Can BTC go down to <$5k again now?

[sana54210]

I think there's no relation with the past dump on pandemic since many new users came and other shift to use crypto to gain since their outside world job has been close down and when the time of pandemic where lockdown still happening the price of Bitcoin stabilize at good figures. And I agree with you on that we cannot see below $10k since by now bitcoin got strong support and huge adoption.

The big two differences between 2017 and today (or even pandemic and today) is the companies and companies alone. We have two type of companies who will not allow bitcoin to be under 10k, we have some sort of power now that will keep it above. One of them is the sector bigs, coinbase, binance, kucoin and any big company in the crypto world you can think of, business' that are mainly making money from crypto, and they will use their money to buy bitcoin to keep it higher if they have to.

Secondly we have places like grayscale and microstrategy who are not crypto companies but have a lot of money in the crypto world, they will also work hard to get the price of bitcoin higher and will not let it go down. Which means bitcoin may not go higher constantly without ever falling, but it means it will never fall to levels it used to be before.

[1714990161]

1714990161

[1714990161]

1714990161

[Mahdirakib]

As of now, $10k is the new floor, this is where the rally started from, and it's already unlikely that it would crash that far even in a scenario where this bull run is over. $20k looks like a very solid support too. Simply put, something out of ordinary needs to happen to bring Bitcoin to such low prices. Maybe a cold wallet of some major exchange getting hacked and the coins being dumped on the market, or Satoshi's coins waking up.

Agree with you. If the market crash badly, $10k would be the strong support point for bitcion. The price may drop below $20k if such unusual thing happens like you said. I'm ignoring the fact of ‘Satoshi's coins wake up’. Bitcoin price will only go below $5k if institutional investors start to move away from it and all other investors start panic selling. Probably these things won't happen and the chance is pretty low.

[dimonstration]

Any figure may arrive because the market is very volatile, nothing is impossible, now the fact that it arrives so low right now I do not see it feasible, because there are many investors protecting their positions, in fact, I think it may be more reliable that it reaches the new ATH.

This institutional companies will not sell their investments this fast, they will sure wait for other investors to get in before they will do selling to take some profits even Pandemic or there is another variant btc been the new platform of investors since stocks were greatly affected by the economy. We will need to be patient with our investment now that many companies might join also.

[magneto]

Given 'institutional' investors who are more prone to hold through dips and ignore the paper loss; is it actually possible for BTC to drop to sub $5k ever again now?

There was a really good diagram showing how the composition of BTC holdings has changed over the years, and it shows a marked shift away from big portfolios into lots of smaller wallets; i.e retail investors.

I get that a few bigger whales might hold and support certain prices, but surely the collective holding of retail investors would be enough to move the dial substantially?

March 20 was the last time it was at around that level and it hasn't gone to that since.

What was fundamentally different about that period of time to what it is now that would stop us returning to that price point? I'd appreciate any reliable information sources to back up any comments?

I actually think that it is entirely possible, and possibly even likely that we will see 5k at some stage in the future.

Even with institutional investors, there are no guarantees as to how low the prices will go when all of the market is panic selling. And with currencies, there is no universally agreed-upon valuation model that would anchor people's expectations, so prices will be very erratic.

But I do think that intrinsically, with the current level of adoption and institutional interest in BTC as a hedge against the fiat economy as well as a long term store of value, BTC is worth much more than $5k. So if a dip of this proportion ever comes up, and market fundamentals stays relatively the same, it would be a clear buy signal.

[bvoriue]

The increase in the price of Bitcoin this year was different from 2017 where at that time, people bought Bitcoin without looking at Bitcoin fundamentals. By now, people are seeing Bitcoin fundamentals which are proving to be a safe haven asset and to be a good inflation hedge.
Moreover, buying Bitcoin is now as easy as PayPal which provides Bitcoin payment features.
These are just a few reasons why Bitcoin will still increase in 2021. I think this year Bitcoin will not drop to $5000 again

[KTChampions]

Any figure may arrive because the market is very volatile, nothing is impossible, now the fact that it arrives so low right now I do not see it feasible, because there are many investors protecting their positions, in fact, I think it may be more reliable that it reaches the new ATH.

This institutional companies will not sell their investments this fast, they will sure wait for other investors to get in before they will do selling to take some profits even Pandemic or there is another variant btc been the new platform of investors since stocks were greatly affected by the economy. We will need to be patient with our investment now that many companies might join also.

I think the opposite is true. Institutional investors, as the most powerful players on the market, sell assets in the last phase of growth (since it is very difficult to sell during a fall and each sale reduces the price for the subsequent one) and very often they sell an asset to small investors who ultimately receive the lion's share of losses. In addition, after they have basically exited the asset, they are interested in pushing the price as deep as possible in order to enter it again at good levels.

