Bitcoin Forum

When do you predict the Winklevoss' ETF will be available?

What effect will this have on price? Do you think it will be priced in by then?

I assume this will happen before their Gemini exchange is open.

update: Obviously the Gemini exchange did open.  Still waiting on the ETF.

I predict January 2016.

The ETF will only be approved with a top-nutch exchange, pretty cool from the twins that they funded it from there own money.

Gemini will go online q1, give it 6 months to 1 year before the ETF will be launched.

Pretty sure the price will go up.

Just a thought...

I do not think they would be going forward with Gemini and having so many "dog-pile" into it, if they did not have a very good indication by the insiders and that famous lawyer lady of success.

In other words, I think they are almost certain that the ETF will be approved.

I do not have any clue about timing (so I am not answering your question), but I just want to add that I am optimistic when the prices of BTC stay relatively low with this ETF looming.   I really hope the ETF is available when the BTC price is depressed - I will be dumping in some retirement $$ that is limited to only those Funds that are SEC secured and available on the Wall Street Exchanges.  The lower the BTC price, the more coins (or ETF equivalent pieces of paper) I will own.

Warning - as you asked " will it be priced in by then?" -   I is very possible that the price will shoot up on the rumor and prior to ETF opening, then everyone will sell on the event.  Seems to be the way we roll in BTC land.  

I'm still licking wounds from a couple weeks ago when the price looked to be going exponential (at the moment I viewed it).  I purchased at market price in a full panic....  I could not have bought it at a higher price - it really sucked.

I think this is key. Most people think "Wall Street people will be getting into Bitcoin". But the big deal is all of us sitting here with our 401k filled with dollar denominated stocks when we do not have much confidence in the dollar. It is one thing to say you may some day start saving 5% of your savings towards Bitcoin. It is another to take 5% of your $100k+ 401k and move it to the Bitcoin ETF.

My 401k already consists mainly of foreign investment funds, that is how much confidence I have in our debt laden dollar. A Bitcoin ETF will be an even better place for some of my retirement.

Will the ETF only be for US resident big holders? How about Gemini, will that allow traders from outside the US? I wonder if it will do a Coinbase and only allow US traders to begin with.

Maybe it will be a short-btc etf  :P

It's a great thing to have something this big looming on the horizon. This is a signal to keep setting aside money every paycheck to keep building your stake in Bitcoin. Great times ahead.

Got some more Gemini/ETF food for you!

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/19319/look-nasdaq-comes-winklevoss-gemini-exchange/

There is no ETA but it sounds like it could be getting close, drafts and revisions have been made, soon it is decision time...

~2017

I think Gemini is probably something the SEC would very much like to see, as in, they were told they needed a licensed, bonded exchange with expertly-implemented security best practices before approval would be imminent.

I do wonder why people get nervous at the idea of "Wall Street" getting into Bitcoin. Wall Street is a collection of investors, investment related businesses, hedge funds, trading desks, etc. They generally will not be concerned with manipulating the market, rather they will want customers to invest in their crypto portfolios and services. It's a win for Bitcoin. The trading will be left to large pocketed individuals and groups, and probably many of the whales you see today will still be active. The best traders now will be the professional market makers of the future.

I think the Winklevoss' ETF will be available ~February of 2016, or at least I hope. I don't think the price will go [up] in theory the price should go up after the next block reward halving.

Didn't someone said Q1 2015?

That would have been the case had they not needed to update their submission last summer and then again in January.

Last interview they said Q1 indeed

I thought it would have been out early February. looks not.

take whatever date they give, and add at least 2 years.

So I guess maybe by 2017 or after

Does the clock get reset back to zero each time they update their submission? I remember they made some big change a month or two ago. Did they change its proposed location out of New York?

Interview that was posted yesterday indicated they are going for a Q1 launch for Gemini. No ETA on the ETF was mentioned IIRC.

I rule out any effect in 2015. 2016 yet remains to be seen. But let's get the final product delivered first.

My companies puts $2 for every $1 I put into my 401K up to 5% of my total income, then it tapers down up to 10% of total income. I wonder if I will be able to roll this over into the ETF?

After 25 years of service, once I retire, my company also provides 40% of my highest year salary for 25 years or until death, whichever comes first. I am willing to put my entire 401K into the ETF knowing I will still be getting a decent check every month once retired.

Interesting and should be a nice addition to the looming ETF on the horizon. You'll be pleased at the returns as you well know.

http://cdn4.benzinga.com/files/imagecache/story_image_680x375C/images/story/2012/187749257.jpg

Stop sitting around, and make it happen!  :'(

It will be almost certainly after Gemini. As someone said, they pointed Q1 as a target. Plus it already has a website and a precedent (coinbase lunar thingee). Seems easier to start.

I don't really know. It's really hard to tell from the lack if practically any news. I think it is priced in I a degree, or at least may give us another Coinbase Lunar crash event. Bitcoin is too erratic at these prices!!!

hey, we're less than 6 weeks away from the end of the first quarter.  where do you get your intel?

http://www.coindesk.com/winklevoss-brothers-gemini-nasdaq-bitcoin/

There were conflicting statements on the launching date but I hope it can be approved by early of 2016. On the effect on price, I expect it to be positive. Though investors are not directly getting into bitcoin but any investment into traded fund related to bitcoin  is still more or less similar like what you are investing into bitcoin.

ETF is so hyped right now like it's the only hope btc has to go up... if that doesn't work I don't even want to imagine what could happen.

Maybe the bitcoin will dead //sarcasm,

However the another way could be the "halving", I think after the next block reward halving the price will go up (at least a little bit). I don't see another way to the "rise" of the bitcoin price, this time China can't help.

Reward halving is going to help, but price will start to go up running up to the halving and remain around the same after.

The ETF and Gemini are things bitcoin needs to become more stable in the future. I am not sure the Gemini will have much effect on the demand/price, it is an exchange.

