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Only post with your apology.
Upon seeing that Jeff has received his unit, no further proof is needed on my end to know that Avalon is probably not a scam. I wish them nothing short of having a successful Batch #2 sellout.
With that, I sincerely apologize to Team Avalon, and thank them for not having their lawyers contact me concerning my libelous post(s).
Rock on Avalon!
Also, I 95% firmly believe that BFL is not a scam.
~Bruno K~
Any other, feel free to also post your apologies like a MAN.
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In case you have not done so already I reported your issue to the moderators. Hopefully they will report what is going on here shortly.
While you're at it, see I can regain control of Nikki the Bitch.  |
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I'm quite versed in PHP and MySQL and have been designing/programming websites for about 10 years now. I'm slowly getting used to the bitcoint API, etc. used by blockchain.info. I'd like to be the first to pony up an offer to help out with the project. I have web hosting the site can go on, but at the moment, can't lay down any money towards any of the upfront costs of the project. Here's what I can offer:
- PHP/MySQL development
- Bitcoin API integration (it'll take me a little while to get it all down, but nonetheless, it'll get done)
- Website Hosting for the duration of the project, however long that turns out to be
I'm not interested in being paid up front for any work I do, as I want in on this for the long haul just as you do. If you'd like to discuss this in any further detail in private, please send me a PM or add me to Skype. My Skype username is the same as my username here on the forums.
Take care!
Ricky
For being a Newbie, you either have cred, or an excellent con. I'm leaning toward the former, disregarding the latter. PM sent.
Did I mention that the end buyer could recognize a better ROI than all previous buyers or, for that matter, the vig the site collects? Matter-in-fact, it can be programmed it to somewhat guarantee it. |
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I don't send any email to him .. That's a joke or what ?? Who cares? You were a great target for practice. Aaaaah, now i understand  Perfect candidate to order Batch #2. |
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Glad to hear you are better.
Where did he say he was better? Deduced! |
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Behind one of the following barn doors is a rare Barn Find, with goats behind each of the other three doors:  If you correctly pick the door revealing the Barn Find, you win 200% profit. If a goat is revealed, you lose. But not to be deterred, you'll have the option to guess again with the remaining three doors if your first choice revealed a goat. You can also opt to pass, whereupon the next player can pick up where you left off. Either way, if the correct door is picked revealing the Barn Find in this round, you win 150% profit. But not all is lost if you desire to try one final time with the two remaining doors to win 100% profit--true odds at this juncture. EDIT: Just realized that this negates the premise of the title of this thread, but still something to think about. |
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i say do both. two games. one permanent, one that resets. thus people who want to can knowingly take the big risks, and those who just want a game can have that too.
This would certainly satisfy elux's concern (post above yours). But a warning of sorts on the page would be warranted: The last player to purchase has the potential of not being able to procure a buyer. As a game, the way it's currently set up is not that bad. But, what if this wasn't a game, and structured as a viable endeavor without any losers? That's what I propose here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=139532.0for my btc, i'd go with the actual chance to win something. but i'm sure there's an audience for the other as well. And you don't want the viable endeavor affiliated with the gaming one, not saying that it's a bad thing. |
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So, we have a problem. Avalon need the money before this weekend starts to place orders for the parts. For those unbelievers, let's hope Jeff receives his unit before batch #2 starts selling on EST 9:00 AM, January 31st, 2013.The spec is 6.6 ~ 6.7w per Gh/s. Speed is greater than 60Gh/s, batch size is 600, each unit is $1,500, payment gateway is provided by WalletBit, units will ship starting March 6 th to April 5 th, 2013. Keep an eye on http://launch.avalon-asics.com as new information will be released on it every day until review happens. The following is the no bullshit, no fine print terms of sales for Avalon batch #2. - Bitcoin Only - Batch #2 of Avalon will only accept bitcoins. Only Bitcoin will allow us to move half a million USD in a few hours into places they are suppose to go to. This will also allow us to automate the order system. I am aware some EU and SA country will have importing issues due to customs, but I see a possibility for re-sellers to grow and take care of this problem.