[JimboToronto]

Don't confuse institutional investors with retail stock market gamblers. They're more like venture capitalists.

They don't buy to try to make a quick buck by selling and buying back. They buy to get in before the s-curve of adoption goes vertical and hold for the long run.

[Fredomago]

The increase in the price of Bitcoin this year was different from 2017 where at that time, people bought Bitcoin without looking at Bitcoin fundamentals.

That's why it pulls back real quick since there's only few real usages that may gather interest coming from institutional investors and businesses. The dumped quickly brings the bear as weak holders accepts that they've been mislead and cry out calling this venue as scam investment.

By now, people are seeing Bitcoin fundamentals which are proving to be a safe haven asset and to be a good inflation hedge.

People find this place as good investment tools while staying at home due to pandemic, they've got more time to research and analyze the potentials.

Moreover, buying Bitcoin is now as easy as PayPal which provides Bitcoin payment features.
These are just a few reasons why Bitcoin will still increase in 2021. I think this year Bitcoin will not drop to $5000 again

With Paypal, more people gathered interest to go deeper before jumping in and invest their money.

[darewaller]

I am sure there is a double edged sword for big companies to end up selling. First of all if they sell a lot, they will drop the price of bitcoin, however if they drop the price of bitcoin they could once again use all their money to buy it back and both increase the price and also have more of bitcoins once again. So long story short it is a great idea for companies to sell their coins here and there time to time to drop the price of bitcoin in order to accumulate even more of it later on without spending extra money.

However I do not think that they would sell their coins and get out that easily, a lot of these wall street type of companies have probably thousands of things they invest into and they keep some of them for decades and decades long because as long as you hold a successful asset, why would you want to get rid of it as long as you profit from it.

[Fakhrulenclix]

I don't know how deep Bitcoin will go down after pump, but go down to under $5K is impossible, this is not realistic price of Bitcoin..

Even with so many FUD, the real Holder of Bitcoin is so many and they trust the mechanisms of Bitcoin rather than FUD, so FUD will become useless. Bitcoin is Anti FUD

[Tstar]

$5k again is way too low, I think.

Maybe Bitcoin will bounce between $30k - $40k for a couple of months of something like that. This is more likely development than a huge dip to $5k.

[teosanru]

Given 'institutional' investors who are more prone to hold through dips and ignore the paper loss; is it actually possible for BTC to drop to sub $5k ever again now?

There was a really good diagram showing how the composition of BTC holdings has changed over the years, and it shows a marked shift away from big portfolios into lots of smaller wallets; i.e retail investors.

I get that a few bigger whales might hold and support certain prices, but surely the collective holding of retail investors would be enough to move the dial substantially?

March 20 was the last time it was at around that level and it hasn't gone to that since.

What was fundamentally different about that period of time to what it is now that would stop us returning to that price point? I'd appreciate any reliable information sources to back up any comments?

Ideally it should never be $5k reason is that there was such a huge buying around this region of 10k where this pump started that huge money is involved around this region. This include some big investors including FIIs now these people would ensure that they don't sell and let the price go below this point. And even if it goes there is going to be a huge amount of buying below this point which would ensure that it doesn't even lasts for more than an hour below this point. So I think we can rest assure that we are not going below 5k ever again.

[KTChampions]

I am sure there is a double edged sword for big companies to end up selling. First of all if they sell a lot, they will drop the price of bitcoin, however if they drop the price of bitcoin they could once again use all their money to buy it back and both increase the price and also have more of bitcoins once again. So long story short it is a great idea for companies to sell their coins here and there time to time to drop the price of bitcoin in order to accumulate even more of it later on without spending extra money.

However I do not think that they would sell their coins and get out that easily, a lot of these wall street type of companies have probably thousands of things they invest into and they keep some of them for decades and decades long because as long as you hold a successful asset, why would you want to get rid of it as long as you profit from it.

In addition to these obvious manipulations, large players have more opportunities if they have mining power. It is very logical to buy power - thus, even selling bitcoins all the time, you can always restore their amount (at least partially) without looking at the stock speculation.

[STT]

The problem with this 5k scenario barring any other details is the denominator is dollar which we have a vast excess of in the world relative to GDP growth of that nation at least.   By mistake one nations currency has been used to describe alot of the worlds trade which is incorrect because the currency is relating to debt not repayment or asset value, in short this is weakness.   So the question is can BTC be even weaker then something especially negative and unable to repay debts, its possible but we should wonder why the price back tracks to that extent and presumably over so much time.
  It can happen but I think its more of a volatile event and for years people expected BTC to be the protocol that failed in various ways but without bias its as easy to speculate dollar has the flaw.

