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13041  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 06:21:34 PM
This new tweet from PlanB reminded me of the method of crossings, which is applied in calculus, they call it "The Cemetery method".

Great analysis for negotiating data in these 10 years of history.




I need a bit more  explanation in order to attempt to get closer to understanding what is significant about this way of attempting to arrange the data.  In other words, I cannot really appreciate what the chart is saying.. it just looks like a clumping blob of colors.
13042  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 06:15:19 PM
@JJG - You must have paid ridiculously low fees on those transactions.

When they came back, there were no fees.... everything came back. The main reason that I remember was because I kept thinking that this is not supposed to happen.. .so I still have not figured out why it happen because I did not do anything like attempting to employ Replace By Fee (RBF) or anything like that.
13043  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 06:09:27 PM
It’s cryptoqueeen ‘s BDay dinner

Cheers
Observers

Mic, congrats to Cryptoqueeen

LoL mic brother is  cryptoqueeen?  Grin
Mic is awesome WO guy.  

Nono, way of Wink
she's my GF, sometimes she writes something here, but a bit less as than I write in here...

FTFY - Understatement of the year.   Wink  even though currently feels a bit "annoying" your team will thank me later, perhaps? Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
13044  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 06:06:16 PM
Just withdrew the corn I bought earlier today. Man, feels good to see my TREZOR balance rise!

"Buy BTC, HoDL, wait, ∞!"TM

---

Edit: Took 50 minutes to confirm. Not the best performance, but the fee was quite low. All good!

As long as the fee isn’t super low use this - https://pool.viabtc.com/tools/txaccelerator

When we were in the last parabolic rise & Roger was spamming the network I sent a few transactions with a fairly high amount of coins & fucked up by not manually setting my fees. It was taking forever so I used the above. It’s a good service & free.

Thanks LFC, never used a Tx accelerator before, but have heard of them. Good to know that it worked when you tried it, will keep it handy.

The important thing is that, no matter how long they take, all transactions eventually confirm, which shows the super-robustness of the Bitcoin network. For all practical purposes, Bitcoin confirmations are "irreversible certainties". And way faster and cheaper than any fiat Tx...  Cool

I had a couple transactions come back to me in 2017.... so I am not sure what can cause that because I did not do anything besides attempting to send and getting a pending transaction that ended up coming back to my wallet.
13045  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 06:02:10 PM


Infofront sleeping at the wheel.

Maybe fatty has worn him out? 

Bad fatty!!!!  Bad fatty!!!!  (hehehehehehe not the same as saying "fuck you fatty", without any other content.....  Wink ././.....   #nohomo )
13046  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 07:15:03 AM
There are some pretty severe security concerns around Casa Hodl at the moment.  

https://twitter.com/jwweatherman_/status/1182486419580866560?s=21

Hmmm. Lopp-Meister FTW.


I know that Lopp is CTO, but what does Meister have to do with anything related to Casa Hodl security issues?  Are you talking about Adam Meister or some other Meister?

Nope. Just Lopp. Just ‘meister’ in the generalized head honcho sense.

(glancing about and whistling nonchalantly)

Hey! Wasn’t Casa the developer of some bullet proof security protocol!?

(glancing about and whistling nonchalantly)

You still did not say who is Meister?  And who fucking gives any shits if a company fucks up their security practices?  Does  that reflect on the bitcoin protocol or something?  You can keep whistling but it just amounts to a kind of retarded disconnect as far as I can see from the information (and the lack of logical connections) that you have so far provided in whatever lame point that you are trying to make.   You hope that some bitcoiners lose some money because of those security flaws, is that your point?
13047  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussionthe on: October 13, 2019, 07:11:18 AM
[edited out]
If one of the other Bitcoins does indeed capture more market cap than BTC in the future, will you concede that that other fork will indeed be Bitcoin?

You cannot really believe that "the real bitcoin" is based on market cap, can you? 

‘zackly. What else you got?

I am sure that you heard of various network effects by now, you purposeful diptwit.

your stupid ass bcash variants have hardly any network effects, either calculated separately or combined, and even if there were some kind of pumpening of either or those pieces of trash (even if they were to rejoin forces.. hahahaha), that pumpening in itself would not be enough to presume network effects.  Network effects take time, and sometimes are a bit difficult to measure, but they are more than a mere market cap measurement, especially if such market cap might not be sustained, which was the other aspect of my post that you purposefully deleted out, because apparently, you prefer to selectively respond in a way that allows you to spin phoney baloney ideas and muddy any kinds of waters that you might be able to muddy. 

