There are a lot of issues they haven't addressed, like the utterly inadequate trading engine they are using. What Gox must keep in mind is"With greater power comes greater responsibilities", they choose to be in this position, they are now the "face" of bitcoin trading, then they have to keep up. Actually, they addressed it. This is what they've said: Does this mean that we are giving up fighting lag? Hell, no. We are working on it by creating a new trade engine that will solve many problems, but it’s not a magic bullet.Sorry, I forgot about that, but I don't think they have fully realized the seriousness of the problem on their part, although I still believe them to be the most reliable. |
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There are a lot of issues they haven't addressed, like the utterly inadequate trading engine they are using. What Gox must keep in mind is"With greater power comes greater responsibilities", they choose to be in this position, they are now the "face" of bitcoin trading, then they have to keep up.
If anything, this letter demonstrates how super-bullish the market is. People controlling vast amount of resources trying desperately to obtain as many bitcoins as possible, resorting to all kinds of means, dumping, trolling, and even DDOSing, just for some more bitcoins.
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Would it be possible for Gox to heavily fine or restrict / place minimums on orders? During the review of the timelapse and also just watching the daily charts, there are hordes of 0.01 and 0.02 buys and sells. With the way Gox's database writes slowly, these would seem to stall the system and buy someone time. It wouldn't really make it a true "trade whatever amount you want system" though. But if they had minimums, it would stand to reason they'd be able to process orders a little faster.
Within a year or two, most of the users will only trade 0.01 or 0.02 per order, only whales like us can trade 10 or 100 bitcoins in one go.  |
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20 x $5M (nice sounding average?) x 22 (working days in a month) = $2.2 BILLION looking to make its way into the BTC market per MONTH!
$2.2B x 12 = $26.4B
At $90 (ish), we're at a $1B market cap.
Prepare for 1 BTC = $2,376.00 within 12 months. And this is just with current demand - as the price continues to rise, more and more asset managers with even larger balances will be calling and requesting to invest in BTC. $2,376 is just the bottom end. O.O
Talk to your kids about extrapolation, before someone else does. Hey, I can dream, can't I?  It appears that it is Exante that is dealing with the large loads:
"Exante, a Malta-based asset manager, set up a Bitcoin fund last year that was largely intended as a fun punt. Wealthy investors each put in $1,000 when Bitcoins were trading at $13 on the understanding they could lose the original investment. Exante predicted that public and media interest would take off when Bitcoins were trading at $100. Managing partner Gatis Eglitis claims they are now getting 20 calls a day from large asset managers looking to invest up to $100m."
If anyone here truly believes that a $100MM inflow into BTC is forthcoming, then you have clearly never been involved in the due diligence process that would precede that type of investment. The liquidity issue is a real problem as is the systematic risk. In theory there are probably several money managers that would consider BTC. But if one scratches the surface, most will quickly see that the logistics would be next to impossible. This market moves erratically at low volumes..... Tradehill dark pools... Not just Tradehill dark pool, there are many ways to buy offline, actually the "dark" market of bitcoin maybe larger than the "bright" one. Good luck finding the millions of coins needed for institutional and large hedge fund investments without driving the price to absurd heights. This little-known corporation alone has sold 250,000 bitcoins. But yes, there is no reason the price would not be driven up many-fold. Why should they expect to get them cheap? There are only so many coins, and anyone holding a large percentage of them is a potential market manipulator. Hence why they would not invest in large numbers. Do you think hedge fund managers are stupid? They typically don't chase