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1441  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: August 10, 2023, 02:44:30 PM
It seems to me that bitcoin is going to continue to eat gold's lunch, just as it has done in the past 10 years or more, so on an individual level you likely need to figure out how much to waste your time, energy and value to place it into gold... but whatever, each of us need to decide for ourselves the extent to which we might end up diluting our bitcoin investment into things like gold... I would suggest don't waste your time and money to invest any more than 10% of the value of your bitcoin investment into gold, but hey, you can do what you like.
Your observation is valid that Bitcoin can potentially replace Gold as a store of value gradually in the long run.. However, it is important to note that Gold has been considered as an important asset and hedge against fiat currencies since the dawn of human civilization. Furthermore, a significant potion of world population is unfamiliar with Bitcoin, but they know the value of Gold. In this context, it will take long time before Bitcoin can effectively replace Gold. Therefore, it is a good suggestion to incorporate Gold in our investment portfolio to certain extent, thereby achieving diversification benefits.
This is one aspect I have been viewing this. We cannot completely dispel the fact that governments of nation will do their best to support gold given that they can control that only Bitcoin that is decentralized. So, politics will definitely play a part in all this. Remember how Chinese government decisions have affected the price of Bitcoin in the past. So, it will take time for Bitcoin to beat the popularity and mainstream acceptance of gold but I don't see the time as being too long.


Howbeit, even if this happens, Bitcoin will still triumph given the ease of access, ownership,potential, security and many other advantages it hold for the generality of humanity.

Yep.. there are likely going to be ongoing battles on these grounds, but bitcoin remains superior in terms of the power of being able to possess and verify it relatively easy, and likely people are going to continuously have to learn lessons about holding their actual keys and avoiding getting rug pulled by people who either do not hold the bitcoin that they claim or that they are not being honest in terms of ability to access such coins (and in which circumstances, which is still likely going to continue to enforce ideas about the values in regards to who hold the keys and whether the key holders are actually honest players when they are supposed to be holding those keys on behalf of others.. and it seems that one the the best ways to test those who possess the keys, is to demand possession of the coins).
No doubt, Bitcoin have a lot of advantages. The freedom it offers a lone is one unique feature that endears many to it. Another aspect is that Bitcoin have limited supply and this make it attractive to hold because scarcity will always create demand cum higher prices.
1442  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 10, 2023, 08:54:47 AM
If you did not notice this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5462314.0

Apparently, Adam Back bet 1mil sats (~$300 right now) that bitcoin would be at or above $100K on 0:00hr UTC time March 31, 2024 (initially); the bet was later later adjusted to 840000 block time.

Is 300$ a challenging amount to bet??  Roll Eyes

Yes, $300 is a quite challenging amount for many people especially for the ones who belong to low wage areas. I consider myself among those people for whom $300 is quite a huge sum of money and for that much money I can work a whole month for someone. Some people always try to find many opportunities to earn money the right way and for them such amount really matters a lot my friend.
I don't see $300 bet as worthy of making headline because it cannot affect the people involved. If you want to place a bet that will catch public attention, it should be something worthwhile. In other words, inasmuch as I know that $300 is a good some of money, for this case betting to prove a point, it is a serious joke.
1443  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: August 10, 2023, 07:53:53 AM
On the aspect of Bitcoin and Gold, I think both will play a key role in the future. While the later have come of age, the former ia still young and will take some time to fully harness the potential.

It seems to me that bitcoin is going to continue to eat gold's lunch, just as it has done in the past 10 years or more, so on an individual level you likely need to figure out how much to waste your time, energy and value to place it into gold... but whatever, each of us need to decide for ourselves the extent to which we might end up diluting our bitcoin investment into things like gold... I would suggest don't waste your time and money to invest any more than 10% of the value of your bitcoin investment into gold, but hey, you can do what you like.
I never bought Gold neither am I planning to buy now... Like you said, Bitcoin have proven to be a better option. In other words, I feel the era of Gold is gone unless maybe the BRICS nations are able to reinstate the Gold Standard era which I have seen many people pontificating about. Howbeit, even if this happens, Bitcoin will still triumph given the ease of access, ownership,potential, security and many other advantages it hold for the generality of humanity.
1444  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 09, 2023, 04:04:53 PM
$35k in 5 days confirmed



#Bitcoin LTF Update. Cross Confirmed. LFG!
Source.