You guys (I mean nutjob scammersw) preparing ur lil selfies for a pumpening and perhaps another spamming attack that you likely will not be able to sustain?  You have enough resources to accomplish all of that?  Nonsense spreading helps, right, if it is convincing?   Work harder jbreher?  AmiNOTrite?
13048  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 07:00:52 AM
Roach knows about almost every fucking topic in the world

[mumbo jumbo nonsense from a fucktard, guess who?]

I should not encourage you because you tend to be intended to fail/refuse to read the proper sarcasm contained in my earlier assertion....  I am doubting whether there is any hope for you, at all.    Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
13049  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 06:51:59 AM
There are some pretty severe security concerns around Casa Hodl at the moment. 

https://twitter.com/jwweatherman_/status/1182486419580866560?s=21

Hmmm. Lopp-Meister FTW.


I know that Lopp is CTO, but what does Meister have to do with anything related to Casa Hodl security issues?  Are you talking about Adam Meister or some other Meister?
13050  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 06:47:41 AM
Fuck politics get back to Bitcoin, why don't we go up? I was told to enjoy $16k in October. Where is it? 18 days left to November,

Who the fuck told you that?  You want me to beat them up for you?

Or maybe you are the one who deserves a beating for relying on promises (and then propagating such nonsensical promises) when anyone with any kind of scintilla of common sense in bitcoinlandia should realize that there is no such thing as a promise in bitcoin, especially when it comes to short-term price movements.  AmiNOTrite?



Asuka needs get her shit back together as soon as possible. People's dreams are on the line here. All those lambos, hoos, parties, yachts... Get back to work Asuka enough lollygagging

Who is Asuka?  Has she participated in this thread or been quoted in this thread in any kind of memorially significant way?

some anon on reddit and yes, he/she was quoted repeatedly.
All these predictions always fall apart sooner or later, even the one from the "time traveler", which was quite successful, is about to kick the bucket at the EOY.
The "citadels" idea might persist, though.


Hm?  I don't recall seeing those predictions in this thread, so I suppose it is not memorial for me.  Perhaps, I am not reading this thread (and retaining) as thoroughly as I should be... for some strange reason.

Yes, it was discussed here and you even merited this.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52289353#msg52289353

the only thing is i am not sure if that Anon is the one prior poster related to. maybe not. In any case, this is the only viral prediction on reddit that i was aware of.

Ok... Fair enough.

6 weeks is a long time ago in terms of remembering some things, including a variety of posts, too - even if I had merited that particular post.  Maybe Alzheimer's is kicking in?  Sucks to be me.   Cry Cry
13051  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 04:17:34 AM
That's the spirit, d_eddie!!!!   I was not trying to bust your balls over anything, especially in terms of some of the Opsec issues or even the potential "trade secret" problems that could come from too many "trading disclosures;"

I know. I don't think I'm busting my opsec, and I have no issue with would-be copycats. Firstly, I doubt there are any copycats in this context, and secondly my trading is labor-intensive enough to discourage the average lazy ass.

That sounds correct.

yet frequently talking about trading strategies after they have been deployed should be less of a risk of the copy cat problem.. and sure if you want to refer to some kind of practice that you do in kind of an obscure way, that might be understandable too if you are trying to retain it as a kind of possible personal "trade secret" advantage that you believe that you might have.

No issue about the possible edge I could gain through my perfect, infallible personal trade secrets either.

One issue I have is that I try not to "jinx it", so to say. IOW, if a whale sniffing our waters figures my thinking is sound in a given context, and reckons many traders might be aligned with my entry points or moves, they could try and force a few stops just because they can. This is a good reason to be vague enough for the casual hunter not to sniff pray, while entertaining a meaningful conversation with like-minded gentlemen (or scoundrels, or different minded, for that matter).

Surely, that makes sense.

By the way, you are quite unlikely to get me attempting to even employ your various strategies,

Your numerous and extensive posts made this point quite clear  Tongue

Great.  You don't consider me as a potential trade secret robber.   Wink

even though I frequently sigh some relief (when I read them) that I am NOT attempting to employ them (even if there may be considerable market move times that you could well likely be stacking decently more sats than me).  
Actually, now I manage to act with cool detachment. A little experience helps, of course, but this system has many soft levers, knobs and faders. The positions, as well as the P&L, evolve slowly over time, more so the more the positions are balanced. That's why I have time to think, calculate, project and act rationally rather than on emotion. The quiet satisfaction of bringing home 1% of my play stash, then 2%, then losing 1% and making up for it in the following 2 weeks doesn't compare to the adrenaline rush of a newfound lambo, of course, but it's good enough for me.

