FTFY


 

I am glad that you said "seriously" otherwise I would have kept typing (and doing whatever the fuck I want)......


Oh wait?

What's your bitcoin origin story? I cannot recall if you said.

You heard about bitcoin in mid 2017?  or earlier?

You call 5.5 months away from halvening "heading into?"

Do you remember the halvening in 2016 was in June?  November 2015 to May 2016 was a pretty fucking bearish time-period, if I recall correctly.

Your $600 point does seem valid, here, yet there frequently can be questions and disagreements regarding where we are at, which is to try to speculate if we are going up or down from here and is the BTC price floating point pain bad enough.

I would say that in the vast majority of 2015 we were bouncing between $200 and $300... so yeah there was a lot of complaining, giving up and even expectation that the price was going to come back to those price points when it bounced out of that range at the end of 2015.

But then from November 2015 to May 2016, we were largely stuck in the $350 to $450 range, and surely a lot of complaining at that time, too. 

When we bounced above $450 in late May there was a lot of complaining between about August and October because BTC prices had regressed to $500s and $600s and there were questions whether the Bitfinex matter was going to take down the whole of bitcoin.

So even when we seemed to have recovered and reached new ATHs in the beginning of the year (2017), there were large FUD spreading attempts in March/April 2017 saying that sub $500 had to be revisited because BIG money was calling for it.. blah blah blah...


So, for me, it seems that we are currently stuck in the equivalence of the $350 to $450 range, yet of course, we have hardly any fucking clue regarding how long it is going to take to break back above our most significant local top of $13,880, and then from there are we going to get stuck a few more times before making a new ATH.

Some people think that breaking above $13,880 will cause making new ATHs as a kind of "given" and even though it does not seem to be too far, in terms of percentages to get from $13,880 to $19,666, there still could be some decent opportunities for profit taking in there. .. and attempts to drag this matter out and to shake as many weak hands as possible before real out of control FOMO can sink in. 

Seems to me that bearwhales have goals in life, too, and that is to keep BTC prices down for as long as they can and for as low as they can.  They cannot help their lil selfies, and their own behavior contributes towards causing the fucking outrageous explosive out of control FOMO behaviors that ensue.. 

Long term HODLers understand a lot of this, and the restriction of the new BTC supply does not help to make the bearwhale behavior less explosive, but instead to add more fuel to the likely ensuing explosion that seems almost inevitable, but maybe becomes worse and worse (better and better for HODLers) the longer that bearwhales are successful in keeping BTC prices down... Maybe they become victims of their own success, but it is more like something that they can only hold in the cage for so long... and any of us that really recognize and appreciate the pattern (even if we know that it is NOT guaranteed) are going to have a decent amount of our value prepared in such direction - meaning having had attempted to muster enough resources to accumulate a sufficient quantity of BTC without gambling too much.

Yeah, of course, there are still a lot of dumbasses who actually believe the bearwhale propaganda, yet some of them are going to convert and/or "become aware of bitcoin" during such out of control explosion period, and sure some of them will become casualties of that mess, but if they get in early enough, they still have decent chances of benefitting greatly, even if they are buying at $25k.. but of course, the price might subsequently come back down to $25k or even lower.... but anyhow whether it takes years to play out or months is still quite difficult to know, even though many of us have tentative feelings regarding how long this could take, and of course, I try to prepare myself for scenarios that are way the fuck less bullish than what even I have in my head to be quite likely.. .which is my lame-ass 6% per year price appreciation scenario... hahahahahahaha,,,,  and most of the damned time, I am quite satisfied to way the fuck outperform my own lame-ass conservative expectations.   

I thought that the BTC price started at about $7,200 and then pumped to nearly $7,800 and then came back down to $7,200.

Of course, today we have BTC price floating around the $7,350 arena, but not really statistically significant in the whole scheme of things, no?

Anyhow, what I am trying to say is that those kinds of BTC price fluctuations (whether fake outs or not) did not trigger any of my BTC sell orders or my BTC buy orders, so my amount of BTC stayed the same, so the value of my BTC stayed the same, too when the price moved up and down.

