Latest posts of: iconoclast

Quote from: mhpg19960612 on August 15, 2018, 04:54:27 AM

In the following year ETH will overwtake BTC as the number 1 cryptocurrency. I would dump your bitcoin while despite everything you can. Undecided

I think it is entirely likely that Ethereum will displace Bitcoin as the largest coin by market cap though I don't know if it will happen within a year. Ethereum has the best use case of any cryptocurrency and is actually more of a platform when you look at all the projects being built on the ERC 20 token standard. Far more developers are working on building things on the Ethereum platform than on Bitcoin. Bitcoin used to be over 80% of the Cryptomarket and this fell to as little as 33% last year before recovering slightly to 54% in the bear market. The next big bull run will see Ethereum displace Bitcoin from its #1 spot.

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage

Quote from: Andrea29 on August 18, 2018, 03:56:42 AM

How to identify if the ICO will succeed??
What is the first THING to do when you are investing on an ICO? Or how can you identify if the ICO will be successful before investing?? As a beginner I don’t know where should I start first before investing, what is the do's and dont's before investing on an ICO??

The first thing should understand is that you are investing in start ups and that a large percentage of even the good one will eventually fail. Having said that you can increase your chances of success by eliminating the outright scams and the ones that are simply cash grabs for unfundable business ideas. The place I always start my due diligence is by looking at the people behind the project. At the end of the day the project will succeed or fail on the strength (and honesty) of the people behind the project. A low risk way of getting an education in how to analyse what makes ICO's succeed or fail is to do a few bounties. It will give you exposure to the ICO process and let you test your due diligence skills.

I have done bounties where the bounty was paid in ETH. The main reason I have seen given for doing it this way was that it would prevent selling by bounty hunters from causing the price of the ICO tokens from falling. It is available as an option for everyone conducting an ICO but is rarely used. I think that more companies fail to use it because they know that blaming a post ICO sell off on bounty hunters is a false narrative and the real culprit for post ICO selling is people buying in during the private sale or presale at a steep discount.

Quote from: Efta321 on August 16, 2018, 11:12:52 AM

I really didn't expect this, what do you think happened to ethereum. will ethereum be back in the near future! I hope that in the near future ethereum will return.

It suffered from a lot of selling from ICO's done in the last year that dumped their ethereum and moved to cash to avoid what they see as a bear market. I don't understand what you mean by "be back in the near future". Ethereum never went away, only the price changed to reflect changes in the short term supply and demand. If you mean will Ethereum come back to the prices it was before, no way of telling when that will happen but the sort of capitulation selling we saw last week is often a sign that the market is about to change direction.

If you have a good project you can still raise money. But if your project is weak you will have a very difficult time. That is not neccessarily a bad thing. The feeding frenzy last year was not normal and led to a lot of scam projects taking substantial sums off unsophisticated investors. What we have now is markets swinging in the other direction as it tries to get back into balance.

Quote from: lightcar on August 17, 2018, 12:27:47 PM

It looks like another scam ICO , I wouldn't put any money into it. Every new project is falling and ends up on exchanges with a price that is much cheaper than the ICO price.

I don't think you even looked at it before giving your opinion. I have examined the project in some detail and it has an experienced team backing it and in my opinion is one of the strongest ICO's currently underway. Maybe you are just against ICO's in general, which is your right. But labelling something a scam just because you can't tell the difference between a good project and a poor one means that they are probably not for you anyway.

I expect that ICO's will exist in the future but how they are done will change. We have seen recently the emergence of exchange sponsored ICO's where an exchange will promote the ICO to its customer base with a guarantee that the coins will be listed on the exchange at the conclusion of the ICO. This offers a lot of advantages from a regulatory perspective in that all the participants will have already gone through a KYC to have an account on the exchange. It also offers some protection to investors that the ICO has been carefully vetted as the exchange will be risking its reputation by acting as sponsor.

I can't speak for everyone but I do both bounties and investing. The skills you need to analyse an ICO are similar for both activities. Bounties are a great place for inexperienced investors to get an understanding of the various stage of the ICO and the risks that are present in each stage. I would encourage anyone who was thinking of investing in ICO's to do a few bounties as a low risk way of gaining experience.

The current bear market we are having was caused by the stumbling attempts at regulation in the wake of the rapid rise in cryptocurrency prices. Since regulation affects all cryptocurrencies we have seen a very high correlation between cryptocurrencies as these concerns are played out. This has caused some investors to shift towards what they feel are safer bets and that has been the cryptocurrency with the longest history. At some point this bear market will end as regulatory risk becomes smaller and we will see less correlation and more coins trading on their individual merits.

Will ETH go to $100 within a year? Maybe. Will ETH go to a $1000 within a year? Probably. Smart people are using the current bear market to add to their position. The dumb people are the ones that are selling at a loss. Investing successfully means doing the opposite of what the crowd is doing. It requires self discipline and control over your emotions and that is why most people fail at it.

I think you overestimate the number of projects that are worthless and underestimate and cost of running a business based on blockchain technology.

I do however agree with your criticism that some projects have raised much more money than they actually need to fulfill the project. From looking at the current market for ICO's the kinds of garbage projects that were raising money 9 months ago are no longer getting funded as the fall in crypto prices has driven out a lot of the stupid money that entered the market last year. Good projects however are still not having trouble raising money.

Markets tend to move in a single direction over time until some sort of catalyst happens that changes the general direction. From May 2015 to January 2018 it was a bull market. From Feb 2018 we have been in a bearish trend. The catalyst for the change was a stumbling regulatory crackdown by securities authorities. How long will it last? No one knows. Some people think it will be when an ETF gets listed. At some point things will change and markets will rise again.