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10281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 22, 2020, 08:24:59 AM
..............
 ....(if you have read any of my ramblings) ....
..............

Oh come on now jay... let's be serious, everyone in here reads every last word of your "ramblings".
Why, I have no idea why you would think otherwise....

Wow... I thought that only JSRAW read all my posts in their entirety... of course, while taking detailed notes too, just in case there might be a test, later.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Mmmm so JJG you’re always awake?

I am only awake when I am not sleeping.   Wink

Thinking about changing to linux soon. -ish. Before the next windows version, at the latest. Long time e-friend nerd recommended linux mint. Looks user friendly. Anyone using it? Can recommend/not recommend?


Been using Mint for about a year and a half now. As a complete IT-noob, I was able to find instructions on how to make a bootable stick, install successfully and set it up aftwerwards (thanks to YT).

Upsides:
Easy to handle, no forced updates, no AntiVirus needed, flexible in customization/appearence, comes with lots of pre-installed s/w.

Downsides:
Had driver problems with integrated GPU lots of times because my Ryzen 7 (from march 2019) was seemingly not fully supported by the latest version at that time (has changed now with the latest mint version available), gaming on Linux is still a struggle despite Steam/Proton, trouble shooting can also be a challenge if you don`t find the answer to your problem easily on google/YT (and even then results of success may vary).

Bottom line:
I will stick with Linux for everyday activities on the net, but am thinking about getting an extra machine with MS for gaming only.
Alternatively, there is a new Brazilian distro - Linuxfx 10 - out that is not only supposed to look like Win 10, but also to be able to handle .exes (so far, from what I know, it is in Portuguese only, though).

Hope that helped.

P. S.: Hi everybody.

You happen to know anything about bitcoin?  Just asking.

Hi.   Wink


...for a friend?

Hi JJG

And thank you to everyone who gave me my first merits. I appreciate it.

I was asking for myself mostly.  I don't have any friends.   Cry Cry
10282  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discuss on: June 22, 2020, 08:21:15 AM
Stop saying “My Nigga” or I’m going to kneel on your neck for 9 minutes. LOL

If you do, will the whole world start rioting & stealing shit because of my demise?

Probably not Wink

LOL yeah, me either. If someone kneeled on my neck they would probably win a free meal at Denny’s and a six pack of Budweiser.

hahahahaha

True dat.

You had not been too appreciated in the forum in recent times (last year or so), but at least you have not been banned, so far.

How are you feeling in regards to bitcoin? I recall that sometimes you can go through some unreasonably bearish and even worldly pessimistic phases, hopefully you have not sold too many of your satoshis in anticipation for summer shopping or some other out of touch world perspective?   Tongue  **

**Please note that I am largely attempting to razz you and stir your pot a bit, QuestionAuthority, because I had not seen you around in these parts very much recently, so I don't mean any ill-will.. that's for sure, and would not mind getting some kind of on-the-ground QA updates from you (as a BTC OG), even if there might be some variance in our perspectives..  Doesn't hurt to have some variance from time to time.. and maybe some of us might be able to welcome you back by get pissed off at you.. for asserting that you are cashing out a decent percentage of your BTC for early Christmas shopping or some nonsense like that.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I’m doing pretty good Jay. Laying low until this whole death-by-virus shit ends.

Many of us are doing some variation of the laying low thing, even if we might say that we are not...

Sure, there are some people who are attempting to continue to carry out a lifestyle as if the virus did not exist at all, but seems that there are not too many places in the world that any of us would be completely removed from such precautions that are likely even self-imposed if they might not be very regulated in your jurisdiction.


I don’t come to this forum very much anymore.

Of course, I noticed that part in terms of your posting, but I suppose there are some folks who might read threads but just not post.  Personally, I find the forum to be much more valuable when interacting rather than merely reading.. but to each their own.

It just doesn’t seem valid now.

hahahaha

Now, I recall that you had been making those arguments previously too, which seem more like some kind of butt hurt perspective rather than having any kind of solid and meaningful interpretation of facts.

I suppose when a forum is earlier in its being built, the community is going to be smaller, and of course, aspects of the space is going to change too with the passage of time, but still I don't even consider some kind of practical way that a forum like this would be able to preserve some kind of locked in time approach, but sure if you feel that the forum has grown in a way that is different from your expectations and preferences, then that could be a fair enough viewpoint in deciding the level of your participation, if any.



I’m still a bitcoin purist and this place is mostly for shitcoins now.

I did a quick refresh of my memory of some of your posts, and I doubt that you had ever been a bitcoin purist - even though I understand that I should attempt to give you some amount of the benefit of the doubt and to take you at your word in regard to your own self-description.  There does tend to be some validity in terms of how people might view themselves and self-describe, even though your post history seems to be all over the place on the topic of your bitcoin commitment.... and below is a good post, just as an example. 

Furthermore, I recall personally battling with you regarding some of your negging on bitcoin at around that late 2015 time and even your ongoing suggestion (in a seemingly trolling kind of way) that there was some kind of prudence in using your bitcoins for then purported Christmas spending.

Quote
You seem to have a clue

I am a speculator just as we all are. If I had access to control a trust fund for a percentage commission, I would be a much happier speculator.

With that said, I am rooting for a massive $600 attempt and testing. The $500-$600 correction in the middle (towards the top) will be more violent than the one between $400-$500. Weak hands will show. Strong hands will be hitting like fight club.

Thanks, I guess I'll just plan my sell off on a date instead of a dollar mark. I'll buy back sometime next year and will have made a tidy little profit for Christmas spending. If it continues to rise then buying back next year won't hurt me, my profit will just be less. If the price drops next year then I'll make even more money waiting for it to go up again.