In other words, the above meme seems to be saying what happened, no?

Try to learn from your mistakes and do not over buy.  Also try to use dollar cost averaging which would involve taking money from your regular cash flow and allocating towards bitcoin. 

Of course, if you come across additional money, let's say $600.  You might want to consider how to buy with that $600, and the method is up to you, but I frequently recommend to divide any new money into three, which in this case would be $200.

you might say, well $200 is not very much money blah  blah blah.. but it all adds up, if you follow such a system on the longer term, then you can create systems in which you are both prepared for UP and for down and you do not overinvest or become too emotional, which seems to be part of the issue running through the sentiment of your post.

Anyhow with the three portions, you 1) buy $200 immediately, 2) DCA another $200 over a period of time, perhaps 6 months, but of course, you can choose another period of time that will become much more relevant to you, if you already have money stacked up in your budget for these kinds of DCA purposes and 3) set buy orders with $200 to buy on dips, and hopefully structuring such BTC buy orders that go way beyond your expectations of how far BTC might dip.  Currently I have BTC buy orders that go down to about $4k, and I have a bit more money that I could restructure if it appears that BTC prices might go lower, and so if BTC prices were to go below $5,500 or so, then I am going to have  to rethink some of my currently outstanding BTC buy orders.

So, as I mentioned above, you might think that this is not going to work because dividing into 3 causes the amounts to be too damned small, but that should not be the case if you engage in this strategy for a decently long period of time that would involve setting your BTC accumulation amounts (which should cause you not to overinvest) and then attempting to stay within your BTC accumulation amounts or at least maintaining such amounts once you reach it with DCA and buying on dips... and when you get better at it, then you just skim off small amounts of BTC if the price goes up and use that money for buying on dips, if they happen.



Try not to overbuy the dips, but if you do, then you might have to wait a bit in order to get into a better position.  Another thing that you could do is to sell a bit of BTC, and I would recommend selling small amounts when the price goes up rather than selling now out of hope for lower prices.  You just have to learn NOT to overextend yourself and to force yourself into a position merely because you ran out of money too soon.  Part of my philosophy is never to run out of dollars on the way down and never to run out of BTC on the way up, and yeah sometimes the price drops can last for so long and go so far that they become difficult to manage psychologically and/or financially, and accordingly, sometimes you just have to restructure your buy orders or your sell orders or whatever in order to put yourself back into a kind of neutral position (psychologically and financially).  Of course, if we are accumulating BTC, then we prefer for the BTC price to go up, but with any investment there is going to be ups and downs along the way, and bitcoin is quite notorious for such high levels of volatility, so good to prepare for that ahead of time.


That is correct.  That is why we need to attempt to prepare for situations in which BTC prices overshoot our expectations.. and that seems to happen a lot in these parts, and likely not going to go away anytime soon.  Part of the inevitably in bitcoin is price volatility, so each of us who gets involved in this space should prepare ourselves to the best of our abilities for such seemingly inevitable BTC price volatility.

You hardly make any sense.

1) when you buy bitcoin, you do not have to buy a whole one, so depending on where you get your bitcoin, you can buy in low increments, even $5 increments are allowed in some places.

2) buying alt coins is not the same thing as buying bitcoin.  There is more risk, and like you said buying ethereum largely follows bitcoin; however, buying ethereum adds more risk, too. 

3) buying to accumulate as a long term strategy works with projects that have long term fundamentals, so in that regard, if you were to fall in a coma for 5 years or 10 years, what would you like to have in your portfolio.  The risk with ethereum is that is is largely smoke and mirrors and difficult to understand what the fuck it is, exactly, so there is difficulties figuring out if it will even be a good investment in 1 year, and they have a transition from 1.0 to 2.0 snd other bullshit that has been part of its history.  Of course, it has pump potential, so maybe you are investing into ethereum for its pump potential, but that is a different investment thesis than longer term fundamentals.  Accordingly, I would suggest that bitcoin has long term fundamentals that are based largely on sound money principles, and ethereum does not have long term fundamentals, even though sometimes they try to even argue that they have sound money principles, which is again a bunch of smoke and mirrors phoney baloney talking points rather than fact based existence and/or developments.

