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13141  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Do you rely on the odds when placing bets? on: January 23, 2021, 11:59:21 PM

remember, not all odds from the bookies are right. there are certain factors that are out of their control. it is also in your best interest if you know very well the sport as well as the players. but yes, in some instances the odds will give you idea about their perception towards that game. and now, it is up to you how to look for those points that matter for the game, that will help in choosing the best odds.

In the long run, it doesn't matter how often bookmakers make mistakes - they offer disadvantageous odds in terms of betting on both outcomes anyway. Therefore, given the randomness of each individual result over a long distance, they will outperform any specialist who understands the game better than them.
13142  Economy / Speculation / Re: Your price expectations for 2021 on: January 23, 2021, 11:42:45 PM
At least 50k. That is what I am expecting. I do not think that it would be anything different for a while, it should be definitely profitable for all of us as you might expect. I mean why do people talk about a crash I will never know, just because it dropped for a while way before years ago doesn't mean that it has to do that all the time.

I believe we are going to be above 50k and stay above 50k for most of 2021, that is what I believe (I said most because we are not above it now, after we reach that we probably won't go down). So long story short we are going to be pretty awesome this year and that is what I am betting on, if we are not that great that would be something unexpected for me and I would be very upset but at the very least that would mean bitcoin will be cheaper for me to buy and I will end up buying it and drop my averages a ton.

To stay above 50 thousand for a long time, bitcoin must grow to at least 80-100 to begin with. I highly doubt this will happen this year. I will quickly believe that volatility in the 10k-30k range awaits us than a stable price above 50k. Let me remind you that at a price above 50k, the income (and expenses of the miners) will exceed their maximum indicators before the halving.
13143  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Another insane win!! $ 1B mega million jackpot on: January 23, 2021, 11:16:16 PM
In the last few weeks Americans have been very lucky in the lottery, this time there is a man who won $ 1 billion dollars from the mega million lotteries.  btw, I have tried playing mega billions several times at (cut this part) but never had any luck.  for unclear reasons, the man's identity is still a secret.  

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The winner's identity has not been revealed, but, per state lottery rules, they must come forward to claim their winnings.

Quote
The winner will have two options to collect the record prize, the lottery said in a statement: "The first is an escalating annuity that offers an initial payment, then annual payments for 29 years. The player also may select a one-time cash payment of about $739 million. If a player selects the cash option, they will receive about $530 million after tax withholdings."

A huge payoff that completely changes the life of both the average person and the millionaire, just WOW!
I wonder if anyone agreed to receive annual payments instead of taking the winnings immediately, even if they paid taxes? It seems to me that it is best to completely manage your money yourself.
13144  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Toronto women win jackpot lottery on: January 23, 2021, 10:59:59 PM
quite surprised to hear the amount she won was $60 million.  in my country, this kind of money is enough to buy hundreds of mansions.  in the midst of this "PANDEMIC", their win is a great gift, but what amazed me was that they (her and her husband) always playing the same numbers for 20 years.

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After playing the same lottery numbers for 20 years that came to her husband in a dream, a 57-year-old Toronto woman is $60 million richer.

Do any of you play the same trick as their (playing the same number always)??


https://www.cp24.com/news/toronto-woman-says-winning-numbers-for-60m-lotto-max-jackpot-came-to-husband-in-a-dream-1.5271897
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/toronto-woman-wins-60-million-lotto-max-jackpot-with-numbers-husband-dreamt-of-20-years-ago-1.5271865

I have not read the entire thread, but I'm sure many have already written that:
1.) The accumulated investment for such a period would have a similar effect.
2.) Investing in bitcoin from the early stages of launch would have yielded a lot more money  Grin
13145  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Tyson Fury vs. Anthony Joshua on: January 23, 2021, 10:51:52 PM
I was surprised when I first saw the odds and the bet made available already.
IMO, I think Anthony Joshua is underrated in the odds provided by the bookers may be because of his new fighting style ever since he learns from his loss to Ruiz or there's something more to it

In fact, this is nothing new - he is not a favorite and the skew of the odds is always in favor of the favorite. If you think that the bookmakers made a mistake in setting the odds, then it makes sense to bet on AJ. Personally, in my opinion, the bookmakers were not mistaken, the usual odds in the favorite-challenger pair.
13146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin can hit $50k? on: January 23, 2021, 10:36:17 PM
Bitcoin prices can hit up to $ 50K. But not anytime soon. Maybe after we cross the bear market and the price will bounce back up. and will likely exceed 50K. I don't know when that happened. But for sure Bitcoin will continue to increase in value as time goes by and more and more large companies are adopting bitcoin.

