It's halvening.  

We don't fuck around with regular sounding words in bitcoinlandia.  


This time is different.^tm


You forgot the ^tm... next to "face-melting"...

By the way, I remember the use of that term, but I am trying to remember which member used it first...


Oh my!!!!!

That's face-melting^tm

I'm starting to feel a wee bit bullish...

Hahahahaha

nervous on the way up and nervous on the way down, but UP always feels MOAR better.  

Edit:

by the way, I just noticed a little wall of 200 coins for sale at $10k...  .

That should not be too difficult to break through.

Right, boyz?  right?

Could be the last opportunity to get four digit coins.^tm


#Just saying.


You heard it here, first.  Don't shoot the messenger. 

I doubt that the appropriate label for those kinds of people would be "bulltard," and probably a more accurate descriptor would be to label them something like "newbie."  

There are a lot of newbies coming into bitcoin on a regular and ongoing basis.  It is just a part of the drill to any kind of emerging asset class, and we can hardly avoid that a decent number of the "newbies" coming into bitcoin  are going to get burned from time to time, especially in the beginning, because it can take a quite a while to learn about bitcoin and even how to manage and balance it into your finances.

Many of us have to learn by our mistakes rather than learning by text book or even by learning from the mistakes of others.  Sure some people learn faster than others and some people do not even have to make as many mistakes themselves because they are somehow able to learn from the mistakes of others.

I think that there are a large number of us who participate in this thread who have made various bitcoin related mistakes along the way, especially the longer that any of us has been somewhat involved in bitcoin.  Learning takes a while, and sometimes even seemingly veteran bitcoiners make decent-sized mistakes... perhaps Trace Mayer might be an example of such veteran bitcoiner who may have ended up biting more than he can chew and even becoming a bit too arrogant (not humble enough)... Anyhow, mistakes come in all kinds of flavors... like the famous expression: "mistakes were made."  

You are coming off as desperate, SwayStar.




 


Most of us recognize that a BTC correction can happen any time.., and if you keep proclaiming that a BTC correction is imminent, sooner or later you are going to be correct, and then you can inform us in regards to how correct you were... blah blah blah...

Your playbook is already largely understood in these parts and does not really do much if anything.... but maybe it is good for some of us to be reminded, from time to time, that a BTC price correction could happen at any time, even though such correction is far from understood in terms of when it might happen or if it might be imminent.. or inevitable at some point prior to going past $20k-ish.

Call me a party poop.

Even though getting past $10k feels good right now, but really can we break through.. and then can we retain it?

Sure breaking through $10k is one thing and retaining a price above $10k is another thing, and personally, I am already feeling that our current price location is bullish as fuck, so I am not going to be disappointed, even if we correct from here... but who knows?  who knows?

There is a kind of past experience that gives credence to "the trend is your friend," so I feel good about what feels like a current UP trend... yet many of us who have been in this game long enough have been shell-shocked so many times when we have ended up getting dumped on in the midst of what had seemed to have been an uptrend.  

On the other hand, surely no one wants to be that guy who sold too much BTC too soon on the way up including lacking confidence of breaking through $10k and then we end up testing $13,880 within the coming weeks.... Sucks to be that guy.  Sucks to be that guy.

Which one of us was it who said that whenever we get a BTC price doubling in a month, then we should have a clue that a local top has been reached?  Maybe Marcus?

We are coming on the halvening, but we are also coming upon two months since our $3,850 local low.  Right now we are at about 150% above such local low without any meaningful correction...  

I am NOT going to proclaim to know anything, even if you might be able to recognize that currently I am feeling nervous in regards to whether our current location might be slightly overheated....

I am not complaining and I am not really tweaking anything in my BTC approach either (I last tweaked my outstanding BTC buy/sell orders (and approach) around March 24).. so I am largely prepared to just let whatever I had planned and prepared at the latest of my tweakenings to just continue to ride as planned... under the theory of letting the price come to me rather than my attempting to go to the price (or where I might expect it to go.,. which is not much more than 50/50 anyhow).  

In your short-time participation in this thread, SwayStar123, you have been very "insightful" and "helpful"....


Almost to the extent of showing that you hardly know shit......



But, hey, we all have to start somewhere in our bitcoin journey.  right?


Maybe I am just a bit irritated by your purposeful use of a "bulltard" descriptor.... ..  Is there such a thing?  Perhaps there is.....

 It's almost as if you are trying to show yourself as some kind of "smarter than" the rest of us.. but then that causes me to question your own smartness or at least your intentions.