Oh you are back, and attempting to employ the royal we, too?  Great.

Thought that WO thread participants were lucky enough to experience your disappearance from the thread a few months ago when you were talking some other nonsense baloney shit.. and now you are back?


You must be feeling somewhat invigorated by some of BTC's price movements of the past few weeks?  What other diptwat troll/shill no coiner bitcoin naysayer will show up next? joinoiv?

yeah right...

As if I am trying to impress anyone....  


Get a grip.  I am tempted... I am tempted...    




 

That's fine regarding calling a truce. 

I do  think that it is worth noting that I am not really trying to stop you from either posting  here or even from asserting your views strongly about what you believe to be the necessary direction of bitcoin from your opinion. 

On the other hand, when any of us expresses strong opinions sometimes responses from other members are not going to be nice.  These are the interwebs, so for example if any member asserts that we should be nice to each other or forms little alliances here and there, that member might end up getting attacked, so the attack is not even necessarily personal.

  I am not immuned from getting attacked either, so you don't necessarily need to accept that my opinion counts for much more than just one individual chiming in about a topic.

By the way, I understand that sometimes there can be a lot going on in personal life, too, and having to juggle personal life issues sometimes might get in the way of communicating in this thread, but also sometimes real life can also screw up investment strategies, because any of us might believe that we have our lives in order, and extra issues, expenses and emergencies do seem to have a tendency to come during BTC correction periods, including the fact that the correction seems to last a lot longer and to go a lot further than we may have been prepared for.

Wait.  For sure.

Perhaps wait for sub $3k.

Why would you want to buy now?  There has ONLY been less than a 50% correction from the $13,880 local high.

Whether you receive your income in BTC or fiat, you still have to consider how much of that BTC you are able to stock away. 

You are not going to earn shit if you are spending all your BTC, and you might end up losing a fuckton of value if you are spending it all of the time.  I am not merely referring to opportunity costs.

So yeah there are surely a large number of people who have difficulties HODLing their BTC.  I have met some of them in real life, so I know that it is a real phenomenon.

And, a similar problem exists with any investment.  You have to have enough faith in the investment to stack (stock) some of it away.. The stacked away  portion is what is going to have the potential to grow, and yeah, some people feel that they cannot stack, but the thing is that they have to figure ways to live within their means, and even very poor people can figure out ways to stack away 5% of their income, but they sometimes tend to get so damned fucking excited when the see that the value of their stacked away portion becomes equal to a year of their income or something like that, and they do not know how to manage their feelings about that and allow that money to continue to grow.. especially when they see it losing value in the shorter term.... so they start to think that it would be better to drive a BMW rather than a toyota... and then they are fucked because they live beyond their means rather than deferring their gratification, which is the ultimate profitable strategy in bitcoinlandia.  HODLers know this pain of deferred gratification.

Of course, I did the math, and $5,400 could happen.  I like to be prepared for extremes, but surely would be preferable if the bottom is already in.

I don't know how any of these models can apply exactly.  I mean we did get a correction down to $3,122, which took us really close to a year to play out, and then the $13,880 would have been nearly a 4.5x price spurt, even though I like to consider $4,200 as the base for that run.. which would cause it to only be a 3.5x price run.  At the same time the $3,122 bottom and the $4,200 bottom would have been 3.5 months apart, yet we are now more than a year away from the $3,122 bottom.

What I am suggesting is that it would likely be quite difficult to incorporate strict price performance models with bitcoin, and do you have a model that shows how an asset performs during exponential s-curve adoption and some of the unique aspects of bitcoin, including the fact that it both a communication medium, but of course the attached value component is one that has not been seen in history.. so of course more paradigm shifting than either the telephone or the internet - even though analogies can be attempted.



