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Sigh
So, burnin is offering 50% refund on his assembly?
Or is that you can convert it to bitfury chips on a burnin PCB assembly? or something?
Maybe a refund does make sense, even if the ROI between these and other things are a wash. There's still a degree of unmitigated risk with chip delivery and whatnot, including in the group buy
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You know what would be very, very interesting to see?
$ sent to these companies over time.
IIRC, BFL got something like 50,000,000$ in pre-orders.
Avalon's chips total about 8,000,000$
KNC? Terrahash? Less than 8,000,000$
The hashing power is a sigmoid curve (low, exponential growth for a period, then levels off because the hashing power and absurd costs means that we go from the old days of making 100% ROI in ~3 days - 3 months, to a sane, stable 100% ROI in 1-2 years even with no hashrate change
The money spent to each company is an inverted sigmoid curve
People talk about moore's law but don't understand it. That's part of a trillion dollar computing industry. Bitcoin doesn't work that way. And frankly, any increases past cointerra will be marginal at best.
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76%/month i don't think is possible the absolute MAX is 6-7 petahash/sec at the end of the year https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820What difficulty is that.. ~1 billion at the end of 2013 diff 2 billion at the end of 2014 diff. Hash rate will be a sigmoid curve. it's not exponential except for a short window. I have not found a calculator that correctly does this, all do an exponential curve. Let me try a few things That's a great link. It doesn't seem to factor in devices from any new / unknown manufacturers though. I'd assume there will be people developing their own equipment and keeping it to themselves as well. It would be nice if it turned into a bit more of a sigmoid (i.e. leveled out) a bit before the end of next year, but at the moment it's still looking very exponential. It will sigmoid eventually, because at 28nm we're already nearing the edge of today's silicon tech (I think 22nm is best in production?) but the question is more what does Q4 2013 and full 2014 look like rather than what "eventually" looks like. I think we have pretty good visibility that it's going to get hairy in Q4 2013 because there are 3-4 major manufacturers pumping out kit in that time, and it shows no signs of abating. Keen to see your results... EDIT: keep moore's law in mind - computing curves are not limited to being sigmoids until you hit silicon's physical limits moore's law applied to the $100,000,000,000+ industry of microelectronics and computers The way I see it, very soon there is no financial incentive either to buy hardware or even NRE for hardware. Fixed, sunk costs will be too absurd, who is going to buy $5,000 - $25,000 hardware (with an 8 figure NRE) that takes ~1-2 years to hit ROI even at a given constant hashrate? Because that's the market for anything that delivers after 2013. |
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76%/month is not possible to sustain. the absolute MAX is 6-7 petahash/sec at the end of the year https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820What difficulty is that.. ~1 billion at the end of 2013 diff 2 billion at the end of 2014 diff. Hash rate will be a sigmoid curve. it's not exponential except for a short window. I have not found a calculator that correctly does this, all do an exponential curve. Let me try a few things 1 Million diff / 2 million diff still exceed electricity costs. It's extremely doubtful any ASIC will ever fall below electricity cost unless BTC/$ plummets. the $/hash is simply too massive, especially for anyone who doesn't directly buy chips from the fab themselves. Not possible to sustain, for HOW long? If your chips showed up assembled and hashing TODAY, you might break even and make a little money, but we're WELL past the anticipated delivery time with ZERO progress since the order date. What makes you think that the chips will deliver any time soon? You guys are clinging to a false hope at this point. As others have pointed out and demonstrated, either way we're going to take a loss. You can either take a loss that also involved giving the assholes who screwed us a ton of money, and just bending over for them, or you can take the option of telling companies that this won't be tolerated, and work on finding another viable investment. Honestly, anybody who chooses option A is a fool, and Yifu's bitch. *WHAT* OTHER VIABLE INVESTMENT? there is NOT A SINGLE ONE THAT LOOKS ANYWHERE NEAR AS GOOD AS THIS ONE FUCKING DID. BEST CASE ROI WAS UNDER A MONTH Obviously that was super-optimistic, but that was best case. Expected case was supposed to be a few months for ROI. Now it's never? Run the numbers of anything else, your BEST CASE ROI is on the order of half a year, what happens when THAT gets fucked over? Do you think you won't get screwed over by another company, group, or person? You run the numbers on a "refund", and stop doing shitty wrong calculations with never-ending hashrates being added (again, it's a fucking sigma curve not an exponential, all hardware is paid for. Do you see people spending money on new hardware anymore?) Something like 50,000,000$ was sent to BFL Then 8,000,000$ was sent to Avalon chips. The guys coming in later? Less than that. The money invested is an inverse-sigmoid curve. The hashrate is a sigmoid curve |
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They don't give a fuck, they are a private chinese group with multi-million dollar investors
ASICs never have and never will be profitable or the game of normal people
I agree the days of the individual miner is over. the exception is a bait and switch, i.e. tiny group of avalon #1/#2 miners, tiny % of very, very early BFL orders, etc. Then big money comes (orders of magnitude more) because it looks 'secure', and they never deliver |
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Was the IPO just to get attention?
They obviously have no real intent of being a public company like ASICminer, Labcoin, etc.
