I did?

I thought that I was merely battling out the matter with Biodom to suggest that conclusion is bullshit and to suggest for the vast majority of cases DCA rules - especially for less sophisticated investors, even though anyone can put in some work, research, thinking about their own financial circumstances and create more advanced versions of DCA..... or maybe a kind of DCA hybrid that is  prudent and customized to their own situation, or if they have a lot of money, then they have a lot more options including DCA or lump sum or whatever they like, but they will still be advantaged by doing some tailorizing fo their strategy, if they have time.

Well, they could save up until they do have a lump sum, and then end up using that lump sum on something stupid, which is what a vast majority of peeps do if they do not employ some kind of dollar cost averaging into an investment (whether bitcoin or some other investment)... that is part of the reason that so many people (especially americans according to credible statistics) do not have shit.  They both have lack of will power to invest (save) into anything, and the main thing that they have is their house, and they frequently end up borrowing against that too (if they are given that option).



Of course, and analyzing all scenarios frequently shows that dollar cost averaging is a fucking powerful tool.  Of course, if people run into lump sums or then they should attempt to exercise that option prudently, in the event that is available to them.

My first years in BTC was based on both lump sums and DCA and buying on dips.  But anyhow, if peeps do not have time to figure out what the fuck to do, then they can engage in DCA in the meantime until they figure it out.

Another aspect with DCA, there needs to be a certain amount of conviction to the long term prosperity of the underlying asset, and also accomplished with amounts that are meaningful, which still means that people need to do some work to make sure that their finances are in order and to pay off higher debts first and don't be leveraging or gambling too much, but also putting enough stake in the game that it can make a meaningful difference.

Of course, if person A only had $1k per month of income, which only really results in about $100 that possibly could be invested into bitcoin, then that person might only end up prudently being able to conclude to invest $20 to $50 in bitcoin... that surely is discretionary.  On the other hand, if someone has $6k to $10k a month, then that person should be able to figure out some kind of budgeting arrangement that allows them to invest several hundred, if not the area of thousands per month into bitcoin or whatever other various allocations of investments that the person should be attempting to make... and the more investment that someone has, then the more investment options they have, including lump summing... that might not even be available for so many other normies.. and that is part of the reason that DCA is so powerful for so many people... but they still should be attempting to think about their investment matters somewhat and making sure that their finances are somewhat in order so that they do not have to dig into their BTC investment at some inopportune time... which is also frequently a BIG ask, if people do not make sure that their finances are somewhat in order.


Of course, if you have options then you have options.  DCA is for the vast majority of peeps, and even those with options should be able to figure out ways to employ DCA to their advantage rather than trying to wait for perfect timing which might cause them to fail to act rather than starting on employing a prudent plan right away, that most likely should involve DCA in order to be prudent.


Nothing wrong with that if you know how to do it in a way that is not too much gambling.  People can leverage money that is available to them.. that is for sure.   NOT everyone has those tools available to them.

Also, usually it is better to use leverage to engage in investing or business activities, and not in consumption or buying of depreciating assets, which is frequently what a lot of people do.... so for example it might be really stupid to mortgage your house to buy a Mercedes or bmie or Lambo when you really need a Honda, Hyundai, Toyota or Ford, and you could afford a decent utility and practical vehicle that is even a few years old, such as a a Honda, Hyundai, Toyota or Ford, without mortgaging your house.. and you could even buy more bitcoins if you are more prudent with your budget, etc etc.




I have used it before too, and it is surely not as easy as pure DCA, but it can be used to supplement DCA and also to ensure that you can pay it back before any penalties kick in... and yes, it can be very profitable tool, if you know how to use it to profit, and if you are able to handle some of the complications of projecting your cashflow in such a way that you are not having an emergency 12 to 24 months when the thing might become due on a balloon basis.


Of course, the terms of even paying a higher percentage can still make some sense depending on  how it is used, but it might not be necessary if you cannot justify the costs of the loan.  Of course, if you ensured to earn more money than the interest and you can handle the complication(s), then it would make sense, and bitcoin would not necessarily be one of those vehicles, but if there are ways to finagle money flows then borrowing some money can supplement other monies that you have and allow you to invest more in BTC (or something else perhaps) than you otherwise would have been able to accomplish in a strict save and wait manner. 

Another good thing about bitcoin that has not really been available to normies and traditional investment has been abilities to invest really small ass amounts and even a few dollars a day or whatever.  Probably a lot of us have known people who have difficulties holding onto any money.  I remember that for several years, I used to sell a product (a combination goods and services) to a guy, and he seemed finicky as fuck when i first met him, but as I got to know him, he pretty much revealed his personality problems to me, and he seemed like the kind of guy who easily got taken advantage of.  He would frequently tell me, when getting an update on his product/services, that he wanted to pay me as soon as possible and while he had the money because otherwise he would spend the money on something else.

Yeah... but we never know if the correction is going to be long one or a short one. 

