Exactamente!!!!!!

Block congestion is a property of usage which generally speaking the bcash variants lack.     

Did the teams meet, too?     



 

Surely, I like your playing around with crazy-ass scenarios, but really??

Oh my!!!!!



OGs do not "panic sell."  Not based on anything close to those kinds of described (hypothetical) circumstances.



Helrow!!!!!!!!


Now you are talking!!!!!!  


Holy christ fuck!!!!!

Even jbreher beat me to this one.   

    
hahahahaaha (relevant part bolded for emphasis)

A bit much hairy, no?  

By the way, thanks for what you "do" share.    




Fuck, Toxic!!!!!  Y u b beating me to it?

I think that you are trying to disagree with the wrong person.... don't you know you are communicating with Hairy the mac "daddy"?

Anyhow, you are asserting the obvious.

Of course, 2019 is different from 2015 for all the reasons that you said and more... yet there is similarity too... current btc prices are already moving in a fractal that accounts for a lot of what you refer, which is more than a 10x stepped up fractal.   

Yeah, there could be a decent amount of frontrunning of BTC's price this time around, but there are also likely going to be decently large resistance points along the way that includes taking several runs at various price points, such as $9k or $10k and likely some other higher price  points too, such as $16k-ish.

It is my tentative theory that most participants here who have accomplished a high percent of their networth in bitcoin have reached such high percentage status because of bitcoin's price appreciation, rather than such high percentage being from making initial contributions.

Take me, for example, I had an initial goal to achieve a status in which I invested about 10% of my quasi-investable value into bitcoin; however, once I established the 10% goal, in about late 2014, I continued to contribute most of my free cash to BTC on a kind of dollar cost averaging basis - and through 2015, since BTC prices stayed decently low (largely in the mid $200s), it seems that my allocation into BTC reached about 13% to 14%.. and yeah, I continued to invest in BTC and I continued to consider that my investment into BTC was moderate because it was merely my spare change, no more need for feelings of FOMO because I had reached my goal and had a decently reasonable stake in bitcoin.

But then BTC's prices began to go up, and like you said, the proportion became much higher than what I had initially intended.

yeah, many traditional (and smart investors) would advise that periodically, any prudent investor should redistribute back to the original authorized ratios, which would likely result in selling off a vast majority of the BTC profits - and thereafter largely taking away from profiting from additional upside BTC price performance through a kind of overconservatism.

Accordingly, I considered that whole redistribute periodically philosophy, and I decided that it was a bit stupid - because I had already established my other (non-bitcoin) investments, and I was good with those investments.. so why should I take from my bitcoin value and reinvest into various items that I already considered to have enough of those investments.

In the end, I believe that my creation of a system to incrementally sell some BTC on the way up compensates for my ongoing refusal to treat BTC as some kind of ordinary investment and to reallocate back to the original amounts.  I have no problem with that reallocation approach with my other traditional investments, which are largely index funds.

So yeah, mindrust, the overall value of the btc portion becomes outrageously imbalanced, and sure there could be some justification to pull out some value and to re-align such value with the remainder of my assets, to some degree... nonetheless the extent to which each of us is going to take extreme gambling measures is going to vary - and maybe some folks, who are not like me, in terms of already having a decently large non-bitcoin investment back, are going to want to establish some of their diversification through some traditional investment vehicles (and I am not talking about investing in shitcoins for the sake of diversifying).

My post from 17 minutes ago did not really age too well.

In other words, she really does not seem inclined to stay down (below $8,300, for example)

Actually, since we corrected from the top of the current range, it seems quite reasonable that we could get caught in a $7,500 to $8,500 range while the bears and bulls work out which way we are going, which currently seems to be UP based on our current status, even if it could take a few months to work out.

On the other hand, since our correction down to $8k and currently less than $8.3k only happened yesterday, it might be a bit premature to figure out if there is at least enough market consensus to settle in this area for a while or if some more interim resolution needs to be worked out.

Any other guys besides me in this fantasy?

It's just you.

I am not going to be the one to suggest that gambling versus speculating versus investing are absolute categories, and your approach to the matter and whether you engage in incrementalism versus balls to the walls trading and leveraging are differing kinds of practices that are not all the same, and accordingly there exist extremes.  To me, it seems that jonoiv has a habit of engaging in a kind of extreme behavior, and I have seen him do it before.  This particular instance, he sold all of his BTC at $6k, whether that was .1 BTC (more likely) or 100 BTC (which he probably does not have anything near that amount), but the point remains that he is engaging in extremes out of hope to make a quick buck on a turn around.. yet that backfired upon him when BTC prices went up another $3k or 50% more rather than correcting, as he was gambling upon.

Stop misconstruing.  No one is asserting that the path is going to be without corrections, including acknowledging that BTC prices could go down before up.
 

Sounds like a stretch, but fair enough.  That kind of prediction is not beyond reason, except for the part that such culling "needs to happen," which seems to place too high of a certainty on something that is likely further from certainty than you are making it out to be. 
 

Who gives any shits?  We are talking about bitcoin, not your inability to focus... that causes you to buy shit coins (that may have happen to have been profitable for you).
 

What would I have been right about?  I am not asserting anything, except for saying that you seem to be placing too much certainty into outcomes that you would like, which seems to be pretty obviously causing a decent amount of stress upon you.
 

Well, you are going to be wrong when you make predictions.. Being wrong comes with the prediction-making territory.
 

Well, sure it is possible that this whole upwards price movement that broke above $4,200 on April 1 and has not really significantly corrected for any meaningful amount of time is a fake out or a bull trap...