Oh gawd!!!      We should know we are in trouble when we are conceding that some kind of price move "has to happen" sooner or later.

Bitcoin no doesn't work like that, even though there are a lot of sorcerer wannabes who make these kinds of proclamations - and of course, they get way the fuck more credit than they deserve for the times that they had happened to have been correct.  Let's just ignore the buttload of times that they were wrong in order that we can attribute more credibility to their assertions than such assertions deserve... 


Get a grip, NeuroticFish!  We are still lined up quite well with the four year fractal and stock to flow and other bullish scenarios that might cause down before up to be less probable than you are making it out to be.


No need to rethink it all.  Just take it with a grain of salt and buy if the price goes down.. because ultimately it is going up.  If you start to believe that down is inevitable, then you are more likely to do the wrong thing, and sure if you get tricked out of only 10% of your BTC stash, you might be lucky, and that is exactly what the bearwhale manipulators want HODLers to do.. second guess their accumulation strategies to sell instead of buy (or at least HODL if you run out of money).


Heard that before, and usually it is not good to get some additional downward movement because it frequently just inspires more attempts at downward movement.  In other words, we have had enough down, so why not up before down, rather than down before up?  Why not?  Oh?  the reason why is because some bear wannabe sorcerers have asserted that we must have down before up?  What a bunch of baloney, even if it is possible, it is far from a "must".

Maybe at some point I am going to lose my patience about this topic?  I was attempting to give some benefit of the doubt, but the more that I think about it, it seems that the way that you are framing the whole matter is another thread rather than this thread.

There are already rules in this thread, which are pretty much wide open and criticism is allowed, so you are attempting participants in your discussion to agree to a more restrictive set of rule of politeness blah blah blah... Which seems almost that you want the powers of a moderated thread within this thread that is moderated by someone else (largely infofront in this case).




There is a need for a common goal, and you seem to be presuming that there is some kind of common goal, which has already been mentioned to you by another poster.




Expressing these concepts in a weird way... it is like you learned about a concept in school and you are trying to apply it to the real world, or at least to this thread... like a little experiment.



Even Roach, with his usually dumbass ideas, says something contributory, once in a while, but the vast majority is garbage and for that reason it is frequently better to just call him names.. but even with regular posters, sometimes it is more clear to make the point by calling them dumbass or their ideas.. sometimes we might reach the wrong conclusion about some members in terms of their genuineness, but if they get on some kind of dumb kick, then devolution of the conversation to personal attacks might create a much clear message.  

In other words, you cannot presume everyone on the interwebs is genuine in their attempts to contribute to solving problems, even if you outline the problems in your quasi-patronizing assumptive ways of your earlier posts.




Yeah, if you try to do this in your own thread, then you worry that no one will participate, that is why you are pushing this theoretical nonsense on us, no?

We can brainstorm or discuss all the fuck that we like, and if you have some ideas, then you can present them as either brainstorming or discussing or whatever you want, but when you are trying to prescribe that responders should respond within your constructed framework because it is supposedly superior mode for achieving some presumed common objective, then you either have to get their cooperation or maybe they will just tell you to fuck off, which is breaking your artificial attempts to impose such restrictive guidelines.



Yes, many of us want orange coin  to go up, but whatever are we trying to rush adoption because we have some kind of vision?  That is what the BIG blockers, bitcoin naysayers, no coiners and alt coin pumpeners strive to suggest that there is something wrong with bitcoin, and I am not going to go along with that kind of presumption...

Anyhow, there are constantly people working on all kinds of developments, and if they can build a great user interface, then there could likely be monetary and even fame incentives for them to come up with killer apps... or whatever are the needed developments.. Otherwise, on a personal level, as an investor in bitcoin, I am not complaining that the royal "we" are moving too slow and blah blah blah.. because bitcoin already has all kinds of killer use cases, and it is quite amazing the incentives that are developed for security, to make it really difficult and expensive to attack it... of course not impossible, but can there be enough incentives for governments to try to get together and coordinate attacks against it, and maybe they might try, but governments are made of individuals too, and they have wack-a-mole problemas when they are trying to figure out ways to coordinate within macro-systems that seem to be quite competitive, too... which bitcoin has been built around.. and just a matter of time, and who cares about these little gripes about average joe blah blah blah.. if average joe is smart enough, he can already use bitcoin to his advantage to move millions of dollars and no one can say anything about it (not that average joe has millions of dollars in his basement in the form of gold that needs to be converted.... hahahahaha).




