Xiaoxiao's trading/forecast blog

[bitcoinsrus]

6/28

this week's forecast-

same as last week.... horizantal... i definitely don't see much of a rise (maybe a bubble out of nowhere), if anything a drop and if it drops below the support, it could hit ATL since the double top at ~1150.

Trades- none, once again.

hi - could balloon to 900 since everyone is waiting for a bubble but so unlikely

low- more likely to hit a 400 low than 900 hi

but the most likely scenario is horizantal.

There used to be some really cool stick-figure animations named after you.

I don't get it.  What do u mean?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3sexvJM5Go
i googled xiaoxiao

[Xiaoxiao]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't happen this time around.  I think those that have the capability of adopting btc already have, and the rest are either against or don't know yet.  The dilemna is that those who don't know about cryptos yet probably won't be adopting anytime soon or have the ability to adopt.

Like you said, geek adoption, but how many geeks out there don't already know about bitcoin?

So the tens of millions of infrastructure investment and the countless thousands of hours of legal dicking around creating ETFs, regulations and exchanges are all for nothing? Hmm...

I meant for the short term next 3-6 months, and like I said, I am going out on a limb.  I was a former poker player, so I can take a loss with not much of a problem.  I think the next bubble would depend upon mass adoption.  With the state of bitcoin right now and its concerns, it is not fit for mass adoption at all. 

edit- but than again bubbles are a sign of its potential, so who knows.

Are my predictions coming to fruition?  I don't know.

The greatest bubble according to Money Never Sleeps is the "cambrian explosion".  Is bitcoin just another mega version of the tulips?  Perhaps.  The thing that worries me is all these new cryto's coming out.  Dogecoin, soccercoin, sexcoin... come on?  next thing you know there will be something called shitcoin

[NapoleonBonaparte]

What is your forecast for August ?

[gentlemand]

The thing that worries me is all these new cryto's coming out.  Dogecoin, soccercoin, sexcoin... come on?  next thing you know there will be something called shitcoin

What's worrying about all the alts? The more that arrive and implode, the more solid BTC seems. It's quickly leaving every single one behind in terms of real world adoption. If there had been this quantity of them in 2010/11 then it would've been more of a concern. 

As for Shit Coin, well... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=307419.0

[Xiaoxiao]

What is your forecast for August ?

To be honest, I am contemplating shorting.  And the reason is because all this great news right now is a FRUITION of this past bubble, and a lot of inexperienced people are seeing it the other way around or seeing these new small good news to be causing a new bubble.  I'm still not sure what happened this last bubble, but it may have to do with some shady things going on with the chinese exchanges.  Market manipulation in China is unbelievable.

[windjc]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't happen this time around.  I think those that have the capability of adopting btc already have, and the rest are either against or don't know yet.  The dilemna is that those who don't know about cryptos yet probably won't be adopting anytime soon or have the ability to adopt.

Like you said, geek adoption, but how many geeks out there don't already know about bitcoin?

So the tens of millions of infrastructure investment and the countless thousands of hours of legal dicking around creating ETFs, regulations and exchanges are all for nothing? Hmm...

I meant for the short term next 3-6 months, and like I said, I am going out on a limb.  I was a former poker player, so I can take a loss with not much of a problem.  I think the next bubble would depend upon mass adoption.  With the state of bitcoin right now and its concerns, it is not fit for mass adoption at all. 

edit- but than again bubbles are a sign of its potential, so who knows.

Are my predictions coming to fruition?  I don't know.

The greatest bubble according to Money Never Sleeps is the "cambrian explosion".  Is bitcoin just another mega version of the tulips?  Perhaps.  The thing that worries me is all these new cryto's coming out.  Dogecoin, soccercoin, sexcoin... come on?  next thing you know there will be something called shitcoin

When you say things like this it makes me not take your predictions seriously. In fact, overall your logic seems to be fairly poorly educated. I think you need to study more factors before sharing your predictions.

[Xiaoxiao]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it won't happen this time around.  I think those that have the capability of adopting btc already have, and the rest are either against or don't know yet.  The dilemna is that those who don't know about cryptos yet probably won't be adopting anytime soon or have the ability to adopt.