It will affect a pump as a reason :D

I see it more as a war of news that has the most influence on the BTC price, in the last year or so. On hand you have negative news: exchange hacked, stolen coins, coins coming from illegal businesses, etc. On the positive side you have: ETF story, halving, Chinese investors, etc. Pretty much all the same arguments since quite long time. Rinse and repeat.   

My guess as to ETF going live?

Last quarter of 2016 or 1st quarter of 2017 if ever.  Bitlicense baby...oh yeah!

In BTCland always happen the imprevisible.

Maybe it won´t be approved... who knows.

Yes 2016 will be interesting, don't forget that we still have another auction after this one announced today, there are still those Karpeles coins noone knows about and Australia seizured another big bunch that will sooner or later auctioned too, so yeah another year of sidelines and bears. All hope is for the next year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkwKqD9ylLo&t=0m10s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkwKqD9ylLo&t=0m10s)

Skimming off the water

In reality, there's only ever going to be 21 Million of these things.  Even at $1,000 a coin, that's only $21 Billion worth of Bitcoins.  Drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things.  Last I heard there were at least a quadrillion dollars worth of derivatives.

Therefore, I see the "over supply" problem as a bit of an illusion.  Everyone knows there's a hard cap, but it's rarely discussed in the context of "More coins were stolen and might be dumped on the market."  It's like 21 Million Elephants in the room.  The price can't go down or sideways forever; the bears are pretty much only skimming off the water before the next launch at this point

http://www.etftrends.com/2015/02/winklevoss-twins-talk-bitcoin-innovation-gemini-exchange/

I would say Gemini in next month or two, ETF 4-5 months.

Yeah, the New York regulator was saying the BitLicense was due in the near future and I remember hearing the winks say that the last quarter of this year is when they're forecasted for unveiling the ETF or exchange or both. I imagine they're both fine tuning things are probably mostly ready to go, just waiting on the regs so they can 'do things right'. No point in rushing the inevitable and showing themselves to be anything but a responsible and respectable outfit where old and new big money can gracefully enter the Bitcoin market. It's not like you wanted to start something like this last year even if everything was in order.

uhmm.. nothing.  no one really cares about the etf.  people will be buying shares in the twins btc not everyone else's.

Each share of the ETF represents X amount of bitcoins. Once the shares are sold and the ETF becomes a success, the Winklevii will then buy more bitcoin in order to produce more shares, just like every IPO. As the price rises from the buying of the coins the shares will also increase in price.

[1] - in case you hadn't noticed, that's how all ETFs work

[2] - what you actually mean is that "no one [in the bitcoin world] really cares about the etf", but no one [in the real world] cares what bitcoiners think.

"Bitcoiners" are not the ETF's intended market, Wall Street investors are and they're not interested in trading the underlying goods directly - whether it be gold, oil, cattle or bitcoins.

They want paper.

Well, maybe many around here don't care about it as in wanting to use it, but certainly on the Speculation sub forum we care about bitcoin's price... and happening or not, the ETF will have an impact in the price, even if temporarily.

Yes the 2015 hasn't begun in a "good way", too much "hack" and too much lies. I don't know if the ETF will rise the bitcoin price but I'm still believing in this technology (or better killer app) and its name is bitcoin.

In my opinion those occurrences have mostly been necessary for Bitcoin to grow up - 'growing pains' so to say. We need to get rid of illicit and scammy exchanges rather sooner than later if we want Bitcoin to be taken seriously. It's a good thing gox went down a year ago and it's a good thing Stamp has learned to improve their exchange the medium-hard way. They won't be making the same mistake again!

This is correct, survival of the fittest contributes to overall strength of the infrastructure.

The Gemini exchange isn't being set up as a SEC-regulated exchange. It's just another proposed exchange operating with a money-transfer license.

The ETF is a completely separate deal. That needs SEC approval.

Q1 is already gone.

The Winklevoss twins are getting into acting. They are playing themselves on the upcoming season of Silicon Valley:
http://www.people.com/article/winklevoss-twins-silicon-valley-hbo-season-2-cameo-tyler-winklevoss-cameron-winklevoss
That is premiering on April 12, so they have presumably been busy with that.

A scan of recent news also shows that Cameron is spending some time courting a very attractive Brazilian model:
http://pagesix.com/2015/03/23/cameron-winklevoss-shows-off-his-brazilian-model-girlfriend/

So it seems they are quite busy. I would imagine they'll start focusing on Gemini and COIN when:

a) the NYDFS finalizes the Bitlicense
b) the SEC  blows some dust off the ETF application

They have no control over either.

Agreed that they are just waiting on regulators and law makers.
Also, don't give her your privatekeys Cameron!! She'll only wants you for your bitcoins! :p

The bear market has been rough to the twins.

They've stooped as low as renting out their home.  :-\

http://www.amlu.com/2015/04/05/winklevoss-twins-swanky-l-a-mansion-now-for-rent/ (http://www.amlu.com/2015/04/05/winklevoss-twins-swanky-l-a-mansion-now-for-rent/)

This ETF's not going to pay for itself.

i am thinking the ETF may come at the end of 2015 or even early 2016. But i dont know for sure. Im also not sure if it will affect the price of BTC. I guess we will have to wait and see :)

Bitlicense should be ready at this point, maybe before the summer we will have something solid

Remember, the Winkelvoss ETF is a dump. They bought a lot of Bitcoins a long time ago.  The ETF is a way for them to sell without crashing the price.

Of course, in retrospect they would have done better if they'd just sold off their Bitcoins back in 2014.

They will sell shares and not btc directly. Not really a dump... just smart way to make more money on your existing btc.

There not looking to dump.  They want to to be billionaires in 20 years.  There etf will be buying btc as people buy shares. 

Yea comment period ended 2 weeks ago so give them a few months to come up with something official. That's what the winkies are waiting for is more regulation.

It's actually quite nonsensical to assume that they are creating an ETF, listing it on a major stock exchange, only to get rid of their coins at a loss. Doesn't make any sense.

They bought there coins in single digits.  But I agree there not doing all this just to dump coins.

