't think it would hit 1200.

Ok, hopefully you're wrong this time ;D

Where do you think we'll be at in 3 months time however?

hmm, so pretty cautious trader then.

not sure your trading style fits so well to bitcoin then, but let's see.

I'm not geek at all and I adopted Bitcoin 13 months ago :D

So the tens of millions of infrastructure investment and the countless thousands of hours of legal dicking around creating ETFs, regulations and exchanges are all for nothing? Hmm...

sounds like 13 months ago you became a geek :)

I meant for the short term next 3-6 months, and like I said, I am going out on a limb.  I was a former poker player, so I can take a loss with not much of a problem.  I think the next bubble would depend upon mass adoption.  With the state of bitcoin right now and its concerns, it is not fit for mass adoption at all. 

edit- but than again bubbles are a sign of its potential, so who knows.

Mass adoption is at least 3 or 4 bubbles away

All very well could be for nothing, at least in the short term. Business is ahead of public adoption by a large margin.

Here is a test for you, the next 10 people you meet that don't have a life in technology, ask them when they plan to buy Bitcoin and why. My guess is you will go zero for 10. I would not be surprised if it is zero out of 100.

6/28

this week's forecast-

same as last week.... horizantal... i definitely don't see much of a rise (maybe a bubble out of nowhere), if anything a drop and if it drops below the support, it could hit ATL since the double top at ~1150.

Trades- none, once again.

hi - could balloon to 900 since everyone is waiting for a bubble but so unlikely

low- more likely to hit a 400 low than 900 hi

but the most likely scenario is horizantal.

There used to be some really cool stick-figure animations named after you.

Those were actually live action movies

however he grew up now and is looking for new challenges, currently one of these challenges is making profit at the bitcoin market.

Ontopic:

I agree with this weeks prediction. While i think a bubble is coming soon, i don't expect it to be this soon (as in next week).

I don't get it.  What do u mean?

this, +1

I didn't really think about this a few days ago and my trading position is the opposite of this scenario (since I am waiting for a transaction to clear -- I know, total fail), but I think we are going to hit a bottom next week -- either 540 or 400. The thought is pretty basic, I am starting to get the vibe that the bids were low, and orchestrated as such, on the auction. Since the bidders were leaked there was a greater possibility for collusion and because this is an unregulated market collusion could occur with legal ramification. Therefore, if the whales were smart then the winning price would be low -- about $400 -- because they know this would cause a panic to the point that the support at $540 would probably give way and then all of the whales could each swoop in and buy a significant portion of the market at a discount. Since OP is an online poker player -- I'd say this is the scenario where you are playing cards online and two of the players at your table are sitting in the same room and flashing each other their cards so that they can make a coordinated play on everybody else at the table. I should have been way more pessimistic in my thinking and now I am hung up waiting until Thursday for my transaction to clear.

In a nutshell, I am bullish in even the intermediate term and definitely the long-term so it isn't a big deal, but I really wish I could sell right now before the potential wave slides through so that I could pick up more coins at a discount... I think this might be the best idea for others. (Note, I could be terribly off base on this thought).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3sexvJM5Go
i googled xiaoxiao

Are my predictions coming to fruition?  I don't know.

The greatest bubble according to Money Never Sleeps is the "cambrian explosion".  Is bitcoin just another mega version of the tulips?  Perhaps.  The thing that worries me is all these new cryto's coming out.  Dogecoin, soccercoin, sexcoin... come on?  next thing you know there will be something called shitcoin

What is your forecast for August ?

What's worrying about all the alts? The more that arrive and implode, the more solid BTC seems. It's quickly leaving every single one behind in terms of real world adoption. If there had been this quantity of them in 2010/11 then it would've been more of a concern. 

As for Shit Coin, well... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=307419.0

To be honest, I am contemplating shorting.  And the reason is because all this great news right now is a FRUITION of this past bubble, and a lot of inexperienced people are seeing it the other way around or seeing these new small good news to be causing a new bubble.  I'm still not sure what happened this last bubble, but it may have to do with some shady things going on with the chinese exchanges.  Market manipulation in China is unbelievable.

