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1481  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gox bizarrity.... on: April 08, 2013, 04:10:40 PM
And seriously, at this price point, 1-2 dollars of difference is nearly negligible, Gox fee allow would be more than 2 dollars if you want to daytrade.

$10 difference.....or 5+%. That is MASSIVE.



The wall height is there for you to check yourself. Also, when the lag is at it, who'll know what's the last trade price? People just issue market orders.

I guess your Occam's razor is left rusty at some hidden corner.
1482  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gox bizarrity.... on: April 08, 2013, 04:07:18 PM
And seriously, at this price point, 1-2 dollars of difference is nearly negligible, Gox fee allow would be more than 2 dollars if you want to daytrade.
1483  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gox bizarrity.... on: April 08, 2013, 04:06:16 PM
Random sample:

{"date":1365424996,"price":"189.1405","amount":"0.8","price_int":"18914050","amount_int":"80000000","tid":"1365424996388156","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask","primary":"Y","properties":"market"},{"date":1365424997,"price":"189.09268","amount":"1.1","price_int":"18909268","amount_int":"110000000","tid":"1365424997554403","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask","primary":"Y","properties":"market"},{"date":1365424997,"price":"187.99","amount":"30.04033432","price_int":"18799000","amount_int":"3004033432","tid":"1365424997647394","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask","primary":"Y","properties":"market"},{"date":1365425004,"price":"187.99","amount":"1","price_int":"18799000","amount_int":"100000000","tid":"1365425004881272","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask","primary":"Y","properties":"market"},{"date":1365425007,"price":"190.99","amount":"0.24937346","price_int":"19099000","amount_int":"24937346","tid":"1365425007417348","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid","primary":"Y","properties":"limit"},{"date":1365425008,"price":"190.99","amount":"5.40207185","price_int":"19099000","amount_int":"540207185","tid":"1365425008708984","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid","primary":"Y","properties":"market"},{"date":1365425008,"price":"190.99","amount":"0.0139258","price_int":"19099000","amount_int":"1392580","tid":"1365425008772286","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid","primary":"Y","properties":"market"},{"date":1365425008,"price":"191","amount":"7.89720235","price_int":"19100000","amount_int":"789720235","tid":"1365425008828811","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid","primary":"Y","properties":"market"},{"date":1365425009,"price":"191","amount":"0.24937346","price_int":"19100000","amount_int":"24937346","tid":"1365425009609284","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid","primary":"Y","properties":"limit"},{"date":1365425010,"price":"191","amount":"0.09974939","price_int":"19100000","amount_int":"9974939","tid":"1365425010206178","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid","primary":"Y","properties":"limit"},{"date":1365425011,"price":"187.99","amount":"1","price_int":"18799000","amount_int":"100000000","tid":"1365425011607438","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask","primary":"Y","properties":"market"},{"date":1365425026,"price":"190","amount":"0.75203021","price_int":"19000000","amount_int":"75203021","tid":"1365425026201414","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"bid","primary":"Y","properties":"limit"},
1484  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gox bizarrity.... on: April 08, 2013, 04:00:38 PM
Large spread occurs when price moves up too much in a day, because people have no time to pile up buy orders.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Never happens on the upside.

Watch closely next time.
1485  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gox bizarrity.... on: April 08, 2013, 03:58:46 PM
Large spread occurs when price moves up too much in a day, because people have no time to pile up buy orders.

Nothing to see here, move along.
1486  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: April 08, 2013, 02:51:22 PM
Do you get an eerie feeling? I do.

I mean, all those swanks, kindergarten plans about taking down the fiats, government monopoly on money, and one true money to rule them all, the revolution, are going to be somehow...executed?? This thing is serious? It's going to work out? For real?

Even a slight hint of such possibility is making me feeling....unprepared.
1487  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: April 08, 2013, 02:35:41 PM
Someone on the other side please show up, no one wants to watch a 200-0 ballgame.
1488  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: April 08, 2013, 01:53:22 PM
At 2 billion bitcoin's market cap is 6 times of Dwolla's transaction volume... Roll Eyes
1489  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Magazine - Why Bitcoin Is Just Getting Started by Trace Mayer on: April 08, 2013, 01:48:13 PM
For every practical purpose you can say that Bitcoin price can go up forever. Just think if al lthe money now in gold and tax haven accounts would come to Bitcoin. Bitcoin price would expolode to almost unimanigably heights.

That's not the problematic part to imagine, the problem is imagining the energy needed to run the network.

$ price - $ estimated energy costs (per day)

100 - 0.2 million
1000 - 2 million
10,000 - 20 million
100,000 - 200 million

and at the magic price of 2,760,000 bitcoin uses the total electric power generated in the world. ($0.1 per kWh, 2.3 TW total world electric power usage)


At this point we are probably building bitcoin miners directly at the top of oil rigs.

