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101  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where is the money going to come from to rally bitcoin? on: April 02, 2014, 01:33:02 AM
Those giant spikes up are caused by delusional dumb money (i.e. general public) during a media driven hype. Smart money buys low.
It wouldn't surprise me if bitcoin will be hyped up again after some kind of 2008-like financial crash, which is likely coming in the next year or two.

Yeah I guess that's the best way to put it. Smart money is not going to be buying right now. They buy in before any media attention, there has been plenty of media attention actually much more than I could have ever imagined.

Smart money puts their money in smart investments, and bitcoin just is not that. It is a highly risky investment and will require a lot of pumping, something which smart money will not gamble with.

I just do not see it as an investment. Where I went wrong was I planned on buying bitcoin when it had a long term stable price after the first bubble. That would have been when it was stable and rising from around $8-$12 dollars for over a year.

 That was the best time to put your money in and I did not because I was not even watching bitcoin at that time.

 Right now at $500 bucks, that is just crazy. Maybe it can go to $1000, but it simply is not worth the risk as it probably will not go that high.

Reading these forums will fool you because most people here bought in at really cheap prices and are just pumping what they own. These same people will not be spending their money on $500 bitcoin, they are not that stupid. Then you have a few new people who are trying to "get rich quick", you will always get those idiot gamblers.



102  Economy / Speculation / Where is the money going to come from to rally bitcoin? on: April 02, 2014, 01:03:04 AM
One thing I can not figure out is where is the money going to come from to rally bitcoin?

What I see is most of the bitcoin community are people who own a lot of bitcoins for really cheap. They simply are not going to be buying them at these high prices, or at least not enough to make a difference.

China, which some people say is the reason why bitcoin rallied so high, looks to be out of the game in a big way.

With all the negative news, most new people are not going to invest any serious cash in what looks to be a big Ponzi scheme.

So I ask where is the money going to come from now? Everybody on here just magically wants to become rich but it is going to take money, and a lot of money to push the prices higher. I just can't figure out where this money will come from.

I still think the prices are way too high and unsustainable. I do not think the community is that much larger since bitcoin was at $12 dollars a year ago. Now you don't have the largest country in the world adapting it to pump up those prices.

I've said it before and I will say it again, Bitcoin at these high prices is a very bad investment. You are taking on so much risk right now for a limited reward. The times of buying at $10 with the possibility of it going to $100 or higher are over.
It will take substantial amount of money to get the reward you deserve for investing in such a risky asset.

You are far better off placing your money in the stock market and betting on a single stock. At least you know your money is safe.




 

103  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Cosmopolis] Prepare for Bitcoin $266 Retest on: March 30, 2014, 03:45:35 PM
Once I saw $480 last night, I easily see bitcoins hitting in the $200's.

I've been saying all along these high bitcoin prices are not sustainable. Everybody wants to get rich, it can't really keep going on like this.

The transfer of wealth has begun from the people who got out early.
104  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why are people so negative and doubtful on bitcoin (the comments on here) on: March 27, 2014, 11:45:48 PM
Why are people so negative?
Bitcoin is down over 50% and hasn't had a decent Rally in recent memory.
Gox Goxxed every last Gox in Goxland.
Many alts are down ~90%
The China Bubble burst
The Winkiegloss Fund is taking a long time to be approved.
BTC mining equipment is only for wealthy people now.
etc, etc, etc.

Sad days are here, but things will get better.  Smiley

Will the Winkiegloss fund eventually get approved? Why is it taking so long?
105  Economy / Speculation / Re: China BANNED BITCOIN! This time for real! on: March 27, 2014, 11:41:13 PM
HOLY SH$T
106  Economy / Speculation / Re: A sign that bitcoin price will begin rising soon? on: March 27, 2014, 03:15:07 PM
When you compare old charts you had so many things for pumpers to pump up that price. Including china getting into the bitcoin market.

Now all you have is country after country banning it, china out of the game, lots of alt-coins etc.

I sold my bitcoins at $800 and never looked back. In my opinion you would have to be a fool to invest in bitcoins at $500 each. That is so overvauled it is crazy. You are taking on such extreme risk at these prices, and you will not get those exponential returns like you could have if you bought in the single digits.

On top of that it is too risky to put up any kind of substantial money into bitcoins as we know you can easily lose your bitcoins. I won't invest 100K of my cash in bitcoins but I will do it in the stock market where at least it will not get stolen. 

