Bitcoin Forum

this is it boys this is the start of the epic rise in value!

we are moving up to 8$ b4 the end of next week, mark my words

proudhon over here ...

marked.

lmao
proudhon can't help you now!

bitcoinia's failure is a symbol of bitcoins unyielding need to constantly better itself

You rang?..

so proudhon...

did you buy back under 5 yet?  ;)

proudhon has turned over a new leaf. 

i bring you, proudhon-The Bull.

I bought back.  It wasn't under $5, and it was a little while ago.  Also, I don't have a single coin in any of the exchanges as of this morning.  ;)

Still don't think we're going to the moon, or even out of earth's atmosphere, and moving my coins out of exchanges is for security more than anything else.

Very secret rocket?

It won't be such a secret when thousands of businessmen are holding the Bitcoin Magazine and start to buy bitcoins to see what happens. It also won't be very secret when Chinese members start buying Bitcoins to use Kronos for margin trading. Nor will it be very secret when the BitDex is finally mass manufactured and everyone is able to spend bitcoins from the palm of their hands, at universities, stores, etc.

2012 is going to be a very eventful year. I don't gamble myself, but if anyone was interested in buying bitcoins for less fiat and selling them for more fiat later, I'd say the next 60 days would be a good time to start the buying.

Unless we get someone hacked again :)

watching... and Bitcoin has been... Um... Boring.

This ^.^

The key question is who dares to buy >12 k BTC and push the price above 5.2 $.
This could trigger a big rally , unless some dark one pushes the price down again, which is getting less and less likely as he is swimming against the stream.

a 7% up move in 20 days is boring?

someone compound that for me on a yearly basis...

Pirate pays better.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gSStochzi2gMACDzi3gRSIzi4gBBWzvzl (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gSStochzi2gMACDzi3gRSIzi4gBBWzvzl)

<looks at bollinger width>

Once again, I actually agree - with both the price not going to the moon yet and not having deposits at the exchanges.

Another point - exchange volume may not be as indicative of the actual Bitcoin price as expected. I suspect that dark pools may actually be providing a very significant amount, if not the majority of liquidity, and could be trading at a somewhat higher rate than the exchanges.

I actually am.

*rises from a slumber of months*

Bitcoin has been a little too sticky to that 5 USD mark. It's about time for some movement. Personally, I think the fact that it has recovered from a series of problems and most people stayed sane during that time is a positive indicator. I wouldn't be surprised if it climbs up a dollar once people realize there's no real reason to trade around magical numbers.

The psychology of this is strange. I know quite a few people who somehow want to hold Bitcoins just in case, but don't actually buy them unless something is happening. Hard to tell how such people will act.

no it's happening, the climb to 8 will surprise a lot of you, what fallows will be spectacular

I intended to buy today, but I ended up getting a bunch of work and didn't have time to deposit my money.  I'm hoping to complete the bitinstant transaction tomorrow.  I had around 180 bitcoins in bitcoinica, and though I'm hoping they find their way back to me, I'm going to replace them in the meantime.

How fallow will it be?

Don't forget BitcoinWireless selling top up cards for bitcoins. Now you'll be able to send bitcoins to your family in Kenya, Tanzania or Afghanistan and they can buy M-Pesa with them at no surcharge. Good luck beating that, Western Union.

Wasn't able to complete the transaction today either.   :P

One who held the price within $5.15 had run out of coins (~36K in total). To be frank - I had never seen such buy pressure up to date. Anyone a day+ off who sells at their mark would bite his/her nose off. $7.2 at least, unless some idiot dumps 30k+ BTC without wanting to get the best price out of them (there are such plonkers – you’d be surprised).

I agree with the rough 8 USD/BTC target price, but I don't think a month is enough time for it to get there stably... I think it'll be more August-October time frame.

-bgc

once we get going, its a matter of days to get to 8

I believe the we have just started the run up.

In a few days it will be clearly spelled out for everyone to see, "Moving Up"

5.20 will look cheep on Sunday  ;)

+1  :D

Sloooooooooow down there.

yyyyyeaahhh... Looking a lot like that euphoria phase of that investor emotion cycle

That's it folks, $5.19 is the top.  This is the end of the bull run.

are you blind?

