I might not do TA very well, but I can code up a "hello world"  |
|
|
|
My fucking god. The Bitcoin Foundation has no power. Realize that.
Let's say that at some point when big players enter the game, the foundation starts gaining the power. How about that? Do you honestly think they could EVER control Bitcoin? That every Bitcoin user would fall into a synchronized team with them? So many Bitcoiners hate them it's unimaginable. No 'big players' can change that. Unless they 'crash' Bitcoin, which is so unlikely it hurts, they still won't have any power. "Nice cryptocurreny you have there, be a shame if something happened to it..." is my first thought on that! |
|
|
|
|
The migration to [litecoin]* would be immense.
*or some other coin(s)
|
|
|
|
|
So many people know so much about manufacturing ASICs I'm surprised they haven't started their own company.
|
|
|
|
Am I the only person who finds this endless "whale" stuff both boring and paranoid? Nobody ever gives a plausible explanation as to who these whales are supposed to be or how they are able to manipulate prices to their advantage. All you ever get is arm-waving, ranting and metaphors. It's all very conspiracy-nuttish and unpersuasive.
Time and time again, in all areas ranging from geo-politics right down to personal relationships, things come out into the public domain that make it clear that all was not as it seemed nor as it was supposed to be. If you don't find the way the way that Bitcoin has been traded recently a little 'peculiar', then that is your prerogative not to do so. Perhaps the numerous shit coin ramps were all straight down the line and innocent as well? Move along, nothing to see here? You stick with your 'everything in the world is at it says on the tin' understanding of how the world works and I shall stick to suspecting that powerful people conspire to manipulate events and occurrences to suit their own agendas/desires (duh). For the reasons I describe in my opening post, this bullish cup n handle formation has come about in a very strange and inorganic fashion. Even permabulls who were watching the action and were aware of the temporary swap rate hike on Bitfinex are smelling fish. Take away the price engineering from this market and we would most certainly correct from here, but probably, we are going to break to the upside. I feel sure that the market engineers will see to that, or perhaps already have seen to it since 90% of traders are bot algorithms........give em the price data they, need, they will do the rest in due course. If everything is doing that, then wouldn't that make it normal? Peculiar would be if all BTC was traded in accordance with the queensbury rules, with everyone given a jolly good heads up about which way it was going in advance so everyone could profit. What ho. |
|
|
|
I'm closing entree's on this on 1 June so get your prediction in if you haven't.
All you latecomers... tsk tsk. |
|
|
|
|
I'm always at least half joking, I'm afraid its a condition I've developed whereby I find it best not to take anything too seriously, least of all myself! (and magnified on the internet)
I do accept there are patterns, I certainly couldn't say with any conviction there aren't. I've become more open minded to TA as practised by people like yourself, who do seem to understand how nuanced it is - an art form. As opposed to those that think its science, and seemingly refuse to accept that any given interpretation could be entirely wrong.
I think on a broader scale all patterns represent depictions of crowd psychology, and to this end their certainly is probably some information in them. That's why as outlandish as it sounds I think the moon indicator belongs in their. Human psychology and full moons seem to have some relationship, even if its along the same lines as people believe in chart patterns therefor they come true line of reasoning.
My reasoning behind the candlestick patterns being less relevant was due to that psychological effect of market open/close and how the intraday price in relation to the open/close price seemed to form some of the reasoning for certain candlestick patterns being described as they are.
I think the dailies (and weekly etc) are a different kind of beast to the intraday, 5 min, 10 min etc candles. Whilst, as you say, they both likely contain statistically relevant information, I suspect the kind of information they provide or the behaviour from which the two groups arise is likely different. Human psychology from one minute to the next is more a continuum, whereas the overall behaviour in a defined period with deadlines would be more discrete, and the time during which the market is closed provides quite a long period for significant changes to occur - a fairly simple example of this is the gap up/down one sees typically following some development out of hours. As BTC doesn't have out of hours we often get much smoother (although steep) moves on significant news, and these moves sometimes echo as other markets around the world enter their peak hours. In some way it may be that the always open nature of the bitcoin market somewhat dampens the volatility. In markets which gap up or down, they have to open somewhere and I think that initial jump may be much bigger due to people wanting to ensure they get in on the action (something like how an auction with sealed bids produces different results to one without). Again all of this is just me pondering the possible effects, not stating they are fact.
I suppose if I had to sum up what I am thinking, if one can intuit the difference in a regular market between the intra and inter day candles and what they show, then I would be more likely to treat all bitcoin candles regardless of period as 'intra' style. Given the market is continuos.