$35k sure  Wink

Enjoy @nutildah.



Nice analysis. Elliot wave theory in action. Wave (i) took price from $24,500 to $30,000 and by the Wave theory, wave (iii) cannot be the shortest wave. Therefore,  the expected wave (iii) will take price to $38k and if it is extended, we might see price hit the $45k region.

Indeed, from technical standpoint, Bitcoin is read to experience massive growth in coming days. 
1445  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: August 09, 2023, 03:50:34 PM
[edited out]
Part of what I make out of your post in the other thread is that there are chances of Bitcoin moving from $50k to $1.88 million; How did you arrive at those numbers? Furthermore, even though I believe such is possible,I am still struggling to grasp the rationale for such huge growth and the time duration it is expected to be achieved.

Nevertheless, if that happens, that means we would have seen Bitcoin fully sited in the mainstream as a legal tender and the use cases will just be indispensable.

During the last cycle, in one of my posts from my investment thread, I had placed odds of 0.5%-ish for supra $1.5 million per bitcoin happening by the end of 2023.. or there are various ways to read that.. with probably even lesser odds, because there is a placement of odds upon the substantive prices and there is a placement of odds regarding how long it might take for whichever scenario to play out.

So I figure that the odds are not any worse for this upcoming cycle, and we likely need to move the numbers up higher.

There are a lot of ways to consider upward price potentialities of bitcoin, including considering that:
1) bitcoin is likely 1,000x better than gold, but it is ONLY about 1/20th gold's price. .. it could take 100 or 200 for bitcoin to reach fair market value in regards to gold (so at current inflationary considerations that would be $50 million bitcoin)

2)  in the future, the total investable (addressable) market is likely to be more than $1 quadrillion (in today's dollars), and how much value is bitcoin going to take from that?   That would also be $50 million per bitcoin if it takes all of that.. but yeah, maybe you believe that bitcoin ONLY can take a fraction or that... and for sure, it would take many years (perhaps 100 or more) for bitcoin to come close to capturing most of that $1 Quadrillion, if it is even able to do it..

You do not have to completely subscribe to these kinds of ideas in order to consider the possible ongoing upward price pressures on BTC that might not exactly cause explosive growth in short time periods (such as within a cycle), yet you can also consider that it could take several cycles to start to feel that those kinds of numbers are starting to seem to be more reachable.
Your point is taken and projections well appreciated. While your projections are exciting and suiting to read, the path to their actualization are still not clear but then, they are opinion and hypothesis that are not cast in stones.

On the aspect of Bitcoin and Gold, I think both will play a key role in the future. While the later have come of age, the former ia still young and will take some time to fully harness the potential.
1446  Local / Nigeria (Naija) / Re: HydroCIS shares what Nigerians should know about LPG-powered generators on: August 09, 2023, 03:41:17 PM
HydroCIS is Nigeria and West Africa’s First Energy Information Platform. So they are more reliable to give information about converting from petrol generator to gas generator. We have a thread about a warning last week, but which we are not satisfied with because it gives just simple information that there should not be a leakage but which we all that are using gas (in the Kitchen) all know about. Nigerians have even prefer to use gas to cook in the kitchen.

If you have a LinkedIn account, you can see the information HydroCIS shared which are about petrol to gas generator conversion.

You can check this site to see the information also: https://nairametrics.com/2023/08/07/hydrocis-shares-what-nigerians-should-know-about-lpg-powered-generators/

Key elements for conversion to LPG

According to HydroCIS, the key elements for generator conversions are:

High-quality cylinder regulator, which must have an excess flow shut-off valve.
High-quality safety relief which must be recertified every 5 years and replaced every 15 years. Note that all cylinder valves must have a safety relief.
High-quality cable ties that are used to secure gas hoses safely.
High-quality and high-pressure hose with no folds/cuts and must be replaced every 24 months. Note that water hoses are not suitable replacements for this.  
High-quality dual fuel carburettor that is properly sized for generator capacity and has an easily accessible fuel selector switch/knob.
Jubilee clips that are the correct size for the diameter of the pressure hose should be replaced as required. Note that the user should discard it if it is bent or broken.
HydroCIS also stated that when in use, the generator should be positioned firmly on the ground and ensure that vibration during operation does not result in a change in the position of the generator.  