[ReiMomo]

My conclusion is, bitcoin will not drop below $5k in the market, it seems what happened last bull run, and then it has suddenly dropped almost in the button price. But now, I don't think it will drop too much, there are large investors in institutions that surely also hold bitcoin rather spending it if we have whales trying to dump the market that is a full manipulation.

Bitcoin will not go down beyond $20k this year, look around, bitcoin was talk on social media and news and I think, we're just speculating those impossible to happen.

[AmoreJaz]

My conclusion is, bitcoin will not drop below $5k in the market, it seems what happened last bull run, and then it has suddenly dropped almost in the button price. But now, I don't think it will drop too much, there are large investors in institutions that surely also hold bitcoin rather spending it if we have whales trying to dump the market that is a full manipulation.

Bitcoin will not go down beyond $20k this year, look around, bitcoin was talk on social media and news and I think, we're just speculating those impossible to happen.

i dont think that will happen also. we already surpassed that level. if it will drop hard, maybe 15k+ level. but do you really think, these institutions will not do anything if they bought some of their stash at more than 20k level?
and also, why are we getting this kind of question? are they hoping that someday it will drop down to that level so they can bought their stash? but for sure, if that situation will happen, i dont think they will buy btc, as they will question again - can btc go down to 3k again? 

[Kelvinid]

My conclusion is, bitcoin will not drop below $5k in the market, it seems what happened last bull run, and then it has suddenly dropped almost in the button price. But now, I don't think it will drop too much, there are large investors in institutions that surely also hold bitcoin rather spending it if we have whales trying to dump the market that is a full manipulation.

Bitcoin will not go down beyond $20k this year, look around, bitcoin was talk on social media and news and I think, we're just speculating those impossible to happen.

i dont think that will happen also. we already surpassed that level. if it will drop hard, maybe 15k+ level. but do you really think, these institutions will not do anything if they bought some of their stash at more than 20k level?
and also, why are we getting this kind of question? are they hoping that someday it will drop down to that level so they can bought their stash? but for sure, if that situation will happen, i dont think they will buy btc, as they will question again - can btc go down to 3k again? 

All the possible dumps can be happening, yet, it was just a little chance to make such a dip these days since the accumulating power still strong and these institutional investors are into preparing for the future, therefore, we can expect that they should hold rather than selling.
 

Bitcoin will not go down beyond $20k this year, look around, bitcoin was talk on social media and news and I think, we're just speculating those impossible to happen.

You are right, people got crazy talking about Bitcoin, who got into millionaire's club. But couldn't think that social media also make a reason why the crypto market has a hard fall due to false accusation, irrelevant news feed and makes many holders do the panic selling. And this possible to happen again.

[figmentofmyass]

grayscale just bought 16k BTC in a single day. that's 18x the mined supply, so they are just eating up all available market supply! i'll be amazed if sellers can take this market below $30k again given the size of these inflows from institutions.

On January 18 they added 16,244 BTC to their fund!



More than 600,000,000 inflows on a single day.
Highest BTC inflow ever.
Highest USD inflow ever.

$5k seems like an impossibly distant memory now.

[kotajikikox]

Not Unless there is a more destructive and Phenomenal happens than CORONA VIRUS i don't think that Bitcoin will go down that level again .

Last year is tough for Bitcoin but Never did fell into 5k$ just this Pandemic that make the market shaking wild but do recovers just Months after.
Bitcoin had already proven its capacity and considering that the Blow now is More than what we expected last year , Meaning we can survive another Bad Hit if there comes one again.
and the damage won't be like what we had in the 2020 crash.
also Investors now are Real person and not just random whales that taking the advantage of vulnerability of this market.

[fillippone]

What was fundamentally different about that period of time to what it is now that would stop us returning to that price point? I'd appreciate any reliable information sources to back up any comments?

Just a simple answer: Stock to flow.

After the halving Bitcoin has become a scarcer resource, and, as the above post remined us, institutions have been buying BTC like crazy.

In the past S2F has undervalued BTC a few times (market had an higher valuation than model), with a large multiple. Market has always bome back to model valuations.
On the contrary S2F has rarely overvalued the  market value, and at the most the multiple was 0.5, meaning that model price has never been more than the double of the market price.



Well, now S2F model predicts a 28,000 USD price.
Hence I cannot see BTC going below 14,000 USD.

If you want to know more about stock to flow:
Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity