This was to be expected somehow, after they locked their thread some days ago and only opened it to post some deposit bonus offer (to collect more money). On top they opened threads like this one, which really isn't needed, when you have your own ANN to post announcements.

I was divided all the time whether this site is legit or not, since their thread was very chaotic to say the least. You had all these not-so-old accounts complaining about scam, but then again I thought Malubit account had some points too (and some proofs) and defended themselves in acceptable and mostly calm fashion. I don't think this was designed as a scam, but looks like in ended in one. They probably ran out of money due to people exploiting them, who knows.

Trump is ahead of Biden, but he is actually behind the Democrats. There is still a little bit more uncertainty about who the democratic nominee will be, while Trump is more or less a a lock to be republican nominee and this reflects in the "Next President" market. The winning party market gives a clearer picture:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128988348

The betting markets include a lot of speculation about the democratic nominee imo. The betting public is not very confident in Biden beating Trump (so am I), but they are very confident in any other nominee than Biden beating Trump.

And on top, the betting markets don't forget. Trump shocked the markets 4 years ago and lots of people still have this in mind. Say what you want about Trump, but he is a good campaigner, while Biden is not.

A little update from the odds/betting front after ~3 weeks upon opening this thread - we are more or less back at where we started. The situation in the US is all but under control from my outside view. They represent a bit above 4% of the world population, but account for 25% of total deaths during this crisis (the EU is not doing any better btw). Like in so many countries, the situation is a bit chaotic regarding measures and loosening them again and each region has to fight their own war to a certain extent. Some states in the US play a risky game (just like Sweden), but maybe they will come out on top, if that term is appropriate in this matter.

So the betting market for the next US President looked like this some 3 weeks ago:


This is how it looks today:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

Not a lot of changes. Trump was already below 2.00 and Cuomo touched 70, but came down to below 50 again. Hillary's chances still seem to be somewhat liked by the market and even though Sanders abandoned his campaign, his odds not even doubled.

Apart from New York City some weeks ago, the health care system seems to be able to deal with this crisis - there are enough ventilators, enough PPE, enough staff. Warmer weather should help a little bit as well and doctors should gain more and more expertise how to treat patients properly. What is still unknown, are the economical consequences and their longterm effects on Trumps presidential run. This could be the deciding factor for the election.

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Does any of you guys think, that a rumoured death of Kim Jong-un could have any impact ? I think he is in fact dead, because such rumours often hold some truth. This could lead to interesting developments in North Korea, which Trump could use to his advantage. Opinions ?

No need to lol here. I was talking about a big enough sample size and and not you playing dice for some time every day out of boredom. Play dice 1000000000000000000 times in a row and I can tell you exactly what you will lose - the house edge. You are playing against a machine, that can't get beaten longterm, no matter how hard you try.

Check this thread out, for smalli-ish sample sizes: House Edge vs. Luck - the Last Stand


In sportsbetting you can win longterm, it is possible. Of course you can lose any bet at any time no matter the odds, but you are not playing against a machine, that is coded to give you no chance of winning longterm. If you are able to find valuable bets on a regular basis, you can't lose there, no matter how hard you try

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@Betwrong

You don't need any luck being successful in sportsbetting and poker. This is again longterm, always think longterm. This is all about odds and probabilities.

Cool, thanks for dropping by. I am not into E-Sports at all and thus never paid attention to the thread, but this looks like a really solid tipster with cheap prices and good tracking. He seems to operate with ~3.4% yield which is good. Having a look at BetonBit, where he plays, they have quite poor odds, only 92% payout, so he could probably even do better, by expanding his bookmaker portfolio. Did you ever check, if you could get better odds for his bets somewhere else on a regular basis ?

I just checked randomly checked out Sportsbet for this bet....


....and they already have 2.00 for this bet. So if you follow his bets and shop for even better odds, you could probably increase the yield to something like 5%+.

Wow, cool, congratulations Pretty good day for you, eh ? Big money in this promo, big money with winning the poker tournament, life is good

I am still licking my wounds from NFL draft promo and bets. Got 10 correct for E-Sports promo this weekend, which is the best result ever, but no cigar of course. When german Bundesliga starts again soon, I hope Sportsbet will put all 9 games in their promo.

I am always a bit more skeptical with QBs from the big Colleges. They have the best talent around them and of course that makes it easier for them to shine. His 2019 numbers at LSU were nothing but impressive, breaking NCAA records for passer rating (202.0) and total TD (60, yes 60!), but it could be kind of a fluke as well. It was one extraordinary season and with the Bengals he won't have the best talent around him for the start.