performance. They would never indiscriminately start buying Bitcoins into the stratosphere. They already think this is a bubble..... Well, it's you who think they're stupid. Mind you, the total amount of fiats now invested into bitcoin is only about 1/10 of what some traders can lose in a single deal. It's only expensive to common folks like you and me. If bitcoin is a bubble has to ultimately depend on its value, which is not just the total economic activities it's supporting, as many of the people here believe. FYI I came very close to starting a Bitcoin hedge fund. I put it on hold after the price shot up too fast. I was hoping for gradual returns over 2013 and was aiming it at HNWIs (because I realize that institutions would not invest for several reasons). This parabolic action made me step back.......it's a much different risk/reward ratio at these levels. If it holds here for awhile, I may rethink. It would need to retrace substantially..... Yes, many many funds are larger than the entire market cap of BTC. That's the problem....I'm not saying it's expensive although this is a relative term. An overpriced piece of bubble gum can be 'expensive'. I'm saying there is not enough liquidity for any serious level of investment. You're acting as if funds would dive in at any price simply because they have the money to lose......No, it doesn't work that way. They must account to investors and have a compelling sales pitch. BTC is a very interesting story, so part of the pitch is there. But one has to think twice before buying into a parabolic move with enormous levels of systematic risk (Mt Gox, DDoS, etc), extremely low levels of liquidity, low transparency, et al..... I'm bullish BTC; I love the concept. That doesn't mean I would buy hand over fist. Perhaps there are money managers who feel quite differently. I'm not sure BTC can last forever on speculation, but I certainly see the short-term potential for a beautiful bubble. I would rather it gain traction in the marketplace, though. Bitcoin is very useful as a store of value, not just as currency. A store of value which has no central point of failure is very attractive, since if the holding is decentralized enough, no single group can cause a market crash, unlike many other financial instruments. And anyone who has properly done their homework will find it much easier and cheaper to secure, compared with, e.g., gold. I don't know about hedge-fund managers, but I think bitcoin's bargaining chip value can not be underestimated, most of those in the real world don't want to do away with the government, but can not tolerate it to have its own way with the fiats, with BTC it's just like you have an opposition party to the fiat money, it may never get elected, but is enough of a deterrence that the governments will be forced to think twice before they act, I would be surprised if no one out there is backing bitcoin for this purpose. And no, I would panic if a single fund suddenly invest 1 billion dollars into bitcoin, but several million dollars here and there, coming from a variety of sources is good, for the fund themselves even if all the money is lost the loss is still tiny, but if it's the opposite the return is significant. |
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20 x $5M (nice sounding average?) x 22 (working days in a month) = $2.2 BILLION looking to make its way into the BTC market per MONTH!
$2.2B x 12 = $26.4B
At $90 (ish), we're at a $1B market cap.
Prepare for 1 BTC = $2,376.00 within 12 months. And this is just with current demand - as the price continues to rise, more and more asset managers with even larger balances will be calling and requesting to invest in BTC. $2,376 is just the bottom end. O.O
Talk to your kids about extrapolation, before someone else does. Hey, I can dream, can't I? It appears that it is Exante that is dealing with the large loads:
"Exante, a Malta-based asset manager, set up a Bitcoin fund last year that was largely intended as a fun punt. Wealthy investors each put in $1,000 when Bitcoins were trading at $13 on the understanding they could lose the original investment. Exante predicted that public and media interest would take off when Bitcoins were trading at $100. Managing partner Gatis Eglitis claims they are now getting 20 calls a day from large asset managers looking to invest up to $100m."