HydroCIS also talked about the benefits like cost effectiveness and easy maintenance and the steps to take after deciding to convert to LPG.

Read more nairametrics or the infographics on LinkedIn. You will like the infographics.


Thank you for sharing this useful information. This sound more profession than the article in the other thread. Here we can see the professional recommendations and validation that LPG is a good alternative unlike the other article I assume was just put up to discourage people from seeking for alternative.
1447  Local / Nigeria (Naija) / Re: 400l student bags presidential appointment on: August 09, 2023, 10:37:20 AM
Miss Orire Agbaje nah the 400l Economics student of Ibadan wey don gain employment under Tinubu regime as member of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms and some people go dey wonder why she dey so special to gain such a favor. Here nah few reasons;

1- She get a strong interest in tax policy
2- President of the Nigerian Universities Tax Club Association of Accounting Technicians
3- One of the Nigerians selected for Nigeria Higher Education Foundation
4- She get passion for crunching numbers and that's the reason for studying Accounting/ Taxation.

This na welcome development becos we presido don at least recognize the youths and she dey passionate about using her skills to making a difference using this Tax Reforms as a platform. Una feel say dis na over ambition for her side? Considering as nah just member and not chairman wey she be?

how tax reform take come about

The Mandate

Them get the mandate to address the challenges faced by Nigerians in the areas of fiscal governance, tax reforms and growth facilitation.

How una see dis appointment? Godfatherism get hand or she just get the right qualifications for the job?

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/08/tinubu-appoints-400-level-ui-student-agbaje-as-member-of-tax-reforms-committee/



She will help "widen the tax net..."

I do not have problem with the appointment, but in a country where foreign companies are leaving, SME are closing and job losses happening at an alarming rate, taxation should not be the main focus of government rather the economy. If you fix the economy, create jobs and businesses for people, then it becomes easier to tax people and they will happily pay.

If we continue like this, we might resort to the dark old days of government moving from village to village arresting people because of tax. Well, wetin concern a hungry man with tax!
1448  Local / Nigeria (Naija) / Re: Bureau De Change Asking Government to Ban Binance to Save Naira on: August 09, 2023, 09:59:00 AM
On Binance, Nigerians are trading naira/crypto (CexP2P ) within themselves, not with foreign countries. I do not see how this would put pressure on naira. Assuming we trade with foreign people, this can decrease the foreign reserves. But as we trade within ourselves, I do not know how this will decrease the foreign reserves and put pressure on naira.

I see only SEC to be correct, but I do not know why they are focusing just only on Binance. There are many other exchanges that you can trade naira/crypto (CexP2P), not only on Binance exchange.
I dey feel say na the volume them dey look. Other people wey dey trade P2P no popular reach Binance na why I feel say them wan target the head. The part wey dey vex me well well na as them thinking say na Binance dey affect our Naira...Very confused set of people!

Remember sometime in 2021 when CBN them also accuse Aboki FX of the same thing and that made Aboki FX to shutdown their operation, yet, e no stop Naira from failing like old woman breast. If you bend one side look this matter, you go see say na frustration dey worry these people...them no know wetin to do because "if e didn't dey, e didn't dey". So,I feel say them just dey look for who to blame because na blame game be their pattern.

Abeg make them no use their reggae spoil our ogene o!
1449  Local / Nigeria (Naija) / Bureau De Change Asking Government to Ban Binance to Save Naira on: August 09, 2023, 07:25:10 AM
My people, e don happen o!  Bureau De Change (the people wey dey incharge of forex aka foreign exchange) don dey tell federal government to ban Binance to save our Naira. This one shock me no be small. I don't know how Binance take dey make our Naira weak abi na Binance dey manage our economy. This one show say the people wey dey handle some of these agencies no even know the things wey fit affect our currency. I truly dey feel bad for this kind news.

We all know say our government no gree create job for the youth, now cryptocurrency na one way youth take dey see food chop, if them ban Binance, imagine how many youths using P2P to see food wey go dey affected.

