Poland also selected winner of National selection - it's Alicja Szemplińska with song Empires https://youtu.be/om91-RjTr8kShe has very strong voice and she is just 17 years old! Thank you. Very impressive regarding her age; I think Poland will do good this year. Not win it (around 100-ish for the moment), but maybe some nice H2H bets can be found. Is it already possible to bet that Germany will end up on the last place? No, not yet. But there surely will be such bet available, Bet365 always has a market for last place. And yes, Germany is a strong favourite for winning that market every year 
Lithuania is a whopping favourite now   Way too low imo, but will monitor. |
|
|
|
We have two new entries. For Ukraine it will be Go_A with the song "Solovey". It`s presented in ukrainian language: Go_A "Solovey"Slovenia will send Ana Soklič with the song "Voda", which is also sung in domestic language: Ana Soklič "Voda"
That ukranian entry I don`t like at all, even hurts my ears a bit tbh. Slovenia is quite nice, but probably a bit too boring for the audience. Both songs are non-english, this already decreases their chances of winning from a statistical point of view. Since 2000 there were only two non-english winners (Serbia 2007 and Portugal 2017). Three winning songs were mainly sung in english, but had elements from other languages as well. When having a non-english entry, it has to be very good to have a chance of winning. |
|
|
|
Laut diesem Artikel ist jetzt Moobpay der Sündenbock am Hack von Iota!? Nein, die IF hat Schuld. Hatten einfach keine Lust mehr zu warten: At the time of its integration into Trinity, Moonpay was only available as bundled code delivered by a CDN (content delivery network), so the IOTA Foundation integrated it as such. Although widely used in web technologies, CDN delivery has inherent risks. One of those risks is that the code expected by the device could be unknowingly replaced with code that is not expected. The IOTA Foundation flagged the risks involved and requested an NPM (Node package manager) to mitigate it. This was later published by Moonpay, after most of the integration work had already been done, but release pressure and human error added up to the Foundation not switching to the more secure NPM package prior to launch. This was the weakness leveraged by the attacker and one that could likely have been resolved if the Foundation had had a more extensive, cross-team review process for larger releases. Quelle: Trinity Attack Incident
Migrationsphase dauert ganze 7 Tage  Wenn man in diesen 7 Tagen keine Zeit hat, dann soll man sich eine vertrauenswürdige Person suchen, die die Migration für einen macht. Und wenn man diese Person nicht hat oder, noch besser, vielleicht jetzt gerade im Urlaub oder Krankenhaus ist, dann bekommt man von dieser Migrationsphase gar nichts mit und findet dann vielleicht sein Trinity-Wallet leer vor. |
|
|
|
Thank you for that detailed answer  Maybe it's not the best approach in the world, (...)
It's not necessary to be perfect in every area or have it all figured out to be successful. And being comfortable with what you do and how you do it, is maybe more important than seeking perfection with something you are not comfortable with. Regarding your tip, indeed, I was thinking to post odds in decimal format too, but the reason why I'm not doing it is that odds can differ from bookmaker to bookmaker and while we can pick odd of let's say 1.90 at SBOBET or Pinnacle Sports, a punter who wants to follow our tips, but is from US or another country that cannot access our bookmaker, will get a lower odd of, let's say 1.8 at 5 Dimes and he will be furious. We can lose a lot of potential members this way. I think it will be best for people that follow our tips to check if they can play our tips at their local bookmakers and what odds they can get them at. Not a good advice or modus operandi. If you play 1.90 on average and your customers (are only able to) play 1.80 on average, they might sit at a loss, while you are still playing profitable. The odds, and always getting the best ones, are crucial longterm - makes a huge difference. So when you recommend a 1.90, something like 1.87 should be the minimum to follow the bet. But the ultimate goal should be to get the exact same odds. You are operating with a yield like 5-10% (I think) and getting f.e. 5% worse odds on average makes your customers play with a yield of 0-5% only. And 1.90 to 1.80 is already more than 5%  |
|
|
|
This might be a bit off-topic, but gives some insight about the whole incident. The IOTA Foundation has released a three-part series, where they explain (in part 1) how an attacker could successfully steal around 8.5TI (around USD 2,550,000). This was the main issue: At the time of its integration into Trinity, Moonpay was only available as bundled code delivered by a CDN (content delivery network), so the IOTA Foundation integrated it as such. Although widely used in web technologies, CDN delivery has inherent risks. One of those risks is that the code expected by the device could be unknowingly replaced with code that is not expected. The IOTA Foundation flagged the risks involved and requested an NPM (Node package manager) to mitigate it. This was later published by Moonpay, after most of the integration work had already been done, but release pressure and human error added up to the Foundation not switching to the more secure NPM package prior to launch. This was the weakness leveraged by the attacker and one that could likely have been resolved if the Foundation had had a more extensive, cross-team review process for larger releases. Pretty careless and there is no way this should have happened. See the whole story here: Trinity Attack Incident |
|
|
|
Warum allerdings die Ermittlungen in dem Fall die rein technische Lösung erschweren/verzögern sollen, erschließt sich mir jetzt auf den ersten Blick nicht ganz.
