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14021  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 09:34:53 PM
Everyone and their mother's mother heard about bitcoin by now, so this is curious.

You are likely WRONG about your speculation that everyone knows about bitcoin.  If everyone knows about bitcoin we would have more than1% world-wide adoption.

Everyone has heard of Enron but not everyone owns Enron stock.

Yes.. I recognize the point that you could be making, possibly, to the extent that you are capable of making any kind of half-way decent point from time to time in a random kind of way.   Wink Wink

So, yeah, part of my point is that if you really learn about the bitcoin matter beyond superficials and beyond the acceptance of the misinformation of PM pumpers, like yourself, the vast majority of peeps should come to a recognition that if bitcoin is even half of what it claims to be, then bitcoin is a crazy-ass asymmetrical bet that is much beyond the investment opportunities that historically had been available to regular people.

So, normies do not have to go apeshit into BTC, but instead taking at least a 1% investment while spending sometime trying to better understand bitcoin.

It seems that I already made those kinds of points already, but the essence of the reality of the matter is that an overwhelming majority of people do not really know bitcoin beyond having had heard the name, so anyone making suggestions, including your butt buddy Traxo, that everyone knows about bitcoin is engaging in a kind of exaggeration that is not even close to our actual facts on the ground situation.

Yeah, those of us in this thread are in a bit of an echo chamber on this thread with a decently informed group of people, but if we really step into the real world and really attempt to measure their knowledge about bitcoin, those who have decent bitcoin knowledge are generally far between... and those with decent knowledge have decent odds of at least owning a bit of bitcoin, rather than adopting a dumbass and ultimately wrong point of view that PMs are superior to bitcoin.. In that regard, to the extent that you are being genuine with us (and you are dumb enough) about not owning bitcoin, you (roach and traxo) are a kind of unicorn rather than the "majority" that you wish to be.    Tongue Tongue Tongue


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
14022  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 07:49:55 PM
In WO there are 2 groups:

WO stronghats and weakhands. Cheesy

Where do you think to put me?

Gonna put you in the corner with Mayor.

O.k... this might work to get mayor to come out.

This is how to do it:  Both of you count to 100 before you come out, and come out together.   Wink Wink


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
14023  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 07:46:42 PM
Today I had a class (I teach electronics as a side activity to my main job). We were talking about digital stuff, gates, etc. One thing led to another and we ended up talking about Bitcoin. I felt like Andreas Antonopoulos on stage...

Some statistics:

-- Most students hadn't even heard about Bitcoin, and those few who had were all males, no females knew anything about it. However, the females were very interested, especially when they realised it can be very profitable.

Everyone and their mother's mother heard about bitcoin by now, so this is curious.
"heard about" or "know about"?
Given that it was electronics class, I suppose these guys were not Amish?  
How old were they anyway, and where did you find them?

You are likely WRONG about your speculation that everyone knows about bitcoin.

If everyone knows about bitcoin we would have more than1% world-wide adoption.

Furthermore there is a lot of misinformation out there which would explain why most people, even those who heard the word bitcoin, have almost no clue about what bitcoin is.. even people who invest in bitcoin.  By the way, people who invest in bitcoin would have a higher chance to know what bitcoin is because they are at least attempting to actively engage with the topic, so gives them additional motivation to learn more about what the fuck bitcoin might be.
14024  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 07:40:03 PM
I'm having a hard time watching this only because I broke my glasses.  Does anyone know the best way to measure pupillary distance?  It's not on my prescription!

Better to use two people for this, but you can put on a pair of glasses, and then use a marker to mark exactly where the pupils are then  measure how far apart the marks are.

You can also do it in a mirror but a bit easier (and more accurate) to have a second person line them up.  Of course, Pupilary distance is referred to in millemeters.. so 64 millimeters is common... also more accurate to measure each one separately if your eyes are really screwed up then better to have a professional fit your glasses so that everything is in the right spot and more comfort on your eyes.  Measuring separately would be from the center of the nose bridge to each of the pupils, so in my above example they would be 32  each if you happen to be exactly symmetrical, which frequently there is a bit of a difference between each side... possibly not enough to matter.
14025  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 07:34:30 PM
LOL, I was right... I still don't see an insane bull run without a massive dump afterwards.