Someone said they bought from Mt.Gox and never paid them

yeah ,they did a deal with Karpeles

he sold a ton of Bitcoin off exchange to all sorts

no wonder the books didn't add up  ;D

Any decent amount of institutional money that comes into the game when the ETF starts will push the price higher.

New instagram account for gemini:

https://instagram.com/geminidotcom/ (https://instagram.com/geminidotcom/)

Could be kind of bullish, I've had a look at it, only 2 pics on it so far, hasn't got many followers.
I decided not to follow it, anonymity & all that.
I'm hopeful they'll announce it's been approved/regulated soon, we could really do with the price getting a kick up the arse to get it moving upwards again.
To the moon my friends :D

New post on Friday:

 

https://i.imgur.com/ejvKEKG.jpg?1


Why post this? Could this have a hidden meaning -- a donut is also a symbol for zero. If Friday was day zero then Gemini could launch tomorrow.  ;) 

don't expect something great on the summer, usually stuff like this are launched at september/october, in the autumn, when everyone is done with their vacation

the summer will remain a hot place for stagnation

i hope this new exchange will not just bring a momentary bubble that then will fall again to the current price, or we are doing nothing

btw this will be an exchange like bitstamp, or there are some new features into it?

I assume it will be fully insured against hacks, but I don't know for sure. If it's going to be linked to the ETF in the future it's unlikely they will launch it without insurance.

Them be some fancy donuts!
I agree I think it could be a hidden message, no purpose on posting this unless Tyler or Cameron accidentally thought they were logged in on their personal account and wanted to post a picture of the gourmet donuts they were being served. I'm thinking it's a sign... 4 days until launch? THey posted it on the 5th so that would mean they are launching Wednesday the 9th. They could also explain the mini pump we saw today, for those that have inside info.

Do you even NYC startup hipster broh?

Either that or they are projecting 4 0s - donuts on the end of the price w/ that post (aka $2300) soon after their operations get up and running.

ETF certainly have a large impact on the markets ( and inevitable large increase in price) renewed interest in bitcoin is that I'm seeing

I still think Gemini may be bigger than expected, there's a lot of people worried with the exchanges we got until now.. then again, I don't leave my bitcoins on exchanges. I have a wallet on my phone for pocket money, and a paper cold storage wallet. As the saying goes, "if you don't have the keys, you don't own the bitcoins". ;)

Well they said today on the live stream that Gemini is only "weeks" away and that they are on the two yard line. So the launch of Gemini appears to be coming very soon. When they were asked about the ETF they said that they can't speak about it per SEC rules. This is all good news IMO.

I think they were speaking in vague terms with an example thrown in. Compared to how long they have been setting it up (~2 years), what's another 3-4 months? It is 2 yard line, but only relative to how long real money plays its game (in months and years, not days or hours). Gemini in other words can happen within a month, or in 3-4 months during fall.

Let me remind you they did not set a specific date for gemini launch (even though they previously stated no later than march 2015, which have not come to pass).


SEC and FINCEN have still yet to finish dealing with the twins regarding regulations, and if/when they receive the greenlight, they still have to figure out on THEIR end how they have completely complied with the regulations, etc etc all the details.


All I am saying is, months will still have to pass before gemini is realized. Even then, gemini is still one more regulated exchange along with coinbase, itbit, etc. The real kicker is the ETF, and they have more or less said no eft before gemini, and possibly LONG after since it is much more complicated process.


Take it easy, nothing new was revealed. Same place, same as always.

The ETF is the game changer I agree. But I disagree regarding Gemini. I think Gemini will be bigger than any of the other "regulated exchanged", and that includes the ones that think they are legit, but are not "coinbase". I wouldn't be surprised if we see Gemini launch before the end of June.

My take is, don't be surprised if it is put off until fall of 2015. They were specific about gemini launching by late march 2015 at the latest and that did not come to pass, so I am not holding my breath and playing it safe.

Referring to the OP - ETA for Gemini opening, I'm not sure, it's like the Bitlicense, these things seem to drag on forever. I'm hoping it's announced by the end of 2015.
Is that too much to hope for, I hope not.
I have high hopes that Gemini will do positive things for the price of bitcoin, we're desperate for something to push us in the right direction.

Didnt see the live stream yesterday did anyone manage to record it? reports indicate they didnt talk about the ETF hmmm and more about rowing and other general stuff lol

ETF is a joke, doesn't make sense to still talk about it. Anyway if it will ever hit, we will be at sub 100 by then. Too much hype for everything, no substance in the end.

it's not that it is a joke, the problem is that i can't understand what they are waiting for, when the bitlicence is done and they are free to initiate their exchange at least, they are still far away even on that regard

are they facing tech problem or it is something else, they should at least say saomething about it

No tech problem, just legal problem. They need to get approved. And yes, they can't talk about it.

They can't talk because there's nothing to be said imho

They have to convince an army of stuffy people at the SEC to give the seal of approval to a totally new asset class. They recruited the best lawyer to do it but she reckoned it would be a process of years.

It took long enough to launch ETFs related to gold, let alone something as new as BTC.  

Even if COIN launches, I doubt Wall Street is just going to pump up the price and let all of us dump on them. Bitcoin must rise on the strength of its economy. GBTC, COIN, Gemini.. none of these are gamechangers. I'm more hopeful about things like Abra. Eventually, one of these apps will eventually be our Uber or Airbnb.

6 months

Last time I checked, it was 3 to 4 years at the least.

Still looking forward to news on the Gemini exchange.

Is that for Gemini to begin trading or the ETF to be approved? I think the Gemini opening will be a matter of months, it should be very positive for the price of BTC but the COIN ETF is nowhere near being approved I fear. It's supposed to be a much more complex, strictly regulated thing to get going. I don't even want to hazard a guess at predicting a date for COIN ETF approval/regulation.
The Winklevoss twins don't seem to know either reagarding the ETF or they don't let anything slip in interviews any way. The ETF will be huge for us, patience is key though.

