Someone smiles so it indicates a government plot? No, it proves that its a staged photo It's a common response to traumatic emotional experiences. Smiling When Distressed:Smiling when distressed was most prevalent in conditions in which participants reported the greatest emotional distress. Specifically, while viewing distressing videos, men reported experiencing greater overall distress and also smiled more than women, especially in social conditions and while viewing intensely (as opposed to moderately) distressing stimuli. I'm curious. Do you believe it to be virtually certain - proven beyond reasonable doubt - that this incident must have been staged, and that the shooting didn't happen? Would you say you are 100% sure? 90%? 50%? |
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Only happy to help.  |
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I wonder how many people fired up vanitygen trying to find the keys for that one large address? I know it would take millions of years, but you never know, you might get lucky.
That's 340282366920938463463374607431768211456 attempts. Assuming your computer could try a billion per seconds (it can't, according to the vanitygen post, vanitygen can do ~20 Million attempts per second on a 6990), that'd still take you, oh, about 10790283070806014188 years. ... In other words, chances are you'd witness the heat death of the universe before you actually "get lucky". [trolling on technicalities] Hey! That's only ~10^19 years, ~10^22 years on a 6990. That's literally nothing compared to the heat death of the universe. (At least 10^40 years.) Not to mention that there is a lot of headroom between a 6990 and the physical limits to computation. You have plenty of time, even with a 6990. Better get started.  (You can probably crack it by hand, if the proton doesn't decay.) [/trolling on technicalities] |
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This looks like Bit-pay Merchant Solutions (bull) just caught pirateat40 (bear) in a short squeeze. Very nicely done.
Short squeeze? There's no Bitcoinica. Where would pirate have been shorting? In finance, short selling (also known as shorting or going short) is the practice of selling assets,
usually securities, that have been borrowed from a third party (usually a broker)
with the intention of buying identical assets back at a later date to return to that third party. BTCST, obviously. He is hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins in debt to his creditors, at ~3000% yearly, Bitcoin denominated interest. But! He can short sell the Bitcoin borrowed from his lenders, "with the intention of buying identical assets back at a later date to return to that third party". What can go wrong?
(Or he can short sell their assets without any such intention, for that matter. He's got a pretty cool setup.) |
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What happens in step 2 if the market doesn't fill your bid for 2.5M BTC @ USD$1, and bids at $5 start flooding the market? Finding people to sell you a huge number of BTC @ $1 might be difficult.
Well, you fail. You need to finish selling the open orders of BTC down to your target price, before the market react and successfully transfer the millions of dollars required to stop the fall into the exchange(s). Surprise and confusion would be an advantage. If taken by surprise, much of the market will obviously, reasonably join in and sell what they can while the price is "still above 8$, still above $7, still above $6, still above 5$". This gives an advantage to the instigator of the crash, as he will (plausibly) get a higher average price for his sold coins, than if he were to do it alone. Also: You can still succeed, even if the sudden drops stops at 2.0$ or whatever... As long as you sell most at the top and less at the end. |
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Oh, I see what you're saying. He would have an incentive to sell enough coins to drive the value to almost zero by collapsing confidence in bitcoin permanently, such that he could walk away with the cash while still paying people back their worthless bitcoins.
That's an interesting idea, but it seems like a longshot to actually succeed. You'd have to drive bitcoins really close to $0 for it to work, and they would have to stay at that value even as he buys several more times of bitcoins back to cover the loans.
This scheme is much more difficult to pull off than simply taking the money and running. I think you underestimate the probability of him getting away with it.
Something like this is certainly possible, if you're rich enough in BTC, compared to the "real" depth of the orderbook down to your target price. You don't need to drive the price to zero, or make it stay there for the scheme to work.
Extremely simplified hypothetical scenario with completely fictional numbers:Assume that for some strange reason find yourself in possession of 500K BTC, 0 USD. Assume that it takes 500K BTC to - however briefly - drive the price to 1 USD. Step 1: You sell 500K BTC from 10 USD down to 1 USD/BTC. Let's assume you manage to get an average price 5 USD/BTC, this nets you 2.5M USD, Step 2: Immediately place a bid for 2.5M BTC at 1 USD/BTC. Price rebounds from 1USD/BTC. You now possess 2.5 Million BTC, 0 USD. Step 3: (Optional) Pay off Bitcoin denominated debt, if any.