What, negative attention? I personally would never buy nor support anything produced by BTCGARDEN. They pissed off a lot of people, not a great public relations strategy. They don't give a fuck, they are a private chinese group with multi-million dollar investors ASICs never have and never will be profitable or the game of normal people |
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How does anyone make money off BTCGARDEN?
Garden returns to being a private company where only the private interests (founders, private investors, early stage employees with stock options) will gain. By definition the public can not gain from a private security. (Unless the public purchases a product that security will develop and sell (miners)) You could perhaps talk to Garden about becoming a private investor if you hold several million dollars and are willing to risk the whole lot. By defintion a company that has an IPO is no longer private. No, a company can 'go private' buy buying up all of it's own shares. Look it up. But they did not buy them. They forcibly stole them back from everyone who held them. Buying implies consent of the owner. There was no consent. Of course it's all a wash anyway since btco is highly illegal as is. Unregulated securities and all that, so what's breaking the law when you're de facto existence is illegal? The question is what scam were/are they playing at? Was the IPO just to get attention? They obviously have no real intent of being a public company like ASICminer, Labcoin, etc. |
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76%/month is not possible to sustain. the absolute MAX is 6-7 petahash/sec at the end of the year https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820What difficulty is that.. ~1 billion at the end of 2013 diff 2 billion at the end of 2014 diff. Hash rate will be a sigmoid curve. it's not exponential except for a short window. I have not found a calculator that correctly does this, all do an exponential curve. Let me try a few things 1 Million diff / 2 million diff still exceed electricity costs. It's extremely doubtful any ASIC will ever fall below electricity cost unless BTC/$ plummets. the $/hash is simply too massive, especially for anyone who doesn't directly buy chips from the fab themselves. |
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How does anyone make money off BTCGARDEN?
Garden returns to being a private company where only the private interests (founders, private investors, early stage employees with stock options) will gain. By definition the public can not gain from a private security. (Unless the public purchases a product that security will develop and sell (miners)) You could perhaps talk to Garden about becoming a private investor if you hold several million dollars and are willing to risk the whole lot. By definition a company that has an IPO is no longer private. So what scam were they going for with their IPO angle? |
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Sorry a bit on edge, coming back from 2 weeks of being too occupied to follow the market, things changed a lot. I knew chips were late, but suddenly there's a massive influx of unanticipated hashrate, a shit ton more promised and enroute.
Trying to make sense of it all.
Even putting in 150m diff with 60% increase per month (30%/2 weeks seems to be the upper bound thus far) it still makes ROI in under 3 months. I don't understand what calculations people are using that show negative ROI over 1-2 years
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So let's see
People bought IPO
The stock would be at 100x it's IPO value if it stayed a stock
They bought all the stocks back
So
How does anyone make money off BTCGARDEN?
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Don't forget Bitfury's private pool(at least I believe it is his pool) -> https://ghash.io/. I haven't been keeping up with it but I know it has grown to 100 TH/s very quickly. This has nothing to do with the 100TH(now 200TH) mine. Wouldn't be surprised to see Bitfury just maintain 20% of the network for months to come given how efficient his chips are. edit: Just realized this post may not be useful for the purpose of your thread. Just something that should be considered though given the opportunity that Bitfury has to replace ASICMINER as the 800 pound gorilla on the network. If ASICMINER's 2nd generation chips can compete with Bitfury you could end up with a large chunk of the network held by those two. This is a single person with this hasing power? |
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So for all the competition and talk, the future if bitcoin is STILL controlled by BFL. Wow 3 fucking petahash Assuming:
2) 0.12 USD per kWh
Long-term miners are going to shift to much cheaper electricity. .12 USD is not sustainable. Not viable for 99.99% of people. Only groups like ASICminer or others with millions of $ invested can make this move. |
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please, keep this thread yifu/avalon free.
How is that possible? Burnin/bitfury is the only damage control option for the 8,000,000$ in avalon chip orders |
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What the fuck are you going to do with your refund? Bitfury Oct won't make ROI.
Where the fuck do you think you can put it and have a better shot for mining?
AND THERE IS NO REFUND FOR ASSEMBLIES. THAT'S HALF THE COST RIGHT THERE
Literally a 50% ROI is the same as a ""refund""
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Vote my 572 chips AGAINST refund.
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I don't understand, what % of that is bitfury, the individual, - who if he wants to at ALL, is the person and soon to be a billionaire's chips?
Nobody can ever match the owner of the ASIC for $/gh
all chips you buy are marked up several orders of magnitude in $/chip
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Thank You for thinking about this critically. The chips were made. Who has them and why don't we? There only so many possibilities. They were either stolen, bought by a higher bidder, they are not held up in customs (complete BS story), are intentionally being held back by Yifu only and have not gone out to anyone, or are being held up by Yifu and "others".
Where do you (collective) think the 20% increases have been coming from? Let me ask you something pendejo, where do you think the 20% increases have been coming from? BFL? ASICMiner? AM is bringing either 262 TH/sec or 900 TH/sec up this year. BFL has something between 200 and 1000 TH/sec in preorders to ship, which they have been doing, slowly. |
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So.. any way to prove they're in customs?
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