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861  Economy / Speculation / Re: 3...2...1... (...?) Lift off! on: July 06, 2015, 07:49:25 AM
Looking at the recent history of bitcoins (last 6 months or so) it definately looks like it has entered bullish territory.  However, I don't see the moon any time soon.  Right now it looks like we are in a trading range, with serious resistance ~260-265.  I would be surprised to see it hit 270 in the next few weeks, but of course you can never predict these things 100%.  And it would be nice to be wrong!

Note:  I am not an expert, so feel free to ignore my opinion Tongue

SURPRISE!
862  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - ACTIVITY CHECK UNTIL 07/02 on: July 06, 2015, 05:57:29 AM
Still holding
863  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: July 05, 2015, 04:31:37 PM
The longer the price doesn't crash, the more I think something crazy is coming... feels uncannily like the $2 days at the moment...

Or it feels like the 5$ of the first days of October 2011, before dropping to 2$. Cheesy
Remember, this market moved a lot slower than in 2011. Wink

actually I'm wrong i meant the $5 days (beginning of 2012) got my bottoms mixed up Smiley
864  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: July 05, 2015, 12:42:11 PM
This is log version of that chart...



On the original sgbett's chart ^^^ x=days as per
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=800330.msg9005672#msg9005672
below is my comment on this chart. in red-approximation of what actually happened (days and prices are approximate at the current situation).
Green arrow is what is needed to get on the chart-I am not predicting that it will, just playing with the graph.


As drawn, we will be back at the graph at ~$8000 on Feb 20, 2016. Again, I am not predicting anything.

Thanks for doing that chart Biodom, nice to see how things play out over the long term.
865  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: July 05, 2015, 12:36:51 PM
The longer the price doesn't crash, the more I think something crazy is coming... feels uncannily like the $2 days at the moment...
866  Economy / Speculation / Re: graphical predictions of the next three years on: June 04, 2015, 08:30:39 PM
Graphical predictions should be at least graphical...

867  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - ACTIVITY CHECK until 05/31 on: May 29, 2015, 06:54:51 AM
Still hodling
868  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mid-Term Market Prediction Contest (Round 1 - The Results) on: May 14, 2015, 05:05:45 PM
if only i had been just a bit more bearish Wink

nice one RyN

looking forward to the next round. looking even more forward to finally emerging from this period of malaise and hopelessness. its all proceeding textbookly!
869  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 76 PARTICIPANTS on: April 08, 2015, 04:14:53 PM
y'all wish you had my precision  Grin
870  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: April 08, 2015, 04:13:07 PM
Probably my timescale is wrong, probably my target is wrong.

Mostly though I'm still confident the underlying hypothesis remains solid. When it happens people will be utterly bamboozled.

In the meantime, buy and HODL.  Wink

Can't hurt, provided you only do so with money you are prepared to lose. Just like *all* investing Wink
871  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: April 08, 2015, 10:08:58 AM
Probably my timescale is wrong, probably my target is wrong.

Mostly though I'm still confident the underlying hypothesis remains solid. When it happens people will be utterly bamboozled.
872  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 76 PARTICIPANTS on: April 08, 2015, 10:04:31 AM
Cut my loose!

Buy 255.65
873  Economy / Speculation / Re: Here comes the big money... on: April 07, 2015, 06:00:47 PM
Wall street big money, this have been mentioned for thousands times, but seems they never come with their big money and big pump to market. Anyway I'm glad we back to $260 today.

I feel like sophisticated finance is not the type to accumulate like every day people. I imagine some sort of crazy math refined by stress testing rakes up all the money from normal speculators, no matter which direction they want to go.  We know they're definitely in Bitcoin. Why would you rather pump up the price making everyone rich when you could keep more of the fiat influx to yourself setting up trading ranges you can more or less control i.e. profit in both directions? But maybe I'm too paranoid.

"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play."

874  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 76 PARTICIPANTS on: April 06, 2015, 01:36:31 AM
sell $254.66

Shit... If he's selling, then I gots to sell  Shocked
Sell
@ 254.60

 Grin

Once again, my cunning plan is thwarted by the market's ability to do exactly the opposite to what I think it will!
875  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 76 PARTICIPANTS on: April 05, 2015, 02:11:48 AM
sell $254.66
876  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is DEA Agent Force Responsible For MtGox Collapse? on: April 02, 2015, 08:14:47 PM
I came across an interesting comment elsewhere by someone named ozlanthos and thought I would share.

Quote
I've been saying this for a while now. That the "exchange hackings" are being done by federal agents, or proxies for federal agencies. See unlike FRNs, the government can't ask the Federal Reserve to "print" more Bitcoin. Because of that, they can't keep devaluing the FRN at the rate they were, because the inflation would show in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptos. As a matter of fact, I am pretty sure that is why the Fed stopped QE to begin with, they couldn't hide the rate of release of new FRNs anymore. It's one thing when the FRN is falling in value at the same rate as the other fiat currencies, it's an entirely different matter when there are currencies like Bitcoin whose rate of production is not only fixed but deterministic, and orders of magnitude slower.