When you say things like this it makes me not take your predictions seriously. In fact, overall your logic seems to be fairly poorly educated. I think you need to study more factors before sharing your predictions.

I know what you mean, but what I meant was that all these crap coins sure makes bitcoin look good which is bullish, it is a sign people are into cryptos, but it may also cause inflation.

This is the smartest statement I've seen on this board.

My own guess is this, but it is projected way too far out and so many things can intervene and shake it up. I think we'll get some upwards price activity not for reason of good news, but because of a changing market infrastructure -- notably, more leveraging and more Wall Street bots. I think we are all going to be taken for a ride really soon and if you catch the peak you'll be sitting pretty but if you are a day late then you'll (not as in you, specifically, but as in people generally) be living out of a cardboard box.

I expect July 20 modest price movement for those behind the game trying to enter cheap, then late July rally that speeds up and then takes on a life of its own as disillusioned youth start to gamble with their financial aid dollars and then... the crash... cascading margin calls on overleveraged traders PLUS a big exchange falling. Hopefully I am wrong because that would be an existential crisis.

That was launched 9 months ago: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=307419.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=307419.0)

The auction is an absolute bearish sign.  You don't beat the government's predicitons.

the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.

Bitcoins is different than other seized assets.  Your example of the ferrari is a terrible analogy.

Nope.  The government is required to liquidate any assets it seizes.  They don't have a choice.  Therefore, the presence of the auction is neither positive, nor negative.  The outcome of the auction, however, turned out to be quite positive.

+1 -  the fact that all bidders were outbid, by a single entity, i now forget his name.. is bullish.
He was prepared to overpay and part with $18M (or so the rumours go) to get his hands on those coins.

they're both property. same would happen with real property as well. bitcoin isn't money to them. how is that a bad analogy? you're over here quoting gordon gecko like he's a real person, telling us to short bitcoin because its traded sideways for 2 months. i think ill take bad analogies over your bad advice any day.

lol when did i tell you guys to short bitcoins.  I am on the fence, that is my whole point.

Who knows... but next bubble seems to be long ways ahead.


This week's forecast:

700-500

trade: none, 3rd week in a row no trades made.

Keep up the good work. Your analysis is sensible.

This week's forecast:  590-700 btsp price

trades : none 4th week in a row.

What's up with this stability?  Everyone expecting a bubble, nothing happening.

Mass adoption is a couple ETFs away.

I think altcoins are all going south, to be honest. Spend a bit of time looking into the market and you will find a whole heap of disillusionment. It's the biggest feeling out there by far.

I don't know, most of them could be going south but Litecoin is showing some resiliency over the last few days. Plus, didn't Litecoin pull off something crazy during the last Bitcoin spike up?

I think you should get back in the Kitchen Ramsay!  :D

Only joking, but please check out the Litecoin charts and dig up some news from the past couple of months. Litecoin is probably the biggest catastrophe out there at the moment in altcoinland.

EDIT: regarding the OP, I do not agree on the BTC prognosis. I think we are heading up after a few more days stable. By the end of the week.

Xiaoxiao: Are you based in china?

No sir.


This week's forecast:

550 - 700

Trades : none, 5th week in a row...

This weeks forecast:

500-659

Trades: none, for last 2 months.

not logarithmic, but i could see something like this happening:

https://i.imgur.com/3muXOpM.png

After some deliberation: I've decided to short .7 btc's (leveraged to 2.5) at 581.  Stop loss is at 650.  A buy order set at 510.

Just shorted another 1 btc (leveraged to 3) @ around 601.  I know I am taking a risk here, but it is these kinds of risks that has paid off.  Plus I have the emotional stability to handle a loss.

I remember when I went long for about 20 btc's in late Dec/ early Jan, when BTC took a dive from it's ATH, and then rebounded to 990.  @ about 960, I decided to go long for 20 btc's, and boy did that hit me right in the face when BTC took a dive.  But I didn't lose my cool and took a loss when it went below 900.  From there, I re-analyzed my positions and the market, and made it back fairly quickly.

