You have to realize that Cointerra got into this as blind as customers of other ASIC vendors. Cointerra couldn't predict Hashfast nor KNC nor Bitfury, etc., etc. Matching price is a necessity forced on them that is also a big bummer for them. They were likely hoping on a price at least 3 times that amount.

You figure the cost of this custom hardware after NRE probably comes down to a few hundreds of dollars.

There was major major major money to be made, and Avalon proved it charging $7k for some ASIC hardware that was otherwise inexpensive to make. Avalon probably made 500% or more on each unit, who knows.

Huge profit margins draw competitors. They've arrived now. But they're not able to charge what they were hoping they'd be able to charge. They're just as aced out as the people who bought miners looking at what they could've generated months ago (like Avalons were 15 bitcoin a day back in april).

Price competition has not only hit, it's going to scare off other competitors. The value of hardware is going to crash so quickly after september that it's likely that many people formerly planning to startup an ASIC venture have now tossed those plans entirely, too much competition. And now people are worried that Nov/Dec asics might not ROI at all.

Mining should always return to the point where the cost of electricity is just under the cost of mining bitcoin, long term.

If I were an ASIC company wanting to stay in this biz long term rather than going for the homerun, facing all these fence-swingers right now, I'd be making incredibly high efficiency ASICs, air cooled, and plan to sell them for a slight markup and make up the difference on volume. A 10gh USB stick for $20 would be a market winner, even as the large asics begin dying like flies at the end of this year.

Bitcoinorama--I'm just as pro-KNC as you are, and it's been painful watching you twist in the wind. I think you're like a lightning bolt for shill-accusations at this point

If it were me, I wouldn't argue with the detractors as much; I've seen you attract antagony that way. Meh. After Avalon refunded me and no one else practically painting 'shill' on my forehead I'm not eager to overplay my hand in the KNC thread.

Your advocacy didn't affect my purchase much though, I verified a lot of it right alongside you. Though afaik you're the only one who visited KNC who actually did a write-up and that was very useful and the most info we've gotten from them at one pass.

Anyway, it's pretty obvious 'Orama isn't a shill, but because 'Orama is bothered by the accusation I think they keep it up. Water off a duck's back, yo.

Yeah, I hate that designation. ISO codes don't control me! BTC it is and shall always be >:

The case is not rendered.

Who runs KNC has a million times more credibility than BFL's people, and Orsoc has shipped plenty.

Next!

The one I talked to, admittedly the top hoster in my area, wanted $330 / month, some $2,000 setup fee, and a 3 year commitment >_>

Of all of those, it's the 3-year commitment that's particularly unrealistic.

That's because they were going to use the 6gh FPGA miner as the prototypes for them to build CGminer or w/e on. Obviously they discontinued that but you guys are acting like they'd promised a jupiter back then. Jupiters hadn't even been mentioned at that point.

Plans change.

The first actual date they ever mentioned shipping was September 2013. They've affirmed a few times now that they are on track for that date.

They've taped out, they've shown picts of case and fan, they have PCB picts coming late next week, and they should be receiving chips within the next week or two, or at least their assemblers will be.

July was never on offer.

Once they receive the completed machines they'll go a burn-in and anything not within specs will simply be set aside and they'll move to the next device and send you that one. It's not a big deal yo.

Most likely the site will let you pay for the whole thing if you so desire, sans escrow. Yet another avenue for the scam. We shall see.

I'm scared of the Triads too >_>

I think we've got to collectively start taking chip manufacturing back from China.

Really? Group orders should order one of these chips and see if it's real deal. That'd be proof of false dealing of some sort or another :\

Not really. They likely have good reason to believe it to be true. It's all part of their UPOD (under-promise / over-deliver) communication strategy. Remember on day 1 they were talking 250gh. Then it was 350. Now 400. Now they're saying over that even by considerable margin. Probably closer to 500 was their original target all along.

I don't think you understand what point we're at in the mining competition. KNC is uniquely situated and we may end up being the big winners over everyone except Batch-1 Ava customers. Because the window is closing on being able to profitably pay your ROI. The game is to pay your hardware costs before that window closes on the difficulty, and everyone mining profitably at that point may be able to maintain their position there for a long time. Because without the ability to pay your hardware costs, even having 1th at the cost of $1k - $2k or w/e takes months or years to ROI. KNC shipping is a sword of damocles over all the other mining schemes right now.

The difficulty doesn't in fact go up forever. At some point it makes no sense to invest in new mining equipment and the diff will cement in place for a year or two. That figure is probably somewhere around 500 million. I think a Jupiter will both pay for its hardware and mine profitably during that period. And others won't want to drop into mining when the profit is just over electrical costs.

I'll bet some BFL customers want to sock you in the jaw for complaining about the PSU of all things.

It looks to me like those cases may not be aluminum. Possibly they misspoke, they seem to be thin-steel, possibly 22 gauge steel or thereabouts? Most aluminum is rather soft for this application. Something about the color--I'm usually pretty good at calling metal content by physical appearance and color, though obviously it's difficult to say for sure from a mere photograph.

I'm sure they'd make an exception for a goddamn Cray too.

The largest data center in Los Angeles... wait for it... does not allow water cooling in their facilities. Huge risk. Maybe you can find some that will allow it for who knows what reason but I doubt the main-stays will.

Dear KNC,

Sorry that lots of people in this thread are giving you grief because BFL and Avalon have fallen short of expectations.

Thanks for your work, looking forward to delivery.

     Sincerely,

     ~The people here who realize that one company's failings do not automatically mean others will disappoint

P.S. Keep up the hard work, and thanks for the update.

If you'd read the thread you might know that they're not doing the work in-house themselves (thank god).

The chips are likely being shipped straight to the PCB installer and hardware case guys, who, perhaps, ships them to us or another company doing order fulfillment, dunno. Shortly after they're complete, KNC will get their first units for demo, testing, and send out to Kano and the like.

If you see pictures of a working KNC miner it likely means that shipment is either nigh or already happening.

Margins on margins. Maybe they'll surprise us with a mid September ship date. It'd be an early Christmas, and a fresh drink of water in what's been a very stale ASIC market lately among certain unmentionable companies and names >_>

I'm not sure there'll be a Gen-2 at this rate. When even Cointerra can barely make the numbers look attractive for November how will KNC make March'14 work?

What's it gonna be, 100 terahertz at 1 watt per terahash for $199? lol. You'd probably need something that extreme for it to make sense (I exaggerate of course). But at that point you'll be back to looking at an ROI in the years, not weeks, again. So, the rush will officially be over by the end of this year.

We'll be hitting up against hardware costs and bitcoin-mining profit will be just over electricity costs--as usual.

Until the next big BTC-price gain! Hopefully in 2017.