Many participants in this thread have actually made a lot of money over the years, and many times by attempting to employ a fairly simple (but not always easy) three part formula... which would be to 1) DCA....., 2) buy on dips if you can, 3) otherwise HODL......  For some strange reason, following such formula doesn't seem to tarded to me.. even if sometimes following such formula can feel a bit painful.. but it has largely worked, and there seems to be little to no reason to doubt such formula, in spite of your seeming attempts to denigrate the whole image of those who are largely bullish about bitcoin.

I don't want to invite you to inform us about what you might know that we do not know, because it seems that you likely don't hardly know shit.. as I have already mentioned above.

Sure that is a strong investment thesis for bitcoin, including the fact that it can take a decent amount of time for the value proposition to kick in.

So many of us know that the value is up, but we don't really know how long it will take.  

Sure, a lot of us who had been relatively earlier to the BTC party already recognize the gravitational pull aspect of bitcoin that surely is a long term dynamic, but even in the shorter term, some of the more astute traditional investors are going to recognize it too and the earlier ones will likely be rewarded... just like those of us who have been relatively longer in bitcoin have been rewarded and will continue to be rewarded so long as we continue to recognize the value of accumulating, HODLing and not selling too much of our BTC too soon.


Well, sure. If you are referring to the s-curve adoption of bitcoin, then I agree that is NOT likely limited by 7 or 8 weekly candles, so you may have actually gotten me there... touché.

I really do not want to argue that money buys you happiness or will necessarily relieve you of all of your troubles, because surely I agree with any point that merely throwing money at a situation will not resolve the matter, and also if a really poor person receives a shitload of money, but does not know how to manage money, then the problem might not be solved, except merely temporary.


Nonetheless, I believe that on the margins increased savings (such as a cushion) and increased income have the potential to resolve a lot of problems, including the disproportional impacts of crazy ass times like these.  What I am trying to say is that poor people tend to be way more disproportionately negatively impacted than richer people.  Whether they deserve it or not might be another question, but any of us who recognize these kinds of problematic areas should be striving to NOT get ourselves into such situations, if we can avoid it.


Let's say a better off person might have resources and means that result in his/her food costing less than 5% of his monthly budget, so if the price of food doubles or triples because of supply shock disruptions, s/he still has a lot of cushion in which s/he can manage his/her budget and still have extra money... so yeah, instead of having food cost 5% of his/her budget s/he instead ends up paying 10% or even 15% out of his/her budget, but s/he can still manage with the remainder.

There may be a more poor person who spends 25% of his/her budget on food, and so when his/her prices go up 2x or 3x, s/he is left struggling because all of a sudden that expense becomes 50% or 75% of his/her budget.

That is just another example trying to show that certain kinds of problems are going to have magnifying and multiplying effects on people who are either living pay check to paycheck and they have not built a savings, and sure, even  if money might not solve all problems, it can solve a lot of problems for some people who might not have a lot of financial resources.

By the  way, the people who are really struggling do not likely have any way to spare some money for bitcoins, and likely they need to get into a better situation  or even to learn money management skills before they might be able to figure out a budget for bitcoin - including the fact that before investing in anything, including but not limited to bitcoin, a lot of times, the rainy day fund needs to be in order, first.

hahahahaha... funny.... but still...


Pretty lame Globb0





 

Almost any conversation in bitcoinlandia involves price predictions.

I don't know how anyone who is somewhat actively and ongoingly (like PlanB tends to be) involved in bitcoin discussions, rather than some detached dweeb (and there are plenty of them) trying to act like he/she understands bitcoin, can avoid it, even if attempting to present matters "academically."

Don't mean to be a fud dud (or maybe I do?)

Shouldn't we start to worry, a bit?

On the weekly, we have 7 green candles in a row.  We are currently half way through the 8th... and, yes it is green too, so far.

I think that this week's candle will have to close above $8,900-ish in order to remain green, so surely we currently have some cushion, but still how many green candles can we get in a row before we start to worry... not that I am a stickler for anything having to happen based on some little candles, including a correction... because I do recognize that some of the most recent BTC price increase is getting us back to where we were at the end of February.. and the halvening can at least provide some hype, even though the constriction of the new BTC supply will likely not be felt in any kind of meaningful way in the whole of the BTC circulating supply for several months after the halvening.

Moar gooder.^tm

That's probably a pretty good idea, because many of us likely realize that there is no real "all or nothing" in this world, but there may be a lot of dissatisfaction that comes from striving towards an end goal that might never be achieved... however, that should not mean that we should not attempt to be in a place in which we are enjoying ourselves at a lot of points along the way.

Accordingly, we don't necessarily need to be able to say "fuck you" to the man and to be totally enabled to live on either passive income or in some citadel or island that we control in order to be happy, and each of us should be able to recognize that we always have a kind of island, but sure having more wealth gives us way more options within our own island.