I wouldn't expect any news in a hurry. If it was going to be launched soon the twins would have made a statement about it during their recent interview by Nathaniel Popper. I don't think it will be soon because they avoided talking about the issue.

They are taking their time and i understand the delays. At this point in their life, they don't really want more money, they want to be remembered. A lot of pride is on the line. One mistake and you go down in history as a big flop, do it well and you go down in history as one big player in the Bitcoin revolution. When you have that much amount of money when you are young you just want to be remembered, thats why a lot of rich young people invest in buildings etc.

Judging from their latest instagram post I don't think Gemini is about to launch any time soon. They're too busy posting this cheesy crap:

https://i.imgur.com/05wR3fA.jpg?1

These guys don't pump millions of dollars into a project unless they think it has some chance of success. As demand increases and supply contracts, price has go up.

I think you're right about that.

Also if their cheesy crap they posted was correct then how did Mark Zuckerberg's one mind beat their two combined minds in the fight over Facebook?

As soon as they have an inkling of when Gemini might open I'm sure it will be all over the internet. They probably don't know when it's opening themselves yet.

Gemini exchange application submitted:

http://www.coindesk.com/gemini-exchange-trust-filing/ (http://www.coindesk.com/gemini-exchange-trust-filing/)



Recent Gemini twitter re-tweet:

Perfect timing. Get this thing primed and on a path to legit-ness right as the price is starting to make significant moves up. Traders will be chomping at the bit to get in when the ink is dried from the NYDFS and an explosion in price upwards will blow your fucking mind. ;)

Hmm. In principle Itbit does everything people want from Gemini and it's here right now. It's growing but it didn't shake the world. What are the Winklevii packing that Itbit isn't? Marketing and contacts?

If Gemini has to happen to ease the ETF's way, Itbit covers that function too.

You should check the facts before sharing your fud  ;)

http://www.dfs.ny.gov/reportpub/wb150724.htm

I am sorry but "tech spunk"?? As in technology semen? Cool Twitter name.

Any update on this? Any estimated date of opening for trading? The last 'newsworthy' thing I saw related to Gemini was a dumb ass pic of some donuts on their official instagram page. I don't think there's been anything official for a while. They're certainly taking their time :(

I think this will drag on for quite a while yet.

The latest is that they've been in Monaco per his Twitter. Looks like they're living it up.

Tyler Winklevoss ‏@tylerwinklevoss Jul 22
Au revoir Monaco! Until next time! https://instagram.com/p/5cKUofJOsw/

Tyler Winklevoss ‏@tylerwinklevoss Jul 21
Monaco nights! Who's feeling lucky? @ Casino de Monte-Carlo https://instagram.com/p/5ak4XMpOmQ/

Gemini ‏@GeminiDotCom Jul 23
Summer days #flatiron https://instagram.com/p/5fGHuWhNsS/
1 retweet 0 favorites

Gemini is dealing exclusively with US banks. I think members outside US cannot use it to buy and sell bitcoin. The rest of the world still need more large legit exchanges like Gemini to reduce friction.

As an additional note this is interesting because it pretty much confirms the theories of Gemini being a integral part of the ETF process.

I hope they get their shit together soon. It's taking too long and people is starting to talk about this as vaporware, just like Openbazaar. It's the problem of announcing something when it's still to underdeveloped, you hype people way too soon.

Gemini - January 2016
ETF - July 2016

There's also this entry:

July 22, 2015 (TR-CRB)
GEMINI TRUST COMPANY, LLC
30 West 24th Street, 4th Floor, New York, New York 10010

Application for exemption from the deposit insurance requirements of Section 32 of the Banking Law received.

Uh oh. Potential fraud alert.

This is the same model as itBit in that they assign custody of clients' fiat funds to partner banks hence the exemption to register for FDIC insurance.

Id assume they launch it at the same time, so it benefits for both sides to traditional investors as well.

Since they offer up the exchange they prob have something on the site where traditional investors eventually buy it from their exchange as well.

Cant the other countries just still buy bitcoin from gemini..

I mean its how most are trying to always buy from btc-e the sketchy exchange, but it`d be the same concept of sending them a wire or other form of SEPA money that they accept and send you btc. After they go through the typical verification process.

I know a gold and oil future day trader that is looking to trade bitcoin on the winks' exchange that is coming up. This outfit is gonna go big.
 

This is not really news?
Twins try to pump it over 300 ^^

Sounds about right.

I mean they got a ton of cash from facebook, and then they do these bitcoin launch as side projects so its not really like they need money or anything.

Heck, gemini could fail and they be still be good on money.  ::)

Man I remeber I signed up like 2 months ago.. and its still on like a coming soon page lol.

I feel like they will launch like mid 2016 to be safe and jan 2016 is just not concrete based on their life style of not needing money that bad lol.

In latest TechCrunch Bitcoin Podcast, host states that he 'has seen' Gemini and that it is 'coming soon'

http://techcrunch.com/2015/08/06/this-week-on-techcrunchs-bitcoin-podcast-biggs-goes-reddit-and-meet-to-com/

Thanks for that my old friend Fakhoury. Will go & read the link now. I've been awaiting an update on Gemini, it's not something that'll send us to the moon but upon breaking news that it opens for business (whenever that is) we should get a 100 USD pump surely?



Edit - I remember somebody posted a link to the Gemini instagram account. I just had a little look & their latest post was yesterday, a picture of a roller coaster or something. They went on a team day out.......How about you give us a date when your exchange will finally open ;)

An increase in to the 300s, 400s would be nice and create an exciting atmosphere once again.

This forum will be fun during the next big rally!

You are most welcome my best friend LFC ;)

Well, what I think about Gemini is, both COIN ETF and Gemini will make the magic, not Gemini alone.

Gemini will sure help us in our journey, maybe we can get a mini rally as you said, somehow sure about it.

I want you to read my topic about the mass adoption, it makes a lot of sense that we will witness it in 10-15 years from now.

Remember rjclarke when we hit the $317, how much fun it was :D

You are right, the next BIG rally will be so fun to witness :D

Even if its from 120 to 200?