If anyone here truly believes that a $100MM inflow into BTC is forthcoming, then you have clearly never been involved in the due diligence process that would precede that type of investment. The liquidity issue is a real problem as is the systematic risk. In theory there are probably several money managers that would consider BTC. But if one scratches the surface, most will quickly see that the logistics would be next to impossible. This market moves erratically at low volumes..... Tradehill dark pools... Not just Tradehill dark pool, there are many ways to buy offline, actually the "dark" market of bitcoin maybe larger than the "bright" one. Good luck finding the millions of coins needed for institutional and large hedge fund investments without driving the price to absurd heights. This little-known corporation alone has sold 250,000 bitcoins. But yes, there is no reason the price would not be driven up many-fold. Why should they expect to get them cheap? There are only so many coins, and anyone holding a large percentage of them is a potential market manipulator. Hence why they would not invest in large numbers. Do you think hedge fund managers are stupid? They typically don't chase performance. They would never indiscriminately start buying Bitcoins into the stratosphere. They already think this is a bubble..... Well, it's you who think they're stupid. Mind you, the total amount of fiats now invested into bitcoin is only about 1/10 of what some traders can lose in a single deal. It's only expensive to common folks like you and me. If bitcoin is a bubble has to ultimately depend on its value, which is not just the total economic activities it's supporting, as many of the people here believe. |
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Bears are selling with style!  Here in a couple hours we will start the evening rally when new funds are unleashed to waiting bulls! And henceforth these bears will continue to have a pair of horns rammed up their ever so hairy assholes! I think some bears need to get dragged kicking and screaming into the era of expensive coins. expensive? They look cheap to me  Cheap? You go buy a hundred of them right now I dare you! I would prefer to say:" Yes, they are expensive, but these are the least expensive coins you probably can get from now on, anyway there will be no more than 20 million of them in your whole life time, better grab some before the supply drains out!" |
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20 x $5M (nice sounding average?) x 22 (working days in a month) = $2.2 BILLION looking to make its way into the BTC market per MONTH!
$2.2B x 12 = $26.4B
At $90 (ish), we're at a $1B market cap.
Prepare for 1 BTC = $2,376.00 within 12 months. And this is just with current demand - as the price continues to rise, more and more asset managers with even larger balances will be calling and requesting to invest in BTC. $2,376 is just the bottom end. O.O
Talk to your kids about extrapolation, before someone else does. Hey, I can dream, can't I? It appears that it is Exante that is dealing with the large loads:
"Exante, a Malta-based asset manager, set up a Bitcoin fund last year that was largely intended as a fun punt. Wealthy investors each put in $1,000 when Bitcoins were trading at $13 on the understanding they could lose the original investment. Exante predicted that public and media interest would take off when Bitcoins were trading at $100. Managing partner Gatis Eglitis claims they are now getting 20 calls a day from large asset managers looking to invest up to $100m."
If anyone here truly believes that a $100MM inflow into BTC is forthcoming, then you have clearly never been involved in the due diligence process that would precede that type of investment. The liquidity issue is a real problem as is the systematic risk. In theory there are probably several money managers that would consider BTC. But if one scratches the surface, most will quickly see that the logistics would be next to impossible. This market moves erratically at low volumes..... Tradehill dark pools... Not just Tradehill dark pool, there are many ways to buy offline, actually the "dark" market of bitcoin maybe larger than the "bright" one. Good luck finding the millions of coins needed for institutional and large hedge fund investments without driving the price to absurd heights. This little-known corporation alone has sold 250,000 bitcoins. But yes, there is no reason the price would not be driven up many-fold. Why should they expect to get them cheap? There are only so many coins, and anyone holding a large percentage of them is a potential market manipulator. |
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Bears are selling with style! Here in a couple hours we will start the evening rally when new funds are unleashed to waiting bulls! And henceforth these bears will continue to have a pair of horns rammed up their ever so hairy assholes! I think some bears need to get dragged kicking and screaming into the era of expensive coins. |
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20 x $5M (nice sounding average?) x 22 (working days in a month) = $2.2 BILLION looking to make its way into the BTC market per MONTH!
$2.2B x 12 = $26.4B
At $90 (ish), we're at a $1B market cap.
Prepare for 1 BTC = $2,376.00 within 12 months. And this is just with current demand - as the price continues to rise, more and more asset managers with even larger balances will be calling and requesting to invest in BTC. $2,376 is just the bottom end. O.O
Talk to your kids about extrapolation, before someone else does. Hey, I can dream, can't I? It appears that it is Exante that is dealing with the large loads:
"Exante, a Malta-based asset manager, set up a Bitcoin fund last year that was largely intended as a fun punt. Wealthy investors each put in $1,000 when Bitcoins were trading at $13 on the understanding they could lose the original investment. Exante predicted that public and media interest would take off when Bitcoins were trading at $100. Managing partner Gatis Eglitis claims they are now getting 20 calls a day from large asset managers looking to invest up to $100m."