So, for example, any of us who has 6 months to 12 months to even 1-2 years saved up in one form or another (whether we are referring to our bitcoin stash or some traditional investments or a combination of these), then we are going to be way more empowered to either say "no" to any employer who might be putting us in what we believe to be an unsafe situation or at least be able to negotiate better terms because we have more options.  So, even if that is not complete fuck you status, it could be something that is working in that direction, and gosh.. might be difficult to figure out, too, when "piss off" status might be achieved.





That is totally prudent and reasonable, and I would wager that a lot of us were in similar circumstances regarding feeling some need to tweak (or at least think about what we have in place, exactly) in order to figure out if our previous plan is sufficient to deal with what appeared to be somewhat changed circumstances, and gosh some of us might have panicked in regard to some of our assets, and we know of at least one seemingly pretty severe situation in regards to panicking in regards to considering bitcoin as part of the problem rather than part of the solution.

Certainly, the amount of cushion that we had created for ourselves is going to help to some extent, and for younger folks a cushion does not always have to do with having a shit ton of assets, because young people might not have a lot of assets built up, but they have time and skills, and so sometimes they are able to leverage in terms of their time and skills rather than their built up assets.

So, giving less emphasis to built up assets does not mean that any of us should be saying fuck all to the goal of building up assets and principle in order to attempt to have more options.... and maybe not screwing things up too much by taking too rash of actions, because even people who panic sold their equities a few weeks ago might be kicking themselves a bit, even if right now they might feel some comfort if they might want to take a bit out of equities on the bounce, even if we cannot really know if equities might continue to pump, but in the end, equities might be part of the package for a lot of people and is likely to be part of the package for people who have been investing a long time, older and have diversified in ways that include some equities - that they might consider writing off as the more risky part of their portfolio.....  in the event that they choose to just let the equity portion of their portfolio ride - even if it already took a hit... but if many of us might have both bitcoin and equities, we might consider that we are sufficiently diversified or hedged because we have a decent amount of bitcoin and feel no compelling reasons to take any drastic measures in terms of even taking some value out of equities because we consider the bitcoin part that we have to be serving as a kind of ongoing decent hedge and even ongoing screwed up macro circumstances has not really undermined our bitcoin investment thesis and how much of an allocation that we have in the bitcoin direction - sure some of us might feel that we want to put more towards bitcoin and many times those are somewhat individual choices, and probably less important for those of us who have already been maintaining a pretty decent stake in bitcoin but more important for people who have little to no stake in bitcoin and accordingly are way too much under invested in that direction.. whether they are less than the 1% to 10% arena or some other amount that might be established upon a bit of prudent reflections. 
 



One thing that many of us (feeling to be more fortunate ones) likely realize when we have done a decent amount of prepping (whether financial or with other resources that we have at our disposal), is that if shit really hits the fan (which is far from certain that it will not), then there are going to be a decent amount of people who are going to be suffering way more than the ones who have made a lot of preparations.. and maybe continuing to act in various regards... ..

yeah, I know you even heard me considering some possible benefits in having a shotgun as a kind of supplemental preparation, and sure there might be circumstances in which those kinds of measures are not possible or practical, but even though some gun availability has gone down in various location - which seems to have caused a lot of upwards pressures on the prices, having decent financial resources does tend to resolve some of those problems, too.    Some people might be thinking about whether they can buy steaks and other kinds of fresh foods, but then they might also be thinking that if they buy good food, then they might not be able to buy that supplemental shotgun, either.. or if they buy the shotgun but they do not have enough for ammunition.. or they have to settle for some kind of inferior brand or design.

So, some of us might have found ourselves with our pants down a bit more than we expected in certain areas, but still in a position where we might not need to panic, we just have to consider various aspects of how to tweak our plans in terms of both where we are at, and maybe some areas that we might be a bit deficient.. and we cannot always necessarily plan for all contingencies either, especially maybe if we had not really been much of a prepper (whether talking financially or in other ways).



That is really fair enough.

I had been complaining a few weeks ago about how this whole situation is affecting people from a lot of social statuses, but surely the billionaires are likely the few that have been affected less, if they have a private plane and can fly to some location that is of their choosing, in the event that they may have found themselves in some location that is less ideal.. but probably even a lot of them have been negatively affected, even if they have quite a few more options than many of us relatively more normies... .I was not even thinking about the benefits of having my own plane or a helicopter or anything like this, but seems like it could provide options in times like these, that's for sure... oh multi-millionaires might also be able to aspire to private plan status, but surely those in regular fuck-off status would not have those kinds of options, and surely those in piss off status would not even really be considering those kinds of options (except maybe in a kind of fantasy consideration or maybe they would need bitcoin to do at least a 50x from here to be able to get too that private plane level).

Referring to Oom (for clarity).... madhatter in two weeks. ^tm

I agree with this idea in theory, but surely there may be a lot of guys that have "almost 'fuck you' money" rather than enough to really and realistically be able to say fuck you.