Thanks for the information.  All kinds of BTC price movements are possible.  You are really a smartie pants.   

FTFY    



Gosh.  My image is NOT good in the eyes of micteam.   

DCA is still way the fuck more practical for the vast majority of peeps.

Most of us already know that a large number of peeps cannot even come up with a few hundred dollars for an emergency.

Therefore it is way the fuck better for them to invest regularly, as if they were buying a coffee or an extra bag of groceries or whatever and then just forget about it for 5 years or more.

What is blockchain payment?  Something new?

I agree with concepts of not to overthink, and to just buy.. in a kind of dollar cost averaging way.. but frequently there does take some thinking to figure out how much you can buy without gambling or overextending yourself.



That is pretty optimistic, and it could happen.  However, the beginning portions of an exponential curve (if we are in one) might look different than later portions.  Furthermore, it is probably a lot more prudent to have a conservative range, including both starting from current price, and even if you are projecting up to also have some conservative numbers.  

By the way, your starting point seems to be both high numbers and using ATH from 2017 as your starting point, so even your numbers should be more conservative if they go from a more reasonable starting point, such as current price, but I will note that if you count every year, a 2x every year still does get us much above $3.2 million in 10 years.


Here's an illustration of a few differing scenarios of varying steady appreciation:


yearly/%  6%      50%      100%        150%
2019      $8,000   $8,000     $8,000        $8,000
2020      $8,480   $12,000     $16,000        $20,000
2021      $8,989   $18,000     $32,000        $50,000
2022      $9,528   $27,000     $64,000        $125,000
2023      $10,100   $40,500     $128,000     $312,500
2024      $10,706   $60,750     $256,000     $781,250
2025      $11,348   $91,125     $512,000     $1,953,125
2026      $12,029   $136,688     $1,024,000  $4,882,813
2027      $12,751   $205,031     $2,048,000  $12,207,0 31
2028      $13,516   $307,547     $4,096,000  $30,517,578

You can see from these charts that even conservative estimates gives you decent returns, and probably more realistic prediction tables would show a tapering off of the amount of the annual return rather than keeping the annual return as a constant through the next 10-year period.

They probably did not help in either the American Civil War or the American Revolution either; those fucks. 

O.k.  So maybe Elwar should make a claim in front of the International Tribunal for Human Rights?  Good luck with winning a verdict, but if the law is on his side, he might be able to prevail.


 I thought that I was agreeing with V8 and suggesting that Elwar was trying to spin matters in terms of how many rights he is proclaiming to have.  Seems to me that you are going to have a hard time fighting any state on these kinds of matters, even if the actual location happens to be outside of their official boundaries.


We don't disagree.


These seem to be fair topics, even though some of us might disagree about how related they are to bitcoin, and around the time a bit before that Elwar got chased by the Thai authorities, I was not really very excited about Elwar's having had been pumpening of his seastead stakes in this thread, but whatever there seems to be some attempt to relate the matter to bitcoin, and some of us might get riled up again, if there starts to be attempts to sell some of the products and things like that.

O.k.  That makes sense.  I am sure that there can be some fun in the "living and learning" situation, and even attempting to figure out ways in which you can be consistently more profitable...   


Yep.... Maybe in the end, we are on similar grounds when the vast majority of our BTC holdings is in the background in HODL status rather than playing around with it?
 

 Makes sense.   

When we were mostly staying above $10k for a long time, I had scheduled several extra buy orders (like injecting more cash into the system) in the $9.4k to $10k range, with some ponderings about whether I should just market buy at higher prices or to just let matters play out, in terms of a potential BTC price drop, and surely we now know how that played out.  Every single one of my extra orders were executed.  So, it ended up that I wasn't being overly conservative, go figure. 


Yep.  None of us are immuned.  What comes around goes around. 

 

Oh I am starting to see.  Individuals like Elwar should be able to just state his territory anywhere he likes, even if he does not have an armed forces to back him up... and nation states should just roll over and allow that?


Good luck asserting your freedom to build anywhere that you like and to assert your area as your own sovereign territory.


O.k.  So individuals are equal to states.  Hm?


You think that these are the same?  Good luck with that.

It seems to me that bitcoin is a bit of a different kind of thing, and can only be successful through a decently long time building of resilience and attack resistance.  You better be a lot more coy if you think that you are going to be able to make any kind of seastead that even comes close to the potential resilience of BTC. 

Surely bitcoin is not a guaranteed success either, and in its beginning, there was a bit of luck that building was done without a lot of scrutiny, and so the current state of bitcoin is quite a bit harder to attack than it would have been in its first few years of existence.  At the same time, there appears to be millions and millions of people buying into bitcoin and developing various systems around it, which surely contribute to its resilience. 