Es geht doch zunächst mal darum, einen Snapshot zu machen, und den Coordinator wieder zu starten, wenn ich das richtig verstehe? Mit dem Snapshot gehen natürlich alle Daten verloren und nur non-zero Adressen bleiben bestehen und bilden den neuen Tangle. Es gibt zwar bereits Permanodes, aber wahrscheinlich würde das die Arbeit von Matula&Co erschweren. Ein "Standbild" erleichtert wohl deren Ermittlungen. Und die IF muss halt Trinity entsprechend updaten und ein Migrationstool integrieren, damit die User ihre IOTA sichern können, da man nicht weiss, ob der Hacker weitere Passwörter/Seeds abgegriffen hat, sich aber erstmal auf die großen Funds gestürzt hat, bevor der Tangle lahmgelegt wurde. Wie gesagt sollte IOTA hier genügend Manpower haben, um das in recht kurzer Zeit (und sicher^^) auf die Beine zu stellen, aber vielleicht auch nicht. Kann auch nur spekulieren, aber Erfahrung haben sie ja bereits mit so einem Migrationstool. Um es mal anders zu sagen: würde das Schule machen, könnte das dann im Umkehrschluss bedeuten, dass in Zukunft jedesmal, wenn jemand Anzeige bei der Polizei erstattet, dass ihm seine lausigen 3 Miota geklaut wurden, der ganze Tangle stillsteht? Würde einer gewissen Komik nicht entbehren  |
|
|
|
I too think, that you are doing a pretty good job. I went through your stats from previous years and it's looking rock solid, congratulations. Tbh your way of betting reminds me very much of a paid service that I was subscribed to some 12 years ago, but I don't think you are the same guys That Tottenham bet, though lost, was a good one I think and had some value. Maybe not 10/10 value, this is CL after all, but you can't win em all. You are betting on a lot of different leagues, which is something I don't like that much, but as long as you make your profits with it, all good. Your reasonings for your bets are a bit so and so, most of that information I can gather with a quick look at the table or recent matches. But I know, that it's hard to always give super sophisticated reasoning, especially when you bet a lot with gut feeling, which I suppose you do and most ambitious betting people do to a certain extent. You said you have 4 experts. Does each of them cover some leagues or do you all cover all leagues ? Do you discuss the picks to be published or can each of you publish his picks independently (if each of you is specialized in some leagues) ? |
|
|
|
Ein wenig problematisch ist vielleicht, dass der Aussetzer bei IOTA jetzt doch vergleichsweise lang dauert, das lässt für Anleger möglicherweise den Schluss zu, dass das IOTA-Team personell nicht besonders gut aufgestellt ist, wenn es um Krisenintervention angeht. Personellen Engpass kann ich mir eigentlich nicht vorstellen. Ich habe schon lange den Überblick verloren, wer bei der IF alles arbeitet und an was, aber in so einem Fall sollten die Leute, die Ahnung haben, alles stehen und liegen lassen und 24/7 an einer Lösung arbeiten. Und da sollte es in der IF mittlerweile genug Manpower geben. Ich glaube das Nadelöhr liegt eher woanders und zwar beim LKA Berlin. Ich gehe mal davon aus, dass derartige Fälle auch für die Beamten dort Neuland sind und daher die Spurensicherung etwas mehr Zeit in Anspruch nimmt. Zudem arbeiten die zuständigen Leute dort bestimmt nicht 24/7 und dass für diesen Fall eine "Soko Tangle" gegründet wurde, bezweifel ich auch 
Grundsätzlich nimmt die IF, und insbesondere David, den Mund halt immer sehr voll. Sie tanzen auf extrem vielen Hochzeiten, zu viel Hochzeiten. Vielleicht ist das nötig für die big vision, auf mich wirkt das aber oftmals sehr zerstückelt. Und ausserdem reden die auch viel dummes Zeug und/oder haben keine Ahnung. Dominik hat in 2017 gesagt, dass der Tangle Anfang 2018 production ready sein soll und erste use cases fertig sind. Zwei Jahre später scheint man immer noch da zu sein (gefühlt), wo man 2017 war. Nun ist Dominik meines Wissens nicht der Super-Dev, aber es zeigt, dass selbst die Founder irgendwo keine Idee von der Größe der Aufgabe hatten und mit rosa-roter Brille durch die Krypto-Welt marschiert sind. Das Trinity-Wallet wurde monatelang von Cyber-Security Experten/Firmen getestet und dann integriert man einen Drittanbieter und lässt dies nicht entsprechend auf Sicherheitslücken überprüfen. Irgendwelche Scammer/Hacker sind natürlich immer irgendwie einen Schritt voraus, aber manchmal mangelt es wirklich an Professionalität bei IOTA. Da fehlt irgendwo eine ordnende Hand ganz oben (Ralf Rottmann hat das bis zu seinem Exit sehr gut gemacht mMn) und wie wir wissen stinkt der Fisch vom Kopf. |
|
|
|
Mich würde ja mal interessieren, was sie unter "community validation" verstehen?