I can see the bid walls pilling up around $5... what I cant see is why they wouldn't just go to market and spike the price...

why would u do that when u know u have a bunch of dummies around here who will sell to u at the bid?

For what it's worth, we've just had the highest transaction volume of 2012 in USD today:
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd (http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd)

I believe we're somewhere between "optimism" and "excitement" right now. Very far from euphoria. It's a very interesting situation though.

how bout just good 'ol "sittin on the edge of our seats"?

Something big is bound to happen in this situation. I can feel it.

there's no question someone is going to pull the trigger eventually.

Just remember one simple trading secret for success.....

Sell when "they" are buying.

Buy when "they" are selling.

Best to realize gains instead of risky speculative gains.

Chart seems to have turned into an 'L' shape...

whoa holy shit 5.22??

stay clam everyone

please organize yourselves in a single file,
we have a limited amount of bitcoins,
but please do not panic they are dividable up to 8 decimal places.


 :D

It's amusing that what everyone's excited about right now is a move that a year ago would have been a mere bouncing around within the spread.

Someone is seriously trying to keep the price from moving up and losing $100ks in the process. I fail to see the agenda. With such volume it is better to sell/buy marginally and have at least minimal profit to use later then trade at a loss trying to scare the market with stupid ask walls.

How do you know they're losing $100ks?

It's going up.... he just KNOWS it.

With bitcoinica gone, there is no reason to scare the price lower with ask walls because there is no means to profit from an induced panic. If I were you, I would be a little more concerned about these bid walls that are not exactly buying. If anything, 'someone' is keeping the price from moving down...for now. Something to keep in mind.

Also, from looking at the charts, there is a very strong reason why the price is not surging higher right now ;)

Even if we have highest historical December-like volume and all negative it is still not sufficient to push the price down enough to stop current upward momentum. I’m not saying that it cannot happen, just that it is highly unlikely. There is no point to swim against the current in such circumstances unless you can explain what is to gain from not selling less/higher.

Don't believe the depth chart.  Sometimes it's a trap.

I'm stating to think "fake walls" are a thing of the past

I'm starting to question your position, but I would welcome the outcome if you are right.

Waveaddict: You’ll need to explain that to those people who actually buy/move the price up first. If you can/care. And there is an equal argument against those ask walls moving up without actually selling.

Charts are just that. As long as they look like that there is always enough motivation to risk buying up.

marked

now I'm thinking bear trap,
5,20 REALLY wants to be sold into

It is likely he has more powder.  I imagine his reaction would depend on how it went down.

I like your profile picture!  :D

Isn't it time for some great manipulator to take a huge dump?

I wish!

this would send the price skyrocketing  ;)

 ;D

Cheers, been a while since I checked up on ole RawDog, I'd say he's been a bit glum about the collapse in Silver  :P

So.. $8 or no?

I'm no economist or speculator, just a simple miner  :P

Oh I see.. we're in the bearish trap stage of the epic price bubble.  ;D

if only.

i personally do not find it seductive to sell into 5.20 wall.
Will not support it either.

Yes looks like it's stuck at $5.20-5.27

Not going anywhere.  Might as well wait for the real price increase in December, since there is no reason for the price to really go up unless demand overtakes the daily inflation of bitcoin.

It's sunday. Tomorrow, people will transfer money into the exchanges again.

Forget about the effect of the December change from 50 BTC to 25 BTC as price predictor. This is already priced in as it is public knowledge.

In 5 hours it will be 8 am on Monday in Tokyo.

This goes only for hoarders and speculators, and not for real demand as a currency, which some say is also the cause for the recent stability and slight increase.

Let the party begin :)

~2 hours to go

It's also public knowledge that the price will reduce to 12.5 BTC, to 6.25 BTC, etc.  Would you say this is also priced in?

