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1461  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: What happens If Binance Exchange Flee Away like FTX on: April 09, 2023, 04:54:00 AM
If they are gone it will be most likely due to regulations and not them running away with your crypto. They did proof of reserves audits and where the ones who called out FTX on their insolvency.

Binance is becoming more like Tether. People think they are going to get scammed but it’s the largest exchange and stablecoin and they will be fine. Need to ignore the FUD. Just don’t keep large amounts of crypto on any exchanges.
1462  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Why only a Bitcoin trading pair is the best thing? on: April 09, 2023, 04:51:25 AM
These days I actually swing trade ETH more than BTC. And many days ETH has more volume than BTC even if the market cap for BTC is higher.

I think the reason why is because there seems to be more trades for ETH and it’s more volatile. You can scalp 25 ETH all day and for every $10 move you catch that’s over $250 profit and a $10 move on ETH is not uncommon.
1463  Economy / Economics / Re: "Greedflation" has gone too far! on: April 08, 2023, 04:56:21 AM
It’s happening because people are actually paying these high prices. Look at cars. The average cost of a car is $50K and not only that but there are marks up or mandatory add ons which the dealer adds. Then there is interests rates. So a $50K car is like $1000 a month for 5-6 years.

You would think they would lower prices because it’s too expensive. But guess what . People are actually paying these prices and the dealers and auto makers basically will keep doing what works to make money.
1464  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: CEXs vs DEXs & Spot vs Future - Tips and Suggestions (V2) on: April 08, 2023, 04:51:55 AM
Anyone know what the lowest trading fees are for some of these dexs. I mean something like Uniswap is like 0.3% sometimes and with big Ethereum transfer fees it can get expensive. Basically cheaper to use a CEX.

I went to the dex and tried to find the fees but went nowhere. All they say the fees vary but they don’t actually post any fees.
1465  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: What if CEX do not have BTCs? What is being traded then? on: April 08, 2023, 04:48:18 AM
When you buy a stock it’s basically electronic so you don’t see it but if you pay you can get a stock certificate and put that in your deposit box in the bank.

Keep in mind with stocks there are times when there can be more people holding shares than shares outstanding. It happens when people borrow to short. Basically the same share held by 2 people at least. With a physical stock certificate this obviously wouldn’t be possible.
1466  Economy / Speculation / Re: [POLL] MtGox distribution, early payment or full payment? on: April 06, 2023, 07:04:39 PM
Yes getting half back would be good however it matters when. There is a difference of taking 33% back today OR getting 50% back in 10 years. Which would you pick?

Also the longer the trial goes on for the more money will get sucked out from the creditors. Lawyers are expensive and they always work slow in cases like this.

My guess is that it’s probably closer to 16% of your BTC  at the end of the year or 25% of your BTC 2 years from now. Nobody is going to be getting 50% back ever. I’m not sure where this number comes from, but it doesn’t come from anybody with any knowledge of the situation. The lawyers will definitely have eaten a massive amount of the potential distribution. Makes you wonder if mtgox could have become solvent playing games with custom funds longer to try and profit themselves out of insolvency like Gemini is trying to do now.

Well there is hope if Solana becomes popular again. I think they hold like 10% of the entire market cap of Solana. Since its still trading at $20 there is hope it can make its way into the $50-$100 range. If we get into the $100 range then this would be their largest holding valued at $4B.

The rest of the tokens like SRM or FTX I dont think they will be worth much. Even if they start to liquidate them, the price will go down because the supply is just too large. However Solana in a strong bull market might be possible to liquidate all their holdings if done slowly.

Then we might see 50 cents on the dollar. But who knows.
1467  Economy / Speculation / Re: MicroStrategy Buys Another 1,045 bitcoins for $29.3m on: April 06, 2023, 06:58:59 PM
Microstrategy is no doubt responsible for Bitcoin’s continued strength with all their buying support. However, I’ve been saying for a while now that it makes me uncomfortable with how much BTC they have. It sort of goes against what Bitcoin is about to have so many coins centralized in one entity.  At some point Microstrategy will be doing more harm than good and I think we’re nearing that point.

Yes this is going to be an issue. Say we start to rally to $40-60K or so. And what is going to happen if MSTR earnings are released and it shows that they sold a bunch of Bitcoins. What will happen to bitcoins price then? I'll be similar to Tesla when they started to sell their bitcoin holdings.

People will think they are going to dump billions on the market and they will start to sell their bitcoins before MSTR starts to take profits. Right now we dont have to worry because he is at break-even pretty much. Make no sense for him to sell at $30K, however I can see him taking profit this time at $50K if we get there in the near future.
1468  Economy / Economics / Re: [Summary]Things to be considered for a possible market crash on: April 06, 2023, 06:54:39 PM
The bond market is trading like there is going to be a crash. Back in 2008 it was the same thing. The economy was basically messed up but stocks kept hitting highs and everybody was acting like nothing was wrong. The last fed meeting JPow said they won't be any cuts this year, but if you look at the bond market they are saying there is a chance of a cut in July and maybe 100 bps cuts at the end of the year. Why is this an issue?

Well its because what JPow says should be reflected on the bond market but its not. So either the bond market thinks JPow is lying or they know that something bad will happen and they are pricing in lower rates for the future. We will see which side is correct in a few months.
1469  Economy / Economics / Re: U.S. Treasury under pressure of DeFi market threat! on: April 06, 2023, 06:51:59 PM
The economy is on the verge of collapsing and they are blaming crypto, makes no sense. They got crazy amounts of debt and debt ceiling needs to be raised. Crazy inflation. Nobody has money for anything. Banks are failing left and right but they sights are set on Crypto. There are more important things that the US government needs to worry about right now.