Of course they would cost so much to produce when their total value is on the same scale as the world's GDP(70 trillion dollars).

And it probably says something about the honesty of bitcoin as money.
1490  Economy / Speculation / Re: Money Flow on: April 08, 2013, 01:28:26 PM
Welp, we have reached $190/BTC which is outside the range of error for my working hypothesis. Which tells me that past price bubbles do not really have much of a bearing on the current activity. The tail for the probability for price growth is becoming longer, moving into rotation territory.

Feeling like doing a update? I want to see what it looks like right now.
1491  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: April 08, 2013, 01:20:50 PM
it just shows.. any publicity is publicity.. and still masssive gox queue the game is not over yet :-)

Anyone know the figures?
I'm at 9100 in the queue.
I need to find a way to get proof of residence without an address though.
Anybody know if you can get a mobile phone bill on pay-as-you-go? Tongue

Im 14k in que Sad

Your wealthy bitches. Tongue
1492  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bet: We will not see single digit bitcoin price in 2013. on: April 08, 2013, 12:32:37 PM
For those who remember how Matthew's 10k BTC (or more? I don't remember) bet went without escrow I encourage you all to use escrow for the bet.

If nobody learned anything from that prank, that will truly make me sad. Also, this bet is unfair to anyone but the person making it.

@OP: Use bitbet or something. The forum is not an efficient place to do this. I would implore everyone to use a trusted escrow.

It may sound unfair, but I also take a risk of paying out dearly if the price truly goes below $10, and the number of people betting against me is great.


How about betting something neutral, like a small gold coin?

Underpants are more neutral than gold coins IMHO.
1493  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bet: We will not see single digit bitcoin price in 2013. on: April 08, 2013, 12:30:34 PM

This is extremely unfair. If you lose, your maximum loss is 9.9999USD per bet. If you win, your maximum gain is infinity

How is it unfair?  The bears are SURE value will crash to single digits.  1 BTC for a sure thing is free money.  There is no risk of losing because they are positive value will crash.  Just ask proudhorn.

I don't know about proudhon, but I never said that. I'm sure it will crash, but whenever that is from 190 to 3, 9001 to 100 or 500 to 1 I just don't know.

That's the nature of hyperbolic bubbles you just don't know where it ends.

I remember you said something about BTC $4, LTC $1, and XRP $10 in 2014, not sure how serious you were though.
1494  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bet: We will not see single digit bitcoin price in 2013. on: April 08, 2013, 12:25:30 PM
For those who remember how Matthew's 10k BTC (or more? I don't remember) bet went without escrow I encourage you all to use escrow for the bet.

If nobody learned anything from that prank, that will truly make me sad. Also, this bet is unfair to anyone but the person making it.

@OP: Use bitbet or something. The forum is not an efficient place to do this. I would implore everyone to use a trusted escrow.

It may sound unfair, but I also take a risk of paying out dearly if the price truly goes below $10, and the number of people betting against me is great.
1495  Economy / Speculation / Re: 1500 GH bfl "out of stock" on: April 08, 2013, 11:28:17 AM
Can anybody confirm to me if they really have received $ 100 million worth of money in preorders?
1496  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: April 08, 2013, 10:58:32 AM
Hmmm...now here's a bubble that doesn't look to be crashing anytime soon.  Wink



Sheesh, put that shit on a log chart!

I know right?  Looking at this on a lineair scale is so uninformative...

this graph should be used for all retorts in the media when they talk about the coming bitcoin 'bubble' burst.  yeah, supernova baby!

That is some scary shit right there. The US is pretty much already bankrupt. Thing is, if BTC is worth $100,000 and the dollar is worth nothing then...are we all poor again?

Your government knows how to solve this problem:
1.Print 20 trillion more greenbacks.
2. Pay back the debt with them.
3. Mission accomplished.
1497  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin needs to do a "stock split" and add new (sub)names on: April 08, 2013, 08:15:49 AM
I don't want people who don't understand the basics of Bitcoin to invest in it.
1498  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bet: We will not see single digit bitcoin price in 2013. on: April 08, 2013, 08:14:47 AM
make the bet <$50 or <$75 and you might have some takers.... maybe even proudhon if he's any btc.

I don't expect to see any taker, instead I expect the permabears to"bet or shut up".
1499  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bet: We will not see single digit bitcoin price in 2013. on: April 08, 2013, 08:13:31 AM
For those who remember how Matthew's 10k BTC (or more? I don't remember) bet went without escrow I encourage you all to use escrow for the bet.

We can sort that out later, but first I need to see people taking the bet.
1500  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bet: We will not see single digit bitcoin price in 2013. on: April 08, 2013, 06:04:46 AM
Why all the hoopla, just put a bet up on bitbet - let anybody get in for whatever amount they want.

That's exactly what I don't want, make a bet just to win a tiny amount.
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