Haha, nice interview anyway, good job  Did I miss it or did you completely step over the fact what your 'role'/'contribution' is wrt Bitcoin? (aka, the real proof you are an expert). Did you leave out Armory on purpose? They literally called me and said "Hey we're from this radio station and want to interview you? How bout in 10 minutes?" I didn't realize it was only going to be a five-minute interview, so I didn't have time to talk about myself. I would have if he asked anything about security, but the topic never came up. Personally, I'm fine with the way it went. I'd rather try to spread good information about Bitcoin and get people interested in Bitcoin in general, than promote some application for that "Bitcoin thing" that they don't understand. "It's the most secure way to use this thing that you don't care about! Go try it out!" How did they find you? I haven't listen to the audio yet, but it would be too bad if you didn't get the chance to tell them that given enough attention, bitcoin is much more scure/less hackable than gold/fiats are. |
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Literally silkroad! You are absolutely right! Bitcoin has no future in legal world! Coz there nobody need such volatile currency or asset.
Only drugs, whores, gambling, weapons and other stuff which no other choice except bitcoin.
There are other completely legal things which will require bitcoins. You are Russian, I don't think I need to tell you in plain words. Bu first world people probably can't get it. lol did you just call Russia a second (third?) world country? Hmmm, why did they huddle together with nations like China to form the BRICS? There ain't one developed nation in this whole group besides South Africa, which unfortunately has a life expectancy of less then 50 years. |
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We choose to accept this challenge because it makes us better.
Let us hope that we will deserve that amount of wealth when that day arrives.
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I don't think it's so difficult to check out the chart yourself, but anyway FYI here is the hourly chart of the whole crash in June 2011, http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igHourlyzczsg2011-06-06zeg2011-06-12ztgSza1gSMAzm1g200zm2g21zvthere are a number of traits for you to see: 1.The price moved up very fast before the top, can be 100% per day. 2. The price then made a rapid downmove, which in itself is not enough for you to distinguish a crash from a normal correction. 3. The price then slowly recovered but never reached the previous top. 4. The price then started to decline slowly but surely, for a few days, at this stage it becomes more and more clean that the selling pressure is outweighing the buying pressure and the current price range could not last for long. 5. Eventually the price made a final decisive move below the brown hourly SMA 200 line, accompanied by large volume, which marked the beginning of the bear market. But it's just the past, which very well may not tell anything about the future. I'm not a bear but.... 1. The price moved up very fast before the top ($147). 2. The price made a very rapid downmove (to $108 or $100 if you ask btc-e) 3. The price then slowly recovered... GUISE, WE NEED TO REACH THE PREVIOUS TOP... IMHO, no.4 is the distinctive trait, no.5 is the last selling opportunity. All else we have seen before in this rally, |
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Literally silkroad! You are absolutely right! Bitcoin has no future in legal world! Coz there nobody need such volatile currency or asset.
Only drugs, whores, gambling, weapons and other stuff which no other choice except bitcoin.
There are other completely legal things which will require bitcoins. You are Russian, I don't think I need to tell you in plain words. Bu first world people probably can't get it. Am... Speculation? Speculation sure, but that's not what I meant. There are many places in the world where completely legal things are not allowed to be done(or just reserved for a bunch of privileged people). |
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Literally silkroad! You are absolutely right! Bitcoin has no future in legal world! Coz there nobody need such volatile currency or asset.
Only drugs, whores, gambling, weapons and other stuff which no other choice except bitcoin.
There are other completely legal things which will require bitcoins. You are Russian, I don't think I need to tell you in plain words. Bu first world people probably can't get it. |
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You know, this is all just nuts =) Bitcoin isn't a [classic] ponzi only because merchants accept it as payment option.
But do they accept Bitcoin? No. They accept Bitpay. It's a really different things. Merchants don't need bitcoin itself because of volatility. And what do we have? We have adoption, where all economics depends on TWO single points of failure: Bitpay and MtGox, where Bitpay hedges.