Binance P2P been help wella even when CBN been dey worry people wey use cryptocurrency. Naija people were still able to exchange, do business overseas and this help plenty people make a living. This will be very painful if government come ban Binance for Nigeria because plenty people wey create account for Binance used their BVN or NIN to do KYC verification.  So if government ban Binance, them no go get access to these portals and there are other ways them go mandate Binance not to allow Nigerians use their exchange as e suppose be.

My people how una see this matter?

For those wey wan read the news in detail, Peoples Gazette carry am.

1450  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: August 08, 2023, 05:02:19 PM
I am still trying accumulate $20 Bitcoin in daily day trough price under $30,000, my planning until Bitcoin raise to $50,000 stop accumulate and take profit since one years spent few percent of my salary spending to invest in Bitcoin. In my environment have tradition with saving money called lottery club or "arisan" and each time of duration have more than 20 until 30 member, each member will get their fund in next ten days later which spending from 10$ until $20 in daily day and take more than one or two years duration for every one getting their saving fund. But I change my mindset than holding with fiat get potential inflation in the future, I try with accumulate Bitcoin and not stopping yet until bitcoin one day later back up above $50,000.

Its bitcoin still on the dip and as much possible accumulate and keep holding until one time selling our Bitcoin assets in the higher price,
This strategy is good;it shows you have a plan in place. The only thing I would have done differently would be not to sell all at $50k because there is very high chance that once Bitcoin reaches $50k, it will pass the ATH of around $69k with target around $100k. So you will be loosing decent amount of money selling at the price you planned. What you should do is to liquidate part base on your needs and leave the rest to run.

I am still trying accumulate $20 Bitcoin in daily day trough price under $30,000, my planning until Bitcoin raise to $50,000 stop accumulate and take profit since one years spent few percent of my salary spending to invest in Bitcoin.
Regarding your plan to take profits at $50k, that surely seems short-sighted to me, and sure people can do whatever they like, even if they are likely selling too many BTC too soon, failing to understand and appreciate the value of having had spent a decent amount of time accumulating BTC, likely putting too much value in terms of the fiat price appreciation, and failing to consider a longer term investment time horizon that may well be 4-10 years or more into the future... and even 4 years is a pretty short period of time, but could be acceptable for some more elderly people or people who might otherwise be in phases in their lives in which they might not be able to accumulate and they are either in maintenance or liquidation stages of their lives.
At the pace the world is going, fiat is seriously loosing value and at alarming rate. My country's currency was recently devalued and this lead to huge inflation and economic woe for a lot of people. Those who thought they were smart by saving for the future through fixed deposits have lost more than 60% of the value of their money even when there is gain in the quantity while those who bought Bitcoin are in huge profits already with the value of their investment tripled within same one year interval.

The need for people to start shifting from fiat for something more reliable and sustainable like Bitcoin can never be over-emphasized.

Yesterday, in another thread, I made a post about 4 hypothetical HODLers, and my suggestion in that post is that it is problematic for the hypothetical holders to be selling too much of their BTC too soon, and out of the 4 that I described, it seems to me that ONLY the 1st one was really in a position to be possibly selling some of his/her BTC stash, and sure of course, each person has to decide for himself/herself in regards to the extent that they believe selling BTC is a good idea for them, even if the BTC price may well end up surging in the short term, how are they going to know that they did not sell too much BTC too soon and screw up their own BTC accumulation strategies because there might be erroneous ideas that the BTC price is going to correct back down and it might not correct back down.
Part of what I make out of your post in the other thread is that there are chances of Bitcoin moving from $50k to $1.88 million; How did you arrive at those numbers? Furthermore, even though I believe such is possible,I am still struggling to grasp the rationale for such huge growth and the time duration it is expected to be achieved.

Nevertheless, if that happens, that means we would have seen Bitcoin fully sited in the mainstream as a legal tender and the use cases will just be indispensable.
1451  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: August 08, 2023, 02:07:26 PM
I am still trying accumulate $20 Bitcoin in daily day trough price under $30,000, my planning until Bitcoin raise to $50,000 stop accumulate and take profit since one years spent few percent of my salary spending to invest in Bitcoin. In my environment have tradition with saving money called lottery club or "arisan" and each time of duration have more than 20 until 30 member, each member will get their fund in next ten days later which spending from 10$ until $20 in daily day and take more than one or two years duration for every one getting their saving fund. But I change my mindset than holding with fiat get potential inflation in the future, I try with accumulate Bitcoin and not stopping yet until bitcoin one day later back up above $50,000.