ETF has the potential to open the floodgates to massive amounts of capital by eliminating that friction. That ought to have a very substantial upward effect on the price.

That's very true, it can also validate bitcoin to non-believers if they see a real bitcoin ETF trading on NADAQ or NYSE.
It might make people actually look into bitcoin and learn what it's really about instead of dismissing it because they heard it was a ponzi scheme and the CEO died in 2013.

So let's say the ETF comes out and is successful. Would it be more profitable to hold shares of the ETF or bitcoins themselves?

They would essentially be worth the same... unless you value privacy and actual ownership which in this case holding Bitcoin is the reasonable thing to do.

Kathleen Moriarty is still helping the Winklevoss twins, but Moriarty left Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP and joined Kaye Scholer LLP.

So the twins are now working with Kaye Scholer LLP.

http://www.kayescholer.com/in-the-market/news/firm_news/20150630-evan-l-greebel-and-kathleen-h-moriarty-join-kaye-scholers-corporate-practice-as-partners

You can see this on Moriarty's Linkedin page: https://www.linkedin.com/pub/kathleen-h-moriarty-aka-%22spdrwoman%22/b/236/15b


Although, the good news is that it looks like this new firm they are working with is more interested in the Bitcoin space. From LinkedIn:

Financial Transactions Lawyer: focusing on:
--regulatory, structural, operational, trading, cross-listing and compliance issues related to ETFs, registered investment companies, other liquid alts, derivative securities, commodities and non-investment company exchange traded vehicles such as ETCs and ETPs;
--licensing of financial indexes and services for use with such products;
--BITCOIN : regulatory, structural, operational, trading, and compliance issues

I am aware of that.

Simply pointing out that "I guess Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP couldn't get the job done, so they found another attorney." and "they switched legal advisors" is kind of a stretch in this circumstance.

One reason for Canadians to purchase ETF shares is because of something called the TFSA (Tax Free Savings Account). It's a government registered account in which you are allowed to invest a certain amount ($5k roughly) per year. It's been around for a few years and if you haven't contributed in the past then your cumulative total since 2009 would be $41,000.

The name is kind of misleading. A TFSA can be a savings account, but it can also be a brokerage account to hold Stocks, etc. So in this case you'd be able to purchase Bitcoin ETF shares and hold them in your TFSA and cash them out later tax free! For people holding BTC directly it might actually be worth selling some and repurchasing as ETF so that some of your gains will be non-taxable.

Why would you ever want to "cash-out" the gains and report them to authorities? Stop trying to legitimize this broken system.

The etf wont happen if the exchange doesnt come 1st. They need to sell at anytime they please.

The exchange will be more of a marketing promotional tool to prove traditional investors that they are secure based on them having an exchange of their own makes them feel more safe.

ETF might do that, but it will also be bad for bitcoin development due to "paper" bitcoin effects, similar to paper gold and silver.

Some people rather just have a free of guilty conscious which is what I assume.

But yeah, no one really honestly would come forward in reality to that scenario unless they were high or something since that it doesnt make sense from the start.

Spare me this idealist bullshit for a moment. I agree with you for the part however, it is not legitimizing the system to sell some of your Bitcoins for multiple times what you paid for them and diversify into other assets. That is just being prudent! Bitcoin is still no guarantee even though we all want it to be widely adopted. The ETF is just another option for people. It is directed at the mainstream. As for why would someone report their gains? Well how the hell do you expect to buy an ETF and make money on without reporting the gains? Obviously if you don't wanna buy the ETF then my post was not directed at you.

Gemini and ETF need to hurry up and get here

ETF is still a pretty long way off, a couple of years at least in my opinion. I'm under the impression that Gemini should be approved, commence trading or whatever shortly. I definitely expect it up & running by the halving in summer 2016 any way.

Yeah I think we wont see it happen till like 2016.

Being hopeful would be early jan or feb of 2016. But we all know its been how many years when they made this type of announcement of forming a etf and getting it approved and all the other stuff.

I do admit its a good thing though on what they are doing despite the time delay.

From reddit:


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3gvw44/gemini_invite_just_arrived/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3gvw44/gemini_invite_just_arrived/)

I wonder how much institutional money is ready to enter the bitcoin economy with Gemini?

The same that entered itbit.

nada, zip, zilch, zero

Why are  institutional investors requesting early access then?

Gemini is the one requesting to get "institutional investors" to trade on their platform so they can make more revenue off of volume. Like every other exchange.

not sure they are getting "early' access to the actual marketplace - the winklevii post indicates more to being just early form filling so they can trade at the same time as the small guys. maybe I am wrong.

I think there will be interest in Gemini over itbit. Its all about name recognition and FOMO as much as fundementals.

A institutional investor had to sign up on there site first.  Then they just received that email from them to get the process started.  So institutional investors have started the process and will be trading.  To say it will be "zero" makes you seem like a troll.

Any idea if brits using GBP will be able to use Gemini with competitive exchange rates? Or will access for grits remain poor? Obviously Gemini will use USD.

I agree. Gemini has hardcore bitcoin supporters, the Winklevosses, behind it and have ties to the ETF. They seems more geared towards institutional investors than itBit. The name matters too, Gemini sounds much better than itBit.

itBit has insurance covering clients' funds, does Gemini offer the same protection?

I doubt they've made any extra provision for Brits. Everything is US based.

I don't think it'll be a very practical option. Their banking system is third world. Transferring money all the way there is painful.

yes if they have kept to the original idea
 https://blog.gemini.com/welcome-to-gemini/

You can't really compare itBit and Gemini, they are two different beasts.
ItBit is a foreign corporation from Singapore with very little backing and even less hype.
Gemini is a domestic NY Corp with lots of backing from the bitcoin community and a ton of hype.

ItBit did their thing, they were a company nobody ever heard of and they slid in out of nowhere to become the first licensed BTC exchange in NY, too bad nobody uses them.

