$200 is also about 100 times the bottom price.  |
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Anyone care to guess what price that $1 Million market order will be dumped at?... I'll throw $220 out there..
What and only take a measly $100K? That's leaving a LOT of money on the table. Yes, wire transfer over the sea, wait the hell out for verification, just to make....10% profit, kinda silly if you ask me. That's assuming they only do it once... As long as they want to keep the money in this economy, I am fine.  |
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Anyone care to guess what price that $1 Million market order will be dumped at?... I'll throw $220 out there..
What and only take a measly $100K? That's leaving a LOT of money on the table. Yes, wire transfer over the sea, wait the hell out for verification, just to make....10% profit, kinda silly if you ask me. |
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Bears chanting in chorus:" $200! Not possible! It must be Gox manipulation!"
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I don't know if this is mentioned before here, but Coinlab has updated their transition date: http://coinlab.com/transitionThey'll go live May 6. Together with the improvements in the MtGox trading engine, this will mean that Americans are able to deposit dollars within a couple of hours and immediately buy. This might have a positive impact on the market. It will also work the other way, bears can sell and get their money out quicker There are no bears in Bitcoin, that is a misconception. There are only bulls who decide to diversify their assets. It is actually a good thing when bulls are able to quickly buy fiat with their hard money, since it will increase trust. There are, but they trade with their mouths. |
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that's what I am sure Raphael is doing.
I'm not even sure coinbase is doing it properly, let alone bitfinex. Can't be sure, just because something is simple to do, that the site owners are doing it and are not making little mistakes like keys in unencrypted backups etc - there has to be some kind of certification. So while I did use bitfinex, I also did some research and found it's just another ran-out-of-basement business yet, so withdrew most of the funds just to be safe. Not saying it's evil, most probably not, and wishing it all the best, but saying "Without risk" does not apply here in the slightest. I know, but it's fair to say it's at least much more cautious and serious than the joke that was Bitcoinica, though still a long way from sufficient security. I don't think you need any encrypted backup of keys by the way, you just do several paper backups then no more need for a digital backup. |
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Little risk??? Do you remember what happened to bitcoinica, which by the way bitfinex stole the code from? NO THANK YOU
+1 that; much larger risk than just hoarding. At least with hoarding, you can be sure you have the coins, whatever the price. With bitfinex, you one day may have exactly zero capital. No insurance whatsoever, this has to be the riskiest idea here. Selling your house and going all in bitcoin is not even half as risky. It's a completely different kind of risk from Bitcoinica. Bitcoinica is one lazy-ass platform which doesn't even bother to use a cold wallet for reserve, that's how they got stolen over and over again, to secure your bitcoins, make sure most of your reserves is in the cold wallet and you only withdraw from it through offline transaction is enough, it's not too complex a thing, and that's what I am sure Raphael is doing. The risky aspect of Bitfinex is, of course, that the site owners may just run away with your money, so I am still waiting for them to get fully registered with the Hong Kong finanical service regulators to move any significant amount of fiats into their site. |
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Things will get worse before they get worse. Don't panic sell, if the price has peaked, you will get plenty of time to sell, just don't get too greedy and look to sell at the top.
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Elwar is our bullish trollmaster.  |
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Yeah, still a ridiculously bad bet that no one would ever take (limited upside and unlimited downside).
If you don't understand that, its not surprising you can't see an obvious bubble.
As I have stated it's a troll bet after all, designed to give you bears a reality check. If anything is ridiculous it's you bears' delusion to be able to buy back at low price lol. I see that you're probably too timid to give a target afer all, no surprise, as you have never been able to provide any falsifiable target out of those bubble talks, which are utter rubbish or FUDs for this reason. And as far as I am concerned, something most certainly in a bubble does not have unlimited potential downside for someone bet against it. |
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As I expected, no bear wants to accept my troll bet. When they need to put their money where their month is they start to get serious with things like odds and lose confidence with their "single digits" prediction, it's all fine, but hopefully they can also keep that in mind next time they start spouting "doom and gloom" bullshit again.
