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I requested a refund due to the fact that I run out of my energy expenditures in a hot climate, but it is entirely possible that KNC fortune will soon turn for the better.
Come June, nobody will have a 3Th machine and people will be interested if KnC delivers even 3TH.
I grant you that by June bitmain might drop their 1th machine to $1500-1600, but lower energy consumption in the summer is still advantageous.
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One of the recent batch (ordered at the first recent sales day) S1 works for 5 min, then disconnects, then in a few seconds beeps, then reconnects.
This cycle repeats all day long. What could be the cause?
i tried to reboot multiple times, switched off power supply, then back on-no cure. I have a feeling that I have a rare faulty unit. Thanks for any suggestion.
70% likely its your power supply. after 3min or so the antminer is at full speed and after a minute or two of this your PSU is finally overloaded and switches off. a lot of power supplies will attempt to restart themselves when this happens Interesting...I am running this S1 on corsair CX500M, not overclocked, so it should be able to handle it. A faulty power supply unit? I will swith powersupply and see what happens. Big thanks! |
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One of the recent batch (ordered at the first recent sales day) S1 works for 5 min, then disconnects, then in a few seconds beeps, then reconnects.
This cycle repeats all day long. What could be the cause?
i tried to reboot multiple times, switched off power supply, then back on-no cure. I have a feeling that I have a rare faulty unit. Thanks for any suggestion.
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I believe Road Stress said he requested his refund on 4/11/14. I requested mine on 4/8/14 and still waiting. This is bullshit.  The squeaky wheel gets the grease, or they go by seniority on bitcointalk, LOL. |
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This board is about to confirm Godwin's law.
technical stuff and money>bitching about KnC>beer>sex, including how f'ed we are>....
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Bitmain now requires signature (why???), so UPS tried to deliver my units at 2pm. I missed it, of course. Darn it!
I will have to go to the local hub tomorrow. Nothing could be done today. Cost me lunch money or so.
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I wonder if this is a clearance sale? If so, I wonder if they will simply package the units that they use in their mining center, hence the time delay until May 4.
It is very tempting, I admit. I am scheduled to get two more S1 today-will see how the units look and hash and then proceed. Bitmain is approaching $1/GH (currently $1.17/GH/s for S1 at 375mhz (192GH/s).
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Did ANYBODY received refunds in the last two weeks?
I am curious if this process even ongoing?
Thanks.
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going from 55nm to 28nm would improve efficiency by about 4x at chip level (perhaps more if they revise the design at all). The overall efficiency might increase by 3.5x to account for the power use of everything else in the BOM and the control modules
and you have to get over the idea that the S2 is 'too big'. The S1 cost 4.75BTC at first, now its about 15% of that price. The S2 is due for a pricedrop to a more realistic ~5BTC very soon if it want to stay relevant. This will drop to 3.5BTC after a month.
The biggest advantage in the S2 is some clear design improvements. these include: space for ATX psu, rack-mounting, denser chip arrangement, and 140mm fans (these are VERY good fans, more airflow than from the S1 fan but less RPM and noise)
If they come out with a new chip, I expect they will maintain the S2 profile, but pack in 4-5TH of chips.
re OP on "too big". S2 is overpriced for its power and hashing at ~$3.2/GH with S1 currently at $1.4/GH. S2 has problems of boards falling off the rails during transport (or was it fixed already?). I don't want an expensive unit where reliability might be a problem (with flash cards on restarts, etc.). Modularity is very important, I agree with OP. the price/GH is definitely a bit off in the S2. (keep in mind though that it uses 10x the chips as an S1, which is *almost* logical if the chips are the biggest cost). IMO it should be 5BTC right now at most, if not 4.5BTC. my unit is a batch 2 and i had no issues in shipment or in usage. (~980-990GH stock was a smidge low of the 1TH). the rails that hold the modules are fine on mine and do the job well enough that i really wonder what went wrong with the damaged units some people received. they are small plastic slides on a metal brace, all of which seems firmly put together in my box. The PSU was new 1000W enermax GOLD, or looked like new. I have not had issues with the SD card on reboots or power cycles, but my bitfury unit used to so i am not surprised that the some of the S2 sd cards have corrupted when using cheap cards. The S2 is rack-mountable. the hashing boards are removable (if swapping them is ever needed). I would say that is important compared to the havoc of dealing with over a dozen S1 units and their seperate power supplies and difficulty stacking. 1!1!1!1 would testify to this - all you need to do is see the difference in his racks for S1 units and S2 units. one rack is clean and gorgeous, the other is a hodgepodge of zipties, server PSUs, and power/ethernet cables. You are probably right for a large operation, but for a home use few s1 are manageable. If S2 was $1800-2000, I would probably buy it instead. |
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Does anybody think that S2 is an intermediate product before Bitmain releases S3=S1 form factor with a different chip (40nm or 28nm)?