I'm afraid you are slightly misguided.

itBit was one of the first company in the sector to receive venture investement back in 2013. At that point they were indeed based in Singapore but the backers were far from insignificant (RRE, Canaan)

Since then they have headquartered in New York and successfully obtained a banking trust charter with sponsor from, amongst others, former FDIC chairman Sheila Bair. All while raising an additional 25$m series A from new & existing investors. That makes them legal in all states, not only NY.

They are, by all account, a very significant player in the industry with some of the most important names in finance backing them. Trading hasn't picked up much on their exchange but I expect they will eventually become a major force seeing they have an extremely competent and experienced team behind them.

You don't "slide in" into a NY bank charter trust license. This indicates serious commitment and connections within the existing financial world.  

So far the only thing Gemini has against them is exactly what you've said : hype but not much to show for it.

The exchange sideshow is on schedule, when can we expect the main attraction to come? ETF is what everyone is longing for! Yet we still have no updates for more than 6 months. It's mid August now, I think it won't be traded in 2015, have to wait until Q2 2016 the earliest, round about time of the next halving. I hope the synergy of these 2 events could take bitcoin to new highs.

I also expect this is what is going to happen.

I do think we are going to see a corrected submission of the S-1A that should include a very much needed update on the ecosystem especially in regards to the exchanges cited. Gemini, Coinbase, itBit, Bitstamp should replace Mt.Gox, btc-e, and the other suspects.

Unfortunately this might indeed delay things until 2016 but the potential for the halving and a subsequent launch of the ETF to coincide is very interesting.

http://bravenewcoin.com/news/institutional-bitcoin-exchange-gemini-prepares-for-launch/

I wonder where them becoming a trust leaves the possibility of margin trading. I'm pretty sure Itbit said they couldn't provide leverage because of the terms of their creation.

so its approved ?

No, they filed so they can continue operating.

It took itBit 3 months from file to approval.

https://twitter.com/GeminiDotCom/status/633307506765352960

They should stop with that bullshit and finally open it.  ::)

Can I guess that Gemini will open tomorrow on Wednesday the 19th?  What a perfect time to launch, price is low so there's only one way to go, up!  ;D

It reads: "We are also thrilled to announce that we have secured a banking relationship with a New York State-chartered bank. This means that your money will never leave the country. It also means that US dollars on Gemini will be eligible for FDIC insurance and held by a US-regulated bank. Your US dollars on Gemini will be as safe and secure as they are in your bank account today."

Sounds like only US dollars are covered and cryptos aren't  :-\


Just checked their Twitter (https://twitter.com/GeminiDotCom), no definite dates. If Gemini is due to open soon, they would have given a date. So, expect at least a month. The twins are simply building hype now (bored of it already).

Since Circle got it yesterday... Can we expect the same for Gemini by end of the week? "Soon"  :D

A couple big things happening for Winklevoss in my opinion.

1. CFTC officially declares bitcoin a commodity. Useful for the ETF because a couple times the Winklevoss' said the SEC is debating how to classify it. And they are following the structure of the gold etf (which is a commodity as well)

2. Bitlicenses starting to be issued. If Gemini gets one, they can launch the exchange.

What would be a realistic release date in your opinion? Personally I'd be surprised with 2015.

I guess it would be Q1 of 2016.

If I had to guess, I would say Q2'16 ish for the ETF, and end of the year for the exchange.

Why so late? Twins said that they only wait for Bitlicense and since the first was now approved... 

The dictionaries will soon start to show Shitlevis photo next to the definition of the word 'slow'...

2-3 months isn't so late. If you think about how slow DFS has been, it seems reasonable.

Have the Winklevoss said they will launch Gemini as soon as they get the Bitlicense?

Don't think they said that explicitly. I was under the impression they were looking to get a banking charter like Itbit. Dunno if that's true but that would take quite some time too.

It took itBit just about 3 months from the time of their application to getting the charter. The Wink's filed for their charter late July. So they would probably get it sometime in November

I think they said that all they need is Bitlicense.

They were also saying expecting a Q1 launch for 2015. They'll be lucky to get in Q4. Really suprised by how long they are taking.

i wouldn't be surprised if they at some point decide to cancel everything due to the issues they are facing. they keep delaying everything. they can't keep delaying as there will be better alternatives by that time.

I thought the Gemini Exchange would be live by now, I understand there are a lot more obstacles to get the ETF approved but I have no idea why Gemini is taking so long to become a reality.

It's quite disappointing really, I was hoping it'd be trading now which would have given us a bit of a boost in the price.

I hope it launches soon. Im ready to start seeing btc get the media coverage it needs.

Probably stalling until closer to the halving. Good business strategy: launch Gemini around halving rush, Gemini thrives, more people poor into Gemini, bubble!!

A little part of me has had this on my mind for a while too.

There is no way the SEC is gonna let it pass using the last S-1A

There is a 90% chance they will submit another S-1A and remove exchanges like btc-e, mtgox, etc. They will replace all the foreign bitcoin companies and resources with things like Gemini, Coinbase Exchange, itBit and other regulated infastructure.

Then the SEC will review it again.

note: I am not a legal expert, not giving legal advice, and I am not dealing with this ETF in any way. I am just giving my opinions.

Doesn't have to be the first to succeed but they must be feeling a little peeved that things aren't unfurled yet. If I'd been them I would've put something more modest into action just to get things rolling. Something more meaningful and useful than the Winkdex obviously.

That sounds like the smart option but are you sure they must do this because if so then it could be another year before we see the etf launched.

yes I am very sure. The old S-1A has nothing in it about Gemini. They have to file a new S-1A. The reason their last S-1A was so long ago is because they are waiting to get all their ducks lined up, then submit one final S-1A with everything in it.

If I had to take a guess, it's 6-12 months away after/if their Gemini charter gets approved

note: I am not a legal expert, not giving legal advice, and I am not dealing with this ETF in any way. I am just giving my opinions.

But where are you getting this information from?

Common sense, and a bit of legal knowledge

This sounds sensible. I too agree that their old S-1A has no chance to get approved as it is. Hopefully the SEC is actively collaborating with them so that when the revised form is submitted the review process is shortened.