Now it can easily point the 8k price or somewhere around.

Why do you seem to feel some kind of need to be right?  Are you needy?  You think anyone here is smarter than the others, or more of a sorcerer? 

In these parts, we could give two shit about self-proclaimed sorcerers with little track record and even little context behind assertions of the obvious.

Almost anyone could have told you that the run from $10k to $13,880 was a bit much.. and a correction was due...

Now, the devil is in the details regarding how this will play out in the shorter term.. next few days... and whether the next few months will also be significantly by this recent pause in the UP.
14026  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 06:24:48 PM
Usually check in here hoping to find temperate responses (in either direction), but the WO's are feeling skittish today?  Hm.

Don't judge all of us by the girlish screams of a few.   Tongue Tongue
14027  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 06:21:19 PM
Buy before September 30, 2019.

Buy now, buy often.

Oh gawd!!!!!  Not you again with your random dates in an attempt to be Nostradamus sorcerer.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes



Hey.. .where did you get my reaction pic?

I could wager that you are the blonde on the right?

You are really distracted at a drop of a hat.  

Why don't you go on with your attempts at bitcoin price sorcery rather than irrelevant attempts to talk about who I might be.    Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
14028  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 05:58:53 PM
Buy before September 30, 2019.

Buy now, buy often.

Oh gawd!!!!!  Not you again with your random dates in an attempt to be Nostradamus sorcerer.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes



Hey.. .where did you get my reaction pic?
14029  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 05:54:18 PM
Ok.  Two to three month mini-bear market.  

#Bringbackfear

Noice. My FIAT is ready. This time we do it right.  Grin

No offense to 90%+ hodlers. I may join you soon.  Grin

Gambling... good luck..

It is not really the "right" way to do it, but you gonna do what you gonna do..
14030  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 05:29:41 PM
Ok.  Two to three month mini-bear market.  


#Bringbackfear


Edit:  I’m not shorting this but I’m ready for people to have the pants scared off them again

Yep... decent chances of that... .... and I am afraid to say the levels could be in the
$7k to $9k range... during such correction period... perhaps?  Perhaps?  Nothing is a given in these here parts.
14031  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 05:25:31 PM
This was needed. It would be good to hold above 10k though

I agree that it would be good to hold above $10k

But I am afraid that it is not likely to hold above $10k

Furthermore, I will brazenly assert (which seems to be similar to what you are saying) that it is not necessary to hold above $10k (and we still remain on a magnanimous bull run)
14032  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 05:20:39 PM
Buy before September 30, 2019.

Buy now, buy often.

Oh gawd!!!!!  Not you again with your random dates in an attempt to be Nostradamus sorcerer.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
14033  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 05:04:33 PM
So how low do you guys think we'll go?

I don't think it should get much lower from here but maybe we could see a similar pattern of 2016 june

I'm thinking lower $9ks would be reasonable, but bitcoin does not tend to be reasonable.  except when she wants to be, which again seems to be rare.

Could be. The recent parabolic rise looks like it is now ending. It went a lot higher than most expected in such a short time frame. A normal retracement would give a target in the region of 7-9k, leaving the bull case intact. ...could take around 3-4 weeks to get there.  The alternative is increasing volatility and a quick return to new highs.  Whatever happens , a lot of speculators will get burned when the rise ends, and it takes time to flush their left-over effects out of the market.

Still a conjecture until tThe next few days plays out.  are critical.

Fixed that last sentence for you.    Wink
14034  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 09:42:19 AM
So how low do you guys think we'll go?

I don't think it should get much lower from here but maybe we could see a similar pattern of 2016 june

I'm thinking lower $9ks would be reasonable, but bitcoin does not tend to be reasonable.  except when she wants to be, which again seems to be rare.

So how low do you guys think we'll go?