There is a certain level of satisfaction that comes from stacking sats, even if the process is a bit drawn out, and furthermore, you seem to have developed your own renditions and/or signature techniques.  Of course, there may be some guys (and maybe even a gal or two) who does something similar to you, but surely, your personal investment into your technique has caused you to have a kind of expertise in your own customization, whether truly SOMA or just outwardly proclaimed for modesty sakes as such... hahahahaha.

And when maybe a couple months later I can stash away 10% or even 30%, I'm glad I found a viable "system" (of sorts) that works for me.

Lambos, hookers and blow are on their way, including the fact that many of us, including yours truly, have stacked our strategies to be more weighted towards long, so even though the lambos, hookers and blow are not 100% guaranteed, there is decent likelihood that they are on their way and also, even if scenarios play out that are less than lambos, hookers and blow, then many of us, especially those of us who are stacking towards long and likely including those of us who attempt to prepare for price directions that go both ways, are still quite likely to become a decent amount better off in both our psychology and our finances from our having been involved in bitcoin.   Of course, a going to zero situation would also be amongst the worst possibilities for those of us who are mostly going long, even though you might be able to profit somewhat from that kind of scenario.  I also have a preference that BTC prices never return below $5k, especially in years to come, even though I would still likely be profitable with prices in the $1k price arena.. still, it feels a lot better to have decent amounts of equity built up.
13052  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2019, 12:07:35 AM
[edited out]

I don't believe we're still in a bull market no, but that's complete subjective to the time-frame. Why do you assume I'm putting such reliance on negative projections? I hodl long-term and accumulate more as the price drops. A short call doesn't necessarily mean I'm going to trade it, and in this case I definitely wouldn't as a bounce is due at anytime to re-test $9K, so clearly way too risky. It's simply what certain indicators and comparisons are telling me. I don't just blindly follow them, that would be ridiculous.

Just because probability is telling me one thing, doesn't mean it will occur, that should be obvious to be honest.
Buy the f**king dip. That better?

I cannot really disagree with much, if any, part of your clarification. 




 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
13053  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 11:58:30 PM
Fuck politics get back to Bitcoin, why don't we go up? I was told to enjoy $16k in October. Where is it? 18 days left to November,

Who the fuck told you that?  You want me to beat them up for you?

Or maybe you are the one who deserves a beating for relying on promises (and then propagating such nonsensical promises) when anyone with any kind of scintilla of common sense in bitcoinlandia should realize that there is no such thing as a promise in bitcoin, especially when it comes to short-term price movements.  AmiNOTrite?



Asuka needs get her shit back together as soon as possible. People's dreams are on the line here. All those lambos, hoos, parties, yachts... Get back to work Asuka enough lollygagging

Who is Asuka?  Has she participated in this thread or been quoted in this thread in any kind of memorially significant way?

some anon on reddit and yes, he/she was quoted repeatedly.
All these predictions always fall apart sooner or later, even the one from the "time traveler", which was quite successful, is about to kick the bucket at the EOY.
The "citadels" idea might persist, though.


Hm?  I don't recall seeing those predictions in this thread, so I suppose it is not memorial for me.  Perhaps, I am not reading this thread (and retaining) as thoroughly as I should be... for some strange reason.
13054  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 11:50:39 PM
BS goals or worthy endeavor (FI/RE)?

https://nypost.com/2019/10/08/inside-the-strange-secretive-lives-of-rich-millennial-cheapskates/

I think that peeps on WO with significant coinage might want to spare some for a better living.
Otherwise, all that sat stacking is for what?
Frugality has it's pluses, but there are also a lot of minuses.
Essentially, you would have a bunch of money when you are old, however, when you are old, your plans are typically limited.

Great financial advice... to be frugal and then retire early.  It's called deferred gratification, and if you end up retiring before you are 50 or something like that, then there could be plenty of time to enjoy the fruits of such early in life frugalities.
13055  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 11:44:28 PM
Roach knows about almost every fucking topic in the world, even though he has demonstrated that he is one of the dumbest asses on the planet

Who's the more foolish? The fool, or the fool who quotes him?

- Obi Wan Nutildah

Um, um, um......

The fool is the more foolish?....



Hahahaha...




