I don't understand why you are defending either jbreher or craig wright, merely because you dislike hairy?

Who gives a ratt's ass about about whether hairy's points are logically valid or well supported by evidence, there is no need to defend either jbreher nor craig wright and the various fraudulent scam claims that craig wright has made including his ongoing non-contributions to the bitcoin space. and whether craig wright has valid patents or not does not matter because craig wright is a phoney balony distractor to other ongoing important and positive activities and developments in the bitcoin space.

O.k.  Our opinions differ on this topic.  I consider one category of a loser to be someone like craigwright who is lacking in integrity and who is largely a scam artist who is hostile to bitcoin while fraudulently proclaiming himself to be satoshi, and you consider that same person to be a winner, so long as he is rich or able to become rich.  We differ.

I was trying to figure out the substantive connection to me, and then I forgot that there were a few dumbasses, including yourself, that have been suggesting that I am AI.  That is one of the dumbest frameworks... but if being dumb floats your boat, then so be it...



Please lurn troll more better.   

Not sure if I needed to know that (based on unlikely application to any real life situation), but I admit that I did learn something new today.   

Globb0:

There is nothing wrong with having mixed emotions about your plan and your level of diversification and also questions about whether your plans are helping you to reach your objectives.  Hopefully, you do not have too much in Monero that would cause me to proclaim that you are hooking your horse to the wrong wagon.

It seems that no matter what our age or income status, we should be able to make a bitcoin plan that works for our own situation, maybe even if your timeline is less than 3 years.  

Of course, the longer your timeline, the easier it will be to balance your investment plan and also go through the accumulation, then maintenance and then withdrawal phases.  Seems that a minimum of 2-3 years is prudent in that regard, and if you have more time, then you have more power.  You also have more power, if you have already invested in BTC and your  BTC holdings are in profits.  It becomes a bit more complicated if your BTC holdings are not in profits, because then what to do gets back to having at least 2-3 years from now to continue to HODL, and accumulate, at least until your portfolio gets into profits.

Recently, I have even heard decently credible sources repeat some of CSW's elaborate bullshit stories - including his assertion that satoshi's coins are locked in trust until 2020...... Yeah right.   

Should be at least $10million party by then.. maybe even $100million.

You are the one bringing it up and arguing that if CSW is able to get rich, then he is a wonderful "winner"... I don't see any need to throw praise in that direction.. and why would I give a shit about what society says.. You are the one trying to argue for Craig and his possible patents (whether they exist at all or they are valid who knows or cares, besides you and your ongoing arguing about such?)

Do what you want.  I am suggesting that there is no need to invest more than 5% of your investable value in to PMs such as gold, and even that is probably too high, but of course, if you are NOT geographically mobile, you already have a cellar full of gold that you know how to take care of, you might be inclined to hold more.. but likely a waste of time for investors who want to remain more mobile and don't want to learn about various possible rustic channels of liquidation when bitcoin is likely to be a superior asset class that accomplishes the same thing plus more. 

The likely fact that you might change your plan does not cause any such planning to be futile.

It would be almost as bad to stick to a plan for the mere sake of it, especially if you have come across ways to tweak it and to make it better.

For example, I had never really sold any BTC before October/November 2015 - because whenever I did sell, I would replace them within a day or two.  However, in mid-2015, I created a incremental sell plan, yet when the BTC price shot up from $280 to $500, I froze.  I cancelled most of my sell orders between $350 and $500 because "feelings of UP"... and I even generated so many "feelings of UP" that I bought a bit more at $500 at the peak of that BTC price surge in early November 2015.

As you may recall, it took until the end of May 2016 for BTC prices to return to above $500 and to cause my late November 2015 purchase at $500 to become profitable. It seems to me that I learned a lot from that experience NOT to become so emotional and just to stick with my already existing incremental sell plan.... It takes some practice to get better at sticking with a plan and improving on the way in which and the degree to which you tweak your plan.

My supposition is that if you do not create a plan and at least attempt to learn from the plan by trying to largely carry it out, then you will likely fall into a kind of constant emotional adjustment that you suggest to "gonna happen anyhow" - which is NOT true from my perspective of my way of attempting to plan and learn.



Good to have aspirations.


Yep... you know that none of those are even close to guaranteed - but if variations of such price appreciation end up happening, then it is good to be in it and prepared  (or at least hedged).

Many of us in BTC for a while recognize that similar lack of certainty proclamations have happened previously, so 2015 was a pretty dire period, yet if you accumulated a decent stash of BTC during 2015, you would have already had periods of time in which portions of your BTC stash have easily surpassed 20x and even perhaps 50x and gotten pretty damned close to 100x...   

Past performance does NOT guarantee future performance - but there still seem to be decent foundational aspects in place that cause good probabilities that investing in BTC is likely to pay off handsomely in the coming years.



Does it matter?  We are far past the 2013 bull run, so overall, there seems to be more than just a willy bot propping up BTC prices.