Furthermore, as Biodom mentioned above, in this thread, active members of the WO keep a lot of the shitcoin discussions out of this thread, and also there are a decent number of threads in the forum that focus on bitcoin - including the fact that there are rules in the forum that require posters to stay on the thread topic (although this thread seems to be largely exempted from such stay on topic rules including that infofront maintains a decently liberal approach to allowing topics that deviate from the OP, but we largely seem to self-police in terms of bashing shitcoin pumpers, in this thread.. or even the bitcoin naysayers, those fucks.. hahahahaha). 

I think that largely members in this thread have been pretty good in keeping shitcoin posters and bitcoin naysayers out of this thread, even though it is inevitable that some will infiltrate from time to time and sometimes even persist here for much longer than they should.. but this thread does seem to be mostly bitcoin maximalist focused to the extent that we discipline ourselves enough to stay on topic...

Of course the virus and other macro economic factors have been getting a lot of attention in the past half year or so.. but that still can be tied into bitcoin discussions, too, and even if some might consider our bitcoin focus to potentially be lacking in our receptivity towards negative ideas about bitcoin, I believe that we still are pretty tolerant to people who present negative ideas about bitcoin and attempt to back up what they are saying beyond just spouting out nonsense altcoin pumpener talking points.



I have a few coins left in cold storage and I’ll probably end up willing them to my kids when I die because I don’t see the million dollars a coin happening in my life time.

I am not trying to denigrate you personally, but I would conjecture that there has probably something that has NOT been quite right with your mindset in regards to BTC, including your strategy that seems to have had not been adequately focused on DCA, HODLing, buying on dips strategies etc.

Of course, in retrospect, we might be able to make such assertions stronger, but really if you think about it, in late 2015 when bitcoin had just peaked to $500 and then had corrected down to largely bounce between $350 and $450 for the next 7 months or so until about May 2016, you were posting in the forum about strategies to sell to buy things for christmas rather than more prudent strategies of either DCAing your bitcoin stacking, or buying on dips and things like that.   

So surely, I would not be very surprised if over the years you had not accumulated a lot of bitcoin if you had been so inclined to sell your BTC, even then... and how would you even be able to accumulate BTC at higher prices if you had lacked confidence in bitcoins going up when it was largely bouncing between $350 and $450.

Sure, you may come back and say that you made profits and rationalize your late 2015 behavior as prudent, but still there are quite a few of us who have been largely stacking through thick and thin and maintain a decent amount of accumulation focus, and sure I tend to sell a few coins as the BTC price is going up, but my BTC sales have not really tended to be a very high percentage of my overall BTC holdings, and there are a lot of other successful members who mostly do not sell their coins at all, they just continue to DCA, buy on dips and just keep preparing on a more long term basis that does not fuck around with any kind of selling of their BTC component.. and that ongoing accumulation strategy seems to work pretty well, overall.. and we even had decent ideas in 2014/2015/2016 that such a strategy of DCA, buy on dips and HODL were decent long term BTC accumulation strategies that would likely pay off well in the long run, even if it could take 2 or 3 exponential BTC price cycles for HODLers to accumulate enough BTC that the value of their BTC holdings would end up rising to "life changing" levels.

By the way, if you are currently concluding that your bitcoin/satoshi stash remains way too insignificant to make any kind of meaningful difference in your life, then you likely have not stacked enough of them and you are continuing to fail/refuse to stack a sufficient and meaningful amount of them.

Sure, of course, your forum registration is more than a year before mine, so presumably you got into bitcoin more than a year before me.  Sure, of course, you may have made a decent number of mistakes to cause you to stack way fewer sats than me, at least in proportion to your other investments and other stuff going on in your life, but there still can be ways to learn from your mistakes. 

Let's say that you had $6k per year that you could have been using to stack sats, and you pissed away all of your stacking in the first few years, you still could have stacked some later, and even if you only stacked a few BTC, you could supplement such BTC stacking starting today rather than continuing to be deficient in the amount of your BTC stash.

Really, even though $1million per BTC remains possible, it seems to be ridiculous to be planning your BTC stacking in such a way that you have to get $1million per BTC before you can profit stupendously from bitcoin.  Many of us realize that a million or even $100k would be nice, but we do not need those kinds of BTC prices in order to become stupendously rich or to profit stupendously from our bitcoin investment.. those higher prices are icing on the cake, rather than absolute necessities to profit stupendously from bitcoin investing.

Even if you had fucked up and sold most or all of your BTC in the $350 to $450 range, you still could have stacked at higher bitcoin prices and still have been stupendously profitable today with bitcoins bounding around in the mid-$9k levels.  Seems unrealistic to me to have one of the greatest gifts of asymmetric possible upside staring you in the face for the past 7.5 years, but you conclude that the ONLY way that you can meaningfully profit from bitcoin is for bitcoin to reach something like $1million per coin.

I am not going to proclaim that I did not make quite a few mistakes with my bitcoin that were a bit dumb and lacking in proper precautions, but still even with my decently major mistakes related to bitcoin, my bitcoin investment has outperformed all of my other investments together, even while I made fewer mistakes with those other investments in terms of losing vast sums of value along the way.. but even if you fuck up in bitcoin, some of the upside potential can stupendously offset those mistakes to the upside to still cause you to appear as if you are a quasi-genius, so long as you had been able to stack a meaningful quantity of sats along the way... and even now, it is not too late... I can recall all kinds of people through the years proclaiming that it is too late for them, blah blah blah.. when that ends up being pure bullshit and they continue to make those kinds of claims (which are likely to be proven wrong, again) but if you look at DCA techniques, the longer that you zoom out, the better overall the bitcoin DCA'ing tends to perform, and there is no reason to conclude that bitcoin's future price performance is not going to continue to offer similar upside potential in a kind of asymmetric bet kind of way.

