I lease my Mercedes to be honest, I like to drive a new car because I’m a snob. No worse investment (ok maybe BCH or BSV are worse  ) than buying a brand new car yourself, as soon as you drive it off the forecourt it starts losing money. Not many people own a car any way, they have finance on it which isn’t much better than leasing. I suppose you have the car fully paid off at the end as an asset but then it’s old & lost loads of value any way. Just my opinion though. I will concede that cars are an expensive habit. I have owned cars since I was 15. Admittedly, my first few cars were not very good cars, but still they are also expensive to maintain. Regarding buying new cars, and especially luxury cars, they tend to lose the vast majority of their value in the first three years, so if you buy three year old cars, they might still be like new (depending on how they were driven, of course), but have already done their most dramatic depreciation. By the way Toyotas and Hondas don't tend to depreciate as much as Mercedes and BMWs. |
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[edited out]
I hope the expectation of next halvening will make some impact on the investors who are waiting long for the right time to come. Just start speculating it and it will bring some highs.Hopefully. #MotivationalMonday  Over the years, I have come to accept that we should not be waiting for some bull whale(s) to save us from whatever bearwhale manipulation is going on and also the overall momentum of the market that also requires some passage of time to play out where the bearwhales realize that their attempts to push the BTC price down is no longer working. No one really knows when this point is going to be exactly, but after a while there just are not enough coins, shorting tools, etc available to keep the price down.. and the easiest direction becomes UP. Don't get me wrong, I want the BTC price to go up as much as anyone, but sometimes there will be dynamics that are the opposite of what seems should be happening, including the fact that the actual BTC price bottom for this cycle might not be in, and I am still placing such probability at 52% that the bottom is not "in" as much as I would like for that outcome to NOT happen. In another recent post, I stated my three scenarios in which I will change my assessment and start to believe that the odds are greater that the bottom is in. |
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Perhaps my guideways are not as rigid as you might think (or I have portrayed).
I have picked a number as a signpost but as we both know on any given day the actual price can be at least 20% higher or lower (or both) without breaking a sweat.
I know. I have a tendency to want to beat up on your presentations for being correct too often, and part of the reason that you seem to end up correct is that you tend to have a sufficient amount of fractal pattern flexibility - so I concede about your flexibility..  |
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Would you say, hypothetically, if BTC prices are able to convincingly break above $4k, then 1) such prices will not necessarily get repelled at the $4,200 level again, or 2) maybe have the next challenge at $4,500 or 3) there is no real resistance until getting in the upper $4k arena or sub $5k arena?
Hitting and holding $4k will be a huge victory but nothing will be easy after that either. I have previously said it will take until December for us to reach and hold $6k and we will have to fight every step of the way. This will be a war of attrition and accumulation. It will not be pretty but it will be upward on average. $4K or $6K by Decemeber 2019,the price will reach new heights on the next halving so we need to ready for the another bull run before end of 2020. Am I right? New ATHs have not come before or even at the time of the halvenings, but several months (and maybe even more than a year afterwards). I doubt that this upcoming May 2020 halvening is going to be much different in that regard. There is a kind of expectation that the halvening should be "priced in" because it is a known event, and should even really be a known dynamic; however, there seems to be so much god damned stupidity out there, not only in terms of so called smart-money, but also the population and even the spreading of opposite FUD. So there continues to be a dynamic of ongoing attempts to manipulate BTC prices as low as possible and for as long as possible (which I suppose could be considered kind of smart in and of itself for the smarter bearwhales to accumulate BTC); but such strenuous downward BTC manipulation tendencies has tended to exacerbate pushing the price way below value and then a subsequent violent and seemingly unrealistic reaction in the opposite direction causing FOMO, pumping and just upwards price movements beyond anything close to reasonable. Of course, I am always receptive to possibilities that history is not going to repeat itself, but ironically, with the passage of time, we are likely going to find ourselves experiencing a similar pattern as the historical ones. The longer term BTC HODLers will continue to b surprised while at the same time NOT being overly surprised, while at the same time we won't be as surprised as the folks who are way newer to the market who will be exacerbating the FOMO, including the previous BTC no coiners and BTC naysayers who will likely be more surprised than long term BTC HODLers because they will be buying on the way up.. and long term HODLers will be continuing to struggle with some dilemma regarding when exactly to sell, and how much to sell, if any. |
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Would you say, hypothetically, if BTC prices are able to convincingly break above $4k, then 1) such prices will not necessarily get repelled at the $4,200 level again, or 2) maybe have the next challenge at $4,500 or 3) there is no real resistance until getting in the upper $4k arena or sub $5k arena?