In attempts to dissuade people from investing in Bitcoin, the Fed has to distort the value of Bitcoin in contrast to Federal Reserve Notes. They can let the FRN strengthen by cutting back on QE, and increasing interest rates. Either of which will make the FRN a better store of value over the short-term. The problem is that many industries (oil specifically) have become DEPENDENT on cheap money flowing to the banks from the fed. Without the awesome rates the banks were getting (more or less FREE) exploration for sites to frack seems like a lame investment because of the cheapening prices of gas, and relatively low returns by comparison to conventional oil drilling. This negative feed-back loop has already gotten to the point where oil workers are being laid off by the thousands in the US and Canada.

All of this puts the fed in a bad spot. It could buy enough BTC to sell it at a loss, and cause major chaos on our exchanges, but, doing so would lose them money, and the market would correct too quickly for doing it to be worth it. In addition it would make everyone that sold them BTC richer. They could invest in networks to pull a 51% attack, but it would only work for 10 minutes. If they tried to mine, it would put the difficulty through the roof, make miners richer, and cost them as much to mine as it does everyone else. Everyone would know the fed got into mining, and the price would follow the difficulty. They have to steal it, or have someone else do it for them. It is the only way to get Bitcoin other than mining it, buying it (or trading for it...either of which makes traders richer), or selling something for it. Last I heard, they don't take BTC for Treasury Notes.....The markets behave the way they do because "someone" is selling Bitcoin in a way that seems to indicate that they didn't buy it, trade something of equivalent value, or mine it (meaning like they have no regard or concern for how much BTC is worth/costs)....you do the math...

-Oz

Wow, I bet there's so much going on that we have no clue about. How deep does this go?

Why did Josh Jones offer to buy everyone's goxcoins for 0.11BTC on the goXBT?

I'm not saying its aliens...
877  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - ACTIVITY CHECK until 03-24 on: March 27, 2015, 05:30:37 PM
All updated!



Next Activity check: START 2015-04-16 00:00 UTC / END 2015-04-18 23:59:00 UTC
Every post between now and the end of the activity check count as "being active"

PS: sgbett, there are some inactive people below you. They will soon disappear from the scoreboard, in the meantime, enjoy not being last Wink

69

ahh yeah
878  Economy / Speculation / Re: Current market conditions are scary on: March 27, 2015, 04:59:36 PM
WFN find everything scary. Even when he was bullish he never really believed it Wink

Me on the other hand. I'm terrified, but still buying like a fully committed bag holder!
879  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 16, 2015, 03:03:00 PM
Fiatcoin is nearly here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/12/us-bitcoin-ibm-idUSKBN0M82KB20150312\

Quote
Unlike bitcoin, where the network is decentralized and there is no overseer, the proposed digital currency system would be controlled by central banks, the source said.

"These coins will be part of the money supply," the source said. "It's the same money, just not a dollar bill with a serial number on it, but a token that sits on this blockchain."

Nice.  Now they won't even have to turn on the printing presses.  Just type in a big number and hit enter.

I'm assuming this means we then get accurate insight into exactly what the money supply is. No more shadowstats! No more government handwaving about inflation!

Not such a bad thing?
880  Economy / Speculation / Re: If btc -> moon and you no longer need to work, what will you do with your time? on: March 16, 2015, 12:04:20 AM
Continue to work, as I do now...
I own my own business and it's as close to guaranteed income as one can get. There is no guarantee I will ever get all of my money out of Bitcoin if I wanted to. Besides, Bitcoin is just a nice bonus to my retirement account as long as it doesn't die.

same. you also highlighted potentially the biggest obstacle... "There is no guarantee I will ever get all of my money out of Bitcoin"

there are countless potential problems with a bitcoin moon scenario. i don't think its as easy as retiring to a yacht without a care in the world.

call me misguided but I have this vision of moon-bitcoin days in the future when I just have a bitcoin debit card that I live off... or bitcoin is a sufficiently recognised medium of exchange I can just pay for things straight with it, and so on.

sgbett care to share some of the possible problems with a massive increase in btc value?



to be honest I have no idea what I would do apart from live life as normal and just be a bit more relaxed about the future.


I'm imagining , say, a bitcoin moon scenario bring one where it becomes global money. The 21m xbt = $xxx trillions

I don't think the people with billions of dollars and very little Bitcoin will just allow massive wealth redistribution without *some* kind of interference.

It's all about timing, they won't do anything until it's apparant BTC is a problem in that regard, but they need to not leave it too late in case they can't stop it.


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