I got tired of trying to gleen out a few bucks from guessing Bitcoins peaks and valleys.

Well, that might have been part of the problem that you had in terms of valuing your wealth in "bucks" rather than valuing the stacking of bitcoins (or satoshis).  It seems that I already made my point about the value of ongoing DCAing, buying on dips and HODLing.



I’m into weed now. Legal marijuana chain stores are where it’s at now. My cannabis shares have even proven to be pandemic proof. People love to get stoned. It’s better than alcohol, more addicting, more expensive, more renewable, easier to produce and cheaper to produce. It even has medicinal value. It’s the perfect investment.

It is nice that you have found another investment in which you are comfortable, and for sure any BTC maximalist (or purist) might want to supplement his/her investment with various other investments, but still understand that the value proposition of bitcoin remains different from something like cannabis, even if there might be some ways that anyone could invest into such (shitcoins)...

In a similar vein, I like hookers, lambos and blow too, but maybe I am thinking of those as consumption goods that my bitcoin allow me to get based on long term considerations... I am not completely poo pooing your cannabis investment distraction, but even if you proclaim to be a supposed bitcoin purist, you also seem to get easily distracted by consumption and other bells and whistles rather than focusing on making sure that your sat stack is sufficient and meaningful.. which sat stacking does not need to distract you from other pursuits, either...

Of course, your choice regarding your particulars and whether you consider that stacking sats is in line with what bitcoin "purists" might consider to be an important approach in terms of aligning your actions and your words and your actions, especially if you are referring to yourself as such a purported bitcoin  "purist."
10283  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2020, 08:46:37 PM
Price projection for the next few days



I suppose that the bright side of your BTC price prediction going into late July (up before down) is better than down before up, no?
Can we touch 8000$ before going up because I am feeling this can touch 8000$ figure in July then we will go on some good high.

Can't you leave good enough alone, Indymoney?  You party poop!!

Finally, we have a random unimportant bitcoin naysayer wannabe sorcerer drawing squigg-a-lie lines like a 6-year old proclaiming "UP" before "DOWN"...    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Why screw up the rare jupiter9-like karma?

 Angry Angry Angry Angry Angry
10284  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2020, 08:16:21 PM
Price projection for the next few days



I suppose that the bright side of your BTC price prediction going into late July (up before down) is better than down before up, no?
10285  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2020, 07:01:34 PM
Stop saying “My Nigga” or I’m going to kneel on your neck for 9 minutes. LOL

If you do, will the whole world start rioting & stealing shit because of my demise?

Probably not Wink

LOL yeah, me either. If someone kneeled on my neck they would probably win a free meal at Denny’s and a six pack of Budweiser.

hahahahaha

True dat.

You had not been too appreciated in the forum in recent times (last year or so), but at least you have not been banned, so far.

How are you feeling in regards to bitcoin? I recall that sometimes you can go through some unreasonably bearish and even worldly pessimistic phases, hopefully you have not sold too many of your satoshis in anticipation for summer shopping or some other out of touch world perspective?   Tongue  **

**Please note that I am largely attempting to razz you and stir your pot a bit, QuestionAuthority, because I had not seen you around in these parts very much recently, so I don't mean any ill-will.. that's for sure, and would not mind getting some kind of on-the-ground QA updates from you (as a BTC OG), even if there might be some variance in our perspectives..  Doesn't hurt to have some variance from time to time.. and maybe some of us might be able to welcome you back by get pissed off at you.. for asserting that you are cashing out a decent percentage of your BTC for early Christmas shopping or some nonsense like that.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
10286  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2020, 06:44:36 PM
Thinking about changing to linux soon. -ish. Before the next windows version, at the latest. Long time e-friend nerd recommended linux mint. Looks user friendly. Anyone using it? Can recommend/not recommend?


Been using Mint for about a year and a half now. As a complete IT-noob, I was able to find instructions on how to make a bootable stick, install successfully and set it up aftwerwards (thanks to YT).

Upsides:
Easy to handle, no forced updates, no AntiVirus needed, flexible in customization/appearence, comes with lots of pre-installed s/w.

Downsides:
Had driver problems with integrated GPU lots of times because my Ryzen 7 (from march 2019) was seemingly not fully supported by the latest version at that time (has changed now with the latest mint version available), gaming on Linux is still a struggle despite Steam/Proton, trouble shooting can also be a challenge if you don`t find the answer to your problem easily on google/YT (and even then results of success may vary).

Bottom line:
I will stick with Linux for everyday activities on the net, but am thinking about getting an extra machine with MS for gaming only.
Alternatively, there is a new Brazilian distro - Linuxfx 10 - out that is not only supposed to look like Win 10, but also to be able to handle .exes (so far, from what I know, it is in Portuguese only, though).

Hope that helped.

P. S.: Hi everybody.

You happen to know anything about bitcoin?  Just asking.

Hi.   Wink
10287  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2020, 06:08:58 PM
https://twitter.com/selfbankt/status/1274272910870446080?s=20
Quote
Gradually, then suddenly . . .

The Times, Saturday June 20th :

"I cashed in my funds to invest in bitcoin. It may be volatile, but even seasoned investors are taking a small punt on the leading cryptocurrency."


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-cashed-in-my-funds-to-invest-in-bitcoin-wzfjh52j9
https://archive.vn/khpRa

yay boomers

Don't call me a party poop, you fucks.. but here goes:

Even after reading through the article, I am not clear regarding how much of 83 year old David's investment portfolio that he decided to put into bitcoin, and it looks like a few hundred here and there, so maybe he did not invest very much, even though his situation seems to be getting a decent amount of hype.

