Beware of ducks which walk and talk like pirates.. and are named pirate. I guess I can take that warning down now.

New avatar (may need to refresh to see).

I see what you mean. No official report from mtGox, nothing on the coinLab website (and I wouldn't particularly trust my funds with a mining pool service). When I first read it, I kept thinking coinBase instead, since they are already known to store coins offline in a bank vault, and they already have a ton of US customers. 

Money first of all, coinLab is paying them for this. Also less risk/responsibility for mtgox, since coinLab will be managing the USD funds. An official partnership also enhances the professionalism of MtGox. The best part is even as this further cements their role as the biggest exchange, it does so in a way which distributes the risk. I'm not so worried now about a possible problem or crisis at mtgox, because even if the exchange goes down, my funds should be safe with coinLab.

Yup.

And I just figured out the point of the ask wall we've been periodically seeing: dude puts it up just so that he can take it down.

Watch what happens when half of it gets removed. You'll see what I mean.

Still waiting... 

Any second, its gonna break the all-time high?? 



1st of the month? 

"Higher is better."  -Bill Gates

I don't think you are using mass index correctly here. You were using them correctly on the 6-hour and 2-hour charts, because on those scales the bulges corresponded to counter-trend, downward volatility bursts.

But the reason the MACD and the Slow Stochastic don't seem to be confirming is because they are oscillators. They work when the system is closed, but go out of whack if new money is entering the system (or leaving).

That's why the non-oscillating indicators (OBV and Accumulation/Distribution) work better for evaluating the medium/long-term trends, IMHO (see below).








If OBV were unchanged on an upward burst, you could expect a reversal/retrace to follow. But here the trend is up and strong. This should relieve some fear of reversal. As long as we haven't gone exponential and bid depth stays strong, I don't see reason to expect it unless there's some bad news which triggers a big downward burst (one visible on the 12-hour or daily chart).

Ah, you're right, it is a log chart. And so what if short-term momentum is sagging/consolidating around $30-$32. We saw the same thing around $20-$22, which your channel conveniently excludes.

Your channel is biased, it already broke below around $27. You can draw a triangle there too and then see how it continued upward.

That chart starts at $20, and its linear. This rally started at least as far back as $14! And use log scale, we're still in the channel..

He's gone. Guess we spooked him 

It's the same guy from $21, trying to accumulate more below $30 now! 

Thanks for the link.



I see now that the most recent dividend payment was on Feb 1st and 2nd. I see that the IPO back in August 2012 was 10M out of 100M shares, but I'm not seeing a list of share issues / tranches since then. Is there a list of quantities issued since?

I see your point about fact checking. I wish I could put in enough time to read thread-upon-thread to locate quality info about SatoshiDice more recent than August 2012. In the past, I did have time to browse threads collecting info on the big scams going around (pirateat40) and warn others to the best of my ability. But nobody pays me to do Due Diligence on likely scams, so I appreciate direct links to quality info. Its reassuring both to myself and others who are rightly skeptical.



Like I already said, of course anyone can check the math on the volume of coins which pass through the satoshidice addresses. But it would be quite a bit harder to verify those coins are genuine players and not house funds being spun through.


If they're playing with house funds, any losses go back directly to the house, not through dividends. But you are right that fraud is less likely the longer that dividends are being paid (unless new capital is being raised, which makes fraud more likely).




The purpose is maximum gain for the issuer, at whatever price they can sell shares. The price of the stock is only important to the buyers hopeful to resell for gains later.

Question: is that ~60% price less than stated here: "All future share issuance will be made only a) subject to approval by MPEx and b) at a price no less than the higher of the 1 day average price and the 30 day average price then current on MPEx." 2.2. The Terms of the IPO. section a



I'm also sorry to hijack the thread. I didn't start my own thread for exactly what you mention, that I would prefer to have quality research and fact checking. But that's a huge time sink when most of the info is scattered among various forum threads (another red flag in itself). As for FUD, I don't consider myself a conspiracy-minded individual. You don't see me all over the BFL threads accusing them of fraud (enough BFL doubters already). I called out pirate (and as many of his associates as I had time for) not because of "sour grapes" nor because I get kicks from conspiracy-trolling. I called them out because I was rightly skeptical.

You are right that some SD skeptic (just myself and EskimoBob, anyone else?) should start a consolidated thread. That somebody hasn't already goes to show the gullibility (or willing-to-believe) of many "investors" in bitcoin "Securities".

First off, to my knowledge so far they haven't sent any profits to any shareholders. And secondly, if they do start paying dividends, they could just be paying them from the principal/IPO cost of the shares. Then its in their interest to keep doing so, as long they issue and sell more shares.

The SatoshiDice operator(s) can use the house funds to simulate players and revenue, obviously at no risk. Whether there are investors or not has no effect on the possibility of inflating players and revenue by simply generating a bunch of transactions to the SatoshiDice addresses. However, if they are raising funds from investors or trying to sell the business (and they are), then to inflate revenues is clearly in seller's best short-term greedy interest. They don't care about the long-term viability because they're selling their stake.

Procreation of the most greedy, or "survival of the fittest", is a myth perpetuated by sociopaths who don't understand evolution. On both a biological level and a societal level, the rule of thumb is "survival of the most cooperative." Mutual aid and benefit is the only way organisms thrive in an environment. It starves and goes extinct if it eats the last bit of its food source, so for long-term success it must act in a way that is mutually beneficial to its food source.

Same with humans; acting greedy might be advantageous in the very short-term, but to thrive long-term requires acting in cooperative ways that are mutually beneficial to the social environment. If not, you'll be a societal outcast and have nobody to trade with, and you'll starve if you aren't jailed/killed.

For starters, SatoshiDICE could make an official statement about their profits. These estimates are nothing more than rumors running wild.

To discount the theory, MPOE (or whoever runs the stock exchange) could do an official audit, correctly using the blockchain (eg, mark a cluster of addresses as their proven reserves for payouts, so we know they aren't spinning their reserves to simulate players). Transparency (and common sense) is the best tool to combat fraud. What do you think it is that gives us trust in bitcoin? Its the transparency of the system, not some bullshit chart going skyhigh.



Is that google docs spreadsheet an official statement? Who released it?

I was asking why you use linear. The wish to see a log channel was just me thinking out loud, not demanding something from you. I'll get around to drawing my own...

Why do you use a linear chart? I'd like to see the channel with log pricing.

So its an estimate from the blockchain. At this point, those profits are as real as pirateat40 profits. Notice how SDICE is not confirming or reporting official numbers. They are just letting people run wild with their own imaginations so they can sell more "shares"...



Doesn't sound very realistic does it? More revenues from people willing to risk all-or-nothing dice, or from people trading day after day on mtgox? I don't think so

Is that an official number, or an estimate from the blockchain?