[Discussion & Betting] Eurovision Song Contest 2020 - CANCELLED

[buwaytress]

P.S. I happen to have my all-time fav Euro band representing Belgium (Hooverphonic). I've been listening to them ever since their cover of This Strange Effect hit my eardrums in the 1990s. So I actually have a band I support in this edition. If anyone wonders what 1990s triphop sounded like, without mentioning Massive Attack and Portishead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu2nSWSgFa8

They finally released their song (and video) and it is named, ta-da, "Release Me". It's a very pure and sad song, but quite nice, though I don't think it's winner material. Such songs tend to land somewhere in the 5-10 range. Odds went from 25ish yesterday to 60+ now. Belgium often has trouble getting past the semifinal, but the times they did in recent years, they had good placements.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAqjksxc4iA

Pretty typical of their latter singles, yeah, and I'm already liking it, but sadly, I agree with most people here and the commenters on YouTube that this is not going to win Eurovision... or even qualify for the finals. The type of music actually might not matter as much (judging from last year's winner, that even features some of the same lyrics as this!) but as commenters point out, the staging is a huge, huge problem.

Love Hooverphonic to bits and I'll still root for them but impossible to see them win this one. Thanks for the notify, Ty;)

[mu_enrico]

I couldn't open Fai Rumore, anyone experiencing this issue? Anyway, I found this video just in case the previous one stops working
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPv9ZPXmFWU

After listening to the updated songs list, I'd still pick these two songs:

My current basket, "Fai rumore & Shaj."

Here is the live performance for Shaj's lovers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CznVbKqA1Q

Very beautiful songs, I hope one of them would win. I couldn't understand a word, and yet I felt the songs resonated with my heart. lmao

[tyKiwanuka]

I couldn't open Fai Rumore, anyone experiencing this issue?

Yes, the links to the Youtube videos in the first post might have some geo restrictions. Eurovision didn't upload most of the songs on their channel yet, but I will keep an eye on that and put the correct links in once available on their channel.

As of now, in a very young and illiquid market, the favourites are:

Italy @7-8
Russia @11-12
Sweden @12-13
Lituania @12-13
Bulgaria @14-15

Here is the live performance for Shaj's lovers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CznVbKqA1Q

Very beautiful songs, I hope one of them would win. I couldn't understand a word, and yet I felt the songs resonated with my heart. lmao

Albania is around 200-ish, so very unlikely to win (as it stands for now )

[Saint-loup]

I couldn't open Fai Rumore, anyone experiencing this issue? Anyway, I found this video just in case the previous one stops working
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPv9ZPXmFWU

After listening to the updated songs list, I'd still pick these two songs:

My current basket, "Fai rumore & Shaj."

Here is the live performance for Shaj's lovers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CznVbKqA1Q

Very beautiful songs, I hope one of them would win. I couldn't understand a word, and yet I felt the songs resonated with my heart. lmao

It seems the owner has changed the access rights to private. Thank you for the new link but as you say for "Shaj" (Albania) watching the live performance is better to get an accurate judgment. For Diodato I think his performance is more spectacular on stage because of the strength of his voice and interpretation.

Yes, the links to the Youtube videos in the first post might have some geo restrictions. Eurovision didn't upload most of the songs on their channel yet, but I will keep an eye on that and put the correct links in once available on their channel.

Yes I hope they will upload them soon to be able to compare the number of views, likes and dislikes of the videos (even if they are influenced by the odds like a vicious circle) on the official Eurovision channel.

[tyKiwanuka]

I was wondering why Sweden is priced so low without any artist or song announced yet. Same with Bulgaria, but they have at least their artist announced. Now Sweden always has very good entries, Top10 is nearly a lock every year. They are probably the most successful country in the history of ESC (don't have any stats to back that up though).

Their yearly Melodifestivalen is a huge thing and the final will be held in Friends Arena in Stockholm with 30,000 capacity for that event They are still busy with semifinals, but six finalists out of 12 are already known and I looked them up:

Robin Bengtsson - Take A Chance
Mohombi - Winners
Anna Bergendahl – Kingdom come
Dotter – Bulletproof
Mariette – Shout It Out

The Mamas with "Move" I couldn't find unfortunately.