Like you said, geek adoption, but how many geeks out there don't already know about bitcoin?

So the tens of millions of infrastructure investment and the countless thousands of hours of legal dicking around creating ETFs, regulations and exchanges are all for nothing? Hmm...

I meant for the short term next 3-6 months, and like I said, I am going out on a limb.  I was a former poker player, so I can take a loss with not much of a problem.  I think the next bubble would depend upon mass adoption.  With the state of bitcoin right now and its concerns, it is not fit for mass adoption at all. 

edit- but than again bubbles are a sign of its potential, so who knows.

Are my predictions coming to fruition?  I don't know.

The greatest bubble according to Money Never Sleeps is the "cambrian explosion".  Is bitcoin just another mega version of the tulips?  Perhaps.  The thing that worries me is all these new cryto's coming out.  Dogecoin, soccercoin, sexcoin... come on?  next thing you know there will be something called shitcoin

When you say things like this it makes me not take your predictions seriously. In fact, overall your logic seems to be fairly poorly educated. I think you need to study more factors before sharing your predictions.

I know what you mean, but what I meant was that all these crap coins sure makes bitcoin look good which is bullish, it is a sign people are into cryptos, but it may also cause inflation.

[Newbie1022]

What is your forecast for August ?

To be honest, I am contemplating shorting.  And the reason is because all this great news right now is a FRUITION of this past bubble, and a lot of inexperienced people are seeing it the other way around or seeing these new small good news to be causing a new bubble.  I'm still not sure what happened this last bubble, but it may have to do with some shady things going on with the chinese exchanges.  Market manipulation in China is unbelievable.

This is the smartest statement I've seen on this board.

My own guess is this, but it is projected way too far out and so many things can intervene and shake it up. I think we'll get some upwards price activity not for reason of good news, but because of a changing market infrastructure -- notably, more leveraging and more Wall Street bots. I think we are all going to be taken for a ride really soon and if you catch the peak you'll be sitting pretty but if you are a day late then you'll (not as in you, specifically, but as in people generally) be living out of a cardboard box.

I expect July 20 modest price movement for those behind the game trying to enter cheap, then late July rally that speeds up and then takes on a life of its own as disillusioned youth start to gamble with their financial aid dollars and then... the crash... cascading margin calls on overleveraged traders PLUS a big exchange falling. Hopefully I am wrong because that would be an existential crisis.

[Taxidermista]

The greatest bubble according to Money Never Sleeps is the "cambrian explosion".  Is bitcoin just another mega version of the tulips?  Perhaps.  The thing that worries me is all these new cryto's coming out.  Dogecoin, soccercoin, sexcoin... come on?  next thing you know there will be something called shitcoin

That was launched 9 months ago: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=307419.0

[Xiaoxiao]

The auction is an absolute bearish sign.  You don't beat the government's predicitons.

[maker88]

The auction is an absolute bearish sign.  You don't beat the government's predicitons.

the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.

[Xiaoxiao]

The auction is an absolute bearish sign.  You don't beat the government's predicitons.

the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.

Bitcoins is different than other seized assets.  Your example of the ferrari is a terrible analogy.

[Raystonn]

The auction is an absolute bearish sign.  You don't beat the government's predicitons.

the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.

Bitcoins is different than other seized assets.  Your example of the ferrari is a terrible analogy.

Nope.  The government is required to liquidate any assets it seizes.  They don't have a choice.  Therefore, the presence of the auction is neither positive, nor negative.  The outcome of the auction, however, turned out to be quite positive.

[kehtolo]

The auction is an absolute bearish sign.  You don't beat the government's predicitons.

the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.

Bitcoins is different than other seized assets.  Your example of the ferrari is a terrible analogy.

Nope.  The government is required to liquidate any assets it seizes.  They don't have a choice.  Therefore, the presence of the auction is neither positive, nor negative.  The outcome of the auction, however, turned out to be quite positive.

+1 -  the fact that all bidders were outbid, by a single entity, i now forget his name.. is bullish.
He was prepared to overpay and part with $18M (or so the rumours go) to get his hands on those coins.

[maker88]

The auction is an absolute bearish sign.  You don't beat the government's predicitons.

the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.