So what you're saying is your system makes profit when the market is in a medium-term trend, but has some problems when that trend direction changes?  Have you looked to address that?  Are you worried about the resumption of the long-term bull trend?

Believe me, I am monitoring these trades and keeping a close eye on the "long term bull trend".  I believe there has to be another mega dip in which the impatient people rids a load of coins before another bubble.

Forecast for upcoming week (bitstamp price):  500-700.

Current trades:  Shorted about 4 coins @ 591.  Stop loss at 650.

No mega dip happened when we went from $10 to $266, its a different pattern from 2013-2014

Mostly luck :) and a bit of research.

Next week's forecast 400-700, but more likely sub 600.

Trades: closed position (bought 4) @ 500.  Profit: $360.

This weeks forecast 520-350...   Don't see it going any higher.

It seems as if the MTGOX incident, the china incidents, all created just a MEGA MEGA bubble in the last few years, and now reality hits.  Most pro traders and experienced commodity traders say this has mega bubble written all over it.

You see it going up and not taking a further turn, though? Because, frankly, I think people would be thrilled with 520-530 inside the week.

this week's fore cast--

Don't see it going above 520...

Could see it drop as low as 400.  

I think beginning late sept, early october... it will go into the next wave of down swing, which is the 450- 380 range.  Followed by a rebound to lower mid 400 - low 500 range... followed by another down swing to the lower 300 range.  And if that doesn't hold, it is dropping to the 100s

Folks, since all my predictions in this thread has been right... here is my next prediction:

We are headed over a long stretch of 3-9 months down to about sub $200.  Perhaps as low as sub $100 in 6 months time.

Final capitulation (as falllling says) i believe is coming in 3-9 months

best case scenario:

https://i.imgur.com/fGcsX3d.png

This week however: 500-400

trades: none... waiting to short if it goes below 440.

Smart not to trade, yet. There are a few events in the BTC world and the general economy that could lead to a fool's rally. I should learn this restraint. Anyhow, I think you are right... it is dead as a door nail (or, more appropriately, the price reflects what BTC would be worth if there was truly mass adoption as that is precisely what speculators were anticipating a year ago when they drove it up... well that and Willybot is dead).

You draw this triangle chart at your pleasure, man lol

no nay, you better study a bit more .... ;D ;D ;D

You know that when you start quoting fallling unironically, you've probably crossed over into troll territory yourself. Whatever works for you. (Also, "sloppy" doesn't even begin to describe that triangle in white you've tacked onto your post to give some resemblance of TA to your ramblings.)

i think "random as fuck" would describe that triangle better than "sloppy".  ::)

Agreed. Though I give decent chances for a capitulation this thread at all contains no TA. Nothing more than meaningless scribblings.

BBBBBBAAAAM

emergency forecast alert:

bitcoin about to nosedive in a few days.

trades: shorted about 5 btc @ 430

True. The problem was never whether what he said was likely to happen or not. The problem was that it was just random noise he produced, without any argument or analysis, and that he kept spamming it in several threads.

For real TA, see RyN's thread (but you're already there, I know...)

And OP is on ignore for a while already, together with fallling and the other trolls :D

If you don't think that the bottoms is behind us, you have to be
http://blindtraderbicester.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/BT-Logo-New-1.png

No offense to blind folk.

next phase of down swing ---- 220-350.  

current trades... shorting 4 btc's @ 375...

next week probably be at 310-330... after that prepare for 200s ... followed by up swing... then prepare for the 100s muahahaha

lol @ miners that sold there house and car for equipment!!!!

All that forum noise for a measly 4 btc's? You have been around since 2011 and should be a rich early adopter. Instead you are advising others how to trade when you are playing with peanuts. I've bought more than that today lol.

They deserve to lose it all and commit suicide, because they are such greedy, lazy fools  :D

Actually believing in magic money machines  ::)

1) you're a dumbass

2) keep feeding sellers money, until you lose 4x what you bought... and then 2 years later maybe there will be a min comeback and you break even

Haha. You were around in 2011.

1) Why are you not rich?

2) Why should anyone listen to the trading advice of someone who failed to capitalise on one of the greatest bull run accumulations in history?