WalletBit sure is an amazing company. Avalon: When BTCX arrives, immediately convert to local currency and send to Company A for parts. WB: Got it! Avalon: Then, when BTCX arrives, immediately convert to local currency and send to Company B for parts. WB: Can do! Avalon: Time is of essence, for we only have a few hour window open due to CNY. WB: We've done what you requested a many a times, so don't worry. Avalon: Great! The remaining BTC send to a mixer of your choice with its final destination being 1...(redacted). |
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So, we have a problem. Avalon need the money before this weekend starts to place orders for the parts. [...] The following is the no bullshit, no fine print terms of sales for Avalon batch #2. - Bitcoin Only - Batch #2 of Avalon will only accept bitcoins. Only Bitcoin will allow us to move half a million USD in a few hours into places they are suppose to go to. [...]
- No Refunds - [...] this allows proper financial management, eliminate back-orders and improve overall efficiency and workflow on how we work. How else did you expect us to produce a functional ASIC unit in the same length of time a competitor has been delayed?
- No Proof - [...] we seldom will release any information. We will instead focusing more on killer features, some of which is already hidden in our unit. In this highly cutthroat competitive field, we do what we can to survive.
I applaud every potential customer to think over this carefully, and make the decision seem right to you, and only you. Although I must say: life isn't about "making sure" but rather "enduring the uncertainty". [...] It is hard not to get mad. However, I must warn you, don't place trust in the wrong people and what they tell you; [...] Be ready to take the spear to the chest as you were their spoke person. [...] Re-read this and holy shit does it reak like a classic Nigerian swindle. A newly coined word 'Chinarian' comes to mind.  |
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If there are three options to choose from to start with, probability is 66% for a win. If there are 4 options and you play: pick switch switch, your probability for a win is 5 out of 8.
So the OP is loosing money, unless there is a catch.
The explanation does not however suggest that this is an ordinary Monty Hall problem:
You choose 2 doors which are removed, and the gamehost promisses that there is a 50% probability for a right choice in the last draw between the remaining 2 doors.
If this is the case, He won't make any money unless the randomization is fake.
After the first choice of the four is eliminated, then it reverts to the Monty Hall Problem. |
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I was stuck in a psych ward, sorry.
Hope you're feeling better, bud. I had a little fun at your expense during your hiatus. Hope you didn't mind. (sorry 'bout that, didn't mean to use the word mind) Try not to have your conversations go off on some weird transit if you don't want to be banned. I, for one, have never notified admins on this site pertaining to anybody, and won't start with you, but some others may not be so patient. Welcome back, bud. ~Bruno K~ |
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Everything I penned to date on this thread was done soon prior to reading the following, but has no bearing on what I envision. Bitcoin gem, version 1: the aftermathSome of you might have seen the price of the bitcoin gem skyrocketing to 126 bitcoins 2 days ago. This first version of the bitcoin gem had a vicious flaw: there was no exit point. The price just went up and up and I did not want to produce a really big loser at the the end of the chain. That's why I stepped in, refunded the last 2 buyers and took down the website. Some say that was the dumbest move ever since I could have made a really big cut here. But it just did not feel right for me. Of course, I would have loved to see how far the gem would go, especially since there was so much traffic coming in. Would it reach 500? 1,000? 10,000? Some of you suspected that 126 btc was the end of the line and that people wouldn't want to buy any more. I'd say it was just the other way round. Traffic to the site was about to explode and I guess the price would have exploded too. But I'm really happy that I could stop the gem at this point. Bitcoin gem, version 2I then thought about how I could eliminate the problem of runaway prices. Some suggested a upper limit, but I guess a hard limit just would not work because the closer the limit gets, the less people would still buy. So I implemented a random reset of the gem, the odds for a reset are 6.25%. Basically, any purchase can trigger a reset and can put the gems price back to the start. I also raised the profit for buyers (10%) and lowered the house edge (2%). This means you can make a 10% profit with winning odds of 93.75%. So unless version 1 of the gem (where there was only one biiiiig loser), the new gem on average makes 15 winners and 1 loser. That feels much better for me. In the end, I'd like this to be a fun game. I just reopened the bitcoin gem at http://www.bitcoingem.com. Your comments and suggestions are, as always, welcome. This maxmint is a class-act. I like him. If structured, then marketed correctly, a modified version of his idea has the potential of furthering Bitcoin awareness in a positive light. |
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i say do both. two games. one permanent, one that resets. thus people who want to can knowingly take the big risks, and those who just want a game can have that too.