At his age, I am not even sure if he can confidently assert that he has a 5-year investment time horizon.  So I would have a difficult time recommending even my common asserted initial investment range of 1% to 10% of your quasi-liquid assets, because with such a likely short-term investment horizon, 83 year old David should not be considered as really investing, but instead a kind of gambling on the shorter term, and of course, if you are gambling, you should be making sure that you are only using relatively small amounts, even if he might end up gambling on the correct outcome...

As many of you here likely realize by now (if you have read any of my ramblings) I tend to NOT be very passionate about gambling nor about posters who come into this thread and encourage gambling, especially if they are suggesting gambling as an investment strategy for the general population (gambling takes a lot of skills) and especially for 83 year olds who might not have a lot of time to recover if they gamble incorrectly...

So just given the fact that 83 year old David has an investment time-horizon of something in the couple of years arena, (and it seems that there was some kind of quote in the article that attributed David's expectation that BTC could triple in value in the next couple of years), I would recommend an allocation that is less than my normal for David which would be in the 1% to 3% range for the average 83 year old that might only have a couple of years to invest and maybe even on the lower end, depending on their circumstances, of course.

I would recommend only a higher portion to go into BTC if such an 83 year old really could afford to lose the whole amount invested because that 83 year old investor is otherwise way more wealthy than he can even expect to be able to spend in his remaining years, then if that is the case, then maybe such a typical 83 year old could go above the 3% range - and surely, he would be in a better position to understand the particulars of his situation than me, but I am just responding to the general idea of a typical 83 year old who might be considering diversifying into bitcoin (when they should already be in a kind of liquidation stage of their investment lives) and based on that picture he does not necessarily look like he has any kind of genetic gift or perhaps luck that would cause him to be outside of the typical 83 year old - except maybe it appears that he is not disabled yet and he does not seem to have dementia setting in, based on the assumptions, so I would not expect him to be outside of the range of a typically healthy 83 year old that would allow him to have an investment timeline that is greater than a couple of years, at best.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy    Tongue Tongue Tongue


Note:  I edited the above message- even while I notice that I was being responded to (Biodom?  maybe others?) - after reading the article that V8 provided that is outside of the paywall (thanks for that) .
10288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2020, 05:31:44 PM
Nice discussion! Just too many things happening IRL that I can only skim through the posts, let alone replying...

[edited out]

"So I got out", you said. That's what I mean by not being a wage slave. You saw that you were becoming one, so you decided to change things. Wage slavery is when you are afraid to make changes and endure a life of misery by spending half your life doing things you don't want to do, especially when you know you can do much better. I consider myself blessed in that respect, because I'm currently getting paid very well to do things so interesting and exciting that I would gladly pay for to do. But if things go south and I feel I need to change something, I will certainly try to change it.

It seems to me that anyone could get sucked into a kind of complacency, and I cannot even really blame them for getting sucked in.

The more curious that you are, and the more that you continue to attempt to build your skills and to make sure that you have options, the less likely that you might get sucked into one profession that either becomes boring, or you feel that you are being exploited because you are not being advanced through the ranks in order to be able to transition into the learning and development of new skills.

Surely, if the promotion rates are small or the industry is shrinking, we could end up kind of getting fucked because we might have and some false reliance upon the direction of the industry and whether our skills were going to be valued with the passage of time.

When I was gaining my independence in the 80s and 90s, I had recognized various computer related programing and development to be lucrative and future oriented skills, but I never personally developed those skills because I had other interests, even though I could recognize a decent amount of future-poofing into  developing those kinds of skills - perhaps so long as you do not get too trapped into some jobs that are too narrowly focused.. that might end up not giving you either upward promotion potential or the ability to laterally move if you were to want to exercise such option.

Of course, tying this into bitcoin could be that someone who has a decent amount of skills in software, hardware and firmware (whatever the fuck that is?) could develop bitcoin skills on the side, and of course, many of us also realize that we might not need to know shit about any of the technicals to be able to invest in bitcoin, but investing in bitcoin might still take 10-20 years or even more to really get to fuck you status, especially if you are only able to garner $100 per month (or some modest amount) to be able to invest into stacking sats.

Whether we are talking about personal employment skills or even side investments, each of us continues to have some obligations to attempt to secure our own future by trying to make sure that whatever investments that we are making, whether we are investing into building skills or we are investing financially is to be attempting to avoid getting trapped without hardly any options, so of course, when we are younger, we might have very few skills and maybe very little finances to be able to exercise a wide variety of options, but if we have any kind of brain (even if we might be mentally challenged) we can strive to build our skills and our finances in a way that builds our options..  Most humans have abilities to learn skills, but it takes work too, and sure there is luck involved too, while ongoing preparations and not going to crazy with burning your capital or your bridges will likely lead to more situations in which you are able to run into "lucky" breaks along the way.

....  Just too many things happening IRL that I can only skim through the posts, let alone replying...


same. will catch up soon. meanwhile

@sassal0x

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Case in point.

If you get involved in stupid-ass shit coins.  This is what your investment life is going to look like.. good luck with juggling that shit.
10289  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2020, 04:57:16 PM
I have some troubles with understanding that article, VB1001, and the points of the article sinking in because the objectives that they are describing seem to be a fools errand to attempt to spot manipulation or to avoid it.

