are you all watching?

[proudhon]

New supply halves and demand stays the same (maybe even increases with the reward drop publicity). I say the price will go up at that time...but will it double?

I think so, then higher yet and then collapse back down to the doubling. Something like that anyway.

SolidCon proved this to be true.

I am cashing out at $10 for sure !

I'll cash out right around the high of the next 12 months - about $7.

[bulanula]

New supply halves and demand stays the same (maybe even increases with the reward drop publicity). I say the price will go up at that time...but will it double?

I think so, then higher yet and then collapse back down to the doubling. Something like that anyway.

SolidCon proved this to be true.

I am cashing out at $10 for sure !

I'll cash out right around the high of the next 12 months - about $7.

With all the FUD brought about by the reward change I would expect much higher than that.

[beckspace]

I'll cash out right around the high of the next 12 months - about $7.

Careful, bears tend to hibernate once a year.

[miscreanity]

Barring some cataclysmic event like failure of SHA, either the previous high of ~USD$30/BTC will be reached by this time next year, or $100/BTC will be broken by the end of 2013.

[proudhon]

Barring some cataclysmic event like failure of SHA, either the previous high of ~USD$30/BTC will be reached by this time next year, or $100/BTC will be broken by the end of 2013.

I very strongly doubt that.  The market is much more mature than that.  By that I mean that there will be too much profit taking as the price goes up this time around, which will keep the price down.  I suspect it will be many, many years before bitcoin reaches the previous high.  I don't think what I'm saying is negative; I did at one time, but now I believe very slow growth is a good thing.

[dree12]

Barring some cataclysmic event like failure of SHA, either the previous high of ~USD$30/BTC will be reached by this time next year, or $100/BTC will be broken by the end of 2013.

We can assume the market is rational. Therefore, if the price is currently 5.50 $ USD, then the probability of a cataclysmic event will be almost 95%.

It's fine to be slightly bullish: assuming a cataclysmic event has a 5% chance in the next year, we can get to $6 without irrationality. But at this point, the only reason for $100 is irrationality.

[notme]

We can assume the market is rational.

Since when has this been a valid economic assumption?

[adamstgBit]

We can assume the market is rational.

Since when has this been a valid economic assumption?

Since Bitcoin! 

[weex]

We can assume the market is rational.

Two words: Greed. Fear.

I just did a thing with my hand to trace an exponential path on blockchain.info's market cap graph for all time and I get a market cap of about $150M a year from now = $14-15.

[ineededausername]

We can assume the market is rational.

Two words: Greed. Fear.

I just did a thing with my hand to trace an exponential path on blockchain.info's market cap graph for all time and I get a market cap of about $150M a year from now = $14-15.

Bitcoin technical analysis: 100% backed by hand traced log chart trend lines!

[dree12]

We can assume the market is rational.

Two words: Greed. Fear.

I just did a thing with my hand to trace an exponential path on blockchain.info's market cap graph for all time and I get a market cap of about $150M a year from now = $14-15.

If that's your expected price, act on it. It should be rational to use all your free income and savings on that, with an expected interest rate of almost 200% per annum.

[proudhon]

We can assume the market is rational.

Two words: Greed. Fear.

I just did a thing with my hand to trace an exponential path on blockchain.info's market cap graph for all time and I get a market cap of about $150M a year from now = $14-15.

If that's your expected price, act on it. It should be rational to use all your free income and savings on that, with an expected interest rate of almost 200% per annum.

Exactly!  Lately lots of people have been talking as if the price is very likely to go into the double digits in the next year, but there's very little evidence of anyone acting like that in the market.  I'm speculating that the price will go up in the next year, but not by that much; and I still think a year from now we'll be in the single digits.  I am buying smallish amounts every few weeks ($200-$300 worth), and that's because I do expect the price to break $6 in the next year, and that's still an exceptional return.  But again, if you sincerely believe that there's a strong chance that the price will be in the double digits a year from now, then take out second mortgage on your house.

[miscreanity]

Barring some cataclysmic event like failure of SHA, either the previous high of ~USD$30/BTC will be reached by this time next year, or $100/BTC will be broken by the end of 2013.

