Yes lately there are many of these reports coming out. Oil is down and it seemed that inflation has peaked. So most likely the fed won't hike so much. Hence why yields went down and why stock recovered with crypto. Most likely fed won't raise rates in 2023, maybe cut them. So risk on assets like bitcoin are rallying.

However...

Today we got about half a million new jobs added in the US market. This doesn't look good for inflation. There is a shortage of workers and as a result many businesses will need to increase prices and it will lead to inflation going up. So who knows if their prediction will become true.

Right now is the worst possible time to do this. I don't think you could of found any worse time than now. First of all interest rates are rising and loans of any type will be expensive. Especially given this isn't a mortgage or even a car and there is no colleratal and its unsecured.

Second in a few weeks, ETHEREUM will move to POW and tons of the miner revenue will be gone. Farms will be shutdown. There will be little to no money to be made. You can switch to Bitcoin ASICs but many large farms will do the same. Just forget this idea.

I think the best strategy is to just buy ETH spot and sell Sept ETH futures in a couple of weeks or so.

Right now I think it has a negative premium of -0.5%. However as we get closer and closer to the merge this premium will become more negative like 5% or so because everyone will buy ETH on the date of merge and sell it as soon as it passes the block number and they will hedge with Sept futures or Perps. If you get in early you can get a guaranteed risk free trade pretty much.

For those that don’t know how difficulty works, it works like this.

Let’s say you are making $10/ day now with ETH mining and ETC mining is giving you $9/day.

When ETH ends POW, does it mean you will make $9 a day instead of $10? No.

Reason why is that now the difficulty for ETC is small, when there is no more ETH to mine, the difficulty can double, triple, quadriple, etc.

If difficulty doubles you make $4.5 a day, if it’s quads then you make $2.25 a day, etc.

There will definitely be a few different chains out there. I can already predict people buying ETH on spot market and keeping it in their wallet before the merge to get a few different coin forks.

We will see in sept what the approx price will be. If you watch the futures and you see a huge difference between spot and future/perp price then you can be sure people are trying to get the free forked coins.

Many stocks are already pumping lots off their lows. What traders are thinking is that next months CPI print will be low and that implies we peaked. Since we peaked the fed won’t doing anything crazy like 1% rate hikes.

So the markets are calm. But there is still a long way to go. Too much tensions in the markets with what happened with Pelosi and Taiwan earlier this week. However it looks like maybe that was the bottom.

We are going up because stocks are going up because bond yields have started to hint that the fed won’t be aggressive in their hikes. We will get a couple of more hikes and then we will most likely get some rates cuts.

This seems true now because I think inflation peaked last month with gas prices going down and everything should be cheaper now.

So unless we get double digit inflation. Which is unlikely. This was most likely the bottom.

Crude is dropping for a few reasons.

First reason is that production has increased slightly. So there is more supply in the markets.

Second reason is that demand has decreased slightly as well. People are basically driving less. They only take trips they need and don’t waste gas driving around in a circle.

For the past few months I’ve been seeing charts and posts about electricity in Germany being extremely expensive. Today I read an article it’s more than 10x expensive than it was between 2010-2020. This can’t be true.

Can someone who lives there verify this?

Yeah something strange going on with that model of GPU from Sapphire. The Sapphire from the 7xxx era and the current era were all pretty robust. However something about that Dual-X model which made them susceptible to blowing up.

Even before ETH, people bought those to mine LTC and Doge (Scrypt) algo and they had similar issues. Within a few days, they would go up in smoke. However since they were new back then, you just had to RMA them and got sent a new one.

I have a feeling that if we get some arbirtage opportunies in Sept with people longing ETH (before fork) and shorting Sept futures, it can give us a hint of a possible value for ETH-POW fork pretty much.

Similar to what happened with that OMG last year. We had people longing OMG on spot markets and they shorted the perps/futures just to get the free airdrop. I am thinking we see something with ETH as we get closer and closer to the date.

Yes gamers will always favour Nvidia. If you are selling 2 types of GPUs you will find that you will get more interest on the Nvidia even if it costs more than the AMD. I am not much of a gamer so I don't know why they favour Nvidia but I think its like Intel VS AMD for CPUs. When you ask most tech geeks they will always prefer Intel compared to AMD. And the same is true with GPUs why gamers prefer Nvidia.

For the past couple of years it was a different story. It was easy to sell AMD because half the buyers I had were actually miners and they just wanted the cheapest GPU out there. However in regular times you will have a harder time selling an AMD gpu than a Nvidia GPU.

You really aren't going to find a secret for financial success online or in a book. You need to do your own research, find what works for you and do it.

Many of these courses which teaches how to trade and become financially secure are all scams. They don't know how to trade if they did they wouldn't be selling courses or ebooks. You need to trade for a few years and see if its for you. Its not for most people.

However there are those that do succeed in crypto and trading and have a very good living. And this is taugh by experience which you can't learn in a book or have someone teach you.

Let me guess. Is this the Dual-X Sapphire R9 280X?

Yeah I had the same issue. Started to mine ETH with one years ago. All of a sudden came home with rig turned off. Started it back up and poof.

Opened it up and some MOSFET or some VRM had burn't out. So I desoldered it for fun. And started it back up and it worked. Undervolted it and underclocked it. A few days later another MOSFET went. So its been for parts ever since.

I gamed with it for a while and it was fine but as soon as I tried mining ETH, it completely went up in smoke instantely.

The hash change was mostly to lower the DAG because the network was getting 50% attacked. They figured many <4GB could be mining and secure the network. So this is why they forked to a lower DAG.

The algo however was also changed and the original Antminer ETH asics couldn't mine it until months later when some firmware fix was released. If they wanted to keep ASICs on, they wouldn't of made this drastic change.

What I don’t understand is her GF giving her that referral code even if she couldn’t withdraw from it. I mean usually a friend wouldn’t want to screw over another friend.

So either her girlfriend didn’t know it was a scam because she never tried to withdraw or there is something fishy going on.

Either way, in the future you need to google the site and make sure you read reviews about people who used the service before. And never use a service who was in operation for such little time.

I think one reason how many of these funds make money is that their time frame is much larger than most traders. Most traders who are trading Bitcoin usually trade the 5 minute chart and enter a trade for 1 hour and then they exit. Their profits are usually less than 1% or so.

With all these big funds they buy and hold for many months or years. So they don’t care if they bought too early and are underwater for a while, most retail people can’t do that.

So even if you paid the $500K, most likely the strategy wouldn’t work for you anyways.

Yes I find this is the #1 mistake that is made by most newbies getting into mining. They go on Craigslist and see some ASIC for cheap, they find out they can make like $5 a day with it while only costing $50. Only later to realize that it uses $10 worth of electricity to make those $5. Very common mistake with most people.

Can all the current ETH ASICs even mine ETC? Isn’t the reason why ETC forked their algo was to keep ASICs out and to lower the dag memory requirement?

It will be interesting however when the switch happens. We will see how many ASICs and GPUs actually are out there.

Will it be profitable to mine anything? Not at these prices. Etc price is way too small to make it mineable if all the hash rate points to ETC from ETH.

It’s hard to say what will happen. Some miners of small cap coins got lucky in the past and held and sold during strong bull runs for 10x gains however there are some projects out there that simply failed and they didn’t make anything.

If you are just mining with 20% it’s fine but keep in mind that there is no guarantee the coin will go to ATH again. Many alts can lose 90% and you think it bottomed but it loses another 90%.