3) If you are actually any good at trading (the previous two questions allude that you aren't) you would be throwing more than just over a thousand dollars around. 4 btc's? You have to be kidding. Bitcoin makes up 10% of my portfolio, if it goes to zero i will shrug. But even I make you look like a tiny goldfish. Amazing really.

like i said

1) you're a dumbass

2) your portfolio is probably worth as much as your moms left nut and going down fast.

3) gtfo of my blog you troll

Something has you angry. Reality check: when i say portfolio i don't mean the folder you use to hold your payslips. The truth hurts haha. Now swim away little goldfish and stop telling others what to do.

dude you bought at 1k plus and now you're thinking about selling.  just stop being a sore loser.  sell or wait 10 years.  and you might make a profit.  but just stop being a loser, please.

It is hard to not reach for the ignore button. Lets assess the facts. Review my post history. It all says the same thing that I bought the majority of my coins in the march-april run up last year. A single honest narrative. Would I like the price to be zooming into the stratosphere, sure. But you know what I will continue to accumulate and buy where I see value which is now.

Lets assess XiaoXiao.

1) Chance to become rich simply by holding a few dollars worth of btc in 2011 and being on this forum - tick.
2) Did he become rich? Er..No.
3) Offering trading advice loudly and vocally all over the forum as if he is a superstar trader/speculator - tick.
4) Actually has his money where his mouth is and is trading with large meaningful sums? Er..No. Actually trading with 4 btc (lol).

Ok. Now you are on ignore. Enjoy the final word.

Ignore button is for ostriches who burry head in sand to ignore facts. Typical bulltard method. Can't see bad, can't hear bad, means all is good. What a tard.

Dat 4BTC tho'

  :)

Next week's forecast- 10/12-10/18  350-450... things will even out a bit next week after the low of 275... however, it will probably not break out over 400 most likely... and sentiment will be low again...... later in the month... the previous ATM of 260 will certainly be tested.

current trades- 10 btc short sell @ 385... will stop loss at 450.

That is the fate of all bitcoin bears. Actually, assuming he's been a bear since 2011, he's doing pretty well, shorting one salary worth of an apple factory employee and he's not in jail for debt, better than most :)

F**k me  ;D

Thanks for the analysis

What happened to Sevvero? Was he banned?
Xiaoxiao doesn't seem to have been banned, yet.

I guess this is a super-duper, last time EVER, final warning.  ::)

anyway, see you tomorrow Xiaoxiao!  :-*

Was the OP's account bought by Paul K to spread some BTC hate?

This week's forecast:

220-420

Bitcoin could hit as low as previous ATH as we have seen, it is not jumping over 400 by much.  AFter the dip to 200s, it made a very weak attempt to break 400 (in which it did) but quickly dwindled.

Trades- 10btc shorted @ 385 few weeks ago.

Rather wide latitude.

Bitcoin will be anywhere between 0 and 1000 imo

Why half ass your predictions?

You suck at predicting... that's a crazy price to short at consider we have been bouncing around at this level. Better try to cover now at some profit then open another above 400, we will have a slight hit at least near it!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=829074.msg9265101#msg9265101 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=829074.msg9265101#msg9265101)

This week's forecast... 220- 395

could go as low as 200.

trades - shorted 10 @ 385

I'm pretty sure everyone on this forum could guess 220-395 with nothing to back it up. You don't need your own thread for that wide range guess.

lol, that a bit wide, isn't it? What's the point of posting this?

That is the the type of forecast when you use the dartboard

Ah sorry, completely forgot dartboard analysis.  ;D

Wide and yet not so much. It's basically a slight recovery or a flash crash. He could have just wrote, I think there will be a slight recovery or a flash crash, but that's less fun.

It helps lots.
It tells you to sell all if it gets to $380
And buy back when gets to $220.

Still shorting @ around 385 from few weeks ago.

Prospect of next month: horizantal.  range $350-$450. 

It must suck to be trading with less than ten btc when you had the opportunity to just buy and hold in 2011 but didn't because you thought you could get rich quick.