Can S1 form factor even work with 40nm or 28nm chip? I imagine that it could, perhaps with two fans (push-pull)?
I would be thrilled to have the S1 equivalent form factor, hashing at 400-500GH/s.
It would be a huge blockbuster if it will be as reliable as S1 has been (at least in most cases).
The thing is, a simple die shrink wouldn't help efficiency THAT much I don't think, they would nee to do a bit of redesign as well in order to get better efficiency, though a die shrink would help. They would need to go from 55nm to 20nm to stay competitive or give miners a huge incentive to buy within the next 6 months. That said, I firmly believe that the S1 form factor is extremely important if BTC is going to succeed. The problem with having all these GIANT units is that they will only be held by small amounts of folks. I can convince friends and family and other people interested in mining to pick up an Antminer S1 at these current prices very easily, so in that sense, its awesome. However, the problem with these more efficient big boys is that they cost thousands of dollars. If Bitmaintech could release a 20nm Antminer S10, or something like that, that was basically a 500 GH.S 20/28nm version with some efficiency and UI upgrades, and sell it for say, 2 btc, I think a lot of people would hop on board, and they could churn these out for at least 6-8 months. going from 55nm to 28nm would improve efficiency by about 4x at chip level (perhaps more if they revise the design at all). The overall efficiency might increase by 3.5x to account for the power use of everything else in the BOM and the control modules and you have to get over the idea that the S2 is 'too big'. The S1 cost 4.75BTC at first, now its about 15% of that price. The S2 is due for a pricedrop to a more realistic ~5BTC very soon if it want to stay relevant. This will drop to 3.5BTC after a month. The biggest advantage in the S2 is some clear design improvements. these include: space for ATX psu, rack-mounting, denser chip arrangement, and 140mm fans (these are VERY good fans, more airflow than from the S1 fan but less RPM and noise) If they come out with a new chip, I expect they will maintain the S2 profile, but pack in 4-5TH of chips. re OP on "too big". S2 is overpriced for its power and hashing at ~$3.2/GH with S1 currently at $1.4/GH. S2 has problems of boards falling off the rails during transport (or was it fixed already?). I don't want an expensive unit where reliability might be a problem (with flash cards on restarts, etc.). Modularity is very important, I agree with OP. |
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Does anybody think that S2 is an intermediate product before Bitmain releases S3=S1 form factor with a different chip (40nm or 28nm)?
Can S1 form factor even work with 40nm or 28nm chip? I imagine that it could, perhaps with two fans (push-pull)?
I would be thrilled to have the S1 equivalent form factor, hashing at 400-500GH/s.
It would be a huge blockbuster if it will be as reliable as S1 has been (at least in most cases).
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The passive aggressive reaction to unwelcome news, the jerkish attitude to the messenger bearing said news (sorry y3804), and the pure bile poured over China and the Chinese in this thread (and the forum in general) is nothing short of depressing. Grow up, Bitcoin investors. You didn't whine when China pushed us to 1000+, so now that they put in the reverse gear, you should bear* it with some dignity as well. * yea, couldn't resist the pun, sorry  I guess it's the attitude and the glee of the messenger. I mean, what are people even doing here if they share Krugman's opinions about Bitcoin? And frankly, these guys are getting boring and irritating - I read this BS *every* time in a bear market. But so far, every bear market has been a bear trap. They are just permamnent assholes .....why dont you just fuck off out of our community You said it... Wait...I still want cheap miners-0.619 BTC ($1.57/GH/s). Can anybody else, but chinese have such prices-of course, not. With that said, who cares if recharging is banned in the mainland when they can transfer 50K/year to HK. I don't think that anybody except top 0.01-0.1% are investing more than that yearly in BTC. No problem. |
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I thought I would add my two cents after making & tweeting some similar long term charts: (1/2) I have some interesting charts for you guys: imgur.com/a/J2NZDBoth are the same. All are super powerful trendlines. (2/2) Remember, crowd psych and manipulation will make you believe the trends are over. They aren't, until fully confirmed (closed candles) Ultimately, I think these trendlines are of supreme importance, and it is difficult to know which are superior (the linear or log). However simply remembering it takes a long time and much capital to exit them, is your greatest fall back. Too short a timeframe chosen resulting in less probable graphs, in my opinion. It looks like a carbon copy of TERAs. |