Its bitcoin still on the dip and as much possible accumulate and keep holding until one time selling our Bitcoin assets in the higher price,
This strategy is good;it shows you have a plan in place. The only thing I would have done differently would be not to sell all at $50k because there is very high chance that once Bitcoin reaches $50k, it will pass the ATH of around $69k with target around $100k. So you will be loosing decent amount of money selling at the price you planned. What you should do is to liquidate part base on your needs and leave the rest to run.

I am still trying accumulate $20 Bitcoin in daily day trough price under $30,000, my planning until Bitcoin raise to $50,000 stop accumulate and take profit since one years spent few percent of my salary spending to invest in Bitcoin.
Regarding your plan to take profits at $50k, that surely seems short-sighted to me, and sure people can do whatever they like, even if they are likely selling too many BTC too soon, failing to understand and appreciate the value of having had spent a decent amount of time accumulating BTC, likely putting too much value in terms of the fiat price appreciation, and failing to consider a longer term investment time horizon that may well be 4-10 years or more into the future... and even 4 years is a pretty short period of time, but could be acceptable for some more elderly people or people who might otherwise be in phases in their lives in which they might not be able to accumulate and they are either in maintenance or liquidation stages of their lives.
At the pace the world is going, fiat is seriously loosing value and at alarming rate. My country's currency was recently devalued and this lead to huge inflation and economic woe for a lot of people. Those who thought they were smart by saving for the future through fixed deposits have lost more than 60% of the value of their money even when there is gain in the quantity while those who bought Bitcoin are in huge profits already with the value of their investment tripled within same one year interval.

The need for people to start shifting from fiat for something more reliable and sustainable like Bitcoin can never be over-emphasized.
1452  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wrong Predictions as price keep failing! on: August 08, 2023, 11:34:38 AM
Nobody bitcoin price prediction has work this season,
How do you know do you have a list of predictions, there are no exact predictions and predictions varied for every investor and traders.

Quote
I told my friends early January that this year will still be difficult for bitcoin to rise since they're still blocks on digestive and ingestive policies of government, why bitcoin should not stay by government. But they argued me to a fault but I knew bitcoin will not gets to $40k this year. The price will definitely rise but not at the moment. Do you predict the price to any level year?
It's too early to tell about the price we are just halfway through the year, and so many things are going to happen all I know is I'm very positive about the outlook this year, 2022 is a very hard year for us and 2023 a year before the halving is a good time to accumulate, the next halving will probably very different now because we have massive adoption and we will have a deduction of the output, the demand will be greater than the supply.
I strongly agree with you. Many people who are fidgeting are those who think Bitcoin price will just continue flying without building up orders. As a norm, everyone will not keeping their holding before the anticipated bull run; some must panic and sell and regret afterward. The only way the market ensures this happens is the extended consolidation with sudden short-term drops that is happening.

Those who are conversant with the vibration of the market will use this opportunity to buy instead of sell. In less that 12 months, Bitcoin halving will happen, PayPal just launched their stablecoin, Binance is launching Bitcoin mining infrastructure, Bitcoin ETFs are around the corner... many great news ahead.

In my opinion, every believer of Bitcoin should consider taking a comfortable position in preparation for the years ahead.
1453  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 08, 2023, 10:47:58 AM
$35k in 5 days confirmed
This is possible... everything is set to see this happen. The last stakeout happened yesterday and going forward, I am optimistic that we will see appreciable growth in coming days.
Those who sold during the lingered consolidation are truly the real weak hands.
1454  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How do you stop gambling (sports betting, casino e.t.c)? on: August 08, 2023, 10:44:16 AM
For many people, sports betting may be a deadly addiction because it is a simple method to generate money with no physical work. It is frequently perceived as a technique to make quick and easy money, but this is not always the case. Many people find it difficult to give up sports betting because of the possibility of significant gains and the sense of being in control of their own fate.The reality, however, is that once you become addicted, quitting can be extremely tough. People may wind up spending more money than they can afford to chase their losses or becoming addicted to the adrenaline rush that comes with winning.

