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2321  Economy / Economics / Re: did the market react incorrectly to the recent Fed meeting? on: August 01, 2022, 02:39:03 AM
All I understand is that if you look at the yields they topped a couple of months back. And many are assuming that the fed will raise rates only till end of 2022 and then they be flat or even cut rates. And this is mostly why the markets have rallied.

Unless there is some drastic changes like some major lockdowns I don’t see the stance changing. Most likely inflation is at a top and will go down from here and fed predicts in a year we will get 2% inflation which is ideal. So stocks and cryptos should keep on rallying.
2322  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Asic miners vs GPU miners on: July 31, 2022, 04:06:50 AM
Depends where you want to mine. If it’s in your bedroom then I would go with GPUs because ASICs are crazy loud and you cannot sleep or live in the same room as them.

However if you got room in your basement and aren’t good with building computers then you should just go the asic route. Basically plug in a PSU and network cable and you are all set. Nothing else to configure except your pool info.
2323  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Another Scam site is up Beware on: July 31, 2022, 04:03:49 AM
Easiest way to tell it’s a scam is if the prices are too good. That is usually a dead give a way. A scammer normally would overcharge on their goods.

But in the future you just need to google the domain and you will know whether it’s legit or not. Don’t buy from any site until there are comments and reviews from other users who actually received a product.

This forum is a great resource.
2324  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin bull run 'getting interesting' as BTC price hits 6-week high on: July 31, 2022, 03:59:22 AM
Bitcoins rally I would say is weak to say compared to alts or ETH. However this rally is not a surprise. This is basically due to the fact that Bitcoin follows risk on assets like stocks and risk on assets have bottom when the bond markets have reversed.

Basically bond market traders know that the fed will ease on its rate hikes in 2023, and there is a good chance it might cut them. I think the hint was the lower oil prices. And it means inflation has peaked and hence why Bitcoin and everything is rallying.
2325  Economy / Speculation / Re: Your most realistic ATH prediction for the next cycle? on: July 31, 2022, 03:56:46 AM
For the next cycle will be maybe around $100K or so. Maybe $150K, we aren’t going to get a 20x type of move like we did in the past. The higher it goes the higher the market cap will be and hence why you can’t expect crazy $1M predictions and such.

Also keep in mind that it doesn’t matter what price it tops at, matters what your average is. Say it tops at $150K and you bought at $15K you still get a 10x in your return.
2326  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin on exchanges hit 4 year low - Glassnode on: July 31, 2022, 03:53:45 AM
This is not a good indicator. It has been falling for a very long time and if you actually took trading advise by looking at this metric you would be severely underwater.

I mentioned this many times before. The higher that Bitcoin goes the less people will keep on an exchange. Back in 2012 when it was like $50 a coin, people held maybe 50-100 because the value wasn’t that much. Now it’s completely different. Even 1 coin is too much to lose so people withdraw it to their cold storage. 
2327  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Good idea how to make profit on: July 29, 2022, 03:50:22 AM
Keep in mind that these trading firms aren’t always correct. Many took leverage bets in the past and went bust. This is how 3AC went under. They were known for being a great trading firm and later was revealed that they were nothing but de gens and used too much leverage in the markets.

They went under and took down many other platforms which lent them funds. It was easy making money in a bull market however when the markets turned they started to lose money like everyone else.
2328  Economy / Economics / Re: Yellen says economy shows no signs of recession on: July 29, 2022, 03:42:46 AM
Well right now if you ask around, most people will think the same. It doesn’t seem like we are in a recession. We got great job reports and shortage of workers everywhere. People are buying everything like crazy and over paying and causing inflation to go up even higher. People got jobs, businesses make money, everyone is happy. Doesn’t sound like a recession.

However the technicals suggest we might head into one because this path we are on is not sustainable. Inflation can’t go up 1% every month and unemployment numbers can’t be this low. Eventually it will crack, the question is when.
2329  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is the bottom in for BTC? on: July 29, 2022, 03:38:35 AM
The global markets have a stronger sentiment now . Especially how they reacted with the CPI and fed rate hikes recently. This is why BTC and ETH especially seems to be recovering.

However it’s hard to say if it’s the bottom. Keep in mind that next month is when MtGox coins will finally move. And depending on how many of those holders decide to sell we might get another run at the low of the year. Unless the distribution gets delayed again.
2330  Economy / Speculation / Re: Industry experts believes BTC is primed to hit $106,000 on: July 29, 2022, 03:35:06 AM
Yes it’s possible but most likely we won’t see ATH before the end of the year. We are getting many reports like this because of what is happening with the bond markets.

Many traders are expecting the fed to ease and cut rates in 2023. With oil being down, it seems inflation next month won’t be as high as before. And hence why the markets have small rallies including Bitcoin. But until they cut rates we won’t see new ATH most likely until 2023.
2331  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: 3 PSUs Single Rig on: July 28, 2022, 04:16:56 AM
Link doesn’t work but I am assuming you want to use 3 PSU for a single rig.

Can you do it? Sure. I’ve done it before without using any special devices.