Well, maybe, the hidden walls. Wink

That might be the essence of my struggles with such content since I seem to prefer my walls as "not hidden"  - like this one:



 Wink Wink
10290  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is another type of fiat money according to the New York Fed on: June 21, 2020, 04:34:23 PM
This is painfully obvious of the big picture he's missing here.  All these other types of monies are backed by the good faith/promise of a governed nation.  Bitcoin is obviously completely free of a centralized control , whos value is not promised by a bunch of bullshit like any fiat money is.
In a sense, Lee has a point, bitcoin does not have a value in itself, and I do not think that he is missing the bigger picture instead it is vice versa, you see bitcoin as a panacea for all your problems, try to see both sides of the coin figuratively. It is better if we were to listen and understand instead of blindly following. I might be wrong though and I accept it.

You are likely wrong.

There is a difference between having a valid point, and seeming to deliberately misconstrue various arguments by perverting definitions which confuses and tends to mislead.

Still, even if bullshit and misleading arguments are presented, we can still talk about the various points, including whether:

1) bitcoin has value in itself
or
2) bitcoin investors believe that bitcoin is a panacea for all world problems.

You, yourself, Lorence.xD, are creating your own baloney arguments in order to attempt to find some value in the arguments presented by Michael Lee, but even your nonsense points could provoke some potential valuable discussion points including exploring some of your own presumptions.

1) The longer that bitcoin exists, the more likelihood that the ways in which it has value increases by more and more use cases and more and more people and institutions adopting it and building upon it.  You might not recognize such value and other people and/or governments might not recognize such value, but that does not mean that bitcoin is not building value with the passage of time through a variety of expansion of network effects.... which of course, are not inevitably upwards, either... value could go up, but it might go down too.... with the passage of time, but seems to me that bitcoin is continuing to go up in value with the passage of time because its network effects seem to be increasing with the passage of time (which I concede is not inevitable).

2) bitcoin investors believe all kinds of shit.  You know the expression that there are as many opinions as there are assholes, which likely undermines your presumption that bitcoiners have similar views about what bitcoin can do for themselves or for the world.  Of course, especially in recent times, we have seen a decent amount of evidence that there are a lot of problems with the current monetary system, and there are a lot of great arguments that bitcoin could fix a lot of the bullshit by just having a system of money that takes out some of the abilities to manipulate the supply, but currently bitcoin seems to be at much less than 1% of world-wide adoption, so bitcoin hardly seems to be in a position to fix all of those monetary supply corruption things in any kind of immediate time frame, even though it does seem to continue to present itself as a monetary (asset class) system that is much more difficult to manipulate and without some of the physical encumbrances as compared with a variety of traditional assets whether we are comparing with fiat or gold or oil or real estate.  In any event, seems to me that you are creating a strawman argument, Lorence.xD , when you are attempting to attribute the mantra of bitcoin fixes everything to the beliefs of all bitcoiners, to the extent that any actual bitcoiner believes that bitcoin fixes everything rather than believing that bitcoin might assist to provide incentives to fix a lot of things... Sometimes there are valid reasons to exaggerate certain points, such as suggesting that bitcoin fixes everything, to allow acceptance and consideration of perhaps progressing in a more monetary responsible and monetary neutral direction, which bitcoin seems to incentivize, even if it could take a long time for a variety of sound money incentives to play out over 50 years or more... but bitcoin likely contributes to a positive direction and provides a sound money option that does not seem to exist to anywhere the same degree with other currently existing asset classes.
10291  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2020, 06:12:18 AM
3 Ways Bitcoin Traders Can Spot and Avoid Crypto Market Manipulation

https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-ways-bitcoin-traders-can-spot-and-avoid-crypto-market-manipulation

I have some troubles with understanding that article, VB1001, and the points of the article sinking in because the objectives that they are describing seem to be a fools errand to attempt to spot manipulation or to avoid it.

Just crazy... and I would likely go crazy or something close to crazy if I were to attempt to try to achieve those seemingly impossible objectives of spotting and avoiding manipulation.

Instead what I do, and I even recommend that others attempt some variation of what I do (I suppose that is why I talk about my strategy so much... hahahahaha), and that is to attempt to take advantage of likely inevitable BTC price manipulation about whatever is the price direction and don't hardly give two fucks about whether you can see such manipulation or not or even whether such manipulation exists.

Of course, you are not in as great of a position to take advantage of such seemingly inevitable manipulation if you are still in a BTC accumulation phase because when you are in a BTC accumulation phase you just want to continue to buy BTC on an ongoing basis, no matter what until you reach your target accumulation objective (or something close to your target accumulation objective - especially if you are young you might consider yourself to be accumulating on a pretty long term basis because it takes a long time to stack sats, whether 1 sat at a time or some more aggressive variation), so one of the main ways to take advantage of the seemingly inevitable manipulation is attempting to buy on BTC price dips.. but don't get too worked up if the BTC price ends up getting manipulated upwardly rather than downwardly because you just would be regularly buying anyhow.. whether that is daily, weekly, monthly or some other variation.

Once you achieve a bit of an over-accumulation the quantity of BTC that you would like to achieve (and perhaps maintain), then once you are in a kind of over accumulation status (feeling, perhaps?), you should not mind shaving off a bit of BTC when the BTC price is manipulated up because 1) you have already over accumulated and 2) if the BTC price gets manipulated down at some later unknown time, then you have a bit of extrafiat (no skin off your back) in which to buy some more of king daddy.  

In the longer and maybe even medium run (even though something as short as the medium run could take a few years to play out) most of us have a pretty high level of confidence that the BTC price are going to go up.. just that the going up is not regular even in the short to medium, too... but we have a decent amount of confidence that the longer tha you zoom out the more likely the BTC price is trending up, even if just the bottoms rather than the tops seem to be inching up here and there in a slow motion feeling, but the medium to longer roads in bitcoinlandia do continue to seem to have great likelihoods of trending up...