Few betting sites, they offer a Responsible Gambling option in which you can freeze your account.for both Definite and indefinite period. But many sites wont provide you with that option. your account for both a fixed and an infinite term.
It is very easy to turn sports betting into addiction and majority of people involved are toeing this line, given the promises it hold and requiring little efforts although with compounded risk. Furthermore, the chances of failure is also aggravated by the requirements of 100% results... this is why the chances of winning is very slim.
However, when greed is conquered,  sports betting can be a very profitable businesses. The pundits have integrated many risk mitigation option and some companies even give options that does not require 100% delivery. Many smart guys are already seizing these opportunities to make a living. Some are making as much as 20% of their capital daily with minimal risk.
1455  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 08, 2023, 09:13:36 AM
Your quotes are fucked up.. but I fixed them within my post.... and largely it was because you seemed to have had copied and pasted an extra
I was practically tired and exhausted after closing from 9/5 job. Please pardon me and thank you for corrections. Hopefully and gradually, I will grasp the nitty gritty of the forum because I am not there yet at the moment.


Actually, the market have a way of putting one into confusion especially with this extended consolidation. Nevertheless, I have always maintained that we are not going to go south down to $24k region; this is my general bias and expectations.

$24k seems like a pretty high price point to be proclaiming that the BTC price will "never" go below.
Well, I was actually referring to the current market cycle. Market move in cycles (R. Elliot captured it in his wave theory). So, I expect that before we see any drop in price to the $24k region,we should see some uptrend to the $37k region and if this move tarries till the time of Bitcoin halving of 2024, it might even lead to a new ATH. Well, these are projectionss and expectations... only time will clarify


I prefer to attempt to think of these matters in a kind of graduated way, yet we should attempt to lock in the timeframe too.  If we are talking about never or if we might be talking about this cycle so maybe in the next 3-6 months?  Or maybe we could pick "prior to the halvening" or some other timeframe that we might want to consider as a possible relevant talking point. 

So then once we pick the time, and let me just presume that you meant prior to the halvening (rather than ever), so if we might say that going below the 200-week moving average might be 50/50 chances, or maybe even greater than 50/50 chances.  We are not very far away from the 200-week moving average (currently at $27,218), even though it continues to move up at nearly $16 per day... so then $24k is really not very far from the 200 week moving average either, but maybe the odds might get as low as 20% to 30%, but surely not as low as zero.. but if we might want to be ballsy about it, maybe we could proclaim going below $24k is less than 10%, yet I will still consider you as an exaggerator (or overly confident) if you are placing those kinds of odds on that price, even if you might really believe it, even if you are not sharing your beliefs with others, and even if you might end up being correct, it still does not seem that you are being realistic when you try to make such strict assignments of probabilities.
I appreciate your open mindedness in this regard. The odds of price getting to the $24k region is definitely not zero and can never be. Our job is limited to predicting possible scenarios and act accordingly. While I understand this flexibility, I never really had the motivation to implement it but as I have come to know that you do implement such flexibility, it becomes a good area of improvement in my Bitcoin journey.


Well I have largely been attempting to set these kinds of ongoing BTC buy orders (even extremes), since the beginning of my bitcoining.. so even when I started to buy in late 2013, I was trying to buy dips, even when I was the earliest days of my DCA'ing practices too. 

I did not really sell any BTC without immediately replacing until about August or so of 2015, and at that time, I started a practice in which I created formulas for myself for amounts of BTC that I could sell on the way up .... and so it was ONLY small factions of what my profits would have had been, so if I had 10 BTC and the BTC price went up $10, then my profits would be $100, and so the most that I could sell from those profits would be 50%, but most commonly I would only allow myself to sell less than 25% of the profits amounts (at most)... So as the cash would pile up, then that money would just be set up in order to buy BTC back on dips, and if the BTC price did not dip, then the money would either be spent or just placed into a kind of long-term reserve fund that might still be dedicated to BTC buys without specifically having any exact earmarks as to when it might be used.