Just make sure all PSU are grounded together somewhere and DO NOT mix any of the +12V. Which means if a GPU takes 2 connections then you must connect to the same PSU or else you will destroy equipment.

2332  Economy / Speculation / Re: Which crypto Youtuber called the top at 60-69k and told they would sell? on: July 28, 2022, 04:12:18 AM
When we were at $64K many people including myself assumed it was the top. But when we broke $64K and hit $69K it didn’t seem like the top.

Most knew the top would be somewhere close but not at $69K. I even assumed it would be at $75K but definitely not $100K. Hence why there aren’t too many that predicted the top correctly.
2333  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin 2017 : 20,000$ - Bitcoin 2022 : 20,000$ on: July 28, 2022, 04:08:56 AM
I remember back when we were at $60K. I told people to buy at 200 WMA which was like $25K. And people called me crazy.

Now it’s the complete opposite. When it’s a good time to buy people are saying Bitcoin is dead or that they will buy it at $10000 or something like $4000 instead.

Huge sentiment shift.
2334  Economy / Speculation / Re: A next generation "algo stable coin" is about to wipe out all stablecoins period on: July 26, 2022, 03:29:59 AM
You do realize that the reason why we are trading close to $20K instead of $30-40K is due to a stable coin which was suppose to be backed by Bitcoin, failed and caused all this mess.

Many were in denial and assumed it was a good idea to have a stable coin backed by an asset which is very volatile. So everybody staked their savings in it and then a horrible collapse happened.

It took out lending platforms, and many capital funds and numerous amount of people lost their savings.
2335  Economy / Speculation / Re: Finding Bitcoin Bottom via EMA on: July 26, 2022, 03:26:58 AM
By the way, that was not the bottom in 2015. The bottom happened sometimes in the summer when on Bitfinex there was a large stop hunt and it went to like $150-175 or so. I am too lazy to dig this up but I know this for a fact because I took a long somewhere in that area.

I have no idea why but there was some event and it caused a bunch of stops to get hit, broke the yearly low and quickly reversed after. Everybody was thinking that Bitcoin would go to double digits that day but all was well.
2336  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin declared ‘dead’ 52% less in 2022 despite bear market vibes on: July 26, 2022, 03:20:56 AM
This doesn’t really mean anything. It’s just journalism.

Basically they stopped calling Bitcoin dead because people don’t care anymore and aren’t reading the article. They only write article these days if they can only get someone to read it.

Nobody cares now whether Bitcoin is dead or alive, so don’t they print as much articles.
2337  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will the Mt. Gox coins affect Bitcoin’s price in August? on: July 25, 2022, 04:33:17 AM
They are not releasing 400K worth of BTC. When they got hacked they got somewhere like 850K stolen however after they shutdown they somehow recovered 200k or so. It was from some other hack but they somehow got 200K to give to the victims. The rest was never recovered.

They sold in 2017 to cover for fiat lost and why they only have 135K left. So whatever US dollar amount they lost, it was already sent to them. Now the remaining BTC they need to equally divide it amount those holders.

I'm pretty sure that isn't right.  No dollars have ever been distributed that I'm aware of.  If there were, I would have received something.  I believe I only had a few cents in there but I did have a decent amount of BTC. 

It's also worth noting that BCH is going to be distributed as well.  I assume most of that will be market dumped.  This is actually a positive in my opinion as much of that BCH money will flow into BTC.  I doubt it will be enough to counteract the amount of BTC sold, but it's something... 

Back in 2017 the trustee sold like 60K worth of bitcoins for fiat, where did that money go? My understanding was that it was to make everyone whole in terms of dollars on the day when MtGox went bankrupt. So 1 BTC was like $900 or so.

If you had 1 BTC they would send you $900. I never followed up on whether the creditors got the money. However why else would they sell 60 K worth of bitcoins if nobody received them?
2338  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analyzing Holdings By Entity Size on: July 25, 2022, 04:27:35 AM
From what I understand. 0.1 to 1.0 is generally the retail market. And whenever this peaks it means that lots of retail have bought Bitcoin, meaning it will top soon. Which it has shown in the graphs.

The issue I find with this is that 1 BTC back in 2014 is different than back in 2021. Since in 2014 when it peaked it was $1000 while in 2021 it was over 69x that pretty much. The value of these bitcoins compared to fiat are much different.
2339  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Are there any bots for traders like this ? on: July 25, 2022, 04:21:59 AM
So you basically want a bot which will read out certain events such as CPI prints, employment numbers, etc and take a trade based on that info?

A bot like this is very professional grade and you will also need a quick connection to your brokerage for it to work, since you are going to be trading against many other high frequency traders out there.

Generally you need to build this from scratch if you want it to work perfectly. Can’t buy such a bot for $50.
2340  Economy / Speculation / Re: Effect of Tesla bitcoin sale not significant on: July 25, 2022, 04:18:27 AM
Seems like his sell once again triggered a sell off. The weekend has ended and we start the week with a down trend again. Most likely we are headed to the $20k.

It’s crazy how his actions influence the crypto markets. First time he bought we went all the way to $60K. Then he stopped accepting BTC due to environment reasons and caused the first sell off. Now the news that he sold most of his position again looks like it marked a local top.

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