These are all very good entries, impressive. I like the one from Anna Bergendahl best so far, but there is one issue: Sweden only failed once to reach the final and it was in 2010 when Anna Bergendahl was their artist

Regarding the quality of the songs so far, I think it might be worth a little punt in the dark on Sweden already. Pretty sure those odds will go down and have good value at a later point.

[swogerino]

I agree with bookmakers so if I were to bet here I would bet on Italy.In the national Italian festival that just finished a few days ago the singer Diodato performed very well and I think it was the winner.I think the song was beautiful and I think it will be a winner in the Eurovision also.

[Saint-loup]

I was wondering why Sweden is priced so low without any artist or song announced yet. Same with Bulgaria, but they have at least their artist announced. Now Sweden always has very good entries, Top10 is nearly a lock every year. They are probably the most successful country in the history of ESC (don't have any stats to back that up though).

Their yearly Melodifestivalen is a huge thing and the final will be held in Friends Arena in Stockholm with 30,000 capacity for that event They are still busy with semifinals, but six finalists out of 12 are already known and I looked them up:

Robin Bengtsson - Take A Chance
Mohombi - Winners
Anna Bergendahl – Kingdom come
Dotter – Bulletproof
Mariette – Shout It Out

The Mamas with "Move" I couldn't find unfortunately.

These are all very good entries, impressive. I like the one from Anna Bergendahl best so far, but there is one issue: Sweden only failed once to reach the final and it was in 2010 when Anna Bergendahl was their artist

Regarding the quality of the songs so far, I think it might be worth a little punt in the dark on Sweden already. Pretty sure those odds will go down and have good value at a later point.

Thank you for sharing these links, my favorite songs are Dotter first and Robin Bengtsson in second. Dotter is also the favorite of bookmakers so it could be a good sign   The second one is Anna Bergendahl for them, as for now.
https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/melodifestivalen


Live performance of Dotter : https://twitter.com/CarlosRivasFdez/status/1226244263438143488

of Anna Bergendahl : https://twitter.com/CarlosRivasFdez/status/1226240898901725192

[tyKiwanuka]

Live performance of Dotter : https://twitter.com/CarlosRivasFdez/status/1226244263438143488

of Anna Bergendahl : https://twitter.com/CarlosRivasFdez/status/1226240898901725192

Thanks for these. I think Anna Bergendahl has/had too many people on stage, for ESC there is only five allowed iirc. But anyway, both these songs don't need a big performance. The song from Dotter is not meeting my personal taste, but I can see it doing very well, so probably rightfully #1 for Melodifestivalen by the bookmakers.


Does anyone remember the winner from 2006 ? -> Lordi - Hard Rock Hallelujah



I remember the odds being around 30-ish before the start. In a betting forum I frequently visited at that time, people were jumping like crazy on Finland to win. I thought they were insane, because never in this world I would have thought, that such a song could be successful at ESC (back then), let alone win it. But the performance was just awesome and the crowd was well surprised with such a unique entry. Everyone liked it, although most people might not hear this sort of music normally.

[tyKiwanuka]

Surprisingly (to me), Lithuania is now the top favourite for winning the ESC



As I said before, it's a good song and I like it, but not good enough to win. And Lithuania isn't a country that tends be very successful at ESC. The introduction of a jury voting in combination with the televoting made things fairer, but you still need friendly votes to win and Lithuania is lacking a bit in that department imo. Since 2000 Lithuania has....

.....missed the final 7 out of 18 times (39%)
.....been ranked outside Top10 9 out of 18 times (50%)
.....only two Top10 finishes (11%)

Maybe @LTU_btc could give some insight, If there is some huge hype in Lithuania about this song ?

[LTU_btc]

Maybe @LTU_btc could give some insight, If there is some huge hype in Lithuania about this song ?