I am not falling for your reverse psychological attempt at a trap, and I will quote whomever I like.   Tongue Tongue Tongue


Roach knows about almost every fucking topic in the world, even though he has demonstrated that he is one of the dumbest asses on the planet

Who's the more foolish? The fool, or the fool who quotes him?

- Obi Wan Nutildah

But But, JJG was being nice, white knighting along with you  Kiss

I don't recall every white knighting anyone.  You mean that if I say something nice about roach then that is white-knighting?  my comment about roach was a kind of sarcasm, so that would not be white knighting, right?  You might have a misunderstanding of white-knighting mic, unless I am just confused about the reference.


I've also been guilty of engaging with roach, but that was more like a limited experiment, whereas JJG seems to do it on the regs.

The quoting of roach is all relative.. and discretionary, too.  I stick to my earlier position to exercise discretion as I see fit, and to not fall into any attempts at reverse psychology traps.     Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
13056  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 11:37:27 PM
Segwit and LN and Schnorr are not BitCoin, for a very good reason.

You miss the real point.  Money is supposed to be a constant and unchanging.  Things like the noble metals (physical silver and gold) resist entropy.  Bitcoin FACILITATES entropy.  It's the #1 worst form of 'money' ever created.  If something starts out as some completely arbitrary abomination and randomly transforms into some other new, completely arbitrary abomination, it's obviously not fungible or money.

"Fungible" does not mean tumbling coins in some Albanian mixer to try and obfuscate outputs, it means the object has actual, inherent properties that don't mutate at random.  Fungibility is a requirement of money and no imaginary, digital shitcoin has it.  Physical metals are money and digital shitcoins are scam hoaxes pretending to have the traits of metals when they don't.

True, but it is just implicit. Bitcoin cannot be changed after Satoshi left. It is fraud to do so and keep the name.

You (hv_) are surely making up arbitrary rules in order to attempt to create a definition of bitcoin that could possibly cause some bullshit cultist shitcoin bitcoin attack vector to claim to be bitcoin... What a bunch of nonsense.  If you understand the concept of various network effects, then you might begin to understand that bitcoin has seven market affects going in its favor, and bcash variants hardly mark a dent in any of the network effects,  unless there were a network effect for a prolific ability to spread phoney baloney, then perhaps one of your bcashes would prevail in that (even while there is no such legitimate network effect that gives credibility to a project merely for an ability to spread phoney baloney... ... helrow?).

Biggest shit was Segshit, and we had the biggest drop of btc in market share with that.

As if you are making any kind of meaningful assessment of importance and the power of BIG daddy bitcoin.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


Hope we have biggest learning curve about money now.

You can hope all that you like, and that is not going to get you anywhere without meaningful network effects.

True Bitcoin is better than any PM though

Well yeah.. bitcoin is an improvement upon all the PMs including gold and silver which are the most touted of the PMs for having some kind of store of value and/or currency effect, and of course, bitcoin beats both of them on those grounds.
13057  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussionthe on: October 12, 2019, 11:26:54 PM
  BCH lost a long time ago, just as BSV lost the battle to be the real Bitcoin Cash.

They are both variants of bcash, and who cares about details? including if their is any meaning to whether one or another of them might be the real bcash.. who cares?
13058  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 11:22:00 PM
Trading disclosure, because I feel sooo lovey-dovey when I think of JJG.

Don't feel like that.  Gosh.  I am blushing.

In other words, try to exercise some emotional control within these here interwebs (aka tubes).

The bloody weekend is not materializing. If anything, the short (equal to the long atm) is a losing bit now. I wish I could cash out part of one leg and rebuild it closer to the center (lower for the long, higher for the short). Which leg? My preference and rational expectation gravitate towards the short because reasons; one being I prefer to be long in general, another being that "down before up" is sexier than "up before down". Of course, I do my best not to let my hopes and preferences hinder my rational gameplay.

Sounds good, to the extent that it makes any sense.  The part about attempting to structure your outstanding orders in such a way that causes you to feel largely emotionally neutral about bitcoin's short-term price direction resonates with me the most. Wink   

TL;DR Still more wait and see. Nothing to see here, gentlemen, move on please.

Sometimes tweaks can feel boring, but from time to time, tweaking tends to be a prudent and preferable practice.
13059  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussionthe on: October 12, 2019, 11:09:27 PM
[edited out]
If one of the other Bitcoins does indeed capture more market cap than BTC in the future, will you concede that that other fork will indeed be Bitcoin?

You cannot really believe that "the real bitcoin" is based on market cap, can you? 