Are you trying to simplify matters too much? by arguing narrow reasons for BTC price appreciation bubbles?


surely not out of the realm of possible outcomes.  I would hate to NOT have any skin in the BTC game if knowing about these kinds of underlying facts and underlying decent odds for future exponential UP.

I think that I already explained my position. If you want to value winners based on their ability to get rich by any means, then you can do that.



hm?  Craig is one of the good guys, and he is not a fraudster.  I did not get that memo.

We are either going to believe the bullshit of craig wright or spend time researching into the extent to which shit that he proclaims is true.   Yeah, like I want to spend my time doing that.  For now, I will just be safe to consider him as an attack vector based on behaviors and actions that I have already seen from that nutjob.  I doubt it is a good use of time to try to figure out if there is some kind of possible validity in some of the things that he has done or is in the process of doing.  I will leave that to others, including you, if you want to go hang around with seeming fraudsters like that.

Just in regards to your last statement, above.  I think that i am being real with a suggestion of a 5% ceiling on dinosaur PM investments.  BTC is likely to be a sufficient hedge, but of course, some of this depends on other investments that you have, too.. and how much you value mobility.  

Personally, at this time, I don't own any gold because i don't want to have to store the shit (and I don't want paper gold, either), but with my BTC profits I could buy some gold, if I were to want to, if later I transform into a belief that gold could possibly serve as a meaningful hedge..  

By the way, if you are geographically stable, and you are already used to buying gold, then maybe you are more inclined.  I have neither of those nor any desire to become more geographically stable or to learn about what is authentic gold, at this time.  Bitcoin is much more practical in that regards - portable, divisible, verifiable, and 24/7 ability to play around with it without 3rd parties getting in the way.  

You have to find what works for you, mindrust, and don't let peer pressure force you to do something that you are not ready to do.

It is possible that you need more tools.  I really don't believe in the "all in" approach, but I do believe in analyzing how much you are putting into bitcoin.  Risky, if bitcoin is your only investment, then likely you do have to keep more in fiat to balance that out.

Most traditional investors are recommending in the 1% to 10% into bitcoin versus other kinds of investments, and of course, if you are going on the more risky side of that, you may end up putting way higher amounts into bitcoin and not having other traditional investments, which seems to be gambling too much for me.. but hey, I built my traditional investments before diversifying into bitcoin...

I understand that if you are not starting out with much if any traditional investments, you might be more willing to put a higher percentage into bitcoin and even more leery of possible returns for more traditional investments.   

I agree with your possible initial criticism of mindrust's approach in that there is some decent likelihood of payoff with an aggressive BTC approach, especially during the BTC accumulation stage.

Hopefully, your level of aggressiveness, ivomm, does not involve too much gambling - and hopefully you have all your basic expenses covered, in the event your scenario projections don't play out in anywhere near expected.  In other words, BTC can still be a very good investment, even if it only goes up, on average 10% per year, because there is also the possibility of the 100x that may or may not happen...

Yes, like you suggest there is likely a quite a bit of a personality type going on here, but then we arrive at a question of nature versus nurture.

In that regard, I think that people can learn good practices.. a nurture question.

I get a lot of flack on this forum for my long posts, and maybe some members conclude that I am lecturing at them; however, I consider this forum to be an interactive brainstorming mechanism, so I participate in the forum in order to have back and forth exchanges of information and to learn from others and learn about myself.. so for example, writing a long post, might allow me to learn about myself, too and to tweak my practice and strategies in light of what I learn.

I actually grew up in a rural area with parents who were not wealthy nor college educated, and there was a bit of value in working your way through things and self-independence. 

When I left home, I thought that I would not go to college; however, after I left college, and I was really struggling how to prepare myself for the future, very early on, I learned about creating a financial cushion and having enough funds to sustain your lifestyle, even if you get cut off for 6 months or longer.  Of course, I took that to further and further extremes conceptually, which involved attempting to figure out how to keep costs down which increases the amount that can be invested.

Bitcoin offers some self-reliant savings and investment strategies that had not been available with traditional investments both in terms of cost but also in terms of 24/7 availability and not having to go through any kind of middle man.  Anyhow, you can really go to town in the category of self-tailoring.  One of the earliest things that i learned in basic finances is that if you do not have much, you have to really chip away to build and build and build.  Prosperity does not tend to come quickly.  You have to both pay off high interest rate debts but also take measures NOT to add them to your life.   Debt is not totally bad, either, if you can get credit then you might want to use it, especially if you can get higher returns than the debt costs (without gambling).  So even if you only have $500 worth of income per month, there are likely ways to shave down your expenses in such a way that you are able to stock away $100 per month.. and you should build up your various emergency funds, first before you start to make more risky investments - such as bitcoin. 

There is definitely going to be more juggling when there is not a lot of funds to work with, and sometimes, there will be a need to increase the income side of the ledger in order to make meaningful investments into bitcoin - even if you are only able to invest $10 a week into bitcoin because you are building your emergency fund and covering your basic living expenses.

Did some of our communications get mixed up in the back and forth.