The only reason the price is not lower is you have die-hard bitcoin holders just sitting out for the time being. Volume is ultra low. Everybody is relying on that the next bitcoin holder will not dump.
107  Economy / Speculation / Re: Sub $530? on: March 27, 2014, 02:46:31 PM
Well, we are in a prolonged downtrend regardless of news. so dumps are predictable.
News that play on fear just makes the process faster.

Also, don't forget that the "ban" who started the december crash begun with a lot of "rumors" and "FUD" and a lot of people dismissed them yelling "HODL" and shit.

Bottom will be around $400 or even lower.


Yes, I notice the same trend.

In December when the china ban came out everyone was screaming hold, and it is fake news, just like you said.
Then bitcoin dropped like 50%.

The smart people are getting out as high as they can.
108  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will still go down short term on: March 24, 2014, 03:05:17 AM
I lost some bitcoins on Mt Gox. Do I have to do anything to make a claim?
109  Economy / Speculation / Re: Vicurex freezing withdrawals. on: March 24, 2014, 02:49:29 AM
I'm going to stop being lazy and pull my cash out of the American exchange I belong in. I should have learned my lesson already about being lazy from Mt. Gox.

Notice how they said they had large withdrawals recently which led to this. I knew this was going to happen after the Mt. Gox failure. People are pulling their money out of the exchanges, no trust.

110  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you think the alt-coin crash is hurting bitcoin? on: March 21, 2014, 04:38:17 AM
Yes.

Altcoins are now mostly dead to the threats/FUD about btc-e, and alt-coins were one of btc's biggest businesses.  This represents yet another sector of the market leaving, like gox and China. Now people are selling their bitcoins instead of holding them on altcoin exchanges to trade altcoins and there is a reduced incoming interest into crypto as well.

agreed 100%. Glad some other people notice that alt-coins were a big business for bitcoin. I think it had a much bullish impact to bitcoins than people want to give it.

I think it helped sustain the high bitcoin prices for a long time. Now that this is over, bitcoin should fall back to sustainable levels.
111  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you think the alt-coin crash is hurting bitcoin? on: March 21, 2014, 04:34:28 AM
Yes.

Altcoins are now mostly dead to the threats/FUD about btc-e, and alt-coins were one of btc's biggest businesses.  This represents yet another sector of the market leaving, like gox and China. Now people are selling their bitcoins instead of holding them on altcoin exchanges to trade altcoins and there is a reduced incoming interest into crypto as well.

When things look hopeless, and prices are down ~80 to 90% you have a perfect time to:
Buy, or give up and sell the rest off cheap?

maybe you can argue this point about Bitcoin, but I can't see how alt-coins can turn themselves around.

I have been preaching in the alt-coin forum many months ago that the growth rate is way too high and there is absolutely no way the prices can be sustained. To top it off all the alt-coins basically share the same investment money. Lets not forget about the miners who will all mine the most profitable coin to dump.

112  Economy / Speculation / Re: Just moved half of my funds off Bitstamp back into nice safe and warm Bank Konto on: March 20, 2014, 03:59:07 PM
I agree with you about pulling your money from the exchanges. I actually have been wanting to do this for a while as I totally agree with your bitcoin sentiment.

I lost about $700 dollars on Mt. Gox that I had sitting as cash (was for a partial bitcoin I sold to test out their exchange). Mt. Gox should be enough to realize that any of these exchanges can go under.

A problem with bitcoin and a reason I didn't invest in it heavily early on is that I saw it as too risky to hold for the average person. It can be too easily stolen or hacked from your computer. I thought back when bitcoin was in the single digits that there would be plenty of malware able to steal bitcoin.

Now you can imagine what will happen with these high prices. You have to be really sophisticated to keep your bitcoins safe and you can't guarantee 100% safety.



113  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you think the alt-coin crash is hurting bitcoin? on: March 20, 2014, 03:45:24 PM
Alt-coins crashed?  That was long overdue.

The only effect alt-coins had on Bitcoin was to move Bitcoins from fools who wanted to gamble to people who understand where real value would end up when the game ended.

The only impact alt-coins crashing will have is mining investments will be even worse.  Look for more Mt.Gox style news from the mining equipment suppliers.

I think you underestimate how much new money came into bitcoins, simply for the reason of buying alt-coins.

I look at myself who is very frugal and bearish in general. It made me put in thousands of dollars into buying bitcoins to gamble. At the peak of the alt-coins, the forum sections were booming compared to the bitcoin speculation forums. Actually I would say that most posts on this forum were probably in the alt-coin section.

