Bitcoin’s transaction market share will drop precipitously, but it’s share of the economic pie of crypto will remain very significant and grow because of the reason I stated. BTC miners/whales do not care about transaction volume, they care about value of the transactions and thus the amount of fees that those whose transacts fit within 1MB block size can afford to pay. For example, when every BTC transaction is $10 million, then a $5000 fee per transaction will not be a problem.
What would the price of BTC need to be for such an high fee ($5000) to make it viable? I presume it would need to be really high, otherwise at some point even the rich would find other ways to move the wealth? However, there are other chains coming which scale to very high transaction volume such as EOS and my own project.
Also there is Raiden for offchain on Ethereum and perhaps they did not design it to have the same “pay to anyone” flaw.
It looks like news of LN transactions on mainnet happened yesterday when the pump started, I wonder if it's related. The video got a lot of views: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a73Gz3Tvx3k15,300 views, same as current price lol, and in less than a day. Must have created buzz and pumped the price further. Im not gonna lie tho, it looks pretty slick. What if it ends up working well? Let's say it catches on and the average Joe end user happily can buy coffees with BTC finally (they don't care about any of the technical details anyway), and there is no segwit attack and we all get rich from holding BTC? It's a possibility. Also the problem from going from coin to coin is that if I want to put $50k worth of BTC in some altcoin to hedge, and this altcoin pumps and you double your money... you are going to need some serious verifications on the exchange to withdraw $100k worth of money. Poloniex only allows $2k daily, so you would be withdrawing daily one month and a half. Not looking forward to give my dox to some exchange, I don't trust them. There's also the taxes problem from trading between coins (if you want to buy some real estate you are going to need to explain how did you made all that money, and in some countries trades increase the tax). I just get an headache thinking about it and decide just hold through it, maybe some minor altcoin trading but nothing that would leave me months of withdrawing on exchanges. Too stressful considering exchanges can disappear at any time. |
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Looks like someone is really nervous about current bitcoin prices and they want to facilitate shorting bitcoin: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-04/the-next-big-short-hedge-funds-prepare-to-trade-against-bitcoinWe'll see how it goes. We have certainty whales on our side (those of us that are near %100 BTC just want to see it go higher) which will fight the shorts and try to liquidate them. But its clear someone up there wants to short it into oblivion, we'll see who wins. Everyone that has been calling tops for 2017 has been proven wrong thus far, it just keeps going higher. The psychological "collectible" effect of the 21 million limit is very strong and creates a permabull market now that a lot of people are catching up with it. Im on a position where I don't really care if there is a crash, I wouldn't lose money and i know long term we are going higher, would liquidate some of my alts to buy cheaper anyway. |
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I still don't get how (if the supposed segwit hack/attack/thieft happens) the transition into BTCsatoshi would be like...
Considering that "the most serene whales" aren't for sure going to support BCash or any other altcoin, and considering we aren't going to simply roll back to August 1st and act as if nothing happened... I assume that if you just avoid storing and accepting segwit addresses you are good to go? that's what I've been doing.
I also assume after such a disaster nobody would use segwit ever again, so we wouldn't even need to remove it from the network. In any case, how could it be removed? through another softfork? or maybe it cannot be removed? (and I doubt a hardfork to remove it would happen). It is a real clusterfuck of a situation to be honest. Let's just hope nothing happens, im enjoying the bull market.