So, having all this good stuff working in your favor (if you happen to be a BTC accumulator and HODLer) why get all worked up about attempting to spot or to avoid BTC price manipulation when you realize that BTC price manipulation is almost inevitable too, you just cannot really know what direction, for how long or to what degree.. so why waste psychological or financial fuel in that direction except to just keep your system?

I think that I have kind of described my presumption problems with that article, which is that I cannot really get the point of attempting to achieve what they are suggesting to work on which is the spotting and avoiding of manipulation.. which just seems to be a selfie-destructive approach to both your psychology and likely your finances, too... fuck the manipulators.. who fucking cares.. let them do what they are going to do... doesn't matter because your system already accounts for them while realizing that there is only so much that they can do about the ongoingly likely BTC price trend, UPpity.
10292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2020, 12:05:53 AM
a $92K annual drawdown on $2.3M. Not shabby, but neither is it anywhere near what I was making when I was a wage slave. And I ain't typical retirement age yet, so allowances need be made to extend the principal that many more years.
[edited out]

Spot on!

Steve Jobs once said: "For the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: 'If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?' And whenever the answer has been 'No' for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something."

Calling yourself a wage slave for too long means you really need to change something in your life. Not all people can achieve getting enjoyment from work.

There should be some choice in the kinds of work that we do,

Probably fuck you status continues to be somewhat about having the option to do stuff that others may or may not agree with because it is your choice to engage in such activity(ies), and not strictly something(s) that you are doing because you have to in order to feel monetarily comfortable.

Well, yah. My last job, most of my time was spent in various industry consortia and standards bodies, developing the specifications and standards to which the entire industry adheres to. I really did enjoy the work. But my wages being paid by one of the corporations developing products that adhere to those standards and specifications, my daily priorities were set by that employing corporation.

So once my future economic condition seemed certain, I tendered my resignation. And continued participating -- on a personal basis -- in the various consortia and standards bodies. Did that for another year on my own dime. Just buttoning up the architectures of the standards in which I had a vested interest.

Now I'm done with that too. I follow the developments from afar, but no longer drive them. And spend significant time upon avocation and hobbies.

Sometimes new chapters open, but never really stops some of the reminiscing.  Surely, I am glad to move on from some of my earlier positions, but there can still be some good memories about the good ole days, whether those memories relate to some of the duties, or the relationships with workers or just the fact that we were younger back then... hahahaha

And, sometimes any of us might not be able to tell certain stories, such as "I remember when... blah, blah, blah" if we might be outside of an audience who might be able to relate to such a story.... Some stories just don't work well or even at all with certain audiences.

Some other factors could be speculating about:

1) "if I knew then what I know now........"

or

2) "if I had accumulated the same amount of wealth then as I have now......."

or sadder

3) "I wished that now I had the energy that I had back then...... "

You might have some other examples of what ifs... or just ways to attempt to learn how to go forward now based on what you may have learned and/or experienced in the past... and some of the details of those memories might fade a bit, too... or even considering which parts are important... and might keep coming back into memory.
10293  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2020, 10:18:43 PM
Good discussion...
When you feel burned out, it most definitely means that something has to change.
I am only 9 years into my second career cycle. So far so good, but who knows how long that feeling would last.
Having bitcoin as a 'hobby' certainly helped as it makes things interesting, especially when I had to learn a thing or two about it.

One point regarding drawn-downs: I cannot imagine myself stopping accumulation and starting a strict draw-down. I think this would make me feeling empty and/or exposed.
Spending from IRA just does not feel right and I am not even talking about selling btc for spending. It would be difficult to overcome the hodling philosophy.

Of course, there are three main phases that any long term investment should attempt to follow, and even though those phases might not be pure in their form, they do tend to dominate at certain stages that coincide with beginning, middle and end.

The three stages are accumulating, maintaining and liquidating, and so sure, you are correct Biodom that it would likely NOT make too much sense if you would bounce between accumulating and liquidating because then you would no longer be engaging in any kind of long term investment but instead either trading or gambling with that portion of your BTC holdings.

You certainly have to judge where you are at with your own investment, including comfort levels to transition from one stage to the next or how much of a mixture you might deem reasonable to employ based on your own assessment of your investment in BTC based on your personal circumstances that would of course include all of the basic considerations of cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and time, skills and abilities to research, plan or strategize in terms of your investment whether that involves reallocating or trading or tweaking your approach.




@jbreher and @JJG were discussion spending $92K from a $2.3mil account as an exercise, 4% yearly and all...
That's all peachy, unless either $ value significantly declines or, alternatively, market would not appreciate for, say, 20-30 years.
Then, all money is gone in 25 years, someone is a 90 year old man (if you start at 65) in relative poverty (if social programs collapse or become highly insufficient).

The 4% is a traditional base amount that presumes that the value of your investment will average at least that level of appreciation on an annual basis, so that when you are withdrawing the presumption is that the principle value is largely unchanged based on that level of withdrawal.  Of course, if you are not able to achieve an average of a 4% return, then sure you could reduce the amount or reconsider what you are investing in.. but the 4% is widely accepted as being a principle preserving amount, so in that case, if you were to stick with 4%, then your principle would never be depleted, and you could continue to withdraw at that rate in perpetuity... if you are not able to achieve the in-perpetuity withdrawal rate, then sure, you might either need to tweak it down or to reconfigure your investments.


I tend to believe that 4% is hogwash and recent events show that we don't know what to expect down the pike.
It is probably wise to have some residence paid out by 65; at least take this part of the equation out.

Regarding yearly withdraws: 3% sounds much more realistic, at least I use this number for calculations.

Fair enough... You can use whatever number you like, and if you under withdraw, then you are just left with more principle, and sure that might work, but it also might cause you to delay pulling the fuck you lever because you are too conservative in your expectations... and in the end, it is totally up to you to pick your comfort level and hopefully understand the tradeoffs in your tweaking the assumptions.