Seems like a stretch of wishful thinking, and you surely are entitled to having your opinions and speculation about what is going on, even if such scenarios seem a bit far fetched, at least during our current BTC price dynamics - and maybe if BTC prices go below $5k, then I might come to give higher chances to your scenario, but it seems that even now, there is likely to be a decent amount of support between our current price of a bit above $8,400 and $5k.. so it will take a while to get below $5k, if that is where we are going.

Sometimes gamblers cannot help themselves or recognize their addiction to betting BIG.

Yeah right.   

A lot of us BTC hodlers wish that a lot of the altcoins will die, and many of us, just like you, recognize that almost all of them are overinflated and scams, but if you are betting your BTC stash on some kind of rationality or some kind of purging of shit that "must happen" then you are failing/refusing to accept a decent amount of the irrational reality of the world in which we live.

In this regard, you may be completely logically correct, but you are ignoring actual momentum and other phenomena that affect BTC prices, beyond logic (and beyond simple one cause explanations).

You have a skewed interpretation of my posts if you conclude that I am "uptalking the price." 

Just to repeat a bit of my overall thinking about BTC and short term price moves, yeah of course, I remain long-term optimistic and bullish about bitcoin, but rarely do I claim to have any high level of confidence regarding the short term price direction of BTC that goes beyond 55% or 60% if I am feeling really confident.  So, even if I express some confidence and I suggest a 60% chance of some short term move, there remains a 40% chance, in my own thinking, that it won't play out as I believe.

Furthermore, I have disclosed on a large number of occasions that I have a system of incremental selling of BTC on the way up and buying of BTC on the way down.  Yeah, I might tweak my system here and there based on short-term anticipations, but from an overall perspective, my tweaking of my orders (increments or amounts) remain very minor in the whole scheme of things, and really I am too chicken shit to make BIG bets. 

I can only recall one time that I sold a decently large amount of BTC (I think that it was around 10% when the August 2016 announcement of the Bitfinex "hack" was made) .. and such a sale of about 10% of my BTC stash scared me half to death.. and I was nervous for a very long time until I bought back within less than 24 hours... I don't even think I could sleep on it.  So, in that situation, I learned a lesson that I was not really psychologically tolerant of making such BIG moves and/or gambling with my BTC stash in such a seemingly BIG way.

Anywho, part of my point is that it seems much more coherent to me to appreciate folks who are valuing their wealth in BTC rather than valuing in dollars, which you seem to be doing with your short term gambling plays that don't seem to work out too well and from my perspective seem to be excessively risky and evidentially (from your own behavior) seem to lead to too much emotional attachment incorporated into your BTC trading/investing strategy.

Well, stop bragging so much and being so emotional, you diptwat.  I have abilities to forgive posters who act normal rather than pumping bullshit like you seem inclined to do (like you cannot resist).

It's not healthy to hold bitter feelings towards quasi-anonymous peeps on the interwebs.  



yeah.. you need help.  You seem to be way too emotional in both your trades and your posts.  Surely, there are some posters, here, who are going to be willing to hold your hand through some of this emotional turmoil that you are going through.  So, I do feel a little bit sad for you allowing your book to cause so much emotion upon yourself, but you are not the only person participating, reading or posting in this thread, so in my humble bumble opinion, situations like yours can and should serve as learning examples for others rather than a bunch of peeps just feeling sorry for you..

So fucking what? 

Who gives any kinds of ratt's asses about short term ups and downs in the BTC price?  It's a kind of inevitability that bitcoin is going to experience short term ups and downs, and any person who has been in bitcoin for any length of time should already anticipate such ups and downs, and even better if BTC hodlers were able to figure out strategies to protect/insure themselves from some of these kinds of inevitabilities... and sometimes even profit from such... rather than lose money as you seem to be inclined to do.  Pobrecito... 


Sucks to be you that you had sold way too many BTC and way too early.. Now you feel inclined to engage in downtalking the bitcoin price (and talking your book) because you got roached, and you hope and pray that you could possibly become "unroached" if fortune happens to be on your side (even though the odds do not seem to great, and you have missed a lot of opportunities by betting too early and too much).

it was fun while it lasted.

Bitcoin is now dead.  Sorry to say.. under $9k, so seems like we are crashing.

Sucks to be a BTC bag hodler..... 

Hopefully, you are not betting too much on that.

I kind of agree that BTC has to meet significant and meaningful resistance at some point, but if a lot of people (shorters) are betting on $10k not being breached, then it seems to me that too many stacking of bets in that direction creates fuel for $10k to be breached.. ... which might be premature, but seems that shorters and bear tears are contributing to such ongoing irrationality in bitcoin's ongoing upwards price movements.

So at some point the bears gotta get over their wet dreams of BTC's seemingly "imminent and inevitable" severe downward correction, and give into bitcoin's upwards power.. and at that point, she might be ready for the decently severe correction.      

Of course, he (jonoiv) was devolving into more and more stupid-ass and non-substantiated posts, but at some point, he went into a kind of full-retard and seeming to purposefully sabotage himself - like how long could he get away with cluttering the thread with his own string of posts?  

What nonsense...

Maybe his account was taken over, or could be that he went crazy about the futility of his own situation and his attempts to talk his book after admittedly having had sold his whole BTC stash at $6k-ish.. - which seems to be another example of a WO member (or maybe ex member?  look at BillyJoeAllen, too) that bets too hard in one direction (DOWN), without preparing for UP, getting "roached"  ^tm.  soon ^tm