Wie soll das ablaufen? Die Full nodes müssen bestätigen, dass alles chico ist - das war schon immer so: The snapshot ledger is prepared by the IOTA team, then it is verified that it contains all the transaction history correctly by a number of nodes, and only when the consensus is that the snapshot data contains no errors the green light is given and every node out there will switch to this new ledger at the same time. Quelle: https://iota-news.com/iota-snapshot/
Bin schon gespannt, was mit dem IOTA-Preis nach dem Snapshot passiert, wenn value Transaktionen wieder möglich sind. Welch ein Desaster für die IF, aber tut denen vielleicht ganz gut. Auch wenn CfB behauptet, er habe damit nichts zu tun, bin ich mir dessen nicht wirklich sicher |
|
|
|
Surprisingly (to me), Lithuania is now the top favourite for winning the ESC  As I said before, it's a good song and I like it, but not good enough to win. And Lithuania isn't a country that tends be very successful at ESC. The introduction of a jury voting in combination with the televoting made things fairer, but you still need friendly votes to win and Lithuania is lacking a bit in that department imo. Since 2000 Lithuania has.... .....missed the final 7 out of 18 times (39%) .....been ranked outside Top10 9 out of 18 times (50%) .....only two Top10 finishes (11%) Maybe @LTU_btc could give some insight, If there is some huge hype in Lithuania about this song ? |
|
|
|
By now CfB has nothing to do anymore with IOTA other than his company using the Tangle - or intending to do so, but he will probably fork it. David Sønstebø and CfB have been bff for a long time until the moment they had different opinions about the future of IOTA. You can read what David has to say about that here.  https://twitter.com/c___f___b/status/1224039770499796993To my knowledge, this is the Bitcointalk account David is in control of: iotatoken
During the split-up drama between David and CfB some weeks ago, CfB posted some private (and most likely sort of confidential) conversations on his Twitter account and Paracosm Discord.  Source: Paracosm DiscordMost of these leaks are already deleted, but they revealed some shady things waiting to happen as you can see in the screenshot above. There are still unclaimed IOTA from the ICO and David wants (wanted) to give them to JINN. JINN is a private company in stealth mode, that was founded by David, CfB and some other unknown third guy. See more here. |
|
|
|
I assume these changes are already negotiated and only need to be officially included in the new CBA, correct? Yep. According to the article it still needs to be ratified, but should be a gimme. All involved parties seem to be fine with these changes. It feels like all of these upcoming changes are first and foremost financially driven, rather than the NFL actually fixing issues with the game. It's a financial win for everyone. Players on the bye-team would now get postseason pay for the bye (which they didn't get before) and overall players revenue share will increase from 47% to 48,5% (+5bln more). |
|
|
|
Two close games resulted in a life changing win for this Basketball fan 🏀
This seems a bit exaggerated When you are able and willing to spend 3+ BTC on a parlay in NCAAB, then a USD 100k+ net profit is probably nothing that is life changing for you. This dude might be a real crack in NCAAB, but in case of doubt, he probably lost 4 parlays like these before and now was able to break even. But you never know, certainly a nice and big win. |
|
|
|
Where does the misconception, that every (professional) gambler is filthy rich, come from ? I have no idea why you ask that question, I never said that every gambler are rich or should be rich. Ok, so 97% of betting/poker people lose longterm, which makes it 3% winning players. From these 3% maybe 0,01% become rich with it (what is rich in the end ?). Poker dudes are often more open (you could say bragging) about their wealth and what they made - and it's easier to publicly track. Betting people are more cagey. To name a few, that imo got rich with betting and come to my mind: Paulo Rebelo, Caan Berry and Sammy, who quit betting and is doing stock trading now or tried to do it. As I said, gambling for a living is a normal job with a, most of the time, normal income. You don't ask a plumber, if he got rich with his profession, do you ? There are surely plumbers, that got rich (building a big company), but most plumbers do not. |
|
|
|
|
Why do you think gamblers should (always) become rich ? It's a normal job. Most people don't get rich with their job, they just earn enough to survive and probably some more to go on vacation and things like that.