I would say that is priced in as much as the 50->25.  You either know the story or you don't.  The 50->25 may catch some by surprise since you don't have to understand these details to actually use bitcoin, but after a few halvings people will know what's up and it will be completely priced in by the time it happens.

i think each mining reward drop will be fully priced in 6 - 12 months After its actually happens... its effect will be felt gradually

The reward drop is definitely not fully priced in yet. In part it is, of course, but not fully. It will become priced in once the reward drop starts to be the #1 talking point in the community. So perhaps a couple of months before the drop. Late Summer at the earliest, probably early Autumn.

More than anything, the reward drop is going to affect miners. Who cares if you have a bunch of BTC you're holding and suddenly they're not created as quickly? But if you're out digging for gold and finding 1BTC per day for a year and suddenly you start to find 0.5BTC per day, your potential to earn money after paying for electricity just got killed. I suspect we will see network hash rate take a major dive following the drop -- I know I'll be shutting down unless price goes up or the number of people mining drops substantially (e.g. difficulty goes down).

5.62 isn't quite $8...

won't this open the network to be easily taken over by a 51% attack:S

Probably not.

Spain to Request EU Bank Aid Soon: ECB Official (http://www.cnbc.com/id/47732668) (over the weekend)

5.62 was good enough for me to start selling. I decided to let 20 BTC go and collect the USD.
I will keep selling as the price goes up. Naturally I am a miner but I have held off selling for a
while in anticipation of this type of rise.

how many coins you got?

*dr evil* One hundred billion!!!

So 476190.476% of all the bitcoins there will ever be...

well i called this rally on may 29th ~5.10$/BTC
and its not over yet, my prediction still has till sunday to be proven false   ;)

New supply halves and demand stays the same (maybe even increases with the reward drop publicity). I say the price will go up at that time...but will it double?

CampBX just shot to $7.24/BTC on low volume.

WTF?  Who spent that much on coins they could have bought for so much less?

Low volume.

2 bitcoins sold for US$ 7.24 inside US.

42 BTC for US$ 5.99 each.

And 16.55 BTC for US$ 6.99.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940.3333339999999&m=cbxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=30&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

still kinda funny

Still, even considering the fees of transferring money around, he could have gotten a much better deal.

Or we can call the obvious now.  We've reached a top, and at the very least the market is going to rest for a while, but I suspect we're going to see more people sell and take profits because the liquidity is there.

Have you bought in yet?

Oh, proudhon's been holding for a while now.

:)

notme is right.  I put all the money I had in the various exchanges back into bitcoin some time ago.  Most of it is in offline wallets.  I just bought 40 more BTCs on MtGox yesterday to play with at GLBSE.  I haven't done anything with GLBSE and decided it was time to take a look.

I think so, then higher yet and then collapse back down to the doubling. Something like that anyway.

SolidCon proved this to be true.

I am cashing out at $10 for sure !

I'll cash out right around the high of the next 12 months - about $7.

With all the FUD brought about by the reward change I would expect much higher than that.

Careful, bears tend to hibernate once a year.

Barring some cataclysmic event like failure of SHA, either the previous high of ~USD$30/BTC will be reached by this time next year, or $100/BTC will be broken by the end of 2013.

I very strongly doubt that.  The market is much more mature than that.  By that I mean that there will be too much profit taking as the price goes up this time around, which will keep the price down.  I suspect it will be many, many years before bitcoin reaches the previous high.  I don't think what I'm saying is negative; I did at one time, but now I believe very slow growth is a good thing.

We can assume the market is rational. Therefore, if the price is currently 5.50 $ USD, then the probability of a cataclysmic event will be almost 95%.

It's fine to be slightly bullish: assuming a cataclysmic event has a 5% chance in the next year, we can get to $6 without irrationality. But at this point, the only reason for $100 is irrationality.

Since when has this been a valid economic assumption?

Since Bitcoin!  :D

Two words: Greed. Fear.

I just did a thing with my hand to trace an exponential path on blockchain.info's market cap graph for all time and I get a market cap of about $150M a year from now = $14-15.

Bitcoin technical analysis: 100% backed by hand traced log chart trend lines!

If that's your expected price, act on it. It should be rational to use all your free income and savings on that, with an expected interest rate of almost 200% per annum.