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Ok this is my overall view: In late 2018 to early 2019, fancy LN wallets that even your grandma will be able to use will be starting to be widespread, which will look like this: https://webmshare.com/OXNbmThis will alleviate people complaining about high fees and slow transaction times. Note that most people are idiots that leave their coins in Coinbase, so if they just want to transact bitcoin, they just care about the bitcoin going from A to B really fast and cheap, and these wallets will allow for that. Anyone with real capital in bitcoin doesn't care about that, but even myself if I wanted to pay 10 bucks with bitcoin, would use LN because I don't really care that much about having army grade encryption + maximized decentralization to send 10 bucks around the world. LN may be a decent tradeoff for such small amounts. So with the mainstream users happy, and with the big capital also happy because no blocksize increase, I think we could keep going higher. Of course it's yet to be seen how viable this is to maintain with 1MB as more and more blocks get filled with LN transactions and then we'll have new drama when the whales oppose to hardfork once again to increase the blocksize but we'll see how it goes. Of course the segwit risk is still there... but I haven't seen "the whales" supporting BCH and are staying legacy, so they must have a plan and it doesn't include altcoins. In any case im keeping a decent amount of BCH because I have a gut feeling which may be ridiculous but here we go: I think CSW has satoshi's keys.. (or some) even if he isn't satoshi, he was part of the thing. These funds must be locked somewhere until X years, maybe to avoid tax related stuff since after 10 years in some countries tax crimes expire (I think). Another reason why I think he was involved is because satoshi released bitcoin on windows, and he comes across as a "windows guy". And of course, I doubt CSW is stupid enough to try to pull a satoshi and take it this far if he didn't knew that the real part of the satoshi "team" wasn't dead, or allowed him to play this role, otherwise he would be at constant risk of being ridiculed by the real satoshi. If he (or they) moves some coins in 2020, BCH may pump and who knows the consequences of that. Of course maybe this is incredibly stupid and nothing happens, it's just another theory that I have. If after 2020 CSW has not provided real proof of being satoshi, then we can totally discard that he has anything but a bluff. |
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Here are the event's results. I didn't watch it except for some bootleg highlights on YT. I guess Bisping is happy to get another check from the UFC before he retires. Lol.
It is hard to see Bisping sleeping in the ring twice now,GSP chocked him out and now Gastelum knocked him unconscious and he is still not planning to retire as he still wants to fight again,which is good for pay checks but with the fights he had in his career and taking into consideration his age he should retire but i hope he is planning to retire in an event in England in front of his home fans. Michael Bisping is insane. To fight just 21 days after being chocked by GSP is just nuts. No wonder he got KO'd again. Been saying it for a while: he should retire, but he loves to fight, so he isn't doing it for the money. Remember that he has a secured job as a broadcaster in one of the biggest TV networks in the work (Fox Sports) so im pretty sure that he is well off financially. He just hates to retire with a loss, so he must want to win a couple times before he retires, similar to Mirko Crocop and other fighters that went the same route. |
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Finally. I think that due to the recent flurry of airdrop scams, ICO's received almost no attention and now that the airdrop scams are receding, the attention to ICO's has pretty much diminished. Now, the hype is all around masternodes but that will soon go away as well. I guess, the real question is, what is next??
The ICO craze is going to be replaced by the Bitcoin forks craze, but don't claim victory, ICO's will always exist. It is always potentially profitable to develop an ICO as long as there are buyers. There is nothing wrong with the ICO model within itself, but at this point, using ICO for your project will make your project look like a total joke. It is better and much more elegant if the project has a code that delivers coins into the market instead of distributing them in some sort of auction. |
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Super bitcoin on Dec 17
Jan 2 bitcoin cash plus
Jan 28, b2x 2nd attempt
What do you think all these forks will do to the altcoins market? Do you think people will stop taking these forks seriously? Will b2x succeed this time?
I think this is so bad for the reputation of the entire crypto market
Forking Bitcoin has become a lucrative business for both owners of bitcoins and developers of said forks which get to premine them (remember the premine on Bitcoin Gold). They are mostly useless memes. Some may have some value. For example it is interesting to see different hashing algorithms in action, but then again they could have done it in an altcoin. It's mostly jokes. Just wait for them to pump them proceed to dump. |
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People claim that bitcoin will really start playing a role in the next economic crackdown. EG: when debt is too high, people will defect into bitcoin and leave the current broken economic system behind, promoting the biggest wealth redistribution in history(something like what happened with the tally system back in england). Will the system allow for this? They would lose all control. I know this has been discussed in a higher level before, but lets put ourselves in that situation how would it unfold. I know some may argue that it wont be a quick process but rather adoption over time. However even if that's the case there has to be a tipping point. That is the process I want to understand.
What bitcoin needs to be above all other things in order to profit from a potential debt downwards spiral doom scenario, is to be, censorship resistant money that cannot be confiscated. This is what you need, you don't need fast and cheap transactions, that could come later on. So forget about visa, mastercard or any of that. To resist a big tsunami that you will not be able to dodge, you don't want a fast lightweight boat, but a solid bunker. When the tide is over you will be rich and laughing at all the guys that were bragging with their yatchs. After surviving this with great gains, if someone comes up with a coin that's as solid as BTC but fast and cheap with no downsides, then you can invest some of your BTC into that. So far no one has solved that problem, so be thankful you got BTC to put your money there, otherwise you would have been stuck with cumbersome gold. I can't find any other asset that is neutral to a potential USD collapse that would lead to profits. |
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Roger Ver will continue scamming noobs with their pull and push aka pump and dumps by playing with the hashrate in cooperation with Bitmain as long as possible, always threatening with a "flippening scenario", but each time will be less and less efficient. At some point people will stop playing along and they will end up lossing money. Let's see how long this Operation Dragonslayer meme lasts for.