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http://www.weibo.com/2149945883/B1wQbdDTM?mod=weibotimeSince China Merchants Bank recently issued a notice, Bitcoin Chinese capital security considerations for users and platform stability operations, decided to suspend the account of RMB CMB recharge. Subsequent updates, stay tuned to our official website and microblogging, Thanks again for your BTCChina's concern and support bulletin Fiat deposit completely frozen for BTCChina now* Who cares? Ban it already. China is just repeating the whole 'isolation' mentality that impeded their growth for a good 1000 years. Besides, communist ideology and 'big brother" mentality is incompatible with long term innovation. As a result, more and cheaper BTC for us and cheaper miners as well. Perhaps, China is about to crash hard and that's why authorities are closing any possibility for the capital flight. Rich chinese simply will have to go to Macau to get rid of yuans for dollars. |
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A simple argument for a minimal BTC price of $40-60K in the next 3-3.5 years follows: The 30 million fiat millionaires capital is currently ~$88 trillion. If only 1% of this capital will be allocated to BTC (a minimal figure for argument's sake), it would constitute 880bil or ~$42000/BTC (at full 21 mil BTC). Family offices and advisors typically suggest allocating more than this to alternative investments, so I think that at least 1% is quite conservative. If the conversion occurs within the next 3 years, BTC will be at ~15-16 mil total coins mined, hence the price projection might be adjusted to $55000-58000/BTC under this scenario. A very good deal at the current $494  . I like your optimism, but I'd be interested to see some citation for your figures. I am under the impression there are about half that many millionaires in the world, and I am intrigued that you were able to come up with their combined net worth. Also, thinking that every single one of them will invest in BTC is rather far fetched. But again, I love the optimism, and there are other scenarios, coupled with your idea that would make such a price feasible. Regardless, I think we can agree that $494 is a good deal Source for numbers: Cited in http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/CS%20wealth%207.jpgarticle: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-02/its-1-world-who-owns-what-223-trillion-global-wealthActual source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2012 I assume that the current wealth is a least 30% higher due to the stock market and RE boom in 2013-2014, but included 2012 numbers. |
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A simple argument for a minimal BTC price of $40-60K in the next 3-3.5 years follows: The 30 million fiat millionaires capital is currently ~$88 trillion. If only 1% of this capital will be allocated to BTC (a minimal figure for argument's sake), it would constitute 880bil or ~$42000/BTC (at full 21 mil BTC). Family offices and advisors typically suggest allocating more than this to alternative investments, so I think that at least 1% is quite conservative. If the conversion occurs within the next 3 years, BTC will be at ~15-16 mil total coins mined, hence the price projection might be adjusted to $55000-58000/BTC under this scenario. A very good deal at the current $494 . |
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How about this. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/18/business/walmart-to-offer-customers-money-transfers-between-stores.html?_r=0Walmart said that its new service, especially for larger money transfers, will be cheaper than the alternatives. Transfers of up to $50 will cost $4.50 and transfers of up to $900 — the maximum amount customers can send in a day — will cost $9.50.
According to a fee estimator on Western Union’s website, sending $900 within the United States could cost as much as $76 when done in person. MoneyGram’s website estimated that the same transaction would cost $73. Should be easy peasy for bitcoin to pick up these customers, unless they like to pay 10%. |
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. . . Not many are in real life prepared for $100k per bitcoin this year, even though it is possible. It may ruin many people's life more than bitcoin going to zero.
Ha. Our log trend models predict an average price of $100k per bitcoin in about 18 months. What difference does 12 months make when it comes to ruining people's lives? I don't think that it is much of a problem for most . After all, there are only 10K people with 100 coins or more. So, they will have >=$10 mil. $ 1 mil is quite modest and widespread in US if you count all assets (house, retirement, etc.). Having 10 times more would not be a life changer in any way, but fully securing retirement. There are roughly 29 mil millionaires in the world, so adding another 10 or even 100K people would not make a dent numbers-wide. What I am seriously interested in is the recent side-chain proposal. Essentially, anyone with a large stash of bitcoins can become a corporation (aimed at new business ventures) while securing the entire new sidechain with their bitcoin. |
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What is this crap with disappearing-appearing-disappearing supply that seems to be tied up to price fluctuations?
It starts to look very opportunistic.
Are there going to be any more S2 batches?
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