You can use your BTC stash as collateral for a 5% interest rate personal loan - borrow $10,000 with $40,000 of BTC
Celsius.network

I've earned interest with them for a year now, a good business.

Interestingly, blockchain.com (the one that used to be blockchain.info) says that it would pay YOU 4.5% on btc in their custody account.
Not sure whether it is in btc or in fiat. Seems to be a better deal, not sure what conditions are, though.

The conditions might be that you are fucked by leaving your keys with a third party when it is not necessary to risk leaving your shit with a third party in order to feel comfortable with the likelihood that your underlying asset (namely BTC in this case) is likely to appreciate in value at least 4% per year on average while you keep complete control over the keys.
10294  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2020, 09:18:37 PM
Calling yourself a wage slave for too long means you really need to change something in your life. Not all people can achieve getting enjoyment from work. Some are incapable, others lazy, others just unlucky, although I don't really believe luck can fully define someone. One can make his/her own luck in life, or he/she falls into the "incapable" category. But at least you've got to try. If you fail, try again, and if you fail again, maybe you're not able to do it, or you need to re-evaluate your goals, and Bitcoin can help in such cases, but not everyone is in this situation. Not everyone is a wage slave.

True. But the actual work of one's career can also change drastically over time, to become much less meaningful.

For example, when I first got into IT programming in the mid 90's, the work was actually very meaningful and fun. We were building business software applications from complete scratch, and there was a sense of passion, creativity and analysis in what I was doing day to day. Programmers could use their brains to bang out code to build custom use cases and custom UIs, were respected and revered, and got paid accordingly for their creative analysis and technical knowledge.

By the time I got out of that career in the 2010's, IT programmers were reduced to simply integrating off-the-shelf, expensive closed-source software into existing business environments. They essentially became glorified software "babysitters", having to spend their days trying to integrate and debug software that was poorly-written by someone else, often with poor performance, poor configuration, archaic APIs, missing or incomplete documentation, lack of expertise, etc. And these software integrations were often initiated under ridiculous time schedules and low/inadequate budgets, with use-case and performance expectations that could not be met in the time allotted. Or ever. It became soul-crushing work, and I started having bouts of anxiety and depression that I never had in the beginning of my IT career.

What the IT career became in the end, was not something had I signed up for in the beginning. So I got out.

No wonder you tend to be so jaded...

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
10295  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is another type of fiat money according to the New York Fed on: June 20, 2020, 09:11:13 PM
It's their theory but it's not convincing at all. It's a bit confusing and unreliable and I think that the only goal behind this is to get attention by some negative publicity. It was obvious that Bitcoin users would not accept that so it's also a kind of attempt to provoke. I wouldn't pay any attention to that article, not worth it.

Some of us are paying attention, even if we are being intentionally provoked and/or trolled.

I personally do NOT believe it is a good idea to let trolls spout out misleading information, so to me it seems like an opportunity to provide our own various talking points and to show how desperate and vacuous some of the fed policies seem to be and to laugh in their faces at their seeming level of misleading bullshit that causes bitcoin to look good, comparatively speaking. 

Some people should be able to learn about what differentiates bitcoin, even from these kinds of nonsensical and misleading juxtaposition attempts.
10296  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2020, 07:48:15 PM
Can't read the article but banks might have no choice than buying negative yelding bonds to follow rules on holdings. Basically to lend money to "risky" companies and people, they have to hold some "non risky" debt.

Funny that the ECB doesn't offer the same deal to actual people.

Yes. My niece took a loan to buy an apartment about a year ago. I was very surprises how high interest bank still take fro lending out money while they get money for no interest them self. I guess in the future bank loans to actual people will have to get to zero

I called my bank for a quick personal 10k loan (I haven't taken a loan since the mid 80's) and they wanted 18%, I was shocked and laughed in the guys face.

Yes, I'd rather take a loan than sell anything right now.

I have found the same kind of gouging... It seems quite outrageous, and maybe it is just a sign of the days being numbered for these traditional institutions and the way they are calculating what is in their interest (as a lender) and/or public duties that they probably have but would rather just gouge or otherwise fuck around with investing in equities (or whatever other free money, gambling or forclosing activities they are doing with their time and money), instead of loaning to regular peeps and/or trying to responsibly build community.
10297  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is another type of fiat money according to the New York Fed on: June 20, 2020, 07:26:28 PM
This guy is actually right  Grin
Fiat money actually means "trust money". Many people think that fiat money are only the paper money printed by the central banks,but this is actually one of the forms of fiat money. Bitcoin is also "trust money" because the people put their trust into BTC and use it as a payment method and a store of value.
The difference between BTC and paper money is the "legal tender" factor,which means that the people are forced by the government to "trust" paper money,while nobody forces them to trust Bitcoin.
His definition of the term "fiat money" is totally right-worthless objects that are trusted by the people as a medium of exchange.

Your attempt to say that Michael Lee is right in his definition fiat is confusing as fuck.

Your definition of fiat and your attempt to agree with Lee is confusing as fuck too.

The concept of fiat, in itself, suggests some entity to be able change the terms of the money at will, and bitcoin does not have that feature - or at least, it would be quite difficult to change bitcoin's money.

You, davis196, might be getting bitcoin mixed up with some shitcoin such as ethereum or one of the bcashes... bitcoin is quite the opposite of fiat.

Furthermore, your throwing in the concept of trust (or maybe you are trying to say that fiat and trust are the same thing, which they are not), of course, there may be some elements of trust that come with having a currency backed by a government or backed by gold or backed by hash power (such as bitcoin), but having trust in bitcoin for whatever reason is a concept that is different from the concept of fiat (even though they both garner trust, but based on different reasons).