Exactly!  Lately lots of people have been talking as if the price is very likely to go into the double digits in the next year, but there's very little evidence of anyone acting like that in the market.  I'm speculating that the price will go up in the next year, but not by that much; and I still think a year from now we'll be in the single digits.  I am buying smallish amounts every few weeks ($200-$300 worth), and that's because I do expect the price to break $6 in the next year, and that's still an exceptional return.  But again, if you sincerely believe that there's a strong chance that the price will be in the double digits a year from now, then take out second mortgage on your house.

While I agree that it would be desirable to have steady growth, that isn't likely at all for the mere fact that Bitcoin is presently at the scale of a sparrow flying through a hurricane. It will be buffeted heavily during the foreseeable future.

Of course it's easy to expect profit-taking to keep the price in check, because you're looking at growth from within the Bitcoin economy. For the next several years, 'growth' will be a marginal impact. External influence, especially the transfer of wealth which is occurring now and can bee seen with capital depositing excess during the ebb and flow of funds, will be a far greater factor than the Bitcoin economy in isolation.

To rephrase: it is not the Bitcoin economy that is experiencing phenomenal growth (on a scale that matters); it is traditional economies that are contracting, resulting in capital seeking any out that it can find. As this happens, Bitcoin will simply be recognized more often as a better alternative than yet another poorly-managed government currency.

Maturity of a market can only do so much when it is completely overwhelmed. Bitcoin is minuscule compared to many of the smallest companies that are publicly traded on traditional stock exchanges. Should an established currency market begin utilizing Bitcoin, no amount of maturity will prevent disruption.

I don't see any evidence of a current movement of transferring wealth into bitcoin.  Nor do I expect to see bitcoin recognized as a good alternative by the wider community over the next few years.

looks like you just entered the depression mode

http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/clip_image002_thumb6.jpg

...while the rest is in "Hope" mode  :D

haha  :P

Maybe you aren't looking (http://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/view/20557/security-expert-discovers-bitcoin-mining-botnet/)...

This transfer of wealth doesn't have to happen intentionally, although it is quite evidently taking place (http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/08/euro-fears-boost-virtual-currency-bitcoin/) at an awareness fringe that gold held prior to 2007. Instead, the 'unconscious' transfer is quite capable of spurring major change by itself.

An example:

A Bitcoin neophyte decides to try this thing he's heard about, so he buys USD$10 worth on an exchange. He buys something for $8.50 and thinks it's kind of interesting. Unless he is completely against Bitcoin, and obsessive about having every penny accounted for, he may simply leave the remaining $1.50 worth of bitcoins at the exchange or in his wallet.

Each wave of new interest that comes along is likely to leave some small amount, either without realizing it or with the thought that it might be used again at some later date. Since it's nearly impossible to realistically gauge new interest in the Bitcoin environment, we can only speculate. It's still reasonable to assume this does happen to some degree.

If 1% of each new wave leaves transfer residue, that accumulates over time. Let's assume that each individual in a wave of new interest buys 1 BTC (this isn't too accurate, since price rise will reduce the amount bought). We'll start at 1,000 individuals for the first wave and increase it by an order of magnitude for each new wave. In addition, we'll assume that 1% of deposits remain as transfer residue.

Wave	Individuals	XResidue	Aggregate
1	1,000	10	10
2	10,000	100	110
3	100,000	1,000	1,110
4	1,000,000	10,000	11,110

It's easy to see how a geometric (viral) wave propagation can rapidly expand the magnitude of wealth transfer - and this isn't even including whales (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_roller) or the effects from several other dynamics, especially capital controls.

This data was obtain using a highly sofiscated piece of C++


outputs:

http://s15.postimage.org/barolfy17/bitcoin1.png

 :D

Um...data from the future?

So instead of using our time machine for bitcoin prices, how about some heads up to skynet?

ok
heads up skynet will soon take over!

You WILL be TERMINATED!

all your bitcoins are belong to us

Hmmm... well if there is one thing I can do...

https://i.imgur.com/FwZS5.gif

Skynet isn't getting my coins.

is that a really big bitcoin around his neck?

Yep, casascius made it special for him.