Is he the next Joe Montana ? As you said, only time will tell. He certainly is a Joe already and I don't expect him to be an average Joe. He has all the tools, but it needs a lot of factors to fall into place, to have a HoF career.

Did you just recently start to follow them ? Because most tipsters should really be on hold for the moment, if they are not specialized in E-Sports, table tennis etc. As mentioned above, lots of people try to bet their way through this crisis with what is still running, but this is a big red flag for me.

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This guy seems to have given up already, although he had a good start, but fluke of course. A scam accusation thread was opened, but I don't see this as a scam, just shady, dishonest, misleading or whatever, because the user is just asking for a share of winnings, while providing countless losing bets. The account has been tagged, so probably kind of abandoned already.

This could be the next thread of this user: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5243569

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Not a paid tipster, but someone started a challenge with improper tracking imo: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5243760

This is not true - we are not talking about some game like dice, where you can predict the result over a large enough sample siize. This is sportsbetting.

This bankroll management looks very aggressive, but why not, if it's just some challenge and you will get more conservative down the road anyway as you said. If possible, please post your selections pre-match, because just some screenshots of won bets prove nothing.

Good luck, will follow.

Oh ok, you said in first post, that you are "new to gambling", but were referring to games like dice etc, which is a good distinction. Sportsbetting and Poker are not gambling, but more skill-based realms and thus I would always call them something like investing instead.


Poker should suit you well, if you are into odds and probablities; there is a lot to learn and discover. The good thing with poker is, that you can often re-evaluate certain situations (e.g. hands), with the exact odds at hand and figure out, what you should have done better. Another advantage is, that you don't have to play against the best of the best like you have to do in sportsbetting. You can just choose to play in different limits, which suit your skill level and what you are comfortable with.

Some weeks ago a poker series was launched here in this forum, where fellow forumites play each other on the weekends: Bitcointalk SwC Championship Poker Series(50 mBtc added by SwC)

Don't be shy or afraid to join, there are players with all kind of skill levels and everyone is welcome. A new series for May will get announced soon.

House edge, in regards to this topic, is not often talked about when it comes to poker, since it's not that much of a factor. Poker sites just take their fees (rake) from you to use their platform and bring poker players from all over the world together at the tables.

Well, this is a well-written and informative post, but not a lot to add or discuss for us With you being new to gambling, it's probably not worth to spend (read: waste) your time looking into dice and similar games, where you just can't win longterm. It's ok to play them, if they entertain you, but don't expect any profits. Your post helps with finding a site with low house edge and thus minimizing your losses, but just minimizing losses would not satisfy me personally. I would look for another hobby instead then.

If you are interested in gambling and have a goal of maybe making some money with it longterm, look into poker and sportsbetting. You have a house edge there as well, but it's a house edge, that is beatable, if you put in the work

Yes, same here. That miss on Lamb was ok, but being fooled by these trade rumours hurts It also hurt other promos/games where I participated in. And look at this:




What a piss poor performance. I had put no stakes for Herbert pick, but all others add already up to -3.8 units. And only one bet won in total But at least it was the last one posted, so I can claim to be on a streak.

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But all in all it was nice to watch some "sports" again. Really showed me, how much I miss sports these days and especially NFL. Lets hope the season will start according to plan; can't wait to watch Tampa. Hoping for a Saints - Bucs matchup week1

Too bad I was so happy, when the Giants took McKinney, because it was good for the promo and I also like that pick in general, but that joy didn't last long Looks like we will both come up empty @morvillz7z, since one of those guys surely had McKinney/defensive combination.

Yes, seemed a bit like a desperate move, but GB surely just didn't do it for fun, so they must have heard some rumours. Looking a bit further down the list, I could imagine the Colts maybe thinking about moving up from #34. Get Love, let him learn one year behind Rivers and then put him in. Colts seem to have lost trust in Brissett being their answer at QB, so such a move would make sense.

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While waiting for the second round to start (nearly midnight here already ), it came to my mind that the Patriots could take McKinney and thus destroy all my Sportsbet promo hopes This would put us both at 12/15 @morvillz7z, but don't think it would be enough for any prize money. One of those 11/13 guys surely has McKinney/defensive player as well and would take the pot then. Even worse, if the Patriots pick Delpit or Winfield, but they have good safeties, so I think this won't happen.