How long would such pumpening of the shitcoin price would be needed in terms of sustainability in your perverted conceptualization of what is "the real bitcoin", jbreher?
13060  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 12, 2019, 07:29:44 PM
I am not asserting that you are NOT telling the truth, but it does seem a bit strange for any of us BTC HODLers to NOT attribute a decent amount of significance to the surprising dynamics of the April 1 to June 27 period.
I was trading in that period, but only long positions. Unfortunately I don't have trace of the details. As I said earlier, my shorts only began with the latest bear market in 2018. Originally it was meant as a hedge.


Quote
You know I had been thinking that bitcoin's doubling in late 2015 was quite amazing, and it took place from about October 15 to November 5, but the rise was so goddamned gradual until the decisive break above $320 that brought BTC's prices up to $504 from November 1 to November 4.
Before 2016 I wasn't trading at all.

I know that you are probably starting to suspect that I am either stalking you or becoming a pest, but the relevant period for this particular line of "interrogations" is April 1, 2019 to June 27, 2019.. our most recent exponential BTC price run up.. and clearly you had been in the BTC shorting practice already, after having had gotten a decent amount of experience under your belt during our somewhat deep and painful bearish period of 2018.

Yes, a bit of a pest indeed.  Tongue

Quote
And, also this 2019 BTC price run up would have been a BIG one to actually challenge any ongoing BTC shorting strategy.  That is if you would have kept your BTC shorting strategy as ongoing and it seems like you are saying that you weren't, even though there would not have seemed to have been any reason (except in retrospect) to actually NOT expect a significant and meaningful correction of 30% or more.. which is quite common in BTClandia.. but did not really seem to happen during this 2019 BTC price run up.

You made me take a look at my transfer history. I did well in the 2019 Spring Bull. And yes, in the Spring Bull I've been running all three basic strategies (one at a time), with the one-legged long less frequent than the two-legged balanced, more price agnostic approaches that tickle your curiosity. Maybe the surplus transfers (profit accumulation) were a bit less frequent transfers, OK. In retrospect, I could have done better by simply longing and waiting, hindsight 20/20 and all that. But as long as the bull run has pullbacks (and that one had quite a few IIRC), a bit of short scalping on the side doesn't hurt. More than anything, it's a safety net if things go astray. Otherwise, it's an encumbrance. No free lunch, of course, but knowing how whimsy and wanton she is, I prefer to err on the side of caution.

Caution is the reason most of my shorts have stops before the disaster line. When I'm feeling unsure, and she smells like she's raising her head, I can tighten the stop and let the short go, at a loss. The same goes for the other leg, although I tend to cling to my longs  with more pride. I've been swallowing small losses on both sides recently, including April-June 2019, and I did post about that at the time. Maybe you could go and dig out those posts. That would also help me to reconstruct past history.

Quote
I was just using those older dates of late 2015 as a relative comparison of the magnanimity of this particular 3.5x BTC price rise (with hardly any significant price corrections of 10% or more within that decently extended 3 month period).
Ah, now I see.

I occasionally post "trading disclosures", as I call them. Since I don't have an all-encompassing rule book (and I probably never will), the best way to figure out how things are going is keep an eye on those disclosures.

That's the spirit, d_eddie!!!!   I was not trying to bust your balls over anything, especially in terms of some of the Opsec issues or even the potential "trade secret" problems that could come from too many "trading disclosures;"  however, it seems to be a nice thing to hear some of the particulars regarding how a comparative (and even seeming to be largely sensible) trading strategy is playing out.  

In the real world, we all likely make mistakes here and there, even including our attempts to real world implement our own trading strategies, and yeah, perhaps once in a while we will also become quite lucky or unlucky too, and attempting to learn from that (if possible) is something that I enjoy to share within this thread - to the extent that there is a willing participant, such as yourself... and I surely don't want to encourage anyone to either give up opsec or even to disclose any kinds of trading strategy secrets that might cause too much of a following to such strategy and then screw up the results - yet frequently talking about trading strategies after they have been deployed should be less of a risk of the copy cat problem.. and sure if you want to refer to some kind of practice that you do in kind of an obscure way, that might be understandable too if you are trying to retain it as a kind of possible personal "trade secret" advantage that you believe that you might have.

By the way, you are quite unlikely to get me attempting to even employ your various strategies, even if they might be helpful for me (and others) to attempt to understand.  I appreciate your various attempts and even creativity in explaining them, from time to time, even though I frequently sigh some relief (when I read them) that I am NOT attempting to employ them (even if there may be considerable market move times that you could well likely be stacking decently more sats than me).  
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