If anyone here truly believes that a $100MM inflow into BTC is forthcoming, then you have clearly never been involved in the due diligence process that would precede that type of investment. The liquidity issue is a real problem as is the systematic risk. In theory there are probably several money managers that would consider BTC. But if one scratches the surface, most will quickly see that the logistics would be next to impossible. This market moves erratically at low volumes..... Tradehill dark pools... Not just Tradehill dark pool, there are many ways to buy offline, actually the "dark" market of bitcoin maybe larger than the "bright" one. |
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Bears are selling with style! |
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Could we crowdfund an exchange?
A crowdfunded, nonprofit Bitcoin exchange. Ultra low fees. Or something.
this idea needs more love. Indeed.. pretty sure it would be crowdfunded extremely fast ! Has anyone started at BTC crowd funding like site? Shit that's a good idea! It's by no means so simple, if you want to operate as a money transmitter in pretty much any country, you need to do some really serious legal heavy-lifting, in fact, that's partly the reason why Gox is in a leading position, they do very well on this front. And almost anyone who wants to go through all this will want to make some serious money, not just enough money to feed his family. |
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Someone is massively profiting from these swings. Whether it's MtGox's flaky servers or DDOS or whatever. This isn't the behaviour of a grown-up currency.
I have no doubts in the sentiments of buyers right now but this kind of volatility is getting me worried.
1. Bitcoin exchanges have no daily limits, unlike that of many other financial instruments. 2. By percentage variation, this volatility is significantly smaller then when it was at the 2011-12 bottom. |
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Anyone actually able to withdraw LR from BTCChina (I'm sold 1 coin there to test, but when I click withdraw nothing happens)?
I have a 950 yuan balance and am trying to withdraw 500.
Screenshot please? |
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Where do you short? My bitcoins are ready for you to borrow.  |
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Exodus to where? Slovenia/Russia/China? If they run away with your money you probably can't even figure out how to get it back.
PS: For anyone who wants to use BTCChina, a caution: for obvious reasons they are not a registered corporation and you can't even find out who the owner is(I know his identity through other means though), so use at your own risk. But if you need any help with the translation or other things, feel free to ask me.
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Sure, and here I am ! It's just that I think gold also has some room to go up, and being diversified makes me sleep better (even if PMs are now a tiny portion of my savings) Bitcoin can still affect PM prices even if you are right. Physical PMs can continue to exist. But the paper ones have no reason to exist in a world with bitcoin. |
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Why are you selling? Even if you want to sell, why clean out your whole position?  It makes no sense to me. I have been through Gox hacking, pirate dumping, chain-forking, and numerous massive dips and the 2011 bottom, the largest selling position I have taken is probably just 30%. |
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Do we really need a 24*7 exchange? Unlike other old-world exchanges, they don't even have time to do proper offline upgrade.
Why should a system need to be offline in order to upgrade? That's what redundant servers and transparent failover are for. They should have made more than enough money to hire somebody to build the right kind of infrastructure by now. Maybe, but when you have enough excuses for not doing so, why not? And I don't know how much the crazy volatility of bitcoin price has to do with the absence of a daily limit. |
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Do we really need a 24*7 exchange? Unlike other old-world exchanges, they don't even have time to do proper offline upgrade.
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Hmmm.....how much bigger is gold's market? Can a part of gold price's erosion be attributed to ...Bitcoin?
Absolutely. That has been my contention since day one. As for proof, you haven't been listening. I'm the proof. Living proof since, what, April 2011? Okay but it should happen on a significant scale only recently right? Bitcoin price went into detonation mode and gold price fell at the same time, something similar happened before? |
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