In my earliest days of attempting to prepare myself financially and psychologically for either BTC price direction (and especially BTC price dips), I frequently made mistakes that revolved around running out of money to buy BTC way too soon because the BTC price would frequently dip further or for longer than anticipated, so I frequently would get close to running out of money, even if I never really did technically run out of money, but practically the way that I would have to begin to reduce my BTC buy orders, then I would still consider that whatever errors that I had made were still within a kind of category of running out of money.

I feel that in the past 7-8 years, I have gotten quite a bit better at not buying back too much BTC too soon, but I have not completely removed myself from such issue, and even in during the BTC price run up in 2021, I had slowly retracted a lot of the cash that I had reserved for BTC buy backs going down to $9k or so, and by the time we got into about May 2022, my BTC buy orders ONLY went down to the 200-week moving average which was then right below $22k - however, in mid May 2022, when the BTC prices suddenly dropped from upper $30ks to upper $20ks, I had myself a bit of an "oh fuck!" moment.  I pretty much had to resize and rearrange several of my buy orders so they would go down to below $20k, and even though I still hoped that the BTC price would not go below $20k, I made those preparations, and when the BTC prices kept dropping, I had to continue to rearrange and ultimately I had to add more value from outside funds in order to create buy orders going down to nearly $10k. and currently the lowest of the remaining ones are sitting around $13k.. but of course, if we ended up experiencing BTC prices in the lower $20ks or even sub $20ks, I may well have to restructure the lowest of my current BTC buy orders....

So, I am bringing up my various experiences between May 2022 and December-ish 2022 in order to describe adjustments that I have had to make that attempt to prepare me for extreme scenarios, even ones that I do not expect to happen and that I don't even want to happen, but I have the money on reserve at those price points in order that I don't have to worry about having capital already allocated to take advantage of extreme scenarios that I still consider to be very low probability events.. that may well even be in a below 5% scenario at present time to go down to $13k in this cycle or even in the next year or so, seems like less than 5% odds.
You have a great deal of experience and thank you for sharing same for us gratis. Going forward, I envisage a lot of improvements in my approach and general disposition towards Bitcoin, and part of the credit will go to you and other senior people here that I have learnt so much from.

1456  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 07, 2023, 08:19:48 PM
In my opinion, I don't expected any deep drop in price anymore. That era is gone and soon volume will begin to increase as well as the price.
That's the spirit!!!!

I am glad that you moved away from the earlier doom and gloom in your post, but we know it is good to be prepared for either direction, which surely is a thing that is possible to accomplish.
I am learning and growing and one sign of it is the ability to adjust my views when presented with plausible reasons and evidence.

All within the same post?

That seems to be more appropriately called "wiffle-waffling."

I would not call it "learning and growing.".. but hey.. whatever.  You do you.   Tongue
Actually, the market have a way of putting one into confusion especially with this extended consolidation. Nevertheless, I have always maintained that we are not going to go south down to $24k region; this is my general bias and expectations. Prior to we having this conversation, I was a kind of fixed on this bias and never willing to consider any possibilities of a drop to even $20k or lower.

It seems that in the past few weeks, I had posted in another thread and disclosed that I had around 2.5% of my total BTC allocated investment funds that are in cash, and so currently, I have BTC buy orders all the way down to $13k-ish, but I really don't expect anything to fill lower than $24k-ish.. but sure if some of them end up filling lower than $24k, then so be it, but I don't expect it and I don't even want it...
But later learnt from your above that even though you wish price never get lower, you already made plans for such scenerio... that is the learning I was emphasizing. I have come to understand, from this discussion, that the market need a lot of flexibility instead of being fixated on a bias.

At least we have a common ground which is an upside move for Bitcoin.


1457  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 07, 2023, 05:32:13 PM
If you sweat every $100-200 move in the current btc price, then you are over-invested.
It is always advisable to invest what will not make one lose sleep. Those who follow that principle will not be perturbed by the current market condition because Bitcoin will always come out stronger and better. Instead of panicking, the best is to buy more at any opportunity provided you are in a good financial standing and that you don't need the money urgently.