Probably, davis196, you need to brush up on your understanding of the meaning of some words (maybe read the dictionary) because you seem to be mixing up ideas in an attempt to make some attempt at a profound point that makes hardly any sense in the context that you presented it.
10298  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2020, 06:51:25 PM
Are these articles coming off as desperate or what?

I've already commented on that here, and I think we can explain statements like this by something we can call the "Lee effect". It seems that little Michael Lee who worked on this discovery, may be a relative of the famous Tom Lee (Fundstrat). Cheesy

Your attempt to lump bobby lee and tom lee with michael lee seems misplaced as fuck in order to attempt to name something in an innovative way, but I do not get the connection because bobby lee and tom lee seem to understand bitcoin fundamentals and frequently present bitcoin fundamentals in ways that are in touch with reality... If you can point out your elaboration or some evidence that supports such a connection, then I will be more than willing to explore this purported "lee connection" a bit more... because I sure do like some innovative ways of presenting matters as long as they are based on reality rather than misleading...

I wonder if Torque has seen this one yet?  Tongue Tongue  I am suspecting that even Torque would not be willing to go down this supposedly fun path.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
10299  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2020, 06:40:32 PM
a $92K annual drawdown on $2.3M. Not shabby, but neither is it anywhere near what I was making when I was a wage slave. And I ain't typical retirement age yet, so allowances need be made to extend the principal that many more years.
[edited out]

Spot on!

Steve Jobs once said: "For the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: 'If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?' And whenever the answer has been 'No' for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something."

Calling yourself a wage slave for too long means you really need to change something in your life. Not all people can achieve getting enjoyment from work.

There should be some choice in the kinds of work that we do, and gosh, when we are really young, and just entering the workforce, we might be put in position that require us to do the most shitty of the jobs within the organization that we work - presumably, we do not start out being the boss, even though some people do get into those kinds of positions where they are
put in charge of things due to their connections (and presumably they are trusted to carry out the interests of the owner/boss).

Seems that we can learn from all kinds of jobs, even the bad ones as long as they do not persist in such a bad status for too long of a time.  Surely, some people do get value out of repetitious jobs, and they consider making a living to be worth their time, and of course, the more that we build our skills (or even our likability or ability to work with others or to be trusted), the more options that we are likely going to have.

Some are incapable, others lazy, others just unlucky, although I don't really believe luck can fully define someone. One can make his/her own luck in life, or he/she falls into the "incapable" category. But at least you've got to try. If you fail, try again, and if you fail again, maybe you're not able to do it, or you need to re-evaluate your goals,

We do likely need to concede that some people are going to have more difficult circumstances that they might be trying to get out of, and of course, many of us might not want to be born into a situation in which we have a lot of obligations that don't seem to allow us to have space for self-development, so sure we might be presuming a bit of luck from the start in terms of having some infrastructure, such as we do not have to walk four hours a day for water or some of those material difficulties.

Also, some people might have difficulties just establishing some discretionary income, even if it is $5 per month that can be stacked away...


and Bitcoin can help in such cases, but not everyone is in this situation. Not everyone is a wage slave.

Of course, we are going to agree that bitcoin can help, even in the most dire of circumstances, even if someone might only be able to stack away $5 per month.

We have already gone over the case that any person who is investing in bitcoin better make sure that they have their shit together in other regards, too, because you don't want to be forced to have to cash out any or all of your BTC at a time that is not completely at your own choosing... but of course, bitcoin remains one of the best asymmetric bets - but I will still say that having at least a  5 year timeline to allow the investment to play out is amongst the current best practices, even for someone in dire circumstances.. and surely, even such person who enters into bitcoin currently, could choose to cash out of bitcoin in all or in part at a time that is less than 5 years from now, so long as they are doing so at their own choosing, and not because they had not planned and prepared to ride it out for at least 5 years.


Reaching "fuck you" richness status should not necessarily mean quitting work, or stopping doing what you're doing. It could mean that you are now able to do more things that were out of your reach before, feeling more secure about your financial situation, enjoying your hobbies and leisure time to the maximum, but continue working on the field you enjoy, and even be much more productive and much more involved now, keeping your brain active and your intellectual abilities in top shape. Many of the super-rich personalities of the world are workaholics, because it's their work that keeps them alive.

Probably fuck you status continues to be somewhat about having the option to do stuff that others may or may not agree with because it is your choice to engage in such activity(ies), and not strictly something(s) that you are doing because you have to in order to feel monetarily comfortable.

Can't read the article but banks might have no choice than buying negative yelding bonds to follow rules on holdings. Basically to lend money to "risky" companies and people, they have to hold some "non risky" debt.

Funny that the ECB doesn't offer the same deal to actual people.

Yes. My niece took a loan to buy an apartment about a year ago. I was very surprises how high interest bank still take fro lending out money while they get money for no interest them self. I guess in the future bank loans to actual people will have to get to zero

Of course, banks frequently figure out ways to screw people who do not have other options, and not only do banks get low interest money, in recent times, they do not even have to maintain any reserves, but they still are going to try to charge you as much as you are willing to pay, and you will pay more, if you have fewer options.
10300  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 20, 2020, 04:47:54 AM

Are these articles coming off as desperate or what?

Sure some people are going to be confused by their nonsense, but they are likely to get laughed at a lot too, especially if we end up going into our expected exponential growth period in the coming weeks or years.. and sure it could take a while for bitcoin's next exponential growth period to play out, including whether we will get several slow migrations upwards that culminates into one peak or possibly two or more peaks that have extensive correction periods that attempt to weed out weak hands along the way into our likely greatest peaceful transfer of wealth in history.
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