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141  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Is MtGox the best way to withdraw BTC as USD? on: May 26, 2011, 12:42:11 PM
Mtgox has an AUD bank account now. Maybe that helps you NZ guys?
142  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Lending & Short Selling on: May 25, 2011, 02:46:01 AM
I'm pretty sure Mtgox is working on both option trading and margin trading.
143  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why don`t prices follow difficulty change? on: May 20, 2011, 11:55:17 AM
Price drives difficulty: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3979.0
144  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: A Bubble on: May 20, 2011, 11:48:47 AM
ribuck: Yes I agree. I would delete this post if I could. I was making that chart while distracted and made a mistake which had it look way undervalued which is more interesting than this chart. So I posted about it clearly not being a bubble. But that was wrong so I had to edit the post.
145  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: A Bubble on: May 20, 2011, 01:15:38 AM
Well I think it isn't quite as bad as this chart makes it look since, a) people are willing to hold more value in BTC now and b) I think people just discovering bitcoin at this stage in the game are less likely to join the forum and c) some people are using it as an investment.
146  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Not a bubble on: May 20, 2011, 12:58:35 AM
oops. Sorry I messed up. we are in a massive bubble. I'll fix the chart in a second
147  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Not a bubble on: May 20, 2011, 12:38:58 AM
ok does someone have # of coins in existence by day?
148  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Not a bubble on: May 20, 2011, 12:18:31 AM
Sure I should factor in the number of coins in existence. If I did all the points at the end would be slightly higher.
This isn't forum visitors this is forum accounts.
149  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Public Relations on: May 20, 2011, 12:12:03 AM
unk: Here is my response to the "is it in a bubble?" http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=9021.msg130618#msg130618
150  Economy / Trading Discussion / A Bubble on: May 20, 2011, 12:07:17 AM
[I'd delete this post if I could. It doesn't say much now. I had a post here saying we weren't in a bubble but I had a mistake on my spreadsheet. It now looks like we are. ]

I would argue that BTC price is essentially determined by the number bitcoin users there are. In order to be a bitcoin user you must hold bitcoins. This means each additional bitcoin user creates demand. It is of course hard to determine exactly how many bitcoin users there are so I'll assume it is proportional to the number of forum users. (This isn't exactly true since the number of forum accounts is strictly increasing but the userbase isn't necessarily but I think since it is so new we can ignore this)
Anyway this is a chart of (BTC Price*# of coins)/(# of forum users)




(If someone has another metric to use other than forum membership I'd be glad to plug that in also)
151  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Public Relations on: May 19, 2011, 07:25:15 PM
unk: I don't think it is a bubble. There are just more users now than when it only cost .06 but basically the same number of coins. Don't you expect the price to roughly correlate with the number of users?
The exact same thing would happen if you somehow managed to start a new chain.
152  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Public Relations on: May 19, 2011, 06:13:43 PM
I agree with Fleembit.

This is what I said in another thread. But is more appropriate here:
Quote
The problem is the way bitcoin is presented. You guys all like it because you are libertarian types. But keep in mind that the vast majority of people in the world aren't. But bitcoin doesn't just appeal to libertarian types. All you need to say to promote it is:
Bitcoin is a free paypal that anyone can use.

Please leave the libertarian, going to replace all other currencies, take over the world stuff out of it. That just turns people off.
The only important thing for people to know is that it is better than what people use now for online payments.
People had other ideas but you get the point. Something short and simple that people can understand. Something that let's them clearly see why they should use it regardless of their ideology.

Gavin: I think your portrayal of it above is definitely better than the forums. I still think it should be toned down.  I feel like "revolutionizing the financial system" is still too up in people's mix.

I understand most people want that to happen but a) it isn't realistic b) it scares people c) it antagonizes people that are powerful
My point is if you want bitcoin to be as big as it can be and have the biggest chance of "replacing banks" you should downplay this hope. Let them come to you. There is no point in yelling this is a revolution. Just let the revolution quietly happen.

Also bitcoin can definitely succeed without doing all this revolution.  It is already useful and used.
153  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Slashdotted (again) on: May 17, 2011, 01:16:22 PM
Quote
Bitcoin is a peer to peer protocol used to exchange scarce cryptographic tokens called bitcoins, which can be used as money.

But people don't care how things work. They just want them to work. (This is still lightyears better than mentioning how it will take out banks though)

Quote
Bitcoins are super-convenient barter tokens for the internet

This is better since it speaks more to function.

But I still think saying how it is an improvement over something people are already familiar with (like paypal) is better. Even if the comparison isn't the complete story. The above quote will make most people think, "What do I need barter tokens for?"
154  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Slashdotted (again) on: May 16, 2011, 07:58:13 PM
The problem is the way bitcoin is presented. You guys all like it because you are libertarian types. But keep in mind that the vast majority of people in the world aren't. But bitcoin doesn't just appeal to libertarian types. All you need to say to promote it is:
Bitcoin is a free paypal that anyone can use.

Please leave the libertarian, going to replace all other currencies, take over the world stuff out of it. That just turns people off.
The only important thing for people to know is that it is better than what people use now for online payments.
155  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Withdrawing bitcoins from Mt.Gox on: May 15, 2011, 03:08:27 AM
If you deposited the coins there and didn't buy them you should be able to take them all out at once. email mtgox.
156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: May 13, 2011, 08:49:19 PM
The price dropped before the ddos. It was unchanged during the ddos.
157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: May 13, 2011, 03:37:23 PM
> you try and sell 100000 coins and the last 90k or so are essentially worthless

 Not true. The daily volume is around 30k so just keep selling yours over 3 or 4 days for the lowest ask. The price will drop a little but not to nothing. I'm sure you could drop 100k BTC for an average of $5 BTC over the course of a few days.

158  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis on: May 13, 2011, 03:17:44 PM
I can't believe one of these guys with 100k+ coins (which there are several I'm sure) hasn't decided "you know what I could use half a million dollars." and cash out. The market is so thin that only one can do it. So after that the price will smacked way the hell back down. It is like a game of chicken to see who will bolt first.
159  Economy / Marketplace / Re: [BETA] MTGox websocket API, testers wanted on: May 12, 2011, 10:14:12 PM
I think it doesn't send every update to the order book. It seems like some random ones get dropped.
160  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: live now - Gavin on twist on: May 12, 2011, 01:38:18 PM
It isn't impossible at all. It is just expensive. You would have to get VC money. You basically need to do what dwolla, paypal, paysimple, etc etc all do.
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