Where does the misconception, that every (professional) gambler is filthy rich, come from ?
|
|
|
|
Thanks for these. I think Anna Bergendahl has/had too many people on stage, for ESC there is only five allowed iirc. But anyway, both these songs don't need a big performance. The song from Dotter is not meeting my personal taste, but I can see it doing very well, so probably rightfully #1 for Melodifestivalen by the bookmakers.
Does anyone remember the winner from 2006 ? -> Lordi - Hard Rock Hallelujah I remember the odds being around 30-ish before the start. In a betting forum I frequently visited at that time, people were jumping like crazy on Finland to win. I thought they were insane, because never in this world I would have thought, that such a song could be successful at ESC (back then), let alone win it. But the performance was just awesome and the crowd was well surprised with such a unique entry. Everyone liked it, although most people might not hear this sort of music normally. |
|
|
|
Same question to you as well, if you have 80% win predictions then why are you going to sell it instead of make huge money buy yourself? 80% says nothing, if you don't know the average odds You can win 95% of your bets and still be a losing player. For the rest see here.
@OP Just linking to your website and expect people to make the effort to figure out themselves, is probably not what will help you a lot with getting new customers. Post free picks here for some time and make a weekly update for (all) your bets here - including staked, W/L, yield etc. statistics. It's some work, but will help in getting people interested in your service |
|
|
|
Ich muss jetzt aber ehrlich gestehen, dass sich der Sinn für mich nicht wirklich erschließt? Virtuelle Güter kaufen, handeln oder als Trophäen aufstellen konnte man ja auch schon in Second-Life, so ganz ohne Blockchain. Stichwort: True Ownership Bei Spielen ohne (das buzzword) Blockchain, bist du immer darauf angewiesen, dass die Entwickler nette Leute sind und keine bösen Absichten haben. Die Assets sind nicht in deinem Besitz, sondern lediglich ein Eintrag in der Datenbank. Sie können dir jederzeit weggenommen werden oder die Entwickler können einfach neue (deiner) Assets kreieren und auf den Markt bringen und damit deine Assets wertloser machen. Was Enjin und andere Projekte nun machen, ist, dass sie die Assets tokenisieren. Somit ist zumindest gewährleistet, dass diese Assets wirklich dir gehören, no matter what. Was dich aber immer noch nicht davor schützt, dass beliebig viele neue Assets erschaffen werden und deine Assets verwässert werden. Ausserdem besteht natürlich immer die Gefahr, dass die Entwicklung oder Support für das Spiel eingestellt wird oder, im schlimmsten Fall, komplett abgeschaltet wird. Dann hast du zwar immer noch die Assets, aber das zugehörige Spiel gibt es nicht mehr. Und dann gibt es Projekte, die noch einen Schritt weitergehen und nicht nur die Assets dezentralisieren, sondern das gesamte Spiel dezentralisiert ohne Server laufen lassen Hier ist eine Geschichte/Post vom Xaya CEO: here is the story, note that this was actually about another point - trust and decentralisation.
:
Since Everquest - I played MMORPGs mostly to "play to earn" (or whatever you want to call it) (they were actually funding my living expenses, holidays and funded an IT company I was setting up.
In the early days of Eve Online when i was hoping to get Rich in the next big MMO... I was transporting all my in game assets from one space station to another.. in a small/medium ship.
But I was attacked by the pirate group Moo. They blew me up and took all the stuff I had spent a long time building up.
I sent a petition in, telling them it's ruined my life and i dont' know what to do - kind of evil, and I was just trying my luck... they wouldn't budge on giving my stuff back (as I expected).
So I had pretty much nothing in the game.... the next day I decided to turn Eve on, and I logged into the Hangar bay of a space station..