Like preventing the US economy from going into a hyper inflation state. Even though inflation has cooled, its still there. We got 0.5% MoM inflation, that is still 6% a year, far away from the 2% target. The fed should work on improving stability of the economy instead of working about crypto at the moment.
1470  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: IMO - BTC showing BULL inverse head / shoulders --- ETH showing BEARISH TRIANGLE on: April 06, 2023, 06:44:24 PM
Even though they are correlated they don't always trade together. Look at ETHBTC chart, what do you see. It looks like a diamond formation which is basically very difficult to trade. However for the past few days ETHBTC has been gaining so there is a chance it might break the formation to the upside.

The larger issue is the ETH staking unlock with the next upgrade. Many are thinking there will be lots of tokens dumped when they become unlocked and many are waiting until the event concludes before they take a long on ETH. I don't think that upgrade will be a bullish upgrade. Kind of like MtGox releasing bitcoins later in the year.

1471  Economy / Speculation / Re: [POLL] MtGox distribution, early payment or full payment? on: April 06, 2023, 03:37:18 AM
Yes getting half back would be good however it matters when. There is a difference of taking 33% back today OR getting 50% back in 10 years. Which would you pick?

Also the longer the trial goes on for the more money will get sucked out from the creditors. Lawyers are expensive and they always work slow in cases like this.
1472  Economy / Speculation / Re: MicroStrategy Buys Another 1,045 bitcoins for $29.3m on: April 06, 2023, 03:33:43 AM
They are pretty much at break even after those huge buys at $50K plus range. I remember when he first announced he bought Bitcoin at $10K. His average before the huge bull market was like $11111 eventually but those huge buys really messed up his average cost.

He does DCA but not with similar amounts. He bought more at a higher price and less at a lower price. Either way looks like next month he’ll be at break even or so. I remember his stock went crazy during the bull market.
1473  Economy / Economics / Re: Crypto Clients getting turned down by United Kingdom Banks | PM on other quest on: April 04, 2023, 04:32:41 AM
They are doing this because of what happens with Silvergate and Silicon Valley bank. They think that due to crypto those banks failed.

FTX started the fear and it led to Silvergate collapse which spread to Silicon Valley. However Silvergate was mostly a big crypto bank for all exchanges. Silicon Valley wasn’t. And most of these banks around the world aren’t keeping customers who trade crypto. Makes no sense to close their accounts.
1474  Economy / Speculation / Re: The US government sold 9800 bitcoin on March 14 on: April 04, 2023, 04:29:57 AM
The us government is in so much debt that selling these bitcoins won’t help them at all. They are trillions in debt and paying huge amounts of interest every day on that debt. This is a drop in the bucket. They aren’t doing this to save their economy even if they knew Bitcoin would rise in the near future.

They need to reduce spending in another ways. They need to reduce their military spending and not spend so much fighting climate change. They are digging themselves into a huge hole and no way they will get out. They will just print money to pay all these debts and make inflation worse.
1475  Economy / Speculation / Re: [POLL] MtGox distribution, early payment or full payment? on: April 04, 2023, 04:25:43 AM
Here is the largest difference between MtGox and FTX. When MtGox went down many held BTC. When FTX went down most of the largest holdings were stablecoins. Stablecoin will never increase in value only devalue due to inflation.

BTC was like $700 when MtGox shutdown and peaked 100x higher. It won’t happen to stablecoins.

So imagine having $1000 on FTX. And getting half of it back in 10 years when inflation ate away another 25% of your money. That $1000 becomes more like $325 or so.
1476  Economy / Speculation / Re: What is the Bitcoin (BTC) Halving? Will Bitcoin Price Really Be $100K Next Year? on: April 04, 2023, 04:21:14 AM
There is just way too much mess going on with the economy right now. We got crazy inflation that we assumed would of topped and the fed wouldn’t raise rates anymore and Wall Street and crypto were happy.

Then we got bank crisis issues which is causing fed balance sheet is expand and last night we got the oil production cuts which will make the energy inflation go higher. So most likely we aren’t getting cuts anytime soon.
1477  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Trading Signals vs Own Analysis on: April 03, 2023, 03:54:07 AM
Those trading signal groups are all scams.
If they actually paid off why would they be selling memberships when they could just trade themselves?

There are some which are even worse. They have a very low or free membership fee. And they promote low cap coins which they usually buy beforehand and then they pump it and exit when their readers buy that token. They are basically used as exit liquidity.

1478  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Day trading is perfect work for jobless peoples on: April 03, 2023, 03:50:57 AM
Yeah the OP makes no sense or has never really traded with real money.  Most people here do this for fun as a hobby and already got a job somewhere.

They get emotional over a trade and end up losing more money but they still have their day job. Imagine relying on trading to pay your bills? You know how stressful it would be?

You need like a year or 2 worth of money set aside for bills not including trading capital. Or live at home with your parents who will pay your bills.
1479  Economy / Economics / Re: Banks are a business, and you are the cash cow on: April 03, 2023, 03:48:12 AM
I don’t think banks really care about monthly fees. Most banks will waive the fee if you are a student or if you have a certain balance at the end of the month.

The way they make money is by loans and mortgages. With expensive real estate these days they get hundreds of dollars of interest each month per mortgage pretty much. And the collateral is very safe since it’s real estate.
1480  Economy / Speculation / Re: The US government sold 9800 bitcoin on March 14 on: April 03, 2023, 03:43:15 AM
Since these aren’t MtGox victims I am not expecting them to dump it all at once. They were smart and basically sold it during a bull run that week.

If this was MtGox users getting their claims I would be more nervous because those would be dumped at once but since this is the USG I don’t think they really care what price they sell it for. Whether they sold at $30K or $20K do you think it matters to them? No.
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