I am not blaming anyone because it takes a long fucking time to reach actual "fuck you" status, and the system is kind of designed in such a way that makes it really difficult to really say fuck you, until you are overly prepared.  In other words, your cushion has to be really BIG because on an ongoing basis we are so tempted, also, to be indebted to the man in one way or another because we tend to want to live beyond our means.

There were a lot of us making similar complaints between about July and October 2019 when we kept dipping back into 4 digits.... "Why do we have to keep dipping back into 4 digits?"  "This is the last time that we are going to see 4 digits."   etc. etc. etc..

After the end of October, it seemed a lot more difficult to even get back up to $10k, even though it started to seem that we were getting in supra $10k prices again in the first two months of the year before the air started coming out of our sails again with macro factors, but lo and behold, we are kind of struggling to get back up to $10k again, and relative to other asset classes, bitcoin seems to be holding its own - even while I remain quite uncertain whether we can really attempt to visualize ourselves separately from macro happenings.

Would be quite strange if Bitcoin were to go shooting up, while the rest of the world burns, so probably there is some need for some stability in macro systems in order for bitcoin to have any kinds of decent chances to get some kinds of foothold on trending upwards, if that is what bitcoin is inclined to do in the next year or two.
 


Yes.   Exactly.  That is another way of phrasing the situation, and you are leaving NO room for disagreement.      

At the same time, there could just continue to be some kind of ongoing bitcoin trickling upwards, and maybe no one is really going to notice it, very much?  Because so many peeps will be complaining that the bitcoin price is NOT going up quickly enough... it's just stuck, and in the meantime, it is up nearly 150% from where it was less than 2 months ago.. but still we just hear complaining that it is stuck and it is boring.

Hey.  I think that I tend to be a fairly charitable person, and I am willing to give benefit of the doubt.

On the other hand, most of us probably get some ideas about when we see a conman, and we have to come to a conclusion in a reasonable amount of time.. like maybe give them a few chances before we come to judgement.

Trump has truly proven himself, even while I understand that some people have concluded that he walks on water and that he can do no wrong, but I get the sense that some people just get pleasure in hearing what they want to hear.

I will admit that I will not necessarily sit through whole presentations with people that I know that are lying, so sometimes if there might happen to be some value in a 20 to 30 minute presentation that he might give, then someone might need to point that out to me, because I feel that there is not enough hours in the day and to riddle my own brain with lies and misinformation... it is not good for your brain or developing and maintaining your own critical thinking skills.

I am not going to berate anyone who wants to give him the benefit of the doubt, but frequently, I will find that if I engage with anyone who is really attempting to be intellectually honest, there is hardly anyone who really believes that he is NOT a con man.  Many people that support him so enthusiastically frequently are actually considering him to have utilitarian value in terms of their beliefs that his behaviors is actually carrying out their personal/ideological agenda in one way or various ways.

I seriously prefer Vegeta (even getting stuck here for a while) much moar better than when we were lingering in the lower to mid $7ks, only a bit over a week ago, and it is even much moar better than our correction down to sub $4k and then getting stuck in $4ks for a few days, too, which was only a month and a half ago.

Many of us who are getting so god damned anxious to go up, should appreciate that largely we have been trickling up, all the way since the sub-$4k price movement, and we really have not had much if any major stagnation or correction in the price, and largely we have been continuing to trickle up.

Whether such trickling up is going to continue, it is NOT even bad if we happened to get stuck for a bit of time.. NOT that getting stuck is a very likely outcome during such uncertain times, and even seems that if we have a correction, it is NOT exactly obvious that the direction is going to be UP, even if many of us (especially HODLers and accumulators) would prefer UP.  

One thing about bitcoin remains that if there are too many retail folks who are anxious that we might NOT be going UP enough, then that resolve could end up getting tested as a kind of attempt to verify if shaking the tree might be helpful to get a few more weak hands out of this.

TLDR: I am not saying that a BTC correction has to happen, but I am saying that UP is not exactly obvious or inevitable either.  Therefore, we are not necessarily in a bad place, currently, even if it is feeling as if we might be a bit stuck.

I wrote some long thesis papers in my earlier years, and I even had jobs that had required detailed (and sometimes extensive and lengthy discussions of various points).

Surely focusing on something that is already done (such as posts) could allow for less deviation into too many topics, which has tended to be one of my real world writing struggles, especially when I ended up putting together larger pieces of work that had required the treatment of multiple themes of topics (so far unpublished)...

In any event, you are correct with any kind of suggestion that sometimes there could be some value in ending up (or working towards) some tangible piece of work rather than just stringing together various threads of discussion within the interwebs.  So thanks for that possible angle.