And... you're done! Buy an island and retire.  |
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Are you purposefully trying to invoke The Feeling of Chaos? With out order ... The Nezperdian hive-mind ... He who Waits Behind The Wall ...  Anyway, it's probably something you should look into.  |
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Is anyone aware on this forum about the promise of LFTR technology?
Yes. Put ITER on hold, divert funds to intensive pursuit of Thorium/U233 power generation. After LFTR solves the world's energy problems, fusion could again become an option. LFTR needs way less magic, money, basic science and engineering breakthroughs to be commercially successful in a huge way. Green-left-environmentalist resistance to safe and sound nuclear in place of coal seems to be an inherited remnant from cold war nuclear-is-bombs-is-chernobyl thinking. A massive push for thorium would save the world in more ways than one. Really. No, really! LFTR in 5 Minutes is an awesome introduction indeed. THORIUM POWAH! |
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Awesome! Would it be possible to host a Bitcoin compo? We will organize two Bitcoin compos at the event. First one is Bitcoin Scavenger Hunt, which will be interesting. Participants find hidden QR codes and send bitcoins to the addresses in those codes. The other is fastest Bitcoin miner, where we basically find out who is the fastest miner at Assembly. The hardware used for the mining must be present at Assembly. Do you have something else in mind? We've had some ideas but I think that our focus will be on those two competitions. Oops! It seems I didn't actually read the thread before sharing my enthusiasm. Sorry!  |
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- Would 80K BTC be sufficient to depress the price to 1.8 USD / BTC on July 17?
No. IIRC, at the time it would have taken around 200k BTCs to drop the price below $2.00. Boom! That's one hypothesis down. Thanks. Can you help eliminate more, or propose better ones? For instance, the (at first glance) conspicuous timing, volume? |
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Awesome! Would it be possible to host a Bitcoin compo? |
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A few points of interest:The largest Bitcoin address in existence is: 1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYMThis is not a very typical high balance bitcoin address, for several reasons. For example: - It's new money, not old coin. - Has been accumulating wealth somewhat steadily since late 2011 early 2012. - The balance is not a nice round figure. - Perhaps most importantly, it's alive! Now, interestingly: - On July 17 this address had a balance of 517825 BTC. - On July 17 Bitcoin looked on the verge of breaking 10 USD/BTC on Mt.Gox. - On July 17 two large withdrawals of respectively 20000BTC and 60000BTC were made from this address. - On July 17 someone sold tens of thousands of bitcoins at market price (instantaneously) in several batches. Opening questions:- Are the several large dumps that occurred on July 17 consistent with the 80k BTC withdrawn from 1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM on that day? - Is the time of the withdrawal roughly consistent with withdrawal -> transfer to and confirmation by Mt.Gox -> dump? - Could 1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM responsible for the dumps of July 17?
Later that day: An (unauthenticated?) user going by the nick pirateat40 spoke on Freenode's #bitcoin IRC channel: <pirateat40> this is the first time ive ever played the market. It was simply a statement, I don't plan on making it part of my process. It's simply a warning. <proudhon> pirateat40, could you stop another "rally" if one were to ignite right now and buy up above $10? <pirateat40> proudhon, i could take [you] to 1.80 if i needed to. <pirateat40> well guys, i think i've scared off the sellers. I'm tired and going to call it night and let the bots play. IRCFrEAK, im pulling the my wall and dumping.... Get ready! Added: More about that fascinating story here. <pirateat40> #btcst comments and price movements on July 17. 2012: (Image credit: Unknown. Please link me to whoever made this originally.)
Further questions:- Would 80K BTC be sufficient to depress the price to 1.8 USD / BTC on July 17? - Would 517K BTC be sufficient to depress the price to 1.8 USD / BTC on July 17? - Does your trading strategy change if 120k BTC is withdrawn from 1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM tomorrow? - ... - ... Anyone want to show of their impressive "bitcoin forensics" skills? Has anyone else pondered these matters?