Kill one of them and all will just stop exists: wordpress, namecheap, amazon and other famous merchants accepting Bitcoin Bitpay. Especially taking into account how much money Bitpay laundered for BFL scam.
This all can blow at anytime. I hope i will get rich first =)
You forget Silk Road. |
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Oh me, look at this one. Here's another graph that is going straight up. Wonder why the inflection point. Why was the second derivative negative?  wow, 175 000 users = big incentive for some hardcore black-hats. Never trust any bitcoin merchant who doesn't use cold storage whenever possible. |
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I don't think it's so difficult to check out the chart yourself, but anyway FYI here is the hourly chart of the whole crash in June 2011, http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igHourlyzczsg2011-06-06zeg2011-06-12ztgSza1gSMAzm1g200zm2g21zvthere are a number of traits for you to see: 1.The price moved up very fast before the top, can be 100% per day. 2. The price then made a rapid downmove, which in itself is not enough for you to distinguish a crash from a normal correction. 3. The price then slowly recovered but never reached the previous top. 4. The price then started to decline slowly but surely, for a few days, at this stage it becomes more and more clean that the selling pressure is outweighing the buying pressure and the current price range could not last for long. 5. Eventually the price made a final decisive move below the brown hourly SMA 200 line, accompanied by large volume, which marked the beginning of the bear market. But it's just the past, which very well may not tell anything about the future. |
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Wow! Surprised no one else noticed yet  With volume being so low I assume it was someone who either meant to place a large bid but hit buy instead or didn't know they were supposed to. The volume wasn't really quite low. Maybe it's rpietila. |
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The good thing about predicting doom and gloom: You're always happy to be wrong.
Unless of course you truly believe your own predictions, sell everything at $14 and sit with open orders at $5 for a year like a complete moron. Or even worse, goes all in short bitcoins at $3 on Bitcoinica, then.... then first loses everything while shorting, takes a mortgage-backed loan to go leveraged long on bitcoin, and then bitcoinica runs with the money... I think we figured out how perma-bears are born. When you live under the bridge, doom and gloom is all you see Hmmm...guess we all have buried the word "Zhoutonged" somewhere in our memory lane.  |
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The good thing about predicting doom and gloom: You're always happy to be wrong.
Unless of course you truly believe your own predictions, sell everything at $14 and sit with open orders at $5 for a year like a complete moron. Or even worse, goes all in short bitcoins at $3 on Bitcoinica, then.... |
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I'm actually starting to doubt the importance of Bitcoin being used for a wide range of transactions at this point.
Look at gold! It's got just a few interesting non-store-of-value uses where no substitute is feasible, and the rest of the market price is all accounted for by its store-of-value functionality. Well, so does Bitcoin. Gold shows that only a tiny fraction of use value is needed to back the store-of-value value. Right now the world may need the latter far more than the former, and bitcoins have some huge advantages over gold as a store of value, especially in these times.
bingo. Stage 1: store of value Stage 2: value exchange Some are trying to force it now (bitcoinstore) and I personally dont think its ready for such a thing. I sure hope I'm wrong, but we will see I suppose. It doesnt need to be a perfect value exchange mechanism yet... It has so much functionality left under the hood that we havent even scratched the surface yet really. Another use: third-party-less escrow. |
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Here is mine: (some single digit number)*(proudhon's pension)/BTC
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rpietila will not like it. |
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Okay, maybe "way off" is a bit over the top. But trying to predict market movement when it's extremely illiquid always seems a bit "hit-and-miss" to me, one big fish changes his mind and everything changes, especially with bitcoin we had whales which are amateurish traders. I don't doubt your credentials by the way, especially right now your insane super-bullish call is working out. |
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All analysts I knew were way-off at the 2011 bottom
no way. i was all over this place with buy recommendations at the time and i've linked to many key threads to prove it. You admitted that you didn't expect the price to go so low. Nevertheless it was only a short-term problem. |
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