114  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you think the alt-coin crash is hurting bitcoin? on: March 20, 2014, 03:41:54 PM
Agreed, I only "gambled" with alt-coins. It was actually a fun way to gamble at the time. However, I pulled out everything when it was clear that it was all going down. I never expected it to get as bad as it has. I actually made money from the Alt-coins because I pulled out early enough and got lucky with one alt-coin, which I made mostly all my money from.

115  Economy / Speculation / Do you think the alt-coin crash is hurting bitcoin? on: March 20, 2014, 03:21:27 PM
The only reason I bought bitcoins for what I consider ridiculous high prices was to speculate with alt-coins.

I actually bought quite a few of them, which I never would have bought as I think the price of bitcoins is way too high and overvalued, and you're not going to make any money at these price levels, at least not worth the risk.

I didn't sit on many of them, but the fact that I bought them and transferred them to someone who essentially created new wealth for bitcoins with the alt-coins, definitely was bullish for bitcoins. Of course if the person who I gave my bitcoins to immediately sold the bitcoins for cash it wouldn't have much effect but I am sure most people who made money/bitcoins from selling alt-coins held onto them.

So my thinking goes now that alt-coins are pretty much dead and that whole speculative alt-coin boom looks to be over, this will really hurt the price of bitcoin. Basically the alt-coins were creating new wealth for bitcoins, a big reason for someone to take fiat and dump them into bitcoin to get part of this new wealth. This is pretty much over in a big way right now.

Anothing point is the bitcointalk forum was looking at completely getting rid of the alt-coin sections at one point, but they decided to keep it and expand it. I think the reason they expanded it was that they knew the alt-coin boom was really helping bitcoin as that is the only thing most people would actually buy with their bitcoins.

My point is that this alt-coin crash is actually a very bad thing for bitcoin in my opinion. I think that was a big reason why the prices were held up for so long. I know I personally put thsouands of dollars into bitcoins because of this reason alone and I am very frugal. You can imagine what the degenerate gamblers must have put into it.





116  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What if you bought some of those stolen Mt Gox Bitcoins? on: February 28, 2014, 11:47:07 PM
How?  BTC transactions are irreversible.

Not really if law enforcement gets involved and you have to go to court. Technically you can be sued if you can convince a jury.

Not really a good thing to be honest if this did happen.
117  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / What if you bought some of those stolen Mt Gox Bitcoins? on: February 28, 2014, 11:42:50 PM
Sorry if this was discussed, but in USA if you buy stolen property and you are caught with it you have to return it to the original owner at your loss.

Now, lets say someone did steal the Mt Gox. Bitcoins, and then you bought some of them unknowingly.

If they could trace back through the blockchain that those bitcoins were indeed stolen Mt. Gox. coins, wouldn't they be able to take them back from you?



118  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gox dead, BitStamp freefall, no resistance. $250 Bitcoin this week on: February 25, 2014, 05:11:31 AM
I agree, I don't think people realize just how bad this is. The main thing is people will not trust money on the exchanges. I am highly considering pulling off the money I have on campbx, as I just don't trust any of these exchanges anymore.

People will also lose trust like me and not want to keep so much cash on the exchanges. This will be very bad as there needs to be a lot of cash on the exchanges to drive the price up of a very expensive bitcoin at $500 each.

Honestly, it is a sure bet to go lower at this point.
119  Economy / Speculation / Re: My prediction for a comeback on: February 25, 2014, 04:39:14 AM
Guys this is pretty bad news about Mt Gox.

Who can really trust any exchange at this point?

It makes me want to pull the bulk of my money which is on CampBX right now after losing money on Mt. Gox.

I can imagine what this will do to other people. They surely will not want to risk much money anymore, especially money needed for bitcoin to go to 10,000 that most of you think it will go there.

I just don't see the price staying as high as it is, which at $500 is still a very high price.

If any of you are still sitting on bitcoins, I would recommend to pull them out ASAP and sit out. It is almost a sure bet to go lower at this point.
120  Economy / Speculation / Re: Now that Gox is dead, shouldn't we have a rally? on: February 25, 2014, 04:38:23 AM
Guys this is pretty bad news about Mt Gox.

Who can really trust any exchange at this point?

It makes me want to pull the bulk of my money which is on CampBX right now after losing money on Mt. Gox.

I can imagine what this will do to other people. They surely will not want to risk much money anymore, especially money needed for bitcoin to go to 10,000 that most of you think it will go there.

I just don't see the price staying as high as it is, which at $500 is still a very high price.

If any of you are still sitting on bitcoins, I would recommend to pull them out ASAP and sit out. It is almost a sure bet to go lower at this point.
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