Hype is big and fact that The Roop in National final got more votes than remaining 9 singers/groups got combined means a lot. It's very rare thing whem most people in my country are happy about what we selected for Eurovision Song Contest. But nobody is talking about winning Eurovision this year. People are realistic and finnishing TOP 10 would be good result.

[tyKiwanuka]

We have two new entries. For Ukraine it will be Go_A with the song "Solovey". It`s presented in ukrainian language: Go_A "Solovey"

Slovenia will send Ana Soklič with the song "Voda", which is also sung in domestic language: Ana Soklič "Voda"


That ukranian entry I don`t like at all, even hurts my ears a bit tbh. Slovenia is quite nice, but probably a bit too boring for the audience. Both songs are non-english, this already decreases their chances of winning from a statistical point of view. Since 2000 there were only two non-english winners (Serbia 2007 and Portugal 2017). Three winning songs were mainly sung in english, but had elements from other languages as well. When having a non-english entry, it has to be very good to have a chance of winning.

[bullrun2024bro]

Surprisingly (to me), Lithuania is now the top favourite for winning the ESC

Is it already possible to bet that Germany will end up on the last place? No matter which singer or band we nominate this year, I am pretty sure it will be as bad as last year. Do you guys remember? S!sters with their song Sister? Wow, Jesus that was horrible to watch. I don't recommend to look it up on YouTube. You will lose a few minutes of your lifetime  . The last German song I really liked was Satellite by Lena Meyer-Landrut, who won the ESC in 2010.

My overall favourite song within the past years was Fuego by Eleni Foureira in 2018. That one was dope  .

[LTU_btc]

We have two new entries. For Ukraine it will be Go_A with the song "Solovey". It`s presented in ukrainian language: Go_A "Solovey"

Slovenia will send Ana Soklič with the song "Voda", which is also sung in domestic language: Ana Soklič "Voda"


That ukranian entry I don`t like at all, even hurts my ears a bit tbh. Slovenia is quite nice, but probably a bit too boring for the audience. Both songs are non-english, this already decreases their chances of winning from a statistical point of view. Since 2000 there were only two non-english winners (Serbia 2007 and Portugal 2017). Three winning songs were mainly sung in english, but had elements from other languages as well. When having a non-english entry, it has to be very good to have a chance of winning.

Slovenia song is just not my taste. And about Ukraine song, such voice was intentional as I read. It's called white voice, technique of singing traditional folk songs in Eastern Europe - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_voice
Poland also selected winner of National selection - it's Alicja Szemplińska with song Empires https://youtu.be/om91-RjTr8k
She has very strong voice and she is just 17 years old!

[tyKiwanuka]

Poland also selected winner of National selection - it's Alicja Szemplińska with song Empires https://youtu.be/om91-RjTr8k
She has very strong voice and she is just 17 years old!

Thank you. Very impressive regarding her age; I think Poland will do good this year. Not win it (around 100-ish for the moment), but maybe some nice H2H bets can be found.

Is it already possible to bet that Germany will end up on the last place?

No, not yet. But there surely will be such bet available, Bet365 always has a market for last place. And yes, Germany is a strong favourite for winning that market every year


Lithuania is a whopping favourite now



Way too low imo, but will monitor.

[Saint-loup]

Surprisingly (to me), Lithuania is now the top favourite for winning the ESC



As I said before, it's a good song and I like it, but not good enough to win. And Lithuania isn't a country that tends be very successful at ESC. The introduction of a jury voting in combination with the televoting made things fairer, but you still need friendly votes to win and Lithuania is lacking a bit in that department imo. Since 2000 Lithuania has....

.....missed the final 7 out of 18 times (39%)
.....been ranked outside Top10 9 out of 18 times (50%)
.....only two Top10 finishes (11%)

Maybe @LTU_btc could give some insight, If there is some huge hype in Lithuania about this song ?

The song is maybe well appreciated in the eastern countries. We know east european countries have a big weight on the final score with all the points they bring in their bags  

[tyKiwanuka]

One of these songs will be the entry for Romania, all performed by Roxen:

Alcohol You
Beautiful Disaster
Cherry Red
Colors
Storm

People seem to like the songs and style and Romania has been bought down from around 30 all the way down to 9.6, which makes them second favourite after Lithuania for now. In general there is rather a lot of action in the outright market already. Volume is stiill small, but quite some volatility.