And there it was.. some mining laser like no other. It was called a:
Nebilung Particle Bore Stream V.
A Tech 5 Mining laser of which no other existed in the game. Even now 15 years on (or whatever it is) there isn't anything like it. It was equivalent to having something like 11 of the best mining lasers of the time in 1. You could fit it to a heavy industrial transport ship and mine all day.
How did it get there? The only thing I could think of was the Customer Support or developers felt sorry for me... so they give it me.
I was too scared to use it in case of getting killed and it getting stolen (or destroyed).
I found someone to trade it with - I swapped it for 3x Armageddon Battleships. These battleships were worth about £300 each in Earth value.
I then sold the 3 battleships (for isk). And sold the isk.
I then found someone selling cargo expanders (20%+) for around £7 each - these were very very rare and he wasn't selling them in open channels - They were worth 20x that in isk (guessing but wont let it ruin the story :smile: ).. so i'd buy them and sell them for isk and sell the isk...
From this event of getting the Neblilung particle bore stream V, I probably "earned" about $20,000 in less than 3 months (not massive amount but at the time it was :slight_smile: )
Further down the line I found out that the guy who was selling me the cargo expanders was "dupe-ing" them using a trick in space were he jettisoned them and repeatidly dragged them back and forth between 2 cargo pods.
There were so many of these expanders in circulation their value had dropped signficantly...
Regarding the Mining Laser - This laser ended up with the biggest corp of the time, TTI... there was outrage on the forums about how they could of got this item that is insanely powerful (overpowered).
CCP eventually made a statement stating that - one of their polaris ships self destructed outside a spacestation and someone collected it.. and it also then became apparant that there were 2 in circulation. CCP took them off the players/corps and gave them a tech 2 blueprint for a mining laser.. this is what brought tech 2 mining lasers into the game.
I mentioned this story to Hilmar (CCP) at the blockchain gaming summit in Lyon.. and he knew all about it, except, he was told by his CS that what they wrote on the forum was the real event.. not that they just gave the item to someone for free.. He said he's been lied too.. but did see the amusing side of it as it was so long ago.
probably a lot of stuff online if you google "nebilung particle bore stream V"
Essentially I got an ultra rare item for free, and a load of other items values got screwed over in the space of a couple of months (due to so many entering circulation).
How does this relate to blockchain?
If you have a centralised game in which the assets are on the blockchain but acquired through gameplay (server/dev decides who gets the items) then this is open to corruption. Someone could give their friend or themselves ultra rare items for free and no one would know if it was acquired through time, skill, gameplay etc... essentially decreasing their value. A Priceless one of a kind item is going to be worth less once more start entering circulation.. is it fair that some dev can just cause that?
And/or if your assets are sold in a dev store (or presale) then no one knows if you are buying them yourself (essentially dupe-ing them, even if there is a limited supply visibly in the chain - more are getting pumped into the market, unfairly.
In the end, I think "how crypto assets are acquired" is an important subject.
We call it Human Mining and this is what we focus on in our games. Acquiring cryptocurrency / crypto assets through gameplay in a provably fair decentralised way. Or, distribtion of crypto through gaming.. so essential play to earn (but agree earn is a big word depending on how successful you are at making money playing games).
Players are buying others peoples time (and provable) in the game for the assets they acquired. not from a dev store.
If you add trust in the links at any point then it hurts the value. Obviously there is a balance.. if the game is shit because blockchain is slow, then this can have a more negative affect than sticking some trust in there Quelle: Xaya Discord |
|
|
|
I was wondering why Sweden is priced so low without any artist or song announced yet. Same with Bulgaria, but they have at least their artist announced. Now Sweden always has very good entries, Top10 is nearly a lock every year. They are probably the most successful country in the history of ESC (don't have any stats to back that up though). Their yearly Melodifestivalen is a huge thing and the final will be held in Friends Arena in Stockholm with 30,000 capacity for that event They are still busy with semifinals, but six finalists out of 12 are already known and I looked them up: Robin Bengtsson - Take A ChanceMohombi - Winners Anna Bergendahl – Kingdom comeDotter – BulletproofMariette – Shout It Out The Mamas with "Move" I couldn't find unfortunately. These are all very good entries, impressive. I like the one from Anna Bergendahl best so far, but there is one issue: Sweden only failed once to reach the final and it was in 2010 when Anna Bergendahl was their artist Regarding the quality of the songs so far, I think it might be worth a little punt in the dark on Sweden already. Pretty sure those odds will go down and have good value at a later point. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
