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121  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2014, 01:06:24 PM
It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

I suspect, though I don't know for sure (no doubt others will comment on this):
Lots of new people (aka the "Fresh Fiat" we keep hearing about) are going into bitcoin. We know that the number of new accounts on Coinbase, Blockchain etc is rising significantly, and that must be bringing some new money in.
The problem is that speculative money is leaving bitcoin at the same time. Bitcoin was vastly overpriced and has corrected/is correcting (depending on how bearish you are).
Although it's a gross simplification, I wonder whether the newcomers are more 'normal' buyers, Joe Publics who have heard about Bitcoin and decided to buy a small amount, try it out etc, before perhaps investing more in the future. Whereas the speculative money is at least an order of magnitude greater per person, because these people were trying to make a lot of money at it.
It may be that a proportion of current newcomers become larger investors later on. I'd be interested to know how many day traders here started small before going in heavy enough to make/lost decent money, and how long that took.

TL;DR - growth in user base and fiat is already there, it's just slower and steadier than the speculators running for the door.
-> Relax. Once the speculators have bailed properly ("capitulation") we'll see the underlying growth that was there all along.

Discuss.

This is very likely, the big money was already in and is now trying to get out with as much profit/least losses as possible.
122  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2014, 12:33:24 PM
Huobi's order book is insane.  Must be kids playing traders while their parents are away.  Or the traders are all drunk.
All I am seeing is weird bid-walls popping up and goign away without actually buying coins. I mean if you really want to buy coins, why not remove the bid walls, let the price drop and buy on the way down?
123  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 04, 2014, 11:56:58 AM
Please add boredom as an option in the poll.  Cry
124  Economy / Speculation / Re: Baseline on: May 03, 2014, 10:51:03 PM
Same line on larger time scale:


:-) just interesting



Next stop 150$?
125  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2014, 06:49:40 PM
Oooh, looks like some new 'news' on the cards:
http://www.ibtimes.com/bitcoin-terrorist-threat-counterterrorism-program-names-virtual-currencies-area-interest-1579699

Rumour has it Saddam paid for his WMD's using bitcoin, won't somebody think of the children... Meanwhile paper dollars remain the No. 1 currency for criminals worldwide.

Earlier than I expected.

EDIT: Ah, they're only studying it. Good, good.

Now I will keep my funds on the European exchanges for sure.
Edit:
This news combined with the fact that Mastercard hired some lobbyist to create some anti-bitcoin awareness is really bad news.
126  Economy / Speculation / Which Chinese exchange to close next? on: May 03, 2014, 06:42:20 PM
After FXBTC announcing their closure, which exchange do you think will be next to announce their closure?

Edit:
I personally voted BTC China, because of their lack of openness and denial of the PBOC enforcing the December guidelines.
127  Economy / Speculation / Re: 4th LARGEST chinese bitcoin exchange, FXBTC Chinese announces CLOSURE by May 10 on: May 03, 2014, 06:36:54 PM
http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-bitcoin-exchange-fxbtc-to-close-citing-central-bank-pressure/

Quote
FXBTC cited “unprecedented pressure” from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) as well as restrictions on its banking services that have resulted from the central bank’s policies as deciding factors.

If that's true, we should see similar news very soon with the other chinese exchanges...

Indeed, this news combined with the statements of Chinese exchanges exploring to go overseas, is not a good sign at all. What is even a worse sign is the complete lack of openness on the side of BTCchina, all exchanges have in some shape or form admitted most of the account closures, but BTCChina has been denying everything for a long time before finally making a statement.
128  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 03, 2014, 01:39:35 AM
Amazing.

I can understand that some people can believe SOME of that stuff.  But are there really people who believe ALL of it?

But OK folks. Just promise that you won't drink that Kool-Aid in the end.


I stopped watching when she said "The internet is anarchy".
129  Economy / Speculation / Re: FXBTC Chinese bitcoin exchange announces CLOSURE by May 10 on: May 02, 2014, 06:46:57 PM

It was just a bit of sarcasm. It is actually funny to read the comments on the coindesk article and get a feel for what the general emotion is about the PBOC bans. Those comments are a clear indication of the fact that China bans are not yet calculated into the current bitcoin price.
130  Economy / Speculation / Re: FXBTC Chinese bitcoin exchange announces CLOSURE by May 10 on: May 02, 2014, 04:07:25 PM
FUD
131  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2014, 03:12:05 PM
price will rise sharply everywhere Jorge
Why do you think so?  Closure or shrinking of the Chinese markets can only increase the supply of coins in the Western ones, without a corresponding increase in dollars.  How could that mean higher prices in the West?

Because everyone will HODL  Roll Eyes
132  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitcoin when will it go back up? on: May 02, 2014, 01:57:20 PM
Just give up HODLING and admit you have been taken for a ride by some big spenders, it will not go up for atleast another year.
133  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2014, 01:38:00 PM
What's the reason for dip now then?? -_-
Zoom out your chart to W1, 3D, or 1D scale, and maybe you'll see why a drop is due. I think someone forgot to release the 'news' that was supposed to go with the drop but it's happening anyway because of the trend.
Not only that, but the closing of FXBTC is really a writing on the wall and has people really concerned about the future of BTC.
134  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2014, 01:32:21 PM
Best strategy atm is HODL imo, and by HODL I mean HODL your shorts.

Edit:
How funny will it be when atleast half of the long positions on Bitfinex will be closed  Grin
135  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2014, 01:28:06 PM
Quote
FXBTC (4th bitcoin exchange by volume in china) shut down by 5/10, cites it's because of unfavorable PBOC policies

Just a matter of time before Huobi and BTCchina decide it has been enough
136  Economy / Speculation / Re: ardent speculators: consider shorting before 4th May 00:00GMT (that means 3rd) on: May 02, 2014, 12:00:40 PM
The market has had 5 months to price this in already  Roll Eyes

Which means you ware caught by surprise a few times during the months, right? ( a really kind wink) I am not surprised even 1 time, because I predicted the saga by 9th Jan (China goverment will cripple bitcoin operation, posted on this forum) and I observed that this is not fully priced in till 11th April bottom (which I also predicted, on this sub-forum). I often find people tends to marginalize this world-most-wealthy-organization, like Chinese marginalize the Federal Reserve. PBOC has a vast ego like other top Chinese governments, However it's not my ego at work. I truly hope that: the day people don't care about China's news come earlier and that I found my knowledge of China useless. I try to be helpful: when I really think the next bottom is in I'll say that at the risk of being a bad fortune-teller.

Don't waste your breath debating with these retards zhangweiwu. Time and time again your input has proven both insightful into the workings of Chinese culture and also into the implications that it has had on Bitcoin price. Anyone with their heads screwed on will value any comments that you have to make. Let the Kool-Aid heads drink Kool-Aid and suffer the hangovers of their own stupidity...again....and again...AND AGAIN...and again and again and again and again and again...........

+1
137  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2014, 11:59:24 AM
the crash is beginning, the road to 200$

But is so awfully quiet on this thread, I just dont get it. Normally when a major price movement is happening it gets spammed to the max.
138  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2014, 11:58:42 AM
No one noticing the price drop on Huobi or is everyone just on ignore modus?  Huh
139  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2014, 11:29:13 AM
What we are seeing now is what would happen if no new fiat would enter the btc market?
140  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 02, 2014, 04:53:01 AM
Go ahead guys CCMF trade this at your peril. I think I'll sit out.



It is looking more and more like in March indeed.
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