futures premiums have collapsed. Down to high single digits, guess nobody expects the price to rise then, which probably means it will.
The alts I'm following do not show a meaningful dent in their BTC price. This does not mean summer by any means but to me it's a signal that sentiment is still strong. Nobody seems to give a damn about the Billionaire pony show unfolding in the BTCUSD scene: cryptocurrency speculation is still rampant (and, of course, all the good development making for better and better software towards mainstream apps built on cryptocurrency layers
).
Speaking of BTCUSD:
I think of this situation as the prime example of: "
when in doubt, zoom out".
It's cherry picking but I show two charts in this respect:
The core of the message is: volatility and Bitcoin measured in USD go together. Always has been and this will stay until Bitcoin becomes big enough.
The whole Elon circus is just what it is: a circus. It has not changed any aspect of Bitcoin. The protocol is still there. It's promises. It's unique situation in terms of network effect. It may be Internet Money 1.0 but for now it's still the best we have. And I still believe in the story. I am just as confident holding BTC at $45k as holding it at $69k.
Apparently, $45k is a more fair price right now. I won't lecture the market. Its just a global voting machine. From that perspective, it is a good thing that some air was taken out of the Bitcoin USD price. This creates room for more upward movement in the future. We were getting a little ahead of ourselves anyway when looking at the 2017 comparison .
For every seller there is a buyer. The grand effect of the price tumbling is that coins go from paper hands to diamond hands. The price is pinching into the thick skin of hardened and seasoned traders seeing a bright future for Bitcoin, while the day traders or scary people back out and surrender their Bitcoin, moving to fiat again.
While the times seem depressing, coming down from $69k, I still see Bitcoin up this year and considerably so. No stress on my part. Despite all the fuzz I do not see a successor Bitcoin arising (ETH has it's own space, mainly speculation right now it seems) that has the 10x+ features to overcome the established network effect of Bitcoin. There may be times that this will be different, but not today.
The price may linger for a while. After all, its pure price discovery. And with Bitcoin, fiat may come and go fast. In the end, people who believe in a brighter future for Bitcoin, will continue to hold and accumulate. With all other things remaining equal, the end result will be the same again in the end: UP.
Meanwhile, the fiat in your pocket remains burning. The seller of today will recognize soon enough.
So what am I looking at? The classic Buy The F* Dip I would say
And Elon: I'm not sure whether I am agitated or just sad for him. Well, Edison wasn't a nice chap either (electrocuting elephants to defend a position that was eventually lost, tssk tssk). My doubts were essentially confirmed with the naming of his child. He should be fine sticking to his engineering stuff. Dealing with people, not so much. Honey badger doesn't care.
Enjoying the $45k