Bitcoins is different than other seized assets.  Your example of the ferrari is a terrible analogy.

they're both property. same would happen with real property as well. bitcoin isn't money to them. how is that a bad analogy? you're over here quoting gordon gecko like he's a real person, telling us to short bitcoin because its traded sideways for 2 months. i think ill take bad analogies over your bad advice any day.

[Xiaoxiao]

The auction is an absolute bearish sign.  You don't beat the government's predicitons.

the government wasn't predicting bitcoins demise by auctioning the coins, they just have no use for bitcoins and need to liquidate seized assets like they always do, and auctioning them was the best way to sell them en masse without crashing the price with huge market sells. if they seized one of those super rare 20 million plus ferraris one could speculate they'd make more in the long run by storing it until its value appreciated, but would they? no they'd sell it first chance they get cuz thats what they do.

Bitcoins is different than other seized assets.  Your example of the ferrari is a terrible analogy.

they're both property. same would happen with real property as well. bitcoin isn't money to them. how is that a bad analogy? you're over here quoting gordon gecko like he's a real person, telling us to short bitcoin because its traded sideways for 2 months. i think ill take bad analogies over your bad advice any day.

lol when did i tell you guys to short bitcoins.  I am on the fence, that is my whole point.

[Xiaoxiao]

What is your forecast for August ?

To be honest, I am contemplating shorting.  And the reason is because all this great news right now is a FRUITION of this past bubble, and a lot of inexperienced people are seeing it the other way around or seeing these new small good news to be causing a new bubble.  I'm still not sure what happened this last bubble, but it may have to do with some shady things going on with the chinese exchanges.  Market manipulation in China is unbelievable.

This is the smartest statement I've seen on this board.

My own guess is this, but it is projected way too far out and so many things can intervene and shake it up. I think we'll get some upwards price activity not for reason of good news, but because of a changing market infrastructure -- notably, more leveraging and more Wall Street bots. I think we are all going to be taken for a ride really soon and if you catch the peak you'll be sitting pretty but if you are a day late then you'll (not as in you, specifically, but as in people generally) be living out of a cardboard box.

I expect July 20 modest price movement for those behind the game trying to enter cheap, then late July rally that speeds up and then takes on a life of its own as disillusioned youth start to gamble with their financial aid dollars and then... the crash... cascading margin calls on overleveraged traders PLUS a big exchange falling. Hopefully I am wrong because that would be an existential crisis.

Who knows... but next bubble seems to be long ways ahead.


This week's forecast:

700-500

trade: none, 3rd week in a row no trades made.

[formula1]

What is your forecast for August ?

To be honest, I am contemplating shorting.  And the reason is because all this great news right now is a FRUITION of this past bubble, and a lot of inexperienced people are seeing it the other way around or seeing these new small good news to be causing a new bubble.  I'm still not sure what happened this last bubble, but it may have to do with some shady things going on with the chinese exchanges.  Market manipulation in China is unbelievable.

This is the smartest statement I've seen on this board.

My own guess is this, but it is projected way too far out and so many things can intervene and shake it up. I think we'll get some upwards price activity not for reason of good news, but because of a changing market infrastructure -- notably, more leveraging and more Wall Street bots. I think we are all going to be taken for a ride really soon and if you catch the peak you'll be sitting pretty but if you are a day late then you'll (not as in you, specifically, but as in people generally) be living out of a cardboard box.

I expect July 20 modest price movement for those behind the game trying to enter cheap, then late July rally that speeds up and then takes on a life of its own as disillusioned youth start to gamble with their financial aid dollars and then... the crash... cascading margin calls on overleveraged traders PLUS a big exchange falling. Hopefully I am wrong because that would be an existential crisis.

Who knows... but next bubble seems to be long ways ahead.


This week's forecast:

700-500

trade: none, 3rd week in a row no trades made.

Keep up the good work. Your analysis is sensible.

[Xiaoxiao]

This week's forecast:  590-700 btsp price

trades : none 4th week in a row.

What's up with this stability?  Everyone expecting a bubble, nothing happening.

[BitchicksHusband]

Mass adoption is at least 3 or 4 bubbles away

Mass adoption is a couple ETFs away.