Despite the relatively large correction, the formal bear market has not yet started. Consolidation may well take place now and growth may continue after a while. To speak of a bear market, we must be in a downward phase for much more than a couple of weeks.
13147  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alert: Get ready to deal with FUDS about Bitcoin on: January 23, 2021, 10:27:20 PM
We cannot stop individual from selling their coins if they want to,and besides selling is part of the market I don't believe people will dump their Bitcoin at a loss just because of FUDS it's already ten years we all know that FUDS don't work anymore, and people who created FUDS cannot sustain it, I just let them FUDS because it will not harm the market anymore, investors have matured to still believe, if there are still people believing, it's there loss.

If we take into account the presence of margin trading (and its wide distribution), then I would say that FUD works. You must agree that the fear of losing everything when the price moves 20-25 percent in a bad direction for the trader makes him close the position even at an unfavorable price.
13148  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alert: Get ready to deal with FUDS about Bitcoin on: January 22, 2021, 11:52:26 PM
Everyone, please don't panic sell by losing your capital as this forum will be flooded with FUDS since the value of Bitcoin has dropped to $30k which will lead so many people to post negative article against bitcoin which we have come across in the past. Just ensure don't cashout in hurry and rather do a proper analysis to avoid any possible loss as it's bit difficult to control emotions when we see numerous negative posts predicting a downfall.

Strange advice) Do you think that experienced crypto enthusiasts do not know how to behave? Or do you think that those traders who are trying to capitalize on the fall for ideological reasons will abandon their strategies and stop short trading? This advice is good for beginners and only if they can hodl for several years.
13149  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin can hit $50k? on: January 22, 2021, 11:45:21 PM
People talked about 50k so much that I am shocked it hasn't reached that point already. I have been expecting bitcoin to reach to a level where it would be at least a bit closer. It is not going to be anything easy, obviously it is going to take a long time, but I feel like it is going to end up happening one day or another.

I was just assuming it to be quicker because everybody talks about it, like literally purely talks about bitcoin being 50k over and over and over again for some reason and that would take us there for sure. In the end it didn't so far, but that doesn't mean it won't neither, it definitely will take us there eventually, we are just waiting our time. Also we have to realize, we have increase FOUR TIMES the price we were, so that is quadruple profit, and right now all we need is like 25% or so increase, which should be a lot easier.

At this level of capitalization, it is not the opinion of the people that is decisive, but the capital flows. I believe that we should be happy with the levels that have been achieved. Perhaps we will not see them soon (although maybe they will be surpassed quickly, who knows).
13150  Economy / Speculation / Re: I doubt Bitcoin will dip below 20k again on: January 22, 2021, 11:31:19 PM
Unfortunately, if the influence of large companies exists, it is only in terms of speculation. In the past year, I have not heard any fundamental news about the use of bitcoin. If the ongoing growth was accompanied by the development of bitcoin as a payment system, it would be great.
While there has not been any fundamental change in the way bitcoin functions and as such we should not see any change in its price because of it, there has in fact been a fundamental change in the way people feel about the economy, because of this pandemic people have realized that governments can do whatever they want with the economy and they are getting worried that they have a lot of power and that they are abusing it, and as such they are looking for ways to protect themselves from this and many have found in bitcoin a solution to their problems.

On the one hand, you are right and it is stupid to deny the influence of the monetary policy of governments on the price of all assets, but on the other hand, there are negative aspects in such an explanation: if this whole situation had not happened, it turns out that people would still not be interested in bitcoin?
13151  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can BTC go down to <$5k again now? on: January 22, 2021, 11:26:30 PM
<...>
I wonder if they foresaw such a rollback and what their actions will be. It would be wise to keep buying now - it would quickly return the market to growth and allow them to build up their capital, but it is not known how much liquidity they have to act this way.

Just remember Grayscale has no discretionality on their buying: they just react to the money inflows from their investors. They transform the inflows (cash or BTC be it) into GBTC shares.

Exactly! I completely forgot about this moment. In fact, they don't care what happens to the asset. I read the analysis of the work of their service and if I understood correctly then over time, regardless of how the price of the asset changes, all bitcoins will go to this company. Very tricky business)
13152  Economy / Speculation / Re: to sell or buy BTC? on: January 22, 2021, 11:23:24 PM
we are in 2018 again (after the 2017 ath).
 this is the most difficult trading window available: if you are here for the long run then don't be worried but if you can't keep up with some franticvolatility, refrain from buying and selling.

If you understand the moment correctly and now there really will be a repeat of 2018, then this is not as bad as it might seem at first glance. Now there are many opportunities for margin trading, so even on the fall, you can make very good money. With some luck on the fall of the asset, you can earn even more than on the growth.
13153  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling as a profession: there's people who live out of gambling? on: January 21, 2021, 09:58:13 PM
I gotta frank with you, AFAIK, the bigger odds of winning does not exist in gambling, the best chance you have is 50/50 chance, that is considering that the game you are playing has no house edge, like poker maybe, and you can pursue that to be a professional gambler.

However, professional gambler does not automatically mean successful gambler, it's still determine but it's outcome.