I don't think it should get much lower from here but maybe we could see a similar pattern of 2016 june

Best case scenario: $11k

Medium case scenario: $8k

Worst case scenario: $5.5k

Whoa zah... that sounds worse than I was thinking.
14035  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 09:36:34 AM
This is getting really ugly

$3,122 here we come.

ded


wwwwwweeeeeeeee!!!




lol

If that ever happens I’m pumping every last fiat penny I have in.

I will admit that my current set up causes my buy orders to go down to only about $3,500, which really means that I would be running out of money, and have to do some scrambling to even muster together decent additional cash for prices to go down below $3,500 -  and so another way of phrasing that would be that I would have blown my whole load (or most of it) prior to even getting close to $3,500.

If we are being frank, the truth of the matter would be that at this time if  BTC prices even appeared to be going below $6k (or even getting close to that), then I would be inspired to regroup in order to pee pare my selfie for the possibility that our bottom of $3,122 could be tested again... though I would give it low chances until $5k support is broken then the odds begin to go up quite a bit, in my thinking.  

So, likely if it looks like we are getting close to $6k, I will likely use whatever fiat I have left in my BTC funds to restructure buy orders all the way down to $2k.. .. yet, since we are "still" in the supra $11k territory, there should be hardly any fear for me that we are even going to get close to $6k, right?  That's how I feel right now.. little fear, and nice to have more than a $5k cushion between here and $6k in which I have buy orders staggered all the way down in relatively tight intervals (doing my part here to support the price all the way down).  

So, I am not even close to worried, yet.  I am just glad that we had so much BTC price appreciation over the past months (really starting April 1) that I have so much cash on hand  that I can put to good use to buy BTC, in the event that the price continues to go down.  

Thank you very much to BTC for having had gone up so much.    Kiss Kiss Kiss  More up would be good, too (even preferable), but I can accept that she might not want to go up more, just yet.
14036  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 09:13:50 AM
This is getting really ugly

$3,122 here we come.

ded


wwwwwweeeeeeeee!!!




lol
14037  Economy / Speculation / Re: *Q2-BTC-PRCE PREDICTION-GAME* Q2 LIST GAME on: June 27, 2019, 09:09:50 AM
Too many variables in the universe.

Its like predicting which beach a message in a bottle will wash up.

That's what I'm talking about.    Wink
14038  Economy / Speculation / Re: *Q2-BTC-PRCE PREDICTION-GAME* Q2 LIST GAME on: June 27, 2019, 09:02:09 AM
I mean to learn there is no price expert

hahahahahaha

You really think that was part of the goal?  This is fine.    Wink

I think there was a bit of an expectation that if there is money on the line, then people (guessers) will make a more genuine and serious attempt to be correct, but sure that does not really mean that they are increasing their odds too much and therefore more likely to be correct, but will just try harder.

There would have been no need for a game, if all that is wanted to learn that almost everyone is wrong when they predict.  It is a shot in the dark, like the lottery to some extent.. but we already knew that before the predictions on the first game were placed.  Right?
14039  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 08:50:11 AM
Guys, of course it's not feasible to pump the price without having any drop.

Now I am curious to see whether this pump was a just a bull game or it will stabilize the price to a new low.

This market is crazy!

New low?

You mean below $3,122? 

Are you smoking something?
14040  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 08:43:27 AM
Does anyone besides Tone and Tyler still think we are in a Bear Market?   Kiss

I have been surprised by the power of the recent surge with so much time before the halvening, still think we are due for some serious pull backs in the near future, but surely no one can deny with a straight face that the Bull is upon us.

@JJG, Id like an update on your certainty of the Bull in percent terms kind sir. I remember a while back at a much lower price you stated 51 percent certainty. Hopefully you are in the 90's now Cheesy

More or less I think that you are asking about the odds that the "bottom is in" for this cycle, and that bottom is the $3,122 price from mid-December 2018 (seems so long ago, but of course, not as long as it seems).

So yeah, I believe that the last time that I mentioned anything related to whether the bottom was in, was a couple of weeks ago, when we were still in the sub $9k-ish... and in that context, I was attempting to suggest to 48 that he might want to just pay hairy for the bottom is in prediction, and I think that I suggested that the odds were quite less than 40%.. and maybe even more realistically in the sub 33% arena.