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The best way to not lose money is to not day trade. Most day traders lose money, it's a fact. You can't time the market at such small amounts of time period. You are better off buying the dips and holding long term. If you did that with Bitcoin you wouldn't be worrying about daytrading shitcoins with low volume which could lead you to holding a bag for ages, if not forever.
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It would be cool if you can simply add Bitcoin Gold to this so we can keep track of the price. I have tried to add Bitcoin Gold myself, filled the template up, problem is that the BTG ticket is already taken by some other coin so I can't add it, it gives an error. You should allow repeating tokens since some newer coins use the same tokens as older coins but these older coins are pretty irrelevant by now.
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Well there you have it, as soon as we broke $7597 we shoot up to $7830, with the subsequent struggle to break $7888. We need to beat that stupid wick to consolidate the current bull market. I hope this is not a double top. Being so close to all time high and still being 1 and a half month away from 2018, I believe ATH before 2018 is a safe bet even if we dip now.
No dip coming. We just got out of the dip. No reason a dip would come now, it is getting ready to push to new ATHs. Might hang around mid-to-high 7000s for a few days before breaking 8000 since it has already gone up $1000 the past couple days, but the dip is over, bulls are in charge again. With segwit2x over and Bitcoin Cash pump over as well, I would bet on a continued bull market above $8000 for the next couple of weeks too. Potential FUDdenings I see: 1) Tether delivers a nice bitfinex'd situation 2) Another banning of whatever in a big country (exchanges, mining or possession of BTC) That's about it for now. 2x will still fork but nobody will care. |
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If you think about it... if the fee is going up a lot, it is either
1) Because it's getting used a lot to transact
2) Because it's getting spammed (attacked)
And if 1) or 2) are true, while the price keeps going up, it just confirms how BTC is highly valued. People are ready to pay these fees or BTC is important enough that attackers are wasting billions spamming the network. As long as price goes up it's good news.
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Well there you have it, as soon as we broke $7597 we shoot up to $7830, with the subsequent struggle to break $7888. We need to beat that stupid wick to consolidate the current bull market. I hope this is not a double top. Being so close to all time high and still being 1 and a half month away from 2018, I believe ATH before 2018 is a safe bet even if we dip now.
No dip coming. We just got out of the dip. No reason a dip would come now, it is getting ready to push to new ATHs. Might hang around mid-to-high 7000s for a few days before breaking 8000 since it has already gone up $1000 the past couple days, but the dip is over, bulls are in charge again. There was a pretty nice dip from $7953 to $7533... that was a good trade if you sold and bought the dip, which I didn't. Now we are re-testing $8000 again. Notice that on Bitstamp $8000 was not reached, we topped at $7997. This is most likely because Bitfinex reached $8040 then started dipping, not allowing Bitstamp to reach $8000... pretty annoying. We'll find out soon if we can hold above $8000. |
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Well there you have it, as soon as we broke $7597 we shoot up to $7830, with the subsequent struggle to break $7888. We need to beat that stupid wick to consolidate the current bull market. I hope this is not a double top. Being so close to all time high and still being 1 and a half month away from 2018, I believe ATH before 2018 is a safe bet even if we dip now.
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My theory is that there can only be one major coin competing in a certain hashing algorithm.
2 big coins competing for a piece of the SHA256 pie... not gonna happen... the balance must turn somewhere, either in BTC's favor, or BCH's favor (or whatever other competing big SHA256 currency). 2 co-existing big coins fighting for the same pie, I don't see viable.
If im not mistaken, BCH will not take BTC's pie, since the biggest stakeholders support BTC that I know of.
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Very easy prediction: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2383973.msg24356036#msg24356036Classic pump and dump antics from Roger Ver's camp. Now we are approaching all time highs again. That $7888 peak with a flash crash is going to be a bit annoying to pass I think, but we will get there soon. Billonaires are loading up on BTC for whatever reason. Ledger X and CME is here right for xmas time. I think ATH before 2018 is pretty much guaranteed. Let's see if we pass $7597 before trying to get that ugly ass red $7888 peak candle out first. |
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