BTW, Lawrence Livermore (as depicted/documented in the linked book) said that if you start thinking that profit in your investment would immediately "pay" for something, then Mr. market tend to punish you (almost immediately).

https://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Edwin-Lef%C3%A8vre/dp/0471770884
I have experienced this trading the currency market. The market do not really care about your feelings, your needs and whatever.... it has to do what it wants to do. Ours is to do what we think is the best reaction to the market, manage our risk properly and allow it play out.
1458  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 07, 2023, 02:12:34 PM
This picture speak volume about the promises of Bitcoin. The freedom and opportunities offered by Bitcoin is unique as it truly exposes the weakness of global financial system. It is my utmost wish that Bitcoin will gain good acceptance and penetration into the mainstream as that will birth a new dawn in the history of mankind. Of course this will come amidst strong resistance from the powers that be.
1459  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 07, 2023, 12:10:36 PM
Sunday musings...

Most people right now:
they don't believe in bitcoin
Well, more for me, then
#haiku
It does seem like the market is getting a little exhausted. I think the folks who got in at the bottom have likely all sold now. I’m not sure where the increased selling is coming from that’s holding the price down still. I’m not sure how much longer this will continue, but I definitely don’t expect it to remain a trend after April of next year due to the halving.
The selling is coming from people who bought around $16k and around $24700 and have waited so long for a breakout that is not coming as expected. Bitcoin took some lows(liquidity) around $24700 and by expectations from technical stand point, that was enough fuel to see Bicoin hit the $36k region. But as that have not happened and Bitcoin continues to compress in the ascending triangle, some people are giving it a second thought that maybe, there will be another appreciable down move before the much expected bull run.

Yes.  Good luck with those down before up expectations, including how low that you are placing your bets.

No BIG deal to have some "down before up" buy orders out there, as long as you are not necessarily feeling any kind of expectation that they are going to fill.

It seems that in the past few weeks, I had posted in another thread and disclosed that I had around 2.5% of my total BTC allocated investment funds that are in cash, and so currently, I have BTC buy orders all the way down to $13k-ish, but I really don't expect anything to fill lower than $24k-ish.. but sure if some of them end up filling lower than $24k, then so be it, but I don't expect it and I don't even want it...
This is the exact flexibility I aspire to achieve as that is how to maximize opportunities. This also agree with the statement that "no one is sure of anything", so we plan for all possible scenarios.

Also, it seems that the odds are becoming greater and greater that we are not even going to get a revisiting of the 200-week moving average, which is currently at $27,203.

Sure, the 200-week moving average has not shown itself to be impenetrable, but it still well me be the case that we are moving back into more normal times.
This is correct and the same views I also have... price may not see huge downside from where we are. Any serious fundamental released at this point is enough to start the upward move. Many people are of this opinion as well but the concern is if the patience to wait for the market, to do what it would, is there. There a saying that market have a mind of it's own and does not care what anyone thinks. So, we are limited to make the best guesses and allow time prove us right or wrong. 


In my opinion, I don't expected any deep drop in price anymore. That era is gone and soon volume will begin to increase as well as the price.

That's the spirit!!!!

I am glad that you moved away from the earlier doom and gloom in your post, but we know it is good to be prepared for either direction, which surely is a thing that is possible to accomplish.
I am learning and growing and one sign of it is the ability to adjust my views when presented with plausible reasons and evidence.
1460  Local / Nigeria (Naija) / Re: [your Opinion] For this country Patient dog still dey eat the fattest Bone??? on: August 06, 2023, 09:16:51 PM
I been see one post like that for Facebook about the
patients dogs with the way things are in this our country
9ja


upload

 For me ohhhh I think the patient dog don stop to dey eat the fattest bone long time ago because  if the patient dog still dey wait e be like say hungry go kill am ohhhh so e go just use shortcut get wetin him want.

What do you guys think about this proverb do you think people still have this patient or they shortcut to get what they want.
This post don cast tey tey... e for make sense say e get wetin the dog dey wait for... but for as e be for the country so, the dog dey wait in vain. See a things dey mocr from bad to worse as time dey go... wetin really be the thing wey the dog dey wait for? Well, the patient dog dey wait to eat bone wey them don grind use feed their chicken. Las las na hunger go ki that patient dog.
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