They could be on their way.
From their Gemini instagram (https://instagram.com/p/7fu0naBNst/) posted on Sept 11th.

geminidotcomThanks for having us, #AIBA. We enjoyed our time discussing the future of #bitcoin compliance yesterday with fellow panelist Dana Syracuse of @K2Intelligence at one of NYC's oldest and most renowned establishments.

The AIBA is the Association of International Bank Auditors.

I work at a private lending institution in the US and when we teamed up with Wells Fargo and Bank of Internet the auditors came in after an agreement was reached, but before it was effective.

I followed the link to Department of Financial Services:
http://www.dfs.ny.gov/reportpub/wb150925.htm


itBit received their Certificate of Authorisation in May and open for business around July? So Gemini should go live in about 3 months in January, the earliest.

Why the Winklevoss are so slow at everyhting they do?

Being born as twins could mean they also need for everything they do the doubled amount of time.They never will be numero uno.They seem to be designated for being second at most. That's act of nature.You can not blame them. :D

It took 12 days until itBit got their certificate, so Gemini can get their certificate next week. I guess they will start trading pretty soon. Why should they wait?


http://www.dfs.ny.gov/reportpub/wb150424.htm



http://www.dfs.ny.gov/reportpub/wb150508.htm

They shouldn't wait. I would like to see Gemini online trading and their ETF approved by SEC as soon as possible. Things are moving quite slow for them, I don't know how "ready" they are now.

Articles of Org are filed when a corporation begins. The corporation Gemini began well before today. This is likely just an updated filing or a new filing for a state that they were previously not registered. Not big news in my opinion.

Yeah Gemini exchange are very manipulative and its always making sure that dollars will never leave this country,
I think it will surely affect the coin's price.

http://www.coindesk.com/gemini-exchange-moves-toward-launch-nydfs-approvals/?utm_content=buffer947c1&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer


This!

That Coindesk story says Gemini will need to pass subsequent approvals before it can serve US customers. Exactly what extra approvals will it have to pass, and how long will they be expected to take? Until they can serve US customers they won't start serving foreign customers. I thought Gemini would have been open months ago, and it's so long since the last time I heard anything about it that I'd given up looking for stories about it.

Latest instagram post:

https://i.imgur.com/foB6wUK.png?1

Is there a day of the week on which something like an exchange opening would be most likely to be announced? If I recall correctly, Coinbase was launched on a Monday.  Not sure when it was announced though.

So now is clear that Gemini will offer derivatives. Cool!

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3n9pfp/why_gemini_bitcoin_exchange_has_institutional/

Last part of the article is in comment.

Also 8)

That's all very bullish news  ;D
Perhaps the patience will pay off. If there is a US regulated and accepted exchange that offers not just buy/sell but also derivative trading, and then to top is off the ETF to trade on NASDAQ before the end of the year.  Gather up your coins now while you still can my friends, once the FOMO sets in the price could skyrocket.

Here we go!  :)

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-exchange-gemini-new-york/

I think ETF will still take 6months - 1year

Gemini isn't gonna take us to the moon

Woo Thursday!

Trading starts Thursday, but what is the point of Gemini, really?
Maybe options?

Unless they have free or almost free trades at Gemini, I can get bitcoin on Coinbase, which would, hopefully, lower their higher trade costs.

the point of Gemini is:

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQJQxKMHSyrYmvCE-m0yXXTzbL6MybD65s9ti8tvRB6_HCQJ1Zd

and why INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR cannot get bitcoin elsewhere?

It must be a soft launch for institutional investors first.  Their site still says invite only.

https://blog.gemini.com/and-were-live/#more-31

Looks like my state is on the pending list.  No invite code for me yet.  :(

I got the invite  ;D

https://i.imgur.com/babzbvM.png?1

...and I don't live in the US  ::)

gemini: We are live... :)
<only in 26 out of 50 states> :-\
hmmmm

btw Gemini is only working in the united states and not international Atm.

Vroom vroom got my account  active! They let you link your checking account so you can buy easily directly from the exchange. Screenshot

http://snag.gy/xsDcV.jpg

What are the payment options? Only bank transfer from US banks?
They are live faster than I thought. I hope their ETF is not far behind.

That sounds safer and more honest than Cryptsy which claimed to be fully regulated as a money transmitter across all US states. Cryptsy is now being prosecuted because it only has a federal money transmitter licence, when it should also have a separate license for each state in the US. The winks are doing things slow but legit, and won't be prosecuted like Cryptsy.

The only option they gave me for payment was US bank account. Only US right now and no option for CC or debit. Perhaps that will change down the road.

The moon reference is classic. Pretty graphics though :)

Trading starts Thursday, but still nothing on the ETF..

I think the ETF will take a while. It took them this long to launch the exchange, so I expect the ETF will take much longer.

hopefully the ETF will be one small step for gemini and one giant leap for bitcoin.

Great news about Gemini but the ETF will take quite a long time. There will be many legal loop holes that need to be jumped through.

A rough target could be 2017?

March 11  ;)

I'd be surprised if it gets approved. I think the most likely reason for it to be rejected is the probability of a contentious hard-fork resulting in competing chains. I really do not see how the SEC could justify approving any Bitcoin ETF with this possibility looming over the industry. It is too bad the DEVs and miners can not find some kind of compromise instead of going to war.

Agree, why can't they reach a compromise when what they're doing could be costing all of us thousands of dollars or even more. I was led to believe that the compromise was SegWit but we wait.......

For it to be disapproved it then has to be formally withdrawn I believe. And the SEC doesn't have to do anything to approve it. Ergo the longer it drags on the more likely approval is.

I can't imagine the SEC are drama queens who enjoy dragging things out.

I do agree with you about the possibility of forks and so on but some ETFs based on very shaky markets have been approved in the past without a whimper.

And don't forget that after the COIN ETF, there's another two applications to go. The SolidX one is arguably a better proposition too.