Personally, I feel a lot more comfortable with my investment in bitcoin and even various kinds of liquidity than I would to attempt to make some kind of ideological stance and to put myself out there in a seasteading context in order that I could get hammered down, imprisoned or killed like you already acknowledged to be a real threat.  We only live so long, and surely there are going to be guys (and gals) who are going to be braver than others in terms of putting their bodies on the line.  I personally would not equate that individuals investing into bitcoin are having to put their bodies on the line in the same kind of way to both support bitcoin and to invest various kinds of value into it, including time, sweat equity and money.  So, in that regard, your attempted comparison of seasteading to bitcoin seems a bit off base.

Problem is that he is overinvested.  Surely, maybe it is not Bob himself, but if he is taking into account considerations of his partner as being valid considerations, then as a team, they are overinvested, and that is why all the seeming waffling and seeming shaving off of relatively large chunks of BTC holdings at seemingly weird and inopportune times.

Yep.  Especially if you poke them by engaging in arguably illegal conduct.  Go figure?



Hahahahahaha

What a convenient spin.   

Thanks for the link, VB.

I glanced through the article, and even though the title is "crypto derivatives,"  the discussion seems to be almost exclusively about bitcoin in terms of what is the underlying referent "crypto" asset.

I am thinking that the name, "crypto derivative" might be a kind of generic future-proofing attempt rather than any meaningful attempt to avoid the word bitcoin or out of fear of bitcoin, perhaps?

Surely, it could be possible that some of the other cryptos (that we affectionately, and not so affectionately, refer to as "shit coins") could be added to some of these kinds of indexes or the various ways of attempting to measure bitcoin value, changes in bitcoin value and changes in perception of bitcoin value.  The space moves slowly, but sometimes looking back or comparing to other asset classes, we likely can recognize that the space, in regards to bitcoin, moves fast too, and there seem to be a lot of thought and efforts into considering some of these kinds of potential financial offerings that will contribute ongoing and interestingly evolving dynamics to the bitcoin space.

What do you mean by "make me whole"?   Are you valuing your situation in fiat?  If you made some profits from BTC's price going down and you have accumulated some more BTC from BTC's price going down, then relatively speaking, you are better off from BTC's price going down than guys like me who are merely engaging in longs only.  Thus, my whole networth has gone down about the 70% or more as much as BTC's price drop to the amount of my number of BTC's except for the price drop has allowed me to buy more BTC in the sub $8k territory where my next buy orders had been set to buy back about half of the BTC that I had sold in the $8,700 arena.... which those BTC trades are actually buy backs that rise to the level of less than .1% of my BTC value... (that is less than 1/10 of a percent)...

So anywhooooo,  what I am trying to say is that any ability to profit in BTC from shorts is putting you in a better position than those of us who are only engaging in strategies that involving opening and closing longs.



hahahahaha  

I kind of like this moniker... In my thinking, the only way to improve it would be to add a few more adjectives such as "[the nosey pain-in-the-ass no homo] ignored JJG".  

What do you call it then?  Surely it is not incrementalism.  It is a kind of relatively large scale relief of pressure, no?  Aka dump, no?   in other words if someone is engaged in a dumping practice, then they could be considered a dumper, at least for that particular action.  He's done it before, too... so it is not like an isolated incident, either.

I am not trying to side one way or another, and frequently Bob asserts that I am too much of a meanie, but seems that we should be calling a spade a spade rather than trying to sugarcoat.  AmiNOTrite?   

Yeah,  I remember that too.  I watched it, and I might have even bought .1BTC or some other quantity into that wall, to the extent that I had any money left in my budget during those psychologically difficult times in terms of BTC's price fall that seemed as if it would not stop.

Furthermore, the whole of 2015 BTC's price was mostly below $300 and frequently in the $225 arena.  

Of course, late 2015 showed that the $300 dumper had been wrong, but we still don't know who that was, and surely it is quite possible that s/he/it had a whole year to acquire all of those coins back (and more) below the dump price.  

So there could be some lesson in dumping or going with the dump too, even though, I personally would not play like that because the $300 dump had actually taken place towards the bottom of a then 75% (considering $1,163 as the then top) that ultimately had gone down to about an 87% correction (spiking down to $152), and a large time hovering between $220 and $250 (78.5 to 81% correction levels).

Exactly!!!!!

Plans to cash out BTC should be more strategic and incremental and account for likely BTC rises in the next 2 to 6 years rather than based on fears and emotional concerns about downside potential that is NOT as likely as the FUD spreaders are making it out to be. 


But whatever guys are going to do what they are going to do, and since Bob has previously presented some of his actual numbers, rather than percentages, I would imagine that 50BTC is around 1/8 or more of Bob's BTC stash... so seems to me to be a bit emotionally based to be cashing out so large of a percentage of his stash based on little blips up in BTC's price and seemingly over concernedness about BTC possible downside, which is likely more of a shortterm thing and NOT as likely as mainstream media FUD would like us to believe.

We need d_eddie to slap you upside the head Gyrsur so you will start to follow his system.  Getting liquidated with relatively small price movements likely indicates that you are gambling too much with your BTC trading tactics (even if they are play ones).