Slovenia song is just not my taste.

Looks like you are not the only one; Slovenia has highest winning odds of all participants with 440+.

Thank you for sharing these links, my favorite songs are Dotter first and Robin Bengtsson in second. Dotter is also the favorite of bookmakers so it could be a good sign 

Looks very likely now, that Dotter will win Melodifestivalen. While it was a close-ish race some days ago, the odds have shifted towards her now. I still like the song from Anna Bergendahl better, but anyway

[tyKiwanuka]

Germany has revealed their entry today and it will be Ben Dolic with the song "Violent Thing": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4swmQ7YITug

Dolic has slovenian roots and finished in second place in "The Voice of Germany" in 2018. Germany strong favourite for me - but only for last place. Such a crap song.


UK will send James Newman with "My Last Breath": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iS-lV909T4

A bit better than the german entry, but poor as well imo.


Israels entry will be chosen among these 4 songs, all from Eden Alene:

Feker Libi
Rakata
Roots
Savior In The Sound

Hmm

[Saint-loup]

Thank you for sharing these links, my favorite songs are Dotter first and Robin Bengtsson in second. Dotter is also the favorite of bookmakers so it could be a good sign 

Looks very likely now, that Dotter will win Melodifestivalen. While it was a close-ish race some days ago, the odds have shifted towards her now. I still like the song from Anna Bergendahl better, but anyway

We'll see in one week now, but I'm pretty confident for her 

Germany has revealed their entry today and it will be Ben Dolic with the song "Violent Thing": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4swmQ7YITug

Dolic has slovenian roots and finished in second place in "The Voice of Germany" in 2018. Germany strong favourite for me - but only for last place. Such a crap song.


UK will send James Newman with "My Last Breath": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iS-lV909T4

A bit better than the german entry, but poor as well imo.

Amazing entry in the top 10 for Germany as of today.
Personally I don't like very much the song, for me it's just a "Justin"(Bieber/Timberlake) song, not very original and not my cup of tea. Moreover at some moments his voice is autotuned in the video, how he will do that on stage?
I don't think he's gonna stay in the bookmakers top ten very long.
https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision
http://archive.is/rwZZw

[tyKiwanuka]

Amazing entry in the top 10 for Germany as of today.
Personally I don't like very much the song, for me it's just a "Justin"(Bieber/Timberlake) song, not very original and not my cup of tea. Moreover at some moments his voice is autotuned in the video, how he will do that on stage?
I don't think he's gonna stay in the bookmakers top ten very long.

German media and experts of course said, that it's a very good and modern song bla bla bla, but just because they have to German ESC fans are a bit disappointed, because it's yet another song, that will have no chance to be placed at the top. I am surprised the odds for Germany haven't gone up that much yet.


Belarus will send VAL with "Da Vidna": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jmh40xnxciM

Sung in belarusian, no spectacular performance and very random song, so I think Belarus will have a very hard time to survive the semifinals.

[Saint-loup]

Amazing entry in the top 10 for Germany as of today.
Personally I don't like very much the song, for me it's just a "Justin"(Bieber/Timberlake) song, not very original and not my cup of tea. Moreover at some moments his voice is autotuned in the video, how he will do that on stage?
I don't think he's gonna stay in the bookmakers top ten very long.

German media and experts of course said, that it's a very good and modern song bla bla bla, but just because they have to German ESC fans are a bit disappointed, because it's yet another song, that will have no chance to be placed at the top. I am surprised the odds for Germany haven't gone up that much yet.


Belarus will send VAL with "Da Vidna": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jmh40xnxciM

Sung in belarusian, no spectacular performance and very random song, so I think Belarus will have a very hard time to survive the semifinals.

omg what's that? They're trying to compete for the last place? 
Several countries will announce their candidate this evening : Estonia, Moldova, Croatia and Iceland.