Hitting and holding $4k will be a huge victory but nothing will be easy after that either. I have previously said it will take until December for us to reach and hold $6k and we will have to fight every step of the way. This will be a war of attrition and accumulation. It will not be pretty but it will be upward on average. O.k. Fair enough. That's in the ballpark of my thinking too in terms of the kind of expected price battle on the way up between here and $6k-ish, but I would like to think that I am less wedded than you regarding any kind of exacting timeline within a kind of fractal comparison of how long the battle will take. As far as I am concerned, the fractal comparisons can take a flying hike (look at me, G-rated language) - though I will still likely continue to ask you, from time to time, about whether you consider that we are still within the parameters of the fractal, as you see it, especially since so far in this current price correction cycle there have been considerably decent and eerily comparable BTC price performance within this correction cycle as compared with the last one. In other words, I hate relying upon such similar performance (and expectations of such), even though such BTC price direction largely seems to be continuing to take place in that pattern following way. |
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I wonder how much anxiety there is about breaking above $4k?
Odds seem in favor of it, currently.
On the other hand, should we just be taking up other hobbies for a few months.. and maybe we bounce in a kind of narrow range? What would that range be? $3,600 to $4,200?
It seem to me that there is a desire to bounce between $4,000 and $4,500 - your results may vary.
........... aaaaaaaannnnnnnddddddd the next 12 hours are critical.
The bearline sits at $4k. We won’t take $4k without a fight. But we have a golden cross on the 50 / 100 MA to lift us into the fight. (Crossing of yellow and orange lines).  Would you say, hypothetically, if BTC prices are able to convincingly break above $4k, then 1) such prices will not necessarily get repelled at the $4,200 level again, or 2) maybe have the next challenge at $4,500 or 3) there is no real resistance until getting in the upper $4k arena or sub $5k arena? Even though I recognize that you have been decently successful with you lines on a chart, I don't necessarily want to get caught up with those lines, too much.. but anyhow, I still come up with tentative theories, and currently, I am still thinking that there is decent chances that we experience significant resistance at each of the 3 points that I describe above (assuming that we end up breaking through $4k in the coming 12 to 48hours). My theories are based on quasi-SOMA principles (term kind of trade marked by d_eddie, of course). |
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I saw this one the other day, and I did not want to say anything.  Looks like a wind-up catapult. Trebuchets are better, but the increased acceleration could burst the blood vessels in your eyes, before you leave the sling. Don't try this at home. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mo_oigyFlTAThe acceleration is so great, that it can extinguish a burning piano, before it leaves the sling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rn8jBzsg9UI built a small one, they are very accurate, once you get the sling length/pin release worked out, counterweight and projectile weight dialed in. I can hit a monitor with a marble 4 cubes away, 10 out of 10 tries. GTFO with your nerf guns, I have a siege weapon... Oh my!!!! I think that I value my life (even if I were younger and more risk-taking) way too much to take any of those kinds of risks. Probably, I am in the 99% in that regard. Really looks dangerous, that Trebuchets, and the amount of power that seems to be generated (even if you assert that their throw is quite accurate). |
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I wonder how much anxiety there is about breaking above $4k?
Odds seem in favor of it, currently.
On the other hand, should we just be taking up other hobbies for a few months.. and maybe we bounce in a kind of narrow range? What would that range be? $3,600 to $4,200?
It seem to me that there is a desire to bounce between $4,000 and $4,500 - your results may vary.
........... aaaaaaaannnnnnnddddddd the next 12 hours are critical.
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JJG goes surfing  I saw this one the other day, and I did not want to say anything. |
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No.
You rebel (or should I say "cunt"?). You backed up your point, very clearly and unambiguously.  |
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wait wat. surely 'cunt' is pejorative in all flavours of English bar some Aussie banter?