I was not really attempting to figure out your exact bitcoin stash or to suggest how much you would have at various price points, except to suggest that if you cash out 50% of your stash at various points between $50k and $100k, then are you going to have any BTC left to cash out at $350k. 

You know that in the end, there is a bit of an academic exercise here, because of course, you can do whatever you want with your stash, and my ongoing difficulties with any plan is when I perceive there are times in which it may be cashing out too much BTC and not holding onto enough in order to be prepared if the price goes to $350k like Hairy suggests.

I don't mean to accuse you exactly of cashing out all of your BTC, but I suppose in the end, I may be accusing you of cashing out more than necessary - even while in the end, your method of cashing out remains your choice - even while we might brainstorm about it, which can be helpful to both of us and others who might chime into such a discussion, as well, since we are on an open thread... 




Hey.. I think that all of us will tweak our plan from time to time, and there is nothing wrong with that.   I have always striven to plan for both up and down price movements, so of course, I never want to run out of BTC, even if the price ends up petering out... and then I get stuck with lack of appreciation losses from the subsequent price falls. 

But there are other reasons that we can change our mind and our plan, too.. including, perhaps, cashing out so fucking much money that we don't really feel any inclination to cash out more.  Accordingly, I have frequently said that I'm not too interested in buying a Lambo, even though I could have bought several.. however, I could become more likely to buy a Lambo if BTC prices to go up 100x from here like Hairy is telling us.  In that kind of scenario, I might feel that I need to tweak my cashing out plans because I might run out of things to buy, and a Lambo might start to seem practical, just for shits and giggles.

You are correct, Globb0, that I may have overstated the start triggers for my cashing out of BTC parameters a wee bit; however, if you read in other parts of that same post, I am suggesting that, tentatively, both I will begin to cash out 1% per quarter in that 4-5 year timeline and that I anticipate the BTC price will at least be above $4,500 at that time (again based on a tentative expectation that BTC prices will appreciate in value at least 1% per quarter from today's prices from now until 4-5 years from now). 

Of course, I am free to change my mind (or tentative cashing out plan) at any time, but I am attempting to state a tentative plan and expectations for parameters for such a plan, and you are correct that I may need to rethink my plan to some extent if BTC does not, at least, achieve the price performance of $4,500 or greater by the time we reach my timeline target 4-5 years.. or if some other crazy things were to occur regarding BTC.  But, largely, if its price is above $4,500 I might want to just get started with a cashing out plan based on my being 4-5 years older, no? 

On the other hand, I already had mentioned in some of my previous posts, that a 1% per quarter cashing out plan presumes an ability to continue such cashing out plan forever based on a presumption of at least 4% per year appreciation of value, and therefore such cashing out presumption is that you are never eating into your principle, but instead merely living off of the interest of such investment. 

Even at current BTC prices, my BTC holdings are way above a 4% per annum appreciation since I started in 2013.

Let's just say, for conservative calculation's sake, my average cost per BTC is $1,000. $3,500 gives penty of a profit cushion to start cashing out today, if I were to want to, so in that regard, I would not really, in theory, be eating into principle, even if I were to start to cash out today at 1% per quarter. 

Partly, I am projecting a tentative 4-5 year timeline for beginning to cash out for myself based on age and health and because I don't really need the money right now, and also there is just a bit of an expectation (perhaps gamble) that BTC prices are going to be decently higher in 4-5 years, as compared with today's price.. so may be a better time to start cashing out at that time (without any real need to delay beyond that time, tentatively speaking).

USA


Holding onto 10BTC is not a bad plan.

Let's face it.  Both of us consider that we have done a decent amount of BTC accumulation already.  So the next part of our plan has to do with the systems in which we maintain some BTC holdings, but also we have to consider cashing out price points and time line. 

I am becoming more attached to a kind of maintainable ongoing cashing out plan.. (such as the 1% per quarter plan that I have been spouting on about in the past few days) which would also allow maintenance of a minimum amount within my BTC holdings while continuously cashing out in perpetuity no matter what the BTC price.  The minimum amount is maintained because I believe that I have accumulated way more than necessary to reach the cashing out objectives, so therefore there remains a cushion that allows the maintenance of a minimum amount  of BTC, even while continuing to cash out.

If we think of $70, then currently at $3.5k we are in the 50x of that.  Of course, at $19k, we were in the 271x of that.

It's a bit of a stretch to attempt to create expectations with speculations about what you would have done back then, if you had known.

Hairy's 100x projection does seem to be a bit more reasonably reachable in the next 10 years or so than the 1,000x that Biodom was projecting.. that could take a bit longer to play out and of course more difficult to achieve based on the other systems that 1000x might have to supplant for bitcoin to be sustainable in that 1000x rather than 100x price range (from here).

This is a good time to develop a plan.  If you cash out 50% of your BTC at $50k how much BTC you gonna have left at $350k? 1BTC?  hahahahaha 

Better have a plan, just in case.   I'm thinking to prepare for various scenarios, it is good to have a BTC price movement plan and also a timeline-based plan.