Tbh this attitude won't get you very far in regards to signature campaigns (and in life in general for that matter). It's not like bounty managers are desperately looking for users to fill their campaigns - they are in the comfortable position to choose from a big pool of good posters and what best fits their needs or the advertising companies needs.

With you being a Jr Member, it will be hard to find a BTC-paying campaign right now as you can see in the first post of this thread. You would have to crawl your way up the rankings first.

Thank you. I liked my chances in this one - this is way better than E-Sports or even Soccer - but you need some luck as well. The last two questions (over/under for defensive/offensive players drafted in first round) were a bit tricky for someone not familiar with the draft, since over+over and under+under had no chance to be both correct, which gave an advantage to the more knowledgeable ones. Only over+under or under+over could result in both choices being correct and I indeed guessed correctly.


Tbh this was just a little (poor mans) hedge, because I had Alabama -0.5 vs LSU in another promo elsewhere Looked like I would lose both, but the Chiefs saved me in Sportsbet promo.


My thinking was, that Patriots already had a very good defense, but struggled offensively last season. And with Brady gone and aging WR's, I thought they would go WR with their first pick. If not WR, then I thought they would go offense anyway, since they have to kind of rebuild offensively and might want to get some new pieces for that. They have traded out of first round now and I am not sure what they are looking for tbh.

Yes, very surprising. Was pretty sure, he would be the first WR to get picked. And Cowboys don't really need him, he was just BPA. Otoh I am happy with it, because it means their defense will still suck.


Gettleman totally blew that one imo. Thomas was a reach at #4. He is just the safe pick, since you know what you get from him, while Wirfs/Willis have bigger upside. I just think that Thomas would have been there at around 8-15 and thus would have liked a trade. Maybe no one was willing. After everyone predicted trade mayhem, it was a non-show as so often. I was pretty sure some team would jump to #3 or #4, but nope. German commentators said, that it's maybe due to the virtual nature of the draft and a lot of GMs not being familiar with these internet things or it being too weary to organize a trade this way.


I am sitting right at the top of the leaderboard with 11/13. Was wrong with Okudah as well and had Lamb 1-12. I have McKinney to be first Safety drafted (quite surprising he is still available) and Pats going offensive player for the two remaining. Lets see. I missed one promo win already with a goal in 94th minute, so expect Lady luck to be on my side this time

With my bets I have a lot of red ones, only hit on Jeudy over 12.5 so far, which was biggest bet thanks god. One bet is still undecided and if it wins, could put me in profit. If not, it was a bad draft betting wise

Definitely no. It means risk and opportunity and you should always be opportunistic with betting, while managing your risk. What does that mean ? Do your due dilligence and don't jump all-in stake-wise right from the start, unless you have very good information/insight. There will be surprises and some crazy results, just like in a "normal" beginning of a season, but this should result in some nice value odds to be found as well. As always, more value is available inplay, so just watch some matches and observe. This will give you some good information on which you can probably base a live bet/trade or, if not, this information can be useful for the next round.

I like beginnings of a season and also look forward to the betting markets after this crisis, because markets will be more imperfect, which is a good thing.

This seems to be already the case:

+976% Profits in 1 day | Sports Betting | Premium & Fixed Picks
3 Fixed Sports Matches

There is no proof and the user denies, but it's very likely to be the same person and the account was tagged already.

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Edit: And now this thread was just opened: BIG SCAMMER

@Sportifywilliam is the Telegram handle that was also mentioned in one of the threads above (archived)

Still not sure, if this qualifies as scam, but it's certainly not good.

At the moment there is even overcapacity in regards to testing as the german health minister announced yesterday. We could do more, but less demand than supply actually, so extensive testing of Bundesliga players should be doable. I heard it costs 2.5mln Euro for Bundesliga, so no biggie too. I still think, it's good to give it a try with resuming Bundesliga, but if that experiment fails, there will be huge shitstorm of course. But I think everything will be fine health-wise and lots of people will be happy with some football going on again (including me).

I didn't come across such statistics with the antibodies. Hospitals and blood donour facilities have started calling recovered people to check for antibodies, but the tests seem to give false-positives more often than not and are not yet reliable. So people might feel kind of safe, when actually they are not. And capacity-wise the system is not yet ready for some antibody-testing-tourism, to have bigger sample sizes and draw more viable conclusions.