I suppose that is part of my point. I am not Aussie.., and admittedly, I don't use the word cunt too often, yet I still believe that there are a variety of contexts in which cunt could use the expression as a kind of endearment - in the aussie fashion, even if neither I nor my audience is aussie. Of course, if the tone or context is not right, women would be more sensitive than men to a descriptive usage directed towards them as endearment, unless in the context it is obviously a true descriptive statement that fits behavior, could even be humorous to really make the point. |
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Actually a lot of those words are actually just what the rest of the world calls things rather than using Americanisms. Serviettes are serviettes in England, Kenya, Mexico, Canada, and most English-speaking countries around the world. Only Americans call them "paper napkins". Bacon from the back (loin) of the hog is called "back bacon" in most places. Only in the USA is it called Canadian bacon. Some Canadians call it "peameal bacon". The Brits often call side bacon "streaky bacon". Only in the USA is synthetic cheese-like garbage called "American cheese". The rest of the world calls it "process cheese". In most of the world "football" is played with the feet, not the hands. Exceptions are Canada and Australia. Funny language, English. _____ As for the word "goof" meaning a lowlife, it's apparently used in the USA as such (although perhaps mostly in prison) but with a slightly narrower definition. Here in Canada it is used for pedophiles, informers, rapists and other unreliable or undesirable scum. In the USA it seems to be used mostly to describe pedophiles who prey specifically on young boys. Aren't words fun?  I still believe that calling you a cunt could be a good thing, even though, from my personal perspective, there seems to be a quite a bit of "me too" over-sensitivity about that word in some places... Also, from my perspective, a bit of oversensitivity about the use of retarded. So, even apart from cultural differences, context and intent matters too. |
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first time that I ever heard about the kind of usage of goofball that you refer to, so seems to me that your interpretation must be an extreme regionalism or perhaps a small group of your friends You made me look it up. https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=GoofDefinition #2 places it firmly as a Canadianism but the other similar definitions are less specific and I was led to believe it was used in this sense in the USA as well. Maybe south of the border only criminals use it. It's more common in general use here. It obviously has its roots in the prison system but it was first brought to my attention when I was playing in bars years ago. Someone told me it was an acronym for Go On Or Fight. It is always taken very seriously. To not respond immediately is considered a sign of weakness and cowardice. As for "a small group of my friends", I don't generally associate with the type of people who use that expression unless I'm being paid. Just thought I'd give you a heads up. (Damn, is "heads up" another Canadianism, based on hockey?)  Fair enough. I still don't really see any problem with my usage.. and even calling someone goofy tends to be a lot nicer than calling them stupid or retarded.. but anyhow, I suppose it can depend upon context, too. From your link and explanations, I recognize that in certain circles such an expression could be misunderstood.. but it still seems kind of niche.. so I still don't see why anyone here should get MOAR offended by either my past usage in the way that I had attempted to use it or my likely continued future usage of such term based on what appears to be kind of obvious general usage. Sure, as I already suggested, there already exists a kind of intention from me to be aggressive with such namecalling and to insult by the common usage meaning of "goofball" or whatever other variant that I was using that had "goof" as the root word... and further, as many of us recognize, there is already an internet culture that causes some kinds of name calling that would less likely take place in the meat space - especially if the parties are expecting to have a continued relationship with someone. In the meat space, we might be able to engage in avoidance or just not be in the same circles with certain ideas... also, sometimes in the meat space trollers will frequently get shut down fairly quickly by the whole group too, if they were to start spouting out political and racial agendas in a group that is talking about bitcoin, for example. Many of us likely realize that on the internet, sometimes, there is a need to be more assertive in certain circumstances to make a point.. and of course, there is discretion there, too, and the dynamics on the internet are different from the meat space, too. Of course, sometimes on the internet, we will be kind of stuck with each other, which also might happen in certain meatspace circumstances as well, for example relatives at a christmas party, a wedding, a funeral, a picnic or some other similar family gathering. |
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This week in crypto:
I wonder if Trollgoossens has comprehended yet that bitcoins don't actually exist and you're paying $4000 for a timestamp. This is a retarded point, roach. Bitcoins don't exist.. what a stupid-ass level of existentialism you are expressing, and I did not even know that you did weed or whatever it is that you been smoken to come up with that level of lameness. |
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Is there a BTC/USD wall observing connection, goofball?