Currently, I would say that we might even be in the sub 20% arena.. and perhaps 25% if we are trying to be charitable to bears.  90% does seem a bit too high of an assignment currently, but we are likely 90% likely to not go below $1k or maybe $2k, but even that could be pushing it a bit to assert that level of certainty towards something that could be within the power of some rich folks, banks and or governments to update unite forces in an attempt to achieve (though again, seemingly unlikely - in the sub 25% and maybe more realistically in the sub 20% - to get any kind of event (or set of events including FUD spreading) that could even bring BTC prices to new lows, currently when there is decently ongoing UP momentum).

Edit:
Furthermore, this out of control baby bull BTC seems to be growing up too damned fast for his own good, and likely needs a bit of a spanking.... but none of us really know how to tame this bad boy... instead he is trampling all over the clowns in the stadium... and seeming to be a wwwwwweeeeeeeeeee bit pissed off about his upbringing.    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  Sucks to be a bullpen clown, these days..... Wwwweeeeeeeeee.

I like your probabilities(optimistic but reasonable), even if I am higher in the 90 percent(optimistic perhaps to a fault) plus range in terms of certainty that the bottom is in. The baby bull has grown faster than foreseen due to the Fed printing so much fiat steroids and infusing them into his food and water supply.

I still expect a major correction back into the 5-7k range and I believe if this happens then the fall will be so large that bears and weak hands will start calling for a new low to materialize before the halving. Even if these prices occur I will be over 90 percent sure imo that the bottom is in. I have more fiat ready to buy such a correction, but as Im over 90 percent net worth invested I don't care if it never happens and we march straight to 100k Cheesy If 3 months pass by without significant correction then I will probably just deploy the fiat and scoop up some more coin regardless of price.


@Central Bankers: We know you read this thread so listen up! You wont get one precious coin from me at sub 50k prices so stop calling my cell and pretending to be Microsoft technicians alerting me to a virus. I know who you are and what you really want Cool

Gosh.. sub $7k would surely be pushing it, so I am not sure why you are even thinking $5k, but hey think what you like.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Even getting down to $7k would be nearing a 50% correction from our current local top which was $13,880, and geez, odds of $7k could not be much better than 50% at this time.

I hate to elaborate too much on a variety of up and down short-term scenarios, because how I play my BTC does not change very much at all based on my expectations of short term cycles..

In regards to BTC, I just behave like a kind of robot by selling small amounts on the way up and buying on the way down (with proceeds from my sales and I might throw in a bit of dollar cost averaging from time to time, too), so yeah if we never go back down, then I just have a bunch of fiat which is not necessarily a bad thing to have - given that only about less than 1% of the world's population even has any kind of investment in BTC, the vast majority of folks out there in the real world will accept fiat for payment for goods and services. 

Not a bad thing to spend a bit of fiat, here and there once you have already decently established the size of your BTC stash to a sufficient level that it is pretty much going to last you for the rest of your life so long as BTC tends towards long term up (which is a kind of long term presumption of mine)... ... and currently, I kind of have $5k as my lower boundary of dire circumstances in terms of BTC hovering at or below $5k for too long.. yeah I am still profitable at $5k, but really I would prefer NOT to hang out there, so I don't want to be spending too much time close to $5k and worse yet to be spending any considerable time below $5k would not be fun at all for me in terms of my expectations of future preference for richie  (like a minimum of at least 5x richie rather than smaller amounts of richie.. which would not be the end of the world, just not preferable)....

So I guess I am spoiled in that regard with my supra $5k expectations for the future of BTC and readiness to move into BTC's future... again hopefully supra $5k from here on out.. even though I know, no guarantees but that is my current minimum expectations (or would it be worse case scenarios?) hope.  Which largely means that if my expectations are NOT too high, then there are almost certain odds that they are going to be met... still I repeat, 75% to 80% odds that the bottom (of $3,122) is in, and we are not having NO lower bottoms than that.
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