That might account for your constant bearish "analysis", yes?

this is my short term outlook too, next few days ~360-350 then steady up atleast 450 :-*

>range $350-$450

You got no idea what you're doing, do you?

No, I have not constantly been bearish.  I have been bearish at precisely the right times.

Didn't seem to be that far off.

Yet you have failed to capitalise meaningfully in anyway whatsoever on potentially the greatest bull run in financial history. You think people are interested in reading your forecast ideas or trading setups with that recent performance?

Worse you continue to post predictions here and even attempt to manipulate the price to unsuspecting newbie readers - who can forget your "final final final final warnings!!this time is really the last one!!" in recent months. Or your, what was it, 70% likelihood of bitcoin reaching 50 dollars imminently or some such nonsense.

There are good traders on this forum, people with excellent TA that even simple speculators like me enjoy reading and occasionally using. Some are even bears! But you add nothing useful or of any value whatsoever to this forum. You must be good at something in life. Do us all a favour and do that instead of posting this crap.

Two trolls... different side of the same bet... Xiaoxiao at least has the benefit of being right lately. You, Inca, haven't been right since about July. Still, two trolls, different side of the same bet.

If you weren't having a bad day I might be offended. If you review my post history you will find a post directly warning you personally about leverage several months ago.

I am not sure I have made anything approaching a firm prediction on this forum ever! My last impassioned defence of the holder may have been in July though and no doubt it was positive. Long term are the words most holders use for a bitcoin investment.

If calling out shameless manipulators, and charlatan traders offering up 'analysis' to unsuspecting newbies makes me a troll then fine :)

Dude, I haven't even lost money today... at all. I just think you guys are dicks. Like, do I need to show you my bank accounts? Seriously f---ing weird. Oh, somebody thinks we're dicks... they must be overleveraged. I mean, think about it... from start to finish, today, the price hasn't even moved much. Not really. So, ???????

My bad. What got you so riled up then?

Seriously, for like a month now... people have been total dicks to me. Today, I said we might get a slight downdraft following the Black Friday buying (retailers will unload at least some and people won't buy as much once the sales pass)... not a crazy idea. Then, I get like pages of s--- about how I am a retarded newbie who doesn't understand the technology and how BTC is going to like a gazillion by the end of the week. I mean, the tenor on here has changed but also a lot of the more hardened cultists are pushing out actual discussion.

Like, my feeling, is... the technology is cool, the exchanges suck, there is a ton of manipulation a lot of which has to do with interests outside of BTC, and I'm interested in hearing people's ideas about where the price is going -- whether they agree or disagree with me. Not craziness, bullying, and referencing a single one-off trade (that random spike to $450... I had a short at around the mid-380s, closed it around $410 when I realized it was going to keep running, and recouped part of the loss on the way up and back down).

Like, at this point, I'm kind of agnostic on my feelings about the price outside the very short-term. I think the community is too hostile for new people to come in, demand is flagging, and there are some headwinds (centralized miners needing to dump to cover costs, retailers dumping at least some... even if it is really BitPay or Coinbase dumping excess over demand, and regulation). At the same time, the price has already dropped so much that I can't say I really think it will drop much more... just that it won't be going to $10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000. A few years off, if this remains the primary crypto then society may catch up and you might get another explosion. This isn't a sure thing and not something happening in the next couple months -- that's a protracted event that requires a few things happen before hand... but it is possible.

But, even that aside, this is a speculation page. I'm speculating. Some days I speculate it will go up. Some days I speculate it will go down. But, instead, I just get lambasted by a bunch of hodl-tards (different than people just holding for the obvious reason of uncertainty and to avoid exchange fees -- which is smart) who accuse me of being a troll or something else. The community has just gotten really screwed up... it's turning back into an echo chamber. Frankly, I'm thinking about playing out a higher leveraged short just from these interactions -- maybe things are worse than I had realized.

We're all very puzzled why you seem to be the target of so much anger.

That was almost all today and all was responsive to harassment. People are a dick to me, I'll be a dick back.

It does get a bit heated on here, there is no doubt about that. I personally value your commentary on the site. Differing opinions are necessary and of course when everyone wants the price to rise being a bear is going to get you flack.