I'm curious what are some of the "very shaky markets" that have been approved?  What's the craziest, or most unexpected, thing that has received ETF approval before?

Quite a few, "designed" to rob long investors over long term:

USO (just look at the graph)
DGL, which lagged the return by 2% annually instead of 0.75 predicted
UCO (went from $200 to $20 =90% loss while oil went from 100 to $50-50% loss)
All futures based ETFs are s-t designed to separate investors from their money.
If there ever was a case against WS financial advisers, these would fit quite nicely.

Plus, check this link:
http://www.cnbc.com/2012/06/27/herb-greenbergs-8-weirdest-etfs.html

Interesting read.  Their strangeness would seemingly give more hope to a btc ETF.  On the other hand their weirdness seems to be mostly related to the financial machinations of their design, rather than the underlying assets (natural gas futures, highly volatile stocks, etc) that the ETF is based on.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C4DFLWQWcAAWuDn.jpg:large

#Bitcoin - $GBTC jacked up premium, because only US Bitcoin derivative compliant, is now falling hard pricing Bitcoin ETFs/derivatives?

source: https://twitter.com/Beetcoin/status/828880326877290496

This is what I see happening. With GBTC coming to closer to parity with NAV just as you said and with the upcoming decision from the Winklevoss ETF (COIN) and the SolidX Bitcoin Trust ETF (XBTC). Let's say they say yes, then you should see an influx of Bitcoin being purchased which should drive up the price of Bitcoin, which would in theory then drive up the price of GBTC. If they come back and say no, then in theory GBTC would once again go up in price and be further from NAV as there would not be a COIN or XBTC ETF available to participate in. Either way, unless BTC falls dramatically for some reason GBTC should only go up from here with both good or bad news from the upcoming SEC announcements.

I think the GBTC might end up significantly lower though.  A rising bitcoin tide will raise all boats. but would it raise GBTC fast enough to offset that? I thought there were some big advantages for almost all investors in choosing an ETF over GBTC.  Is there any reason someone would prefer GBTC?  If not then the only reason anyone would buy it would be because it's cheap enough that going to the trouble of getting the actual BTC out would be worth it.

Why haven't many or any people picked up on the lack of demand for similar ish European initiatives likes the Swedish ETN and the Global Advisers one?

Are they fundamentally set up in a less sexy way, accessed in a completely different way or will the American versions be open to a different class of money? I haven't paid them enough attention to know. There's plenty of money in Europe too which has barely shown a peep of interest.

And here's some fun baseless speculation  as well.

https://i.imgur.com/ve98cR9.png

yeah, definitely less sexy.
I could not even figure out what the imgur image guy is saying as it has some double negatives.
Whatever, man, it is pretty much a consensus of at least 75 vs 25% that it would not be approved, so it it should have been priced in already.
One peculiar thing is that there are not one, but three ETF up for review.
It would be simpler to say to the other two: don't even bother with the motions.
Someone said that if it is going to be denied, we would know beforehand because they would allow Winkle's to withdraw the application.

There are some other ways to purchase Bitcoin through overseas market, but the US market and the availability of an ETF which brings in major investment funds and legitimacy is what would be a major bullish long term play on Bitcoin. I don't think a Swedish ETN (Bitcoin tracker one" (BTO) that's listed on NASDAQ/OMX in Stockholm), and the Global Advisors Investment Fund plc (GABI) which is listed on the Channel Islands Securities Exchange (CISE) says mainstream in any way shape or form.

An ETF is heads and shoulders better than an OTC investment. I'm speaking strictly about the price to NAV of GBTC. Prices will always fluctuate above and below NAV but will always come back to NAV when they swing to far left and right of the correct price. If or should I say when an ETF is approved more money will flow into the ETFs, but GBTC will benefit from the rising price of Bitcoin. The assumption of course if that the ETFs will immediately start taking in money from hedge funds and other investment firms looking to diversify for their portfolios and their investors. The best thing which has occurred recently has been for the recent major 3 Chinese exchanges to impose trading fees and no longer allowing leveraging. Even if the ETF is not approved, I don't think there will be a major swing and if it does occur this time around the gap would be quickly filled.

They filed new S-1 amendments today.
Apparently, they will issue 10x more 'units', but each unit will correspond to 1/100 BTC, not 1/10.
In addition, they made side agreements with several high freq traders (HFT).
conclusion:

1. HFT will over-trade trade the ETF.
2. if approved, we will start at 1/100 of BTC per share.
Well, at $10 many people would consider it cheap enough to buy above 100 shares/'units'

Is this good news actually?
To me it looks like they're clearly in dialogue trying to satisfy everyone involved right?!
So there will be 10,000,000 shares instead of just 1,000,000.
Interesting.

When I started this thread 2 years ago I didn't think it would take this long to find out  :o

Hard to believe they'd take this long if they were going to approve it.

Yeah, there's a case to be made for that viewpoint too.  But why after 3 years would the sec wait to approve it with only a few days to go before the final deadline?  Seems like you'd wait to give the ETF people a chance to convince you it should be approved, rather than convince you it shouldn't be approved (because you're already leaning against it).  Still a chance of course.

That's what I thought when I had to do a look back at the date on this one.
It took exactly two years to see it come to this point and it still isn't even a sure thing it will go thru.
If it does fail to be approved does it have another chance to get it done or is this it?
Do or die time I think. :-[

If they detested the idea from day one then they wouldn't have dragged it out this long. Understandably they're going to have a lot of doubts. That's what all of these meetings and amendments have been addressing. The length of it all says to me that they've been giving it very serious consideration.

I assume the Winklevii would have to start over again and perhaps find themselves another exchange too. I can't see the point of reapplying in the near future if there is a rejection. They'll have done all they can with this one.

After this there's SolidX and GBTC. Perhaps they'll have a stronger case but I think it's Bitcoin itself that's going to scupper any applications and no application can address that.

there won't be an etf.

if there were you'd be buying it through your normal broker so you'd never have anything to do with gemini anyway.