Bitcoin generally has been risk-on for the past 3 years. There are times when its not correlated  but for most of the time is it. Look what happened during the covid crash. Bitcoin crashed also with stocks.

This banking crisis is considered risk-off but its different because people are panicking about their funds inside their bank. If they disappear they are in trouble. Hence why many bought bitcoin because with bitcoin your money doesn't disappear and they also can't print an unlimited number like fiat.

So if there are more bank failures its bullish for bitcoin. But if the entire economy falls into a deep recession and stocks go down... so might bitcoin.

I watched his video with bankless on YouTube and read his article but I am confused.

He says that now they are guaranteeing 4T in assets. However this is borrowing future money for present money and shouldn’t cause inflation because nothing is created technically.

However he says when fed will cut, all this dry power will go into the market but how exactly? That money that was added to the balance sheet will stay on there until those USG and MBS mature and then it’ll roll off. I don’t get where he says the 4T will have an affect of the economy.

If you google “CME fed tool” there is a calculator there that shows you the probability of hikes for the coming meetings in the future.

According to CME right now there is a chance we get a cut in the Summer and something like 100 bps cut at the end of the year.

The fed keeps saying banks are doing good and not too worry but this data from the bond traders suggests that something will break and the fed will be forced to cut.

This project still exists? I remember it being called Gigabyte and I remember getting the free airdrops just by having a Bitcoin balance.

I think for every 1 Gbtye you got they sent you 2 Blackbytes for free. It was neat but i could never actually send the blackbtyes anywhere, I kept getting an error.

It’s good that it’s still alive, I will check it out.

There is too much money out there and this is the problem. Since there is too much money out there, everything costs more. Everything went up except wages.

Compared to a few years ago, before Covid. How much did you pay for food or housing? Probably went up 50% and how much did wages grow? Maybe 10%. Only the rich benefitted from this and not poor or middle class.

This BTFD won’t apply to any purchases after March 15 2023. So they can’t YOLO into anything. Right now they won’t be buying anything because they need as much liquidity as possible for withdraws. They also are cutting lending for many customers to keep their liquidity.

And who knows if this will work. Why keep your money at a bank that pays 0% and can possibly fail when you can put it in the money markets and get 5% instead. I wonder how these banks will make money and survive.

I listened to Powell today and he didn’t say anything about rate cuts. Especially in 3 months. The projection was like 5.1% at the end of the year and about a percentage lower at the end of 2024.

The bond market and your CME fed tool is saying otherwise. So who do we believe? It seems the market is calling his bluff but it’s too early to tell.

If these banks keep failing one after the other then it’s perhaps possible for a cut in June but impossible to tell right now.

They obviously wouldn’t of have existed. Many missed the Dogecoin pump and so that’s why they started to have clone coins and many made lots of money if they got in early.
Eventually it got out of Hand how many of those dog type meme coins came out. Some were outright scams and many got an-99% loss buying them.
It happens in every market cycle pretty much.

If you pull up a monthly chart for CS you will see that it had many issues long time ago. Compare that chart to other banks and you can see that it must of been doing something wrong if the stock kept tanking this much year after year.

About 6 months ago the CDS went very high and many assumed it would default then. However it lived another 6 months before the Silvergate bank closure caused enough panic and bank runs for it to finally fail.

The reason why he is choosing $1M because he wants some new retail trader to read this and figure he might be correct and they will dump all their savings into Bitcoin and it’ll go up a bit before heading back down.

It’s no different than people thinking doge will go to $5 or $10 or so. People saw it was $0.50 and figured it would hit $5 at least because it’s a low number and they would 10x their money. However they had no idea how large the market cap would need to be to achieve that.

There were tons and tons of people that wanted to take that bet if you read his twitter replies. Whether or not he actually put $2M hasn't been confirmed yet.

This bet doesn't make sense because you can just buy $100K Bitcoin options for much much less. And the opposite side of the better, he can just buy 1 BTC when he takes the bet and he will be hedged perfectly.

He did this to generate interest and make people scared of hyperinflation and get people to sell all their assets and buy bitcoin. He most likely is long spot bitcoin and wants to pump bitcoin and sell in the $30-40K range.

Crypto is pumping but one thing you need to realise is that we don't want hyperinflation. If we get hyperinflation then nobody will want your bitcoin. What will happen is going to be riots and you will need guns and food instead of bitcoin.

Hence why that guy on Twitter making the $2M bet is most likely doing it for attention and wants to pump crypto short term so he can sell his bags in the $30-40K range. We don't need hyperinflation to get bitcoin to rally. So far due to the expanding fed balance sheet, risk-on assets are going up again and so is bitcoin.

Topics like this are the reason why instead of developers making things more complex and get people to lose money due to bugs, they should stop and make crypto much more secure.

If you have been around for 5+ years then you are probably on top of security. But how do you expect adoption from the retail market and from newcomers when its this simple to lose money. Look how many emails we all get a day about "Your Metamask is compromised" and many people click the link and get their crypto stolen. Or people who get fake emails from Coinbase saying that their account needs to be verified, they click the phishing link and get everything stolen. Security should be top priority right now if we want crypto to be more mainstream.

Thanks everybody that replied. I actually tried googling the topic but came out with nothing. I did it the old fashion way and just sent everything to a new wallet to be safe.

I think the best way to do this is to limit how much the smart contract can spend, because allowing it to spend all the tokens is a security risk. Either way in the future I will check out those links and revoke any contracts that I signed.

This has been going on for years and Google has not done a thing about it. Its not only for crypto. Its the same with banks and sites like Amazon.

Way too many people google the site and click the first link and sometimes that link is a "paid advertisment" and its usually a phishing site. Google won't do anything about it because thats how they earn their money.

Next time, type in the link in your browser AND bookmark it.

FRC bank hasn’t failed at least yet. They are however the one most likely to get bought out however. The biggest one this week was Credit Suisse and we still have to see what effects this will cause on the markets.

Asia popped up but the real damage can happen when Europe opens and especially the New York session. There was like $17B of bonds which expired worth less and many are going to be holding the bag for that. Even the CDS issuers will be on the hook to cover the losses.

The most important events are the CPI and the FOMC days. Usually FOMC is usually never a surprise but it’s the conference they have right after that might discuss how dovish or hawkish they will be.

Another one that you should start to follow is the unemployment numbers at the beginning of the month. Generally when employment is strong the market should be strong but it’s opposite now. We want higher unemployment so the CPI is less so the FOMC report will cut rates.

Don’t keep large amount of crypto on any hot wallet or exchange.

Get a hardware wallet and keep the seed somewhere safe offline. If you don’t want to get a hardware wallet then you can use MyEtherWallet offline or Electrum if you want to store Bitcoin.

All you will need is a USB key and an old computer that you never use any more. Search this forum for more info and help.

The issue is that many of these banks didn’t hedge or sell their underwater bonds at a loss. And since the fed hiked at such as fast pace, they got deeper and deeper in the whole.

I think when word got out on how the tech sector was going to dry up, they should of started to raise funds then. However all it took was a handful of clients to withdraw at once and all of a sudden they get into this huge mess.

This will be an interesting week. Basically right now many of these regional bank ceo are going to see Warren Buffet and see if he can help them out. Basically what happened in 2008 with Goldman Sachs.

However if you remember correctly, Warren buying Goldman didn’t do much. The stock will crashed another 50% before bottoming many months later. Seems like this is a complete repeat.