No, it's a bad bet with limited potential upside and unlimited potential downside. People smart enough to see that BTC is in a bubble are also smart enough to know a stupid bet when they see one. The classical definition of a bubble bust is the price plunges lower than where it started, so if you're 99% confident the "bubble" will bust, you must be at least 90% that we'll get back to that price point I suppose? in our case the rally kickstarted at $13.7, $10 is not too far off. And yeah, if you propose to change the target to $15 I am fine, someone get caught in a bubble and still make a 10% profit per year, much higher than almost any bank can give him, are you kidding me? |
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As I expected, no bear wants to accept my troll bet. When they need to put their money where their month is they start to get serious with things like odds and lose confidence with their "single digits" prediction, it's all fine, but hopefully they can also keep that in mind next time they start spouting "doom and gloom" bullshit again.
Ah the "put your money where your mouth is" fallacy. I tried that one with my bet too, but even I know it's bullshit. Some people just don't gamble, or they don't have money. I wonder why do they keep fooling around in the "Speculation" subforum then...  |
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And if there is one big seller with such a low volume of sales compared to the number of bitcoins, what happens then?
I hear that Mr. Big Seller is slowly collecting more coins.. he has been going at it for five years now! As soon as he gets to 400 million coins he is going to sell them all! So be careful. +21,000,000 And by the way. he'll just dump them into the buy side at whatever prices the buyers offer, and totally sold the last 399 millions of his coins, for which he paid $50 a coin on average, at $0.001, just to make his bearish cheerleaders happy. |
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As I expected, no bear wants to accept my troll bet. When they need to put their money where their month is they start to get serious with things like odds and lose confidence with their "single digits" prediction, it's all fine, but hopefully they can also keep that in mind next time they start spouting "doom and gloom" bullshit again.
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The problem with this theory is that there won't be 15k walls all the way up.
There are a lot of people with that much and more still. Your math sucks proudhon. |
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Dollars?
There are hordes of people still holding U.S stocks, treasury bonds, junk bonds, Fannie bonds, mortgage-backed securities. Even if you consider bitcoin to be something of absolutely no value at all, its fundamentals are still better than many of the assets I listed above, which have been bleeding since day one.
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Not just moving up.
You should watch closely when a downtrend is reversed to a uptrend, what we saw is a uptrend reversed to a downtrend, due to the lag many people could have entirely no idea what the current "fair" price is.
I see the same action during sharp reversals or otherwise. But never on a sharp reversal back up, which is what tends to happen after a sell-off. No, bid/ask are stuck higher so once the selling stops, we go directly back up. I have never seen the bid/ask stick lower on the way up. In fact, during the crash from $75 to $50, we saw numerous times people panic sold at significantly lower than market price, I don't have a screenshot, but did make a thread to troll about this behaviour. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156823.0Thank you. Exactly! This is what I'm talking about. The bid/ask is biased to stick higher during sell-offs. It sticks much higher than executing prices....small filler buys on the ask somehow keep the bid/ask from moving downwards in spite of asymmetric dumping. Why would bid/ask not move downwards with sells if the transactions are, in fact, occurring at lower prices? This is clearly an issue with Mt Gox and is almost never a product of 'panic selling'. Why does everyone assume a small correction/sell-off is a 'panic sell'? Ludicrous. No, these are simply orderly sell-offs (often on lowish volume) that somehow trigger lags, make bid/ask stick much higher than executions, and allow tiny buys on the ask to offset 100s of coins being sold with little bid/ask movement. I wouldn't be mentioning this if I saw this type of bias (reverse: lower bid/ask than executions, lowball filler sells, etc) on the upside, but I have yet to see it on the upside. Well, the volume maybe low, but the number of orders could be quite high, most of the panic buyers/sellers out there actually only trade very small volume. |
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I'll be watching the next time we move up to see if A) we lag, B) bid/ask stick 5% below current trades, and C) tiny fills occur at a 5% discount and keep the bid/ask supported at the lower level.
Not just moving up. You should watch closely when a downtrend is reversed to a uptrend, what we saw is a uptrend reversed to a downtrend, due to the lag many people could have entirely no idea what the current "fair" price is. In fact, during the crash from $75 to $50, we saw numerous times people panic sold at significantly lower than market price, I don't have a screenshot, but did make a thread to troll about this behaviour. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156823.0 |
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