Trading short term movements of a volatile commodity is tiring, especially when the market -  as you say -  is so choppy and dare I say it heavily manipulated (it obviously is). I don't think anyone really is being deliberately hostile to you with a malicious intent. Your nickname is newbie so it that is why you get called a newbie!?

Most people try trading and leverage and some if they are good do well. Most don't (i didn't eventually) and that is reflected in the tensions on the wall thread from time to time. The grizzly holders like me have decided to just throw the darts at the wall in one throw and sit down and have a beer until they hit the dartboard. Don't forget lots of them bought in when bitcoin was far less expensive than now and can remain totally relaxed about the price even now in the 3xx's.

Yep things are uncertain but I wouldn't lose heart just yet. We are in that interesting phase of possibly technically ending a prolonged bear market and things may get suddenly far more exciting in the near future. Or not :)

Thanks for the thoughts, man.

@Inca, I've been bearish since the double top and ceiling at around 1100-1200.  Made numerous posts, took numerous short positions.  Each and every post I made since then, I was called names and attacked up until now. 

It's like I am being attacked by drug addicts because I said there will be withdrawal symptoms.

Once you are known as a troll (like Xiaoxiao) no one will take you seriously anymore, even if you have a legit point because it will all be mixed in the cloud of troll responses that you have. If you want honest real discussion of price movement stop the trolling now and don't make personal remarks to people...just focus on the price forecasts etc. Once you start going buck wild troll like Xiaoxiao's "this is it bitcoin is done, ive sold all my coins, see you f-ckers in hell" then "oh hey guys im back and doing well, bitcoin price is gonna be x on x date because of x" then "hahahahahah bitcoin drop!" etc etc there is NO coming back from that. You either have to deal with people treating you like you always are BS'ing, make a new forum account or just give up on BTCTalk and /quit.

To be fair, he warned us that he was completely full of shit in the very first post:


Glancing through the early posts, you get a sense that this thread is more to do with bragging about virtues and personality traits rather than any kind of substantive market discussion.

When I say I trade creative, it doesn't mean I ignore facts and charts.

Opened a new short position at 325. It's a bit weak of a position but seeing that there was no rebound at all when hitting almost 301, I think this time it will definitely test the previous ATH of 260-270.

I'm about 60% sure it will fall below 300 again but I am not so confident how long it will fall below 300, and I'm not very confident if it will fall below 265.

It's kind of appalling how many people have been trashing me since late December when I became bearish.  As you can see, I've never been bearish prior to that.  I think a lot of my intuition and analysis has been pretty spot on.

However, there is a chance that we may just stay around 300-400 for the next month or two before a shift upwards of downwards.

New position, closed short.  15 btc's long @ 280 ... we might be at a potential bottom right now.

Good one. I recently covered most of my shorts too in this decline. Risk/reward favors long from here

Me too. In my personal account, I covered and started long from 280. Our team account is controlled by algorithm, whose actions cannot be disclosed...

Well done op, good calls. I also see bottom in or not far.

Current trade: Just went long @ 297 BFX.  Looking to close @ around $360-430.  It is about to cross $300 any moment now on BFX.  The recent FINRA news is quite bullish, short term is very bullish as well.  Lots of cup and handles being formed on the charts.

You waited all the way until $297 to go long? What a missed opportunity, as soon as it passed the $285 area it was pretty obvious that the rest of today was going to be bullish. Best of luck for tomorrow.

I think it was a good trade.  I wasn't confident @280 or 285, but when it lingered around 298 last night, it was evident it will cross 300 quite soon.

I like your analysis Xiaoxiao,  brave putting all your trades public

Sadly if he had simply held his bitcoins in 2011 rather than flip-flopping in and out he would be retired.

Not the case, and thank you for judging me.

Closed my long position @297 @ 289 with a loss of ~$8/btc.  Started new short @ 291, because the current weak uptrend has been broken.

notify/watch not working for me..

Closed half the position from 285 short.  Now taking it easy a bit.

Hoping to short more if BTC falls below 208 or something like that.

GL and Happy trading!