This would certainly satisfy elux's concern (post above yours). But a warning of sorts on the page would be warranted: The last player to purchase has the potential of not being able to procure a buyer. As a game, the way it's currently set up is not that bad. But, what if this wasn't a game, and structured as a viable endeavor without any losers? That's what I propose here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=139532.0 |
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[...]
The only way a bigger ticket item would work is if it was being unloaded at a cost below 50% its value.
[...]
Keep in mind my analysis wasn't completely generic and assumed that the profits on the sale of each option were split equally between the house and the option owner. If you re-run the numbers using different ratios you will come up with different final values. Roughly, if you split the profit on the sale of each option with P percent going to the house and 100 - P percent going to the option owner, the house will have made P percent of the final value of the object when the option price reaches the value of the object. I did consider adjusting the percentage payout, but at 10% with the 5% split seems, and has proven, to be a nice benchmark. But what if a random percentage payout was introduced, still guaranteeing a minimum 5% ROI? It'll be between 5% and 10%, cutting into the houses percentage. You may get 5.2%, 7.43%, 9.61%, etc. Granted, if all items were moved this way, now we're looking at only 25%, oppose to 50%, mathematically, available for the item at its closing--24 hours after final sale without a buyer. To make it more interesting, only some items would include the random % payout, not disclosed at the beginning, only being revealed after the first purchase, or at some point early in the process being evident by the rounded up profit when sold. |
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Uh - mars-one is nothing but a media campaign, aiming to make interest for a reality show that's going to air later on.
It is not a legit operation. I don't think we want bitcoin associated with this.
Those who need further proof, please investigate, I've seen it debunked already, I'm sure some could even provide a link.
proof plz! but hey, even if it's a media campaign, it increases public awareness for space missions and that's a good thing.While I thought this was a fantastic idea before, it's made me think, why would someone spend that much money and use up that many resources for a settlement on a planet which would use up even more resources and money over time than the trip to get there. The most logical plan would be to get humans somewhere where there's already atmosphere and free oxygen etc. so that living there would be a lot more comfortable for them and we already have a planet found that's possibly like that. Sure the trip would be longer and more expensive, but in the end it will be a lot easier to get things set up as long as we don't discover it's got a poisonous ground or anything like that. http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2007/apr/25/starsgalaxiesandplanets.spaceexplorationGranted, they've already stated it's a non-profit organisation because they clearly won't make any money doing a mars mission but still, when you look at it some of it just doesn't make much sense, I like the idea of claiming asteroids a lot better because that would at least benefit everyone in some way with the amount of materials involved. I don't think that mars is the next logical step either. It would be much more sensible to go to the moon first for various reasons: - you can return if SHTF but mars is a one way trip - a moon base can act as fuel depot for further space missions - mined resources can be transported back to earth orbit with very low running costs, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_driver- Helium 3 ... <see bold> ...and thus would bring further awareness to Bitcoin if attached to the program. Bas Lansdorp may even eventually announce Bitcoin as the official money on Mars, since the astronauts are not returning to Earth. They'll need something of value to play poker correctly between the performing of various daily tasks. If I remember correctly, there was a mega-thread on this very subject, possibly sans the mention of Mars One. |
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1. Four options to choose, only one is correct.
2. Choose one, remove it from the list since the probability to choose a wrong option is 3/4.
3. Repeat step 2.
4. Now you have 50% probability ✔ GUARANTEED ✔ to get the right answer.
5. Send 1 BTC to 1profit4U and you'll get the right answer (you must have 50% probability ✔ GUARANTEED ✔)
6. Buy a magnet for improved skillz.
7. Repeat all until rich.
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem |
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