People working on things, so I don't seen how it "has to be" anything that you are suggesting.  In other words, it is already convenient and safe enough to provide value.  If you or anyone wants to work on some improvements, then get to work... maybe you can make some money in the process, too... or become famous for improving bitcoin's user interface.



Everyone has their perspective, and their prioritization of what they believe is important.  I have heard a lot of this bullshit that bitcoin needs mass adoption blah blah blah.. and it is just misleading, and fuck all if some people believe that mass adoption needs to be rushed... it will come when it comes, and there should be some assurances that systems are continuing to be built that are going to allow more and more mass adoption.  Perhaps one of the frustrations for bitcoin HODLers is to see that the security of bitcoin could allow for a 100x price increase, and still be secure, but even there are issues with that, so we cannot just get 100x of growth, it is almost as if the cost of mining have to go up to some extent, otherwise if the cost is $3k to $10k to mine bitcoins, then everyone and his brother is going to be jumping into mining bitcoin if the bitcoin price is $500k or higher.... so sometimes, there are a variety of factors that will keep the price from going up faster than can be sustained.

I saw one of the charts that showed bitcoin prices at $1million by 2032, and that seems more sustainable than reaching it by 2026, but you never know in bitcoin.  We are likely to get spikes that are similar to past spikes, even though I suspect that the severity of the spikes might become less extreme as market cap goes up, even though with rising market cap, there are also much BIGGER financial players that can cause some of the same kind of extremes in BTC price volatility that we have already historically seen.


Hm?  I wonder if I am going to have a hard time hiding in a crowd?  If someone says, could you write a paragraph on this topic, and as soon as I start writing, I am identified.... Fuckmy life, my opsec has become worser and worser than those micgeese. #nohomo.

Pure technicality!!!!!

We are talking about a fiction, here, or maybe even a dream... because clicking red slippers together is not going to transport anyone anywhere either, even if merely a little girl.

Helrow!!!!!

Fair enough.  Sounded to me that you were concerned that you might not have had enough "use" avenues, so just wanted to clarify that you might not be slipping into some kind of BIG blocker jaded perspective.

I might not really agree with your various BTC sell thresholds, but it is good that you have a devised a tentative round about plan that you believe will work for you and your situation.  At least if you have some kind of plan, then you are more likely to act rather than getting paralyzed by the shock of whatever the BTC price dynamics develops into in the coming years.  Of course, it is possible that we never go above $12k ever again, and hopefully you have considered that possibility, too, in your tentative BTC management plan.  


I resemble that statement.   

Are you in a country in which you are able to buy, accumulate and HODL BTC, and who cares if you can use it or sell it?  Maybe put off the selling and using until some time into the future?  5-10 years might be o.k?  In the meantime, could be buy, accumulate and HODL are good enough short to medium term strategies, no?


Hm?  Maybe dee roach is capable of learning?  

I had my doubts, but for some strange reason you seem to be coming around a little bit.

So now that you becoming more learned, maybe you might want to considering buying some BTC instead of holding out for sub $700, which is not going to happen?    


I cannot think of one person who would engage in such BTC laddering complexiting behaviors.  Get real.

Did someone die and put you in charge of my ability to exercise posting discretion?

What a world, what a world!!!




Might be a good topic for a new thread.., especially if you don't want the questions and answers to get lost in the mess...  and of course, sometimes brainstorming does involve criticisms... these here are the interwebs.. not necessarily always the safest of spaces, and does it really matter if people criticize from time to time?... you fucker.