cue incoming flame in 3...2... Another day of JayJuanGoyim, Tim Draper, and Mike Novogratz sitting around jacking off to imaginary, valueless shitcoins. Aren't we talking about bitcoin, here? You must have gotten the wrong memo if you consider bitcoin to be a shit coin. Perhaps you should go to one of the many alt coin threads. You must be lost.... hahahahaha... already knew that you were lost because you sold all your bitcoins in the sub $700 arena.. and bought gold and silver with those proceeds and failed/refused to hedge your bets... go figure?... and you been trolling and lost ever since.. and seemingly bitter and resentful about your decision, too... .. hahahahahaha.. .pobrecito..... that's why there is a term named after you. Eg.. "getting roached" |
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Is there a BTC/USD wall observing connection, goofball?
I've seen you throw the G word around a number of times. Are you aware how offensive it is to many people? Where I live it is considered a challenge to fight. It is a word used to describe rapists, informers, pedophiles, etc. It's the ultimate insult. I use such variations of that expression to contain ideas like silly, goofy, retarded or stupid. It is meant to be somewhat insulting because I am suggesting that the person is engaging in some kind of purposeful behavior.. such as in the case of Ibian bringing up racial superiority bullshit and suggesting impurities with the mixing of races and other baloney that seems hardly even relevant to this thread, except that he wants to have a platform for baloney talk. Anyhow, first time that I ever heard about the kind of usage of goofball that you refer to, so seems to me that your interpretation must be an extreme regionalism or perhaps a small group of your friends? So does not really seem to apply either to how I am using it or to all of a sudden consider some kind of novel meaning to otherwise commonly understood usage. In other words, I am neither convinced that my usage is that level of offensive on a general usage level nor dissuaded from any desire to use it, as I consider to be appropriate, such as in the cases that I already have used such expression variations.. |
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So in the last issue of We Are Completely Fucked I opined that humans are a lot like rats, and we will probably end up the same way. Well, I think it's a step worse than that. It's not just that our subconscious is scanning for population density. That might be one of the main issues but still only the most obvious one. Every negative psychological issue is on the rise. People are more lonely, more suicidal, more narcissistic, the economy seems to be headed towards an inevitable collapse and the people in charge know it's happening so why are they, by all appearances, deliberately doing it? There have been more than 50 million US abortions since it was made legal and they now want to kill actual live babies, we are inviting hostile foreigners and on and on and on. Every social ill you can imagine all have one thing in common: It is Bad For Reproduction. And that just might be the key to it all. Our emotions and instincts are still wired to a hunter-gatherer environment. We can produce hundreds, thousands of times as much food as in ancient times. But the emotional part of our brain doesn't know that. It still thinks that There Are Not Enough Bears in the Woods for All Those People. Even if half of them die hunting down those bears. Everything in psychology is a spectrum. Thus I propose that what we call the survival instinct is as well. In effect, what we are left with through a variety of psychological devices brought about by certain environmental cues, is a sort of collective "death drive". I'm fine with this. I have been studying this shit for 8 years now, almost to the day, and a few days ago it all finally clicked. We actively want to thin the population. Not as a deliberate conscious choice on anyones part necessarily, but as an emergent property. Further, there is nothing that can be done about it except on the individual level for those few who understand what is happening. Thus there is no need to continue to stress myself out over trying to save the world. It can not be done. What can be done is use the knowledge of the underlying biological mechanics to my advantage in my life. So, move to somewhere sunny and cheap and watch things unfold. Act as appropriate depending on how things develop. And in the event that I end up with kids one day, use it to make them healthy and better than the previous three generations because god knows they need it, and my family is far from the worst I know. Is there a BTC/USD wall observing connection, goofball? |
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It’s an interesting chart. But the wallet is now empty and the last move was 1 March. So it seems any influence that wallet could have is now gone
Given the size I wonder if it is an exchange cold wallet and those coins have now all gone to strong hands.
I am kind of with you Hairy, but March 1 is not that long ago, and all 60k coins put on one exchange, perhaps? Would have to be a real liquid exchange to absorb that many coins with hardly a blip downwards in the BTC price. We cannot completely rule out that those coins have not been traded yet, or only a fraction of them have been traded, so far. It would be great if those coins had already got absorbed by the market, but what are the chances? 50% at best? |
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Don’t know what V8 means with their hols....?
I believe that he is referring to your holidays... but not exactly sure, either. |
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