Just simple example, if you run a business, you can either be profitable or not. ( only possibilities)

There is no house edge in poker, but there is rake. And there is not much difference for the player, since in fact it affects the game in the same way. If two poker players play for a very long time and cannot identify winners, then gradually all their money will go to the casino.
13154  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The gambler who manages to beat the casino on: January 21, 2021, 09:54:19 PM
Don't get me wrong though.

Both stealing and cheating are a crime and yeah they are the same at that point but pointing out cheating the casino and stealing the bank has a huge difference. But yeah, they are both crime and crime is really punishable by law. But I should add here, as stealing the bank is a bold move as cheating the casino won't be that easy to notice.

In fact, the issue of cheating is not so simple and the same actions by different parties to the transaction are considered differently by this parties. For example, the casino believes that any use of casino errors (in the code or the physical execution of the slot machine) is cheating, while the player believes that the use of errors is normal, since the responsibility for their occurrence lies with the casino.
13155  Economy / Speculation / Re: When The Inevitable Happens With The Dump - What Will Bitcoin Be Worth? on: January 21, 2021, 09:44:12 PM
History repeats itself and dropping more than 80% is very possible. This is why we should know how the market moves and find the right time to buy and to sell our assets. I remember those who are new to crypto in the year 2017 who get caught by the crash, I hope that if they are still into crypto right now they know what to do when the correction comes.

Theoretically, all people know what to do on a correction (although it is quite difficult to distinguish between a correction and a trend change), the only question is the availability of free money. Life is such that most people do not have free money, and using credit money in the crypto market is super unreliable.
13156  Economy / Speculation / Re: to sell or buy BTC? on: January 21, 2021, 09:26:33 PM
It depends on what price when you buy bitcoin? But if you’ve made a lot of profit, you’d better have sold your bitcoin by then. Because now the bitcoin
price has dropped at $36.xxx. but if you want to invest longer to get the highest price it is also very good. Because bitcoin will always have a new price
on each increase. It’s you who decides.

Obviously, if you know that one of the two assets will grow faster than the other, then you need to invest in it. But how many of these assets do you know when paired with bitcoin? Hardly anyone foresaw such a rapid growth of Tesla or some other relatively new companies, in this sense bitcoin is much more easily predictable over long distances.
13157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can BTC go down to <$5k again now? on: January 21, 2021, 09:12:32 PM
grayscale just bought 16k BTC in a single day. that's 18x the mined supply, so they are just eating up all available market supply! i'll be amazed if sellers can take this market below $30k again given the size of these inflows from institutions.

On January 18 they added 16,244 BTC to their fund!



More than 600,000,000 inflows on a single day.
Highest BTC inflow ever.
Highest USD inflow ever.

I wonder if they foresaw such a rollback and what their actions will be. It would be wise to keep buying now - it would quickly return the market to growth and allow them to build up their capital, but it is not known how much liquidity they have to act this way.
13158  Economy / Speculation / Re: $80k within 6 weeks, new ATH October 2021 on: January 21, 2021, 09:08:03 PM
Definitely not this month, when it clearly has seen a lot of people take profit above $40k and wanting to buy the dip again below 35k. Speculators looking at 100k? Yeah, sounds possible, but they shouldn't be expecting it any time soon, I would say not even this year, because there are many, many stops along the way.

The fact that many investors take profit is good, it is bad that with such a deep pullback, many investors appear who are at a loss. Moreover, some of them will be forced to fix it, since they initially entered for a short period and expected rapid growth. As for traders, I don't feel sorry for them  Grin
13159  Economy / Speculation / Re: $80k within 6 weeks, new ATH October 2021 on: January 18, 2021, 11:32:55 PM
I think we've lost the momentum for this moment.   It is still positive just today rising on volume above short term measures but Im not sure the pressure is still there, maybe it can regain it later for this kind of target.   Im thinking multiple years for the duration of the move not all at once in these months or in perfect sequence and just one direction.

Yes, such growth without serious rollback periods or +- stable prices is extremely unlikely. Bitcoin already has a huge capitalization, therefore, if such movements take place, then smoothly and with inevitable periods of correction, since bitcoin is already part of the world economy, and crises in it occur regularly.
13160  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can BTC go down to <$5k again now? on: January 18, 2021, 10:24:13 PM
I am sure there is a double edged sword for big companies to end up selling. First of all if they sell a lot, they will drop the price of bitcoin, however if they drop the price of bitcoin they could once again use all their money to buy it back and both increase the price and also have more of bitcoins once again. So long story short it is a great idea for companies to sell their coins here and there time to time to drop the price of bitcoin in order to accumulate even more of it later on without spending extra money.

However I do not think that they would sell their coins and get out that easily, a lot of these wall street type of companies have probably thousands of things they invest into and they keep some of them for decades and decades long because as long as you hold a successful asset, why would you want to get rid of it as long as you profit from it.

In addition to these obvious manipulations, large players have more opportunities if they have mining power. It is very logical to buy power - thus, even selling bitcoins all the time, you can always restore their amount (at least partially) without looking at the stock speculation.
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