Added September 10. 2012:1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM came with BTCST, disappeared along with BTCST. I assume this is (one of?) Pirate's wallets, and the main "Savings" part of BTCST.
I anticipated ~500K to be the balance of BTCST based on the premise that 1DkyBEK belongs to pirate before pirate himself claimed BTCST to be around 500K.
I predict you'll start noticing 1DkyBEK behaving quite differently after Aug. 17 than it has in the preceeding months up to Pirate closing shop.
The movements of July 17 were at the time unprecedented and would be an outlier, but have also been claimed by pirate himself.
If 1DkyBEK grows at a similar pace in the upcoming months, or eclipses the height of its former glory, my main premise will be proven wrong.
In a few weeks or months, not days, we can make a judgement. I think it's Pirate, if I'm wrong, we'll be able to tell soon enough.
 Final Balance: 0.17055187 BTCLive balance chart on blockchain.info: https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYMShow's over. Thanks for watching. Special thanks to bitcoin forensics crack znort987 for his analysis.
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Right. Instead of actually arguing the merits you jump to ad hominem and assumption. Good Job.
Well, sorry about that. Frankly, there is no merit to be found in your arguments. None of the "evidence" you brought up even suggests the conclusion you posit. In fact, the entire list can be explained by one basic assumption: Sudden, unexpected disasters - be they man made or natural - are chaotic and confusing. No one knows, exactly, what's going on. This is perfectly normal. Every involved party, save the perpetrator (police, witnesses, media and witnesses) start out with zero knowledge, other that something is happening! After the things that happened have finished happening, the material facts are only gradually nailed down and eventually confirmed by huge numbers of sources. After they know what happened they can correct any incorrect information from what they thought was happening. The full story emerges. This takes time. Media and police work from from zero knowledge, through limited knowledge, towards full knowledge as they piece together "the story". That's what's seems to have happened here, as it has, and will happen, in every chaotic unexpected disaster in history. Taking this into account, your "slam dunk" evidence seems to be no evidence at all. You refute your own hypothesis. |
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You haven't yet come to the understanding that the news isn't biased - they completely make shit up!
How do I put this? You dismiss a terrifying crime by inventing an impossible conspiracy. I don't know what compels you to dismiss the consensus of reality as a maleficient web of lies, but it sure sounds like you are at risk of developing serious, debilitating, degenerative illness. Every man need not be an enemy, every seeming fact need not hide a lie. |
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To be honest, when I see "Suspected bitcoin ponzi op selling large amounts of bitcoin"
My first thought is not "oh, this must be a terribly clever way to make money semi-legitimately by manipulating the market, how clever!"
I think "I wonder if there's some way for me to short the bollocks off that fund?"
Bets of Bitcoin: Bitcoin Savings and Trust will default before the end of 2012 |
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Fake story, fake shooter, fake victims.
The Colorado shooting reads just like every other false flag the media has carried out.
The only info I can find on the "shooter" is stuff the media has just put out about him and other people linking to those same stories.
Other than that, he's never existed. This whole story is BULLSHIT. So far, all the victims seem to be fake too.
Dude. Are you trolling, are you just that crazy? |
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If there's was no return ticket I'd stick around, work hard and invest my savings in electronics and semiconductors.
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Damn, I'm the first to vote for taking out Adolf?  Nuts! |
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Maybe you're right, I'm back down to 50 BTC right now. Big bets are terrible when you lose.  I'm still trying though! This is a bit of a bad sign: Will do! I'm thinking of stopping when I hit 150 BTC. Still, good luck! |
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Is this normal? Well, it's 1.9% less normal than to lose 100 BTC. You should probably stop now. If not: Be sure to post when you lose. It's not good to have gamblers speak only when they're on a winning streak. Will do! I'm thinking of stopping when I hit 150 BTC. That'll give me enough bitcoins to buy some cool stuff from the forums and invest some for the long term. That is, if I don't lose it by then. Besides, I wouldn't want to let evorhees go hungry with my luck Predicted outcome: Reversion to mediocrity. If sufficiently persistent: House wins by mathematical advantage. Congrats, by the way. |
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