I very strongly doubt that.  The market is much more mature than that.  By that I mean that there will be too much profit taking as the price goes up this time around, which will keep the price down.  I suspect it will be many, many years before bitcoin reaches the previous high.  I don't think what I'm saying is negative; I did at one time, but now I believe very slow growth is a good thing.

While I agree that it would be desirable to have steady growth, that isn't likely at all for the mere fact that Bitcoin is presently at the scale of a sparrow flying through a hurricane. It will be buffeted heavily during the foreseeable future.

Of course it's easy to expect profit-taking to keep the price in check, because you're looking at growth from within the Bitcoin economy. For the next several years, 'growth' will be a marginal impact. External influence, especially the transfer of wealth which is occurring now and can bee seen with capital depositing excess during the ebb and flow of funds, will be a far greater factor than the Bitcoin economy in isolation.

To rephrase: it is not the Bitcoin economy that is experiencing phenomenal growth (on a scale that matters); it is traditional economies that are contracting, resulting in capital seeking any out that it can find. As this happens, Bitcoin will simply be recognized more often as a better alternative than yet another poorly-managed government currency.

Maturity of a market can only do so much when it is completely overwhelmed. Bitcoin is minuscule compared to many of the smallest companies that are publicly traded on traditional stock exchanges. Should an established currency market begin utilizing Bitcoin, no amount of maturity will prevent disruption.

[proudhon]

Of course it's easy to expect profit-taking to keep the price in check, because you're looking at growth from within the Bitcoin economy. For the next several years, 'growth' will be a marginal impact. External influence, especially the transfer of wealth which is occurring now and can bee seen with capital depositing excess during the ebb and flow of funds, will be a far greater factor than the Bitcoin economy in isolation.

I don't see any evidence of a current movement of transferring wealth into bitcoin.  Nor do I expect to see bitcoin recognized as a good alternative by the wider community over the next few years.

[cloon]

looks like you just entered the depression mode

[herzmeister]

...while the rest is in "Hope" mode 

[cloon]

...while the rest is in "Hope" mode 

haha 

[miscreanity]

I don't see any evidence of a current movement of transferring wealth into bitcoin.  Nor do I expect to see bitcoin recognized as a good alternative by the wider community over the next few years.

Maybe you aren't looking...

This transfer of wealth doesn't have to happen intentionally, although it is quite evidently taking place at an awareness fringe that gold held prior to 2007. Instead, the 'unconscious' transfer is quite capable of spurring major change by itself.

An example:

A Bitcoin neophyte decides to try this thing he's heard about, so he buys USD$10 worth on an exchange. He buys something for $8.50 and thinks it's kind of interesting. Unless he is completely against Bitcoin, and obsessive about having every penny accounted for, he may simply leave the remaining $1.50 worth of bitcoins at the exchange or in his wallet.

Each wave of new interest that comes along is likely to leave some small amount, either without realizing it or with the thought that it might be used again at some later date. Since it's nearly impossible to realistically gauge new interest in the Bitcoin environment, we can only speculate. It's still reasonable to assume this does happen to some degree.

If 1% of each new wave leaves transfer residue, that accumulates over time. Let's assume that each individual in a wave of new interest buys 1 BTC (this isn't too accurate, since price rise will reduce the amount bought). We'll start at 1,000 individuals for the first wave and increase it by an order of magnitude for each new wave. In addition, we'll assume that 1% of deposits remain as transfer residue.

Wave	Individuals	XResidue	Aggregate
1	1,000	10	10
2	10,000	100	110
3	100,000	1,000	1,110
4	1,000,000	10,000	11,110

It's easy to see how a geometric (viral) wave propagation can rapidly expand the magnitude of wealth transfer - and this isn't even including whales or the effects from several other dynamics, especially capital controls.

[adamstgBit]

This data was obtain using a highly sofiscated piece of C++

Code:

#include "Future.h"

int main
{
 BTC::SetDate(3294857023485);
 BTC::DrawChart();
}

outputs:



 

[the joint]

Um...data from the future?