As I said before, I don't know really anything about it in practice and I'm just thinking out loud about the theory. Maybe it might be useful to someone, even if its only a starting point for a much deeper investigation.
(and definitely no offence intended)
|
|
|
|
Stop posting
At least the other people that disagree had their big boy pants on. What was your point again? You know this chart stuff is an art right? You know some people like Rembrandt and some people like Picasso? Tell me about your favourite indicator and why it's so good. Be sure not to say anything that everyone disagrees with though, the consequences could be unthinkable. You'll never be in the cool gang unless you say the right words. So tell me to stop posting again. See if it works as well as the first time. |
|
|
|
|
Just to further discredit myself I would add that I would put the moon phase indicator as a much more reliable indicator than candlesticks. No homo. Or whatever it is you crazy kids say when you aren't joking.
|
|
|
|
I accept it's midnight utc to *draw* the chart but what I'm getting at is that midnight utc doesn't actually have the same effect on trading that an actual market open/close might have. I can see you are all very keen for that to not matter though. I'm a chart noob anyway, I probably haven't got a clue what I'm talking about. Probably best to ignore everything I say |
|
|
|
|
not to mention candlesticks need a market open/close to even exist. you can make them by picking some arbitrary time as your cutoff, but depending on which time you pick, you get different patterns.
|
|
|
|
Just got mine in about 30 mins ago. Looks like the price has squeaked in under 630.95, which means I might end up with a positive score... 0.1 to be precise  |
|
|
|
i will be happy with four doubling
I'd be pretty much wetting my pants |
|
|
|
Did i read that right? MatTheCat is bullish on bitcoin?  It's a bit worrying. I was expecting it to be much higher before the mtc-sentiment indicator switched! Makes it seem a bit bulltrappy. |
|
|
|
|
Its looking pretty close!
|
|
|
|
Ok... I've been a long-term bitcoin bull since I first really researched it in 2011. But you guys with your charts are grasping at air. Humans are natural pattern seekers, so this is all very tempting, but you're drawing conclusions based on a sample-set of 2 (and not to mention while also ignoring the 2011-2013 peak-to-peak of 20 months).
Look at it from a market-cap and global-influence perspective. Something going from a $100M to $1B market cap is going from a pittance to....still a pittance. Thus, there are many dynamics that can cause such a thing to happen. We're probably still in that realm going from $1B to $10B. Ten billion is still small in terms of global finance. There are plenty of *individuals* with higher net worth, and hundreds if not thousands of equities.
But the next order of magnitude up crosses a line. At $100B, there are only a few global equities with higher market-cap, zero individuals, and we're starting to get into the M2 money-supply range of somewhat important nations. Go toward $200-$500B and we're in serious global influence territory. Crossing that line out of "not globally important" is a big deal, and it can't happen easily.
That said, I think we *can* get to $30B-$50B market-cap on largely the same dynamics that have brought us this far. To get above, that, though, bitcoin will have to win some major battles.
Great comment, melbustus. Thanks. Similar to an argument I play out in my head occasionally. 100B (or somewhere around there) crosses into a new territory, imo. Marx' Umschlag von Quantität und Qualität comes to mind (the transition from a difference in quantity to a difference in quality.) Just to play devil's advocate, I want to say that perhaps market cap might not be the one true indicator of when we move from pittance to globally important. I serve this with a large helping of salt, but roughly speaking it looks like a n^x increase in price only requires xn in fiat volume. That is to say that if the market cap was to increase exponentially, the fiat needed to support that price only appears to increase geometrically. This is a loose observation just glancing quickly at price /volume in fiat and necessarily means looking back at gox data, so theres potentially interference, and more than likely a bit of wishful thinking  What it might mean (here's that wishful thinking) is that the move to $10k could still happen without a globally significant amount of fiat backing it, and that it might be a move to $100k that would necessitate the transition to quality. Of course bear in mind that I'm the frothy mouthed kind of bitcoin nutter that thinks the willy report is long term bullish |
|
|
|
Good post, MatTheCat.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." - Mark Twain People round here seem to be so sure on everything, I expect soon they will all be millionaires... |
|
|
|
Now,now,don't be too greedy. It was barely $400 a month ago. It's slowly finding it's way up,give it some time.  Today, 26th May @ 22:15 UTC
Lol,that's extremely specific.  Maybe that's when he will launch his market buy for 10,000 BTC? Soon, next few weeks, over the coming months, significantly higher, much lower etc etc all well and good if all you care about is never being wrong. God forbid anyone was ever wrong on the internet! If you bought and are holding, it doesn't really matter when I think people should stop pussy footing around and throw some darts |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
